BTC’s Dead-Cat Bounce Into Supply: Shorting 86.9k for a Move Back to 82k

Executive view

• Bias next 24h: Sell the rip. Expect a relief pop into overhead supply (≈86.6–87.3k), then rotation lower toward 82–83k if momentum fades.
• Trade idea: Short a retest of broken support turned resistance around 86.9k with a protective stop above 88.9k. First target 82.3k; secondary extension 81.5k if momentum accelerates.
• Probability-weighted path: 65% chance of a lower-high forming below 87.5k and a drift back to the 82–83k demand band; 25% chance of squeeze to 88.5–89.0k; 10% chance of full trend reversal >91.2k.

1. Market structure and trend (Daily and Intraday)

• Higher-timeframe structure (Daily): BTC has transitioned from distribution in the 120–126k zone (early Oct) into a sequence of lower highs/lower lows. The break from 104–110k support (early Nov) unleashed persistent downside momentum to 94k, then to 92–93k, and finally a capitulation-like extension to 86.6k (Nov 20 daily low) and an intraday flush to 80.76k today (Nov 21, 12:00 UTC bar).
• Current price 85,190 is below all recent breakdown pivots (92–94k and 96–101k). The prior daily close/pivot 86,632 (Nov 20) now acts as resistance.
• Intraday structure (Hourly, Nov 21): A violent V-shaped rebound off 80.76k drove price back into 84–85.5k. Multiple intraday highs cluster 85.3–85.4k (14:00, 17:00, 21:00), creating local liquidity. A stop run above that cluster likely targets the 86.6–87.3k supply band (yesterday’s breakdown close and the underside of a micro-range), before sellers reassert.

2. Momentum diagnostics

• RSI (Daily, qualitative): After a sustained 2+ week decline from ~101.6k (Nov 4) to today’s ~80.8–85k print, daily RSI is likely in or near oversold territory (upper 20s to low 30s). Oversold supports bounces but within a downtrend these typically stall at the first strong resistance.
• RSI (Hourly): The 12:00 flush produced an oversold spike; the subsequent bounce carried hourly RSI into the neutral 50–55 region, not confirming a trend reversal. Recent lower high in momentum as price revisited 85k suggests negative divergence risk on pops toward 86–87k.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero with expanding negative histogram through mid-November; recent bars show a reduction in downside acceleration (less negative), which aligns with a relief rally but not a reversal.
• Stochastics (Daily): Likely curled up from oversold, a typical mean-reversion phase, yet still below midline—again implying bounces into resistance more than trend change.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20/50/100-day EMAs/SMA (estimates): Price is below the 20D and 50D MAs after the Nov breakdown. The 20D is rolling over and likely crossing below the 50D (bearish). The 100D sits much higher in the 105–110k area—well above current price—illustrating the damage.
• Intraday EMAs (Hourly): Price reclaimed short EMAs post-flush, but remains below the prior value area and below the daily trend MAs; rallies into 86–87k sit right into the underside of the declining hourly 200EMA region.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR (Daily): Expanded sharply since early November (9–12k daily swings during capitulation days). Current situation favors fast, two-sided action, but with a bearish drift.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Bands are expanded; price rode the lower band on the selloff and is attempting a mean reversion. Reversions often stall before the middle band in downtrends; that mid-band is far above (≈95–100k), suggesting plenty of overhead room for sellers to reload.

5. Volume and participation

• Volume spikes: Massive activity on prior breakdown days (Oct 10, Nov 4, Nov 14) and elevated turnover during today’s flush-to-bounce sequence. High volume on down legs vs lower volume on bounces is classic distribution. Note: some hourly prints show zero volume (data gaps); use caution but the non-zero bars today (12:00 at 8.8b, 19:00–21:00 elevated) confirm real interest on the selloff and modest participation on the rebound.
• Read: Capitulation wicks can fuel sharp bounces, but sustained demand is unproven; likely a countertrend rally into supply.

6. Support/resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance: 85.3–85.4k (local intraday triple top liquidity), then 86.6k (Nov 20 close/pivot), then 87.2–87.6k (hourly supply shelf), and 88.7–89.0k (0.382 retrace of the Nov 4 high 101.6k to today’s 80.8k low; see Fibonacci below). Stronger resistance 92–94k and 96–101k (prior breakdown zones).
• Immediate support: 84.5k (session pivot/VWAP region), 83.4–83.5k (intraday reaction zone), 82.0–82.6k (demand shelf). Deeper support at 80.8–81.0k (today’s capitulation wick area). A loss of 80.8k risks fast continuation into the high 70s.

