BTC poised for a tactical rebound: buy the dip toward 90.6k, aiming for a 94.7–95k rotation

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for BTC/USD as of 2025-12-04 22:00 UTC

Market context and structure

• Regime: After an early-October peak near 126k, BTC entered a strong drawdown in October–November, accelerating mid-November to a capitulation-like low cluster (Nov 21 close ~85.1k; Dec 1 intraday low ~83.9k). Since Dec 1, a reflexive rebound carried price to a Dec 3 high ~94.1k, followed by today’s orderly pullback to the low 91k area. Current price: 92,156.
• Bias: Medium-term downtrend intact (price below 100–200D MAs), but short-term upswing from Dec 1 low is attempting a base/recovery. The last 24h shows a controlled dip within a nascent recovery structure.

Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Immediate supports: 91.7k (daily S1 pivot), 91.2k (38.2% retracement of 86.32k → 94.06k leg), 90.2k (50% retracement), 89.2k (61.8%), 89.9k (daily S2 ≈ 89.88k), 90k round number.
• Immediate resistances: 92.88k (daily pivot P), 93.6–94.1k (prior day’s high zone and intraday rejection band), 94.7k (R1 pivot), 95.5–96.0k (late-November supply), 100k (round/psychological and likely HVN previously).

Daily timeframe analysis (candles, trend, volatility)

• Trend: Lower highs/lower lows since Oct; however, from Dec 1 a local higher-low sequence is possible (86.3k → 91.1k → 91.0k). Today printed a modest red day with a lower low and slightly lower high versus Dec 3, but within a normal pullback after a two-day bounce.
• Candles: Dec 1 carved a long lower-tail candle (capitulation/reversal character). Dec 2–3 were constructive greens; Dec 4 is a moderate retracement candle with controlled range (~3k), not a wide-range breakdown. Net: pullback within recovery attempt rather than trend resumption down (unless 90k gives way).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): After hugging the lower band in late Nov, price reverted toward the mid-band; today’s close appears near/just below the 20D basis, suggesting mean reversion potential back toward the basis if intraday dips hold. No upper-band tag yet—room exists for upside expansion on a breakout over ~94k.
• RSI(14): Likely rebounded from oversold (<30) to mid-40s/low-50s. Today’s pullback likely reset intraday overextension without pushing daily RSI back to oversold. Neutral-to-slightly-bullish short-term momentum if supports hold.
• MACD: Deeply negative in November; histogram has been rising toward the zero line since Dec 1. Today’s red day may flatten the slope but does not negate the pending bullish cross scenario if price stabilizes above 90–91k over the next sessions.
• ATR(14) estimate: ~3.0–3.5k. Today’s H-L (~3.0k) sits around 1.0 ATR. This supports a tactical swing range of ~3–3.5k for the next 24h, making tests of 90.2k or pushes toward 94.7k plausible in a single day.

Weekly timeframe quick take

• Structure: Large weekly down candle clusters through Nov; this week so far is a small real body above last week’s close, indicative of a tentative base attempt. Weekly resistance remains overhead (95–100k), with weekly support 85–87k.

4H/1H intraday structure and momentum

• Structure: The 1H chart from Dec 3–4 shows a series of lower highs into the 94k cap and a descending structure that flushed to ~90,979 at 19:00, then reclaimed 92k. This resembles a descending channel/triangle breakdown attempt that failed to extend (bear trap risk) given the swift reclaim.
• Volume: Elevated on the 18:00–19:00 dip (5.6B → 8.6B), suggesting aggressive two-way trade and potential absorption near 91k. Subsequent hours held above 91.7–92.0k, a short-term constructive tell.
• RSI/Momentum divergences: Price made a marginally lower low at 19:00 vs 14:00, but momentum likely registered a higher low on 1H (bullish divergence tendency). This often precedes a corrective pop toward the breakdown origin (92.8–93.5k), contingent on holding 91–91.5k.
• 1H Ichimoku: Price dipped below the cloud and Kijun earlier; the typical play is mean-reversion attempts back to Kijun/cloud underside (92.7–93.1k). Cloud ahead appears flat-ish near that zone, implying magnetism if 91.x holds.

Moving averages (approximations)

• Daily 20SMA: ~92–95k band. Price oscillating around it: transition zone rather than a trending impulse.
• Daily 50SMA: Likely ~104–108k; Daily 200SMA: likely ~105–110k+. Price remains below both—macro still corrective. Short-term trades should respect overhead supply.
• 1H 50/200 EMAs: Price recently below the 1H 50EMA with attempts to reclaim. A reclaim of the 1H 200EMA around 92.8–93.0k would improve short-term odds for a probe into 94k.

