APT Coiling Beneath 1.75: Ascending Triangle Primed for a Year‑End Pop

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish, upward skew within a 1.69–1.78 range; base case is a push into 1.76–1.78 if 1.75 breaks.
• Structure: Short-term uptrend (higher lows since Dec 18) within a broader downtrend; price coiling just below a well-defined resistance at 1.75 in an ascending-triangle formation.
• Plan: Buy on a shallow pullback near 1.70–1.71 or on breakout through 1.752. Take profit into 1.77–1.78.

Step-by-Step Technical Analysis (multi-timeframe, multi-method)

1. Price Action and Market Structure

• HTF context (Daily): From Oct highs (~5.5) a persistent downtrend carried through mid-Dec. Capitulation low printed on Dec 18 (low ~1.42). Since then, daily closes show higher lows: 1.576 (Dec 21), 1.612 (Dec 23), 1.593 (Dec 25), 1.676 (Dec 29), 1.709 current — indicative of early accumulation/repair.
• LTF context (intraday 1h): Range-bound session between 1.67–1.75, with repeated tests of 1.75 and rising troughs (1.67 → 1.70–1.71 → 1.72). This is a textbook ascending triangle under a flat lid at 1.75, typically resolving higher as offers thin.
• Liquidity and failed break: Spike to 1.75 at 15:00 rejected, but sellers didn’t push back below 1.70; subsequent consolidation around 1.71–1.72 shows absorption rather than aggressive reversal.
• Conclusion: Short-term market structure bullish (higher lows, equal/flat highs), with a clear inflection at 1.75.

2. Moving Averages and Trend Filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 1.63 (approx). Price at 1.709 > 20SMA: short-term uptrend signal.
• 50-day SMA (approx, given earlier higher prices) still above spot: medium-term trend remains down. This is a classic early-trend-reversal configuration: price reclaims 20SMA first, then works toward 50SMA.
• Implication: Tactical longs favored while acknowledging larger downtrend overhead; expect resistance clusters to be sold into, but momentum can carry to next resistance band.

3. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily (est.): mid-50s to high-50s after the base; not overbought. This permits further upside before momentum exhaustion.
• Stoch RSI (intraday): cycling near mid-high zone, consistent with a coiling market. A breakout push could lift StochRSI to extreme quickly, supporting a swift pop into resistance.
• MACD (12/26 Daily): Histogram likely positive and rising since late Dec; signal line crossover bullish. On 1h, MACD near zero with positive skew; small bullish momentum rebuild.
• Implication: Momentum supports a continuation attempt higher; not stretched.

4. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) estimated ~0.08–0.10. With spot at ~1.71, a 1-ATR topside move projects 1.79–1.81; downside 1.61–1.63. This sets realistic bounds for the next 24 hours.
• Intraday realized range today ~0.08 (1.67–1.75), matching ATR guidance; a breakout extension toward 1.77–1.79 is plausible inside one ATR.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band ~20SMA ≈ 1.63. Upper band estimated ~1.81; lower ~1.45–1.46. Price sits below the upper band with room to run; no immediate overbought band tag.
• Implication: There is scope to expand upward without band resistance until ~1.80.

6. Fibonacci Mapping (swing Dec 18 low → Dec 27 high)

• Low: ~1.451; High: ~1.754; Range: ~0.303.
• Key retracement supports from the low: 61.8% ~1.638; 78.6% ~1.690. Price has been oscillating above the 78.6% level and defending 1.69–1.70, reinforcing it as near-term support.
• Extension: Clearance of 1.754 opens a 1.618 extension from the small 1h coil toward ~1.79–1.80 (in line with ATR and BB upper proximity).

7. Ichimoku (conceptual, daily/1h)

• Daily: Price reclaimed conversion baseline area after mid-Dec low; cloud likely thin/transitioning ahead as the trend shifts. Thin cloud regimes are breakable and favor continuation when price is above conversion/base lines.
• 1h: Price oscillating near/above a thin cloud, with higher lows. Bullish if price maintains above the base line on dips (1.70–1.71), with a bullish TK cross likely already present.

8. Volume, VWAP, and Pivots

• Volume profile (qualitative): Heaviest prints on the 1.75 test (15:00) and around the 1.70–1.72 basin — suggests both supply at the lid and steady demand absorbing pullbacks. Multiple tests of supply often weaken it.
• Intraday VWAP (approx.): ~1.72. Current ~1.709 sits slightly below VWAP; reversion toward/above VWAP is typical if the uptrend remains intact, offering a tactical long.
• Classic Daily Pivots (from Dec 29): P ≈ 1.717; R1 ≈ 1.760; S1 ≈ 1.632. Spot below P but above S1 by a wide margin; R1 aligns with the 1.75–1.76 breakout zone. Confluence strengthens the 1.76–1.78 target zone on a successful break.

9. Candlestick/Pattern Diagnostics

• Ascending Triangle on 1h: Flat resistance ~1.75 with rising swing lows; statistically has a bullish edge, particularly when formed near the top of a recovery swing from capitulation.
• No distributional topping signs (e.g., lower highs, heavy supply pushes) post-rejection; instead, constructive consolidation.

10. Wyckoff/Market Profile Lens

• Post-capitulation Accumulation Phase B/C behavior: Higher lows and repeated topside probes indicate demand overwhelming supply near the top of the range; a Sign of Strength (SoS) often follows via range expansion through the lid.
• Expect a minor upthrust/stop-run above 1.75; follow-through into 1.76–1.78 before either consolidating or mean-reverting.

11. Elliott Wave Sketch (tactical)

• From Dec 18 low, wave 1 to ~1.64, wave 2 to ~1.576, wave 3 to ~1.753, wave 4 to ~1.676, wave 5 potentially commencing; measured objective modestly above wave 3 high → 1.77–1.80.

12. Mean-Reversion vs. Breakout Probabilities

• Mean-reversion case: Short at 1.75 back to 1.70–1.71 has worked intraday; however, the pattern of higher lows raises the risk of shorting the lid now.
• Breakout case: Triangular compression plus improving momentum suggests slightly higher probability of topside resolution in the next 24h.
• Probabilistic take: ~60% chance of topside test/partial break into 1.76–1.78, ~30% chance of continued range 1.69–1.75 without break, ~10% chance of downside slip toward 1.64 if 1.69 fails.

13. Risk and Timing Considerations

• Year-end liquidity is patchy; breakouts can be abrupt and short-lived. Optimal execution: either a) Buy pullbacks into 1.70–1.71 with tight risk below 1.69; or b) Buy stop on break ≥1.752 to ride momentum into 1.77–1.78.
• Without leverage assumptions, the pullback entry offers better R:R if filled; breakout entry has higher fill probability if the train leaves early.

Next 24h Price Path Projection

• Base path: Early test of 1.75–1.76; brief consolidation; extension to 1.77–1.78; subsequent settle 1.73–1.76.
• Downside risk trigger: Loss of 1.69 intraday would negate the coil and invite a move toward 1.65–1.64 (SMA20 band/old pivot), but probability is lower.

Bottom Line

• The technical mosaic (ascending triangle under resistance, higher lows, bullish MACD/RSI posture, ATR headroom, pivot confluence) favors a Buy-the-dip or Buy-the-break approach with a 1.77–1.78 take-profit window within 24 hours.