BTC breaks 100k: Sell the bounce toward 96.6k, target 92k as markdown accelerates

Executive summary

• Regime: Strong risk-off. BTC has broken the psychologically critical 100,000 handle with expanding volume and volatility, printing a new multi‑month low at 94,260 and currently trading ~95,000. Structure is lower highs/lower lows across daily and intraday charts. Momentum and trend indicators are firmly bearish, with tactical oversold conditions suggesting bounces are likely to be sold.
• 24h bias: Bearish continuation with rallies into 96.0k–98.0k favored for selling. High-probability magnet zone 92.0k–93.0k if 94.0k gives way.
• Plan: Short a bounce (dead‑cat) toward 96.6k with a protective stop above reclaimed 100.8k; initial target 92.0k within 24–36h. If price reclaims and holds above 100.0k–100.8k (hourly close and hold), bearish thesis weakens.

Market structure and price action

• Multi‑week context: From the early October peak (125,559 on Oct 5), BTC has stair‑stepped down: sharp break Oct 10, failed rebounds late Oct, acceleration lower in early November, and a decisive breakdown below 100k on Nov 14. This marks a trend transition from distribution to markdown.
• Fresh breakdown: Today’s flush to 94,260 sets a lower low versus Nov 4 low (98,962). No recent horizontal support exists in the provided data below ~99k; price is searching for new demand zones (likely at round numbers: 95k, 92k, 90k).
• Intraday texture (Nov 14 h1): Waterfall from ~99.7k to 94.3k with heavy volume during 20:00 UTC hour, followed by a modest bounce to ~95k. The 20:00 hourly candle is a wide‑range bearish bar closing near lows—classic momentum continuation signal. The 21:00 bar’s tepid retrace implies weak dip‑buying.

Trend and moving averages

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 106k (rough estimate via last 20 closes). Price ~95k sits ~10–11% below the 20‑SMA; lower Bollinger band tag/penetration confirms trend acceleration.
• 50‑day/100‑day (estimated) slope down: Based on rolling closes from mid‑Sept onward (~112–116k region), price is decisively below both. The MA stack (short < medium < long) is fully bearish; rallies toward the 20‑SMA (≈106k) should face supply.
• EMA ribbon (8/21/34) on daily likely fanned bearishly since late Oct; on hourly, the ribbon is above price and acts as dynamic resistance.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely sub‑30 after today’s drop—oversold within a downtrend. In bear regimes, oversold can persist; expect countertrend bounces to unwind RSI toward 35–40 before sellers re‑enter.
• Hourly RSI: Mild bullish divergence hints (lower price at 20:00 vs. earlier session; momentum less negative) can power a bounce to 96–97k, but signal is weak relative to the trend impulse.
• MACD (daily/hourly): Below signal and zero lines; histogram expanding negative on the break—supports continuation after corrective rallies.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily rough estimate: ~5–6k. Today’s true range (~5.5k+) aligns with a volatility expansion. Within 24h, a ±1 ATR swing from 95k implies 90–100k envelope, reinforcing 92k–93k as reachable on continuation.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Lower band likely in the 94–96k area; price pierced/rode the lower band—typical of trend days. Expect mean‑revert bounces to the midline only after sellers exhaust intraday; midline sits near the 20‑SMA (~106k), which is distant—thus bounces are likely limited to band‑walks rather than full reversion.

Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: High 125,559 (Oct 5) to today’s low 94,260.
  • 38.2% retracement: ~106,215 (confluent with 20‑SMA—strong resistance).
  • 50%: ~109,910.
  • 61.8%: ~113,605. These are upside barriers if a larger relief rally starts; unlikely to be reached in 24h without a squeeze.
• Minor swing (Nov 9 high ~106k to Nov 13 close 99.7k, then impulse to 94.26k): The 1.272–1.618 extensions projected ~95.6k–94.2k; we’ve hit 1.618. Next extension (2.0) projects ~92.8k—aligns with the 92–93k target zone.

Volume, participation, and VWAP

• Volume confirmation: Today’s intraday volume spiked on the breakdown hours (19–20 UTC), validating the move. High volume on down bars > up bars = distribution.
• Anchored VWAP (aVWAP) from the 20:00 breakdown hour should sit ~95.2–95.8k; price oscillating around/below it suggests sellers defending near that band. Optimal short entries are typically just above aVWAP on weak bounces.
• VPVR (proxy inference): Recent highest turnover occurred 108–114k in late Oct; low‑volume pocket 96–100k facilitated the fast drop. Below 95k, the next likely liquidity pockets are near 92–93k and 90k.

