BTC at a Polarity-Flip Shelf: Weak Bounce After Breakdown Signals Another Leg Down

Market structure (Daily)

• Primary trend: Strong downtrend since mid‑January.
  • Swing high region: 97.9k (2026‑01‑14).
  • Successive breakdowns: ~95k → ~89k → 78–77k → 62.7k (2026‑02‑05 capitulation).
• Current price: 66,320 (well below prior value area ~68.8–70.5k).
• Recent daily path: Bounce from 62.7k to ~70.3k, then failure and roll-over:
  • 02‑14 close 69,767
  • 02‑17 close 67,494
  • 02‑18 close 66,321 This is a lower-high + lower-close sequence, consistent with a bear-market relief rally fading.

Market structure (Hourly / last ~24h)

• Intraday trend: Down with weak rebounds.
• Key intraday levels from the tape:
  • Local swing high: 68,386 (02‑18 08:00 high)
  • Breakdown/impulse area: 67,300 → 66,700 (multiple hours traded through)
  • Session low: 65,896 (02‑18 19:00 low)
  • Current hovering: 66.3k (below broken supports)
• Price action read: A push to ~68.4k was sold, then a steady series of lower prints culminating in a sharp leg down to ~65.9k, followed by only a modest bounce back to ~66.3k. That’s typical bear flag / descending channel behavior intraday.

Support / Resistance (horizontal + swing points)

Resistance (sell zones)

1. 66,700–67,300: prior intraday support shelf; now likely first resistance (polarity flip).
2. 68,000–68,400: rejection zone and local swing high.
3. 69,700–70,500: daily supply (failed rebound zone).

Support (buy-to-cover zones)

1. 65,900–65,700: today’s low area; first downside magnet.
2. 64,800–64,500: next likely liquidation pocket if 65.9k fails.
3. 63,200–62,700: capitulation base (02‑05 low). Break below increases probability of trend continuation to new lows.

Volatility & range expectations

• Daily candles in February show large ranges (post-crash regime). Intraday ranges of 1.5–3% are common.
• With price sitting under a broken support band (66.7–67.3k) and volatility elevated, the path of least resistance over the next 24h is a retest of lows before any sustainable bounce.

Moving-average / trend proxy (inference from price location)

• Price is far below the January distribution (mid/high 80s–90s), implying:
  • Price below medium-term averages (20D/50D), which tend to act as dynamic resistance.
  • Rally attempts into resistance zones are more likely to be sold until a higher-high structure returns (not present).

Momentum (price-action / structure-based)

• Bearish momentum: consecutive lower closes on daily (02‑14 → 02‑18) and a lower intraday high (68.4k rejection).
• No clear reversal signature (e.g., higher low + reclaim of 67.3k and acceptance above 68k). Current bounce is weak and remains below the breakdown shelf.

Volume read (contextual)

• The major capitulation day 02‑05 volume spike (125B) often marks a temporary bottom, but the subsequent bounce failed to build a new uptrend.
• Latest daily volume (~33B) is not confirming strong accumulation at 66k; rather it looks like post-bounce distribution / drift lower.

Pattern set-ups

• Bear flag / bear pennant (hourly): impulse down from ~68.4k to ~65.9k, then shallow rebound to ~66.3k. If price cannot reclaim 66.7–67.3k, continuation is favored.
• Failed retest concept: 66.7–67.3k is the “decision shelf.” Rejection there implies continuation.

24h outlook (probabilistic)

• Base case (higher probability):
  • Retest 65.9k, possible wick to 65.0–64.5k, then a reflex bounce.
• Alternative (lower probability but possible):
  • Short squeeze reclaiming 67.3k, then test 68.0–68.4k; however structure suggests sellers defend 68k.

Given the downtrend structure and the inability to hold reclaimed levels after the bounce from 62.7k, the next 24 hours bias remains down / mean-reversion to lower supports.

Trade plan logic (why short here)

• Selling aligns with:
  • Dominant daily downtrend (lower highs/lower lows since Jan).
  • Intraday breakdown below prior support (polarity flip).
  • Weak bounce after setting a fresh intraday low.
• Best risk-adjusted short is not at market, but on a pullback into resistance.

---

Key levels summary

• Invalidation area: sustained acceptance above 68,400 (breaks the intraday lower-high structure).
• Nearest downside objective: 65,800–65,900, then 64,500 if momentum persists.