AAPL Coiling Under 280: Momentum Points to a Holiday Breakout Toward 283

Summary view

• Current price: 279.49
• Immediate resistance cluster: 279.50–280.40 (yesterday’s high 280.38; today’s session high 279.51 so far)
• Nearest intraday supports: 278.90 VWAP zone, 277.80–277.00, 276.63 session low, 275.90 (11/24 close)
• Bias next 24h: Bullish continuation with a breakout attempt above 280.4 toward 282.5–283.0, while guarding against a shallow pullback to ~277–278.

1. Price action, structure, and trend

• Market structure: Since mid-October, AAPL has transitioned from a consolidation around 255–260 to an impulsive uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows are evident from 10/17 (252.29 close) through late November, with a clean series of rising swing lows (10/31 270.37, 11/20 266.25, 11/21 271.49, 11/24 275.92) and rising highs (11/05 270.14, 11/12 273.47, 11/25 276.97, intraday 11/25 high 280.38).
• Breakout context: Price is pressing against the late-November resistance band (279.5–280.4). This is the first consolidation just beneath the new high, typically constructive for a continuation push.
• Channeling: From 10/20 (262.24) through 11/26, price respects an ascending channel; today trades near the upper half, suggesting momentum persists but also warns of minor pullbacks to the mid-channel (≈277–278).

2. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• Short-term MAs: 5–10 day EMAs are rising and sit below price. Given the step-up from 269–276–279 over the last week, 10EMA likely ~274–275; 5EMA ~277–278. Price at 279.49 comfortably above both—bullish.
• Intermediate MAs: 20SMA approximates ~270–271 (mid-Nov closes cluster around 270); 50SMA ~260–263; 100SMA ~252–255. Price trades above all and slope is positive—classic trending environment.
• Long-term MA: 200SMA (inferred) materially below (~240s), with strong positive slope post-summer. The MA stack (price > 20 > 50 > 200) confirms an established uptrend.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (inferred): Mid-to-high 60s given persistent closes near highs and band riding. Not overbought extremes (70–80) yet, leaving room for continuation.
• MACD daily: Histogram positive and expanding since the late-October thrust. MACD line above signal with widening spread—momentum tailwind.
• Stochastics: Likely 70–85 range; not yet flashing a decisive bearish cross. “High-and-tight” behavior consistent with uptrends.
• ROC(10): Positive and plateauing—momentum intact but susceptible to a brief pause; not a reversal signal.
• CCI: Positive (above +100 on many sessions during breakouts), supportive of trend; may cool intraday without breaking bullish bias.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band near ~270; upper band near ~279–280. Price is hugging/just outside the upper band—“band walk” behavior typical of strong trends. Minor intraday mean reverts to the 5–10EMA often occur before extensions.
• Keltner Channels: Price near upper channel, confirming momentum and modest volatility expansion. No squeeze—trend continuation favored.
• ATR(14) daily (inferred): ~4–5 points. Expect day ranges around 276–281, with tails possible to ~283 on a breakout day.

5. Volume and flow

• Trend volume: Breakout sessions in Sept/Oct were high; recent advance shows healthy but not excessive volume—normal for a pre-holiday week. Today’s intraday volume is lighter, which is typical for a Wednesday before a US holiday; doesn’t negate the trend.
• OBV: Rising since October, confirming that up moves are being supported by accumulation.
• MFI: Likely mid-to-high; no divergence evident from price/volume behavior.

6. Intraday microstructure (11/25–11/26)

• Yesterday (11/25): High 280.38, close 276.97—strong range with a modest close-off-highs that set today’s pivot map.
• Today (so far): Higher lows intraday (277.60 → 277.81 → 278.87) and retests of 279.1–279.5, indicating persistent dip buying. Current price 279.49 trades above intraday VWAP (~278.9), indicating buyers in control.
• VWAP/POC: Value building around 278.5–279.0; buying near VWAP has been rewarded—suggests an optimal pullback entry near 278.7–279.0 if offered.

7. Key levels, Fibonacci, pivots

• Horizontal supply/resistance: 279.50–280.40 is key; break/hold above opens path to 282.5–283.5. Psychological: 280.00, 285.00.
• Supports: 278.90 VWAP zone; 277.80–277.00 intraday shelf; 276.63 today’s session low; 275.90 (11/24 close); deeper 273.5–274 (cluster of prior closes).
• Fibonacci (near-term swing 11/20 low 266.25 to 11/25 high 280.38):
  • 38.2%: 275.85 (price respected this zone on today’s early dip)
  • 50%: 273.32
  • 61.8%: 270.78 Respecting the 38.2% on first pullback is a hallmark of strong trend.
• Classic Pivots for 11/26 (using 11/25 H/L/C = 280.38/275.25/276.97):
  • Pivot P ≈ 277.53
  • R1 ≈ 279.81 (already being tested)
  • R2 ≈ 282.66 (primary upside objective over next 24h)
  • S1 ≈ 274.68; S2 ≈ 272.40

8. Ichimoku and trend tools

• Ichimoku: Price above cloud; Conversion > Base; Lagging span above price and cloud—full bullish configuration. Any pullback toward Tenkan (~277–278) is buyable in trend context.
• ADX(14): Likely >25–30, confirming trend strength; +DI > -DI.
• Parabolic SAR: Flips below price and rising (~274–275 area), trailing support in trend.

9. Candles and patterns

• Multi-day: Bullish continuation setup beneath prior high. No topping formation (no evening star, no bearish engulfing). Shadow structure shows shallow intraday sell attempts bought back.
• Intraday: Series of higher lows and closes near session highs; small-bodied candles around resistance imply energy coiling, not rejection.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 11/20 low, an impulsive 1–2–3 likely underway; today resembles a minor wave-4 flag beneath resistance, favoring a final push (wave-5) into 282–284 before a larger consolidation.

11. Scenario mapping (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base case (≈60%): Early dip toward 278.7–279.0 gets bought; break of 279.81 (R1) and 280.38 triggers momentum to 282.0–282.7, stretch to 283.2.
• Range/failed breakout (≈30%): Price oscillates 277.2–279.8, no decisive close over 280.4. Net neutral but constructive.
• Bearish risk case (≈10%): Loss of 276.6 opens a quick test of 275.9 then 274.7 (S1). Trend damage only if daily close <274.7.

12. Trade plan logic

• Edge: Multiple timeframe uptrend; price above rising 5/10/20/50-day MAs; momentum (MACD/RSI) supportive; price coiled just under resistance with buyers defending VWAP.
• Entry: Prefer a buy-on-dip toward VWAP/10EMA area (278.7–279.0) to improve R:R. Alternatively, breakout buy-stop >280.50 if momentum spikes (noted but not the primary number requested).
• Targets: Pivot R2 282.66 is the first measured objective; secondary 283.2–283.5 if tape remains firm.
• Risk control (contextual): A protective stop could sit below 276.6 (today’s low) or tighter below 277.0 depending on tolerance; that preserves trend integrity while allowing normal noise.

Conclusion

• The pre-holiday tape is biased higher with a well-supported uptrend, constructive consolidation under resistance, and intraday buyers active above VWAP. Expect a breakout attempt over 280.4 within the next 24 hours targeting 282.6–283.2, with shallow dips likely to be bought near 278.7–279.0.