BTC: Inside-Day Coil Sets Up a Buy-the-Dip — Targeting 88.6k Within 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for BTC/USD (data through 2025-11-25 21:57 UTC)

1. Market context and recent structure

• Macro swing: From the October peak (~126.2k on 2025-10-06) BTC entered a prolonged drawdown to the November 21 local low (~80.66k), followed by a 3-day rebound into 88.27k (Nov 24) and a modest pullback today to ~87.04k. The major trend is still down on higher timeframes, but the past 3 sessions have built a potential basing attempt with higher closes (85.09k → 84.65k → 86.81k → 88.27k → 87.04k current).
• Daily pattern today: Inside day versus Nov 24 (today’s range 86.14k–88.46k sits within yesterday’s 85.27k–89.21k). Inside days reflect compression and often precede directional breakouts. Given the two-day rebound preceding it, bias slightly favors continuation higher unless 86.1k breaks decisively.
• Hourly structure (Nov 24–25): Price oscillated between demand ~86.15–86.25k (multiple successful tests) and supply ~88.35–88.45k (capped rallies). The repeated defense of 86.2k forms a short-term higher-low structure vs. the prior daily low (85.27k), signaling buyers absorbing dips.

2. Support/Resistance mapping

• Immediate demand: 86.10–86.25k (today’s repeated intraday floor); 85.30–85.50k (Nov 21/25 cluster); psychological 85k; deeper daily support 84.65k (Nov 22 close) and 82–83k.
• Immediate supply: 88.35–88.45k (today’s and early-session cap), 89.2k (yesterday’s high), round figure 90k. Above that, 91.4k (Fib 23.6% retrace of 126.2k→80.66k leg) is the next key pivot.

3. Moving averages and trend gauges

• 5-day SMA ≈ 86.37k: Price marginally above → short-term bullish tilt.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 88.92k: Price below → near-term recovery not yet re-taking key short-term baseline; acts as dynamic resistance.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 95.06k: Well above price; confirms the broader downtrend and substantial mean-reversion headroom if the bounce extends.
• 50-day/100-day (approximate): likely far above spot given the October highs, reinforcing that the medium-term regime is still bearish, but oversold conditions have allowed a bounce. Interpretation: Mixed — short-term (5D) improving, but 10D/20D still overhead. That often creates a range/trend transition environment with upward mean-reversion attempts capped by nearby MAs.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approximate): recovering from oversold; likely in the high 30s to low 40s. This supports the notion of a relief bounce still having room before typical mid-range (50) resistance.
• Hourly RSI(14): centered to slightly sub-50 through most of the session, consistent with rangebound consolidation with a slight upward bias as dips keep getting bought ~86.2k.
• Stochastic (daily): curling up from oversold, a classic early-cycle bounce signal; on hourly, oscillating mid-range, providing timing signals to buy dips into support. Implication: Momentum has ceased deteriorating and is turning up on shorter frames, favoring buy-the-dip tactics until strong resistance is met.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Histogram has been contracting (less negative) post-80.66k low — early signs of downside momentum exhaustion. The signal line remains below zero, but inflection points like this often precede 1–3 day continuation bounces.
• Hourly MACD: Flat to slightly positive during Asian/early EU hours; minor negative flips on pullbacks; nothing suggests impulsive downside as long as 86.1k holds. Implication: A near-term momentum expansion to the upside is plausible if price reclaims 88.4–88.5k.

6. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR elevated after the early-November shocks. Today’s inside day reflects short-term volatility contraction (“coiling”). Contractions typically resolve with a range expansion move within 1–2 sessions.
• Hourly true range: roughly 300–600 over most bars with larger spikes on liquidity sweeps (e.g., around 14:00 and 19:00 UTC). Expect 24h realized range ~2.0–2.8k if a breakout occurs, otherwise 1.5–2.0k if the range persists. Implication: The setup is primed for a push toward the top of the 88.4–89.2k band or, if failed, a flush into 85.3–85.5k.

