Fade the Bounce: BTC Likely to Retest 88k Pivot Before Sliding Toward 84k

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Relief bounce into 87.5–88.8k (former support/pivot) likely, then continuation lower toward 84–85k. Probability-weighted path favors fading the bounce.
• Trade idea: Sell a retest of the 0.236–0.382 Fibonacci cluster and classic pivot around ~87.6–88.8k. Target 83.8k where multiple supports/targets converge. Invalidation on daily reclaim/hold above ~90k.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher-timeframe (daily): Clear markdown from the Sep/Oct distribution top (~126k early Oct and ~123k early Oct) to a sequence of lower highs (Dec 9 ~94.6k; Dec 11 ~93.6k; Dec 14/15 ~90.5–90k) and lower lows (Dec 1 ~86.3k; Dec 15 ~85.3k). Price is below the 20/50/200-day SMAs (20D ~90–91k by rough aggregation; 50D likely ~102–105k; 200D ~108–110k). Bearish structure and moving-average stack.
• Intermediate (4h/1h): Breakdown from the 90–91k balance area, impulsive sell off during 14:00–18:00 UTC with expanding volume, followed by basing around 85.5–86.5k. Hourly shows potential for a corrective pop (lower-band pierce, minor bullish momentum divergence), but the structure remains a series of lower highs/lows.
• Conclusion: Trend is down. Countertrend bounces are opportunities to sell into supply until 90–91k is reclaimed and accepted.

2. Key levels: support/resistance, liquidity and volume profile

• Resistance/supply: 87.6–88.8k (confluence zone: classic pivot 88,769; 0.236–0.382 retrace of 94.6k→85.3k; intraday VWAP overhang/supply from breakdown), 90–91k (major HVN and breakdown ledge), 92–93k (upper daily resistance if reclaimed).
• Supports/targets: 85.3–86.0k (intraday low and S2 vicinity), 84.5–85.0k (prior Nov 22 close 84,648), 83.4–83.8k (measured move/Fib cluster), 80.7–81.0k (Nov 21 low 80,660 and next HVN).
• Liquidity: Visible stop pools likely rest below 85k (fresh swing low) and around 84.5k; above, notable liquidity sits around 88.5–89.5k (failed support) and 90–91k (major breakdown ledge). Expect sweeps toward these pools.
• Volume/market profile: Fat node at 90–91k; under that, 86–88k is a relatively thinner area that often traverses quickly. Next acceptance likely near 84–85k.

3. Momentum and mean-reversion gauges

• RSI (daily est.): Mid-30s; not deeply oversold, but in bearish territory. Plenty of room for another leg down after a small bounce.
• RSI (1h): Prints potential bullish divergence between the 15:00–18:00 UTC lows (price lower low to 85.3k while momentum didn’t make a fresh extreme). Supports a corrective bounce into resistance rather than trend change.
• Stoch/CCI (intraday): Turning up from oversold on 1h/2h, consistent with a short-term pop.
• MACD: Daily lines below zero and widening (bearish continuation). Hourly histogram contracting with potential cross up (fuel for bounce into supply, then likely roll over).

4. Volatility and range analysis

• ATR(14D) rough estimate: ~4.0–5.0k. Today’s high-low ~4.6k (89.95→85.34k), in line with ATR.
• 24h expected move: ±4–5k from spot. From ~86.2k, that suggests 82–91k as a plausible envelope. A rally into 87.5–88.8k and a selloff to mid-84s sits squarely within this band.

5. Bollinger Bands and Keltner/BB squeeze

• Daily BB mid ~20SMA ≈ 90–91k; price closed under mid and probed/pierced lower band today near 85–86k—often invites a reversion toward the mid-band or at least a tag toward the lower-to-mid channel (87–89k) before trend continuation.
• 1h BB: Lower-band walk paused; bands still expanded, consistent with a relief bounce then continuation.

6. Classic pivots (based on 2025-12-14 H/L/C: 90,498 / 87,635 / 88,175)

• Pivot P ≈ 88,769; R1 ≈ 89,903; R2 ≈ 91,632; S1 ≈ 87,040; S2 ≈ 85,906. Today tagged through S2 (~85.9k). A reversion toward P (88.8k) is a textbook fade zone aligning with Fib and supply.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing used: Dec 9 high 94,602 → Dec 15 low 85,337
  • 23.6%: ~87,571
  • 38.2%: ~88,754
  • 50%: ~89,969
  • 61.8%: ~91,183
• Expect a corrective pop into 87.6–88.8k; if exceptionally strong, 89.9–91.2k is next—but that would face heavy supply and likely fail on first test without accumulation.

8. Ichimoku (trend filter)

• Daily: Price below cloud, Tenkan < Kijun, Chikou below price—full bearish alignment.
• 1h/4h: Price below cloud; recent bearish Kumo twist. Any bounce into 88–90k likely meets cloud resistance.

9. Wyckoff/price cycle read

• Macro: Distribution top in Sep/Oct; currently Phase E Markdown. Rallies are secondary tests that fail below resistance.
• Intraday: Minor SOS-like bounce possible after a selling climax/auto-reaction around 85.3k, but with supply still dominant, the likely outcome is an upthrust into 87.5–88.8k and a roll.

10. Pattern-based targets

• Bear flag/ledge break from 90–91k: Pole height from 94.6k to 90k ≈ 4.6k projects to ~85.4k (hit), with extension to 83.5k on a measured move expansion. Aligns with next support cluster 83.4–83.8k.

11. Volume diagnostics

• 14:00–18:00 UTC: Heavy sell volume drove the break; later hours showed stabilization with absorption near 85.5–86.0k. OBV trend remains down; rallies into 88–90k should meet supply, barring a step-change in demand.

12. Risk management, invalidation, and scenario tree

• Base case (60%): Bounce to 87.5–88.8k then continuation to 84.0–85.0k; intraday wicks can probe 83.5–83.8k. Close around 85–86k.
• Bear extension (25%): Weak bounce stalls sub-87k; swift flush to 82–83k if 84.5k snaps amid volatility expansion.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong reclaim of 89.9–90.5k with acceptance turns structure neutral; above 91k opens 92.5–94k squeeze.
• Invalidation: A daily close back above ~90k and sustained acceptance >90.5k would negate the short bias for the next 24–48h.

13. Execution plan and levels

• Entry preference: Limit sell into 87.6k (Fib 0.236) to 88.8k (Fib 0.382/Pivot) zone. Primary trigger 87,600 for better fill probability.
• Target: 83,800 (measured move/structural support; captures bulk of expected move while front-running deeper supports).
• Protective stop (not required in fields; provided for risk context): 90,200 (above breakdown ledge/round-number; about 2.6k–2.8k risk vs ~3.8–3.9k reward; R:R ≈ 1:1.4). Tighter tactical stop 89,650 if execution near 88.8k.
• Contingency: If price fails to rally and instead breaks 85,500 with momentum, a momentum sell stop could target 83.8k directly; however, base plan favors selling the bounce.

14. 24-hour outlook and conclusion

• Expect a relief pop toward 87.5–88.8k as lower-band pierce and hourly momentum divergence play out, then supply at the 88–89k shelf to cap the move. Subsequent selling pressure likely pushes price toward 84–85k, with a high-probability magnet near 83.8–84.5k. Trend remains bearish until 90–91k is reclaimed.

Note: This is a tactical, short-term trading plan based on technicals only. Size and risk should reflect personal constraints and volatility.