BTC Coiled Beneath 116k: Dip-Buy Setup Aiming for 116.9k Within 24 Hours

Step 1 — Market state and context

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTC/USD). Current price: 115,296.03.
• Recent path (daily): Post-Aug 13 swing high near 123,682 and Aug 31 swing low near 108,237, BTC retraced up into mid-Sept. Last three daily closes: 115,507.54 (Sep 11), 116,101.58 (Sep 12), 115,950.51 (Sep 13). Today trades modestly lower, consolidating just under the 116k resistance shelf.
• Intraday (hourly): Last 24h were tight and two-sided, 116,180 top to 115,248 bottom. The last few hours saw a drift to 115,27k–115,30k, hugging lower intraday bands and pivot support.

Step 2 — Multi-timeframe trend assessment A) Daily trend via moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~111,636. Price is ~3.3% above → bullish short-term bias and constructive momentum.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~114,900 (eyeballed from late-Jul to mid-Sep closes). Price above → intermediate trend constructive.
• 200-day SMA (contextual estimate): near 110–112k given June–Sep structure; price > 200D → long-term uptrend intact.
• Takeaway: Alignment above 20/50/200 SMAs supports buy-the-dip tendency while below local resistance.

B) Moving Average slopes and crossovers

• 20 > 50 (narrow spread), 50 trending slightly up: trend strengthening but not exuberant.
• Price compressed under a resistance band (~115.95–116.15k). If reclaimed, a momentum push likely.

C) Structure and price action (daily)

• Higher lows sequence from Aug 31 (108.24) to Sep 6 (110.22) to Sep 10 (113.96) to Sep 12 (114.79). Today’s intraday low (~115.25) keeps the higher-low cadence intact.
• Consolidation just below a well-defined pivot (around 116k) looks like a handle under resistance; a break often unleashes a test of 116.7–117.5.

D) Intraday (hourly) structure

• Range: ~932 points high-to-low over last day. Price is sitting near the lower end of the range with repeated defenses near 115.25–115.30k.
• Character: Mean-reverting micro-range with decreasing realized volatility → coiled spring potential.

Step 3 — Momentum indicators A) RSI

• Daily RSI (approx): high-50s to low-60s given the run from 108k to 116k and recent consolidation → bullish but not overbought; room to extend.
• Hourly RSI: drifted toward mid-40s after the pullback from 116.18k to 115.27k → near neutral/undershoot zone, supportive of a bounce if support holds.

B) Stochastic Oscillator (hourly)

• Near oversold after the intraday slip; curling potential → favors a tactical long from support.

C) MACD

• Daily MACD: positive and rising since early Sep; histogram likely flattening but still constructive → suggests pullbacks are buy opportunities unless 114.1–114.8 breaks.
• Hourly MACD: recently crossed down during the micro-dip; approaching zero-line. A bounce from support could trigger a bullish recross in the next few candles.

Step 4 — Volatility and bands A) Bollinger Bands (daily)

• 20SMA ~111,636; estimated 2σ ~2,500–2,700 → Upper ~114,100 + 2,500? More precisely: Upper ~116.6k; Lower ~106.6k. Current ~115.3k is below the upper band but not stretched → modest upside space before band tag, limiting immediate overbought risk.

B) Bollinger Bands (hourly)

• Bands tightened; price sits on/near the lower band (~115.25–115.30). Mean reversion suggests a move back to mid-band/VWAP (~115.8–115.9) first, then possibly upper band (~116.1+).

C) ATR (daily)

• Recent daily ATR ~2.0–3.0k. Expect next 24h envelope roughly ±1.0–1.5k from current if conditions stay similar → 114.0–116.8k plausible range; breakout could stretch toward 117.5k.

Step 5 — Ichimoku lens (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9-period mid): midpoint of recent 9-day high/low. High ~116,769 (Sep 12), low ~110,225 (Sep 6) → Tenkan ~113,497 → price above Tenkan = supportive.
• Kijun (26-period mid): high ~123,682 (Aug 13), low ~108,237 (Aug 31) → Kijun ~115,959 → price slightly below Kijun; this is the nearby resistance lid. A decisive close > Kijun would add fresh momentum.
• Cloud: Likely below price with a modestly bullish future span. Net: neutral-to-bullish, with 115.95–116.0k a key trigger.

Step 6 — Fibonacci mapping (swing Aug 13 high → Aug 31 low)

• Range: 123,682 → 108,237; Δ = 15,445.
• 23.6%: 111,884 (reclaimed previously).
• 38.2%: 114,135 (now support region).
• 50%: 115,960 (current resistance pivot, aligns with Kijun and local cap).
• 61.8%: 117,786 (higher resistance, target on breakout).
• 78.6%: 120,384 (farther target if momentum extends).
• With price at 115.30k (between 38.2% and 50%), the critical battleground is the 50% at ~115.96k.

