Tradzar
Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
BTC Relief Bounce Stalls Under Supply: High-Probability Retest Lower Within 24 Hours
Market Snapshot (BTC/USD)
- Current price: 69,426
- Data granularity: Daily candles (Nov 10 → Feb 7) + last ~24h hourly tape
- Regime: Strong higher-timeframe downtrend since mid‑Jan, with a violent capitulation Feb 5 and a mean-reversion bounce Feb 6, followed by stalling / distribution into Feb 7.
1) Higher-Timeframe Trend & Structure (Daily)
A. Trend progression
- Peak/Distribution (Jan 13–14): ~95k → ~97.9k highs.
- Breakdown leg (Jan 20 onward): clear sequence of lower highs + lower lows.
- Acceleration (Jan 29–Feb 5): 84.6k → 62.7k close, with the key capitulation day Feb 5.
- Dead‑cat/relief bounce (Feb 6): close 70,555 after printing 60,074 low.
- Feb 7: daily candle so far: O 70,524 / H 71,534 / L 67,591 / C 69,426 → lower close, failing to extend the bounce.
B. Key swing levels (support/resistance map)
- Major support zone: 60,000–62,500 (capitulation low area; psychological 60k)
- Near-term support: 67,500–68,200 (Feb 7 hourly low area + intraday base)
- Pivot resistance: 70,500–71,700 (Feb 6 close area + Feb 7 day high)
- Upper resistance / breakdown shelf: 72,800–76,000 (Feb 3–4 zone; prior support turned resistance)
Implication: Price is below multiple former supports; rallies are likely to be sold until BTC reclaims and holds above ~72–76k.
2) Volatility & Range Expansion (ATR-style reasoning)
- Feb 5 daily range: 73,162 → 62,354 (~10.8k)
- Feb 6 daily range: 71,681 → 60,074 (~11.6k)
- Feb 7 daily range so far: 71,534 → 67,591 (~3.9k)
This is classic: volatility spike (capitulation) → bounce → volatility compression. Compression after a bounce in a downtrend often resolves with continuation lower (not guaranteed, but statistically common).
3) Candle/Price Action Signals
A. Capitulation + rebound dynamics
- Feb 5: huge red candle + extreme volume (125.5B) → forced liquidation signature.
- Feb 6: huge green recovery + extreme volume (114.7B) → short-covering + bargain bids.
- Feb 7: inside-to-lower close vs Feb 6 (failed follow-through) → suggests buyers losing urgency and supply present into 70–71.5k.
B. Rejection zone confirmation
- Feb 7 high 71,534 rejected.
- Multiple hourly attempts into 69.6–70.8k failed to trend.
Implication: The bounce appears corrective; market is struggling to reclaim the breakdown area.
4) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference from structure)
Without computing exact oscillator values, the sequence indicates:
- Daily momentum: strongly bearish since Jan 20 (persistent lower closes).
- Post-capitulation: likely oversold bounce on Feb 6.
- Feb 7: momentum cooling—price unable to make higher highs; suggests bearish momentum reasserting after relief.
A common pattern here is: oversold → bounce to resistance → roll-over.
5) Moving Averages / Dynamic Resistance (qualitative)
Given the drop from ~95k to ~69k in ~3 weeks:
- Short MAs (10/20-day) will be sloping down.
- Price is likely below medium MAs (20/50-day), turning them into dynamic resistance.
Implication: Rallies into 70–76k are likely to encounter systematic selling from trend followers and mean-reversion sellers.
6) Volume & Effort-vs-Result
- Massive volume on Feb 5–6 produced a bounce, but Feb 7 couldn’t extend despite having the opportunity (printed 71.5k then slipped back).
- This “effort then stalling” often precedes a second leg down or at least a retest of the bounce origin.
7) Hourly Microstructure (last ~24h)
A. Intraday path
- Early hours: decline from ~70.9k to 68.1k, then to 67.38k low area.
- Midday: rebound to ~69.7k, but repeated failures around 69.6–70.0k.
- Late session: sideways-to-slightly-down, closing ~69.43k.
B. Market profile / balance read
- The tape shows acceptance (time spent) around 68.8k–69.6k.
- The rejection above ~70.5k implies that upper balance is acting as supply.
Implication for next 24h: higher probability of a range break lower than a clean upside breakout.
8) Pattern/Fractal: Bear Flag / Corrective Channel
From Feb 5 low → Feb 6 bounce → Feb 7 stall, price resembles a bear flag / corrective bounce:
- Impulse down into Feb 5.
- Sharp retracement Feb 6.
- Sideways/soft down Feb 7.
Typical resolution: continuation down toward prior low zones (not necessarily new lows, but a retest is common).
9) 24-Hour Forecast (probabilistic)
Base case (higher probability): Drift / break lower
- Expect tests of 68.2k then 67.5k.
- If 67.5k fails with momentum, next magnet becomes 65.5k–66.2k, then potentially 62–63k (capitulation shelf).
Alternate case: Short squeeze back to resistance
- If BTC reclaims 70.5k and holds, it can push to 71.5k–72.8k.
- However, given trend context, that move is more likely to be sold unless it converts 72.8k into support.
Net: bearish bias for the next 24 hours, favoring sells on resistance / failed rallies.
Trade Plan (Single-direction call)
Why Sell (Short) now
Confluence:
- Primary trend bearish (daily lower highs/lows).
- Relief bounce failed to follow through; Feb 7 closed below key pivot.
- Clear supply zone at 70.5k–71.7k.
- Volatility compression after spike tends to resolve with continuation in the trend direction.
Optimal open (limit entry)
- Prefer to short into resistance rather than at mid-range.
- Open (Sell) zone: 70,450–70,900 (retest of Feb 6 close area / intraday supply)
- If only one number is required: 70,650.
Take-profit / Close
- First meaningful downside target is the intraday support shelf.
- Close (Take profit): 66,200 (captures a likely 24h move to the next demand pocket before the 62–63k major zone)
(Risk note for execution: a practical invalidation would be sustained trade above ~71,700–72,000, but you didn’t request a stop.)