Ichimoku (daily/hourly)

• Daily: Price well below Tenkan (~103–104k) and Kijun (~110k) with Kumo above—bearish. Span A < Span B and expanding—momentum down.
• Hourly: Price below cloud; any bounce into the cloud base (96.5–97.5k) should meet supply.

Classical patterns and Wyckoff lens

• Head‑and‑Shoulders (daily): Left shoulder ~115–116k (late Sep), head 125.6k (Oct 5), right shoulder ~114–116k (late Oct). Neckline ~106–108k was broken in early Nov. Measured move ~18k projects to ~90k, still unfilled—supports 90–92k downside targets.
• Wyckoff: Distribution complete; now in markdown. Today’s wide‑range decline with heavy volume resembles a Sign of Weakness (SOW) followed by a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) on bounces.

Candlestick reads

• Daily (in progress): Large red body breaking 100k; likely a bearish continuation day unless a strong tail forms into close.
• Hourly: 20:00 bar closed near its lows (no hammer), 21:00 modest green. This is more consistent with bear trend continuation than a durable low.

Pivot points (derived from Nov 13: H 104,005, L 97,989, C 99,697)

• Pivot P ≈ 100,563; R1 ≈ 103,137; S1 ≈ 97,121; R2 ≈ 106,579; S2 ≈ 94,547.
• Today pierced S2 (low 94,260), then bounced minimally—classic trend day behavior where supports fail progressively.

Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• From Oct 5 top: wave 1 down into Oct 10; wave 2 corrective into mid‑Oct; wave 3 down early Nov; wave 4 sideways 101–106k; wave 5 impulse today breaking 100k. Typical 5th‑wave targets cluster at 1.618 and 2.0 extensions of prior minor swing, aligning with 94.2k (hit) and 92.8k (next).

DeMark/Sequential (heuristic)

• Daily likely on bar 7–9 of a downside setup into today/tomorrow. A TD9 could prompt a tactical bounce, but the stronger signal is the completed break of 100k—expect bounces to be sold until a clear TDST reclaim occurs above ~100–101k.

Stochastic oscillators

• Daily stoch oversold and embedded; in trends this can stay pinned. Hourly stoch up‑cross from oversold supports a bounce into resistance, ideal for a short entry.

Risk, scenarios, and 24‑hour path probabilities

• Base case (60%): Bounce into 96.0–97.5k fails; rollover to 93.0–92.0k in the next 24h.
• Range/mean‑revert (30%): Hold 94–98k range while momentum cools; eventual decision later this weekend.
• Squeeze (10%): News/funding‑driven squeeze above 100.0k; if hourly closes build above 100.8k and aVWAPs flip, path opens to 103–106k. This is our invalidation/stop area if short.

Execution plan

• Strategy: Sell the rip into resistance with a limit entry near hourly resistance cluster and aVWAP band.
• Entry zone: 96.2k–97.2k; optimal single price: 96,600.
• Stop (suggested, not part of order fields): 100,800 (above psychological 100k, hourly swing highs, and a clear invalidation of breakdown). Risk ~4.2k.
• Take profit (24h target): 92,000 (near 2.0 extension and round‑number liquidity). Reward ~4.6k. R:R ≈ 1.1:1 (improves if one scales entries toward 97–98k).
• Trade management: If price fails to bounce to entry and instead breaks 94,000 with momentum, consider a secondary momentum entry on a 15–60m retest of 94.0–94.5k from below, targeting 91.5–92.0k; keep stops tight above the retest high.

Key invalidation

• Sustained reclaim of 100,000–100,800 on hourly closes with rising volume and aVWAP flip to support. In that case, bear thesis is deferred, and a squeeze toward 103–106k becomes probable.

Summary

• The breakdown below 100k with volume, the fully bearish trend stack, and Fibonacci/pivot confluence to 92–93k suggest further downside over the next 24 hours, with rallies likely to be sold. Optimal approach: Sell a bounce into 96.6k, aim to cover at 92.0k, and respect a hard stop above ~100.8k.