BTC stalls at 23.6% Fib and daily pivot: fading 91.4k into 88k

Executive summary and 24h view

• Baseline (most likely, ~55%): BTC stalls beneath the 23.6% retracement/pivot cluster at 91.3–91.5k and fades toward 88.7–89.3k as momentum stalls and supply caps rallies.
• Bullish alternative (~30%): Strong reclaim and hold above 92.5k squeezes price into 94.0–94.5k (R2/20D MA overhead), with extension risk toward 98.0k (38.2% Fib) if follow-through appears.
• Bearish tail (~15%): Weekend illiquidity breaks 89k, probing 88.0k then 86.6–85.5k support before dip-buyers step in.

Price action and market structure

• Trend context (Daily): A pronounced downtrend from the early-October peak (~126k) to the Nov 21 swing low (~80.66k). The subsequent rebound topped out under the 23.6% retracement and is consolidating below the 20-day moving average (MA20). The series of lower highs and lower lows remains intact on the daily, while the last week shows a fragile short-term higher-low sequence.
• Key swing levels: High 126.2k (Oct 6), crash pivot 104.6–113k (Oct 10–12), breakdown leg to 94.4k (Nov 14 close), capitulation low 80.66k (Nov 21), rebound highs ~92.97k (Nov 28). Current 90.76k sits slightly under the 23.6% retracement (91.40k) and daily pivot (91.38k).
• Weekend tape (Nov 27–29): Repeated failure above 91.3–92.0k produced upper wicks, suggesting supply overhang near the first Fib/R1 area. Intraday 11/29 shows tight range and lower high under 91.2k.

Support and resistance map (confluence)

• Resistance: 91.30–91.50k (23.6% Fib from 126.2k to 80.66k and daily pivot P=91.38k), 92.50k (R1) and 92.97k (11/28 high), 93.36k (MA20), 94.1–94.5k (R2/Mid-swing supply), 98.05k (38.2% Fib), 100–102k (psych + prior breakdown shelf).
• Support: 90.0k (psych), 89.8k (S1 calc 89.79k), 89.0–88.7k (recent demand and S2=88.67k), 88.27k (11/24 close), 86.63k (11/20 close), 85.09k (11/21 close), 83.5–84.7k (daily base), 80.66k (swing low).

Classical indicators and oscillators

• Moving averages: MA20 ≈ 93.36k (price below), MA50 well above (~106–108k by estimation), confirming a bearish higher-timeframe regime. Price trading below a falling MA20 suggests rallies are likely sold until the MA20 is reclaimed decisively.
• RSI(14) Daily ≈ 42: Neutral-bearish; rebound off oversold has stalled below the midline (50). This often caps upside at initial resistance unless momentum improves.
• MACD (12/26/9): Still below zero; histogram likely flattened after turning up post-11/21, indicating waning upside impulse beneath resistance. A cross back lower would favor a retest of 89–88k.
• Stochastics/Stoch RSI: Mid-zone and rolling over on the daily implies momentum is losing steam right under resistance, a typical fade setup.
• ADX: Trend strength likely cooled toward the low-20s after the capitulation; not a strong trend day yet, so mean-reversion edges near resistance are attractive into the weekend.

Volatility and range analytics

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): MA20 ~93.36k with estimated band width ~±6.8k gives lower band near ~79.8k and upper near ~106.9k. Current price is in the lower half of the envelope, but not near the band—no extreme signal; bands have been contracting from the crash, suggesting a volatility compression setup is forming.
• ATR(14) estimation: ~4–5.5k. Expect 24h realized range roughly 4k; a swing between 89–92.5k is well within typical daily movement.

Fibonacci and measured-move framework

• Entire drawdown: 126.2k → 80.66k (range ~45.54k). Retracements: 23.6% 91.40k, 38.2% 98.05k, 50% 103.93k, 61.8% 109.81k. Price is pinned at the first retracement—statistically a common stall area after severe selloffs. Failure to build acceptance above 91.4–92.5k often precedes a retest of 88–89k before any attempt at the 38.2% level.

Pivots (11/28 H/L/C): H=92,969, L=90,257, C=90,919

• P = 91,382; R1 = 92,506; S1 = 89,794; R2 = 94,094; S2 = 88,670
• Current price sits just below P; short setups at/near P with targets toward S1/S2 are favored absent a bullish reclaim of R1.

Volume, breadth, and accumulation/distribution

• Volume: Capitulation spikes 11/14–11/21, then decaying volume on the rebound—classic bear-market rally footprint. Recent fades near 92–93k occurred on lighter participation, signaling sellers can contain price without large effort.
• OBV/MFI proxy: Distribution over October–mid-November; slight accumulation since 11/22 but insufficient to flip the higher-timeframe profile. Until OBV takes out the late-November local highs, rallies face headwinds.

Ichimoku daily (heuristic)

• Price below cloud; span A/B far above. Tenkan likely crossing up over Kijun earlier in the bounce but both below the cloud—this is a weak bullish signal within a bearish regime. Chikou below price and cloud. Net: resistance overhead remains dominant.

Pattern diagnostics

• Short-term: A weak ascending consolidation under 23.6% Fib looks like a bear flag/weak basing attempt. Upper wicks near 92–93k suggest supply. A breakdown of the rising micro-structure opens a measured move toward ~88–89k first.
• Medium-term: Potential ABC corrective bounce from 80.66k with A-wave stalling under 23.6%. Without breadth/volume confirmation, probability favors a shallow correction and range before trend resolution.

Order flow and execution plan

• Rationale for short bias: Confluence of (a) failure at 23.6% Fib and daily pivot, (b) price below MA20 and negative MACD, (c) RSI <50 roll-over, (d) repeated upper wicks and decaying bounce volume, and (e) weekend liquidity—typically favors fades at resistance with tight risk.
• Optimal entry: Sell a test of 91.3–91.5k (Fib 23.6% ≈ 91.40k and daily pivot ≈ 91.38k). This area also front-runs R1 (92.5k) and the 11/28 high 92.97k, offering a well-defined invalidation zone.
• Profit target: 88.2–88.7k (S2 ~88.67k, prior demand 88.27k). This aligns with ATR and recent micro-bases.
• Risk management (not part of output fields but critical): Stop above 92.6–92.9k (R1/last swing high cluster). Risk ~1.2–1.5k to make ~3.1k; reward/risk ~2–2.6:1. If 92.5k is reclaimed with acceptance, flip bias to long toward 94.1k then 98k.

24-hour probability-weighted path

• Expect early probe into 91.3–92.0k; sellers likely cap moves under 92.5k. Subsequent drift lower into NY session liquidity could test 89.8k (S1), with extension to 88.7–88.3k if stops release below 89.0k. Only a clean hourly close >92.5k invalidates the short and targets 94.1k.

Conclusion

• The first bounce has stalled at textbook resistance with momentum rolling over and price capped beneath the MA20. Fading 91.4k offers attractive asymmetry into 88.x support in the next 24 hours.