BTC: Fade the Pop — Sell the R1/H5 Confluence for a Drive to S1

Comprehensive multi-timeframe BTC analysis (data through 2025-11-17 05:07 UTC)

1. Market context and structure

• Higher-timeframe regime (daily): BTC is in a well-established downswing since early October. After peaking near 126k (Oct 6), price cascaded through a series of lower highs/lows, breaking 110k in late Oct/early Nov, then the 100k psychological handle on Nov 13–14. The most recent daily lows clustered around 94k (Nov 14 close ~94,398; Nov 16 close ~94,177), with intraday probes to ~92,971 (Nov 16 low). This keeps the daily market structure conclusively bearish.
• Intermediate swing map: Lower-high sequence from 124–126k → 122.4k (Oct 4–6) → 118–121k (Oct 1–3/Oct 7–9) → 115–117k (Oct 26–31) → 110–112k early Nov → sub-100k mid-Nov. No confirmed daily higher-high has formed; the bounce attempts have been sold.
• Intraday (hourly) context: Since 22:00 UTC Nov 16, price rebounded from ~93.0–93.4k to ~95.4–95.5k, consolidating around 95.0k. The hourly shows a modest corrective uptick within a broader daily downtrend.

2. Key levels: Supply/demand and liquidity

• Major resistance stack above: • 95.4–95.6k: Intraday supply from hourly highs (Nov 17 ~95.43–95.46k). Also aligns with intraday cloud/Kijun/vWAP resistance (see Ichimoku/VWAP below). • 96.15–96.20k: Strong confluence (Classic Pivot R1 ≈ 96,170; Camarilla H5 ≈ 96,153). Expect sell programs and resting offers here. • 98.16k: Classic Pivot R2; also near prior breakdown pocket; likely heavy supply if reached. • 99.75–100.0k: R3 zone + round-number magnet/overhead supply.
• Support below: • 94.57k: Classic Pivot (P) from Nov 16’s H/L/C; a balance point that’s already been in play intraday. • 93.85–93.52k: Camarilla L3/L4 cluster; local demand/stop pockets. • 92.58k: Classic Pivot S1; very clean downside magnet in the next 24h. • 92.20k: Camarilla L5; deeper sweep level consistent with trend.
• Liquidity notes: There are likely resting stops below the recent swing low 92.97k (Nov 16). A classic pattern is a short squeeze to R1 (96.1–96.6k) to harvest late longs, followed by a reversal that drives price through 94.6k toward 93s/92s, sweeping liquidity below 93k.

3. Volume/Participation

• Daily volume expanded during down legs (Oct 10, Nov 4, Nov 13–14), consistent with distribution and trend continuation. Bounce phases show relatively lighter participation, typical of corrective upticks.
• Today’s hourly tape: modest volumes with the largest bar around the 04:00 UTC hour, but overall nothing indicating a strong initiative buy-side drive. Leans toward a corrective rally rather than a trend change.

4. Trend and moving averages (qualitative, multi-timeframe)

• Daily MA stack: Price trades well below the short/mid moving averages (e.g., 20/50-day). The alignment (Price < 20D < 50D) is bearish. The 20D mean is likely around ~105k (ballpark), underscoring how stretched the downtrend has been; typically this supports mean reversion bounces, but within 24h the dominant daily trend tends to cap bounces near resistance.
• 4H/1H MAs: Short-term MAs have curled up slightly with the bounce, but price is failing to press away from the cluster decisively. Expect these lower timeframes to roll if resistance at 95.5–96.2k holds.

5. Oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• Daily RSI: After the strong selloff, daily momentum is in/near oversold territory. This encourages tactical bounces into resistance but does not itself reverse the downtrend.
• Hourly RSI/Stochastics: The hourly oscillators are mid-to-upper ranges after the bounce; a push into R1 would likely tip them into overbought, favoring a fade back toward pivot/S1 in alignment with the daily trend.
• MACD: Daily MACD is below zero with negative signal spread, consistent with bearish momentum. On the hourly, MACD has crossed up mildly with the bounce; this is typical of countertrend rallies within a larger down leg.

6. Volatility and ATR

• Recent daily true range has expanded materially since early November. A rough 14-day ATR proxy sits around 4,500–5,500 USD. Given current price ~95k, a plausible 24h envelope is ~±5k. This places 92.5–92.0k (S1/L5) within reach if a rejection occurs from the 96.1–96.6k confluence.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, qualitative): Price has been walking the lower band; bands widened into the Nov 13–14 break and are beginning to stabilize. A tag of the 20D mid-band (~105k) would be a standard mean reversion over a multi-day horizon, but within 24h a move to the upper intraday band/R1 looks more likely before reversion back to lower supports.

7. VWAP and mean reversion

• Intraday session VWAP (approx.): With price oscillating around 95k and heavier volume near 04:00 UTC around 95.0k, current trades are near VWAP, suggesting a balanced tape. A push toward 95.8–96.2k would stretch price above VWAP enough to set up a mean reversion short back to P (94.57k) and potentially S1 (92.58k).

