Tradzar
Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
BTC Back at the Trapdoor: Breakdown-Retest Setup Points to Another Liquidity Sweep Toward 62.7k
Market snapshot (BTC)
- Current price: 64,062.98
- Context: A large drawdown from the prior multi-month range (~95–97k in mid‑Jan) into a sharp capitulation (Feb 5 low ~62.35k) followed by a dead‑cat bounce to ~70–72k and then a renewed selloff back into the 63–65k support zone.
1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure
Daily trend (primary)
- From Jan 14 (close ~96,929) to Feb 24 (close ~64,063) BTC has printed a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
- The late‑Jan breakdown (Jan 29–Feb 1) accelerated downside momentum; Feb 5 marked capitulation-like volume (125B) and a very large daily range.
- The rebound into Feb 13–14 (~69–70k) failed to reclaim prior breakdown levels (~72k), then rolled over—classic bear-market rally / distribution behavior.
Conclusion (daily): Dominant downtrend; rallies are being sold.
1H microstructure (intraday)
- Over Feb 24 hourly bars: early dump from ~64.9k → ~63.0k, then range/attempted stabilization, then a late bounce to ~64.4–64.5k, followed by fade back to ~64.06k.
- Intraday highs are also stepping down (lower intraday peaks after the early hours), suggesting supply overhead.
Conclusion (1H): Weak recovery; price is consolidating below resistance and remains vulnerable to another leg down.
2) Key support/resistance mapping (price-action)
Major supports
- 63,900–63,400: immediate shelf (seen on Feb 23 low ~63,924; multiple intraday reactions).
- 62,700–62,350: capitulation zone (Feb 24 day low ~62,694; Feb 5 low ~62,353). A break below this is likely to trigger stops and accelerate.
Major resistances
- 64,900–65,000: overhead near the day’s earlier high region and where sell pressure first stepped in.
- 66,900–68,200: prior daily congestion and breakdown area (Feb 18–22 region, then failed).
- 70,500–72,200: the dead‑cat bounce ceiling.
Implication: With price at 64.06k, it is closer to support than to meaningful resistance, but the overall structure favors support retests rather than clean reversals.
3) Momentum & oscillator read (inference from swings)
(Exact RSI/MACD values can’t be computed perfectly here without full rolling calculations, but we can infer regime from the magnitude/sequence of closes and rebounds.)
RSI regime (daily inference)
- The persistent decline and inability to hold rebound gains implies RSI has been in bearish/weak regime (often <50, periodically oversold).
- The Feb 5 capitulation likely pushed RSI into oversold, but the subsequent bounce was not strong enough to transition into a bull regime; instead it rolled over quickly.
MACD / trend momentum (daily inference)
- The mid‑Jan peak to late‑Feb decline implies MACD remained negative and any bullish cross from the bounce would likely have been shallow/failed.
Momentum conclusion: Bearish momentum persists; any bounce is more likely corrective than trend-changing.
4) Volatility & range analysis
Daily volatility (ATR-style inference)
- Feb 5 and Feb 6 show extremely wide ranges (e.g., 73k → 62k, then 62k → 71k). Even though ranges compressed afterwards, the market is still in a high-volatility regime.
Intraday volatility
- Feb 24 hourly bars show repeated $300–$800 swings, consistent with unstable liquidity and quick mean reversion.
Volatility implication: Expect stop-hunts around 63.4k and 62.7k, and quick snapbacks. However, in downtrends, volatility tends to resolve down more often.
5) Volume / participation
- The largest volumes occur on the big down days and bounce days (Feb 5–6), consistent with forced liquidation + bargain hunting.
- Subsequent rebound days did not regain highs; volume during the drift lower suggests distribution into rallies.
Volume conclusion: Large players likely used rebounds to reduce risk; supports may break on renewed selling.
6) Pattern & market psychology
Breakdown and retest logic
- After the crash, BTC bounced to ~70k but failed to reclaim the prior breakdown area, then returned to ~64k.
- This resembles a classic breakdown → weak retest → continuation pattern.
Support compression
- Multiple tests around 64–66k without reclaiming key resistances typically weakens support over time.
Pattern conclusion: Higher probability of another support retest (63.4k then 62.7k). A sustained reversal would require reclaiming ~65k+ and then ~66.9–68.2k, which is not currently supported by the tape.
7) Probabilistic 24h forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (highest probability):
- Choppy-to-down price action with a retest of 63,400–63,900.
- If that shelf breaks, a liquidity sweep into 62,700–62,350 is likely.
- Any bounce is likely capped near 64,800–65,000 unless a strong impulsive reclaim occurs.
Alternative (lower probability):
- A short squeeze/relief rally back to 65k, possibly 66k, but given structure it is more likely to fade.
Net directional bias (24h): Bearish / downside continuation.
Trade plan (tactical)
Decision: Sell (Short)
Rationale:
- Dominant daily downtrend.
- Failed rebound into 70–72k zone and renewed selloff.
- Price currently below nearby resistance (~64.9–65k) with room to retest the lower support band.
Optimal open (entry) price
- Prefer to short into a pullback rather than at market support.
- Open (sell) near: 64,850 (in the 64.8–65.0k supply zone). If price doesn’t retrace there, a secondary entry is a breakdown retest near 63,900 after a clear hourly close below.
Take-profit / close price
- Close (take profit) at: 62,700 (front-run the 62.35–62.7 capitulation support zone where bounce risk is high).
(Note: In a high-volatility regime, consider sizing smaller and using a defined stop above ~65.3–65.6k if you execute this plan.)