7. Fibonacci framework

• Swing Nov 4 (101,590) to Nov 21 intraday low (80,761):
  • 0.382: ~88,720
  • 0.5: ~91,175
  • 0.618: ~93,630 The first meaningful fib confluence sits around 88.7–89.0k—well-aligned with overhead supply. Prior pivot at 86.6k lies below that, offering a nearer-term sell zone where bounces can fail early.
• Larger swing Oct 1 high (118,649) to today’s 80,761 low:
  • 0.382: ~95,250
  • 0.5: ~99,705
  • 0.618: ~104,150 These are far above and unlikely to be reached in 24h without a major squeeze. They frame medium-term resistance if a multi-day rally develops.

8. Ichimoku lens (Daily/Hourly, qualitative)

• Daily: Price well below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Chikou below price/cloud—bearish alignment. Any bounce into the flat Kijun area (likely in the low-to-mid 90s) would encounter heavy resistance. Not relevant to 24h entry but confirms bearish regime.
• Hourly: Price below the cloud for most of the session; post-flush bounce approaching the underside of the cloud around mid-86s to 87s—textbook short location.

9. VWAP and value

• Session VWAP (intraday approximation) sits near 84.4–84.6k after the heavy sell and rebound. Price hovering slightly above suggests a balanced-to-slightly-positive intraday tape, but reclaiming VWAP after a capitulation is typical before sellers fade the move. An anchored VWAP from the 12:00 low likely runs ~84.4k; losing that would mark momentum failure.

10. Pattern recognition

• Daily candle likely to print a long lower-tail hammer-like bar if it closes near 85k, inviting a reflex bounce. However, in a downtrend, such hammers often resolve as “dead-cat bounces” into first resistance.
• Intraday: Developing bear flag/ascending wedge from 82.8k base toward 85–86k. Multiple equal highs at 85.3–85.4k imply liquidity overhead; a sweep toward 86.6–87.3k is probable before reversal.

11. Liquidity and stop zones

• Stops likely rest above 85.3–85.4k (local stop run) and more meaningfully above 86.6k (prior daily pivot). A sweep through both toward 87.x would be a prime area to initiate shorts. Above 88.7–89.0k, shorts face risk of a squeeze toward 91.2k.

12. Volatility expectation (next 24h)

• Recent daily ranges are 6–9k. With current 85.2k, an expected 24h range: 81–87.5k baseline, 88.5–89.0k if squeeze, 80.8k retest if sellers dominate.

13. Scenario pathing (probabilities)

• Base case (65%): Early pop to 86.6–87.3k, failure, then rotation down to 83.0–83.5k; extension probe to ~82.3k. Close near 83–84k.
• Squeeze case (25%): Break and hold above 87.5k leads to a run at 88.7–89.0k; failure there likely. Only a strong close above 89k opens 91.2k.
• Bear acceleration (10%): Rejection below 85k quickly loses 84.4k VWAP, drops through 83.4k, and revisits 81k–80.8k.

14. Risk management and invalidation

• Proposed short entry: 86,900 with stop: 88,900 (above 0.382 retrace and supply). Risk ≈2,000. Target: 82,300. Reward ≈4,600. R:R ≈2.3:1.
• Invalidation: Hourly close >88.9k or daily close >89k suggests the bounce is evolving into a multi-day squeeze; step aside or flip bias above 91.2k on confirmation.

15. Why not long here?

• While oversold conditions can persist and produce sharp bounces, the preponderance of evidence (lower highs, below key MAs, under daily Kumo, heavy resistance 86.6–89k) argues to sell strength, not buy weakness, over a 24h horizon. A tactical long only becomes attractive on clean reclaim/hold above ~89k with rising volume.

16. 24-hour price prediction (path and levels)

• Early: Test/sweep 85.4k liquidity; push to 86.6–87.3k.
• Mid: Rejection near 87k; loss of 85k/VWAP; drift to 83.5k.
• Late: Probe 82.3k. If momentum strong, brief spike 81.8–82.0k before bounce. Expected closing zone 83–84k.

Trade plan summary

• Action: Sell (Short). Limit entry 86,900. Stop 88,900. Take-profit 82,300. If no fill and price breaks down first, an alternative momentum entry is a break-and-hold below 84,300 with the same target band (82.3–81.8k), but the preferred entry is the lower-risk short-on-strength at 86.9k.

Note: This is a tactical, 24h plan based solely on provided chart data and technicals; not financial advice. Conditions can change rapidly with new flows or headlines. Manage risk accordingly.