BTC Rejected at 70.9k Supply: High-Volatility Rotation Points to a 68.2k Retest

Market context (multi-timeframe)

Current price: 68,878

1) Higher-timeframe structure (Daily)

• Primary trend (Nov → mid-Jan): strong bull impulse up into the 97–98k peak (2026-01-14 high ~97,860).
• Trend reversal / distribution: From 2026-01-14 onward, price makes lower highs and then breaks down sharply.
• Capitulation leg: 2026-02-05 prints a large breakdown day (close ~62,702) after a sequence of lower closes; that day also shows very large volume, consistent with panic selling / forced deleveraging.
• Post-capitulation rebound: 2026-02-06 closes ~70,555 (huge rebound), then range-to-down again; the rebound did not restore the prior uptrend (no reclaim of key breakdown levels like 75–78k).
• Current regime: Bearish-to-neutral (downtrend on daily, with a developing base). Price is trading well below the January distribution zone.

Key daily levels (from visible pivots):

• Resistance: 70,500–71,700 (rebound/flip area), then 72,200, then 75,600–78,600 (prior support turned resistance).
• Support: 68,000–68,300 (intraday pivot band), then 66,000–66,300, then 62,300–63,000 (capitulation base).

2) Intermediate trend (last ~2 weeks daily)

• 02-11 close ~66,992 → 02-14 close ~69,768: mild recovery.
• Today’s daily candle (02-15 so far): open ~69,759, high ~70,896, low ~68,091, current/close ~68,878.
  • This is a rejection from the 70.9k area and a close back under ~69k.
  • Net: recovery attempt is stalling under resistance.

3) Short-term structure (Hourly)

• Early session: push from ~69.5k to 70.8–70.9k (07:00–08:00).
• Midday: sharp drop to 69.4k, then continuation down to 68.26k (17:00), and a low around 68.09k on the day.
• Late hours: bounce back to ~68.8k.

Interpretation: hourly shows a lower-high / distribution pattern after failing at 70.9k, then impulsive selloff. Bounce looks like a relief retrace rather than a trend reversal.

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Indicator/technique stack (what each suggests)

A) Support/Resistance + Market Profile logic

• The strongest visible supply is 70.4k–70.9k (multiple hourly highs and today’s day-high rejection).
• Current price is below that supply; unless reclaimed, rallies into it are statistically more likely to be sold.
• Nearest demand is 68.1k–68.3k (today’s swing lows/pivots). If this breaks, path opens toward 66.2k.

Bias: Sell rallies under 70.5–70.9k.

B) Price action (swing structure)

• Sequence on hourly: HH to 70.9k → breakdown → LH attempts.
• The bounce to 68.9k has not broken any meaningful prior swing high (still far below 70.4k+).

Bias: continuation risk remains down.

C) Volatility / Range expansion (ATR-style reasoning)

• Recent daily ranges are large (e.g., 02-05 and 02-06 are extreme; even recent days show multi-thousand dollar ranges).
• Today’s range so far: ~70,896 high to ~68,091 low = ~2,805.
• With elevated volatility, the next 24h commonly produces another test of either:
  • prior low zone (~68.1k) or
  • supply retest (~70.4–70.9k)

Given rejection from supply already occurred today, retest of lows is slightly more probable than clean breakout.

D) Volume (contextual)

• Biggest volume clustered around capitulation (02-05/02-06). After that, volume remains elevated but not as extreme.
• This often precedes choppy, mean-reverting downtrends where rebounds are sold until a clear higher-low + reclaim forms.

Bias: fade strength until proven otherwise.

E) Trend/momentum proxy (without exact MA calc)

• From 01-14 peak (~97k) to current (68.9k): deep drawdown (-29%).
• Price remains far below prior equilibrium (75–78k zone) → trend proxy remains bearish.

Bias: bearish regime.

F) Candlestick logic (daily + hourly)

• Daily: attempted rally above 70k rejected; close back below ~69k resembles a failed breakout / bull trap.
• Hourly: impulsive sell candles from 12:00–19:00 indicate sellers in control intraday.

Bias: sell.

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24-hour outlook (probabilistic path)

Base case (higher probability):

• Price attempts a minor bounce (short covering) toward 69.4k–70.0k, meets supply, then rotates down to retest 68.1k–68.3k.
• If 68.1k breaks with momentum, next magnet is 66.2k–66.5k.

Bullish alternative (lower probability):

• Strong reclaim of 70.5k–70.9k on acceptance (hourly closes above) could squeeze to 71.7k–72.2k.

Net: with price currently below the main supply band and after a clear rejection, down/sideways bias for the next 24h.

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Trade plan (single decision)

Decision framework

• Location: under heavy resistance (70.5–70.9k)
• Structure: lower high + breakdown
• Volatility: favors quick rotations; better R:R on shorts initiated near resistance

Action: Sell (Short Position)

Optimal open price

• Best entry is not at the current price (mid-bounce), but on a pullback into resistance.
• Preferred short entry: 69,900 (retest zone before the main 70.4–70.9k supply; improves fill probability vs waiting at the extreme).

Take-profit / close price

• First meaningful demand retest: 68,200 (near today’s swing-low band 68.1–68.3k).
• That provides a realistic 24h target consistent with current volatility.

24h forecast: mildly bearish; expect rotation toward 68.2k with risk of extension to 66.3k if support fails.

(Note: This is technical, data-driven analysis only; crypto is highly volatile.)