DOGE: Sell the Bounce Into 0.141–0.143 as Downtrend Resumes — Target 0.133

Executive summary

• Bias: Bearish continuation. Short-term rallies are being sold. Structure is lower highs/lower lows across daily and intraday.
• 24h outlook: Expect a sell-the-bounce setup with an intraday overshoot into 0.141–0.143 rejected, followed by a retest and likely undercut of 0.135–0.1355; probability of stop-run toward 0.133–0.1335.
• Trade plan (summary): Sell into strength near 0.1415; target 0.1338 over the next 24h.

Multi-timeframe price structure

• Higher-timeframe (daily) trend: Clear downtrend since early November. Post-10/10 crash consolidation resolved into a staircase of lower highs from 0.156–0.153–0.152–0.148–0.140. Today’s session made a lower low vs. 12/05 (intraday 0.13528 vs. 0.1377), confirming continuation.
• Near-term (last 2 weeks): Failed bounce from 12/01 low (0.1324) to 12/03 (0.1519) was sold; subsequent highs are progressively lower. Current price 0.1388 sits below the 20D SMA and below multiple supply layers (0.142, 0.146, 0.152).
• Intraday (hourly): Range day with volatility: sharp sell at 14:00 UTC to 0.1353, V-shaped bounce to 0.1428 at 17–18:00, then lower highs since 19:00 and fade into close at 0.1388. That’s classic distribution after a squeeze.

Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance: 0.1420–0.1428 (today’s spike high and 50% retrace of 12/01–12/03 swing), 0.1445–0.1450 (61.8% retrace), 0.1473–0.1480 (20D SMA vicinity prior closes), 0.1519–0.1530 (12/03 high/late Nov supply).
• Support: 0.1353–0.1356 (today’s low and 12/01 close), 0.1330–0.1335 (approx 20D lower Bollinger estimate), 0.1324 (12/01 swing low). A break of 0.135 tends to run stops toward 0.133–0.132.

Moving averages and trend measures

• 20D SMA (computed from last 20 closes): ≈ 0.14737. Price = 0.13876 is 5.8% below = bearish bias; rallies toward SMA likely meet supply.
• 50D SMA (approx, given prior higher prices in September/October): well above 0.16–0.18; price deeply sub-50D = established downtrend.
• EMAs (qualitative): Fast EMAs (8/21) below slow; no bullish crossover on daily; hourly EMAs rolled over after the 18:00 spike.
• Linear regression slope (last 20 sessions): Negative; price hugging lower half of the regression channel.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (computed from last 14 day-to-day changes): ≈ 44.8. Below 50, above 30: bearish but not oversold, leaving room for further downside without requiring a bounce.
• Hourly RSI: Reached mid-60s on the 17–18:00 pump, then rolled back toward mid-40s; no positive divergence at close.
• Stoch RSI (qualitative): Reset from overbought during the intraday bounce and is crossing down = short-term sell signal lining up with trend.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero line; histogram likely modestly negative after the early-December bounce faded. No bullish crossover.
• Hourly MACD: Bearish crossover post-19:00; histogram expanding slightly negative as price slipped from 0.142 to 0.139.

Volatility and envelopes

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~0.1474; estimated lower band ~0.133–0.134 based on recent dispersion; price closed in lower half, with an intraday tag of the lower-half region and rejection from mid-band underside on rallies. A tag/undercut of the lower band in the next 24h is plausible if 0.135 breaks.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 2×ATR): Price persistently near/below lower KC, signifying trend pressure rather than mean reversion dominance.
• ATR(14) (daily, est): ~0.008–0.010. Implies a 24h fair range band of ~0.008 around spot; today’s high-low swing (~0.0075) fits; a push from 0.1415 down toward 0.133–0.134 sits within 1×ATR to 1.1×ATR.

