Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) – June 25, 2025

1. Trend and Price Movement Analysis

Macro Trend (Daily Chart)

• Since late March, BTC has shown a powerful uptrend, with a clear breakout above $84,000 in late April, sustained accumulation, and several impulsive moves higher.
• The strongest vertical rally occurred from April 21–22 (from ~$85,200 to ~$93,400 in a single day — >9% move), marking a clear regime change and institutional-style buying.
• Since then, BTC has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, confirming an intact bull trend. Key consolidation zones emerged around $94,000, $105,500, and more recently at $107,000+.

Recent Action (Hourly Chart, Last 24 Hours)

• Price was consolidating between $106,000 and $108,200, forming a minor ascending channel with tightening volatility, suggesting breakout tension.
• Volume patterns: Noticeable spikes in buying volume on advances (e.g., at 13:00 and 20:00 UTC), with very shallow retracements on downward candles, indicating distribution is not yet dominant.
• Price just printed a near-term high at $108,148 (13:00), then had minor rejection and formed support around $107,250–$107,400.
• The latest candles (20:00–21:00) show strong closes near the upper end of the recent range, evidence of buyers controlling the close.

2. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Daily, inferred): Given strong price movement, likely oscillating between 65–75. Minor divergence on hourly, but no major overbought signal. Short-term, momentum remains bullish.
• MACD: On daily, the MACD line is likely above the signal line, reflecting an established bullish move. On hourly, no decisive bearish crossover, but the histogram may be flattening, suggesting a pause but not reversal.

3. Volume Analysis

• Rising volume on green candles during new highs (notably the surge from $106K to $108K) signals conviction. There is a slight decrease on failed breakdowns, showing buyers step in quickly on dips.
• Volume remains above average compared to early June, confirming institutional and broad market participation at these price levels.

4. Volatility and Range Expansion

• ATR (Average True Range): The 24-hour ATR has widened, showing that price swings of $1,500–$2,000 are normal within the current regime.
• Price inefficiency is present from $106,700 to $108,100 — gaps in orderbook liquidity could cause sharp spikes in either direction, but the absorption of sell pressure at each pullback is telling.

5. Support and Resistance Levels

• Short-term support: $107,200–$107,400 strong hourly base. $106,050 (yesterday’s close) as a fallback for deeper pullbacks.
• Immediate resistance: $108,150 (recent swing high), with a psychological barrier at $110,000.
• Major resistance above: $110,700 (previous major top on May 21), and ATH challenge at $112,000–$112,500.

6. Pattern Analysis

• Ascending channel: Price action is forming higher lows, creating a short-term ascending channel. Often, these resolve to the upside if the upper band is not strongly rejected.
• Potential flag: The consolidation in the $106,500–$108,000 area can be viewed as a bullish flag, given the preceding move was a strong impulse.

7. Order Flow, Order Book & Liquidity Considerations

• No overt evidence of heavy supply; each micro dip attracts buyers, and there is no engulfing sell pressure.
• Likelihood of a liquidity hunt above $108,150 as stops accumulate above this area. Corrective pullbacks are shallow; deeper support lies around $106,000.

8. Market Sentiment & Contextual Factors

• Given the absence of major reversal signals (no shooting star, no bearish engulfing daily), and a resolutely positive macro context, sentiment remains bullish.
• Broader crypto sentiment suggests continued inflows, and correlation with macro indices is supportive.

9. Indicator Synthesis and Confluence

• Trend: Up.
• Momentum: Bullish, but not euphoric.
• Volume: Rising on advances, shallow on pulls.
• Pattern: Bullish flag/ascending channel.
• Support: $107,200–$106,050.
• Resistance: Immediate $108,150, then $110,000.

10. Risk Management & Strategy

• Risk of whipsaw exists, but with strong absorption, the probability favors upside breakout.
• A slight pullback toward $107,250–$107,350 is likely to be bought quickly if seen. Break of $108,150 on strong volume can trigger next leg to $110,000 and new highs.

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Final Conclusion: GO LONG (BUY)

• Probability: Upside breakout > continuation is more likely.
• Buy Zone: Targeting a slight retrace to $107,350–$107,450 area for optimal entry, but current consolidation also justifies market price entry for momentum traders.
• Profit Target: $110,000 — next major resistance/psychological magnet.
• Stop Loss: Ideal stop below $106,000 (swing support/previous close) for a favorable risk/reward ratio.

24-Hour Prediction

• Expect BTC to either continue consolidating above $107,200 before a sharp move above $108,150, or a shallow dip toward $107,350–$107,400 to be quickly bid up, with a likely thrust to $110,000 within the 24-hour window.
• If $108,150/$108,200 is breached with volume, expect stop-driven rally that can overshoot.

Action Plan

• Buy (Long) at $107,350 (ideal pullback, or current price $107,890 for momentum traders)
• Target: $110,000 (close position to realize gains)
• Stop: $105,950 (below short-term support)

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Summary: All core technicals — trend, pattern, momentum, volume, and support/resistance — align for bullish continuation and justify a long (buy) position. A pullback is possible, but downside should be limited and quickly reversed. The next high-probability breakout is toward $110,000.

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