BTC: Fade the 93k Rejection — Short the Pop, Aim for 89.8k in 24 Hours

Summary of the tape (context and bias)

• Regime: Since the early-October peak (~126k) BTC has been in a persistent downtrend with a sharp capitulation leg into Nov 20–21 (low ~80,660). A multi-day rebound carried to an intraday high ~92,913 on Nov 28, then failed. Current spot ~91,024 sits below key medium-term averages, within a 90k–93k intraday range. Near-term structure is a corrective bounce against a dominant higher-timeframe downtrend.
• 24h bias: Slightly bearish to range-bound. Expect failures into 92.0–92.9k to be sold, with pullbacks probing 90.3k/89.3k supports.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (Daily): Lower highs/lower lows from Oct persist. The post-capitulation bounce has not reclaimed the 20D SMA; rallies are corrective so far. The 10-day trend is up (short-term bounce), but the 20–50 day trend remains down.
• Intermediate (Last 10–20 sessions): • 10-session closes show a staircase up from the 11/21 low; current close ~91.0k sits above the 5–10 day averages. • 20-session context still bearish: price below the 20D mean (estimate mid-94k). Until price sustains above ~95–97k, the medium-term trend is down.
• Intraday (Hourly, last 24h): Rejection at 92.9k (approx Daily R2) created a series of lower highs after 14:00 UTC, then a drift below the day’s VWAP. Currently chopping 90.8–91.9k with rallies capped at 91.8–92.2k.

2. Key levels (support/resistance/map)

• Resistance: • 92.9–93.0k: Today’s spike high and classic pivot R2 tag; prominent supply pocket and prior rejection zone. • 92.1–92.4k: Hourly supply shelf around R1/failed retests; sellers showed up repeatedly in this band. • 94–96k: Medium-term resistance cluster near the 20D SMA/older breakdowns (not expected in next 24h unless a squeeze).
• Support: • 91.1k (Fibo intraday 61.8% of 90.30→92.91 leg) and 90.8k (76.4%): First intraday supports already tested. • 90.3–90.4k: Yesterday’s S1 vicinity; intraday swing low cluster. • 89.3k: Daily S2 from the 11/27 pivot set; strong demand candidate. • 88.0–88.1k: 38.2% retrace of the full 80.66→92.91 rebound; also near lower Bollinger territory.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (Daily, qualitative): Recovered from oversold (mid-20s) to roughly mid-40s; below 50 implies the bounce is corrective and momentum is not yet dominant bullish.
• RSI (Hourly): Neutral-to-soft; minor bullish divergence earlier into ~90.3k played out with a bounce to ~91.9k, then momentum waned.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram improving from deeply negative but still sub-zero; typical of a fading relief rally before trend resolution.
• MACD (Hourly): Flat to mildly negative after the 92.9k rejection; crossovers lack thrust, consistent with range-to-down drift.

4. Moving averages and bands

• 5D SMA ≈ 89.7k; price above it (short-term constructive).
• 10D SMA ≈ high-88s/low-89s; price above it (bounce still intact in the very short run).
• 20D SMA ≈ mid-94s; price below (medium-term bearish). Expect the 20D to act as attractor/resistance if price squeezes higher.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20D SMA (mid-94s), lower band estimated high-88s/low-89s. Price sits in the lower half; upticks are vulnerable to rejection.

5. Ichimoku (Daily, approximated)

• Price below the Cloud; Cloud future tilted bearish.
• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ (recent 9D high/low mid) ~88.8k. Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ ~98–99k.
• State: Price < Kijun and < Cloud, > Tenkan → corrective bounce with risk of mean-reversion back to Tenkan (~88.8k) if momentum fades.

6. Fibonacci analysis

• Full rebound leg: 80,660 (11/21) → 92,913 (11/28). Key retraces from the high: • 23.6% ≈ 90,024 (first major pullback level) – already within reach. • 38.2% ≈ 88,040 (deeper pullback target aligning with lower BB/Ichimoku Tenkan proximity). • 50% ≈ 86,787; 61.8% ≈ 85,564 (stretch targets if risk-off resumes).
• Intraday leg: 90,304 → 92,913 • 50% ≈ 91,608; 61.8% ≈ 91,168; 76.4% ≈ 90,813. Price is oscillating around 61.8–76.4%, suggesting the 14:00 spike is being retraced.

