BTC: Sell the 86.7k Retest — Targeting 84.2k Within 24 Hours

Overview and context

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
• Current price (2025-12-17 21:57 UTC): 85,946
• Time horizons assessed: Daily trend since September; intermediate November–December swing structure; intraday (hourly) session for 2025-12-17
• Objective: Forecast next 24 hours and determine optimal tactical entry, direction, and target

1. Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily) trend: Bearish. After peaking above 120k in late Sep/early Oct, price cascaded lower (notably the Oct 10 crash and the sustained November markdown). Subsequent rebounds into early December failed to break the sequence of lower highs. The structure from 12/03–12/11 printed a lower high near 94.6k vs prior 120k+, then rolled over. Recent closes: 12/15 at ~86.4k, 12/16 at ~87.8k, and today back below 86k. Net: lower highs and lower lows persist; rallies are being sold.
• Intermediate swing structure (Nov–Dec):
  • 11/21 swing low: ~80.66k
  • 12/09 swing high: ~94.60k (lower high versus October)
  • Pullback since then has retraced to the 61.8% Fib zone (details below), now flirting with/just below that level.
  • Repeated failures between 90–94.5k formed a distribution shelf; recent action resembles redistribution beneath 90k.
• Intraday (hourly) 12/17 price action: Sharp upthrust to ~89.45–90.23k at 14:00–15:00 UTC, immediately reversed with heavy-volume sell to ~85.75k by 18:00–19:00. Price is consolidating 85.7–86.2k. The swift rejection suggests a bull trap/upthrust-after-distribution.

2. Key support and resistance zones

• Resistance
  • 90.0–90.5k: Round number + intraday 15:00 high; heavy supply evidenced by fast rejection.
  • 88.0–88.5k: Prior daily closes and local shelf (12/16 close ~87.84k) often flip to resistance; also likely near intraday Kijun/EMA clusters.
  • 86.7–87.2k: Intraday supply created post-dump; logical retest/sell zone if price bounces.
• Support
  • 85.4–85.8k: Intraday troughs (18:00–21:00 lows) and current balance area.
  • 84.0–84.5k: Next visible demand pocket and aligns with deeper Fib extension/78.6% of the 11/21–12/09 upswing.
  • 80.6–81.0k: Major swing low from 11/21; if broader selling resumes, this is the big downside magnet, but likely beyond 24h.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20SMA/20EMA (approx): Center of mass near ~90k. Price is below—bearish bias.
• Daily 50SMA: Estimated above current, likely in low-to-mid 100k region given October levels—reinforces bearish medium-term slope.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21/55 estimate): Post-15:00–18:00 dump, price sits beneath all, with downward alignment (8 below 21 below 55) consistent with near-term downtrend. Any bounce into 86.7–87.2k likely meets these EMAs and supply.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Sub-50 regime (approx mid-40s), consistent with bear control but not deeply oversold—room for continuation.
• Hourly RSI: Dipped to oversold during 18:00 selloff; now recovering toward neutral but capped under 50–55 area on bounces, typical of bear rallies within a downtrend.
• MACD
  • Daily: Momentum negative/rolling down since 12/09; histogram likely below zero; confirms trend pressure.
  • Hourly: Bearish cross occurred during the 15:00–18:00 reversal; weak attempts to curl upward have failed to recapture zero-line.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily range profile (late Nov–mid Dec): Typical true range ~2.5–4.5k; estimate 14-day ATR ~3–4k. Today already produced a >4k intraday swing (90.2k → 85.7k). Elevated, directional volatility is consistent with redistribution.
• Implication: A 2–3k move in the next 24 hours is feasible. From ~86k, a push to 84k (≈ -2k) is within normal ATR.

6. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• With a mid-band around ~20SMA (~90k) and recent daily volatility, the lower band likely sits near mid-to-high 85ks. Price is hugging/just under the lower band—momentum tape bearish but also susceptible to short-lived mean-reversion bounces into resistance (ideal for selling rallies rather than chasing breakdowns at local lows).