7. Bollinger Bands (20D)

• Mid-band near ~95.1k; price sits in the lower half of the envelope despite the recent bounce. That leaves upside room for a continued mean-reversion drift without yet challenging the mid-band. On the hourly, bands have tightened, consistent with the inside day dynamic. Implication: A pop to upper hourly bands ~88.6–89.0k is feasible if buyers push through 88.4k.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing (126.2k → 80.66k): 23.6% retracement ≈ 91.4k; 38.2% ≈ 98.1k; 50% ≈ 103.4k. Current price is below the first retrace, so the bounce is still shallow — structurally there’s room to retrace higher in coming days if demand persists.
• Minor swing (80.66k → 88.27k): pullback depths: 38.2% ≈ 85.36k; 50% ≈ 84.97k; 61.8% ≈ 83.57k. Today’s lows around 86.14k represent a shallow retracement (stronger tape characteristic) holding above 38.2–50% levels. Implication: The shallow retrace adds confidence to buy dips above 86k for a re-test of 88.4–89.2k.

9. Ichimoku (directional bias, approximate)

• On daily, price remains below the cloud with a down-sloping Kumo. However, Tenkan is likely turning up and may be below price; Kijun higher around low-90s. A classic bear-market rally configuration: early mean-reversion towards Kijun is possible over several days; near-term, Tenkan supports pullbacks. Implication: Within 24h, the Ichimoku context doesn’t block a test of 88.4–89.2k while larger resistance (Kijun/cloud) remains higher.

10. Volume and market profile

• Daily: Intense sell volume climaxed Nov 21, then declined on the rebound — a constructive sign of selling exhaustion. Today’s intraday showed notable buy responses at 20:00 and 21:00 UTC near session mid, and repeated defense of 86.2k with no follow-through selling.
• Intraday profile: HVNs around 87.0k and 87.8k; LVN around 86.6k. Acceptance near 87.0k suggests it’s a fair price; rejection wicks from ~86.2k indicate latent demand. Implication: A push from HVN 87.0k back to HVN 87.8k and into the 88.4k supply is the path of least resistance if 86.1k holds.

11. Candlestick/price action signals

• Inside day after two up days: continuation probability modestly favors an upside break if the prior trend was up (micro-trend is up). A break above 88.45k would likely target 88.8–89.2k swiftly. Conversely, a clean break under 86.1k could air-pocket to 85.3–85.5k.
• Multiple failed breakdowns at ~86.17k during the session are constructive for longs; sellers couldn’t extend after probing the floor.

12. Mean reversion and VWAP

• Price has spent much of the day below the session open and likely near/below intraday VWAP during sell waves; the late-session recovery into 87.1k hints at VWAP reversion attempts. Over the next 24h, a VWAP magnet effect into 87.8–88.4k is a reasonable base case.

13. ADX/Trend strength

• ADX (daily) likely receding after the heavy downtrend impulse — signals a transition to range/mean reversion. On the hourly, trend strength is low-to-moderate, compatible with range trading and break attempts from compression.

14. Elliott/Rhythm assessment (heuristic)

• A large A-leg down to 80.66k followed by a B-wave bounce to 88.27k with a minor intraday b pullback today sets the stage for a small c-wave higher into 88.6–89.2k before reassessing.

15. Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Bullish factors: Shallow retracement of the 80.66k→88.27k upswing; repeated intraday defenses of 86.1–86.2k; inside-day coil after a two-day rise; recovering momentum (RSI/MACD) and fading sell pressure.
• Bearish risks: Price still below 10D/20D MAs; a break of 86.1k could re-open 85.3–85.5k and even 84.65k; major trend remains down.
• Probability-weighted view (24h): Slightly bullish within a defined 86.0k–88.8k range. Base case is a re-test of 88.35–88.45k, with a reasonable chance of extension to 88.6–88.8k if the inside-day breaks up. Downside tail involves a liquidity sweep to 85.5k that likely gets bought unless macro catalysts hit.

16. Trade plan (tactical)

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip into the defended demand zone, aiming for the top of today’s supply band. Let price come to us rather than chasing mid-range.
• Entry (limit): ~86,250 (just above the repeatedly defended intraday floor to increase fill probability and reduce slippage).
• Target (take profit within 24h): ~88,600 (tests above the 88.35–88.45k supply and near the upper intraday band). If momentum is strong, trail, but for the purpose of a defined plan we fix TP at 88.6k.
• Suggested (not required) stop for risk control: ~85,500 (below session floors to avoid noise; R:R roughly 2.6:1 from 86.25k → 88.6k target vs 85.5k stop ~750 risk for ~2,350 reward).

Conclusion: Buy (Long). Expect a 24h drift to retest 88.4–88.6k with a constructive setup as long as 86.1k holds. A clean break over 88.45k likely accelerates toward the 88.6–89.2k pocket; conversely, loss of 86.1k invites a quick flush to 85.3–85.5k before buyers likely step back in.