Short the Rip: DOGE Bounce into 0.126–0.127 Likely Before Drive to 0.118s

Snapshot and context

• Asset: Dogecoin (DOGE)
• Timestamp: 2025-12-18 22:00 UTC
• Last price: 0.12281151
• Structure: Persistent multi-week downtrend from late Sep (~0.27) to current (~0.123), with intermittent bounces, heavy sell-volume on down legs, and recent acceleration lower.

Multi-timeframe trend assessment

• Daily trend: Clear series of lower highs and lower lows since early October. Notable regime shift on 2025-10-10 with a high-volatility breakdown (flash low ~0.1148). Since late Nov, price failed to reclaim mid-0.15s and rolled over, taking out successive supports around 0.148, 0.142, 0.135, and now probing 0.12s.
• 4H/1H trend: Intraday breakdown today after a brief pop to ~0.129–0.130, then impulsive sell to ~0.120, followed by a modest bounce to ~0.123. Structure resembles a bearish continuation sequence (impulse down, weak bounce beneath broken intraday VWAP/EMAs, potential bear flag).
• Moving averages (approximations):
  • Daily 20-SMA ≈ 0.1395 (average of last 20 closes). Price at 0.1228 is ~12% below: firmly bearish and near/through lower Bollinger Band.
  • Daily 50-SMA likely in mid-high 0.16s given Nov prints; price well below.
  • Daily 200-SMA likely higher still (>0.18). Strong negative slope separation implies entrenched downtrend.
  • 1H 20/50 EMAs: price trading below both after the 17:00 UTC breakdown; bounces likely meet supply at ~0.125–0.127.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): low 30s to high 20s after three successive lower closes (0.1317 → 0.1262 → 0.1228). That is short-term oversold but consistent with trend thrust.
• 1H RSI: dipped sub-30 on the breakdown to ~0.120, now rebounding to mid-30s/low-40s (typical bear market rally setup). Favors a bounce into resistance before further downside.
• MACD daily: Bearish (signal below zero, histogram expanding negative after re-acceleration lower). No confirmed bullish cross; momentum still down.
• MACD 1H: Likely trying to curl up from deeply negative territory; scope for a short-lived mean-reversion pop, not necessarily a trend reversal.
• Stochastic (1H): Oversold hook-up underway; often fuels a bounce into EMA/VWAP before rolling over.
• ADX/DMI daily: Trend strength elevated (ADX > 25 likely), with -DI > +DI, confirming trend-driven selloffs favored over mean-reversion holds.

Volatility diagnostics

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.008–0.010. From 0.1228, a 1x ATR move spans ~0.1128–0.1328 in 24 hours. That puts both 0.118s and 0.129s within reach in a day; 0.115 is a stretch but attainable in an impulsive extension.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): Mid ≈ 0.1395; lower band ~0.124–0.125 (using σ ≈ 0.0075). Price is slightly through the lower band—often invites a bounce but not necessarily a full reversal in strong trends.
• Keltner Channels (20EMA, 2x ATR, approx.): Price sits at/through lower KC, indicating trend thrust with potential for continuation after a reflexive bounce.

Support, resistance, and key levels

• Immediate support: 0.120–0.121 (today’s low ~0.12024). Break opens 0.1183–0.1186 (daily S2 from prior session) and then 0.115 (confluence zone near historical flash low cluster/round number).
• Resistance (near-term supply):
  • 0.1245–0.1255 (intraday breakdown retest/VWAP zone).
  • 0.1265–0.1270 (1H EMA cluster / prior congestion).
  • 0.1285–0.1304 (session spike high zone; stronger supply).
  • 0.134–0.135 (former daily support turned resistance).
• Pivot levels (derived from 2025-12-17 H/L/C = 0.135922/0.125113/0.126175):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.12907
  • S1 ≈ 0.12222 (breached today)
  • S2 ≈ 0.11826 (next support target)
  • R1 ≈ 0.13303
  • R2 ≈ 0.13988

