Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Technical Analysis: Decisive Confluence at Critical Levels

1. Long-Term Trend (Daily Time Frame)

• Trend Analysis: Since mid-March 2025, the BTC chart exhibits a strong, persistent uptrend. After a base in the $75k–$85k band, price action pivoted aggressively upward, breaking out above $90k in late April and holding above this region after several attempts to retest.
• Recent Weeks: Multiple pushes into the $110k–$112k range created a local high before minor corrective pullbacks to $104k–$106k. The resilience in the $104k–$108k band suggests strong buyer support.
• Pattern Recognition: Since May, clear higher lows persist, punctuated by failed breakdowns—classic bullish continuation.
• Support/Resistance: Strong horizontal support sits at $104k (multiple daily closes; heavy volume nodes). Resistance noted at $109k–$111k; above this, all-time-high breakout territory resumes.

2. Short-Term Trend (Hourly/Intraday)

• Current Setup: The past 24 hours show a corrective move from $110k+ ($110,295–$110,384 highs) with a retrace to $106,000. Intraday lows coincided with pronounced volumes, indicating possible capitulation/absorption and local demand.
• Order Block/Volume Analysis: Volume peaked to over $54bn at both ends of the June 12 session—correlates with low establishing ($105,856 intraday). Quick reversion from these lows points to short-term exhaustion on the sell side.
• Structurally: The price formed a choppy sideways base between $106k–$108k following a rejection from higher levels, but significant wicks below $106k were rapidly bought.

3. Volatility & Momentum Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Expanding ATR across daily and hourly suggests large price swings—favorable for short-term trading opportunities.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Daily RSI is in the 60–65 zone; this is neutral-bullish but far from overbought. Hourly RSI recently dipped near 40 and rebounded—a potential momentum inflection.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Daily MACD shows a shallow bullish cross in May, maintaining positive histograms even as price consolidates—indicative of trend strength.
• Stochastic Oscillator (Hourly): Oversold on the intraday dip to $105,900, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

4. Market Profile & Order Flow

• Volume Profile: Massive transaction clusters at $106k–$108k and $110k. This marks both as significant interest areas—likely to serve as inflection and magnet levels for the next move.
• Liquidity Maps: Stop-loss accumulations below $106k; significant buy-side liquidity above $108.5k–$109k (previous session highs) sets up a possible squeeze if price moves decisively from current levels.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (21 EMA, 50 EMA): Hourly 50 EMA is at ~$106,800; the price recently lost, retested, and failed, but returned to this mean zone, suggesting equilibrium.
• Long-Term (200 EMA, Daily): The daily 200 EMA trails well behind, confirming the uptrend's magnitude but offering little immediate support.

6. Chart Patterns & Candlesticks

• Bullish Engulfing: The past five hourly candles show attempts at reversal wicks—buyers absorbing dips under $106k.
• No Double Top/Head & Shoulders: No readily apparent macro topping formation is visible; price action remains constructive for another push up if $108k is reclaimed.
• Micro Channels: Within the $105,850–$108,750 zone, a slightly downward sloping channel is visible; breakout above $107,800 would confirm a bullish reversal.

7. Fibonacci Retracement & Projections

• Using the recent swing low ($101,575 on June 5th) to swing high ($110,384 on June 11th), the 38.2% retracement lands at ~$107,210 (already tested/held today). The 50% ($105,980) was briefly breached intraday, acting as major pivot.

8. Elliott Wave & Momentum Flow

• Probable Wave Count: The corrective structure from $110,384 to $106,000 could represent a smaller degree wave 2 within a broader bullish impulse. The impulsive recovery from these levels aligns with this thesis.

9. Sentiment & Flow

• Volume Spike on Dips: Repeated large volume spikes on touch of support bands ($105,900–$106,200) suggests opportunistic institutional accumulation. No panic-selling; dips rapidly absorbed.
• Derivatives Premiums: Evidence of short liquidations in the $106k–$107k zone per order book footprints; possible fuel for a short-term rally if resistance breaks.

10. Confluence & Summary

• Summary:
  • Uptrend remains intact overall; corrections are being bought.
  • Multiple timeframes converge support between $105,900–$106,200.
  • Volume/Order flow evidence of absorption and positioning for upward move.
  • Reclaiming $107,800–$108,000 on hourly closes will likely usher a test of $109,500+ within 24h.
  • Downside invalidation if price closes < $104,500 with heavy volume, but this is currently unlikely.

11. Optimal Trade Plan

• Strategy: Buy (Long) on retests at the $106,000–$106,200 level, ideally amid another dip; target close on approach to $109,450 (confluence of volume resistance and previous session high). Stop-loss strategy (not requested, but for completeness): Consider using $104,800–$105,200 region, below session lows.

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Predicted Price Movement: Expect short-term consolidation between $106k–$108k, followed by a bullish breakout toward $109,450 within the next 24 hours, provided no black-swan catalyst emerges. R/R (risk/reward) favorably skewed to the upside at current levels.

Conclusion: The technical and order flow picture points to a BUY (Long) position opened on the next minor dip or hold at $106,000–$106,200, with a profit target just below the next resistance at $109,450.