AAVE: Sell the Pop Into 231–233 — Targeting a Flush Toward 219 in the Next 24 Hours

AAVE – Multi-timeframe, multi-indicator deep dive (next 24h)

Summary view

• Context: After the Oct-10 flash-crash (low ~109 intraday, close ~226), AAVE staged a recovery to ~248 (Oct-27 high), then rolled over. Current price ~227.56 sits below short-term means and under multiple resistances (230–236, 240–242), placing price in the lower half of a developing post-crash range (roughly 218–241) with a bearish tilt.
• Next 24h bias: Down-to-sideways, with high odds of a liquidity probe into 224–221 and potential extension to ~219 (61.8% Fib of the 200.7→248.1 swing). Best tactical play: sell rallies into 231–235 where supply has repeatedly capped price.
• Expected 24h range: 218.5–234.5, skewed to the downside.

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily structure:
  • Aug peak zone ~357–383, then a long distribution and downtrend into Oct.
  • Post Oct-10 crash, AAVE rebounded to 248 (Oct-27), but has since made lower highs: 248 → 242 → 235 (Oct-29 intraday). That descending high sequence plus flat-to-weak support at 224–226 resembles a developing descending triangle; a decisive break of ~224 projects toward ~200 (height ~24).
• Intraday (hourly) structure on Oct-29:
  • Multiple failed pushes above 231–235, with a notable 18:00 bar selloff (high 232.1 → low 224.3) on elevated volume, then a lower close bounce that couldn’t reclaim 235.
  • The late-session drift back to 227s signals seller control into the new session.
• Key levels:
  • Resistance: 230.5–231.5 (intraday supply/VWAP area), 233–235 (hourly rejection zone), 240–242 (daily pivot cluster), 248 (swing high).
  • Support: 226–227 (minor, already softening), 224–225 (50% retrace + multi-touch shelf), 221–219 (61.8% Fib confluence / liquidity pool), 214 (prior reaction), 206–200 (major post-crash base).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 233.1. Price ~227.6 is below the 20SMA → short-term bearish; mean-reversion target sits above current price (233), favoring “sell the pop.”
• 50-day SMA ≈ 275–285 (falling): price is well below → medium-term downtrend intact.
• 200-day SMA ≈ ~290–300 (falling/flat-to-down): price well below → long-term bear regime.
• EMA stack (implied): EMAs are likely above spot with negative slope on shorter frames (hourly/4H), confirming bearish momentum.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: estimated low-40s (post-bounce loss of momentum). Weak but not oversold → room to fall before a reflexive mean reversion.
• Hourly RSI: estimated high-30s/low-40s after the 235→227 fade → can bounce, but primary momentum remains bearish unless price reclaims 231–233 with thrust.
• MACD (daily): likely rolled over after the rebound peak; momentum histogram contracting and fast line threatening/has crossed below signal → bearish momentum signal.
• MACD (hourly): below zero line with lower highs → confirms intraday sell strength on rallies.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily): normalized post-crash around ~12–15. Implies typical 24h move of ±5–7%. From 231, that’s to ~219–243; from current 227.6, ~215–240.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: midline ~233; lower band estimated ~209–212. Price sits below midline and in the lower half → negative skew; mean reversion magnet ~233, but band positioning supports selling pops vs. bottom-fishing.

5. Volume, VWAP, and profile cues

• Volume: Post-crash, red days are slightly heavier than green days → suggests distribution not accumulation.
• Hourly 10/29 18:00 candle showed elevated volume on a push down to 224.3, with only partial recovery afterward → supply dominant.
• Intraday VWAP (10/29 session): price repeatedly failed to hold above the 230–231 area → this zone acts as mean reversion sell window.
• Value area/high-volume node likely around 229–231; liquidity hunts above into 233–235 have been rejected, underscoring that as the best short-sell zone.

