BTC: Double‑Top Hangover — Fading the Pivot for a Drive Toward 112k

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis (24h outlook)

1. Market regime and structure

• Trend context (Daily): BTC put in a local peak at ~123,344 (Aug 13), forming a clear double-top versus the earlier July 14 peak (~123,092). Since Aug 14 the sequence is lower highs and lower lows, i.e., short-term downtrend. Today extended the decline, printing an intraday low ~112,783 and finishing near 113,524.
• Structure zones: • Resistance: 114.0–114.5k (intraday pivot/supply), 115.2–115.7k (R1/MA cluster), 116.7k (breakdown level), 118–120k (prior range top/Ichimoku cloud area). • Support: 112.8k (today’s low), 112.5k (Aug 2 swing low), 111.9–112.0k (Aug 3 low), then 110k psychological; deeper supports 108–109k if momentum persists.
• Pattern read: Double-top at ~123k with a broken neckline in the 118–119k region; current move is the follow-through leg. Intraday, a bear-flag style drift under broken supports with failed bounces.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Approx 46.5 (computed from the last 14 closes). Below the midline, not oversold; room for further downside before exhaustion.
• Hourly RSI: Reached oversold during the flush to ~112.8k; subsequent bounce relieved extremes but remains below neutral on most hours, consistent with bearish control and “rallies to sell”.
• MACD (Daily): Post-Aug 13 roll-over; signal crossover to the downside with expanding negative histogram — confirms bears hold near-term momentum.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA: ~116.64k (approx). Price (~113.52k) sits well below and the slope has turned down — bearish.
• 50D SMA (inferred): Likely ~112–114k from June–Aug mix; price is hovering around it. A decisive daily close below the 50D would further open room to 110k.
• 200D SMA (inferred): Much lower and rising; not immediately relevant for 24h, but the space to that longer-term trend remains sizeable, so interim pullbacks can be absorbed without breaking the bigger-cycle bull.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily (approx): 2.5–3.5k. Today’s true range already ~3.9k (116.7k to 112.8k), signaling an expansion day. Expect a 24h realized range in the 2.5–4.0k band — supports the feasibility of a 2k intraday swing plan.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price riding the lower band zone; this supports trend continuation but also permits mean-reversion tests to the midline on short squeezes. Middle band near the 20D SMA (~116.6k) is well above; a near-term reversion that far is unlikely without a catalyst; nearer reversion targets lie around 114.0–115.5k.

5. Price levels via Pivots and Fibonacci

• Daily floor pivots (using today’s H/L/C ~116,709 / 112,803 / 113,524): • Pivot (P) ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 114,012 • R1 ≈ 115,221 • S1 ≈ 111,315 Implications: Price below P favors fades into the 114.0k area; R1 (115.2k) is a logical cap for bear rallies; S1 near 111.3k aligns with next intraday support if the slide resumes.
• Fibonacci (from Aug 2 low 112,527 to Aug 13 high 123,344): • 38.2% ≈ 119,212; 50% ≈ 117,935; 61.8% ≈ 116,659; 78.6% ≈ 114,855; 88.6% ≈ 112,786. Price tagged the 88.6% (~112,786) and bounced — classic deep retrace support. However, failing to sustain above the 78.6% (~114,855) and pivot (~114,012) would keep the path of least resistance down into 112k–111k.

6. Volume/participation

• Distribution prints: Elevated volume on down days (Aug 14 selloff; today’s heavy intraday selling into lows), pointing to supply dominance. OBV-style inference is rolling over since Aug 13.
• Intraday: Highest activity around the selloff windows; low-resistance air pockets show quick drops, and rebounds are labored — a bearish microstructure hallmark.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; lagging span beneath price. The cloud ahead likely in the 118–120k zone; any bounce should meet supply before that. Signals short-term bearish.

8. Regression channels and market profile (qualitative)

• Linear regression (last 20 sessions) slopes down; price below mean — consistent with downside bias.
• Volume/supply nodes concentrated around 117–119k and 115–116k; current trade below these nodes suggests acceptance lower unless 114–115k is reclaimed quickly.

9. Elliott/impulse framing (tactical)

• From the 123k double-top, today’s leg appears like wave 3/5 of a short-term impulse; a weak wave-4 bounce into 114.0–115.2k is probable before a final push lower toward 112–111k to complete the sequence.

10. Synthesis and 24h probabilistic path

• Base case (≈60%): First, a fadeable bounce to the daily pivot/overhead supply (113.9–114.3k, possibly stretching to 115.2k). Then renewed selling drives price to 112.2–111.8k, with spikes toward S1 (111.3k) possible if risk sentiment remains soft.
• Alternative (≈35%): Range consolidation 113.0–115.0k, choppy mean reversion with no decisive break.
• Squeeze tail risk (≈5%): A fast reclaim above 115.6–116.0k flips intraday momentum, forcing shorts to cover toward 116.7k. This would invalidate the immediate short thesis but still leave the daily trend fragile beneath 118–119k.

Trade plan (tactical short)

• Rationale: Short-term trend down; price beneath 20D SMA and daily pivot; MACD negative; deep Fib retrace failed to reclaim 78.6%; repeated supply overhead at 114–115k.
• Optimal entry: Sell a bounce into the daily pivot region around 114,000 (sell-limit). This exploits mean-reversion into resistance while aligning with the prevailing downtrend.
• Target (24h): 111,800 — just above S1/round-number cluster to improve fill probability before potential bounce attempts.
• Invalidation (risk guide, not an order here): Hourly close >115,600 weakens the short thesis; daily close back above 116.7k negates it.
• Expected move and R:R: Entry 114.0k to target 111.8k ≈ 2.2k swing; a prudent protective stop could sit around 115.6k (≈1.6k risk), giving ~1.35:1 R:R on the primary leg with potential extension to 111.3k improving R:R.

Bottom line

• Momentum, structure, and overhead supply favor selling bounces. Probabilistic path leans to a pivot re-test fade toward 112–111k over the next 24 hours.