AAPL: Buy the Dip Near 230 for a Push Toward 236–237 as Bull Flag Coils Under 235

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bullish continuation within an uptrend; expect range 229–235 with a topside test toward 236–237 if resistance breaks.
• Key levels: S2 226.80, S1 229.19, Pivot 231.74, R1 234.13, R2 236.68. Resistance overhead near 235.0–235.1 from recent swing high; support 229.5–230.0, deeper 226.7–227.2.
• Trade idea (24h swing): Buy the dip near 230.2 (limit). Target 236.7 (near R2 / recent supply). Risk to 226.7 (38.2% retrace zone), yielding ~2.2:1 R:R.

Data hygiene and scope

• Dataset: Daily OHLCV from 2025-04-21 to 2025-08-15 and 1-hour (8/15). Current price: 231.59 (2025-08-16 12:21 UTC).
• Outliers: Hourly prints 20:00–22:00 on 8/15 show extreme spikes (low 215.16, high 242.35) with zero volume—likely bad ticks/after-hours anomalies; excluded from signal generation.

1. Trend and structure (top-down)

• Primary trend (since early Aug): Uptrend. Price broke out decisively above the multi-week 214–215 supply zone on 8/6 with heavy volume (108M), followed by follow-through to 229–235 with further volume expansion (8/8: 114M). This marks a regime change from June–July range (circa 200–214) to an advancing trend.
• Secondary trend (last 5 sessions): Sideways-to-slight pullback consolidation between 229.3 and 235.1 after the 8/13 push to 235. This resembles a bull flag/mini congestion beneath resistance.
• Market structure: Series of higher highs and higher lows since 8/6. The latest higher low sits at 229.34 (8/15). Prior support ledge: 227.18 (8/11). Break of 227 would only signify deeper pullback, not necessarily trend reversal while >222–223.

2. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): 215.8 (computed from 7/18–8/14). Spot at 231.6 is ~7.3% above—healthy momentum yet not egregiously extended.
• 10-day SMA (approx): 219–222 (last 10 closes surged post-breakout). Price > 10/20 SMA with both rising—classic bullish alignment.
• 50-day SMA (est): ~209–210 (weighted by June–July closes ~200–214). Price is well above the 50SMA; the 20>50 positive slope confirms an intermediate uptrend.
• Interpretation: Bullish trend regime. Distance to MAs suggests room for mean reversion dips, but structure favors buying pullbacks rather than fading strength.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (computed from 7/28–8/15 changes): ~68. Near, but not in, overbought; three-session cooling from 233.33 to 231.59 eased froth. This setup often precedes continuation after a brief consolidation if RSI holds >55–60.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Post-breakout, %K/%D likely cycled from overbought and is curling toward mid- to high-70s. A fresh bullish cross from mid-zone would support a push through 235.
• ROC(10): Strongly positive post-8/6; flattening recently—consistent with consolidation, not reversal.
• Interpretation: Momentum remains positive; mild cooling offers a favorable buy-the-dip backdrop.

4. Trend strength

• ADX(14) (qualitative): Likely >25 following the August surge and sustained higher highs/lows. +DI above –DI. Trend strength is present; the recent lateral action usually compresses ADX before the next directional expansion, typically in the direction of the prior impulse (up).

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~4.6 based on recent daily ranges (4.3–4.9). Expect intraday swings of ±2.3 from VWAP common.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~215.8; estimated upper ~233.5–234.0; lower ~197.5–198. Price closed just inside/near the upper band after poking above earlier—classic pause within an up move. Consolidation near the top band tends to resolve higher if no sharp rejection occurs.

6. Volume and accumulation

• Volume expansion on up days: 8/6 (108M), 8/7 (90M), 8/8 (114M) corroborate breakout demand. Pullback days since 8/11 occurred on lower volume (56–70M), a constructive sign of shallow supply.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since 8/6; no distribution signature evident in the past three sessions.
• Interpretation: Accumulation-dominant tape; buyers assertive on expansions, sellers tentative on dips.