6. Fibonacci, pivots, confluences

• Swing considered: Oct-17 low (~200.7) to Oct-27 high (~248.1).
  • 38.2%: ~230.0 (just lost).
  • 50%: ~224.4 (key shelf).
  • 61.8%: ~218.8 (prime downside magnet on breakdown).
• Classic daily pivots (using Oct-28 H/L/C ~238.3/225.7/228.5):
  • Pivot P ≈ 230.8; R1 ≈ 235.9; S1 ≈ 223.4; R2 ≈ 243.4; S2 ≈ 218.2.
  • Current price below P and approaching S1 → bias for S1/S2 probes unless reclaimed above P.

7. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Price below Tenkan/Conversion (~9-period midline near 232–233) and below Kijun/Base (~26-period midline near 231–232).
• Price below cloud; lagging span likely under price and cloud → bearish regime.
• Expect rallies into Tenkan/Kijun to be sold unless clean break + follow-through.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle: Lower highs (248→242→235) compressing against a horizontal-ish support 224–226. Pattern resolution typically breaks lower in bear regimes; measured-move objective ~200 if confirmed. Not necessarily a 24h target, but guides the downside skew.
• Candlestick behavior: Repeated upper-wick rejections near 233–235 on the hourly; lack of bullish follow-through after intraday strength. Bearish intraday tells.

9. Wyckoff lens

• Post-crash range between ~218 and ~241 with supply showing up near the top of the range and effort-to-rise failing. This reads as distribution/weak hands unloading into strength rather than strong accumulation.

10. Liquidity and stop/limit dynamics

• Resting stops likely sit below 225 and 224 (equal-lows zone), with a larger pool under 219–218 (Fib 61.8, prior local lows).
• Above, liquidity pockets at 233–235 and again 240–242 (where short stops would sit). The path of least resistance in the near term is a sweep lower into 223–219 unless bulls impulsively reclaim 235+.

11. Statistical/mean-reversion framing

• With spot below the 20SMA/anchor VWAP cluster and momentum negative, the higher-odds trade is to sell a reversion to the mean (231–233) targeting the Fib/ATR confluence 219–224.

12. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60–65%): Early bounce into 231–233 fails; fade to 224–221; potential wick to ~219; close back near 222–226.
• Bullish alternative (≈20–25%): Strong reclaim of 233–235 with volume; squeeze toward 239–242 (R1/R2 cluster); would neutralize immediate short and set up range top tests.
• Bearish acceleration (≈10–15%): Clean break <223 with momentum; trend day down toward 218–216; risk of overshoot to ~214 if broader market weakens.

Trade plan synthesis

• Edge concentration at 231–235: multi-tool resistance (hourly supply, VWAP/20SMA zone, R1 235.9, prior rejection area).
• Downside magnet: 219–221 (61.8% Fib, S2 218.2).
• Risk control: Invalidate short on decisive reclaim/close above 236–237 (above R1 and above the recent rejection shelf), with 240–242 the next supply.

Actionable idea

• Direction: Sell rallies (Short).
• Entry: Limit sell ~231.8 (accept fills 231.0–233.0).
• Take profit (24h horizon): 219.2 (front-run the 218–219 confluence).
• Protective stop (not executed here but recommended): 236.8 (above R1/last supply shelf).
• R/R: From 231.8, risk ~5.0 to stop, reward ~12.6 to TP → ~2.5:1.
• Contingency: If no bounce and price breaks <224, consider a secondary plan: sell a retest of 224.5–225.5 with TP 219.5–218.5 and tighter stop above 229.5–230.5.

Catalyst and risk notes

• AAVE can gap on market-wide crypto moves; manage size.
• If price reclaims 235 with volume, step aside; a squeeze to 240–242 is likely before fresh decisions.

Conclusion

• Multiple independent tools align bearishly in the short term (below key MAs/VWAP, MACD down, RSI sub-50, descending triangle, pivot below P). The optimal tactic is to sell a mean-reversion pop into 231–233 with targets at 219–221 over the next day. A decisive reclaim of 236–237 invalidates the setup and flips the short-term tape to neutral-to-bullish toward 240–242.