AVAX coiling at 24: bullish momentum building for a 24.9–25.1 breakout test in the next 24 hours

AVAX multi-timeframe technical playbook (next 24h)

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher-timeframe context (Daily):

  • June capitulation into mid-June low ~15.71, then steady recovery through July, impulse to 26.69 on Aug 23, followed by a corrective pullback to 22.70 on Sep 1. Presently reclaiming the 24 handle (24.11 last).
  • Structure since Aug 19–23: impulsive leg up (22.33 → 26.69), then a deep retrace with a likely higher-basis formation. The Sep 1 session printed a long lower wick (22.70 → 23.18 close), often a capitulation/reversal signature.
  • Current regime looks like a corrective-to-impulsive transition; price is compressing around the 24 area, beneath a near-term resistance band 24.40–24.95.

• Intermediate support/resistance map:

  • Supports: 23.15–23.20 (Sep 1 close/cluster), 23.40–23.45 (value area and multiple daily touches), 22.70 (swing low), 22.30–22.35 (Aug 19 pivot).
  • Resistances: 24.20–24.30 (intraday supply and 0.382 Fib from 26.69→22.70), 24.50–24.95 (prior supply; daily R2 pivot bands), 25.15–25.20 (0.618 Fib), 25.50–25.60 (historical pivot), 26.20–26.70 (supply apex).

• Intraday (hourly) flow (Sep 2):

  • Series of higher lows from 23.62 → 23.77 → 23.90 → 24.11 with intraday highs pressing 24.17–24.27: an ascending channel within a coil beneath resistance. Very typical pre-break setup.
  • The last hours show consistent bids on dips to 23.84–23.95, suggesting a developing intraday demand shelf.

2. Volume, liquidity, and participation

• Volume profile (Aug 13 → present):
  • High-volume node/POC around 24.0–24.2. Market is trading at POC; acceptance here often precedes expansion.
  • Heavy participation on the Aug 22–23 advance and Aug 25 liquidation shows the 25–26.5 band as a distribution zone; a revisitation requires momentum but is plausible if 24.90s clear.
• OBV (qualitative):
  • After the Sep 1 washout, net uptick consistent with accumulation on dips. Not a blow-off; looks constructive.
• Liquidity cues:
  • Resting liquidity likely above 24.25–24.30 (intraday swing high cluster) and larger pools near 24.90–25.00. Below, stops rest under 23.60 and especially 23.40.

3. Trend and moving averages

• Daily SMAs/EMAs (approximate):
  • SMA20 ≈ 24.1; price now at/just above the midline.
  • SMA50 ≈ 22.8–23.0; price is above, confirming medium-term uptrend intact.
  • EMA12 > EMA26 is close to re-expansion after a brief contraction on pullback; momentum likely turning up.
• Read: Trading back above the 20-day baseline after a higher-timeframe uptrend often precedes a push toward the upper Bollinger band.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (Daily): ~50–55 region; bounced from mid-40s on Sep 1 low, showing a bullish momentum reset. A move through 55–60 typically accompanies breakouts over nearby resistance.
• RSI (Hourly): trending 55–60; no bearish divergence at the most recent highs; momentum supports continuation.
• Stochastics (4H/1H): curled up from mid-zones; no overbought extremes yet, leaving room to run into 24.8–25.1.

5. Volatility and range

• ATR(14D) estimate ≈ 1.3–1.6. With current price ~24.1, a ±1.3 typical range implies reachable bands: 22.8–25.4 in a single session on outsized moves; base case expansion to ~24.9–25.1 is well within norms.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): midline ~24.1; upper band ~25.6; lower ~22.6. Price is pivoting on the mid-band; a close above ~24.3 usually leads to a tag of the upper band over 24–48h.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ 24.0–24.1; Kijun (26) ≈ 24.3–24.4. Price hovering around Tenkan and beneath Kijun: a Kijun reclaim at ~24.4 is the trigger to open skies toward 24.9–25.2.
• Cloud (Senkou A around ~24.0, Senkou B ~23.6): price is at/just above the cloud edge—constructive. Chikou span likely above historical price, endorsing a bullish bias if 24.3–24.4 clears.

