BTC stalls at 90k pivot: set up to fade the bounce toward 88.6k

Timeframes used: Daily, 4H, 1H, intraday session structure (today) Instrument: BTCUSD Current price: 89,475.66

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (Daily) structure: After an extended distribution from mid-September highs (~116–126k), BTC shifted into a decisive downtrend beginning Oct 10 and accelerating into mid/late November, printing a capitulation low near 80,660 (Nov 21). The subsequent rebound topped at 93,528 (Dec 3) and has since been consolidating below that lower-high, with a series of lower highs and mixed lows — typical of a bear rally transitioning into a range.
• Week-over-week: Last two weeks carved a base between ~85,000 and ~93,500. The dominant weekly trend remains down, but the last 10–12 sessions show balance forming, suggesting mean reversion dominates until a new impulse breaks the range.
• Short-term (1H) structure: Today was a narrow, two-sided auction with a failed push to 90,174 at 14:00 UTC, then fade. Intraday lower highs into the NY close, holding bids in the 89.1–89.3k area. That’s a micro bear bias within a broader range.

2. Key levels (derived from provided data)

• Range high resistance: 93,528 (Dec 3 high)
• Intermediate resistances: 92,140 (Dec 4 close zone), 91,350 (Dec 2 close), 90,500/90,200 (today’s rejection band and pivot proximity)
• Pivot cluster: 89,600 (23.6% retrace of Oct high → Nov low), 89,575 (approx 20D SMA), ~90,081 (classic daily pivot from Dec 5 OHLC)
• Supports: 88,610 (38.2% retrace of 80,660 → 93,528 leg), 88,150 (Dec 5 low area), 87,459 (S1 from pivot math), 86,322 (Dec 1 low), 85,090 (Nov 21 close region), 80,660 (swing low)

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 89,574 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is fractionally below, signaling neutral/very slight bearish tilt.
• 50-day SMA (implied): Well above spot given the Oct/early Nov prints near 110–120k. This places BTC below the 50D, meaning the intermediate trend remains down.
• 10-day EMA (qualitative): Flat-to-slightly up after the early-December bounce, but curling. Net: daily MA stack is mixed-to-bearish (20D ~ flat, 50D > price).

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily (qualitative): Neutral zone (approx mid-40s to low-50s). No strong momentum edge; supports range trading over trend following.
• MACD Daily (qualitative): Turned up on the rebound into Dec 3, now flattening with diminishing histogram — a loss of upside momentum and risk of a roll-over if price stays below the daily pivot.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Rotating in mid-range, consistent with choppy mean reversion. Conclusion: Momentum is neutralizing, slightly favoring sellers below resistance.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) Daily (approx): 3.0–3.8k given recent ranges. Expect a 24h envelope of roughly ±1.5–2.0k around the mid.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily (approx): Midline ≈ 89.6k; upper ≈ 93.1–93.5k; lower ≈ 86.0k. Price is hugging the mid-band, reinforcing the idea of a balanced market; rallies toward the upper band likely meet supply for now.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative snapshot)

• Daily: Price likely below or near a thin/declining cloud with conversion/base lines near current price. Lagging span under prior price suggests the cloud’s bias remains cautious. On lower timeframes, price oscillates around the cloud, indicating indecision.

7. ADX/Trend intensity

• ADX (qual): Low-to-moderate; trend strength has faded. This elevates the probability that fades near resistance/support work better than momentum breakouts, unless accompanied by volume.

8. Volume, profile, and VWAP

• Daily volume: Post-Dec 2–3 bounce, volumes have been decaying into the weekend. That usually supports false breakouts and range-bound action.
• Volume concentration over the last 2–3 weeks tracks around 89.5–90.5k (value area), with heavy transaction zones also near 88.5–88.8k. Expect mean reversion between these nodes until a catalyst.
• Intraday VWAP (qualitative): Price spent most of the session oscillating slightly below/around session VWAP, rejecting the 90.1k test — another sign of overhead supply.

9. Classical pivots (using Dec 5 OHLC: H=92,702.64, L=88,152.14, C=89,387.76)

• Pivot P = 90,080.85
• R1 = 92,009.56; R2 = 94,631.35; R3 = 96,560.06
• S1 = 87,459.06; S2 = 85,530.35; S3 = 82,908.56 Observation: Today’s high (90,174) slightly pierced P then failed and closed back below — a classic intraday sell-the-pivot response. As long as price remains below P, bias favors testing S1/S2 zones over R1.