7. Classical pivots (from 11/27 OHLC)

• P ≈ 91,090.8; R1 ≈ 92,092.1; R2 ≈ 92,898.9; S1 ≈ 90,284.1; S2 ≈ 89,282.8.
• Today’s action validated this map: tag of R2 (~92.9k) → rejection → drift toward P and sub-P. This keeps a tactical short bias while below P and certainly below R1.

8. Volume, VWAP, and flow

• Daily: Post-capitulation upticks on moderate volume; OBV improving only modestly relative to the prior drawdown → bounce lacks broad accumulation.
• Intraday: Notable volume on the 14:00 upthrust into 92.9k followed by failure; subsequent candles traded below session VWAP for most of the late session, signaling distribution above 92k. Volume nodes dense around 90.8–91.5k (value area), with a low-volume pocket near 92.4–92.9k (prone to sharp rejection wicks).

9. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): high 3–4k; room for a 2–3k range in the next 24h without breaking the regime.
• Expected 24h range: 89.3k to 92.5k, skewed to test lower supports if 92.1k–92.4k holds as resistance.

10. Pattern recognition

• Today’s daily candle is setting up as a potential upper-wick/near doji (if it closes around 91k after a run to 92.9k) – a near-term “shooting star” feel within a bounce, often a bearish continuation signal.
• Intraday: Failed breakout pattern above 92.5k, followed by lower highs; a short-term descending micro-channel into the NY close.

11. Quant blend and confluence

• Short bias triggers: • Rejection precisely at R2 (92.9k) and continued trade below R1. • Price below 20D SMA and Kijun; MACD still sub-zero; RSI < 50. • Intraday VWAP overhead with repeated fades from 91.8–92.2k.
• Downside targets cluster: • 90.3–90.4k (S1 zone, intraday low cluster), • 89.3k (S2/daily pivot confluence), • 88.0–88.1k (38.2% of rebound; lower BB vicinity; Ichimoku Tenkan attraction).

12. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Range-to-down. Pop toward 91.8–92.4k fails → slide to 90.3k, with extension into 89.3–89.8k. Close likely 90.0–90.8k.
• Bull case (25–30%): Clean reclaim of R1 (~92.1k) and hold above VWAP → retest 92.9k. Only sustained acceptance >93.1k flips bias to a squeeze into 94–95k (low probability in 24h without catalyst).
• Bear extension (10–15%): Loss of 90.3k early → momentum accelerates to 89.3k; if liquidity thins (weekend), wick toward 88.0–88.5k before mean-reversion back above 89k.

13. Trade plan (tactical)

• Thesis: Fade strength into 92.0–92.4k where multiple resistances align (R1/Supply/VWAP overhang). Use tight invalidation above 93.1k (beyond today’s LVN/stop zone and near the 92.9k spike).
• Entry: Optimal at 92,200 (sell limit into resistance band).
• Take profit (24h): 89,800 (just above S2 89.28k to front-run bids); consider extended runner 88.4–88.0k if momentum accelerates (not part of the single-target output here).
• Invalidation (stop, for risk control; informational): 93,150 close/acceptance, or hard stop 93,300 if using absolute.
• R:R: From 92,200 entry, TP 89,800 yields ~2,400 points; risk to 93,150 ≈ 950 points → ~2.5:1 reward-to-risk.

24-hour price path expectation

• Likely oscillation under 92.1k with a lower-high sequence; probes to 90.3k first, then 89.8k. Any fast squeeze should stall 92.4–92.9k unless strong volume confirms; otherwise, rejection expected.

Bottom line

• The dominant downtrend, rejection at R2, price under 20D/Cloud/Kijun, and intraday VWAP overhead collectively favor selling bounces rather than chasing upside. Target the 89.8k area within 24 hours, with risk tightly controlled above 93.1k.