Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI

BTC Breakdown Continuation: Sellers in Control Below 74k—Next Stop 70k?

24H BTC Technical Outlook (based on provided daily + hourly OHLCV)

1) Market structure & trend (multi-timeframe)

Daily timeframe (dominant trend):

From mid-Jan highs (~97–98k) BTC has produced a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, culminating in a sharp selloff into Feb.
Key leg down: 2026-01-29 close ~84.6k → 2026-02-04 close ~72.3k, confirming an impulsive bearish swing.
The last several daily candles show expanding downside range and heavy volume during the breakdown (notably 1/29–2/4), consistent with distribution → breakdown → continuation.

Hourly timeframe (execution trend):

2/4 early hours attempted a bounce toward ~76.8k, then rolled over and sold off persistently into ~72.1–72.3k.
The intraday structure shows bearish continuation: rebounds are being sold at progressively lower levels (failed recoveries around ~76k then ~74k).

Conclusion (structure): Trend is bearish on both daily and hourly. Any long is counter-trend unless strong reversal signals appear (not present in this dataset).

2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action + horizontals)

Immediate supports (closest first):

72,100–72,400: Current consolidation area; also near today’s intraday low ~72,076.
~70,000 (psychological): Next magnet if 72k breaks decisively.

Immediate resistances:

73,800–74,200: Former intraday support turned resistance (multiple hourly opens/closes around mid-73k–74k before the breakdown).
75,500–76,200: Prior congestion + breakdown shelf; also aligns with multiple hourly pivots early 2/4.
~78,700–79,300: Area of the 2/2 close (~78.7k) and prior swing level before the final flush.

Implication: With price under former shelves, rallies into 74k–76k are statistically more likely to be sold than to convert into a trend reversal.

3) Momentum & rate-of-change (qualitative RSI/MACD read from swing behavior)

Even without explicitly computing RSI/MACD values, the shape of the move provides strong momentum information:

The daily sequence from 1/29 onward shows persistent negative closes with weak rebound follow-through (dead-cat bounces).
Hourly: after failing near ~76.8k, the market prints a cascade down to ~72k with only brief, shallow retracements.

Interpretation: Momentum remains bearish. Oversold conditions can produce sharp bounces, but in a strong downtrend those bounces often revert unless they reclaim broken structure (at least ~76k).

4) Volatility regime (range expansion + “panic bar” behavior)

Daily ranges expanded notably into 1/31–2/04 (e.g., 1/31 low ~75.8k; 2/03 low ~72.9k; 2/04 low ~72.1k), typical of a capitulation/forced-selling volatility regime.
In such regimes, the next 24h often features either:
1. continuation lower (trend-following), or
2. a sharp mean-reversion bounce that stalls at first resistance.

Given the absence of a confirmed reversal base and the repeated failure to sustain rebounds, odds favor continuation/downside retest first.

5) Candlestick / pattern read

Daily:

1/31: large bearish day (breakdown acceleration).
2/01–2/04: attempts to stabilize are overwhelmed; 2/04 closes near lows (~72.3k) after trading up to ~76.7k earlier → strong seller control.

Hourly:

Clear breakdown from ~76k area, then acceptance below ~74k, then final leg into ~72k.

Pattern implication: This resembles a bear flag / breakdown continuation setup: sharp drop → weak sideways-to-up retrace → renewed breakdown.

6) Volume notes (from provided series)

Daily volume remains elevated through the selloff (2/02–2/04 especially). High volume on down days tends to confirm distribution/conviction selling.
Hourly volume is partially zero in the dataset (likely data limitations), but the key is daily confirmation: selling pressure is real.

7) Next 24 hours: probabilistic path

Base case (higher probability):

Retest/break of 72,076 → drift toward 71,000–70,000 zone as stops trigger beneath the local low.
Any rebound is likely capped at 73.8k–74.2k, and more meaningfully at 75.5k–76.2k (sell zones).

Alternative case (lower probability):

Short squeeze/mean reversion pushes back above 74.2k, then tests ~75.8k–76.2k. Unless price reclaims and holds above ~76.2k, this remains a bounce-in-downtrend.

Net expectation: down or sideways-to-down over the next 24h, with volatility remaining elevated.

Trade plan (direction + execution)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: aligned with dominant trend, breakdown structure, and resistance overhead.

Optimal open (entry)

Prefer to sell a pullback into resistance rather than chase the lows.
Open Price (short): 74,150
- This targets the first meaningful resistance band 73.8k–74.2k (prior breakdown shelf). If price retests it and stalls, it’s an efficient entry with better risk/reward.

Take-profit / close

Close Price (take profit): 70,200
- Just above the major psychological 70k area (often front-run by bids). This matches the expectation of a 72k breakdown leading to a deeper flush.

(Risk note for real trading: a logical invalidation zone would be acceptance back above ~76.2k, but you did not request a stop.)