BTC Poised for Breakdown: Sell the Bounce Near 87.45k as 87k Support Erodes

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis and 24h outlook

1. Market structure and context (Daily)

• Trend since October: After a Q4 spike to 120–126k (early Oct), BTC rolled into a persistent downtrend. The October breakdown to ~104k was followed by lower highs through November and a capitulation low near 80.66k (Nov 21). December produced a rebound to 94.6k (Dec 9) and then a broad, choppy range with a bearish bias.
• Current regime: Sideways-to-down within a 86.0–90.5k band for the last two weeks, with repeated rejections near 90–90.5k and increasingly frequent probes into 86.5–87.2k support. This is developing into a descending triangle (falling highs against a relatively flat support zone).
• Today’s candle (so far): Intraday rally to ~90.2k failed; price faded steadily and closed back near 87.2k. That’s a bearish upper-wick day, aligned with supply at the descending trendline.

2. Intraday structure (1H)

• Sequence: 02:00–04:00 UTC push to 90.0–90.2k, then consistent lower highs: ~88.0k (14:00), ~87.9k (18:00), ~87.5k (20:00). Lows repeatedly tested 87.1–87.3k with a deeper jab to ~86.76k around 12:00.
• Implication: Distribution pattern. Lower highs + flatish support typically resolve lower; each retest of 87k weakens the floor.

3. Key levels (confluence)

• Supports: 86.65k (Fib 61.8% of the 84.44–90.50k upswing), 86.41k/86.61k (Dec 24/23 lows), 85.46k (Dec 18 swing low), 85.0k round number.
• Resistances: 87.49–87.74k (yesterday’s pivot S1/P zone), 88.25–88.30k (20‑day SMA cluster and Fib 38.2% of recent swing), 89.0k–89.3k (prior supply), 90.2–90.5k (descending trendline/late-Dec highs).
• Volume nodes: Heaviest recent churn between 87.2–87.8k; thin air below 86.6k down to 85.5k suggests stops could accelerate a move once 86.6k breaks.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• 10‑day SMA ≈ 87.79k (approximate). Price (87.21k) is below 10‑SMA.
• 20‑day SMA ≈ 88.26k (computed from the last 20 closes). Price is below the 20‑SMA.
• 50‑day SMA (approximate) ≈ 92–93k. The 20‑SMA is below the 50‑SMA, and price is below both. Bearish stack: Price < 10 < 20 < 50.
• 1H MAs: Price trades below short and medium-term intraday MAs; rallies are failing beneath them—consistent with selling spikes into strength.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx.): ~54. Neutral-to-mildly positive, but price action is failing at resistance and sitting under key MAs—hidden bearishness despite a not-oversold RSI.
• Stochastic (daily, approx.): %K ~46 after computing 14‑period range. Mid-zone, not oversold; leaves room for a fresh downside push.
• MACD (daily): Likely slightly negative and flat-to-falling. Histogram near zero to marginally negative, consistent with a meandering bearish regime.
• ADX (daily): Trend strength moderate/low but likely ticking up as the range compresses and lower highs persist; room for an ADX expansion if 86.6k breaks.
• Parabolic SAR (daily): Likely above price given the sequence of lower highs—bearish bias until reclaimed.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline ~88.26k. Rough band estimate upper ~91.6k, lower ~84.9k. Price is below the mid-band and in the lower half of the envelope, but not at extremes—ample space to test 86.6k/85.5k without technical ‘oversold’ constraints.
• ATR(14) daily (approx.): ~1.8–2.2k. A 24h swing from 87.2k to mid‑85k is feasible.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9) near ~87.8–88.0k; Kijun (26) likely ~89–90k. Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud projected above. A classic bearish arrangement with resistance overhead.

8. Fibonacci clusters

• Recent swing 84.44k → 90.50k: 38.2% ~88.28k (near 20‑SMA), 50% ~87.47k, 61.8% ~86.65k. Price is toggling between 50% and 61.8%. A sustained break below 86.65k tilts toward a retrace of the full swing into 85.0–84.5k.
• Larger swing 80.66k → 94.60k: 50% ~87.63k; 61.8% ~85.99k. Current price just below the 50% pivot; a magnet toward ~86.0k emerges on weakness.

