BTC Coil Into Year-End: Long the Dip, Sell the Pivot R1

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a tight, mean‑reverting range. Expect chop with an upward skew toward the daily pivot R1 zone (≈88,950–89,000). Risk of downside probe into 86,600–86,200 if liquidity thins.
• Trade idea: Range buy near support; target the upper band/pivot cluster.

Market structure and trend (multi‑timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (daily): From the Oct peak (~123–126k), BTC sold off sharply into Nov 21 (~80,660), then staged a rebound into early Dec (~93.5k) and has since compressed into a horizontal range 85.3k–90.5k. The primary trend since October remains down, but the last 4–5 weeks show basing/sideways behavior (distribution vs accumulation undecided), with tightening daily ranges in the 86–89k band.
• Intermediate structure (late Nov–Dec): Lows at 85.3k (Dec 18) and a series of higher minor lows since: 85.46k (Dec 18) → 86.41k (Dec 24) → 86.63k (Dec 26) → 87.21k (Dec 27 intraday). Highs capped below 89.5–90.5k. This prints a shallow rising micro‑channel inside a broader horizontal range.
• Intraday (hourly, Dec 27): Very tight coil with a gentle drift higher; successive marginal higher highs (to 87,642) and higher lows (to ~87,300). Price reclaimed and sits just above intraday VWAP. Market is coiled, signaling a break attempt in 12–36 hours, but weekend conditions favor continued range behavior first.

Support/resistance map

• Major resistance: 90.5–91.9k (Nov 27–Dec 22 swing highs), 93.5–94.6k (Dec 3/9 highs; also daily BB upper vicinity and Fib 38.2% from the Oct high → Nov low). Overhead supply increases above 90.5k.
• Near resistance: 88.9–89.5k (daily pivot R1 cluster; Dec 26 high 89,459; repeated intraday rejections ~88.6–88.9k). This is the first take‑profit region for range buys.
• Major support: 85.3–85.5k (Dec 15–18 cluster and prior reaction zone), then 80.7–81k (Nov 21 capitulation low).
• Near support: 86.6–86.9k (Dec 24–26 lows/volume node), 87.2k (today’s intraday low).

Trend/Moving averages

• 5–10D SMAs: ~87.4k–87.7k. Price is slightly above/near these, indicating short‑term upward bias.
• 20D SMA: ~89.0–89.5k. Price sits below the 20D, consistent with medium‑term bearish/neutral.
• 50D SMA: likely ~94–97k; 100D/200D even higher. The stack is still bearish top‑down, but the distance has compressed, a precursor to mean‑reversion rallies.
• Read: Short‑term MAs turning/flat up vs higher MAs still above. This fosters a bounce toward the 20D mean if resistance allows.

Oscillators

• RSI (daily): estimated mid‑40s to high‑40s; below 50 but rising—typical of bear‑market rallies within ranges.
• RSI (4h/1h): hovering around 50–55; no bear divergence at current intraday highs. Room for a push to 88.8–89.2k before overbought on intraday frames.
• Stochastics (1h/4h): mid‑range, tilting up. Supports a modest continuation higher before cycling down.
• MFI: ~45–50, neutral. No strong inflow/outflow signal; aligns with range.

Momentum

• MACD (daily): Negative but flattening, histogram near zero with sequential smaller red bars—momentum loss in the down move and potential for a shallow bullish cross if price holds above 87k–87.3k.
• MACD (4h): Slightly positive/flat; supports a grind higher rather than impulsive trend.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D): compressed materially versus Nov (now roughly 2.5–3.5k). Holiday/weekend effect further narrows realized vol.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Pinching; mid‑band near the 20D (~89.2k), lower band ~85.0–85.5k, upper ~93–94k. Price sits between lower band and mid, favoring a push toward the middle band on mean‑reversion.
• Keltner vs Bollinger (daily/4h): Bands overlapping tightly—Squeeze conditions. Usually resolves with expansion; into the weekend this more often manifests as a grind toward a nearby liquidity pocket (here: 88.9–89.5k) rather than a full breakout.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan (~9‑period mid): ≈ 88.5–88.8k. Kijun (~26‑period mid): ≈ 89.5–90.0k.
• Price below Kijun and likely below the cloud; future cloud flattening. Chikou under price/action. Signal: Neutral‑bearish, but a magnet effect toward flat Kijun/Tenkan supports a bounce to ~89k if 86.6–87.0k holds.

