Tradzar
Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
BTC at 95.5k After a Liquidity Sweep: Support Defense Sets Up a 24h Rebound Toward 97k
Market structure (Daily)
- Current price: 95,461
- Regime since Oct peak: clear downtrend / distribution from the 116k area (Oct 27 high 116,273) into a deep selloff (Nov 21 low ~80,660), then a basing phase (Dec) and a relief rally in mid‑Jan.
- Key swing points:
- Major swing high: 116,273 (Oct 27)
- Major selloff low: 80,660 (Nov 21)
- Recent breakout leg: Jan 12 close 91,193 → Jan 14 close 96,929 (impulse)
- Pullback: Jan 15 close 95,551 → Jan 16 close 95,461 (mild continuation lower)
Interpretation: The bigger picture is still a lower-high structure vs Oct, but Jan produced a short-term bullish impulse (91k → 97.9k intraday) that is now consolidating.
Trend & moving-average logic (proxy using recent closes)
Even without explicit MA values, the sequence of closes from late Dec into mid Jan shows:
- Late Dec/early Jan clustered around 87k–91k, then a push to 95k–97k.
- This implies short-term averages (5–10D) are rising and likely near/under current price, while longer averages (50D+) are probably above price given the Oct→Nov collapse.
Conclusion: Mixed timeframe alignment
- Short-term: mildly bullish-to-neutral (pullback within an up-leg)
- Medium-term: still recovering / below major prior value area
Support/Resistance mapping (Daily)
Resistance (supply zones)
- 96,900–97,900: Jan 14 close 96,929 and high 97,860 = fresh supply; price rejected from this region.
- 100,000–102,000: psychological + prior distribution area (mid‑Nov congestion near 101–105k).
Support (demand zones)
- 95,000–94,300: today’s intraday low zone (daily low 94,315) and repeated hourly reactions.
- 93,700–92,900: Jan 6–9 consolidation area; also aligns with “retest” zone if the breakout cools.
- 91,000–90,000: Jan 12 breakout base (daily low 90,055; close 91,193).
Implication: Current price is sitting on top of the nearest support band (95k-ish); a clean breakdown would likely seek 93k next.
Candlestick / price action (Daily + Hourly)
Daily
- Jan 13: strong bullish day (close 95,322) = momentum ignition.
- Jan 14: continuation (close 96,929) but with a higher high to 97,860.
- Jan 15: bearish pullback (close 95,551) after failing to extend.
- Jan 16: another slightly bearish day (close 95,461) with lower low (94,315).
This is consistent with a post-impulse pullback rather than an immediate trend reversal, but momentum has cooled.
Hourly (last ~24h)
- Early hours: tight range 95.5–95.8k then a drift lower.
- Notable drop: ~15:00 hour printed low ~94,268 and closed ~94,606 (local capitulation-like push).
- Subsequent rebound: 20:00 hour rallied and closed 95,399, then held ~95.4–95.5k.
Interpretation: A liquidity sweep below ~95k occurred (down to 94.27k) and was bought back to 95.4k. That often supports a short-term mean reversion up (unless price quickly loses 94.3k again).
Volatility & range logic (ATR-style inference)
- Recent daily ranges:
- Jan 14: 97,860 – 94,583 ≈ 3,278
- Jan 16: 95,774 – 94,315 ≈ 1,459 Volatility has contracted after the impulse day, typical of consolidation.
For next 24h, a reasonable expected range is ~1,300–2,200 unless macro/news expands it.
Fibonacci / measured move context (swing-based)
Using the Nov low ~80,660 → Jan high ~97,860:
- 38.2% retrace ≈ 97,860 - 0.382*(17,200) ≈ 91,290
- 23.6% retrace ≈ 93,800
Price at 95.5k is above the 23.6% retrace; the pullback is still shallow. If the pullback deepens, 93.8k becomes a high-probability magnet.
Volume read (Daily)
- Volumes were elevated during the Nov crash and also rose during Jan 13–15 (55–61B), suggesting participation on the move up, not just thin drift.
- Jan 16 volume ~33.8B is lower: selling pressure is not expanding, consistent with consolidation rather than panic.
Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): range-to-up mean reversion
- The hourly sweep to 94.27k and recovery suggests buyers defending.
- Expect BTC to probe back toward 96.2k–96.9k (midpoint + prior rejection), but may struggle to clear 97k on first attempt.
Bear case (invalidation): support failure
- A decisive break and acceptance below 94.3k likely opens 93.8k, then 92.9k.
Bull case (breakout): reclaim supply
- Acceptance above 97.0k–97.9k opens a quick run toward 99k–100k.
Net: Slight bullish bias for 24h due to liquidity sweep + support hold, but tight risk is required because the larger timeframe is still recovering.
Trade decision
Decision: Buy (Long)
- Rationale: price holding the 95k demand band after a downside sweep; volatility contraction favors a rebound toward the recent supply zone.
Optimal open (limit entry)
- Prefer buying on a pullback into support rather than chasing:
- Open Price (buy limit): 94,900
- This sits above the 94.3k sweep low but inside the defended demand zone.
Take-profit / close
- First meaningful resistance is the Jan 14 supply:
- Close Price (take profit): 96,850
- This targets the underside of the 96.9–97.9k rejection area, improving fill probability.
(Risk note for execution: a daily/hourly acceptance below ~94,300 would weaken the long thesis and increases odds of a move to ~93,800.)