Volume, VWAP, and flow

• Daily participation: Volume contracted after 12/01’s risk-off candle and today’s 14:00 liquidation spike; rallies to 0.142–0.143 occurred on waning volume = weak demand.
• OBV (qualitative): Drifting lower since late Nov; no accumulation signature.
• Today’s intraday VWAP (approx): Around 0.1397–0.1405, considering heavy prints at 14:00 (down) and 17–18:00 (up). Current price 0.1388 < VWAP = intraday sellers in control; bounces toward VWAP likely fade.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Tenkan (≈ mid of last 9 high/low ≈ (0.1529 + 0.1353)/2 ≈ 0.1441) and below Kijun (26-period baseline likely ≥0.160). Cloud overhead and bearish Span A/B alignment. Classic bearish configuration.

DMI/ADX (daily, qualitative)

• -DI > +DI and ADX in the low-20s rising: trend reasserting post failed bounce. Favors continuation signals (sell rallies) over counter-trend longs.

Parabolic SAR (daily/hourly)

• Likely above price on both daily and hourly after the late-session roll; indicates rallies will tag SAR and roll if trend persists.

Market structure and patterns

• Descending channel/flag from 12/03 peak; measured move from the 12/05–12/07 swing projects into 0.133–0.134 on a channel touch.
• Fibonacci (local swing): Using 12/01 low 0.1324 to 12/03 high 0.15194:
  • 38.2%: ≈ 0.13985 (was battled/failed today)
  • 50%: ≈ 0.14216 (intraday rejection zone today)
  • 61.8%: ≈ 0.14446 (untouched; strong resistance above) The 50%–61.8% sell zone capped price; rejection validates a downside rotation back toward 38.2% and below.
• Pivot levels (from 12/06 H/L/C 0.140585/0.138565/0.139743): P ≈ 0.13963; R1 ≈ 0.14070; R2 ≈ 0.14165; S1 ≈ 0.13868; S2 ≈ 0.13761. Today pierced both extremes intraday, and we’re closing just under P/S1, typical of weak closes.
• Candles: Daily forming a small-body candle after long lower intrusion, but without a strong close >0.140–0.141 it’s not a convincing hammer. On hourly, the 18–21:00 sequence printed an exhaustion wick and lower close.

Order flow and liquidity context

• Weekend thinness produced a stop-hunt down and a reflex bounce. Subsequent hours showed supply capping each push. Into Asia/Europe Monday, liquidity improves; with broader downtrend and lack of oversold extremes, a continuation push below 0.135 is probable.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (~55%): Early-session bounce toward 0.141–0.1425 (VWAP/R1/50% fib confluence), rejection, then drift lower to 0.135 and breakout to 0.133–0.134; session close near 0.136–0.137.
• Bear extension (~25%): Shallow bounce capped below 0.1405; fast flush to 0.132–0.133 (20D lower band/12/01 low), possible wick to 0.1318–0.1322 before mean-reverting back to 0.134–0.135.
• Bull risk (~20%): Sustained reclaim >0.1425 and then >0.1445 (61.8% fib) negates near-term short; would target 0.147–0.148 (20D SMA underside). Probability lower absent volume shift.

Cross-method consensus

• Trend-following (MAs, Ichimoku, DMI, SAR): Bearish; favors shorting rallies.
• Mean reversion (BB/KC/VWAP): Price in lower half; mean reversion rally already tested and failed at mid/VWAP; next impulse likely tags lower band.
• Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch): Below-neutral momentum with room to decline; no positive divergence to argue for a durable low.
• Pattern-based (channels/Fib/pivots): Rejection at 0.142–0.143 aligns with 50% fib and R2; targeting 0.133–0.134 channel support.

Risk management notes

• Invalidation: Strong hourly close >0.1445 and daily hold above ~0.145 would weaken the short and open the path to ~0.147–0.148 (20D SMA). Until then, odds favor selling strength.

Actionable plan

• Approach: Sell the bounce into confluence. Optimal limit sell in the 0.1410–0.1420 pocket to maximize R:R while staying realistic on fill probability.
• Target: 0.1338, just above the 20D lower band and ahead of the 12/01 swing low to capture the first liquidity pocket below 0.135.
• Timeframe: 24 hours. Expected intraday range 0.1325–0.1430. Not financial advice; short-term trading is risky.