BCH coiling under resistance: buy the dip for a run at R2 ($573) within 24 hours

Market snapshot (now)

• Instrument: Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Current price: $554.40
• Regime: Recovery uptrend from the Oct 17–18 capitulation lows, consolidating below a dense resistance shelf at 559–566 and the late-Oct swing highs (570–574). Intraday structure is a pullback/flag after a morning push.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure Daily (swing context)

• Structure: Higher lows since Oct 18 (468.37 close) and higher highs into Oct 26–29 (up to 566+), followed by a two-day pullback to Oct 31 close at 536.19, and a strong rebound today toward mid-550s. Net: constructive, with a base between 536–545 and supply 559–574.
• Moving averages: • 20-day SMA (computed from the last 20 daily closes) ≈ 514.94. Price ($554.40) > 20SMA: short-term bullish tilt. • 50-day SMA (Sep 12–Oct 31, 50 sessions) ≈ 552.90. Price just above 50SMA, indicating an early-stage trend inflection back to neutral-bullish after October’s drawdown. • 100-day SMA (approx; limited lookback) ≈ mid-560s to high-560s; price is marginally below/near this longer average, consistent with “repair” phase but not fully re-accelerated yet.
• Market structure map: • Support: 548–552 (intraday shelf and prior acceptance), 541–544 (hourly base/prev close area), 536 (Oct 31 settlement and intraday pivot), deeper 522–525 and 500–505 (macro). • Resistance: 559–563 (today’s R1 and supply shelf), 566–574 (late-Oct highs; heavy supply), 583–590 (band), 600+.

4-hour / 1-hour (execution context)

• Hourly sequence (today): Grind up from 536 to a spike high 559.80 around 10:00, then a controlled pullback/flag to 552–554 on declining volumes—typical bull flag behavior.
• VWAP/mean reversion: Price oscillating near day-session VWAP zone in the mid-550s, indicating no blow-off; dips toward 552–553 are getting absorbed.
• Micro-structure: Tight consolidation 553–557 after the impulse, which often precedes a secondary push if resistance yields.

2. Momentum and oscillator complex Daily RSI(14) (approx)

• Mix of strong up days from Oct 19–26, followed by a 3-session fade and today’s rebound. Estimated RSI mid-50s to high-50s, consistent with positive but not overbought momentum; room to run toward 60–65 if 563–574 breaks. Hourly RSI
• Reached high-60s/low-70s on the morning thrust; cooled to low/mid-50s during the flag—healthy reset before potential continuation. MACD
• Daily: Post-crash recovery has nudged the 12/26 EMA spread toward flat-to-slightly positive; histogram likely stabilizing after the Oct 31 dip. A daily bullish cross is plausible if price holds >550–555 into tomorrow.
• Hourly: Positive MACD with a mild histogram contraction during consolidation—typically constructive for another attempt higher if resistance cracks. Stochastic
• Intraday: Resetting from overbought into neutral while price holds mid-550s—bullish divergence behavior.

3. Volatility and bands ATR(14) (daily, approximated from the last 14 ranges)

• ≈ $26.2. This frames expected 24h drift potential and helps size stops/targets. A +1x ATR from here targets ~580; -1x ATR ~528. Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ; approximated)
• Mid-band ≈ 20SMA = $514.9; given recent dispersion, 2σ ≈ $30–35. Estimated upper band near $580–585 and lower near $480–485. Price mid-to-upper band but with headroom to test $573–585 before statistically stretched.

4. Price levels via classical pivots (using Oct 31 H/L/C: 563.21 / 535.11 / 536.19)

• Pivot P ≈ (563.21 + 535.11 + 536.19) / 3 = $544.84
• R1 ≈ 2P − Low = 2×544.84 − 535.11 = $554.57 (today’s key lid; we’re hovering here)
• R2 ≈ P + (High − Low) = 544.84 + 28.10 = $572.94
• R3 ≈ High + 2×(P − Low) = 563.21 + 2×9.73 ≈ $582.68 Interpretation: Price is testing R1; a sustained hourly close > R1 opens R2 ($572.9) within the 24h window; R3 aligns with the upper BB estimate and prior supply band.

