BTC: Pivot-Fail at 112.9k Sets Up a Sell-the-Rip Toward 109.7k in the Next 24 Hours

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis (using as many tools as possible)

1. Market context and price action snapshot

• Instrument: BTC/USD
• Current price (last print): 111,242.38
• 24h intraday structure (hourly): Lower highs from ~113.56 → 113.14 → 112.9 → 112.6 → 111.9 → 111.5 → 111.3. Buyers failed repeatedly at the 112.8–113.6 supply zone; price remains below session VWAP (inferred), confirming distribution intraday.
• Recent regime: Oct 6 high 126,198 → Oct 10 capitulation low 104,582 (massive volume) → bounce to ~115–116 (Oct 12–13) → renewed weakness; currently churning just above 110k.

2. Trend analysis (daily + hourly)

• Daily swing structure: Lower high set post-crash (Oct 13 close 115,271 below Oct 9 close 121,706). Today’s trade undercuts prior day’s close (113,119) and presses the 111–110k shelf. Structure remains a downtrend from early October highs.
• Moving averages (daily; approximations from provided closes): • SMA(20) ≈ 116,880. Price is ~4.8% below the 20-SMA (bearish).
  • SMA(50) likely ~116–117k given July–Sept distribution; price below it (bearish).
  • EMA(9) bias: weighted toward recent lows, estimated ~113.5–114.5; price below (bearish).
• EMA ribbon (8/13/21) posture: Compressed, flipped bear post-Oct 10; price trades below all fast EMAs (bearish continuation bias).
• Hourly trend: Persistent sequence of lower highs/lows; sellers defending 112.8–113.6. Downsloping 20/50-hour EMAs with price under both.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14, daily): Estimated 38–42 after the crash-bounce-fade sequence. Sub-50 momentum regime, not yet deeply oversold; room to fall before oversold rebound.
• RSI(14, hourly): Softly oversold at times (mid-30s), but mean-reverting bounces are being sold; momentum unable to reclaim 50 on rallies (bearish).
• MACD (12/26/9, daily): Below zero; histogram turned more negative as the post-crash bounce failed near 50% Fib. Bearish cross persists; momentum pressure remains to the downside.
• Stoch RSI (inferred): Recycling quickly near lows on 1h; fast resets fail to produce trend changes—consistent with bearish control.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14, daily) (approx): Elevated after Oct 10; ~5,500–6,000. Implies a 24h expected move of ±5–6k around spot. Current plan fits comfortably within that envelope.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, daily): Mid-band ≈ SMA20 ≈ 116,880. Given recent dispersion, lower band likely near ~106k–107k and upper near ~127k. Price sits in the lower quartile of the band, above the lower band but well under the mid-band—statistically favors either continued drift lower or a mild mean-reversion bounce that sellers fade.
• Keltner Channels (daily): Price hugging/near lower KC; BB > KC implies expansion phase after capitulation; trend-follow-through risk persists.

5. Support, resistance, and key levels (multi-method confluence)

• Classic pivots from 10/14 H/L/C (H=115,502.88; L=110,029.48; C=113,118.66):
  • Pivot P ≈ 112,883.7
  • R1 ≈ 115,737.9; R2 ≈ 118,357.1
  • S1 ≈ 110,264.5; S2 ≈ 107,410.3
  Interpretation: Today’s price is below P and oscillating above S1; rallies into P tend to be sold in a bearish day-type.
• Fibonacci retracement (Oct 6 high 126,198 → Oct 10 low 104,582; range=21,616):
  • 38.2% ≈ 112,842 (nearly equal to Pivot P—major confluence)
  • 50% ≈ 115,390
  • 61.8% ≈ 117,946
  Price lost the 38.2% level on today’s fade; rejection there aligns with a push toward the 23.6%/prior shelf next.
• Horizontal S/R zones:
  • Resistance: 112,600–113,600 (hourly supply, Pivot P≈112,884, Fib 38.2%≈112,842), 114,000–115,400 (prior bounce highs, 50% Fib), 116,800–117,000 (SMA20/61.8% Fib window).
  • Support: 110,250–110,300 (S1), 109,700 (Fib 23.6% from this swing and late-Sep closes), 108,800 (Aug 30 close), 108,410 (Aug 29 close), 104,582 (capitulation low).
• Psychological levels: 110,000 round number has acted as a sticky magnet; below it sits an air-pocket to 109.7k/108.8k.

