BTC poised for a downside liquidity sweep: Sell the rip into 87.95k, target 86.45k (24h setup)

Executive summary (24h): BTC is compressing in a tight, descending range just below the 20‑day mean (~88,513). Microstructure shows persistent lower highs and flat-to-weakening support around 87,300–86,600. Odds slightly favor a downside liquidity sweep toward 86,600–86,100 before any meaningful rebound. My plan is to sell a minor pop into 87,950–88,100 resistance and target a move into 86,450 within 24 hours.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Monthly/Weekly context (from provided daily data): After peaking in early October (~126k), BTC sold off sharply into late November (low ~80,660 on Nov 21), then staged a choppy rebound into early December (~94k), followed by a grind-lower consolidation into the high‑80ks. The higher-timeframe trend has shifted from strong up to corrective/down, with the current regime dominated by mean reversion within a broad 85k–93k band.
• Daily market structure: Lower highs since Dec 3–5 (~94k) → Dec 22 (~90.5k) → Dec 26 (~89.5k) → Dec 27 (~87.9k). Lows remain clustered 85.4k–86.6k. This forms a descending triangle/descending channel dynamic with horizontal supports: 86.6k (Nov 20 close), 86.1k (Dec 17 close), 85.46k (Dec 18 close) and 85.09k (Nov 21 close). Resistance stack: 88.5k–89k, then 90.5k, 91.4k–92k, 93.5k–94k.
• Intraday (hourly, Dec 27–28): Price oscillated narrowly between ~87,400 and ~87,950. Repeated failures above ~87,880–87,950, with progressively lower highs and heavier volume on down pushes around 18:00–20:00 UTC. Current print ~87,499 sits mid-lower within the intraday range, beneath an intraday VWAP proxy (~87,650–87,700), indicating sellers are controlling rips.

2. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20‑day SMA (approx): 88,513 based on last 20 closes; price is ~1.15% below → bearish tilt but near mean. Expect mean-reversion magnets around 88.3k–88.7k, but sellers defend first touch.
• 50‑day SMA (approx, trend-influenced by Oct highs): likely >100k; price well below → intermediate trend still bearish.
• 10‑day SMA (qualitative): gliding downward into high‑87ks; price oscillates around/below it → weak momentum.
• Takeaway: With price below declining short/intermediate MAs, rallies into 87,950–88,500 are supply zones.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Mid‑40s region consistent with weak-bearish; no oversold signal. Room remains for a push lower before any momentum-based bounce triggers.
• RSI (hourly, qualitative): Hovering mid‑40s to ~50; repeated failure to sustain above 50–55 aligns with sell-the-rip regime.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Below zero with a flattening histogram → momentum negative but not accelerating; consolidative drift lower.
• Stochastics (intraday, qualitative): Choppy around midline—supports fade setups when price tags resistance.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Historical daily ranges have contracted compared to November; current realized intraday range ~500–700 points, with 24h swings often stretching ~1,000–1,500 when expansions occur. A small Bollinger squeeze (see below) raises odds of a near-term range expansion; prevailing structure suggests a first move lower.
• ATR (intraday proxy): ~350–450 per hour recent; daily ATR(14) proxy ~1,500–2,200. A 24h push to 86,100–86,600 is consistent with typical ATR without regime change.

5. Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2; qualitative)

• Middle band ~88,513; price surfed the lower half of the bands for days. Upper band likely ~91k–91.5k; lower band ~86k. Current price near the lower-middle zone with bands tightening → odds of expansion. Given descending highs, a tag of the lower band (86.0k–86.3k) looks probable before any upper band test.

6. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; cloud tilted bearish. Tenkan (9) likely ~88.2k–88.4k; Kijun (26) likely ~89.3k–89.8k. Chikou would be beneath price. Overall bearish bias; first resistance at Tenkan near 88.3k–88.4k, confluencing with 20‑DMA and intraday supply.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: Oct high (~126.2k) to Nov 21 low (~80.66k). Key retraces from the low: 23.6% ~91.4k (rejected in early Dec cluster), 38.2% ~98.0k, 50% ~103.3k. Current below 23.6% indicates weak retracement quality; overhead fib at ~91.4k remains a strong cap.
• Local swing: Dec 22 high (90.5k) to Dec 18/19 lows (85.46k/88.10k range). The 61.8% pullback sits near ~88.8k; repeated failures beneath 88.8k strengthen that level as local resistance.