5. Fibonacci confluences Daily swing: Oct 17 low to Oct 30 high (454.59 → 574.06; range = 119.47)

• 23.6% = 574.06 − 0.236×119.47 ≈ $545.87 (precisely where bids are stepping in—key support)
• 38.2% ≈ $528.42 (near late-Oct pullbacks)
• 50% ≈ $514.32 (just above 20SMA)
• 61.8% ≈ $500.22 (confluent with the psychological $500 area) Takeaway: Today’s stabilization above 545.9 (23.6%) bolsters the bull case; losing 541–545 would negate the clean shallow-retrace scenario. Short-term impulse (Nov 1): 536.14 → 559.80; current pullback to 552–554
• A measured move/AB=CD from this pullback projects into 570–575, aligning with R2 and late-Oct highs—high confluence zone for profit-taking.

6. Volume and participation

• Volume expansion on the Oct 26 breakout and sustained participation into Oct 28–29 indicates genuine demand on advances.
• Today’s intraday: Volume peaked on the push to 559–560, then tapered during the flag—classic continuation signature if buyers re-engage above 557–560.
• Visible range node (qualitative): Acceptance bands approx 543–548 and 555–560. The upper node is attempting to flip from supply to demand.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price probing above a flat Kijun region (~540s) after reclaiming the Tenkan; a bullish Tenkan> Kijun crossover and a forward-tilting cloud would confirm if we settle above 560s in coming sessions.
• 4h: Price either inside or marginally above the cloud with a positive tilt; pullbacks to the Kijun (~551–553) bought today.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag on the 1h after a sharp impulse; measured target ≈ flagpole (559.8 − 536.1 ≈ $23.7) added to breakout zone (~556–557) → $579–581 potential extension. First resistance appears earlier (R2: 572.9), so partials there are prudent.
• Broad range box: 536–574. We’re mid-to-upper box; break and hold above 563–566 shifts the balance to an upper-box walk toward 572–574.

9. Probabilistic 24-hour pathing

• Base case (55%): Upward drift with a break/hold above 559–563, tag R2 at $572–573; intraday pullbacks shallow to 551–553. Session close in 564–572 zone.
• Alt scenario (30%): Range trade between 548–560; multiple rejections at 560 keep price coiling; tomorrow sets the decisive break.
• Bear risk (15%): Loss of 548 then 544–541 on increasing volume; acceleration to 532–536 (38.2% fib zone) before dip-buyers return.

10. Risk management, triggers, and invalidation

• Long trigger: Either buy-the-dip into 552–553 (VWAP/MA cluster) or momentum add on an hourly close > 563.
• Invalidation: Hourly close below 541–544 cluster negates the shallow-retrace bull structure and warns of a deeper move toward 528–532.
• Sizing: With ATR ~26, a tactical stop ~12–14 below entry balances noise vs. capital at risk.

Synthesis and decision

• Evidence stack: Price > 20SMA and ≈ 50SMA (positive tilt), intraday bull flag, RSI with headroom, strong pivot confluence (R1 just above, R2 at 572.9), Fibonacci 23.6% holding at ~545.9, and rising participation on advances. Sellers still present at 559–563, but the more times this shelf is tested, the higher the breakout odds.
• Conclusion: Favor buying a controlled pullback in the 552–553 zone aiming for a push into R2 (~573). Risk is defined below 541–544.

Trade plan (next 24h)

• Position: Long BCH.
• Entry (limit): $552.50 (buy-the-dip into support/MA/VWAP cluster). Acceptable range: 551.5–553.0.
• Take profit (primary): $572.90 (R2 pivot / pre-break supply). Stretch target if momentum surges: $579–582 (R3/flag measured move).
• Reference stop (not required to place in output, but recommended): $541.80 (below support cluster). Risk ~ $10.7 for ~ $20.4 reward → R:R ≈ 1:1.9; improves to >2:1 on any extension beyond R2.

What to watch for confirmation

• Hourly close above 563 with rising volume (bullish break).
• Pullback holds 551–553 with flattening/curling up of 5–15m EMAs.
• MACD histogram re-expansion on 1h and RSI holding >50 on dips.

Bottom line: Buy the dip; target the R2 magnet at ~$573 within 24 hours. If 548 fails intraday, stand aside and reassess near 544/541 for a cleaner risk setup.