7. Price patterns

• Bull flag/consolidation: From 8/13 high (235.0) through 8/15 low (229.3), a tight downward-sloping channel formed, holding above the 38.2% retrace (see Fib). Flags under resistance often precede breakouts once overhead supply is absorbed.
• Breakout base: June–July formed a platform around 200–214; the 8/6 breakout cleared it cleanly, implying measured-move potential beyond 235 over coming weeks. For the 24-hour horizon, tactical push to mid-236s–237s is reasonable.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Anchor: 8/6 close 213.25 to 8/13 high 235.00 (range 21.75).
  • 38.2%: 226.69
  • 50%: 224.13
  • 61.8%: 221.79
• Price held 227.18 (8/11) and 229.34 (8/15), squarely above 38.2%. Shallow retracements in strong trends are bullish. As long as candles hold above 226.7–227.2, the impulse structure remains intact.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price > Tenkan and > Kijun; cloud (Senkou span) is below price and rising. Tenkan likely around high 210s/low 220s; Kijun mid-teens (~215). No overextension signal (Chikou > price). Net: Bullish trending state; pullbacks to Tenkan tend to be bought.

10. MACD

• MACD(12,26): Positive and above zero post-8/6 surge; histogram likely contracted over the last three sessions, signaling momentum pause. No bearish cross evident on dailies yet. A fresh histogram uptick on a 235 break would confirm renewed upside energy.

11. Support/resistance and levels confluence

• Resistance: 235.0–235.1 (swing high 8/13; also near BB upper edge), then 236.7 (classic R2 pivot), 237.5–239.0 (round/extension zone; ATR-based stretch).
• Support: 231.7 pivot (P) and 230.0–230.5 round/flag bottom, then 229.2 (S1) and 227.2–226.7 (swing/38.2% Fib). Stronger shelf 224–225.
• Confluence highlight: R2 236.68 aligns with a natural profit-taking level and projected measured flag break in a one-session horizon.

12. Classical pivots (derived from 8/15 H=234.28, L=229.34, C=231.59)

• Pivot (P) = 231.74
• R1 = 234.13
• R2 = 236.68
• S1 = 229.19
• S2 = 226.80
• Playbook: Above P favors tests of R1/R2; first dip to S1 is typically bought in uptrends barring news shocks.

13. Intraday (8/15) microstructure

• Real hours (13:30–19:30 UTC) showed steady bids reclaiming 231.36–231.65 into the close. No heavy sell program into the bell; supports the accumulation narrative.
• The zero-volume spikes later are ignored as artifacts and not reflective of tradable liquidity.

14. Gaps and mean reversion

• Runaway gap 8/6 (202.92 prior close to 205.59 intraday low, close 213.25) remains widely open—typical of trend acceleration. In the next 24 hours that gap is unlikely to be targeted absent a shock.
• Short-term mean reversion would gravitate toward 230–232 (near pivot and Friday’s VWAP region), consistent with a buy-the-dip setup.

15. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early test of 230–232 pivot zone, buyers defend S1 229.2–230.2, push to R1 234.1 and probe 235; partial close above 234 likely.
• Bull extension (30%): Clean break and 30–60 min hold above 235.1 triggers momentum to R2 236.7 with potential overshoot to 237.5–239 (1x ATR above R2) before late-day consolidation.
• Bear alternative (10%): Failure at pivot, decisive break below 229.2 opens a quick flush to 227.2–226.7. Expect dip buyers there; sustained trade below 226.7 would postpone the bullish swing until a higher-timeframe pullback completes.

16. Risk management cues

• Stop region for the long idea: 226.7–226.9 (below Fib 38.2%/S2 and the 8/11 swing), preserving trend integrity while avoiding whipsaw.
• Position sizing: Calibrate to ATR; a 3.5–4.0 point stop versus a 6.5–7.0 point target gives ~1.8–2.2 R:R; adjust units accordingly.

17. Synthesis and decision

• Multiple tools align: Uptrend (MAs), positive but cooled momentum (RSI ~68), constructive volume profile (up-volume expansion, down-volume contraction), shallow Fib retrace held, price hovering near pivot with overhead resistance at 235. This favors a tactical long on a controlled dip, aiming for R2/flag breakout.
• Therefore: Buy-the-dip setup with target 236.7 within the next session.

18. Path to target

• Optimal entry: 230.2 limit in the opening-to-midday liquidity window.
• Confirmation: Reclaim pivot 231.7 and clear R1 234.1; reduce risk on 233.5 reclaim; scale/hold for 236.7 into afternoon strength.

Note: No guarantee. Watch for macro/stock-specific headlines that can override technicals (e.g., product news, regulatory, macro data). If an adverse catalyst hits, respect the 226.7 invalidation.