DOGE at the Brink: Breakdown Retest Favors a Push to 0.133

Summary view

• Market state: Short-term momentum is bearish on both daily and hourly timeframes. Price just broke a multi-session support cluster and is trading below key moving averages, below VWAP, and near the lower Bollinger band with weak bounces. Path of least resistance for the next 24 hours is down toward 0.135–0.133, with risk of a liquidity sweep of the 12/01 low (0.1324).
• Plan: Sell a retest of broken intraday support (now resistance) 0.1398–0.1405. Target prior liquidity and pivot confluence around 0.1330. Invalidation on sustained reclaim above 0.1422–0.1425.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Price action and structure

• Higher-timeframe (Daily): After the October breakdown, DOGE formed a series of lower highs and lower lows. The Nov 24–Dec 3 rally topped at 0.15194 (12/03), then reversed. The neckline area around 0.1467–0.1475 (12/04 close 0.14750) gave way today, resulting in an expansion lower to 0.13857. The move completes and exceeds a measured M-top from 0.1519 → 0.1467 (~0.0052 height), projecting to ~0.1415 (met) with an extension underway toward 0.135–0.133.
• Intraday (Hourly): Clear descending channel from ~0.148 down to ~0.138. The breakdown through 0.142–0.143 was accompanied by increased volume at 16:00 UTC, followed by failed bounces capped by VWAP and micro lower highs. Price currently sits just above the session lows and beneath prior micro supports 0.1391–0.1403.
• Key supports below: 0.1391 (78.6% retrace of 12/01–12/03 swing), 0.1377–0.1376 (hourly pivot shelf), 0.1356 (12/01 close area), 0.1330–0.1324 (12/01 low zone / liquidity).
• Key resistances above: 0.1398–0.1405 (intraday breakdown retest and prior daily micro close), 0.1420–0.1425 (intraday supply, former floor), 0.1444–0.1469 (hourly highs/12/04 close), 0.1519 (12/03 swing high).

2. Trend and moving averages

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 0.1489 (avg of last 20 closes). Price 0.1386 is ~6.9% below the SMA20 → bearish short-term trend.
• Daily SMA50 (qualitative): Elevated due to September pricing in the mid-0.20s; price is well below → medium-term trend bearish.
• EMAs (approximate): EMA12 ~ 0.147–0.148 and EMA26 ~ 0.150–0.151. MACD-line (EMA12–EMA26) is negative; both EMAs overhead → downside pressure persists.
• Hourly MAs: Price below H1 20/50/200 EMAs and consistently rejected near the 20EMA/VWAP—typical bearish trend behavior intraday.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ~ 49 by estimate (not oversold). This allows further room to the downside before daily mean reversion pressure intensifies.
• Hourly RSI(14) low-to-mid 30s after a multi-hour bleed, hugging the lower band—weak bounces are probable, but trend continuation setups remain favored until RSI positively diverges.
• Stochastic (H1): Likely sub-20 with repeated resets and no strong cross up; momentum still weak.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with expanding negative histogram post 12/03 high; bearish momentum.
• Hourly MACD: Negative and below signal, consistent with ongoing downtrend intraday.

5. Volatility and range

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~0.0045–0.0055. A 1×ATR push from 0.1386 targets ~0.133–0.143. Given trend direction and orderflow, odds favor probing the lower bound (0.135–0.133) within 24 hours.
• Hourly ATR(14): ~0.0010–0.0014 lately; multiple ATRs lower remain possible into a weak-liquidity weekend tape.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB(20): Mid-band ≈ SMA20 ~0.1489; lower band estimated near 0.1345–0.1350. Price at 0.1386 rides the lower half and has room toward the daily lower band, aligning with 0.135 area.
• Hourly BB: Price hugging/breaking lower band repeatedly; weak mean reversion, then continuation—a common bearish grind.

7. Volume/OBV/Flow

• Daily: Post 12/03 top, down days show persistent distribution. OBV slope has turned down since that high—sellers in control.
• Hourly: Breakdown through ~0.142 came with volume expansion at 16:00 UTC, then anemic buy volume on retests—classic acceptance below broken support.

8. VWAP (intraday)

• Price has remained below session VWAP most of the day; every reclaim attempt was sold. As long as price stays under VWAP, rallies are sell opportunities.

9. Fibonacci mapping (recent swing)

• Swing 12/01 low 0.13559 → 12/03 high 0.15194.
  • 38.2%: ~0.14572 (lost)
  • 50%: ~0.14377 (lost)
  • 61.8%: ~0.14181 (lost)
  • 78.6%: ~0.13909 (now slightly below/around)
• Clean break of 78.6% often implies a full retrace into the origin (0.1356) and can overshoot into liquidity (0.133–0.1324).

10. Pivot points (classic, based on 12/04)

• PP ≈ 0.14874, S1 ≈ 0.14475, S2 ≈ 0.14199, S3 ≈ 0.13525.
• Current price below S2, approaching S3. Markets frequently tag S3 during strong trend days, reinforcing 0.135–0.1353 as a magnet.

11. Ichimoku (directional read)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; forward cloud bearish—downtrend intact.
• Hourly: Below cloud with bearish alignment; rallies likely capped by Tenkan/Kijun confluence ~0.1398–0.1405 initially, 0.142x above.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Daily M-top around 0.152 with neckline 0.1467 breakdown—already fulfilled and extending.
• Hourly descending channel persists; breakdown-retest pattern is visible around 0.1398–0.1405—ideal for entry.
• No convincing bullish divergence yet on H1/H2; downside continuation favored.

13. Scenario mapping (24h)

• Base case (55%): Minor bounce to 0.1398–0.1405 (VWAP/MA/Cloud resistance), rejection, trend continuation to 0.136–0.1356. Liquidity sweep risk to 0.1330–0.1324 before a reflexive bounce.
• Alt 1 (25%): Sideways-to-lower grind 0.139 → 0.136 without a meaningful retest; eventual probe of 0.135–0.133 by end of window.
• Alt 2 (20%): Squeeze above 0.1405 toward 0.1422–0.1425 (prior floor); if reclaimed and held, a deeper squeeze to 0.1444 is possible, but trend remains down unless 0.1469–0.1475 is reclaimed and accepted.

14. Risk management overlays

• Invalidation: Sustained reclaim and acceptance above 0.1422–0.1425 (hourly closes and VWAP hold) would weaken the short, with 0.1444–0.1469 next. For trade control, a protective stop would typically sit near 0.1423–0.1426.
• Liquidity considerations: Weekend crypto sessions can produce thin liquidity and exaggerated wicks. Place targets modestly above obvious lows (e.g., 0.1330 ahead of 0.1324) to improve fill odds.

Synthesis and call

• Confluence of trend, breakdown-retest behavior, momentum, and Fib mapping supports a short on bounces. Price has room to test the 0.135–0.133 pocket within the next 24 hours, with invalidation clearly defined above 0.1422–0.1425.

Execution blueprint

• Entry: Prefer a limit sell on a retest into 0.1398–0.1405. If no retest occurs, tactical entries on weak intraday rallies near VWAP remain valid.
• Take profit: 0.1330 (front-run of the 12/01 low and daily S3/BB lower confluence). Secondary extension 0.1324 if momentum accelerates.
• (Optional) Stop for plan integrity: ~0.1423–0.1426.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: 0.1328–0.1415
• Path: Early bounce toward 0.1400–0.1405 → rejection → stair-step lower toward 0.136 → tag 0.1356 → potential liquidity sweep into 0.1330 ± 0.0005 before a modest bounce.