BTC: Sell the Rip Into 89.4k—Fading the Liquidity Sweep Before a Rotation to 87.xk

Summary view

• Instrument/time: BTCUSD, current 88,158.3 (2025-12-30 22:00 UTC). The last 8–10 weeks show a sharp downtrend from 120k+, followed by a broad consolidation between roughly 84.5k and 94.5k through December. Over the last 2 weeks, price compressed into an 86–91k value area. Today printed an inside-to-narrow range relative to 12/29 with a failed push toward 89.3k, fading into the close.
• High-conviction takeaway for next 24h: A sell-the-rip setup remains favored. Expect an early push toward 89.2–89.8k to run resting liquidity above today’s intraday highs, then rotation back into 87.0–87.6k. Risk skew remains to the downside while 90.0–90.6k capps rallies.

Step-by-step analysis (multi-method)

1. Price action and structure (Daily, 4h, 1h)

• Daily: From 10/02 highs >120k we made a persistent series of lower highs/lower lows into the 11/18–11/21 washout (sub-86k), then mean-reverted into a December range. Since 12/09–12/10 local high (94.6k), a sequence of lower swing highs formed around 90.5k (12/22), 90.3k (12/29), reinforcing a descending supply shelf below 91k. Lows: 12/18 low ~84.4k is the major pivot; subsequent lows 12/29 ~86.7k are higher than 12/18, forming a compressing range (descending highs, elevated lows) – classic coil.
• Today’s candle: Inside/narrow relative to 12/29, with intraday high near 89.3k (h data shows 16:00 high ~89,292) and low ~86.7k. The failure above 89k intraday and close back near 88.2k shows supply remains active below 90k.
• 4h: The past 6–8 four-hour bars show a push from 86.7k up to ~89.3k, immediate rejection, and lower highs into the close – a micro-distribution under resistance. That’s a textbook sell-the-bounce context while below 89.8–90.3k.
• 1h: The 14:00–16:00 UTC breakout to ~89.3k on elevated volume failed; subsequent bars posted lower highs (~88.95k → ~88.67k → ~88.24k) and a marginal higher low ~87.8k. Net: intraday trend weakly bearish into the close, with a likely Asia-session liquidity sweep scenario (early grind higher to 89.2–89.6k, then fade).

2. Support/resistance mapping (levels from the data)

• Resistance cluster: 89.2–89.3k (today’s high), 89.9–90.3k (12/22–12/29 swing highs), 90.6k (Fib confluence, see below), 91.5–92k (upper December HVN/BB upper proximity), 94.5–94.6k (12/9–12/10 swing highs).
• Support cluster: 88.0–88.3k (20D mean zone/BB midline vicinity), 87.1–87.4k (12/29 close 87,138 and repeated 1h pivots), 86.7k (today’s low), 85.3–85.5k (mid-December cluster), 84.4k (major swing low on 12/18).

3. Moving averages (directional bias)

• 20-day SMA: roughly in the 88.0–88.5k area; price oscillates around it. That places BTC at its mean → tendency to revert toward extremes (85–90.5k) rather than break in the middle without a catalyst.
• 50-day SMA: downward sloping and well above spot (given October highs still in the window), confirming medium-term downtrend intact.
• 100/200-day: Likely above spot; overall tilt remains bearish to neutral. Until BTC reclaims and holds above the falling 50D, rallies are supply-prone.

4. Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch)

• Daily RSI: Post-washout mean reversion likely keeps RSI in mid-40s to low-50s. That’s a neutral-to-weak regime, consistent with range trading and selling into resistance.
• 4h RSI: After spiking on the 86.7k→89.3k bounce, intraday RSI rolled over with the rejection, indicating waning momentum into the close.
• MACD (daily): Converging lines near/below zero consistent with late-stage consolidation. Lack of clear bullish expansion while below 90–91k keeps momentum headwinds.

5. Volatility/ATR and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR(14) estimated around 1.8–2.4k the past 2 weeks (ranges often 1.5–2.8k). That sets realistic 24h targets and stops. Mean-reversion trades should plan for ~2k swing potential.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline near 88k; lower band likely 85–86k; upper band around 90.5–91.5k. Price near midline suggests higher odds of travel toward a band edge; given overhead supply at 90–91k and recent rejections, the path of least resistance remains a fade from upper midline toward lower midline/support.

