DOGE at a Breakdown Retest: Sellers Defend 0.096–0.100, Downside Retest Likely in 24H

Market structure (Daily)

• Primary trend: Downtrend since early Jan. The swing high region near 0.156 (Jan 6) rolled over into a sequence of lower highs / lower lows.
• Key leg: The late-Jan/early-Feb liquidation took price from ~0.117 to a low near 0.088 (Feb 5), then a relief bounce into 0.111 (Feb 14) that failed quickly—classic bear-market rally.
• Current regime: Price is now 0.09337, below the mid-Feb consolidation (~0.098–0.101) and below most prior support levels from early Feb.

Support/Resistance mapping (price-action / horizontals)

Immediate resistances (overhead supply):

• 0.0946–0.0956: intraday pivots; also near today’s earlier base before breakdown.
• 0.0964–0.0974: intraday high band today; multiple rejections.
• 0.0983–0.1001: dense daily congestion (Feb 18–21 closes + Feb 20 high).

Immediate supports (downside):

• 0.09175: today’s intraday low (hourly wick). If revisited and breaks, momentum typically accelerates.
• 0.0900–0.0883: psychological + Feb 11 close ~0.0910 and Feb 5 capitulation area ~0.0883.

Trend & momentum (multi-timeframe)

1) Daily momentum read (price action proxy)

• Last several daily closes: 0.1001 → 0.09848 → 0.09545 → 0.09337 (Feb 20–23). This is a clear short-term bearish slope with lower closes.
• The Feb 14 spike to 0.113 was fully mean-reverted; that failed impulse often leaves distribution and reinforces a bearish bias.

2) Hourly structure (intraday)

• Today formed an early dip to 0.09175, then a recovery to 0.09743, followed by a steady fade into the close 0.09337.
• That’s consistent with a bearish intraday “failed bounce / lower high” behavior: buyers could not hold above ~0.096–0.097.

Volatility & range behavior

• Today’s daily range: High ~0.09743 / Low ~0.09175 → ~6.2% peak-to-trough, which is elevated.
• Elevated volatility after a failed bounce often favors trend continuation (more likely another support test) rather than immediate clean reversal.

Volume (contextual)

• Latest daily bar shows ~1.03B volume on a down day (from ~0.09545 open to ~0.09337 close). That suggests active selling pressure rather than a low-liquidity drift.

Pattern/formation notes

• Breakdown from consolidation: Feb 18–21 repeatedly held ~0.098–0.100; Feb 22–23 broke lower and stayed below, indicating prior support is now resistance.
• Mean-reversion failure: The bounce to ~0.0974 today could not sustain, which increases probability of a retest of 0.0918.

24-hour forward scenario (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): bearish drift / retest support

• Expect price to attempt a bounce into 0.0946–0.0956 (retest of breakdown zone). If it rejects there, a move toward 0.0920–0.0917 becomes likely.
• If 0.0917 breaks on momentum, next magnet is 0.0900, then 0.0883–0.0890.

Alternative case (lower probability): short squeeze / reclaim)

• If price reclaims and holds above 0.0965, it can squeeze to 0.0983–0.1001. But given recent closes and repeated rejection near 0.0974, this currently looks less likely without a catalyst.

Trade bias synthesis

• Structure: bearish (lower highs/lows)
• Key level: trading below 0.098–0.100 supply
• Intraday: failed rebound
• Volatility: favors continuation into nearby supports

Conclusion: Bias remains short (Sell) for the next 24 hours, targeting a retest of 0.0917 and potentially 0.0900/0.088x if support fails.

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Note: This is technical-analysis-based and not financial advice; crypto is highly volatile.

Suggested execution logic

• Prefer entering on a pullback into resistance (better R:R) rather than selling the exact current print.
• Ideal short entry zone: 0.0948–0.0956 (near intraday pivots / breakdown retest). For a single precise open price, use the midpoint of that supply band.
• Take-profit: first objective at 0.0918 (intraday low retest). If momentum is strong, partials can be considered lower, but one defined close price is provided below.