BTC: Sell the Pop into 90–91.5k – Bear-Flag Exhaustion and Fib Wall Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) Multi‑Timeframe Technical Playbook and 24h Path Projection

Current price: $88,769.73 (as of 2025‑11‑24 21:57 UTC)

Executive view

• Context: Violent mid‑November drawdown to an 80.7k low, now staging a two‑day relief bounce into the first significant overhead supply. The dominant daily trend remains bearish; intraday momentum is constructive but showing early signs of fatigue near 89–90k.
• Bias next 24h: Sell strength into 89.8–91.5k resistance; base‑case pullback toward 86–87k.
• Trade idea: Short on a pop; risk tightly above invalidation.

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher‑timeframe (1D): Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since early October. Large distribution and capitulation days (10/10, 11/04, 11/14, 11/21) printed with outsized volume, confirming trend control by sellers. The current bounce is corrective within a broader downtrend.
• Intermediate (4H est., inferred from hourly): Two‑day rising channel from ~85.3k to 89.2k with progressively smaller candles into resistance – classic bear‑flag tempo.
• Intraday (1H): Series of higher lows today (86.1k → 86.9k → 87.2k → 88.2k) culminating in a failed expansion bar at 20:00 UTC (high 89.20k) followed by stalling/doge‑like closes. This forms a potential intraday “evening star” cluster below 90k.

2. Support, resistance, and liquidity

• Immediate resistance: 89.8–90.7k (round‑number magnet, prior 1H supply, psychological barrier). Above that, 91.2–91.5k (23.6% Fib of the Oct high → Nov low), then 93.8–95.5k (dense daily supply from 11/14–11/16; likely heavy offers).
• Immediate supports: 88.1–88.3k (micro shelf), 87.1–87.3k (hourly pivot), 86.1–86.6k (multi‑hour demand cluster), then 85.2–85.6k (today’s lower bound).
• Liquidity map: Resting stops likely above 89.2k and 90.0k (ripe for a sweep), with downside liquidity around 87.0k and 86.0k. Expect a stop‑run into 90–91k before a fade, barring a strong breakout impulse.

3. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 95.9k (price well below; slope down). This keeps the mean‑reversion target above, but the distance + down‑slope suggests sellers have room to fade bounces.
• Longer MAs (50/200D): Not explicitly calculable from the provided window, but price is clearly below the cluster of longer MAs given prior month’s prices. This confirms higher‑timeframe bearish bias.
• Intraday EMAs (1H 8/21 est.): Bullish alignment today but with flattening slope as price stalls under 90k – early sign of momentum exhaustion.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (inferred): Climbed from oversold low 30s to mid‑40s on the bounce – room to go either way, but not yet a bullish regime shift.
• 1H RSI (inferred from price behavior): Reached high‑60s on the 20:00 UTC push, then rolled over – a mild bearish divergence vs. price making a marginal new high. This typically precedes a pullback to the 50 band or lower.
• MACD: Daily still negative though histogram is contracting (bounce). 1H MACD positive but flattening, signaling waning upside impulse.

5. Volatility and ranges

• 14D ATR (approx): Elevated (4–6k). Today’s intraday range ~3.9k, leaving enough room for a 3–5k mean reversion swing within 24h. A move from 90.0–90.5k to 86.0–86.5k sits well within expected range.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price rebounded off/near the lower band and is below the midline (20SMA ~95.9k). In a downtrend, the midline acts as dynamic resistance; rallies often fail before touching it when momentum is weak.

6. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing high → low: 126.2k (Oct 6) to 80.66k (Nov 21).
  • 23.6% retrace ≈ 91.4k (first major fib sell zone; aligns with overhead supply).
  • 38.2% ≈ 98.1k; 50% ≈ 103.4k (unlikely in 24h without extraordinary catalyst).
• Measured bear‑flag risk: Two‑day rising channel breadth ~3.5–4.0k. A breakdown often projects an equivalent move; a failure near 90–91k could target 86k quickly.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun, bearish stack. Cloud ahead likely thick after the rout, impeding trend reversals. Any approach toward 96–100k would meet cloud resistance.
• 1H: Price above Tenkan/Kijun but cloud thinning and potential flat‑top Kumo near 90k – common failure zone in counter‑trend rallies.

8. Volume and order‑flow read

• Down days carry larger volume than up days since mid‑October – distribution signature. Today’s late‑session pop into 89–89.2k saw rising volume but poor follow‑through – suggests supply replenished overhead.
• Expect sellers to defend 90–91.5k aggressively; a swift wick into this area would be ideal for fade entries.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag/rising wedge on intraday frames: Higher lows, diminishing upside extension, and stalling near a round‑number lid – typical exhaustion pattern.
• No confirmed double bottom: 80.7k stands alone; subsequent lows are higher but untested. Bounces are corrective until 94–96k is reclaimed and held.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Potential ABC corrective: A: 80.7k → 86.8k, B: 86.8k → 85.3k, C: 85.3k → 89–91k. If C terminates around 90–91.5k (Fib confluence), next impulse likely resumes downtrend toward 86k, then potentially 84–85k if momentum accelerates.

11. VWAP and session behavior (tactical)

• Today’s action rotated above intraday VWAP post‑EU session, but late‑US stalling near highs indicates mean reversion risk in Asia/early EU. A VWAP reversion to mid‑88s then extension into 87s fits current microstructure.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case – Fade the pop (60%): Sweep 89.8–90.7k (optionally wick to 91.2–91.5k), then roll over toward 86.2–86.8k. Rationale: confluence of round‑number, Fib 23.6%, intraday momentum exhaustion, and daily downtrend.
• Bullish extension – Squeeze zone (25%): Clean break and hold above 91.5k triggers stops toward 92.8–93.5k; extreme case taps 94–95k supply. Would require strong continuation breadth and rising volume.
• Bearish acceleration – Early fail (15%): No sweep; immediate rejection from 89.0k area and fast drop to 85.5–86.0k before a reactive bounce.

13. Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for short thesis: Sustained acceptance above 91.5k (Fib 23.6 + local structure). Tight tactical stop near 92.2k offers good R/R if entering 89.8–90.9k.
• Profit taking: First cover near 87.3k; main TP 86.4k; runner optional toward 85.6k if momentum accelerates.
• Position sizing: Scale in 25/50/25 at 89.6 / 90.2 / 90.9 to improve average; respect hard stop.

14. Synthesis and decision

• Multiple tools converge on selling strength: daily downtrend, overhead Fib and supply, intraday momentum fatigue, bear‑flag structure, and distributional volume profile. The bounce is corrective; probability favors a retest of 86–87k within 24 hours unless 91.5k is reclaimed.

Trade plan summary

• Direction: Sell on strength (Short).
• Entry: Limit around 89.9k (scale up to 90.9k if allowed).
• Take profit: 86.4k (core), with optional partials at 87.3k.
• Invalidation/stop (not requested but recommended): 92.2k.

24h price path projection

• Likely path: Early Asia probe into 89.8–90.7k → rejection → EU session continuation lower toward 87.x → late US test of 86.4k.
• Risk to view: Break and hold >91.5k flips short‑term momentum bullish toward 92.8–93.5k.

Note: No exogenous catalyst considered; significant macro/ETF headlines could alter path abruptly. Treat levels dynamically and follow price/volume confirmation.