Step 7 — Classical levels and pivots A) Horizontal support/resistance

• Supports: 115,250–115,350 (intraday S1/pivot cluster), 114,800 (Sep 12 low area), 114,135 (Fib 38.2%), 113,955 (Sep 10 close).
• Resistances: 115,960–116,150 (Fib 50% + Kijun + overhead supply), 116,770 (Sep 12 high), 117,500 (R3 proximity/round), 117,786 (Fib 61.8%).

B) Daily pivot points (derived from Sep 13 O/H/L/C)

• Pivot (P): ~115,844.
• S1: ~115,354 (today’s price is just under; this is the immediate support).
• S2: ~114,758.
• R1: ~116,441.
• R2: ~116,931.
• R3: ~117,527.
• Current price sits just under S1, frequently a mean-reversion zone back to P, then potentially R1/R2 if the lid breaks.

Step 8 — Volume analytics

• Daily volume swelled on larger directional days; recent weekend liquidity is thinner. OBV proxy since Sep 1 has been constructive with pullback days not reversing the broader accumulation.
• Intraday VWAP (approx): skewed higher (115.8–115.9) given early-session trade above 115.9; price under VWAP → near-term upside mean reversion bias.

Step 9 — Pattern recognition and channels

• Daily: Ascending reaction off 108k lows with a small consolidation just under 116k resembles a flat-top consolidation or a shallow bull flag handle.
• Hourly: Sideways box 115.25–116.18 with lower wicks near 115.25 showing demand; repeated failure to break 116.18 implies a breakout build-up. Given coil characteristics and uptrend context, upside resolution slightly more probable.

Step 10 — Advanced overlays A) Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: Sep 1–3 bounce, Wave 2: shallow pullback, Wave 3: advance into Sep 12 high (116.77), Wave 4: current sideways-to-down drift), potential Wave 5 target: 117.5–117.8 (aligning with R3 and 61.8% Fib). Within 24h, R2 (116.93) is a practical first objective.

B) Parabolic SAR

• Daily SAR likely below price → bullish. On hourly, SAR may have flipped above during the micro-dip; a quick reclaim would add fuel for a push to mid-band/upper-band.

C) Market profile/value area (qualitative)

• Value developing around 115.8–116.0; price trading below value often rotates back toward it absent fresh selling.

Step 11 — Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Hold 115.25–115.35, rotate to 115.85 pivot, then break 115.96–116.15 into 116.44 (R1). Momentum extension tags 116.93 (R2). Close near 116.6–116.9.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong break above 116.93 with follow-through toward 117.5–117.8 (R3/Fib 61.8%) on improving liquidity into Monday Asia/Europe sessions.
• Bear risk (20%): Lose 115.25 support, slip to 114.76 (S2) and test 114.1–114.3 (Fib 38.2% / prior swing zone). This would threaten the short-term structure but not the broader uptrend unless 113.95 then 113.45 give way.

Step 12 — Trade plan and risk-reward

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within support cluster, with add-on or confirmation entry on a 116k break.
• Rationale: Price above 20/50 SMAs, daily momentum constructive, hourly near-band support, pivot confluence at S1, Fib 50% overhead as a breakout trigger. VWAP below suggests a pullback entry offers positive skew.
• Entry (optimal): Limit near 115,250–115,300 to capture the mean-reversion bounce. Specific: 115,260 (tight to S1, historically defended today).
• Targets: First target 115,840–115,900 (pivot), second 116,440 (R1), primary 116,930 (R2). Stretch: 117,500–117,800 if momentum accelerates.
• Risk context: A logical protective stop (not requested in fields) would sit below 114,680–114,750 (under S2 and under Sep 12 low zone) to avoid whipsaws, creating an R:R of roughly 1.8–2.5x to the 116.93 objective, higher if stretch targets are achieved.

Step 13 — Key confirmations and invalidations

• Bull confirmation: 30–60m close back above 115,600 then 115,840 (pivot), and especially a 1h close > 115,960 (Fib 50%/Kijun). Volume uptick on the break improves odds of R1/R2 test.
• Invalidation: Clean hourly close below 115,200 followed by acceptance under 114,950 opens the door to 114,760 → 114,130.

Step 14 — Summary view

• The confluence of supports at 115.25–115.35 (S1, lower hourly band, demand wicks), price being above key daily SMAs, and overhead resistance tightly defined at ~115.96–116.15 provides a favorable asymmetric long: buy near support, aim for the pivot and R1/R2, with clear invalidation if support breaks.
• 24h projection: 60% probability BTC trades 116.4–116.9 at some point; 25% that it spikes 117.5–117.8; 15% that it undercuts 114.8 before rebounding.

Decision: Buy (Long) on a dip to support with a primary take-profit at R2 (116,930). If dip does not fill, a momentum alternative is a breakout buy above 115,960 with similar targets.