7. MACD

• Daily MACD histogram shifted from negative toward zero; a bullish cross is likely if price sustains >24.3. Bullish momentum inflection favors an upside drift within 24 hours.

8. Fibonacci confluence

• From 26.69 (Aug 23 high) to 22.70 (Sep 1 low):
  • 0.382 = 24.23 (near intraday lid today)
  • 0.5 = 24.695
  • 0.618 = 25.16
  • This aligns perfectly with the observed resistance stacking at 24.2–24.3 and target zones 24.7–25.2.

9. Classical pivots (previous session H/L/C ~24.29/22.70/23.18)

• Pivot P ≈ 23.39
• R1 ≈ 24.08 (reclaimed intraday)
• R2 ≈ 24.98 (maps to our profit target)
• S1 ≈ 22.49 (far below—underscores risk if breakdown occurs)

10. Pattern work

• Potential inverted Head & Shoulders forming on intraday-to-daily crossover:
  • Left shoulder ~23.35 (Aug 25), Head ~22.70 (Sep 1), Right shoulder crafting ~23.6–23.9 (Sep 2), Neckline ~24.4–24.5.
  • Break of 24.5 projects measured move of ~1.7–2.0, pointing into 26 area over multiple sessions; 24-hour objective conservatively 24.9–25.1 on initial breakout and liquidity sweep.
• Candlesticks: Sep 1 hammer/long lower wick; subsequent higher closes indicate follow-through buying interest.

11. ADX/Trend strength

• ADX (Daily) estimated low-20s. Trend re-strengthening after consolidation; not overextended, which is favorable for a push to next resistance.

12. VWAP and mean reversion

• Session VWAP (today) roughly around 24.00. Price holding above/around VWAP for multiple hours indicates dip demand near 23.9–24.0; buying pullbacks toward VWAP shows best R:R.
• 20-day z-score near 0: neutral to slightly positive; room to expand without immediate overbought stress.

13. Elliott wave (light touch)

• After an ABC corrective leg culminating at 22.70, the advance from ~23.2 to ~24.2 looks like wave 1 of a new impulsive sequence; a shallow wave 2 dip to ~23.9, then wave 3 expansion toward 24.9–25.2 aligns with the oscillators and volume posture.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (~60–65%): Grind-up and/or breakout.
  • Expected path: Early-session fade to 23.9–24.0 (VWAP/shoulder support) → impulsive test of 24.25–24.30 (0.382 Fib) → breakout attempts toward 24.70–24.98. First target 24.95–25.00; partial fills likely below 25 due to supply and round-number effect.
• Bull case (~20–25%): Clean neckline break early.
  • Minimal pullback; swift sweep through 24.30 → 24.50 → 25.10; follow through could tag 25.3–25.5 if momentum surges.
• Bear case (~15–20%): Failed breakout, liquidity run lower.
  • Rejection at 24.25–24.30, push back to 23.60–23.40. Only on a daily close below 23.40 does the bias flip tactically bearish toward 22.9–22.7.

15. Risk management frame (for context)

• Optimal dip-buy zone: 23.85–23.95 (confluence of intraday demand, VWAP, and ascending channel support).
• Invalidation (tactical): sustained trade <23.55–23.60 (loss of intraday higher lows and beneath value shelf).
• Reward band: 24.90–25.10 (R2, 0.5–0.618 Fib cluster, liquidity magnet just below the round 25 handle).
• R:R from 23.94 entry to 24.98 target with a notional stop 23.55 ≈ 2.8:1.

16. Synthesis and call

• Multiple tools converge bullishly: reclaim of SMA20/Bollinger mid, RSI recovery, MACD turning, intraday ascending structure, VWAP support, Fibonacci/pivot confluence pointing to 24.9–25.1. While 24.3–24.5 is a known supply shelf, the balance of probabilities favors a test and partial breach within 24 hours. The optimal tactic is buy-the-dip near 23.9–24.0 with a target into 24.95–25.00.

Prediction (24h): Upside drift with a breakout attempt; high-likelihood tag of 24.9–25.0. Contingency if early rejection: defend 23.6–23.4; only below 23.4 would a short bias be considered.

Note: This is a trading view, not investment advice. Volatility can exceed typical ATR during crypto news events; adjust sizing accordingly.