ALGO’s Double‑Bottom Spring: Stalking a Pullback Entry for a Pop into 0.216

ALGO (Algorand) – multi-timeframe, indicator-stacked technical read and 24h roadmap

Summary view

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish continuation from an intraday breakout, within a broader daily downtrend. Expect a relief pop toward 0.212–0.216, with strong supply above. Optimal approach: fade deep pullbacks for a tactical long; avoid chasing into 0.214–0.218 supply.
• Core thesis: A double-bottom/spring around 0.201–0.203 printed a higher intraday low today, followed by a volume-backed 1h breakout through 0.209. Multiple tools (RSI divergence, MACD curl, Ichimoku TK cross on lower TF, pivot math, Fib 23.6%) converge around 0.212–0.216 as next magnet/resistance. The broader daily trend remains down (price < 20D/50D MAs), so treat this as a counter-trend bounce with defined targets.

Price structure and key levels

• Current price: 0.20994 (as of 2025-09-30 20:57 UTC).
• Recent daily trend: Lower highs/lower lows from mid-July peak (0.307 high on 7/14). September breakdown from ~0.246 to a 9/25 low at ~0.201. Since then, basing between ~0.202 and ~0.212, now attempting an intraday expansion.
• Support zones: 0.205–0.206 (intraday base), 0.202–0.203 (spring/stop-sweep), 0.200 round number (psych level, prior daily low 0.20098 on 9/25).
• Resistance/supply: 0.211–0.212 (intraday and daily pivot cluster), 0.214–0.218 (daily supply/VAH cluster from 9/22–9/24), 0.224–0.225 (Fib 38.2% and underside of broken structure), 0.231–0.233 (50% retrace + late-Aug HVN).

Multi-timeframe analysis

1. Market structure (Daily)

• Structure: Downtrend since mid-July. September put in a local capitulation to ~0.201–0.202, then a range. Today’s close (in progress) above 0.208 suggests a higher low vs 9/29 and an attempted push toward 0.211–0.214.
• Implication: Any bounce is counter-trend until price reclaims the 20D SMA (~0.226) and the 0.224–0.231 band. Near term, relief rallies fade into supply.

2. Market structure (1H)

• Intraday pattern: Day-long compression between 0.203–0.206, then breakout 19:00–20:00 UTC to 0.2099 on expanding volume. This looks like a classic range expansion after accumulation with a potential back-test to 0.208–0.209 likely before continuation.
• Liquidity: Resting stops likely sat above 0.209/0.210 and next above 0.212/0.213. Below, liquidity sits 0.206 then 0.203. The path of least resistance for the next impulse is toward 0.212–0.216 if 0.208–0.209 holds on retest.

3. Moving averages

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.208 (current > 5D): short-term bullish.
• 10D SMA ≈ 0.211 (current ≈ slightly below): near a tactical flip zone; reclaiming/holding above would encourage a run into 0.214–0.216.
• 20D SMA ≈ 0.226 (current < 20D): medium-term trend still down; expect sellers at/near the 20D on first test.
• 50D SMA > 20D SMA (estimated >0.23): higher-timeframe trend is firmly bearish.
• Read: Short-term momentum turning up within a larger downtrend; treat rallies as tactical, not trend-changing (yet).

4. RSI/Stochastics

• Daily RSI(14): recovering from low 30s into ~40–45 region (approx), consistent with a relief bounce, not overbought. Positive slope and potential bullish divergence vs the 9/25–9/30 price lows.
• 1H RSI: pushed into the 60s on the breakout; likely to cool to mid-50s if we get a pullback to 0.208–0.209, which would be constructive for another leg up.
• Stochastics: 1H stoch high but curling; a shallow reset that holds above 0.208 would set up continuation.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: below zero but histogram contracting (bullish convergence); signal cross possible in coming sessions if follow-through persists.
• 1H MACD: crossed bullish with rising histogram since the 19:00 breakout; momentum supportive for a push toward 0.212–0.216 after a modest dip.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB: Mid-band near 20D SMA (~0.226); lower band likely ~0.200–0.202. Price is below mid-band but above lower band, trending up from the lower rail; room to mean-revert toward the mid-band over several days, but for 24h the upper target is the 23.6–38.2% Fib band (0.216–0.224) rather than the full mid-band.
• 1H BB: Squeeze for most of the session then expansion up; price riding/closing near the upper band into 0.2099. Expect a band tag, minor pullback toward the 20-period basis (~0.206–0.2075), or a shallower pullback to the breakout shelf 0.208–0.209.

7. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun but flattening; Kijun near ~0.228–0.230 (est). Expect first meaningful resistance around Kijun/20D SMA confluence if the bounce extends beyond 24–48h.
• 1H: Bullish TK cross and price above cloud following the 19:00–20:00 surge. Lagging span approaching prior price; cloud ahead looks thin, suggesting it’s passable on momentum, but supply re-enters near 0.212–0.214.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing 0.260 high on 9/13 to 0.20245 low on 9/25)

• Range ≈ 0.05755.
• 23.6%: ~0.2160 (first fib resistance and a good 24h target).
• 38.2%: ~0.2245.
• 50%: ~0.2312.
• 61.8%: ~0.2380.
• Read: First fib at 0.216 aligns with intraday R2 and prior supply. Expect reaction there.

9. Pivots (derived from today’s 1H composite: H≈0.20993, L≈0.20167, C≈0.20993)

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.20717.
• R1 ≈ 0.21267; R2 ≈ 0.21542; S1 ≈ 0.20441; S2 ≈ 0.19892.
• Read: R1–R2 sits squarely in the 0.212–0.215 area; a tag of R2 is consistent with the 23.6% Fib at 0.216.

10. Volume/OBV/VWAP

• Daily volume: Elevated on down days in mid/late September, then tapering; today’s intraday breakout saw a notable pickup 19:00–20:00 UTC.
• OBV (qualitative): Turning up on the 1H with the breakout; daily OBV stabilizing after weeks of bleed.
• VWAP (today): Price now above session VWAP (estimated ~0.205–0.206), confirming buyers have control intraday. Any pullback towards VWAP has high probability to be defended initially.

11. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~0.008–0.012. A 24h move of ±0.8–1.2 cents is common currently.
• Implication: From ~0.208–0.210, reaching ~0.215–0.216 in 24h is feasible without requiring outsized impulse. Downside retest of ~0.203–0.205 also fits the ATR envelope.

12. Wyckoff/Order flow lens

• Wyckoff: Spring/terminal shakeout near 0.201 (9/25), secondary test at 0.2017 (9/30 1H), then a sign of strength above 0.209. That sequence is consistent with early Phase D of accumulation on the intraday scale.
• Order blocks: Demand 0.202–0.205 (multiple rejections), supply 0.214–0.218 (clustered prior highs/VAH). Expect initial mark-up into supply, then response.

13. Candles and micro-patterns

• Daily: Post-selloff, small-bodied candles transitioning into a green expansion day. If today closes near highs (>0.209), it paints a bullish close vs prior two sessions.
• 1H: Bullish expansion candles 19:00–20:00 with higher volume, often followed by a shallow pullback and a second push toward the next pivot (0.212–0.215).

14. Confluence and trade plan

• Confluence to the upside: 1H breakout + MACD/RSI upturn + pivot R1–R2 and Fib 23.6% at 0.212–0.216 + Ichimoku 1H bullish bias + price above intraday VWAP.
• Counterpoints: Daily trend still down (sub-20D/50D); strong supply 0.214–0.218; 10D SMA (~0.211) overhead. This argues against chasing strength; better to buy a pullback toward 0.208–0.209 with tight risk.

Probability-weighted outlook (24h)

• Base case (≈55–60%): Hold 0.208–0.209 on retest → push into 0.212–0.216; fade begins at 0.215–0.216.
• Bear case (≈25–30%): Lose 0.208, accelerate to 0.205; if 0.205 fails, sweep 0.202–0.203 liquidity then bounce back into range.
• Bull extension (≈10–15%): Clean break through 0.216, quick probe to 0.218–0.224; lower probability within 24h absent a broader market tailwind.

Execution guidance (tactical)

• Don’t chase at 0.2099 into first resistance steps; instead stalk a limit buy on the breakout retest.
• Optimal entry: 0.2083 (midway of the 0.208–0.209 shelf), where prior resistance should act as support.
• Profit-taking focus: 0.2160 (Fib 23.6% + pivot confluence). Further upside is possible but diminishing R/R given heavy supply above.
• Invalidation (for risk control, though not asked): A decisive 1H close <0.205 would negate the setup and risk a full sweep of 0.202.

Bottom line

• The setup is a tactical long for a 24h relief rally toward 0.216. Bigger picture remains bearish; treat this as a bounce trade, not a trend reversal, and respect supply at 0.214–0.218.