AAPL Reversal Day Sparks a 24H Upside Test: Dip-Buy Setup Into the 266–267 Supply Zone

Market snapshot (multi-timeframe)

• Current price: 264.58
• Last daily close (2026-02-20): 264.58 (close at/near high vs prior day close 260.58)
• Today’s daily range: 258.16 → 264.75 (wide, directional; buyers defended the dip and pushed to the upper end)
• Intraday structure (hourly): early weakness into ~259–257, then a persistent trend-up sequence into the close with only shallow pullbacks (263.33 dip then recovered to 264.59).

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1) Price action & trend structure

Daily swing context

• From early Feb, AAPL peaked near 278.95 (Feb 4 high) and sold off sharply to 255.45 (Feb 13 low).
• Since that low, price has been basing and rebounding:
  • Higher low: 255.45 → 260.05 (Feb 19 low)
  • Recovery close back to 264.58 today.
• This looks like a counter-trend rebound inside a still-recovering post-selloff environment. The key question: is this rebound strong enough to reclaim broken support-turned-resistance.

Intraday trend

• Hourly candles show:
  • A capitulation-style dip (down to ~257.02 around 14:00)
  • Followed by impulse up and trend continuation into the session end.
• This is typically consistent with short-covering + dip-buying and often leads to follow-through next session, unless price immediately rejects at a nearby resistance band.

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2) Key levels (support/resistance mapping)

Resistance (sell zones)

• 264.75: today’s high / immediate resistance.
• 266.8–267.0: recent resistance area (Feb 17–18 highs ~266.29–266.82).
• 269.5–270.5: prior pivot / breakdown zone (Feb 2–3 area ~269–271).

Support (buy zones)

• 263.2–263.4: intraday pullback area (hourly low around 263.285 and bounce).
• 260.0–261.0: prior day close zone and multiple recent pivots.
• 258.2: today’s low area.
• 255.4–255.8: Feb 13 low region (major swing support).

Implication: at 264.58, price is pressing into resistance (264.75 then 266–267). Upside is available, but the next 24h will likely be a test-and-react around 265–267.

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3) Momentum & oscillator inference (RSI/MACD-style reasoning from swings)

(Exact RSI/MACD values aren’t computable here without a full rolling calculation, but the price sequence allows a high-confidence read on momentum regime.)

• The selloff (Feb 4→Feb 13) was steep, consistent with RSI compression/oversold conditions.
• The rebound since Feb 13 and especially today’s close near the top of range signals momentum improvement.
• However, price is still below early-Feb highs (278–280), so momentum is more consistent with a bear-market rally / mean-reversion upswing than a fully restored uptrend.

Bias: mildly bullish for the next 24h, but expect resistance-driven pullbacks.

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4) Volatility & range analysis (ATR / expansion)

• Today’s daily range (~6.59 points) is larger than many prior sessions, indicating volatility expansion.
• Volatility expansion after a downswing often marks a turning attempt, and follow-through can continue for 1–3 sessions.
• But expanded range into resistance also increases odds of a pullback to retest (commonly 38.2%–61.8% of the impulse leg).

Practical expectation for next 24h:

• Likely two-way trade with a bullish tilt: a push toward 266–267, with pullbacks that could revisit 263.3.

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5) Volume & participation read

• The latest daily bar shows solid volume (~36.9M on the partial/last print) and intraday volume clustered in the later hours, aligning with institutional participation into strength.
• The Feb 12–13 breakdown had very high volume (81M then 56M), suggesting forced selling previously; rebounds after such events often have room to run as supply clears.

Interpretation: supply may be reducing; rebound can extend.

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6) Candlestick/Pattern signals

• Today resembles a strong recovery day (deep intraday low then close near highs), i.e., a bullish reversal / demand tail.
• The structure from Feb 13 low through today is compatible with an early inverse head-and-shoulders-type basing attempt (not fully confirmed), where confirmation would be a clean break and hold above 266.8–267.

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7) Fibonacci & mean reversion (from recent swing)

Using swing high ~278.95 (Feb 4) to swing low ~255.45 (Feb 13):

• 38.2% retrace: ~264.4 (very close to current price)
• 50% retrace: ~267.2
• 61.8% retrace: ~270.0

This is important:

• Price is currently sitting right around the 38.2% retracement, which often acts as a decision point.
• If buyers hold above ~264.4, odds increase of a move toward 267.2 (next magnet).

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8) Next 24 hours forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability):

• Early retest/pullback toward 263.3–264.0, then a second push to 266.0–267.2.

Bullish extension scenario:

• Clean break above 267.0, continuation toward 269.5–270.0 (61.8% retrace zone).

Failure scenario:

• Rejection at 264.7–266.0 followed by a drop back to 261; if 261 fails, next is 258–259.

Given the strength into the close and the fib “decision point” being reclaimed, I slightly favor the base case up.

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Trade plan (24h horizon)

Decision: Buy (Long)

Rationale summary:

• Strong intraday reversal + close near highs.
• Reclaiming the ~38.2% retracement (~264.4) suggests upside follow-through.
• Nearest meaningful upside magnet is 267.2 (50% retrace), with room to test.

Optimal open (entry) price

• Prefer not to buy the absolute top into 264.75 resistance.
• Optimal buy zone: 263.40 (near intraday support/pullback level and below fib decision point to improve R:R).

Take-profit (close) price

• Primary target at the next major retracement/resistance:
• Take-profit: 267.20

(This aligns with the 50% retracement and the nearby supply band 266.8–267.0.)

Note: If price instead breaks and holds above ~267 on strong tape, the next upside area would be ~269.5–270.0, but the plan below keeps a conservative 24h target.