BTC’s Inside-Day Coil at the 0.618 Gate: Sell the Pop Before the Next Leg Lower

Comprehensive multi-timeframe, multi-tool read of BTC over the past quarter and the last 24 hours, then a 24-hour tactical plan.

1. Market regime and structure (Daily timeframe)

• Context: After topping above 120k in early October, BTC shifted into a persistent distribution and then a capitulation leg. Key acceleration down days: Oct 10 (major gap/impulse lower), early Nov continuation (Nov 04–14), and a fresh flush into Nov 20–21, printing a local low at 80,659.
• Current: Price 84,360 sits well below the October/November value area (110–125k) and even below the mid-November cluster (95–105k). This is a structurally bearish regime with any bounces treated as rallies within a broader downtrend unless reclaimed levels invalidate.
• Candles: Nov 21 printed a long lower-wick hammer-like candle (open 86,529, low 80,660, close 85,091) indicating some demand response. Today (Nov 22) is an inside day so far (high 85,503, low 83,491 vs yesterday’s wider range), a classic volatility contraction after a hammer—often a coil before the next impulse.
• Support/resistance (daily): • Support: 80,660 (Nov 21 low), then round 80k. • Resistance: 87,380 (Nov 21 high), 90–92k zone, and larger 94–96k supply above.
• Fibonacci of last swing (87,381 → 80,660, Δ ≈ 6,721): • 38.2%: ≈ 83,230 (tested/held). • 50%: ≈ 84,020 (currently hovering around/above). • 61.8%: ≈ 84,810 (key intraday cap). • 78.6%: ≈ 85,930 (next resistance if 61.8 breaks). This aligns with intraday behavior: repeated supply response around 84.7–85.0k.
• Pivots (classic) using Nov 21 H/L/C (87,381/80,660/85,091): • Pivot P ≈ 84,377—today’s price is gravitating near this mean. • S1 ≈ 81,373, R1 ≈ 88,094. Base case for an inside-day continuation is rotation about P with a lean toward S1 in a bearish regime unless a decisive reclaim above 85.9k occurs.

2. Intraday (1H) structure and momentum

• Range and micro-structure: From 21 Nov 22:00 to 22 Nov 21:56, BTC oscillated largely 83.5–85.5k with narrowing amplitude: • Lower highs: ~85,503 (00:00), ~85,120 (01:00), ~84,756 (16:00) → mild descending supply line. • Higher lows: ~83,519 (10:00), ~83,586 (12:00), ~83,897 (14:00) → rising demand line. • Net effect: a contracting triangle/squeeze around the daily pivot (~84.38k). In bearish regimes, such coils statistically resolve in the direction of the prevailing larger trend (down) unless invalidated.
• 20-hour SMA (approx) ≈ 84,279. Price ≈ 84,360 sits marginally above this midline—neutral to slightly positive intraday tilt, but still within the squeeze.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) qualitative: • Price is hugging the middle band; bands narrowed versus the early session (volatility compression). Upper band estimated mid-85s, lower band low-83s. A breakout impulse is likely within 12–24 hours as the coil matures.
• RSI(14) 1H (explicit calc): ≈ 56.9. This is above neutral, reflecting a modest recovery from the morning lows but not overbought—room both ways.
• MACD (1H) qualitative: Histogram near flat/zero after a slight positive stretch—momentum is neutralizing into the triangle. A fresh expansion move will likely control the next 24h direction.
• ATR(14) 1H qualitative: Hourly ranges commonly 400–900; recent bars compressing toward the lower end, consistent with squeeze mechanics.

3. Volume and participation

• Daily: Very heavy on selloffs (Nov 14, Nov 21), suggesting capitulation and forced flows; today’s activity is lighter—typical for a weekend inside day. Historically, thin weekend liquidity can exaggerate directional moves post-squeeze.
• Intraday: Mixed/patchy prints; the pattern of repeated supply at ~84.8–85.0k and again near 85.5–85.9k suggests overhead supply is still active.

4. Ichimoku (conceptual, 1H)

• With the last 9-hour high/low and mid calculations, Tenkan sits around the mid-84k’s; price is orbiting that zone. Kijun/Cloud (26/52) context would likely still be flat-to-down given the broader downtrend; the key is that price hasn’t convincingly established a trend above the faster lines—consistent with a neutral-to-bearish coil.