6. Fibonacci context (swing 12/10 high to 12/18 low)

• Using swing high ~94,477 (12/10) and swing low ~84,436 (12/18):
  • 38.2% ≈ 88,300 (near current price / 20D SMA)
  • 50% ≈ 89,450 (right inside the 89.2–89.9k sell zone)
  • 61.8% ≈ 90,610 (confluent with the 90.6k ceiling from repeated failures)
• The repeated inability to hold above the 50–61.8% retracement strengthens the case for short setups into 89.4–90.6k.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below the likely daily cloud; Kijun/Tenkan flattening around 88–89k. With a flat Kijun acting as magnet, price tends to mean-revert; clouds ahead likely resistant until 90–91k is sustained.

8. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Intraday volume spikes coincided with the 16:00 UTC probe to ~89.3k, immediately rejected – a negative delta signature (supply absorbing). Subsequent bars had lower highs with healthy volume, favoring sellers into the US close.
• Today’s session VWAP likely clustered just under ~88.9–89.1k given heavy trading near the highs; current price ~88.16k sits below vwap → intraday bearish bias persists unless reclaimed.
• December’s prominent HVN area built 86–91k; within that, 89–90k has acted as a supply node. Expect responsive sellers into that zone.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Broad descending channel since early December with a compressing triangle inside it (lower highs ~90.5k/90.3k and higher lows ~84.4k/86.7k). Breaks from such coils often come after liquidity runs on one side; near term, a small upside liquidity sweep into 89.2–89.8k followed by a push back to 87.xk fits order-flow logic.
• Candles: Multiple upper wicks around 89–90k today and 12/22, 12/29 – consistent with overhead sell pressure.

10. Statistical/mean-reversion lens

• With price near the 20D mean and ATR around 2k, the next 24h distribution skews to a 1–1.5 ATR move away from the mean after a brief excursion. Given resistance is immediately above, the higher-probability path is: short-term uptick (fill resting sell orders), then revert to lower midline/support (87.1–87.6k) within the daily ATR.

11. Scenario tree (next 24h)

• Base case (~55%): Early Asia/EU probe to 89.2–89.6k, rejection, rotate to 87.1–87.6k. Close near 87.5–88.0k.
• Bear extension (~25%): Failure to breach 89.2k; quick roll to test 86.7k and, if momentum builds, wick toward 86.0–86.3k before bouncing.
• Bull surprise (~20%): Clean reclaim above 89.9k and acceptance over 90.3k; squeeze into 90.8–91.6k. Requires strong buy flows and sustained trade above 90k – lower probability unless major catalyst hits.

12. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge concentration: Short the 89.2–89.6k liquidity pocket aligned with the 50% retracement (~89.45k), daily VWAP area, and repeated intraday failures.
• Execution: Use a passive limit sell around 89,250–89,450 to improve entry quality. If filled, target 87,100–87,400 (prior close pivot/1h supports). Keep a protective stop above the 12/29 swing high/61.8% Fib cluster around 90,600–90,800 to avoid getting trapped in a squeeze.
• Risk/reward: Entry 89,250 → TP 87,150 ≈ +2,100; risk if stop ~90,650 ≈ −1,400 → R:R ≈ 1.5:1; add more conservative laddering if desired.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Directional call: Sell the rip remains the higher-probability play while BTC is capped below 90–90.6k and trading under intraday VWAP. Expect a brief upswing to run stops/liquidity above 89.2k, then a rotation down into 87.xk. Only a decisive reclaim and hold above ~90.3–90.6k would negate the short bias and open 91–92k.

Operational notes

• Optional stop (not part of the required output fields): 90,650–90,800. Optional partial profits: 88,200 (vwap/mid), 87,600, then final 87,150. If 89.25k doesn’t fill and price breaks down immediately below 87.8k, consider a lower high retest entry (88.6–88.8k) with the same downside targets.