BTC relief rally aims at 96.4–97.8k before overhead supply fights back

Executive summary

• Regime: Medium-term downtrend with fresh capitulation low at 89,300 on 2025-11-18 and a relief bounce to 95,061 now. Bias for the next 24 hours: short-term mean-reversion up toward clustered resistances 96.4–97.8k before supply likely reappears.
• Plan: Favor a tactical long on a minor dip with profit-taking into the 97.5–98k resistance shelf. Tight risk controls due to elevated ATR.

1. Price action and market structure

• Trend: Series of lower highs/lows since early Oct peak (intraday 123,945 on 10/03). Multiple distribution breaks (10/10, 11/04, 11/13–14) confirm bearish structure.
• Recent capitulation: 11/18 printed a deep low at 89,300 with a close back above 92,900, forming a long lower wick (hammer-like), followed by today’s continuation to 95,061. Typical bear-market “relief rally” setup.
• Key swing levels: • Swing high: 123,945 (10/03) • Major breakdown area: 105–106k (11/10–11/12 closes) • Capitulation low: 89,300 (11/18) • Current: 95,061 (11/19, live)
• Structure inference (24h): After a hammer and follow-through day, the path of least resistance is a push into the first resistance cluster before encountering fresh sellers.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20D SMA (approx): ~102,090 (average of last 20 closes). Price is ~6.9% below, indicating short-term downtrend but room for mean reversion toward the mid-band.
• 50D SMA (est): ~110k+ given September/October levels. Price well below, confirming intermediate bearish trend.
• 200D SMA (est): still above 110k. Long-term trend not yet repaired. Interpretation: Strong downtrend backdrop, but distance from 20D SMA supports bounce potential before the next trend test.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Likely rebounding from oversold (<30) after a string of down closes culminating 11/18. The higher close on 11/18 vs 11/17 and today’s follow-through suggest RSI rising into the low/mid-30s to low-40s region. This favors short-term upside until RSI hits neutral (~45–50) where sellers often reassert in bear phases.
• Stochastic: Coming out of oversold with a bullish crossover is consistent with a 1–3 day bounce window.
• MACD(12,26,9): Deeply negative but histogram contraction likely underway as downside momentum fades; potential for a short-lived bullish cross on lower timeframes, consistent with relief to resistance. Interpretation: Momentum supports a tactical bounce but not a trend change.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (daily): Elevated after multiple high-range sessions; rough read ~6–8k. Expect wide 24h swings.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band near the 20D SMA (~102.1k). Lower band estimated near ~90k (given recent ranges). 11/18 pierced/approached lower band and reversed; typical mean-reversion push toward band midpoint over several sessions. For the next 24h, a move toward 96.4–97.8k fits a staged reversion without fully testing the mid-band yet. Interpretation: Band mean reversion favors upside continuation into first resistance cluster before volatility likely expands two-sided again.

5. Volume/participation

• Notable volume spikes: 10/10, 11/04, 11/13–14, 11/18—classic capitulation/distro days. OBV trend is down (qualitative), in line with distribution.
• 11/18’s bounce on heavy volume vs prior day suggests short-covering + dip buying. Relief rallies often persist 1–3 sessions but typically stall below key MAs. Interpretation: Volume pattern supports a counter-trend pop, but no accumulation signature yet.

6. Fibonacci mapping (multiple anchors)

• Macro swing: 123,945 (10/03) to 89,300 (11/18) • 23.6%: 97,484 • 38.2%: 102,539 • 50%: 106,622 • 61.8%: 110,705
• Recent downswing: 105,997 (11/10) to 89,300 (11/18) • 38.2%: 95,677 (near current price) • 50%: 97,649 (confluence with macro 23.6%) • 61.8%: 99,619 (near big round 100k) Interpretation: 95.7k and 97.6k are magnet/ceiling zones. First major resistance band sits 96.4–97.8k; second at ~99.6–100k.

7. Pivot levels (calculated from 11/18 H/L/C)

• High=93,745; Low=89,300; Close=92,949
• Pivot P ≈ 91,998; R1 ≈ 94,696; R2 ≈ 96,443; R3 ≈ 99,141; S1 ≈ 90,251 Interpretation: Price has cleared R1 and is traveling toward R2 (96.44k). R2 aligns with the lower edge of the 96.4–97.8k resistance cluster.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; cloud above ~105–110k. Tenkan below Kijun, both above price; Chikou below price. Strongly bearish regime.
• However, price often reverts toward Tenkan/Kijun after extreme deviation; that supports a bounce into resistance without a regime flip.