6. Volume, participation, and market structure

• Volume climax: Oct 10 displayed capitulation-grade turnover; often marks SCLX (selling climax) in Wyckoff terms, but subsequent price action has not built a robust accumulation base—rather, we see an AR (automatic rally) to ~116 followed by a Secondary Test that is slipping lower.
• OBV/Volume trend (qualitative): Post-climax, up-days lacked the volume of the down-day, and recent fades show renewed participation on sells—indicative of distribution rather than absorption.
• Market profile/read: Value migrating lower from the 112.8–113.6 bracket; POC likely shifting down. Acceptance below 112.8 favors a test of 110.3 then 109.7.

7. Ichimoku system (daily)

• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ midpoint(126,198, 104,582) ≈ 115,390 (coincides with 50% Fib) above price (bearish).
• Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ mid of broader range (roughly ~116k) also above price (bearish).
• Cloud: Price below Kumo; Span A/B still elevated from prior uptrend; bearish bias until conversion above Tenkan/Kijun stack.

8. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• A-wave: Oct 6 → Oct 10 collapse.
• B-wave: Oct 10 → Oct 12/13 bounce topping near the 50% retrace (~115.4k).
• C-wave: Currently unfolding lower toward 109.7k (23.6% region) with potential extension to 108.4k if momentum accelerates. This aligns with the hourly lower-high sequence.

9. Statistical tilt and z-score vs mean

• Deviation from SMA(20) ~ -5.6k. If daily BB stdev is ~5.5k, z ≈ -1.0. One-sigma downside isn’t extreme; probability favors either continued drift to -1.5σ (~109.5–110) or a fade of any reversion rally to the pivot band (~112.8–113.0).

10. Hourly microstructure, timing, and triggers

• Supply cap: 112.8–113.6 repeatedly repelled price.
• Classic pivot P ≈ 112,884 = Fib 38.2% ≈ 112,842: high-confluence “sell the rip” zone.
• S1 ≈ 110,265: first magnet on weakness.
• Breakdown trigger: Clean hourly close below ~110,800 opens path to 110,265 then 109,700.
• If price mean-reverts first: Look to sell 112,600–113,000 with invalidation above ~114,400 (prior swing supply and near 50% retrace cluster).

11. Synthesis of tools

• Trend (MAs/Ichimoku/structure): Bearish.
• Momentum (RSI/MACD): Bearish sub-50 regime; negative MACD.
• Volatility (ATR/BB/KC): Elevated; room for a 2–3k swing within 24h.
• Levels (Fib/Pivots/Hz S-R): Strong confluence to fade 112.8–113.0; downside magnets 110.3 and 109.7.
• Volume/Wyckoff: Post-climax distribution > accumulation; rallies sold.
  Conclusion: Probability-weighted path over the next 24h favors a modest bounce into 112.6–113.0 being sold, with a push toward 110.3 then 109.7.

12. 24-hour price path scenarios

• Base case (≈60%): Mean-reversion pop to 112.6–113.0 fails; drift to 110.3 then 109.7. Close near 109.7–110.2.
• Alt 1 (≈25%): No bounce; breakdown through 110.8 → tag 110.3 and 109.7 faster; brief flush to 108.8 possible if liquidity thin.
• Alt 2 (≈15%): Squeeze above 113.0 toward 114.0–115.0 (near Tenkan/50% Fib) before sellers reassert; probability of full trend reversal in 24h is low without reclaiming/holding above ~115.4.

13. Trade plan inference (for decision and prices)

• Bias: Short (sell strength).
• Optimal entry: Limit into 112,600–113,000 zone; choose 112,850 for specificity (pivot/Fib confluence).
• Profit objective (24h): 109,700 (Fib 23.6% from the Oct 6–10 swing and late-Sep shelf).
• Optional contingency (not part of submitted prices): If no bounce prints, momentum entry on break/close <110,800 targets same 109,700; invalidation for the overall idea sits above ~114,400 where the 50% retrace supply reappears.

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

• Rationale: Downtrend across timeframes; failed reclaim of 38.2% retrace and daily pivot; momentum negative; high-confluence sell zone just overhead; downside magnets nearby within daily ATR.
• 24h Prediction: Test of 110.3k then 109.7k after a fade of any pop toward 112.8–113.0.