Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL) on 2025-06-12

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1. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term (4 Months):
  • AAPL peaked above $245 in February, transitioned into a major downtrend by March, with significant support breaking at $230, $220, and then dramatic capitulation in early April, dropping to sub-$180 intraday.
  • Since the April lows, price attempted a series of recoveries, but each rally has made lower highs ($212.5 in May vs $225+ earlier). Recent attempts to recover into early June have stalled below $204, making the $202-$204 range immediate resistance.
  • The closing price of $198.78 marks both a local low and an acceleration of recent short-term down pressure.

2. Volume Profile

• High volume spikes clearly marked the capitulation in early April, increasing up to 184M shares on the wicked drop. The recovery volume waned and has not returned to those levels even on attempts to break above $210, suggesting waning bullish conviction as price receded.
• Recent sessions (early June) have seen volume rise on red candles, with $198.78 closing on 60M+ shares—the strongest selling in over a week, suggesting distribution.

3. Moving Averages (MA):

• 50-day SMA (estimate): Trending below $204 and sloping downward.
• 21-day EMA (estimate): Rolling over around $201 and acting as dynamic resistance.
• Price consistently below both short and medium MAs, reinforcing the bearish short-term bias.

4. Relative Strength Index (RSI):

• Calculating from recent price action (June) with closes from $204 to $198:
  • RSI is likely sitting in the 36–42 range, near oversold but not extremely so, supporting room for a further drop before a reversal.

5. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

• MACD histogram trending negative. Signal lines have crossed to the downside with increasing spread since June 5th, with momentum building toward bearish territory after another failed rally at $204/$203.

6. Bollinger Bands:

• On the latest hourly and daily candles, price has pierced or hugged the lower band, but lacking evidence of a forceful reversal. During the prior downtrends (April, May), such pierces preceded deeper plunges rather than immediate bounces, implying risk to the downside persists.

7. Support and Resistance Levels:

• Immediate support now: $198.50 (recent low)
• Next significant supports: $197.50, $195.25 (local pivots, gap fill zones from rally low), and further out, daily swing low at $194.25.
• Resistance: $200.50–$201 (round number, prior micro-consolidation), $202.50/204 (overlapping with EMA and recent failed rally point).

8. Price Action & Candlestick Patterns:

• Sequential lower highs, lower lows since the start of June, with bear flags and failed rallies into resistance. The price closed the last full session with a wide-bodied red candle—a signal of commitment by sellers.
• Intraday action (June 11-12 sessions) showed failed attempts to reclaim $200, with each uptick immediately sold-off—classic distribution pattern.

9. Fibonaci Retracement (Since April Bounce):

• The move from April low ($172) to the May high ($213.5) gives principal retracement levels:
  • 23.6%: $184.5
  • 38.2%: $190.9
  • 50%: $193.0
  • 61.8%: $195.1
• As price approaches $195, selling pressure may abate for a reflexive bounce. However, the risk remains for deeper correction if this level breaks.

10. Order Flow and Tape Reading:

• Consistent absence of aggressive buyers near $199, heavy offers on every approach to $201, reinforcing negative bias.

11. Sentiment & Market Positioning:

• The break below $200, with sellers controlling, points to a possible shakeout of remaining longs and re-engagement of short-term bearish traders.

12. Intraday Structure / Volatility:

• Hourly ranges are shrinking, denoting compression phase, but likely precursor to volatility expansion—direction currently favored to the downside.

13. Elliott Wave Perspective:

• Mapping from May to June: potential ABC correction—now potentially in the C-wave leg lower, targeting significant support before a possible cycle complete.

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Synthesis & Trade Plan

Combining all signals—downside momentum, failed recoveries, rejection at resistance, volume selling, and breakdown below both major MAs—suggests a high-probability short opportunity. Immediate breakdown risk toward $195.25 and $193.00 (gap fill & mid-April pivot lows) as next target zones, before any reflexive bounce.

Risk is defined: move above $201.50 invalidates the short thesis in the near term (stop management advised above micro-range resistance).