AVAX Breakdown: Sell the Retest Into 12.55–12.70 for a Drive Toward 11.80

Executive summary

• AVAX trades at 12.345 after a high-volume intraday breakdown, sitting at or just under the 20D lower Bollinger band. Multi-timeframe trend remains bearish with fresh lower lows on the daily and hourly structures. Expect a weak bounce or retest into 12.55–12.70 followed by continuation lower toward 12.00–11.80 over the next 24 hours unless bulls reclaim 12.90–13.00.

Multi-timeframe market structure

1. Higher timeframe (Daily)

• Structure: Clear series of lower highs since Dec 9 (14.605) and now a fresh lower low today at 12.276, breaking the prior pivotal shelf near 12.58–12.72 (Nov 21 and Dec 1 reference lows). This confirms a continuation of the post-Dec 9 downswing.
• Key levels: • Resistance: 12.78 (Dec 1 close), 13.11 (Dec 12 close), 13.43 (Dec 11 close), 14.14 (Dec 10), 14.61 (Dec 9). • Supports: 12.58/12.72 (broken), 12.28 (today’s low), psychological 12.00, then 11.80–11.50 (measured move/volume shelf).
• Candle context: A decisive red expansion day, with today’s range pushing through and closing under the prior support shelf, switching that zone into resistance.

2. Lower timeframe (1H from Dec 14 22:00 to Dec 15 21:56)

• Price action: Grind higher into 13.30 by 10:00 UTC, then sharp breakdown at 14:00–15:00 from 13.02 to 12.47 on very high volume (15:00 hour ~60.7M), followed by sideways-to-weak drift consolidation 12.28–12.45. That’s classic bear-flag digestion after a momentum flush.
• Intraday structure: Lower highs and lower lows persist. A retest of breakdown supply near 12.55–12.70 is probable before continuation, unless bulls can drive a stronger reclaim beyond 12.90–13.00.

Trend and moving averages

• 5D SMA ≈ 13.03; 10D SMA ≈ 13.44; 20D SMA ≈ 13.81. Price (12.35) trades below all three, reinforcing bearish trend alignment and momentum.
• 50D/200D (implied): Given the heavy selloff since October and persistent lower pricing, AVAX is well below the 50D and far below the 200D, confirming a primary downtrend.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 45–48: neutral-to-weak, not deeply oversold, giving bears room to continue. The lack of an oversold extreme on daily while price is breaking support favors continuation over an immediate V-shape reversal.
• 1H RSI: Intraday reached oversold on the breakdown candle, then rebounded into the 30s–40s range during the flag. Typical of bear market bounces that reset short-term oversold without flipping the trend.
• Stochastics (1H): Likely curling up from oversold, but still below midline. In a downtrend this often caps at 50–60 before rolling back down.

MACD

• Daily: MACD below signal with expanding negative histogram following the Dec 9 top. Momentum is accelerating to the downside on the higher timeframe.
• 1H: Histogram contraction after the flush suggests a pause, not a trend reversal. A slight positive divergence could support a retest bounce, but signal remains below zero, consistent with sell-the-rally conditions.

Volatility and range analysis

• ATR(14D) rough estimate ≈ 0.9. Today’s expansion push aligns with a downside volatility expansion. With price now consolidating under broken support, expect another ATR-sized move within 24 hours. A move from 12.4 toward 11.8–12.0 is well within typical range for a continuation day.

Bands and channels

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 13.81; lower ≈ 12.41. Price is hugging/breaching the lower band, which often precedes a short-term reversion bounce; however, in strong downtrends, riding the lower band can persist for multiple sessions. Mean reversion alone is not sufficient to call a trend reversal given the breakdown confirmation.
• Keltner Channels: Price outside or at the lower KC envelope indicates a trend-impulse state rather than a chop regime. That supports sell-the-rip setups over attempting knife-catching longs.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price well below Tenkan and Kijun, and far below a bearish cloud. No reversal signals; cloud acts as overhead supply.
• 1H: Price below a downward-sloping cloud; Kijun estimated near 12.6–12.7. A retest into Kijun or lower cloud boundary is a common short entry zone in downtrends.

