BTC: Oversold Spring Setup — Targeting a 24‑Hour Snapback Toward 98k

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Short‑term bounce favored within a broader downtrend. Expect a test of 96,200–98,200 if 95,400–95,600 holds. Risk of a sweep to 94,000–94,300 before higher.
• Trade idea: Counter‑trend long on a pullback, targeting R2 cluster just below 98k. Invalidation below ~93,100.

Context from the provided OHLCV data

• Regime shift: From Aug–early Oct, BTC trended up to ~124k (2025‑10‑03), then a sharp volatility event (2025‑10‑10) triggered distribution and a persistent downtrend into mid‑Nov, with capitulation 2025‑11‑14 (~94k close, heavy volume).
• Current: 95,061 (last print), consolidating just above the 11/16–11/17 lows after a large drawdown from ~112k–110k area earlier in Nov.

1. Market structure and trend analysis

• Higher timeframe structure: Lower highs since 10/29–10/30 (~113k–116k) and successive lower lows, culminating in a decisive break of 100k on 11/13–11/14. Bearish primary trend intact.
• Recent sequence: 11/14 selling climax (very high volume, wide spread), 11/15 small relief, 11/16 marginal lower low with lower volume, 11/17 bounce to ~95k. This 3‑step rhythm is indicative of a capitulation‑exhaustion‑AR (automatic rally) sequence often seen near local lows.
• Key levels from recent swings:
  • Resistance: 96,560 (11/16 H), 98,160 (pivot R2 calc), 100,000 (psychological), 101,600–102,000 (prior breakdown shelf 11/11–11/12 closes).
  • Support: 94,570 (pivot P), 94,000–94,200 (11/14/16 closing zone), 92,600 (pivot S1 proxy 92,576), 90,980 (pivot S2 proxy).
• Path of least resistance next 24h: After capitulation, typical path is mean reversion toward first resistance shelves before trend decision. That points to 96.2–98.2k if 94–95k base holds.

2. Volume and participation

• 10/10, 11/13–14: outsized volume on down moves (distribution/capitulation). 11/16 lower low printed on meaningfully lower volume than 11/14—seller exhaustion signal.
• 11/17 bounce occurred with moderate volume, consistent with an AR off the SC/ST region in Wyckoff terms. Expect volume to increase on tests of 96–98k; rejection there would confirm sellers still control the higher timeframe.
• Read: Volume profile supports a short‑term bounce but does not yet confirm a full reversal.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, approximate): After the 11/14 plunge, RSI likely sub‑30, rebounding to high‑20s/low‑30s—oversold with potential positive divergence versus the 11/16 lower low on lighter volume. That favors a bounce.
• Stochastic (daily/h4, approximate): Likely crossing up from oversold; supports 24h upside follow‑through.
• MACD (daily, approximate): Deeply negative histogram but contracting; signal line crossover not confirmed yet. Early mean‑reversion tailwind but trend still bearish.

4. Moving averages (approximations from the dataset)

• Price is well below fast MAs (10/20‑day) and likely below the 50‑day; slopes are down—bear trend context.
• Mean reversion target zones:
  • 10‑day EMA likely ~100–103k.
  • 20‑day SMA likely ~107–110k. In 24h, those are out of reach; nearby dynamic mean is the 5‑day average ~95–97k area—aligns with our immediate targets.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~4.5k–5.5k after the spike. A 1×ATR move from 95k implies 90k–100k envelope; a typical 24h swing of 2–3k is reasonable absent a fresh shock. Targeting 97.9k is within 0.6×–0.7× ATR—feasible.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx.): Price pierced/lives below the lower band since 11/13–11/16; reversion toward the band and midline favors upside toward 97–100k initially.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative, given data constraints)

• Price below Kumo, Chikou below price, Kijun likely near 100–104k. However, distance to Kijun is extended; Tenkan resistance likely ~97–99k. Typical behavior is a snapback to Tenkan after a trend extension—supports a 24h move into upper‑90s.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 10/03 high 123,945 to 11/14 low ~94,001)

• 38.2%: ~105,440
• 50.0%: ~108,973
• 61.8%: ~112,510 These are medium‑term magnets if a multi‑day bounce develops; for 24h, watch micro fibs inside the 11/14–11/17 range:
• 11/14 low ~94,000 to 11/16 high 96,564: 61.8% pullback ~95,050 (near current), 50% ~95,280. Holding above ~94,800–95,050 is constructive for a push back to 96.5–97.5k.

