Tradzar
Apple Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI
AAPL Reclaims the 78.6% Retracement: Breakout Attempt Toward 284 After a V-Shaped Reversal
Market context (what the tape is saying)
Current price: 279.79 (intra-day 2026-02-06)
From the daily series, AAPL put in a sharp drawdown from the late-Oct/early-Dec highs (~288.6) into a capitulation low on 2026-01-20 (low ~243.42), then staged a strong V-shaped recovery:
- 2026-01-20 close 246.70 → 2026-02-02 close 270.01 (impulse leg)
- 2026-02-04 close 276.49 (continuation)
- 2026-02-06 trading ~279.79 (attempting to regain late-2025 range)
This is a classic “selloff → base → trend reversal” structure with accelerating momentum into early February.
1) Trend & moving-average regime (multi-timeframe)
Daily structure
- Higher highs & higher lows since 01/20 (243.4 low) confirms a short-term uptrend.
- Price has reclaimed and is now extending above the late-Jan consolidation (~255–260).
Practical MA read (inference from price path)
Even without explicit MA values, the price action strongly implies:
- 20-day MA has likely turned up (given persistent closes rising from ~255 to ~279).
- 50-day MA is likely being challenged/reclaimed after the January selloff.
Implication: trend regime has shifted from “bear correction” to “bull recovery.” In this regime, the higher-probability trade is to buy pullbacks rather than fade strength—unless price is hitting major resistance with exhaustion.
2) Momentum (RSI / rate-of-change / thrust)
The move from ~246.7 (01/20 close) to ~279.8 is roughly +13.4% in ~13 trading sessions—this is a momentum thrust.
- Thrusts like this often push RSI toward 65–75 (overbought but bullish).
- Strong thrusts typically lead to either: (a) a brief sideways flag, or (b) a shallow pullback into support, then continuation.
Implication: momentum favors continued upside bias over the next 24h, but with increased risk of intraday mean reversion.
3) Support/Resistance mapping (price memory)
Key resistance zones
- 280.90–281.14: Today’s intraday high ~280.905 and nearby psychological 281.
- 283.10–284.15: Prior daily closes/resistance (12/01 close 283.10; 12/03 close 284.15).
- 286.19–288.62: December swing high zone (12/02 close 286.19; 12/03 high 288.62). Major.
Key support zones
- 276.50–277.20: 02/04 close 276.49 and pre-breakout intraday area. This is the first meaningful demand shelf.
- 275.90–276.00: 02/05 close 275.91 and heavy after-hours trading around 275–277.
- 272.30–273.80: 02/06 premarket/early-hour prints ~273–275; also a prior breakout base.
Implication: If price holds above ~276.5 on any pullback, bulls remain in control.
4) Volatility & range (ATR-style reasoning)
Recent daily ranges are expanding:
- 02/04: 278.95–272.29 (~6.66)
- 02/05: 279.50–273.23 (~6.27)
- 02/06 (so far): 280.90–277.00 (~3.90 partial day)
A conservative 24h expectation is roughly ±4 to ±7 dollars potential swing, with a bias upward as long as support holds.
5) Volume & participation
- Several high-volume up days: 02/04 ~90.5M, 02/02 ~73.9M, 01/30 ~92.4M.
- This is consistent with institutional accumulation / re-risking after January’s selloff.
Implication: rallies have been supported by participation; less likely to be a weak “dead cat bounce.”
6) Candlestick / price-action read (daily + intraday)
Daily
- 02/04 was a strong expansion day closing near highs (bullish continuation).
- 02/05 was a mild pullback/inside-ish consolidation (healthy after a thrust).
- 02/06 is attempting to push back above the prior day’s range and retest 280–281.
Intraday (hourly series)
- After-hours 02/05 showed a dip to mid-274s then recovery to ~277 (buyers defended).
- 02/06 premarket dipped toward ~273.6–274.8 and then trended upward into the open, reaching 279–280.
Implication: dips are being bought; intraday structure supports an upward continuation or, at minimum, a hold above 276–277.
7) Fibonacci retracement (anchor: Dec high → Jan low)
Anchoring the swing roughly:
- High ~288.62 (12/03 high)
- Low ~243.42 (01/20 low) Range ~45.20
Key retracements:
- 61.8% retrace: 243.42 + 0.618*45.20 ≈ 271.36
- 78.6% retrace: 243.42 + 0.786*45.20 ≈ 278.96
Current price 279.79 is just above the 78.6% retracement, which is a critical inflection:
- Holding above ~279 suggests a high probability of a full retrace toward the prior highs (286–289) over coming sessions.
- Failing back below ~279 can trigger a pullback to 276–271.
Implication (next 24h): slight bullish edge, but 279 is a “decision level.”
8) Scenario-based 24h forecast
Base case (higher probability): Bullish continuation / consolidation higher
- Price consolidates above 276.5–279.0 and makes another attempt at 281, then probes 283–284.
- Expected 24h area: 277 → 284 with a mild upside skew.
Alternative: Rejection at 281 and mean reversion
- Failure to clear/hold above 280.9–281 triggers profit-taking.
- Pullback targets: 277.2, then 275.9, then 272.3–273.8.
Given the momentum thrust, institutional volume, and buyers defending the mid/high-270s, the probability-weighted bias is upward, but the best entry is not at market—it's on a pullback into support.
Trade conclusion (24h): BUY (Long bias)
Why buy:
- Strong reversal off 01/20 low with higher highs/lows.
- Heavy-volume recovery days suggest real sponsorship.
- Price reclaimed the 78.6% retrace (~278.96), often a prelude to a full retrace attempt.
- Support is well-defined (276.5–277.2), allowing a favorable risk location.
Optimal order placement
Because 279.79 is near resistance/inflection, the optimal long is a pullback entry:
- Open (Buy) Price: 277.30 (near the 276.5–277.2 support shelf; improves R:R vs chasing 280)
- Close (Take Profit) Price: 283.90 (first major target zone 283.1–284.15)
(If momentum breaks cleanly above 281 and holds, upside can extend, but for a 24h plan, 283.9 is a realistic, high-probability profit area.)