Sell the Rip: BTC’s Bear-Flag Breakdown Targets 91k Amid Elevated ATR and Heavy Downtrend

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis and 24-hour trading plan for BTC/USD

1. Market regime and structure at a glance

• Regime: Strong bearish trend with accelerating momentum since early October’s highs (~125k) and a pronounced leg down in November. Market is in a markdown/redistribution phase after repeated failed bounces.
• Structure: Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the daily and 4H/1H. The last 48 hours printed a bear-flag consolidation near 95–96k that broke lower into the 93k handle. Today’s intraday action shows successive support breaches (95k, 94.4k, 94k) and a close near the lows (~93.4k), confirming control by sellers.
• Contextual volume: The largest volumes lately accompany down days (Nov 10 and Nov 14 especially), typical of distribution and forced selling. Rallies have been on lighter volume and have failed at prior supply zones.

2. Multi-timeframe trend analysis

• Daily trend: Strongly down. Price is well below the 20/50/100-day MAs (est. 20D ~105–106k, 50D ~111–113k; both sloping down). This separation shows a stretched trend but with no daily reversal signal yet.
• 4H/1H trend: Down with clean bear-channel characteristics. Each intraday bounce stalls below prior swing highs; sellers reassert around 95–96.5k. Today’s lower-high sequence: 96.5k → 95.6k → 95.0k → straight-line break to 93.4k.
• ADX/DI (trend strength): Daily ADX likely >25 with -DI dominant. That supports trend-following shorts over countertrend longs.

3. Momentum studies (daily and intraday)

• RSI daily: Depressed, near the low-30s to high-20s region, consistent with sustained bearish pressure; may flirt with oversold but no bullish reversal structure. Oversold conditions in trends can persist.
• RSI 1H: Oscillating in bear regime (20–50). A minor positive divergence attempt appeared around the 18:00–21:00 UTC window, but was invalidated by fresh lows into 93.4k. Until RSI reclaims a midline (50) and holds, momentum favors further downside or sell-the-rip behavior.
• MACD daily: Below zero and under signal line with expanding negative histogram in November; still bearish. 1H MACD shows brief flattening during micro pauses, but each rally attempt rolls over before signal cross sustainability.
• Stochastic (1H/4H): Frequently pinned to oversold during trend moves, briefly resetting on bounces then rolling back down—typical of a persistent downtrend.

4. Volatility and range analysis

• ATR (14D) estimate: Elevated, roughly 4–5k. This suggests a typical daily swing of ~3–5%. The 24-hour expected move is wide enough to reach either 91–92k on continued selling or 95–96k on a reaction bounce before resumption.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price has been hugging or running outside the lower band. This reflects downside momentum. Riding the band is common in strong trends—touching the lower band is not by itself a buy signal.
• Keltner Channels/Donchian: Price is persistently at or beyond lower envelopes; Donchian 20-day lower bands are being pressed, indicating ongoing breakout conditions to the downside.

5. Liquidity, support/resistance, and volume profile context

• Key broken supports now turned resistance: 95.0k, 94.4k (11/15 pivot), 96.5k (intraday swing and Fib confluence). Expect supply stacking above 94–95k.
• Immediate supports: 93.0–93.3k (today’s low zone 93.38k), 92.0–92.4k (round and prior minor pauses), 90.0k (psychological big figure, likely liquidity magnet if 92k gives). Below 90k, liquidity thins with potential air pockets.
• Volume character: Heaviest volume spikes occurred on down candles (Nov 10, Nov 14). OBV slope is negative. That distribution suggests rallies are for selling, not for accumulation—until proven otherwise.

6. Intraday tape and pattern read (today)

• Session opened with a drift lower from 95–96k, carved a bear-flag between 95.6k and 94.8k, then impulsively broke down around 15:00–16:00 UTC to 94k and then to 93.4k into the close.
• The breakdown candle was wide-bodied and high-volume, followed by weak bounce attempts that failed to reclaim 94.4–94.8k. That “break, retest, fail” behavior favors selling rallies into the underside of broken support.
• VWAP (session): Price has traded below session VWAP for much of the day, with VWAP acting as dynamic resistance. Until price sustains above VWAP and above the post-breakdown base, short setups are favored.

