BTC stalls at first retracement wall: Fading 91.8–92.0k for a 90k retest

Note: This is a market analysis, not financial advice. Crypto is highly volatile—use position sizing and stops.

Overview and 24h bias

• Price: 91,466.23, up from the Nov 21 capitulation low (80,659 intraday; 85,091 close). The rebound has lifted price above short-term MAs but it remains below the dominant downtrend context and key mean levels.
• Next 24h view: Sideways-to-down within a 90,000–92,200 range, skewed slightly bearish. Failing repeatedly near 91,800–92,000 (hourly supply and classic pivot R1) while daily momentum remains sub-50 RSI suggests selling rallies has edge until 92,000–92,600 is reclaimed on a closing basis.

Trend and moving averages (multi-timeframe)

• Structure: Since early October’s 125,559 high, the market has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows. The mid-November washout (down to 80,659 intraday) established a potential reaction low; however, the bounce so far is corrective, not impulsive.
• Daily SMAs (approximations from provided closes):
  • 5-day SMA ≈ 88.9k (price above) — bullish very short-term.
  • 10-day SMA ≈ 88.5k (price above) — short-term recovery.
  • 20-day SMA ≈ 93.94k (price below) — the rebound remains beneath the intermediate mean; rallies are corrective below this.
  • 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 105–110k (price well below) — dominant trend still down.
• EMAs: The 9/12 EMAs (est. high 88–90k) are below spot; price > short EMAs but < 20SMA. Typical of bear-market rallies: early EMAs turn up first, but price stalls under the 20–50 day cluster.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 43–44 (derived from the last 14 closes). This is a recovery from oversold but still sub-50, i.e., momentum remains bearish-biased on the daily timeframe.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Mid-range (~50–60). No strong signal; room both ways, but not overbought.
• MACD (qualitative): Histogram has been contracting (less negative), consistent with a counter-trend bounce. Signal still below zero on daily, so upside follow-through is suspect unless we reclaim and hold above the 20-day SMA.

Volatility and regime

• ATR(14) daily (est.) ≈ 4.5–5.5k after the Nov volatility spike, now compressing. Post-shock compression often favors mean-reversion trades around clear levels.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ≈ 93.9k; price below mid-band suggests the path of least resistance is sideways/lower unless we clear and hold above ~94k. Bands are still relatively wide from the shock, but are starting to narrow—consistent with a range day ahead.

Market structure: support, resistance, and pivots

• Key daily resistance zones:
  • 91,800–92,000: Repeated intraday rejections; aligns with Classic Pivot R1 from 11/26.
  • 93,400–94,000: Pivot R2/20-day SMA confluence area. A close above 94k would be a regime change for the bounce.
  • 97,800–98,000: 38.2% retrace of the 125,559 → 80,659 swing.
• Key supports:
  • 90,000 round number and intraday demand pocket 90,100–90,400.
  • 88,800–89,000: 61.8% retrace of the 86,317 → 91,885 local upswing; also near the 5–10 day means.
  • 87,700 (Classic Pivot S1 from 11/26); below opens 86k.
• Classic Pivots using 11/26 H/L/C (90,581/86,317/90,518):
  • PP ≈ 89,139; R1 ≈ 91,961; R2 ≈ 93,403; S1 ≈ 87,696; S2 ≈ 84,875. Today’s price action repeatedly failed just under R1, reinforcing 91.9–92.0k as a sell zone.

Fibonacci and retracements

• Major swing: 125,559 (Oct peak) to 80,659 (Nov 21 intraday low).
  • 23.6% = ~91,260 (current area): first resistance normally tested early in a corrective rally. Price is hovering slightly above but not breaking away, indicating supply.
  • 38.2% = ~97,830; 50% = ~103,110; 61.8% = ~108,640. These higher retraces likely require a regime shift (above 94k daily) and improving breadth.
• Local swing (11/26 low 86,317 → 11/27 high 91,885):
  • 38.2% ≈ 89,900; 61.8% ≈ 88,300. A fade from 91.8–92.0k could target 89.9k first.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price remains below the cloud. Tenkan (est.) around high-80s and Kijun (est.) mid- to high-90s; price above Tenkan but below Kijun/Cloud = corrective recovery within a broader downtrend. For a trend reversal, price needs to clear Kijun (~96k) and then the Cloud (~100k+).

Volume and order flow

• The selloff legs (Oct 10, Nov 14–21) printed outsized volume—distribution. The rebound since Nov 23 has risen on comparatively lighter volume (from your dataset), characteristic of short covering rather than aggressive accumulation.
• Today’s 18:00 UTC hour had a large volume spike pushing to 91,792, followed by immediate failure to hold above 91.8k. That looks like supply stepping in near R1, not absorption above.

Hourly/Intraday read (today)

• Range: 90.1k–91.9k. Highs near 91.8–91.9k faded multiple times. Lows have been rising modestly, but momentum waned in the US afternoon.
• 1H RSI mid-range; no overbought read to fuel a breakout squeeze. Price oscillating around session VWAP (~91.4–91.5k), but failing to build value above it after the 18:00 push.
• Intraday bias: Sell 91.7–92.0k into 90.0–90.5k pullback unless we see a decisive reclaim >92.2k with rising volume.

Pattern diagnostics

• Potential bear flag: Since Nov 21, price has stair-stepped higher within a rising channel. Measured move risk on break of 89k points back to 86–87k over a multi-day horizon (beyond 24h), but for the next day the lower channel/90k test is the likely extent.
• Alternative: A rough inverse H&S off the 80.7k spike low, neckline ~88.3k, completed on Nov 24. Textbook target ~96k, but confirmation is absent while price stalls at the 23.6% retrace and below the 20SMA.

Regime blend and confluence

• Mean reversion dominates the intraday tape (post-shock narrowing ATR, mid-range oscillators, VWAP-centric rotations) while the daily remains a bearish primary trend (below 20/50 SMA, sub-50 RSI). In such a mix, fading into nearby resistance with tight risk often outperforms chasing breakouts.

Scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Range to lower. Failures 91.8–92.0k cap; drift toward 90.1–90.5k with spikes below 90k possible but likely bought initially.
• Bull case (30%): Clean break and hold above 92.0–92.2k triggers a push into 93.0–93.5k; daily 20SMA (~93.9k) then likely rejects on first test.
• Bear tail (10%): Loss of 90k with momentum/volume accelerates to 88.8–89.0k; if liquidity is thin, a probe toward 87.7k (S1) can print.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Thesis: Fade into 91.8–92.0k resistance (Classic R1 and repeated intraday supply) with a target near 90.0k where bids cluster and local fib/SMA supports converge.
• Entry (short): 91,800 (sell limit preferred). If already filled near market, consider adding on a push into 91,900–92,000 only with strict risk limits.
• Take profit: 90,050 (front-run 90k round number). Secondary extension if momentum breaks 90k: 89,900–89,300, but this may require more than one session.
• Invalidation/stop (not asked but prudent): 92,650 (above R1 band and intraday failure zone), preserving ~850 risk per BTC vs ~1,750 reward to TP → R:R ≈ 2.1.

What flips the bias

• A strong hourly close above 92,200 with rising volume and follow-through into 92.8–93.2k would negate the fade and pivot bias to buy pullbacks toward 92.0k for a 93.9–94.5k test.

Bottom line

• The bounce is mature into first major resistance (23.6% retrace and Classic R1), daily momentum remains sub-50, and intraday attempts to break higher are being sold. The higher-odds play over the next 24h is to Sell a rally into 91,800–92,000 with a target near 90,000.