Tradzar
Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
BTC Breakdown Retest: Bear-Flag Pressure Points Toward an 84K Liquidity Sweep
Market snapshot (BTC/USD)
- Current price: 86,511.5
- Context: Price has fallen from the early-Jan swing high (~97,860 on 2026-01-14) and is now trading below the late-Dec/early-Jan congestion (~87k–90k), indicating a bearish regime / distribution-to-markdown transition.
1) Multi-timeframe structure (Daily)
A. Trend & swing analysis
- From 2025-10-28 close ~112,956 to 2025-11-21 close ~85,091, BTC completed a large impulse down.
- After that, BTC spent much of Dec/early Jan in a range-to-rebound phase (roughly ~86k–94k), then broke higher briefly into mid-Jan (~97k–98k) before failing.
- The last ~10 daily candles show:
- Lower highs: 97.9k → 95.6k → 93.6k/92.6k → ~89k
- A renewed push down into the mid-86k area.
Implication: Daily structure is downtrend (lower highs) and price is now retesting prior breakdown support.
B. Key daily levels (support/resistance)
- Resistance zones:
- 88,900–90,000: repeated pivots + prior support (now likely resistance).
- 91,100–92,000: prior breakdown area and minor supply.
- Support zones:
- 86,000–85,000: current reaction zone and prior late-Nov/Dec area.
- 83,500–84,000: next logical daily demand pocket (from late Nov / early Dec basing).
- 80,600–81,000: extreme support from the Nov capitulation wick zone.
Implication: Unless BTC reclaims ~89k–90k, rallies are statistically more likely to be sold into.
2) Intraday (Hourly) price action & order-flow clues
A. Intraday trend
Using the provided hourly series (2026-01-24 22:00 → 2026-01-25 21:58):
- Clear intraday sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
- A notable impulsive selloff around 16:00–20:00 with very large volume spikes (billions in the feed), followed by a weak bounce.
B. Volume spread analysis (VSA-lite)
- The heavy-volume down-leg (16:00–20:00) suggests aggressive supply / liquidation rather than quiet drift.
- The subsequent bounce into ~86.8k is comparatively weak and fails to retake key broken intraday levels.
Implication: The market likely experienced a distribution/stop-run down and is now in a bear flag / weak retracement rather than a strong reversal.
3) Momentum indicators (derived from closes)
(Approximations based on the last daily closes provided.)
A. RSI (14)
- Recent daily closes: 95k area → 93.6k → 92.6k → 88.3k → 89.4k → 89.5k → 89.1k → 86.5k.
- The magnitude and persistence of declines suggest RSI is likely below 50 and trending down, potentially approaching 30–40 (bearish momentum; not yet a confirmed long signal without bullish divergence).
B. MACD (trend/momentum)
- Given the rollover from the mid-Jan high and subsequent lower lows, MACD is likely below signal and drifting further negative.
Implication: Momentum favors continuation down, unless a sharp reclaim above resistance triggers a momentum flip.
4) Volatility & range analysis (ATR / true range behavior)
- The daily candle on 2026-01-25 shows a large range (high ~89,171 / low ~86,166) and a close near the lows (86,511).
- That is consistent with expanding volatility during a bearish leg.
Implication: After expansion days that close weak, the next 24h often sees either:
- Continuation to the next support, or
- A dead-cat bounce that retests breakdown resistance (often 88.5k–89.5k) before resuming down.
5) Pattern recognition
A. Bear flag / descending channel
- Intraday: sharp drop → sideways/up drift → failure to reclaim prior support.
- Daily: lower highs + breakdown from 89k–90k shelf.
B. Failed breakout / bull trap
- Mid-Jan breakout to ~97–98k failed and price slid back into the prior range, a classic failed breakout that often resolves with measured move downward.
Implication: Bias remains short while below ~89k–90k.
6) Scenario & 24-hour outlook (probabilistic)
Base case (higher probability): further downside / support test
- Expectation: price either chops briefly and then retests 86,000, with risk of a sweep into 85,000–84,000.
- Reason: bearish structure, heavy sell volume, close near lows, resistance overhead.
Alternative case (lower probability): bounce then fade
- A relief bounce toward 88,300–89,200 (retest zone), then sellers re-engage.
Invalidation (bullish reversal conditions)
- A sustained reclaim and acceptance above ~90,000 (not just a wick) would weaken the short thesis and raise odds of revisiting 91.5k–92k.
Trade plan (24h)
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
Rationale: Trend + momentum + failed breakout + breakdown retest dynamics favor downside continuation.
Optimal open (entry)
- Prefer selling into a retracement (better R:R) rather than market-selling the low.
- Ideal short entry: 88,900 (inside the 88.9k–90k resistance band; aligns with prior support turned resistance).
Target (take profit)
- First meaningful demand sits around 84k.
- Take-profit / close price: 84,200 (front-run the deeper demand zone and likely liquidity).
(If price does not retrace to entry and instead breaks 86,000 decisively, the short is still directionally correct—but the requested “optimal open price” from this data is the 88.9k retest.)
24h directional call: Bearish-to-neutral with a downside skew; expectation is lower lows or a weak retest bounce followed by selling.