Volume and order flow read

• The 15:00 UTC candle shows a capitulation-like spike. Subsequent candles have lower volume with small bodies: classic bear-flag characteristics. If buyers were in control, a stronger, faster reclaim of 12.60–12.80 would be expected. Instead, supply is capping price beneath 12.45–12.50.
• Visible range volume profile (Nov 20–present, conceptual): High-volume nodes around 13.3–13.6 and 14.1–14.6. The 12.5–12.8 corridor looks like a low-volume pocket that price sliced through quickly today. Next notable potential demand shelf: 12.0–11.8.

Pattern work

• Descending triangle on the daily: Flat-ish base 12.58–12.72 with descending swing highs into it. Breakdown triggered today with volume. Measured move from the triangle height (≈ 13.64 peak to 12.58 base ≈ 1.06) targets ≈ 11.5 after a retest.
• 1H bear flag: Post-flush consolidation inclined slightly upward or flat. If the flag breaks lower, the next leg projects toward 12.00–11.80 near-term.

Fibonacci mapping

• Last impulse leg reference: From Dec 14 swing high 13.386 to Dec 15 low 12.276, retracement levels sit at: 23.6% ≈ 12.54, 38.2% ≈ 12.71, 50% ≈ 12.83, 61.8% ≈ 12.96. This neatly aligns with the prior broken shelf and Ichimoku Kijun estimates. The 12.54–12.96 pocket is prime for a supply retest; the 12.54–12.70 subzone is optimal for risk-defined shorts.

Relative value and mean reversion context

• While a touch below the lower Bollinger band can sometimes mean revert, the broader setup is a breakdown through multi-week support with momentum confirmation. Mean reversion is more attractive once price demonstrates absorption/reclaim above 12.90–13.00. Until then, bounces are likely to be sold.

Risk management and invalidation

• Using ATR ≈ 0.9, a tactical short entered on a 12.55 retest would typically use a stop 0.6–1.0 above the entry, e.g., 13.15–13.55. Structural invalidation for the 24h short thesis lies above 12.96–13.11 (61.8% retrace and daily resistance), and especially above 13.30–13.45 where the lower-timeframe trend would begin to transition.

Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case, 60%: Retest bounce tags 12.55–12.70, fails below 12.90, then continuation to 12.00–11.80 with intraday liquidity sweeps of 12.28.
• Direct continuation, 25%: No meaningful bounce; price grinds down through 12.28 toward 12.05–11.90.
• Bear invalidation, 15%: Strong reclaim above 12.96–13.00, squeeze into 13.30–13.45, delaying downside for a session. This would weaken short entries until a new setup forms.

Confluence checklist for a short bias

• Fresh daily lower low and lower high sequence intact.
• Breakdown of multi-week base (12.58–12.72) with volume.
• Price below 5/10/20 SMAs and below 1H/4H/1D clouds.
• MACD momentum negative and expanding on daily; RSI not yet oversold on daily.
• Retest pocket aligns with Fib 23.6–38.2% and Ichimoku Kijun, and sits directly at the former support-turned-resistance band.
• 20D lower Bollinger touch suggests bounce risk but not reversal, favoring sell-on-retest rather than chasing at the lows.

Tactical plan

• Bias: Sell the bounce into 12.55 area with room to add near 12.70 if offered.
• Target: 11.80 within 24 hours on continuation, acknowledging 12.00 as an interim sticky level where partials could be considered.
• Invalidation: A decisive reclaim and hold above 12.96–13.11 would neutralize the immediate short.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains down. A controlled retest into 12.55–12.70 provides a favorable short entry with a clear invalidation zone and a measured-move target in the 11.8s.

Note: This is market analysis, not financial advice. Use appropriate position sizing and risk controls, especially in high-volatility assets like AVAX.