8. Ichimoku (multi-timeframe read)

• Daily: Price trades well below the Kijun and under the Cloud; Senkou Span A is sloping down. Classic bearish configuration; rallies into the Tenkan/Kijun are typically sold. Implication: Use strength to sell.
• Hourly: Price is near/under the underside of the cloud/Kijun cluster around 95.3–95.6k. Expect cloud resistance to align with the pivot R1 (96.1k) as a likely turning region.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 126.2k (Oct 6) → 94.0k (Nov 14). 23.6% retrace ≈ 101.6k; 38.2% ≈ 106.3k; 50% ≈ 110.1k. These are all well above current price, reinforcing that any near-term bounce is corrective unless it reclaims >101–106k.
• Micro swing (Nov 16 low 92,971 → Nov 17 high ~95,458): 61.8% pullback from this micro-bounce would be ~93.9k, very close to the 94k shelf and Camarilla L3/L4 cluster, consistent with a two-legged correction pattern that can extend to S1 if the pivot (94.57k) gives way.

10. Elliott Wave perspective (heuristic)

• The decline from ~126k to ~94k can be framed as a completed or nearly completed five-wave impulse down on the daily. Intraday, the move from ~93k to ~95.5k resembles a corrective a-b-c (or wave 4 of a smaller degree). A final press into 96.1–96.6k would complete a proportional corrective structure before a wave down targeting the 93–92.5k area.

11. Pivot points (precise, based on Nov 16 H/L/C)

• Inputs: H = 96,564.19; L = 92,971.16; C = 94,177.08
• Classic Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 94,570.81
• R1 ≈ 96,170.46; S1 ≈ 92,577.43
• R2 ≈ 98,163.83; S2 ≈ 90,977.79
• R3 ≈ 99,763.48
• Camarilla (using 1.1×range): • H3 ≈ 94,506.44; H4 ≈ 94,835.80; H5 ≈ 96,153.24 • L3 ≈ 93,847.72; L4 ≈ 93,518.36; L5 ≈ 92,200.92
• Confluence highlight: R1 (96,170) ≈ Camarilla H5 (96,153). This is a high-probability reaction zone for a fade in a downtrend.

12. Bollinger Bands (hourly) and band behavior

• The hourly band expansion during the bounce is modest; price has shifted from the lower band toward the upper/middle. A tag of the upper band coinciding with 96.1–96.6k would be a classic spot to fade back to the mid-band (~94.8–95.0k) and then to the lower band (~93s) if momentum turns.

13. Order flow/OBV (qualitative)

• OBV equivalent trend is down on daily, mirroring distribution. Without evidence of strong accumulation (no persistent high-volume up closes), rallies are expected to meet supply overhead.

14. Risk sentiment and session timing

• Weekends often produce thin liquidity bounces that fade on Monday when fuller liquidity returns. The next 24 hours span Asia → EU → US sessions; historically, early week sessions have punished weak longs after weekend lifts. A probe higher into EU/early US and subsequent reversal is a common path.

15. Strategy synthesis and 24-hour path projection

• Bias: Bearish pullback short.
• Base case (60–65% probability):
  1. Early push to 95.8–96.6k, ideally tapping the 96,150–96,200 confluence (R1/H5).
  2. Momentum stalls; oscillators overbought on the hourly; failure to accept above R1.
  3. Reversion back through 95.0 → 94.57k (Pivot P) → continuation to 93.8–93.5k (Camarilla L3/L4) → extension toward 92.6k (S1) as stops below 93k get swept.
• Alternate (25–30% probability): Stronger squeeze to R2 (~98,164) before failing. If reached, that would still be within the daily downtrend envelope and a place to reassess/add to shorts tactically. Not the base case within 24h but possible under thin-liquidity squeeze.
• Low-probability reversal (5–10%): Acceptance and hold above R2 (98.2k) that transitions structure toward 100–101.6k. This would require a notable shift in participation that is not visible yet in the data.

16. Trade plan (tactical execution)

• Setup: Bearish pullback short into confluence resistance.
• Entry: Limit sell at 96,153–96,170 zone (we’ll specify a single price in the decision block). This aligns with Classic R1 and Camarilla H5, the day’s strongest confluence.
• Target: 92,580 area (Classic S1 ≈ 92,577), a natural take-profit magnet in trend.
• Rationale for entry/target: Confluence of multiple independent methods (pivots, Camarilla, intraday Ichimoku/cloud underside, hourly overbought risk, daily trend) increases reaction odds at ~96.15–96.17k. S1 target captures the most probable extension if the pivot (94.57k) gives way post-rejection.
• Time expectation: Entry likely during Asia-to-Europe handoff or early EU; target achievable within the 24h window given the 4.5–5.5k recent ATR.

17. Risk management and invalidation (contextual)

• Invalidation for the idea is sustained acceptance above ~96.7–97.0k (hourly closes holding above confluence plus continuation). A further squeeze to ~98.16k (R2) would put shorts under pressure, though still within the higher-timeframe downtrend.
• If price never reaches the 96.15–96.20k sell zone and instead breaks below 94.57k directly, the plan may not trigger; that’s acceptable given the focus on optimal R:R entries.

18. Bottom line

• The dominant daily trend is down. The intraday bounce is corrective and stalling under layered resistance. The highest-probability tactical play over the next 24 hours is to fade strength into 96.15–96.20k, targeting a move toward 92.6k as liquidity below recent lows is attractive and within ATR reach.

Forecast for next 24 hours

• Path: Pop to 95.8–96.6k → rejection → slide to 94.6k (pivot) → push to 93.5k → extension into 92.6k (S1) by end of window.
• Decision: Sell the rip into R1/H5 confluence and cover near S1.