AAPL Coils Under 240: Pivot-to-Resistance Long Setup Into R2

AAPL — 360° Technical Playbook and 24‑Hour Trade Plan

Summary view

• Bias: Mildly bullish for the next 24 hours; expect a drift toward 238.3 first resistance with a realistic shot at 239.8–240.2 if momentum confirms.
• Structure: A higher‑low base after the 9/10 shakeout; currently consolidating just under a well‑defined resistance shelf (238.2–239.8).
• Optimal tactical plan: Buy the dip near pivot support (≈236.1–236.4) for a push into R1/R2.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Since the early‑Aug breakout (post 8/6–8/8 surge), price advanced to a local cluster at 239–241, pulled back sharply on 9/10 to 226.79, then carved higher lows: 230.03 (9/11) → 234.07 (9/12) → 236.70 (9/15 close). This is a constructive, stair‑step advance.
• Resistance: 238.25 (classic R1 from 9/15), 239.80 (R2), and the supply zone 239.9–241.3 (9/4–9/5 highs).
• Support: 236.6 pivot (9/15 P≈236.64), S1≈235.09, structural supports 234.3 (9/9 close), 233.5 (S2≈233.48), and 230.0–230.6 (swing shelf and 50% Fib zone).
• Intraday microstructure (9/15): Tight, two‑sided auction 235.6–237.0 all session; 9/16 pre‑market coils 236.45–236.92, showing volatility compression (energy build) just below resistance.
• Anomalous prints: After‑hours spikes to 245.29/223.49 (20:00–21:00) look illiquid/outlier prints. Treat as noise; actual trading remained clustered ~236–237.

2. Classical pivots (9/15 OHLC: H=238.19, L=235.03, C=236.70)

• Pivot P=(H+L+C)/3 ≈ 236.64.
• R1=2P−L ≈ 238.25; S1=2P−H ≈ 235.09.
• R2=P+(H−L) ≈ 239.80; S2=P−(H−L) ≈ 233.48. Interpretation: Price is oscillating around P; a push above R1 opens the path to R2 (239.8), which aligns with the larger resistance band. S1 (≈235.1) is the first dip‑buy zone if the open is soft.

3. Moving averages (approximations from recent closes)

• 10‑day SMA ≈ 235.0; 20‑day SMA ≈ 231.5; 50‑day SMA ≈ 218–221; 200‑day SMA ≈ 195–200.
• Price > 10/20/50/200 SMAs → bullish stack. Rising 10>20>50 confirms an established upswing since the 9/10 flush.
• Tactical read: Pullbacks to 10‑day (~235) should attract buyers; being above the 20‑day mid‑basis keeps the Bollinger midline supportive.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): ~56–60. Not overbought, leaves room for a push into 239.8–241.3 without immediate mean‑reversion pressure.
• Stochastic: Rising from mid‑range; favors upside follow‑through as long as price holds above 235–236.
• MACD: Positive histogram and signal spread likely expanding post 9/11–9/12; momentum backdrop modestly supportive.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ≈ 3.8–4.5. A 24‑hour move of ~1–3 points is typical; a stretch to ~239.8 from 236.5 is within 1x ATR.
• Intraday compression: Pre‑market ranges of ~0.4–0.5 suggest a coiled spring effect into the cash open.

6. Bollinger Bands (approx., 20‑period)

• Mid‑band ≈ 231.5; upper ≈ 239.5–240; lower ≈ 223–224.
• Price near but not breaching the upper band: Room remains to tag upper band (≈239.5–240). A clean close near/above the upper band would signal momentum continuation.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 8/21 low 224.90 to 9/5 high 241.32)

• 38.2%: ≈ 235.9 (current price holding just above) → bullish that buyers defended this retracement.
• 50%: ≈ 233.1; 61.8%: ≈ 230.3.
• Read: Reclaiming and holding above the 38.2% line favors a continuation attempt toward prior highs before any deeper retrace.

8. Ichimoku Cloud (qualitative)

• Price above cloud; Conversion (Tenkan) likely above Base (Kijun); Lagging line above price. Net bullish regime; Kijun around 233–234 should be strong support on dips.

9. Volume/participation

• Heavy distribution on 9/10 (83M) absorbed and followed by higher closes 9/11–9/12–9/15; indicates strong dip buying.
• Volume nodes: 230–233 is a high‑volume area (acceptance); 235–238 lighter volume, enabling faster rotations up to 239–240 supply.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle/bull flag: Flat resistance ~238.2–239.8 with rising swing lows; a breakout above 238.3 increases the odds of a quick run to 239.8–241.3.
• No topping pattern evident near current levels; pullbacks appear corrective.

11. Elliott wave (tactical lens)

• From 9/10 low 226.79: impulsive Wave 1 to ~239.8, Wave 2 retrace to ~234–235, and a nascent Wave 3 attempt underway. Wave 3 often targets prior high zone (239.8–241.3) with potential extension.

12. Regression channel and VWAP context

• Short‑term linear regression (from 9/10) slopes upward; price resting mid‑to‑upper channel.
• Anchored VWAP from 9/10 low is estimated around 235.7–236.0; current price slightly above → buyers retain control while above AVWAP.

13. Pivot‑based trade map for the next 24 hours

• Bullish path (base case, ~60%): Hold 236.0–236.6 → push through 238.25 (R1) → test 239.80 (R2). If tape is strong, wick into 240.2–240.5; likely closes near 238.8–240.0.
• Neutral path (~30%): Fade at 238.2–238.5, oscillate 235.5–237.8, closing around 236–237.
• Bearish risk (~10%): Lose 235.1 (S1) on volume → test 233.5 (S2). Break of 233.5 would open 232–231.5 (20‑DMA), but odds are lower within 24h absent a macro shock.

14. Risk management and execution

• Preferred entry: Buy a controlled dip into 236.1 (near P and AVWAP support) to keep risk tight.
• Validation trigger: Momentum add above 238.3 (R1 break) if you prefer confirmation over early entry.
• Invalidation/stop (discretionary): Below 234.9 (under S1 and yesterday’s value area), as a decisive break would damage the bullish intraday structure.
• Reward‑to‑risk: Entry 236.1 → TP 239.8 = +3.7; vs. stop 234.9 = −1.2; R:R ≈ 3.1:1.

15. What could go wrong

• Event risk: Headlines or broader market pullback could knock price through S1 to S2 quickly.
• Failed breakout risk: Rejection wicks above 238.5 that close back below 236.6 would signal supply still dominates near 240 and favor a range day.

24‑hour price prediction

• Likely path: 236.0–236.6 base, probe 238.2–238.5, and a late‑day/next‑session attempt toward 239.5–240.0. Probabilistic close: 238.6–239.6 if bulls execute; alternate close 236–237 on stalemate.

Bottom line

• The confluence of pivot support at ~236.6, 38.2% Fib at ~235.9, price > 10/20/50/200 SMAs, and an ascending‑triangle look favors a tactical long, aiming for a 239.8 print within the next 24 hours. Use 234.9 as a practical invalidation to protect capital.