8. Market profile / volume nodes (qualitative from closes & activity)

• High‑volume node: 87.5k–88.7k from repeated closes and heavy intraday turnover—this is the value area where price mean‑reverts and supply emerges. Below, a secondary node sits ~86.0k–86.6k. A thin patch likely exists 86.6k→85.6k, implying that once 86.6k gives way, price can slide quickly to ~86.1k/85.5k.

9. Pivot levels (derived from Dec 27 H/L/C: 87,875 / 87,183 / 87,802)

• PP ~87,620; R1 ~88,057; R2 ~88,312; S1 ~87,365; S2 ~86,928. Today respected PP and S1; repeated rejections near R1–R2 zone. Strategy: sell tests into R1/R2 with stops above 88.6k and targets near S2 and the 86.6k shelf.

10. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Daily bars: small bodies, upper wicks on advances, reflecting supply absorption above ~88k.
• Hourly bars: series of lower highs, with heavier sell volume on pushes down around US afternoon/early evening UTC; failed breakouts above ~87,880–87,950. This is prototype distribution at range highs.
• Pattern: Descending triangle against 86.6k–86.1k support. First break probability slightly favors the downside in such patterns when context is bearish.

11. Wyckoff lens

• Phase characterization: After markdown (Oct→Nov), price is likely in an early Accumulation or Redistribution range. Lower highs without proper spring below 85.5k suggest Redistribution risk. A minor liquidity sweep down into 86.1k/85.5k would fit either a markdown continuation or a spring setup; near-term, the path of least resistance is a test lower to probe demand.

12. Elliott wave framing (tentative)

• High to Nov 21 low as (A), bounce into early Dec as (B), then sloping (C) into mid‑Dec lows, followed by a complex sideways (X)/(B) type structure. The current micro leg appears a small-degree downward push that likely completes only after a fresh test of 86.1k–85.5k. Not trading Elliott explicitly, but it aligns with a near-term dip before any broader basing.

13. Confluence map (key levels)

• Resistance: 87,950–88,100 (intraday supply + R1/R2 overlap) → 88,500–88,900 (20‑DMA/Tenkan/61.8% local fib) → 90,500 → 91,400–92,000 (fib 23.6% and prior cap).
• Support: 87,365 (S1 pivot), then 86,928 (S2), 86,600 (shelf), 86,150 (daily shelf), 85,460 (daily close pivot), 85,090 (Nov 21 close). A break of 86,600 often accelerates into 86.1k.

14. Probability-weighted path (24h)

• Bearish drift: 55–60% chance we tag 86,6xx–86,1xx within 24h after a shallow pop toward 87,9xx–88,1xx.
• Range hold and bounce: 30–35% chance we oscillate 87.1k–88.5k without decisive break.
• Upside surprise: 10–15% chance of impulsive squeeze above 88.9k → 89.6k–90.0k; would require sustained acceptance above 88.6k.

15. Trade plan and risk management (for the next 24h)

• Bias: Sell the rip into resistance given descending structure, rejection at VWAP/20‑DMA/Tenkan confluence, and nearby liquidity below.
• Entry: 87,950 (limit/ladder 87,950–88,050).
• Invalidation/stop (not part of output fields but critical): 88,650–88,800 on a 1‑hour close (above R2/20‑DMA/Tenkan confluence), to avoid getting caught in a squeeze toward 89.6k–90k.
• Target: 86,450 (first take-profit at the 86.6k/86.1k confluence zone; conservative cover above the deepest shelf). Optional runner toward 86,150 if momentum accelerates.
• Risk/Reward: From 87,950 short to 86,450 target = ~1,500 points reward; stop ~700–800 points → RR ~1.9–2.1, acceptable in this context.

16. Contingencies and execution

• If price drops immediately from current 87,5xx without tagging 87,95x, consider a secondary entry on a weak bounce into 87,750–87,850 (prior micro swing highs), with tighter stop (above 88,450).
• If price accepts above 88,650 with rising volume, stand down on shorts; shift bias to range extension toward 89,600–90,000 and reassess.

Conclusion: With converging resistances just overhead and a clear shelf below, the tactical edge for the next 24 hours favors a Sell-the-Rip approach into ~87,950 with a target near ~86,450.