BTC Relief Bounce Into Heavy Supply: Favor a Short Fade Below 79.2k for a 24h Mean-Reversion Drop

Market snapshot (given data)

• Instrument: BTCUSD
• Current price: 78,426.93
• Last daily candles:
  • 2026-01-29 close 84,561.59
  • 2026-01-30 close 84,128.66
  • 2026-01-31 close 78,621.12 (large breakdown day; low 75,815.88)
  • 2026-02-01 close 76,974.45 (continuation; low 75,698.90)
  • 2026-02-02 (in-progress, up to 21:57Z) close 78,426.93 (attempted rebound; low 74,567.17, high 79,151.98)

1) Higher-timeframe trend (Daily structure)

A. Trend & market structure (HH/HL vs LH/LL)

• From mid-Jan (peak around 97,860) the sequence turned into lower highs and lower lows.
• The sharp Jan 31 breakdown (close ~78.6k from ~84k area) confirms a bearish regime shift.
• The current bounce to ~78.4k is best classified as a bear-market rally / relief bounce unless price reclaims broken supports.

Implication: Daily structure remains bearish; rallies are more likely to be sold until proven otherwise.

B. Key daily support/resistance (S/R)

• Major resistance zone: 84,000–85,100 (recent breakdown origin 1/29–1/30 closes; likely supply).
• Intermediate resistance: 79,150–79,300 (2/2 intraday high area; also near psychological 80k).
• Immediate resistance: 78,800–79,000 (intraday pivots).
• Major support zone: 75,700–75,800 (2/1 low and 1/31 low neighborhood).
• Capitulation wick support: 74,567 (2/2 intraday low; “panic” low).

Implication: Current price sits below multiple resistance layers; upside is likely capped around 79.2k–80k unless a true trend reversal occurs.

2) Intraday (1H) price action & order-flow style read

A. Intraday range and momentum

• 2/2 hourlies show a classic selloff → base → rebound:
  • Early hours pushed down to 74,567.
  • Recovery progressed to 79,207 then failed to hold above ~79k.
  • Late hours show stalling around 78.4k–79.0k with repeated rejections.

Interpretation: Short-term demand exists (buyers defended sub-76k), but the rebound is corrective and currently losing momentum near resistance.

B. Supply/demand zones (intraday)

• Supply: 78,900–79,200 (multiple touches; rejection risk)
• Demand: 76,800–77,200 (prior consolidation and bounce pivot)
• Extreme demand: 75,700–76,000 (daily swing support)

Implication: Better risk/reward generally comes from selling into supply rather than buying into resistance in a bearish daily regime.

3) Volatility, “regime”, and expected move (next 24h)

A. Daily true range expansion

• Recent daily candles have very wide ranges (e.g., 1/31: ~84,137 high to ~75,816 low).
• 2/2 also shows a large intraday span (79,152 → 74,567).

Implication: Volatility remains elevated; both directions are possible, but in bearish regimes volatility typically resolves down after relief bounces.

B. 24h path-of-least-resistance (scenario analysis)

Base case (highest probability): bearish pullback after relief bounce

• Price likely attempts one more probe into 78,800–79,200.
• Failure there increases probability of retrace toward 77,200, then 76,800, potentially 75,800.

Bull case (lower probability): squeeze above intraday supply

• A sustained break and hold above 79,200 could run toward 80,000–80,800 (psych + air pocket), but this would still be countertrend unless daily closes reclaim ~84k.

Bear case (tail risk): renewed liquidation

• If 75,700–75,800 breaks, revisit 74,567 becomes likely, with extension risk toward low-73k (not in the provided levels, so treated as extrapolation).

4) Classic indicator-style conclusions (derived from price behavior)

(No indicator values were provided; conclusions are inferred from price/structure characteristics.)

• Moving-average logic: Price is far below prior month’s trading band (90k area), implying price is likely below key MAs → bearish bias.
• RSI-style behavior: The drop from ~89k to mid-70s suggests a recent oversold condition; the rebound to 78k resembles a mean-reversion bounce, not a trend reversal.
• MACD-style behavior: Sharp negative impulse (1/31–2/1), followed by weaker rebound impulse → typical of bearish continuation setup after a corrective rally.
• Bollinger-band logic: Wide ranges imply bands expanded; after band expansion, price often retests the mean then continues in direction of the dominant trend (down).

5) Pattern / price formation read

• On daily, the last week resembles a breakdown from a distribution zone (89k-ish region → 84k breakdown → 78k).
• On 1H, recovery from 74.6k to 79.2k resembles an A-B-C corrective structure; the “C” leg is losing steam near resistance.

Net pattern implication: Favor short into resistance with defined invalidation.

Next 24 hours forecast (directional)

• Slight bearish to bearish bias: expect choppy to downward movement.
• Probable 24h range (based on recent intraday pivots): 75,800 – 79,200.
• Most likely magnet levels: 77,200 then 76,800.

Trade plan (single decision)

Given (1) bearish daily structure, (2) relief bounce stalling under 79.2k, and (3) high-volatility environment favoring fades at resistance:

• Decision: Sell (Short)
• Optimal open: Prefer to short into supply rather than at the exact last print. The best open is near the 78,900–79,200 supply.
• Take-profit: First meaningful support is 76,800 (intraday demand). This offers a realistic 24h target without requiring a full capitulation break.

(Risk note: Invalidation conceptually occurs on a sustained reclaim above ~79,200–80,000; however you asked only for open/close prices.)