Fibonacci analysis

• Micro swing (Dec 1 low 86.32k → Dec 3 high 94.06k):
  • 23.6%: ~92.25k (today’s close region)
  • 38.2%: ~91.21k (today’s low area bounced above this level intraday)
  • 50%: ~90.19k (key dip-buy zone)
  • 61.8%: ~89.17k (max retrace to keep immediate bullish structure intact)
• Larger swing (Nov 10 ~106.56k lower high → Nov 21 ~85.09k low): Recovery fibs put 38.2%/50%/61.8% around ~93.1k/~95.8k/~98.5k. Price is oscillating beneath the 38.2–50% band; a decisive reclaim over 94.7–95.8k is needed to flip the medium-term tone.

Pivots (Classic) using Dec 3 H/L/C (94,060.8 / 91,056.4 / 93,527.8)

• Pivot P: ~92,881.7
• R1: ~94,706.9
• S1: ~91,702.5
• R2: ~95,886.0
• S2: ~89,877.3 Current price (~92,156) sits just above S1 and below P. Mean reversion to P is a common intraday path if S1 holds. R1 coincides with the 94.7k resistance cluster.

Bollinger/Volatility squeeze check

• Bands are not in squeeze regime; volatility expanded in late Nov and is now normalizing. Price near mid-band favors ping-pong between band edges; this supports a tactical buy-the-dip, sell-the-rip approach within 90–95k until a catalyst breaks the range.

OBV/Volume profile (conceptual)

• OBV stabilized and started to curl up since Dec 1 rebound. Today’s sell volume looked heavier on the flush then tapered as price stabilized above 91k. Volume-by-price would likely show a developing node ~92–93k. A break above 93.0k can traverse a low-volume pocket toward 94–95k relatively quickly.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Post-crash sequence since Dec 1 can be seen as an initial impulsive A (86.3 → 92), B pullback shallow, C extension to ~94, followed by a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) today back toward the 38.2–50% zone. If 90.2–91.2k holds, a new push (wave 3 of a minor impulse or wave e completion in a triangle) can target 94.7–95.9k.

DeMark/Sequential (qualitative)

• The surge into Dec 3 likely advanced the count; today’s pause/dip can reset 1H counts near 7–9, which often precedes a 1–4 bar bounce. Not a perfect signal, but it aligns with a tactical rebound attempt in the coming sessions.

Mean-reversion/Z-score

• Price is hovering near the 20D mean; z-score likely near zero to +0.3 after today’s pullback. This favors range trading rather than chasing; optimal entries are closer to lower-tail supports (90.2–91.2k) with targets near resistance (94.7–95.9k).

Risk management and scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Hold above 91.0–91.7k, reclaim 92.9k pivot, rotate to 93.6–94.1k, with an extension to R1 ~94.7k. If momentum improves, a spike to 95.3–95.9k is possible but less likely in 24h without a catalyst.
• Bear case (30–35%): Lose 91.0k, probe 90.2k (50% fib). A decisive break of 90k opens 89.2k (61.8%) and S2 ~89.88k; below that jeopardizes the short-term recovery and reopens 87–88k.
• Bull extension case (10–15%): Clean reclaim and hold above 94.1k early, powering through 94.7k to test 95.8k (50% of the larger Nov downswing) within 24h.

Confluences supporting a tactical long

• Multiple supports 91.7k (S1) and 91.2k (38.2%) held on first test; buyers showed up at ~91k with elevated volume.
• 1H bullish divergence tendency at the 19:00 flush.
• Mean reversion magnet at daily pivot ~92.88k and 1H Kijun/cloud underside ~92.7–93.1k.
• Risk/reward: Long near 90.6–91.2k with targets 93.6–94.8k offers ≥1:1.5 against a protective stop under ~89.2k.

What invalidates the long idea

• An hourly close <90k and a daily close <89.2k would negate the micro higher-low structure and likely shift the next-24h bias to 87–88k.

Execution plan (tactical)

• Entry: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit in the 90.4–90.8k pocket (between 50% fib and just above S2), with tolerance to scale between 90.2–90.8k. If price never dips, a momentum add above 93.1k on reclaim + retest of pivot is acceptable but lower RR.
• Profit-taking: First scale 93.6–94.1k, main target 94.7–95.0k. If momentum is strong, trail for 95.8k.
• Protective logic: A hard stop under 89.3k (below S2 and 61.8% fib) protects against a regime shift lower.

24-hour price path projection

• Probable path: Early probe to 90.4–90.8k → recover to pivot 92.9k → friction at 93.6–94.1k → if volume confirms, extension to 94.7k by end of 24h window. Alternate: If 91.7k is reclaimed quickly in Asia, direct move to 92.9–93.6k without sweeping 90s first.

Bottom line

• The broader trend remains corrective, but the short-term structure favors a tactical long-on-dip with a defined invalidation below ~89.2–89.9k. Expect a choppy rebound toward 93.6–94.7k in the next 24 hours if 91k holds.