BTC teeters below 90k: Sell the rip into resistance as 88k buckles

Summary of the tape

• Instrument: BTC/USD
• Timestamp: 2025-12-05 21:57 UTC, last price ≈ 89,235
• Context: After a powerful Q3–early Q4 advance to ~126k in early October, BTC rolled over hard through November, printed a capitulation window into 80–86k, then staged a reflex rally to ~94k (Dec 3) and is now fading again. Today produced a decisive intraday breakdown to ~88.2k with weak bounces into the close.

Step-by-step, multi-timeframe technical read

1. Market structure (trend and price action)

• Daily (primary): Lower highs and lower lows since the Oct peak. The rebound to ~94k (Dec 3) failed below the October–November supply zone and below key longer MAs (bearish structure). Today’s daily candle is on track to close red below yesterday’s close, confirming failure to hold ~92k–93k supply rejection. Structure: bearish until BTC can reclaim and hold >92.5–93.5k.
• 4H/1H (tactical): Intraday trend rolled over. Sequence today: repeated failures near 92.5–92.8k during Asia/Europe; U.S. session accelerated down to 88.2k on high volume at 16:00 UTC; subsequent bounces capped below ~90.0–90.5k and then drifted lower into the close with seller control. Structure: bearish with rallies being sold.

2. Key levels (S/R map)

• Resistance overhead: 90.0k (round), 90.6k–91.3k (intraday pivot cluster), 92.0k–92.8k (hourly supply and prior breakdown area), 93.5–94.1k (Dec 3 high / fresh supply).
• Support below: 88.6–88.2k (today’s low zone and fib confluence), 87.7–87.8k (61.8% retrace of Dec 1→Dec 3 rally), 86.3k (Dec 1 close area), 85.1k (late-Nov key pivot), 83.9k (Dec 1 low).
• Read: First support band already probed; repeated tests tend to weaken. Failure to reclaim 90.6–91.3k keeps the path of least resistance down into 87s and potentially 86s within 24h.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (inference): Daily momentum rolled over from mid-line; not deeply oversold—room to press lower before a high-probability mean-reversion. Hourly RSI likely moved oversold on the 16:00 dump and partially reset on the bounce, which often sets up a “bearish RSI swing failure” for another leg down if price can’t reclaim 90.6–91.3k.
• MACD (inference): Daily histogram negative and lines crossed down since late-Nov; hourly MACD attempted to curl but remains below zero—typical of a weak bounce within a down swing.
• Read: Momentum backdrop supports sell-the-rip rather than knife-catching.

4. Moving averages (framework, directional only)

• Daily: Price below short-/medium-term trend MAs and likely below the longer baseline; slope negative—bearish regime.
• Intraday: Hourly price below declining short MAs; rallies fail near these dynamic resistances—a classic downtrend signature.

5. Volatility and ATR context

• Recent daily ranges are wide (multi-thousand dollar swings). Today’s intraday low at ~88.2k vs early-session highs near 92.7k implies a ~4.5% swing. Next 24h likely to feature 3–5% realized range. This supports a plan that sells bounces into resistance with 2–3% air to initial supports.

6. Volume/flow read

• The heaviest 1H volume printed on the breakdown candle (~16:00 UTC), typical of trend continuation more than a final flush (no dramatic V-bottom). Subsequent bounce volumes smaller and fading—distribution rather than accumulation. Daily volumes on down days have been larger than on up days since mid-November—bearish.

7. Bollinger Bands (inference)

• Daily: Price operating near/under the mid-band after failing to expand upward; bands widening during selloffs—indicates trending downside with intermittent mean-reversions.
• Hourly: Price rode the lower band on the dump, bounced to mid-band, rejected—setup favors another lower-band tag.

8. Ichimoku (inference)

• Daily: Price below cloud with bearish TK/KS alignment. Lagging span beneath price/action—bearish regime.
• Intraday: Below cloud; rallies into cloud top are supply. No bullish edge until a clean recapture above ~92k.

9. Fibonacci confluences (objective anchors)

• Dec 1 low (≈83,862) to Dec 3 high (≈94,061):
  • 38.2% ≈ 90,160; 50% ≈ 89,960; 61.8% ≈ 87,750.
  • Current ≈ 89,235 sits below 38.2%/50% and above 61.8%. The 16:00 UTC low ~88,232 tested between 50% and 61.8% and bounced weakly. A decisive hourly close below ~88.6–88.2k opens the 61.8% retrace (~87.8k) and then 86.3k.
• Read: Failed hold of the 50% retrace coupled with weak bounce tilts the odds to a 61.8% tag within 24h.

10. Pattern analysis

• Candlesticks: Daily shaping a bearish continuation candle after a 2-day stall; intraday shows long-bodied red candle (trend expansion) followed by small-bodied consolidation candles—typical bear flag/continuation behavior.
• Channels: Local descending channel on 1H from ~92.8k lower highs; price currently mid-to-lower channel—risk of one more push down before any durable bounce.

11. Wyckoff/Market profile lens

• Late-Nov to early-Dec area looks like a distribution to markdown transition. Today’s action shows supply swamping demand near prior value (92k), with acceptance forming lower (89–90k). If acceptance (time + volume) builds sub-89.5k, value migrates lower toward 87–86k.

12. Elliott wave (tactical hypothesis)

• The Dec 1→Dec 3 upswing fits an A-B-C corrective pop within a larger downtrend. Today likely marks the start/continuation of a smaller-degree impulsive down leg targeting 87–86k before any larger counter-trend rally attempt.

13. Seasonality/time-of-week micro

• Weekends often feature thinner liquidity and higher slippage; breakdowns can extend easier. This favors continuation lower unless reclaimed levels flip the bias.

14. Scenario tree (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Weak bounces stall below 90.6–91.3k, then rotate down through 88.6–88.2k toward 87.7k; extension risk to 86.3k. Close in the 87.0–88.5k band.
• Bullish squeeze (25%): Reclaim 90.6k, impulsive run to 91.3–92.0k; larger squeeze to 92.8k possible, but sellers likely defend that zone unless daily closes above ~93.5–94.1k.
• Capitulation/flush (20%): Fast loss of 88.2k triggers stops into 86.3k/85.1k; then reflex bounce late in the session.

15. Trade location and risk framing

• Edge: With structure bearish and first bounce weak, the higher-odds play is to sell strength into defined resistance. Best asymmetric location: 90.0–90.6k (prior intraday pivots/Fibo 38.2–50%).
• Invalidation for a tactical short: Strong hour close above ~91.3k (broken support reclaimed), and especially >92.0k (squeeze potential). A disciplined stop would sit in the 91.4–92.0k zone.
• Reward: First target 87.7k (61.8%), stretch 86.3k. From a 90.2k entry to 87.0k take-profit is ~3.5%—reasonable for a 24h horizon given current ATR.

Bottom line

• The confluence of bearish market structure, momentum, volume, failed holds of key retracement levels, and repeated intraday rejections favors continuation lower. The optimal tactical plan is Sell the rip into 90.0–90.6k with targets in the high-87s to ~87.0k (and potential extension to ~86.3k if momentum accelerates). Only a firm reclaim and hold >91.3–92.0k would neutralize this setup in the next 24 hours.

Risk management notes (important)

• Suggested stop for the plan (not part of the schema): 91,500–91,800 to avoid random wicks, adjust for your execution venue and slippage. If an aggressive squeeze pushes >92.0k, step aside—trend could transition to a squeeze day.
• If entry doesn’t fill (no bounce), avoid chasing deep into support; either reduce size on market entry with a tighter stop, or wait for a break-and-retest of 88.2k from below.