BTC: Spring at 100k, Momentum Turns Up — Targeting a 104.9–106.3k Relief Rally

Executive view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (countertrend bounce) with resistance overhead. Expect a buy-the-dip setup toward 102.8–103.2k followed by a push into 104.9–106.3k if momentum holds. Risk of bull trap remains; loss of 101.8–102.2k likely reopens 100k and sub-100k liquidity.

1. Structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Macro daily structure: Lower highs since the Oct peak cluster (125.6k–126.2k on Oct 5–6; 114.1k–114.5k on Oct 26–29) and fresh lower low today (intraday 99,310), confirming a prevailing daily downtrend.
• Drawdown context: From 126,198 (Oct 6) to 99,310 (Nov 7 intraday) ≈ −21.3%. The move is extended, increasing odds of a mean-reversion bounce.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: From today’s 12:00 UTC low at 99,309.96, price carved a sequence of higher lows and higher highs, topping at 103,852 (20:00). Currently consolidating just under that high (103,784) — constructive if pullbacks hold above 102.5–103.0k.

2. Moving averages (daily and hourly)

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~111–112k (averaging closes from Oct 11–30). Price (103.8k) is well below 20SMA → dominant daily trend remains down.
• Daily 50SMA (approx): Likely in the 113–115k area given prolonged trading in Oct above 110k → also above price; bearish alignment.
• Hourly 20EMA: Rising and tracking ~102.7–103.0k after the afternoon rally. Price holding above this EMA supports a continuation attempt toward prior intraday highs.
• Read-through: Daily MAs say trend-down; intraday MAs say bounce-in-progress. Net effect: Countertrend long setups are valid but must respect nearby resistance and use tight risk.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): Low-to-mid 30s after the accelerated selloff into Nov 4–7, rebounding today. Suggests oversold/overshoot conditions with room to mean-revert higher before hitting classical 50 resistance.
• Hourly RSI: Likely ~58–62 after the thrust from 99.3k to 103.9k. Not overbought; supports a second push higher if dips are bought.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with negative slope, but histogram contraction is likely starting as today’s rebound develops. This points to a potential short-term bullish inflection without changing the primary trend.
• MACD (hourly): Bullish crossover earlier in NY session; histogram positive and rising — constructive for follow-through.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): 3,800–4,500 based on recent ranges (e.g., 11/4 range ~7.3k; 10/10 crash day >17k; typical recent days 3–6k). Today’s range (so far) ~4.5k — consistent with elevated, but normalizing, volatility.
• Hourly ATR(14) (approx): 650–900. Suggests intraday swings of 0.6–0.9k are routine; 2–3k moves require trend days or news.

5. Bollinger/Keltner/Donchian

• Daily Bollinger Bands: Price tagged/pierced the lower band today (99.3k) and mean-reverted inward, a classic short-term buy signal within a downtrend. Middle band (~20SMA near 111–112k) is far overhead; first realistic magnet is the hourly mid-band and daily band interior.
• Keltner Channels (hourly, ATR-based): Price is pressing upper KC; a standard behavior is a mild pullback to EMA basis (≈102.7–103.0k) before attempting another expansion.
• Donchian (20-hour): High ≈103.85k, low ≈99.31k. Break-and-hold above 103.85k opens the 104.9–106.3k zone.

6. Fibonacci mapping (bearish swing to today’s low) Using swing high 114,119 (Oct 27) to today’s low 99,310:

• 23.6%: 102,805 (reclaimed)
• 38.2%: 104,960 (first key resistance)
• 50%: 106,960 (bigger test)
• 61.8%: 108,961
• 78.6%: 111,967 Current 103,784 sits between 23.6% and 38.2%. Expect magnetic pull toward 38.2% (≈104,960). A strong session could stretch to the 50% (≈106,960), but that likely requires a clean hourly breakout and robust breadth.

