AAPL: Buy the Pivot, Ride the Rotation to R1 (274–275)

Summary view

• Bias next session: Moderately bullish within a well-defined 266–276 range; expect a buy-the-dip profile toward the daily pivot, then a push toward first resistance.
• Expected move (1-day): ±3.8–4.5 points (ATR14 proxy). Path of least resistance is a grind higher toward 273–275 if 270 holds on early dip.

Trend and market structure

• Primary trend (3–4 months): Up since September breakout from the 245–255 band into the 260s–270s; price remains well above longer MAs, indicating intact primary uptrend.
• Intermediate trend (4–6 weeks): Range-bound consolidation 266–276 after the Oct 31 peak (~277.3). Multiple rejections near 275–277, multiple supports around 266–267.
• Short-term structure (last 5–10 sessions): Pullback to 266.25 on Nov 20 with a strong reversal on Nov 21 closing 271.49 (green day, above-average volume), creating a potential double-bottom at 265.9–266.3 and a higher close vs prior day. Micro HH/HL structure emerging intraday.

Key levels (confluence driven)

• Support: 266.0–267.0 (double-bottom and volume shelf), 269.2–270.2 (daily pivot zone, prior intraday balance), 262.5 (S2 classical pivot), 258–259 (older range node).
• Resistance: 272.8–273.5 (recent supply and 61.8% retrace), 274.6–275.3 (R1/pin risk/round strike gravity), 276.7–277.3 (swing high cluster).

Moving averages (approximate)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 270.07 (computed from last 20 closes). Close 271.49 > 20SMA: slight bullish edge; price near mean suggests room to upper band before overextension.
• 50-day SMA (estimate) ≈ 258–260. Price well above: medium-term uptrend intact.
• 200-day SMA (estimate) ≈ low- to mid-240s. Strongly above: long-term trend positive.
• Slope: 20SMA flattening; 50/200 rising. Mean-reversion buyers active near 270 handle.

Momentum

• RSI(14) (approx): neutral-to-positive, ~52–55 after a sharp down-up sequence; far from overbought, room to run into mid-60s on a 273–275 push.
• MACD(12,26,9): Histogram curling up from negative to near-zero; likely signal cross up if follow-through >272. Momentum inflection supportive of upside continuation.
• Stochastics: Recycled from mid/low to mid zone; no overbought warnings yet.

Volatility/Range

• ATR(14) daily: ~3.8–4.5. Implies typical next-session range around ±1.4–1.7% of price; sets expectations: a move toward 273–275 is feasible without requiring outsized volatility.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midband ~270.1; estimated upper band ~275.4, lower ~264.7. Price just above midband with upside room to the upper band.
• Keltner/BB squeeze: No tight squeeze; regime is orderly range-trend mix—good for pivot-to-R1 rotations.

Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Nov 21 volume 58.8M > recent average: accumulation off support. That increases confidence the 266–267 shelf is defended.
• Volume-by-price: Heaviest trading built between 268–272 in November—act as magnet. Friday’s close inside this node supports mean-reversion dips to ~270 followed by re-expansion upward.
• Daily VWAP (Nov 21) likely ~271.8; close slightly below suggests mild late-day fade but not distribution (range held). Reclaiming >272.0 quickly would shift intraday flows positive.

Fibonacci mapping (recent swing)

• Swing: High 277.32 (Oct 31) → Low 266.25 (Nov 20), Δ = 11.07.
• Key retraces from 266.25: 38.2% = 270.48; 50% = 271.79; 61.8% = 273.01; 78.6% ≈ 274.94.
• Current 271.49 sits just under 50% retrace; Nov 21 high 273.33 nudged above 61.8%. A sustained hold above 271.8 opens a retest of 273.0–275.0 (61.8–78.6% zone).

Classical pivots (using Nov 21 H/L/C = 273.33/265.67/271.49)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = 270.16.
• R1 = 274.66; R2 = 277.82.
• S1 = 267.00; S2 = 262.50.
• Trade map: Buy-the-dip at P (≈270.2) targeting R1 (≈274.7). Invalidation on decisive break below S1 (≈267).

Candles and patterns

• Nov 20 printed a long lower-tail reaction near 266 (hammer-like). Nov 21 follow-through green candle with higher close confirms a 2-day bullish reversal off support.
• Not a full bullish engulfing of Nov 20 range, but solid breadth and volume add credibility to the reversal.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud (given sustained levels >260 after Sept lift), Tenkan likely near 268–269, Kijun near ~270. A close above Kijun with Chikou above price is constructive; a push through 272–273 would steepen Tenkan slope upward.

DMI/ADX (qualitative)

• ADX subdued (range market), +DI curling above −DI post-reversal—consistent with a near-term bullish rotation inside the range.

Mean reversion vs momentum blend

• Mean reversion: Favor buying near the 270 pivot/20SMA with stops below 266 shelf.
• Momentum: Confirmation trigger through 272.5–273 unlocks a run to 274.7–275.3. Given Friday’s strong breadth, early-session momentum continuation is plausible if dip demand appears at/above 270.

Intraday microstructure (Nov 21 hourly)

• Progression: 270.98 → 272.61 → pullback 271.37 → close 271.49. Stable acceptance above 271 after testing 273.3 suggests balanced conditions; thin air above 273 into 275 offers a quick expansion zone if buyers press.

Risk considerations

• Downside: A decisive break and hold below 269.2 would test S1 267. Below 266 loses the double-bottom and reopens 262.5.
• Upside: First objective R1 274.66; stretch to 275.2–276.0 if tape is strong.
• R:R using a 270.2 entry: target 274.7 (+4.5); invalidation under 266 (−4.2) ≈ 1.07x—improves to >1.3x if scaling adds on reclaim of 272.5 toward 275.3.

Event/seasonality context

• No specific event catalysts in the provided data; typical pre-holiday seasonality tilts mildly bullish, but the trade is primarily technical.

Next 24 hours outlook

• Markets are closed over the weekend; into the next trading session expect: early dip toward 270.0–270.5 (pivot/20SMA), buyers to defend, then a rotation to 272.8–274.7. Probability-weighted path: 60% bullish (test R1), 25% sideways (270–272 chop), 15% bearish (loss of 269 and test 267).

Plan

• Tactic: Buy-the-dip limit near pivot. If missed, momentum add-on on sustained prints >272.5 targeting 274.6–275.3.
• Invalidation (for risk framing, not required by order): sustained trade <266.

Conclusion

• Confluence across 20SMA, pivot math, double-bottom support, improving momentum, and constructive volume favors a tactical long from ~270 with take-profit into R1/upper Fib cluster around 274.6–275.0.