BTC in Breakdown Mode: Selling Relief Rallies as Bears Defend 79k Supply

Market structure (Daily)

• Primary trend: Bearish. From 2025-11-04 close ~101,590 → 2026-02-01 close 76,376 (large drawdown; sequence of lower highs / lower lows).
• Acceleration leg: 2026-01-29 to 2026-02-01: ~84,562 → 76,376 (capitulation-style extension).
• Key inflection: 2026-01-31 daily low ~75,816 and today’s low ~76,376 (so far) suggests price is hovering just above a fresh demand pocket, but without convincing reversal evidence.

Price action & candlestick read

• Jan 31 (daily): Huge bearish range (84,137 high → 75,816 low, close ~78,621). This is a “breakdown + range expansion” candle: typically signals trend continuation unless quickly reclaimed.
• Feb 1 (intraday so far): Attempts to rebound toward 79.3k failed; subsequent hours printed lower highs and drifted back to 76.3k.
• Conclusion: Sellers are still controlling rallies; bounces look like dead-cat / relief rather than reversal.

Support/Resistance mapping (multi-timeframe)

Major resistance (overhead supply)

• 79,200–79,500: Intraday swing highs and rejection zone (79284 high printed; repeated failure to hold above 79k).
• 81,000–84,000: Breakdown area from Jan 30–31; likely heavy supply where trapped longs may exit.
• 86,500–89,500: Prior consolidation shelf (Jan 21–28 region). Now strong resistance if price ever mean-reverts.

Key support (downside targets)

• 76,300–75,800: Current area + Jan 31 low region (immediate demand).
• 74,000–72,500: Next psychological/round-number magnet and typical post-breakdown continuation target.
• 70,000: Larger psychological level if liquidation continues.

Trend & moving averages (conceptual from data)

• Given the persistent decline from mid-Jan (~97k) to now (~76k), price is almost certainly below 20D/50D/200D.
• A common bear-market condition is: 20D < 50D < 200D and price below all → rallies tend to be sold.

Momentum (RSI / rate-of-change style inference)

• The last ~3 days show strong negative returns with only shallow bounces. That typically puts RSI(14) in oversold (≤30) territory.
• Oversold does not mean “buy”; in breakdowns, oversold can persist and price can “walk down” supports.
• Practical implication for next 24h: elevated chance of short-covering spikes into resistance (79k-ish), but baseline bias remains down.

Volatility & range expectations (ATR-style reasoning)

• Daily ranges recently:
  • Jan 31 range ≈ 8.3k (84.1k–75.8k)
  • Feb 1 so far range ≈ 2.9k (79.3k–76.4k)
• This indicates high ATR regime. In high ATR regimes, stop placement and entries should assume 1–3k intraday swings are normal.

Volume / participation

• Volume surged into the selloff window (late Jan through Jan 31/Feb 1), consistent with distribution / liquidation.
• No clear “reversal confirmation” (i.e., strong bullish engulfing day reclaiming breakdown levels) is visible.

Pattern & level-based strategy synthesis

• Breakdown continuation setup: After a range expansion down (Jan 31), price often retests the breakdown area (79–81k) and fails.
• Intraday already showed a weak retest behavior (attempts near 79k rejected).
• Therefore, the higher-probability play for the next 24h is sell rallies into resistance rather than buy dips into fragile support.

Next 24 hours — probabilistic path

Base case (higher probability):

• Price makes a minor relief bounce, struggles under 79.2–79.5k, then continues lower to test 75.8k again; if that breaks, extension toward 74k–72.5k becomes likely.

Alternate case (lower probability):

• A stronger short-covering rally reclaims 79.5k and holds, pushing toward 81k. Even then, that likely remains a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend unless 84k is reclaimed.

Trade plan decision

• Given dominant downtrend, failed intraday rebound, and overhead supply stacked above, the setup favors a Short (Sell).

Optimal open (entry)

• Prefer selling a bounce into resistance to improve R:R.
• Best tactical entry zone: ~79,200 (near the intraday rejection/supply).
• If price never bounces that high, a secondary (more aggressive) entry would be a breakdown sell below 75.8k; however you asked for one open price, so the bounce-sell is chosen.

Take-profit (close)

• First meaningful downside objective: ~74,200 (between 75.8k support break and the next support pocket; also leaves room for front-running bids).

Note: In this volatility regime, risk controls matter; a logical invalidation for the short thesis is acceptance above ~81k, but you didn’t request stop-loss.