9. Candlestick/pattern read

• 11/18: Long lower wick/hammer-like after a waterfall decline—a classic short-term reversal cue.
• 11/19 intraday continuation confirms pattern validity for a 1–3 day reactionary rally.
• No base structure yet; expect rally to meet overhead supply at Fibonacci/pivot confluence.

10. Linear regression channel and mean reversion

• A 20–30 session linear regression channel would slope down steeply. Current price is rising toward the channel mean after touching/piercing the lower boundary on 11/18. Statistically, a tag of the mean or first standard deviation band often coincides with the 96–98k area before reassessment.

11. Wyckoff/Elliott perspective (heuristic)

• Wyckoff: 11/18 resembles a spring-type action below the November range floor, prompting a rally to test the breakdown zone. This is commonly followed by a test/pullback; whether it evolves into accumulation is unknown.
• Elliott: A five-wave decline from Oct could have finished a wave 5 on 11/18; current move likely an ABC corrective rally. The A-leg often reaches 38.2–50% of the last swing: 95.7–97.6k—matching our target band.

12. Confluence map (most important)

• First resistance cluster: 96.4–97.8k (Pivot R2 at 96.44k; 38.2–50% of recent swing at 95.7–97.6k; macro 23.6% at 97.5k). Strong confluence.
• Secondary resistance: 99.6–100k (61.8% of recent swing + round number + Pivot R3 near 99.1k).
• Supports: 94.7k (Pivot R1, now potential support), 93.2–93.5k (recent bounce shelf), 92.0–92.5k (11/17 close/11/18 close region), 90.2k (S1), 89.3k (capitulation low).

13. Expected 24h path and probabilities

• Base case (60%): Extend to 96.4–97.8k, stall, and consolidate/pull back toward 95.0–95.5k. Net +2–3% day with intraday high near the resistance cluster.
• Bull extension (20%): Momentum squeeze through 97.8k toward 99.1–99.6k; likely fades below 100k unless a news catalyst hits.
• Bear fail (20%): Lose 94.7k (R1) on a sharp reversal; slide to 93.2–92.5k. A break of 92.0k risks a quick flush toward 90.2k; retest of 89.3k would indicate bounce failure.

14. Risk management and trade design

• Thesis: Tactical long into resistance, playing the relief leg, not the trend change. Risk tight; take profit at first cluster.
• Entry: Prefer a small dip entry near 95,000 (just below current 95,061) to improve R:R and align with micro pullbacks.
• Take-profit: 97,650 (50% retrace of the 11/10–11/18 downswing and within resistance cluster). If momentum is exceptionally strong, partials could be managed toward 98.4–99.1k, but base plan exits at 97,650.
• Stop (not part of output fields but essential): 93,400 (below reclaimed R1/short-term shelf), yielding roughly -1.6k risk vs +2.65k reward (approx 1.6:1). Intra-ATR volatility warrants sizing down.
• Sizing: Consider half-normal size given elevated ATR to avoid stop-outs.

15. What would invalidate the plan?

• A decisive break and hourly close below ~93.4k suggests the relief rally failed; abandon longs and reassess for a move toward 92.0/90.2k.
• Conversely, if price impulses cleanly through 97.8k on strong breadth/volume, momentum may carry to ~99.1–99.6k; in that case, trail stops and consider scaling out higher instead of hard-target exit.

24-hour prediction

• Directional bias: Upward drift early toward 96.4–97.8k, then two-way trade. High-likelihood intraday high somewhere in 96.4–97.8k; closing level likely between 95.2k and 96.8k unless a squeeze extends.
• Expected range: 94.3k–97.9k (tail risk to ~99.1k on squeeze; to ~92.5k on fail).

Bottom line

• In a broader downtrend, the market printed a capitulation low and is now executing a textbook relief rally. Multiple toolkits (Fibs, pivots, Bollinger mean reversion, oscillators) cluster first resistance at 96.4–97.8k. A tactical long into that band offers favorable near-term odds, with tight risk control.