Pattern and structure

• Intraday (1H): Impulsive sell (17–19 UTC), minor bounce (20–21 UTC) under broken support; potential bear flag risking another leg down if 0.121 fails. Ideal short entries are into the 0.125–0.127 retest band.
• Daily: Descending channel continues. Today’s close near lows with only modest tail suggests sellers in control; any bounce likely corrective.
• Candlestick context: No authoritative reversal candle on daily; hourly prints lack a strong capitulation hammer. Bias remains sell-the-rip.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing sequence: High 0.152913 (Dec 9) → Low 0.129732 (Dec 15) → Retrace high 0.135922 (Dec 17). Extensions from the retrace high:
  • 0.618 ext: 0.135922 − 0.618*(0.152913−0.129732) ≈ 0.1216 (tested today)
  • 1.000 ext: ≈ 0.1127 (aligns with the Oct 10 extreme zone 0.1148–0.115)
  • This places 0.118–0.121 as a high-probability magnet area (we’re in it), with risk of a final drive into 0.115–0.113 if selling persists.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud overhead. Bearish alignment across components → rallies likely capped below Tenkan (~0.138) well above current price.
• 1H: Price below cloud; Kumo acts as dynamic resistance; a bounce to 0.126–0.128 would still sit below the cloud.

Volume/flow

• Daily volumes elevated on down days (distribution). OBV trajectory negative; Chaikin Money Flow likely sub-zero, confirming net outflows.
• Today’s intraday: Volume spikes on the breakdown hours; rebound hours lighter—classic bearish profile.

DeMark/Sequential (heuristic)

• 1H count likely nearing or just past an exhaustion 9 on the sell sequence at the 19:00 low; typical behavior is a 1–4 bar reaction up before trend resumption. That supports the bounce-to-sell thesis.

Elliott-wave framing (heuristic)

• From the Dec 9 high, labeling suggests: A (152.9 → 129.7), B (129.7 → 135.9), C-wave in progress with subwaves (i) down to 126–127, (ii) up to 129–130, (iii) down to ~121, (iv) up to 125–126, (v) down to 118–115. We appear to be in late (iii)/(iv) transition—favoring a small bounce then a final push to 118s.

Confluence summary (what matters for the next 24h)

• Directional bias: Bearish continuation, but with high odds of a corrective pop into 0.125–0.127 first.
• Confluence for short:
  • Price under all key MAs, below 1H cloud/VWAP.
  • Daily MACD/ADX bearish; OBV down.
  • Pivot S1 already broken; S2 (0.1183) in play.
  • Fib 0.618 extension hit; next magnets 0.118–0.115 (confluence with S2 and prior flash-lows).
  • Hourly momentum reset supports a “sell-the-rip” setup at 0.126–0.127.

Scenario probabilities (24h)

• Base case (60%): Bounce to 0.1255–0.1270, rejection, extension lower toward 0.118–0.119. Close near 0.119–0.121.
• Bearish extension (30%): Minimal bounce; breakdown through 0.120 to 0.116–0.115 (approaches 1.0 Fib ext ~0.113). Volatility spike.
• Bullish squeeze (10%): Sustained reclaim of 0.129–0.130 supply, run to 0.133 (R1) before stalling. Would invalidate near-term short and force reevaluation.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Sell strength (short the bounce) within the 0.1265–0.1275 supply zone where 1H EMAs/VWAP cluster and broken supports reside.
• Entry: Limit sell 0.1269.
• Take-profit: 0.1186 (above pivot S2 0.11826 to account for front-running and spread). Within 1x ATR and consistent with scenario path.
• Invalidation (stop, not required by prompt but critical): 0.1308 (above 1H supply and today’s intraday spike zone 0.1304). R:R ≈ (0.1269−0.1186)/(0.1308−0.1269) ≈ 0.0083/0.0039 ≈ 2.1:1.
• Alternate execution: If price fails to bounce and instead breaks 0.120 cleanly, consider a breakdown short on a retest of 0.1208–0.1215 with the same 0.1186 target (tighter stop ~0.1234). This is secondary to the preferred “sell the rip” plan.

Risk notes

• DOGE can exhibit abrupt squeezes; position sizing and hard stops advised.
• If a daily close reclaims the 20-SMA band (~0.139), the broader short thesis weakens materially (not expected within 24h).

Bottom line

• Expect a dead-cat bounce toward 0.126–0.127, then continuation lower targeting 0.118–0.119 within 24 hours. The optimal tactical play is a short on that bounce with a take-profit just above S2.