BTC Relief Rally Meets a Supply Wall: Short Bias Into 69.3k Resistance (24h Outlook)

Market Snapshot (BTC/USD)

• Current price: $68,775
• Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-16 → 2026-02-13) + intraday hourly sequence for 2026-02-12/13.
• Regime: Strong downtrend from mid-Jan highs ($97–98k) into a capitulation low on Feb-05 ($62.3k), followed by a volatile rebound.

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1) Multi-timeframe Trend & Structure

Daily structure (swing trend)

• Lower highs / lower lows since the peak zone around $97–98k (Jan-14).
• Major selloff leg:
  • Jan-29 close ~$84.6k → Feb-05 low ~$62.35k (capitulation wick + huge volume).
• Recovery leg:
  • Feb-05 close ~$62.7k → Feb-06 close ~$70.6k (sharp mean reversion).
  • Then consolidation/chop $66k–$72k.
• Key read: Despite the bounce, price is still well below prior breakdown areas (mid/high 70s and 80s), so the dominant daily trend remains bearish; the current move is best classified as a bear-market rally / relief bounce unless it reclaims major resistance zones.

Intraday (hourly) structure (last ~24h)

• Price based from ~$66.0–$66.7k and then pushed to a session high near $69.3k.
• Latest hours show stalling under ~69.1–69.3k and slight pullback to $68.8k.
• Short-term structure: higher lows from early day → bullish intraday impulse, but currently in distribution just below resistance.

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2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Action / Market Profile style)

Major resistances overhead

1. $69,100–$69,350: repeated intraday highs, rejection zone.
2. $70,200–$70,600: recent daily closes and pivot (Feb-06/Feb-08/Feb-09 region). Often acts as a magnet but also a sell zone in a downtrend.
3. $71,600–$72,200: local swing highs after the bounce.
4. $75,500–$78,700: breakdown region (Feb-01–Feb-03). If revisited, likely heavy supply.

Key supports below

1. $68,600–$68,250: near-term intraday shelf (recent hourly closes).
2. $67,000–$66,200: high-traffic zone (multiple daily closes; today’s earlier range).
3. $65,100–$65,800: prior daily low area.
4. $62,300–$63,000: capitulation low + psychological base.

Implication: Risk-reward favors fading into resistance (short) unless price can decisively accept above ~$70.6k.

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3) Momentum & Mean-Reversion Signals

RSI-style (qualitative, from observed sequencing)

• Daily: After a sharp selloff into Feb-05, the bounce likely lifted RSI from deeply oversold toward neutral. That typically reduces immediate upside expectancy (the “easy” rebound already happened).
• Hourly: strong impulse from 66k → 69k suggests hourly momentum peaked; now momentum is cooling near a known supply band.

MACD/Impulse concept (qualitative)

• Daily momentum likely still negative/repairing; rebounds into resistance commonly see bearish continuation if they fail to break prior pivot highs.
• The inability to hold above ~69.1–69.3k suggests bull impulse is weakening.

Implication: Next 24h more likely range-to-down unless $69.35k breaks and holds.

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4) Volatility & Range Expectations (ATR / Bollinger concept)

• Daily candles from Feb-05 onward show very large ranges (capitulation + rebound) → elevated ATR.
• Elevated volatility favors:
  • Stop runs above obvious highs (69.3k / 70.6k)
  • Mean reversion back to mid-range (67–68k)

Base case 24h range: roughly $66.8k–$70.2k with risk of spikes.

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5) Pattern Recognition (Classical)

Bear flag / descending channel (daily)

• Big drop (flagpole) into Feb-05, then choppy upward drift and consolidation: this often forms a bear flag.
• Bear flags statistically resolve lower unless price reclaims key breakdown levels.

Resistance-backed distribution (hourly)

• Multiple touches and failure to clear ~69.3k resembles a short-term distribution top.

Implication: Higher probability of a pullback toward 67–68k than a clean breakout to 72k.

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6) Volume / Participation (read from provided volume)

• Capitulation day (Feb-05) had very high volume.
• Rebound day (Feb-06) also very high volume.
• Recent daily volumes are lower than capitulation, suggesting the rally is corrective rather than a fresh accumulation trend.

Implication: Sellers may defend rallies; upside requires a clear increase in demand to push through 70–72k.

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7) 24-Hour Forecast (Scenario Tree)

Primary scenario (higher probability): Pullback / consolidation lower

• Expect rejection in $69.1–$69.35k to lead to drift back to $68k, possibly probing $67.2–$66.8k.

Alternate scenario (breakout): If acceptance above $69.35k

• Quick extension to $70.2–$70.6k (next supply).
• But given the dominant daily downtrend, that area is still a strong candidate for renewed selling.

Invalidation for short bias

• A clean hourly close and hold above $70,600 increases odds of continuation toward $71.6–$72.2k.

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Trade Plan (Next 24h)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: dominant daily downtrend + bear-flag characteristics + intraday stall at resistance with elevated volatility (good for fades).

Optimal Open (Entry)

• Open Price: $69,250
  • This targets a rebound/retest into the resistance band $69.1–$69.35k.

Target (Take Profit)

• Close Price: $67,200
  • Near a high-probability mean-reversion/support zone and within expected 24h ATR-style movement.

(Risk note for execution: if price breaks and holds above ~$70,600, the short thesis weakens materially.)