BTC at 67.8k: Bear-Market Rally Fading Below 70k Supply—High Odds of a 66k Retest (and Possible 64k Flush)

Market context (multi-timeframe)

1) Higher-timeframe structure (Daily)

• Trend since mid‑Nov: A clear transition from distribution to bearish trend.
  • 2025‑11‑14 close ~94.4k vs current ~67.8k → ~-28% drawdown.
• Major breakdown leg: Late Jan → early Feb
  • 2026‑01‑28 close ~89.2k → 2026‑02‑05 close ~62.7k (capitulation day with very large volume).
• Post-capitulation behavior:
  • 2026‑02‑06 printed a strong rebound close ~70.6k (classic “dead‑cat bounce” / short-covering).
  • Since then, daily closes have drifted lower to 68.8k → 67.8k, indicating the rebound is losing momentum.

Implication: Daily structure remains bearish (lower highs / lower lows) with the market in a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend.

2) Key daily supply/demand zones (from visible pivots)

• Resistance (supply) zones
  • 70.0k–71.7k: multiple daily interactions (02‑06 to 02‑09) and a clear “battle zone.”
  • 72.0k–73.0k: rebound highs (02‑08 high ~72.2k; 02‑04 high ~76.9k above, but 72k is nearer-term).
• Support (demand) zones
  • 65.8k–66.2k: intraday lows and repeated defense on 02‑11 (hourly lows ~65.9k; multiple bounces).
  • 62.3k–63.0k: capitulation base (02‑05 low ~62.35k).

Implication: Price is currently below the major 70–72k supply, and sitting mid‑range with support ~66k.

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Intraday (Hourly) tape read (last ~24h)

3) Intraday trend + market geometry

Using the provided hourly candles on 2026‑02‑11:

• Early session: 69.2k → 66.7k (persistent sell pressure).
• Mid session: bounce attempts to 67.5k, then sharp rejection down to ~66.5k.
• Later session: another bounce to ~67.8k and close around 67.8k.

This forms a descending/sideways corrective channel with:

• Lower swing highs (~69.2k → ~67.5k → ~67.8k)
• Strong but repeatedly tested base near ~66k

Implication: Market is compressing; repeated support tests often weaken the level. Unless bulls reclaim 69–70k quickly, downside probability increases.

4) Volatility and range behavior (ATR-style reasoning)

• Today’s (02‑11) daily range: High ~69,226 / Low ~65,935 → ~3,291 points (~4.9%).
• That’s elevated volatility relative to normal conditions and consistent with a post-crash environment.

Implication: Large intraday swings are likely to persist; targets must respect wider stops/targets. For next 24h, a retest of either 70k (if breakout) or 66k/63k (if breakdown) is plausible.

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Indicator-based inference (derived from price action)

(Exact indicator values aren’t computed programmatically here, but conclusions follow standard behavior given the sequence and magnitudes of closes.)

5) Moving averages (trend filter)

• After a rapid fall from ~89k to ~63k, short-term averages (5–10D) would have turned down sharply.
• Current price (~67.8k) is very likely below the 20D/50D and certainly below longer MAs.

Implication: Trend filters favor selling rallies until price reclaims and holds above key MAs (likely around the 70k+ region).

6) RSI / momentum logic

• The 02‑05 crash to ~62.7k likely pushed RSI into oversold.
• The rebound to ~70.6k likely relieved oversold conditions.
• The subsequent lower highs and inability to reclaim 70k suggests momentum is fading (RSI likely rolling over toward/under 50 on short timeframes).

Implication: Momentum currently favors mean reversion downward or another leg lower unless a breakout occurs.

7) MACD / trend momentum

• Large down impulse + weak rebound typically keeps MACD bearish (or at best a weak bullish cross that fails).

Implication: Reinforces a bear-market rally characterization.

8) Volume / capitulation interpretation

• 02‑05 volume is exceptionally high (capitulation).
• 02‑06 also high (reversal/short covering).
• After that, volumes moderate while price drifts lower.

Implication: Classic pattern where strong hands absorbed, price bounced, then buyers fail to follow through, allowing sellers to resume control.

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Price levels: pivots, Fibonacci-style zones, and order-flow logic

9) Pivot mapping (practical trade levels)

• Immediate resistance: 68.8k–69.2k (intraday swing high area).
• Major resistance: 70.0k–70.6k (round number + 02‑06 close region).
• Immediate support: 67.0k (psych + intraday congestion).
• Major support: 65.9k–66.2k (today’s repeated defended low zone).
• Breakdown trigger: sustained trade below 65.8k on momentum.

10) Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / retest support

• Conditions: failure to break and hold above 69.2k; sellers defend 68.8k–70k.
• Path: drift lower → retest 66k → if cracks, acceleration toward 63k–64k (capitulation base neighborhood).
• Rationale: downtrend intact; repeated support tests; rebound losing strength.

Alternative case (lower probability): squeeze to 70k–72k

• Conditions: clean hourly close above 69.2k followed by acceptance above 70k.
• Path: fast move to 70.6k–71.7k, potential wick to ~72.2k.
• Rationale: volatility high; short positioning can fuel a squeeze.

My directional call (24h): slightly-to-moderately bearish with higher odds of support retest (66k) and a meaningful chance of a break toward 63k–64k if 65.8k fails.

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Trading plan decision

11) Decision: Sell (Short Position)

The market is in a broader downtrend, below major supply (70–72k), and intraday structure shows weakening bounces and repeated support tests.

12) Optimal open price (entry)

Because price is mid-range (~67.8k), the better short is on a relief rally into resistance (improves R:R).

• Open (Short) Price: 68,900
  • Rationale: near the intraday resistance band (68.8k–69.2k) where prior swings rejected.
  • If price never rallies there, a more aggressive trader might enter on a breakdown below 65.8k; but your request is for an optimal open price vs current—this is the better “sell the bounce” level.

13) Close price (take profit)

• Close (Take Profit): 64,200
  • Rationale: sits above the capitulation low zone (62.3k) but captures the likely next liquidity pocket (63–64k) if 66k support breaks.

(Risk note: a logical invalidation for this short would be acceptance above 70.6k–71.7k; not requested, but that’s the level that breaks the thesis.)