8. Pivot points (derived from 11/16 H/L/C = 96,564 / 92,971 / 94,177)

• Pivot P ≈ 94,570
• R1 ≈ 96,169
• R2 ≈ 98,163
• S1 ≈ 92,576
• S2 ≈ 90,977 Current price 95,061 sits above P and below R1, implying a mild bullish intraday bias until R1 is tested. Ideal long entries often cluster just above P on pullbacks.

9. Candles and pattern diagnostics

• 11/14: wide‑range bearish candle with high volume (Selling Climax). 11/16: lower low but weaker volume—a potential Secondary Test. 11/17: green close—a valid Automatic Rally starting.
• Micro pattern: A developing ascending triangle/basing behavior between ~94.3k floor and ~96.5k lid would be typical; break/hold above 96.6k opens 97.9–98.2k.

10. Wyckoff lens

• Phase A: SC (11/14) → AR (11/15/17) → ST (11/16). Price now probing Phase B. Expect range‑bound repair 94–97k with upward bias while demand tests overhead supply. An Up‑thrust After Distribution (UTAD) risk is above 98k if supply resurfaces, but that’s beyond the 24h horizon.

11. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• 5‑wave impulse down from late Oct likely completed into 11/14–11/16. Now in an A‑B‑C corrective structure. The A‑leg likely carried into 11/17; a shallow B‑pullback toward ~94.8–95.1k would set up C‑leg toward ~97.5–98.2k within 24h.

12. Order flow/liquidity considerations

• Liquidity pools: Recent equal lows ~94.1–94.2k; resting stops likely just beneath 94k. A quick liquidity sweep to ~93.6–93.9k could occur before reversal. Overhead liquidity near 96.5k (11/16 high) and 98.0–98.2k (R2 cluster).
• Execution plan prefers buying the dip into 94.8–95.0k, with contingency tolerance down to ~94.3–94.5k if swept.

13. Scenario probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish bounce to 96.2–98.2k: 55–60%
• Range chop 94–96k without breakout: 25–30%
• Bear continuation to sub‑93k in 24h: 15–20% (requires fresh negative catalyst/failed base).

14. Risk management and trade plan (for the proposed long)

• Entry: 94,900 limit (near micro 61.8% retrace and above pivot P). If missed, secondary momentum entry on a clean 1h break‑and‑hold over 96,200 is viable but offers worse R:R.
• Stop (not requested, but critical): 93,100 (below S1 and likely liquidity sweep). Risk ~1,800.
• Take‑profit: 97,900 (just below R2 98,163 and round‑number 98k). Reward ~3,000. R:R ≈ 1.7:1. Conservative alternative TP1 at 96,150 (R1) to scale.
• Invalidation: 1h close below 94,400 or repeated failures at 96,150 with rising sell volume.

15. 24‑hour path forecast

• Base case: Early dip to 94.7–95.0k, then grind to 96.2k (R1). If momentum persists and 96.6k breaks on volume, extension to 97.5–98.0k likely, with late‑session supply capping near 98.2k. Any swift sweep below 94.3–94.5k that reclaims 94.8k strengthens the long setup (spring behavior).

Confluence summary

• Oversold momentum, capitulation‑type volume dynamics, price near/below lower Bollinger, Ichimoku mean‑reversion impulse, pivot structure supportive, micro‑Fibs align with a pullback entry—all favor a 24h bounce toward 96–98k within a bearish higher‑timeframe trend. This is a counter‑trend trade; be nimble and honor invalidation.

Decision

• Bias: Buy (Long) for a 24h bounce.
• Open (limit): 94,900
• Target (take profit): 97,900
• Note: If price impulsively clears 96,600 before filling, either chase with tight risk or skip; if 94,400 fails on a closing basis, stand down, as the bounce thesis weakens.