Tradzar
Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
BTC at a Fragile 68k Floor: Relief Rally Fades, Bearish Continuation Favored Next 24h
Market snapshot (context)
- Instrument: BTCUSD
- Current price: 68,582.77
- Data available: Daily candles (2025-11-13 → 2026-02-10) + hourly candles (last ~24h)
- Regime shift: A major breakdown occurred from late Jan into early Feb (high ~89k → low ~62.3k), followed by a sharp rebound to ~70.5k and then a stall / rollover back to 68.6k.
1) Multi-timeframe trend analysis
Daily structure
- Primary trend (since mid-Jan): Bearish.
- 2026-01-14 close ~96.9k → 2026-02-05 close ~62.7k is a steep, persistent sequence of lower highs/lows.
- Counter-trend bounce (Feb 6): 62.7k → 70.6k close is a relief rally after capitulation.
- Current status (Feb 10 close-to-now): price is back below ~70k and drifting down, implying the rebound is being sold.
Hourly structure (last 24h)
- Clear intraday downtrend from the early-hours peak (~70.4k) to the late print (~68.6k).
- Repeated failures to sustain bounces above ~69.9k–70.0k.
- Hourly sequence shows:
- early break from ~70.1k → ~69.4k (03:00)
- lower consolidation and drift to ~68.5k
- rebound attempts up to ~69.8k–69.9k were sold (17:00–18:00)
- renewed weakness into ~68.6k.
Takeaway: Daily is bearish / post-crash; hourly is bearish and making lower highs. This alignment favors downside continuation over the next 24h unless 70k is reclaimed.
2) Support / resistance mapping (price action + swing levels)
Key resistances (overhead supply)
- 70,000–70,600: psychological + post-bounce pivot area (Feb 6–10 congestion). Multiple hourly failures.
- 71,300–72,200: hourly/daily bounce ceiling (Feb 8 high ~72.2k).
Key supports (near-term)
- 68,300–68,000: immediate intraday shelf (multiple hourly lows clustered; current price hovering just above).
- 67,400–67,000: next support zone if 68k breaks (based on Feb 7 low ~67.36k).
- 66,000–65,500: measured-move / continuation area if selling accelerates.
- 62,300–63,000: capitulation base (Feb 5 low ~62.35k). Not the primary 24h target, but a tail-risk magnet if panic resumes.
Takeaway: Price is sitting on fragile support (~68k). In a bearish intraday trend, supports tend to break on retest.
3) Volatility & range behavior
Daily true range expansion
- Feb 5 candle: 73,161 high / 62,354 low → extreme expansion (capitulation signature).
- Post-capitulation: ranges remain elevated, meaning follow-through can be sharp in either direction; however, trend bias remains down.
Hourly volatility clustering
- Large impulse segments (03:00 drop; 14:00 spike down to ~67.93 then rebound; later fade).
- This pattern is typical of a market with aggressive two-sided flows but a net downward drift.
Takeaway: Elevated volatility increases the probability of a support sweep below 68k within 24h.
4) Candlestick / pattern read
Daily
- The overall shape from late Jan → early Feb resembles a breakdown + dead-cat bounce.
- Feb 6 strong bullish candle is followed by inability to hold above ~70k; this often precedes a second leg down.
Hourly
- Multiple lower-high rejections near 69.7k–70.0k.
- Presence of sharp wick events suggests liquidity hunting; in a downtrend these often resolve lower after stops above minor highs are taken.
Takeaway: Pattern bias points to distribution under resistance.
5) Moving average logic (qualitative, given data)
- With the massive drop from ~95k to ~62k, common MAs (20/50-day) would be sloping down and positioned above price.
- The rebound to ~70k likely did not re-establish price above declining medium-term averages.
Takeaway: MA regime likely remains bearish (sell rallies).
6) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)
- The crash likely pushed daily momentum into oversold; Feb 6 bounce is a mean-reversion.
- Current failure to extend above ~72k implies momentum recovery is fading, consistent with bearish continuation.
Takeaway: After relief-rally momentum fades, markets commonly retest prior lows or form a lower low.
7) Volume / participation (what the data suggests)
- Daily volume peaked during the selloff (Feb 5–6 very high), consistent with capitulation and then short-covering.
- Hourly volume spikes (where present) occurred on downswings and during volatile transitions, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation near 69–70k.
Takeaway: Participation does not yet signal a stable base; more likely a choppy grind down.
8) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): Downside continuation / support break
- Expect attempt to break 68,300–68,000.
- If 68k breaks cleanly, next magnets: 67,400 → 67,000.
- If risk-off accelerates, extension toward 66,000–65,500 becomes plausible within 24h.
Alternate case (lower probability): Bear trap and reclaim of 70k
- Requires sustained move back above 69,900–70,600.
- If that happens, upside squeeze could test 71,300–72,200.
Directional bias: Bearish for the next 24h unless BTC decisively reclaims 70k.
9) Trade plan logic (optimal entry vs current price)
Given the market is sitting just above support (68k), shorting immediately can be suboptimal because:
- You’re selling into support (higher bounce risk).
- Better expectancy often comes from selling a pullback into resistance or selling a breakdown retest.
Optimal short entry zone
- 69,400–69,800 is a preferred “sell-the-rally” region:
- it sits below the major 70k pivot (reduces squeeze risk)
- aligns with repeated hourly rejection area.
If price does not retrace and instead breaks down:
- Secondary entry tactic: sell on confirmed loss of 67,900–67,800 and/or retest from below.
Conclusion
Across daily + hourly structure, BTC appears in a bearish continuation phase after a capitulation bounce, with 69.7k–70.6k acting as overhead supply and ~68k as a vulnerable floor. Probability favors a move lower over the next 24 hours toward the mid/high 67k area, with potential extension to ~66k if selling pressure increases.
Decision: Sell (Short)