5. Pattern diagnostics

• Daily: Inside day after a hammer—the next session’s breakout matters. Within a larger downtrend, such a two-step sequence often gives a corrective pop into Fibo/S/R followed by trend continuation unless bulls reclaim a critical invalidation level (here ≈ 85.9–86.2k).
• 1H: Symmetrical triangle/mini-squeeze centered near the daily pivot, with repeated rejection near the 61.8% retrace (≈84.81k). Probabilistically, downside continuation has the edge unless 85.9k is reclaimed with authority.
• Channel context: The overall decline since Nov 10 looks like a downward channel; current price is consolidating in its lower half. Bear flags frequently break lower after 12–36 hours of compression.

6. Confluences and key levels for the next 24 hours

• Resistance cluster: 84.8k (61.8% retrace) → 85.5k (session supply) → 85.9–86.0k (78.6% retrace/invalidator). Above 86.0k, the squeeze likely resolves up toward 87.4k (prior day’s high) where larger supply sits.
• Supports: 84.0k (50% retrace), 83.2–83.5k (38.2% + today’s morning low), then 81.4k (daily S1 pivot) and 80.7–80.0k (capitulation low/round number). If the coil resolves down, 83.2k is first magnet; a momentum extension can probe 82.4k–81.9k, with tail risk toward 81.4k.

7. Probabilistic pathing (24h)

• Base case (55%): Coil resolves lower. Price either rejects 84.8–85.0k or makes a stop-run toward 85.6–85.9k then fails, sliding to 83.2–83.5k. If momentum persists, extension toward 82.4k–81.9k before a late-session bounce.
• Bull case (30%): Sustained reclaim above 85.9k (H1 close basis) triggers a squeeze to 86.8–87.4k. Over 87.4k, the day can morph into a trend day up toward 88.1k (R1 pivot) but that’s less likely within the prevailing downtrend without fresh catalysts.
• Chop case (15%): Continued range 83.5–85.5k as weekend liquidity stays thin, with mean reversion about the pivot (~84.38k).

8. Trade plan and risk management (tactical, 12–24h)

• Bias: Short the pop into resistance in a bearish regime with a tight invalidation above the 78.6% retrace.
• Entry (limit sell): 84,850 (confluent with 61.8% retrace ≈84,810 and repeated intraday supply).
• Stop (invalidation, discretionary): 86,050–86,200 (above 78.6% retrace and the day’s likely failure zone; if reclaimed with acceptance, triangle likely resolves up).
• Take-profit (primary): 83,250 (38.2% retrace + intraday demand cluster), with potential runner to 82,400 if momentum accelerates.
• Risk/reward: From 84,850 entry to 83,250 TP ≈ 1,600 points potential vs ~1,200–1,350 points risk to invalidation → roughly 1.2–1.3:1 on the first target; improves notably if partials are left for 82.4k.
• Alternate flip plan: If price reclaims and holds above 85,950–86,050 on hourly closes, abandon the short idea and flip long targeting 87,400 with tight risk back below 85,600.

9. Indicator-by-indicator verdict

• Trend/MAs: Bearish on higher TF; 1H neutral-to-slightly positive but inside a squeeze; favors selling rallies.
• RSI/Stoch: RSI ~57 on 1H—room both ways, not a constraint; after a pop into resistance, it likely diverges or rolls.
• MACD: Flat near zero → ripe for expansion move; trend context tilts odds to the downside unless bulls force a decisive momentum cross above 85.9k.
• Bollinger/ATR: Compression favors an imminent breakout; with macro downtrend, downside resolution slightly more probable.
• Fibs/Pivots: 61.8% at ~84.81k + daily Pivot ~84.38k + 78.6% ~85.93k give a clean framework for entry/stop/TP.
• Candles/Patterns: Inside day after hammer—often resolves with a feint higher then continuation lower; hourly triangle supports that feint/rollover narrative.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Expect a test/retest of 84.8–85.0k; if rejected, look for 83.2–83.5k first, with momentum risk to 82.4k–81.9k. Invalidation of the short bias sits above 85.95–86.05k; above there, a squeeze toward 87.4k can unfold. Given regime, the higher-odds tactical play is to Sell a rally into 84.85k with a TP at 83.25k over the next 24 hours.