7. Fibonacci mapping (using 11/21 low ~80.66k to 12/09 high ~94.60k)

• 38.2%: ~89.32k (recent rejection cluster near 89–90k lines up with this).
• 50%: ~87.63k (12/16 close 87.84k hovered near it; now below it—bearish).
• 61.8%: ~86.06k (current price ~85.95k flirting with a decisive break). A sustained break beneath 86.06k often targets the 78.6% retracement.
• 78.6%: ~83.20k (logical next 24–72h downside waypoint if 86k flips to resistance).
• Takeaway: We’re transitioning from a 50%–61.8% retracement pause to a potential 61.8% breakdown; next magnet ~83–84.5k, with interim sticky node ~84.0–84.5k.

8. Volume, order flow, and VWAP context

• Today’s notable volumes: 15:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC show heavy sell flows, driving rapid downside. This is classic “upthrust then distribution dump.”
• Intraday VWAP (session): Price currently below estimated session VWAP; repeated failures to reclaim intraday VWAP after the dump reinforce sell-the-rip dynamics.
• Anchored VWAP from the 14:00 spike would sit well above current price; continued trading below it signals trapped longs overhead and overhead supply.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan and Kijun; the cloud is above price—bearish context. The Kijun (baseline) likely in upper-80s/low-90s; each retest has been sold.
• Hourly: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; cloud sloping down. Any bounce into 86.7–87.2k likely coincides with cloud underside—high-probability rejection area.

10. Chart patterns and price action tells

• 12/17 14:00–15:00: A fast breakout and immediate engulfing reversal with volume—textbook bull trap/upthrust. Often precedes at least one more leg down within 24–48h.
• Lows building around 85.7–86.0k show a small intraday shelf, but given macro-bear trend and supply above, that shelf looks more like a staging base for another breakdown unless 87.2–88.0k is reclaimed on volume.
• Candles since 18:00: Lower wicks printed but follow-through buying is weak; sellers reassert near 86.2–86.6k.

11. Wyckoff lens

• Macro: Distribution in the 90–94k area into early December; failed sign of strength (SoS) today; upthrust after distribution (UTAD-like behavior) intraday.
• Current phase: Redistribution below 90k. The 86k line is the hinge; losing it turns prior support into resistance and opens the way to the next demand zone in low-84s.

12. Elliott-wave context (lightweight, probabilistic)

• The post-12/09 structure reads like a 3-leg corrective down move (A–B–C) where C may be extending today. An extension leg often overshoots 61.8% retrace and probes toward 78.6% (~83.2k). Not a primary signal, but supportive of the bearish continuation thesis.

13. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Sell-the-rip. Early bounce toward 86.7–87.2k meets layered resistance (hourly EMAs/VWAP/cloud underside) and supply. Price rolls over to test 85.4–85.8k, then extends toward 84.2–84.5k before stabilizing.
• Range case (≈30%): Compression between 85.5k and 87.8k as market digests the dump; failure to take out 84.5k but also repeated failures under 87.8k.
• Bull reclaim (≈10%): Strong bid reclaims 88.0–88.5k, squeezes into 89.3–90.2k. Would require persistence above session VWAP/anchored VWAP and improving breadth. This would invalidate the short thesis short-term.

14. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Bearish continuation within a broader downtrend; prefer to sell strength rather than chase fresh lows at support.
• Optimal entry: Short on a controlled bounce into the 86.7–87.2k supply pocket. This aligns with: prior support turned resistance, hourly EMA confluence, cloud underside, and proximity to 50% retrace level-turned-resistance.
• Target: First take-profit zone 84.2–84.5k (matches 78.6% retracement path and visible demand pocket). Within 24h, a 2–2.5k slide is consistent with ATR and today’s momentum.
• Invalidation (for risk control, informational): A decisive reclaim and hold above 88.5–89.0k with rising volume (especially above today’s session VWAP) would negate the immediate short and put 90–91k back in play. Not part of the order fields, but crucial context.

15. Why not buy here?

• While price is near the daily lower Bollinger Band and the 61.8% retrace, the tape shows distribution with heavy overhead supply and failure to hold VWAP after the upthrust. Mean reversion bounces are probable but favored as selling opportunities given the trend alignment and structure. A long would have poor asymmetry unless 88.5–89.0k is reclaimed first.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• Expect a relief bounce into 86.7–87.2k to be sold, with a follow-through push toward 84.2–84.5k within the next 24 hours. Broader trend remains bearish; rallies are for fading until the market reclaims and holds above 88.5–90.0k with strength.