10. Fibonacci mapping

• Up-leg fibs (Nov 21 low 80,660 → Dec 3 high 93,528):
  • 23.6% = ~90,500 (topped below this)
  • 38.2% = ~88,610 (key support, repeatedly referenced)
  • 50% = ~87,094
  • 61.8% = ~85,583
• Down-leg retrace (Oct 1 high 118,649 → Nov 21 low 80,660):
  • 23.6% = ~89,603 (current pivot zone)
  • 38.2% = ~95,175 (unreached; upper resistance reference) Conclusion: Price is coiling right at the 23.6% down-leg retrace / 20D SMA / daily pivot vicinity (89.6–90.1k). Failure here usually resolves to the next confluence at 88.6k (38.2% of the up-leg) and potentially 87.1k.

11. Pattern recognition

• Rectangle/balance: 88.9–90.2k intraday box with supply at ~90.1–90.2k and demand near 89.1–89.3k. Below that, 88.6k is the next magnet.
• Micro lower-high sequence on the 1H from 90.17 to sub-90k in the US session implies sellers control the top of the range.
• No strong bullish reversal candle on the daily; yesterday was a bearish close near the lows, and today is an indecision/doji-like inside day — often continuation to test supports unless buyers reclaim the pivot decisively.

12. Regression channels and mean reversion

• 20-session linear regression slope: Slightly negative after the post-Dec 3 fade. Price is hovering around the regression mean; edge increases by fading the extremes of 90.2k (sell) and 88.6–88.8k (buy).

13. Elliott wave (lightweight read)

• From 80.7k to 93.5k likely a corrective A-B-C or a 3-wave retrace within a larger downtrend. Current action looks like a b-wave failure and roll into a c-wave targeting 88.6k then 87.1k if momentum expands. Confidence moderate/low but directionally aligned with other tools.

14. Harmonics

• A minor bearish Gartley/AB=CD aligns near 90.0–90.5k in this volatility regime (completion coincident with pivot P and 23.6% retrace). Confluence supports selling near 90k with stops above 91.3–92.0k.

15. Seasonality and session effects

• Weekend liquidity: Lower volume, higher wick risk. Range expansions often fade unless structural flows hit; hence pivots and bands matter more. That favors a sell near resistance, cover near support approach for the next 24 hours.

16. Risk management framing

• Expected 24h range: ~88.2k to ~90.9k (centered on 89.5k). A push into 90.0–90.3k provides asymmetric short entries; downside magnets: 88.9k, 88.6k, then 87.5k.
• Invalidation for short thesis (tactical): Sustained acceptance above 90,400–90,600 (H1 closes) or a daily close above ~91,350 would suggest squeeze potential toward 92,000–92,500.

17. Synthesis and 24h path forecast

• Base case (55%): Early Asia retest/rejection near 90.0–90.2k, then drift lower to 88.6–88.9k. Close the session near 88.8–89.2k.
• Bull case (25%): Reclaim and hold above 90,400; squeeze to 91.3–92.0k, stall below R1 (92,010), then reassess.
• Bear extension (20%): Clean break of 88.6k with momentum; accelerate into 87.5k (S1 proximity 87,459). Less likely into the weekend without catalyst, but on table if liquidity thins.

18. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Sell rallies into the 90k cluster given confluence of daily pivot (90,081), 20D SMA proximity (89.6k), 23.6% retrace (~89.6k) and repeated intraday rejections.
• Entry: 90,050 (limit sell) — just above the daily pivot to improve fill odds during any Asian-session probe.
• Target: 88,650 — the 38.2% retrace support from 80.7k → 93.5k leg and a high-activity node.
• Stop (not placed in the formal field, but recommended): 91,350 (above nearby supply and prior close cluster). Risk ≈ 1.3k vs reward ≈ 1.4k; R≈1.1. Optional extension: trail toward 87,500 if momentum expands.
• Alternative for mean-reversion traders: If price fails to reach 90,050 and instead breaks 89,100, consider passing or waiting for a weak bounce back to 89.7–89.9k to re-load shorts. Avoid chasing breakdowns into 88.6k without confirmation as whipsaws are common on weekends.

Bottom line: The confluence of pivot rejection, mid-band gravitation, neutral-to-fading momentum, and persistent supply near 90k favors a tactical short on a retest of 90,050 with a take-profit around 88,650 over the next 24 hours.