7. Fibonacci and measured levels

• From the Nov 9–10 swing high (~106.5k) to current lows (~93.4k):
  • 23.6% retracement ~96.5k (today’s morning high tagged that neighborhood and failed).
  • 38.2% retracement ~98.8k (well above; unlikely in next 24h without a regime change).
• From the micro breakdown today (95.6k → 93.4k), a 50–61.8% reaction bounce points to 94.5–95.0k as a prime short-supply zone.

8. Pivot points (classic, derived from 11/15 daily H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 95,566
• R1 ≈ 96,712
• S1 ≈ 94,404
• R2 ≈ 97,874
• S2 ≈ 93,258
• Current price (~93.4k) is around S2. Closing near S2 after a trend day commonly leads to either a modest mean-revert to S1 that fails, or a continuation day that probes the next lower liquidity pocket (92k → 90k).

9. Ichimoku, Parabolic SAR, Heikin-Ashi

• Ichimoku (daily): Price well below a descending cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; Chikou below price. Full bearish stack consistent with trend continuation.
• Parabolic SAR (daily): Dots above price in a clean series; no flip yet.
• Heikin-Ashi (daily): Multiple consecutive bearish candles with lower highs and often no upper wicks—momentum confirmation.

10. Trend channels and lines

• A descending channel from ~106k peaks to current levels has a midline around 95k and lower boundary near 92k for the coming session. Price is riding the lower half of the channel—continuation bias until a clear reclaim of the midline (>95k) occurs.

11. Wyckoff/Elliott wave framing

• Wyckoff: Distribution in October, markdown in late Oct/early Nov, a failed attempt at re-accumulation into mid-Nov, now likely in re-distribution. Lower highs around 111k → 106k → 96.5k reinforce markdown continuation.
• Elliott wave (heuristic): The current leg behaves like an impulsive wave (3/C) with shallow bounces and strong pushes down. A measured extension favors another test of 92k then potentially 90k before a larger corrective rally.

12. Risk events and microstructure notes

• Weekend-to-Asia session transition often amplifies moves when liquidity is thinner. If Asia opens heavy, the path of least resistance is lower into 92k/90k.
• If funding and positioning are stretched short, a knee-jerk short-covering pop to 94.5–95k can appear. That bounce is likely to meet supply given the broader backdrop.

13. 24-hour scenario mapping (with indicative odds)

• Base case (bearish continuation, ~55–60%): Sell rallies toward 94.5–95.0k fail; price explores 92.5k then 91–90.5k. End-of-window settlement in the 91–92.5k band.
• Secondary case (reaction bounce then fade, ~25–30%): Squeeze to 95.0–96.0k (anchored VWAP/fib area), followed by renewed selling back beneath 94k.
• Low-probability bullish reversal (~10–15%): Strong reclaim of 96.7k (R1 vicinity) with volume, flipping market structure; would open 98.8k (38.2% Fib) but currently not supported by trend/momentum.

14. Trade plan and execution

• Bias: Sell (short) the rip into former support turned resistance.
• Optimal entry (limit short): 94,250–94,600 zone. This aligns with 50–61.8% retrace of today’s breakdown, underside retest of broken support, and local supply. I will specify 94,250 for precision.
• Take-profit objective (24h): 91,000 (round-number liquidity and near projected channel lower boundary/ATR potential). Secondary scale-out could occur around 92,200 if you ladder, but our main TP is 91,000.
• Protective stop (discipline, not part of the output fields but recommended): 96,600–96,800 (above R1 and above today’s 96.5k failure). That keeps the reward:risk favorable (~3.25k vs ~2.35k).
• Alternative momentum entry (if no bounce): If 93,000 breaks with impulse and retests fail, a breakout short can be taken with a tighter stop above 93.8–94.0k; target still 91k. However, the preferred setup remains selling the bounce.

15. Confluence checklist

• Trend: Bearish on all active timeframes
• Momentum: Bearish (RSI/MACD) with only weak, failed divergences
• Volatility: Elevated ATR supports a 2–4k continuation move within 24h
• Levels: 94.4–95k broken and likely to cap rallies; 92k and 90k are natural magnets
• Pivots: Price near S2; typical continuation or at best a fade off S1 on bounce
• Volume: Downside moves on higher volume; rallies on lighter volume
• Overlays: Below all key MAs and beneath Ichimoku cloud; BB lower band ride persists
• Pattern: Bear flag breakdown with follow-through

Bottom line: Expect a relief bounce to supply (94.2–94.6k) to be sold, with downside extension toward 91k in the next 24 hours unless the market forcefully reclaims and holds above 96.7k.