DEXE poised for a neckline retest and push: buy the dip for a 7.30–7.35 test within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Instrument: DeXe (DEXE)
• Timestamp: 2025-11-01 01:27 UTC
• Current price: 7.0458
• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a developing range uptrend; expecting a buyable dip toward 6.90–6.97 followed by a retest/break of 7.08 and extension toward 7.20–7.35.
• Plan: Buy the dip (preferred) at 6.93–6.95 or momentum add on breakout >7.09. Target 7.30–7.35 in 24h with risk anchored to 6.74–6.82 zone.

Step-by-step multi-lens analysis

1. Market structure (daily and 4h/1h)

• Big picture (Aug–Oct): Downtrend from Aug highs ~8.7 toward early Sep ~6.9, explosive mid-Sep rally to 12–13 range, then a capitulative flush on Oct 10 (intraday anomaly to 0.439, closing 5.62) and recovery into a two-week range between ~6.30 and ~7.30.
• Recent micro structure (late Oct to now): • Higher lows: 10/30 low 6.291 → 10/31 pullback low 6.744 → 11/01 intraday floater ~6.96; consistent with a short-term uptrend within a broader range. • Lower-timeframe resistance cluster: 7.07–7.15 (hourly supply and classic pivot R3 zone), followed by 7.28–7.35 (late-Aug swing highs), then 7.55–7.60 (confluence with fib extension and prior August tops). • Support: 6.88–6.90 (pivot R2 area now support), then 6.82/6.74 (hourly demand), then 6.62–6.66 (20D MA and prior balance) and 6.29 (cycle low).
• Pattern recognition: Inverse head-and-shoulders base visible across late Oct: • Head near 6.20–6.30 (10/30) • Neckline ~6.88–6.90, broken 10/31 • Measured move: Neckline (6.90) minus head (6.20) ≈ 0.70 → target ≈ 7.60 (swing objective; near-term 24h likely partial progress).
• Hourly bull flag: Pole 6.75 → 7.08; consolidation 7.00–7.08; a clean break over 7.08 projects ~7.40 (pole height ≈0.33 added to breakout).

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): 55–60; shifted from neutral to mildly bullish as gains outpaced losses post-6.29 low. No overbought signal; room to run toward 7.2–7.5 before reaching 65–70.
• Stoch RSI / hourly RSI: Resetting in mid-high range after earlier thrust; supports a continuation if price holds 7.00 and reclaims 7.08.
• MACD daily: Histogram inflecting higher; likely 12/26 EMA cross-up or imminent. Momentum turning positive after multi-day basing; favors upside follow-through.
• ROC(10) daily: Back above zero after 10/30 surge; corroborates the improving impulse.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 6.61 (est.): Price at 7.05 sits ~+6.6% above; short-term trend is up.
• 50D SMA (est.) still elevated (8+ due to September rally): Price remains below; medium-term trend remains down/neutral. Translation: short-term bullish rally within a larger corrective structure.
• EMA cluster (8/13/21 on 4h/1h): Price riding above fast EMAs intraday; pullbacks to 6.90–6.97 likely find dip buyers.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.35–0.45. Implies typical 24h range of ~±0.40 around spot. From 7.05, a normal move spans roughly 6.65–7.45 absent new catalysts.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid ~6.61, upper ~7.20 (est.). Price is in the upper half but not band-riding yet; room to tag the upper band (~7.2) and possibly stretch to 7.3 if momentum accelerates.
• Z-score vs 20D MA ≈ +1.3–1.5; constructive but not stretched.

5. Volume, liquidity and OBV

• Post-10/30 rally featured improved volumes on upswings; OBV likely ticking higher. The 10/31–11/01 hourly shows accumulation below 7.08. The low-volume pocket from ~6.95 to ~7.15 suggests a swift move if 7.08 clears, into the 7.28–7.35 high-volume node where supply returns.
• Prior anomaly 10/10 (low 0.439) reads as a transient liquidity event/print; recent orderbook behavior appears normalized around 6.3–7.2.

6. Pivots and levels

• Classic pivots from 10/30 (H 6.685, L 6.199, C 6.291): • P ≈ 6.392; R1 ≈ 6.585; R2 ≈ 6.878; R3 ≈ 7.071. Spot ~7.05 sits just under R3; initial resistance expected into 7.07–7.09.
• Fibonacci (swing 6.291 → 7.087): • Pullback supports: 61.8% ≈ 6.783; 38.2% ≈ 6.594. Market defended above 0.618 on 10/31’s dip (bullish). • Extensions on breakout: 1.272 ≈ 7.303; 1.618 ≈ 7.579; 2.0 ≈ 7.883. Near-term 1.272 aligns with the 7.28–7.35 supply zone.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan (≈6.65–6.75) and near/below Kijun (~7.1–7.2). Cloud still overhead from prior drawdown. Interpretation: Short-term upside bias with a Kijun test likely; cloud resistance sits higher (7.3–7.6). A daily close >7.20 would strengthen the bullish case.

8. ADX/DMI (daily, qualitative)

• ADX moderate/low (range conditions recently), +DI crossing up over -DI with rising slope. Trend strength building but not dominant. Supports buying pullbacks rather than chasing, unless a clean breakout.

9. Wyckoff lens

• Structure since 10/24 resembles an accumulation range with a spring at 6.20–6.30 (10/30), then a sign of strength to 7.08 (10/31–11/01). Current action is a potential last point of support (LPS) near 6.95–7.00. Expected path: LPS → markup to test 7.20–7.35 supply.

10. Elliott wave (tactical)

• From 6.29, impulsive Wave (1) to 7.08, shallow Wave (2) flag, setting up Wave (3) toward 7.30–7.40. Invalidation for this micro-count on a decisive loss of 6.82/6.74.

11. Probabilistic 24h path

• Base case (≈55–60%): Brief dip to 6.90–6.97, reclaim 7.00, breakout over 7.08 → 7.18–7.32. If momentum continues, spike toward 7.35.
• Bearish alt (≈30–35%): Failure at 7.07–7.09, drift to 6.88; deeper fade possible to 6.82/6.74 if risk-off hits.
• Tail risk (≈10%): Sharp move >7.40 into 7.55–7.60 (IHS measured target partially realized) if volume surges; or sudden liquidity sweep to ~6.66 before reversing.

12. Confluence and decision logic

• Bullish factors: Higher lows; inverse H&S with confirmed neckline break; MACD turn; price >20D SMA; hourly bull flag; OBV uptick; fib extension targets aligning with historical supply; R3 just above acting as a breakout trigger.
• Headwinds: Overhead resistance stack 7.07–7.35; price below 50D SMA; Bollinger upper band near 7.2; daily pivot R3 at 7.07 may cause initial rejection.
• Net: Favor a buy-the-dip or breakout-continuation approach. Risk-reward is favorable buying 6.93–6.95 with a target 7.30–7.35 within ATR.

Execution plan

• Entry: Preferred limit buy 6.94 (in the 6.93–6.95 demand pocket near prior R2-turned-support). Alternative add: stop-market on break 7.09 for momentum.
• Target: 7.32 (primary), with extension potential 7.35–7.40 if momentum/volume expands.
• Invalidation context (not an order, for risk framing): A firm hourly close below 6.82 weakens the setup; below 6.74 invalidates the short-term trend of higher lows.

Bottom line

• Expectation: Slight dip, then a push toward 7.20–7.35 in the next 24 hours. Buy the dip is optimal; breakout add is acceptable.
• Decision: Buy (Long). Open near 6.94; close near 7.32 within 24h, reassess on approach to 7.28–7.35 supply.