Volume, OBV, and profile

• Volume: Holiday compression; no capitulation or breakout volume. The largest recent day was Dec 26 vs neighbors, but still modest vs Nov.
• OBV: Flat since mid‑Dec, confirming balance.
• Volume profile (Dec range): Visible nodes at 86.6–86.9k (support) and 88.7–89.2k (supply). Price tends to shuttle between these nodes in absence of new flows.

Fibonacci confluence

• Oct high (~123.9k) → Nov low (~80.66k):
  • 23.6%: ~90.6k (consistent with major resistance band)
  • 38.2%: ~94.3k (aligns with Dec 3/9 rejection area)
  • Golden pocket (~61.8% near 104k) far overhead
• Within Dec micro swing (Dec 26 high 89,459 → Dec 27 low 87,214): 50–61.8% retrace sits ~88.3–88.8k—right where we expect the next test, reinforcing the 88.9k target zone.

Pivots and intraday levels (using 12/26 data)

• Daily PP ≈ 87,796; S1 ≈ 86,133; R1 ≈ 88,964. Price currently just below PP and likely to gravitate to PP then R1 in a positive drift scenario. R1 ≈ 88,950 aligns with our take‑profit.

ADX/DMI and SAR

• ADX (daily) likely sub‑20: weak trend regime; range tactics favored.
• DMI: Modest bear bias but waning; a small pop can flip short‑term DMI+ > DMI‑ intraday.
• Parabolic SAR (daily) likely still above price; on 4h it’s close to flipping with another +1%.

Wyckoff lens

• Potential accumulation range since late Nov: PS/SC near 80–81k, AR ~90–91k, ST ~85.3–86.6k. No confirmed spring yet. Until a spring/UTAD, expect continued oscillation within 86–90.5k. Current location is lower‑half of range → expression: buy the lower half, sell the upper half.

VWAP

• Intraday anchored VWAP (today) sits ~87.45–87.55k; price slightly above. Staying above VWAP supports a drift to 88.3–88.9k. Losing VWAP and 87.2k likely retests 86.6k node.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Range continuation with upward skew. Hold 87.0–87.2k; push to PP (~87.8k), then test 88.6–89.0k (R1). High prints near 88.9k with fading momentum.
• Bear case (25%): Liquidity air‑pocket; price slips under 87.0k → 86.6k support. Brief extension toward 86.1k (daily S1) possible before responsive buying returns to 87.3–87.6k.
• Bull/breakout case (15%): Clean reclaim of 89.0k with sustained bid; extension to 89.5–90.2k. Low probability over the weekend without new catalysts.

Risk and invalidation

• Invalidation for the long idea: Hourly close below 86.6k (and certainly a daily below 86.1k) shifts bias to a retest of 85.3k.
• Notable risks: Weekend illiquidity, headline risk (macro/crypto‑specific), and stop‑hunts around 87.0k and 86.6k.

Trade plan synthesis

• Strategy: Mean‑reversion long within range, aiming for the pivot R1/upper supply node.
• Entry: Stagger/limit near 87,200–87,450 with best single reference ≈ 87,380 (61.8% pullback of intraday pop and just above volume node). Current price 87,610 is close; waiting for a minor dip increases R:R.
• Target: 88,900 (daily R1/confluence with prior local highs 88.6–89.5k).
• Suggested stop (not part of order spec but critical for risk): 86,120 (below S1 and 12/24–26 shelf). Implies risk ≈ −1,260 to −1,500; reward ≈ +1,300 to +1,700 → R:R ≈ 1.1–1.3x for a short‑dated swing inside a tight holiday range—acceptable given high probability.

Why Buy and not Sell here

• Location: Lower half of the 86–90.5k range; better expectancy for longs.
• Confluence: Pivot math (R1 ≈ 88,964), VWAP support, intraday higher lows, 20D mean above price (pull‑to‑mean), BB pinch encouraging a move toward mid‑band.
• Momentum: Oscillators turning up from neutral; MACD flattening with potential cross on lower timeframes.

24‑hour price path expectation

• Low: 86,600–87,000 (wick risk to ~86,100 in a downside probe)
• High: 88,800–89,200
• Close: Likely around 88,200–88,700 if the base case plays out

Bottom line

• Lean long on small dips; sell into 88.9k. Respect invalidation under 86.6k.