Tradzar
Dogecoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
DOGE Relief Rally Fades at Fib Resistance: Bearish Retest Setup Into $0.089–$0.090
Market snapshot (DOGE)
- Current price: $0.09154
- Primary timeframe provided: Daily candles from 2025-11-15 → 2026-02-12 + intraday hourly for the last ~24h.
- Regime: Medium-term downtrend (Nov/Jan highs → Feb lows), with a short-term relief bounce that is stalling.
1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure (Dow Theory / Market structure)
Daily structure
- From mid-Nov (~$0.16) DOGE has made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, culminating in a sharp capitulation move into early Feb.
- Key swing points:
- Prior distribution zone: $0.15–$0.16 (Nov–early Jan supply)
- Breakdown continuation: $0.13 → $0.12 → $0.10 (Jan)
- Capitulation/flush: 2026-02-05 low near $0.08736 after a large daily red candle.
- Since the flush low, price bounced to ~$0.09430 (today’s intraday high) but failed to convert that area into support.
Inference: Medium-term structure remains bearish until DOGE reclaims and holds above the next broken supply zones (first $0.096–$0.100, then $0.104–$0.108).
Intraday (hourly) structure
- The last 24h shows:
- Push up to $0.09430 (swing high).
- Sharp sell impulse at 16:00 to ~$0.09128 low (a clear intraday “breakdown leg”).
- Subsequent hours are range-bound between roughly $0.09090–$0.09210, with current price back near $0.09154.
Inference: Intraday trend shifted from “bounce” to distribution/range after rejection, which often precedes either a continuation down (most common in broader downtrends) or a base—confirmation needed.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (Horizontal levels + pivots)
Major resistance (supply)
- $0.0942–$0.0944: Today’s high and repeated rejection zone.
- $0.0967–$0.0985: Recent daily closes and post-crash rebound area (Feb 6–8 region).
- $0.1000–$0.1040: Psychological + prior daily pivot/support now likely resistance (Feb 1–4 area).
Major support (demand)
- $0.0910–$0.0909: Intraday pivot support touched multiple times (hourly lows around 0.09090–0.09101).
- $0.0883–$0.0874: Feb 5 crash low zone = “last line” support.
Key observation: Price is currently closer to support (0.0910) than to resistance (0.0943). In a downtrend, this is dangerous because a support break can trigger fast liquidation.
3) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style reasoning)
- Daily candles around Feb 5–6 show very expanded ranges (high volatility). After that, candles contracted—typical post-shock consolidation.
- Hourly range today roughly 0.0909 → 0.0943 (~3.7%). That’s significant; DOGE can traverse the full intraday band quickly.
Inference: With volatility elevated, levels matter more than indicators—breaks can be abrupt. A tight stop without accounting for noise is likely to be hit.
4) Volume / participation cues
- Daily volume spikes:
- Feb 5: very high volume (capitulation) with large drop.
- Feb 6: very high volume rebound.
- Latest daily candle (Feb 12) volume is still substantial, but price failed to hold the highs, implying supply absorbed the bounce.
- Hourly volume is intermittent (some hours show 0 in the feed), but notable activity around the 16:00 sell impulse—suggesting active selling on the breakdown.
Inference: The bounce looks more like a relief rally being sold than strong accumulation.
5) Candlestick / price action signals
Daily
- Post-crash days show attempted stabilization, but the market is printing lower recovery highs relative to the pre-crash levels.
- Today: opened ~0.09104, ran up to ~0.09430, but fell back to close around 0.09154 (near the lower half of the day’s range). That’s a rejection candle (upper wick behavior) in context of a broader downtrend.
Hourly
- Clear impulse down at 16:00 (range expansion) followed by weak bounce—typical of a “sell the rip” environment.
Inference: Candlestick context biases to down/sideways next 24h unless 0.0943 is reclaimed.
6) Moving average logic (trend filters, qualitative)
Even without exact MA calculations, the path from ~$0.15 down to ~$0.09 over ~2–3 months implies:
- Price is likely below the 50D and 200D (bearish regime).
- Any rally into prior support (0.096–0.104) is likely to meet dynamic selling pressure.
Inference: Trend filters favor short trades on rallies rather than longs from mid-range.
7) Fibonacci retracement (anchored to the crash leg)
Using the crash leg approximately $0.104 (Feb 4 close area) → $0.0874 (Feb 5 low):
- 38.2% retracement ≈ 0.0937
- 50% retracement ≈ 0.0957
- 61.8% retracement ≈ 0.0977
Today’s high 0.0943 aligns near the 38.2% zone → classic area for a bearish retracement failure.
Inference: Rejection near fib 38% increases odds of a retest of lows.
8) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / retest support
- Price remains capped below 0.0940–0.0944.
- Gradual grind lower toward 0.0910, then a probe to 0.0900–0.0895.
- If 0.0910 breaks with momentum, a faster move toward 0.0885–0.0875 becomes plausible.
Alternate case: range expansion upward (squeeze)
- If price reclaims 0.0944 and holds (hourly closes above), it can rotate toward 0.0967–0.0985 (next supply).
- This would likely still be a countertrend rally unless 0.10+ is reclaimed.
Probabilistic tilt: Bearish, because (1) macro structure is down, (2) fib retracement rejection, (3) close near lower part of the session range, (4) intraday impulse down then weak bounce.
Trade plan (actionable)
Decision: Sell (Short) — prefer selling into resistance rather than at support.
- Optimal open (entry): $0.09390 (a retest/sell-the-rip zone just below the 0.0943 rejection and near the ~38.2% retracement region).
- Rationale: better R:R than shorting at 0.0915; you’re selling closer to supply.
- Take-profit (close price): $0.08960
- Rationale: captures a likely 24h rotation back toward the lower range while staying above the major crash low zone (~0.0874) where bounces can be violent.
Risk note (not requested but important): If price reclaims and holds above $0.09440–$0.09500, the short thesis weakens materially (would indicate absorption of supply).