9. Pattern analysis

• Descending triangle: Lower highs (90.5k → 90.2k) against a base at 86.6–87.2k. Height ≈ 3.5–4.0k. A clean breakdown through ~86.6k projects 83.0–83.5k in extension. Within 24h, a partial move to ~85.5–86.0k is realistic.
• Candlesticks: Today’s failure above 90k with a fade to the lower range suggests supply control. Multiple small-bodied 1H candles with lower highs indicate persistent selling on rallies.

10. Pivots and intraday reference levels

• Prior day (12/28) classic pivot P ≈ 87.74k; S1 ≈ 87.49k; S2 ≈ 87.15k; R1 ≈ 88.08k. Today’s tape traded below P and struggled near S1/S2, respecting the bearish side of pivots. Selling near ~87.5k lines up with both pivots and Fibonacci 50%.

11. Mean reversion vs. momentum

• Mean reversion case: A quick snap to the 20‑SMA (~88.26k) is possible if 87.5k is reclaimed; however each attempt is capped beneath the descending trendline. Without a decisive reclaim of 88.3–88.9k, bounces look sellable.
• Momentum case: Repeated 87k tests plus lower highs show sellers in control. A drift to 86.6k with potential stop cascade to ~86.0k/85.5k is favored.

12. Elliott-wave style read (heuristic)

• ABC corrective bounce from Dec 18 low: A (84.4k→90.5k), B (to ~86.6–87.5k), C failed below prior high (~90.2k today). Failure of C under A’s top often preludes a new impulsive down leg toward or below B.

13. Liquidity and timing

• Year-end liquidity is thin; moves can be abrupt. Asia open often extends prevailing micro-trend. Given the repeated lower highs into the close, risk skews to a downside test early in the next session.

14. 24-hour probability map (qualitative)

• Bearish continuation toward 85.5–86.2k: ~60–65%.
• Range-bound chop 86.8–88.4k (mean reversion but capped): ~25–30%.
• Bull breakout above 88.9k leading to 89.8–90.5k retest: ~10–15% (requires reclaim of 88.3k 20‑SMA and a clean break over the descending line).

Synthesis and trading plan

• Confluence is bearish: price below 10/20/50 SMAs, failed retests at the descending trendline, repeated support probes at ~87k, and intraday lower highs. Momentum is not oversold, giving room for another leg down.
• Tactics: Sell the bounce into 87.4–87.6k where Fibonacci 50%, prior S1, and local supply converge. First target into 86.0–85.8k aligns with ATR and the 61.8% retrace cluster. Invalidation for the short thesis sits above 88.9–89.3k (break and hold), but that’s beyond this plan’s scope.

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

• Rationale: Bearish structure with a likely 24h probe of 86.6k and potential extension to ~85.8k. Favorable reward-to-risk by entering on a small uptick rather than chasing the bid.

Execution details

• Optimal short entry: 87,450 (limit sell on a minor bounce). If no bounce, consider a staged entry around market with tight risk (not part of the formal order spec here).
• Take-profit (24h horizon): 85,800. This targets the lower part of the recent cluster just through 86.0k, front-runs deeper liquidity at 85.5k, and is within a typical 1‑day ATR swing.
• Risk guidance (informational): A prudent stop for this idea would sit above 88,400–88,900 (reclaim of 20‑SMA and break of short-term supply). Not required by the prompt but essential for risk control.

What would flip the view

• A firm reclaim and hold above 88.9k with rising 1H volume, followed by a 90.2–90.5k breakout, would invalidate the descending triangle and open 91.6–92.0k reversion to the 50‑SMA trajectory.

Bottom line

• With price trapped under the 20‑SMA and carving lower highs, the path of least resistance over the next 24h is a downside test of 86.6k with a good chance to print into 86.0–85.8k. The setup favors shorting a bounce rather than selling the low; hence a 87,450 sell entry with 85,800 take-profit.