7. Horizontal support/resistance and liquidity

• Supports: 103.0k (hourly 20EMA/volume node), 102.3k–102.6k (daily pivot region), 101.5k (recent consolidation), psychological 100k (major liquidity), 99.3k (session low/spring).
• Resistances: 103.85k (session high), 104.96k (38.2% Fib), 106.25k (R1 from pivots), 106.96k (50% Fib), 108.96k (61.8% Fib), 110.9k (R2 pivot/daily supply), 111.7k–112k (Fib 78.6%/prior top of balance).

8. Pivots (classic) based on last completed day (Nov 4: H 107,265, L 98,962, C 101,591)

• Pivot P ≈ 102,606
• R1 ≈ 106,250
• S1 ≈ 97,947
• R2 ≈ 110,909 Price is above P and working toward R1; common path is pullback to/near P then extension to R1 in a constructive session.

9. Volume, VWAP, OBV-style read

• Hourly volume spikes clustered at 20:00–21:00 as price accepted above 103k, suggesting a developing value area near 103.3–103.7k; earlier capitulation volumes around 99.6–100.5k suggest a spring/stop-run.
• Intraday VWAP (approx): 102.0–102.5k given heavy early volumes near lows and steady buying above 102.5k later. Currently trading above VWAP — buyers in control intraday.
• Read-through: If price stays above VWAP on dips, expect continuation to test 103.85k and 104.96k. A VWAP loss that holds opens a retest of 101.8–102.2k.

10. Ichimoku (hourly approximation)

• Tenkan rising ~102.7–103.0k; Kijun ~101.9–102.1k. Price above Tenkan/Kijun is bullish short-term.
• Cloud: After the bounce, price may be probing top of/just outside the cloud. A bullish Kumo breakout is typically followed by a retest (LPS) before further advance — watch 102.7–103.0k as the LPS zone.

11. Candlestick/price action patterns

• Daily: Today is shaping into a long lower-shadow candle/hammer-like bar off a round-number flush (100k). If it closes near/above 103k, it’s a credible short-term reversal signal within a bigger downtrend.
• Hourly: V-shaped recovery and bull flagging under 103.85k. A clean 1H close above 103.85k favors a measured leg toward 104.9–106.3k.

12. Elliott/Wyckoff framing

• Elliott (intraday): The rally from 99.3k appears impulsive (i–ii–iii into 103.85k), now consolidating in iv; a modest v-wave can extend to 104.9–105.5k; stretched target 106.0–106.3k if momentum persists.
• Wyckoff: Accumulation characteristics with a spring (sub-100k sweep), sign of strength (push above 103k), and potential LPS on pullback to 102.7–103.0k. Completion implies markup toward 104.9–106.3k.

13. Confluence and scenarios

• Bull case (55–60%): Hold 102.7–103.0k on dip; break/close above 103.85k triggers squeeze to 104.9k (Fib 38.2%) and, with follow-through, to 106.25k (R1). Stretch target 106.9k (Fib 50%).
• Base case (30–35%): Range 102.3–103.0k to 103.8–104.0k; choppy consolidation below breakout; modest upward bias remains.
• Bear risk (10–15%): Fail 102.3k, lose VWAP and Kijun; fast move to 101.5k then 100k; another liquidity sweep (98–100k) possible if macro offers no support.

14. Risk management notes (for context)

• Invalidation for the long idea sits below 102.0–102.2k (VWAP/Kijun cluster). A deeper protective line is 101.5k. Given ATR, a 700–1,200 drawdown can occur intraday even in a bullish continuation.

15. Bottom line

• Primary trend down; short-term momentum up. The optimal tactical play is a buy-the-dip toward 102.8–103.1k with targets into 104.9–106.3k. Respect the 102.0–102.2k line; below it, the bounce thesis weakens materially.

Price forecast next 24h

• Expected path: Pullback into 103.0k area → breakout over 103.85k → test 104.9k; if sustained, extension toward 106.25k is feasible within the 24h window given current ATR and participation.