DOT poised for a pivot bounce: Buying the 3.19 dip for a 3.34 retest within 24 hours

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis for DOT (next 24 hours)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (1D): After the Oct 10 liquidation crash to ~2.96 and a secondary low near 2.51 (Nov 4), DOT staged a two-leg rebound, peaking at ~3.52 on Nov 8. The last three sessions show consolidation/pullback with smaller bodies and declining volume – classic digestion after an impulsive up-move. Structure: short-term uptrend (higher low vs 2.66–2.51 base), medium-term downtrend (still below falling 50D/200D MAs), long-term overhead resistance remains dense between 3.45–3.70.
• Intraday (1H): Since the Nov 8 spike, 1H shows lower highs 3.30 → 3.27 → 3.25, and higher lows from the late-Nov 7 base, compressing toward 3.18–3.25. This is a contracting consolidation (mini-bull flag/triangle) after an impulsive leg, typically resolves in the direction of the prior trend unless invalidated.

2. Key levels (confluence across methods)

• Support: • 3.18–3.20: 38.2–50% retracement of 2.6639 → 3.5225 rally; today’s intraday reaction low ~3.17–3.19; also close to the classic daily pivot (calc below). • 3.12–3.14: intraday demand and pre-break basing; just above daily S1. • 3.06–3.08: 61.8% retracement zone and daily S1 (calc ~3.0836) – deeper pullback line in the sand for the bullish scenario. • 2.96 and 2.66: flash-crash close and swing low – major structural supports.
• Resistance: • 3.25–3.27: intraday supply shelf (multiple 1H rejections). • 3.30–3.34: supply cluster; aligns with daily R1 (~3.342) and prior 1H swing high. • 3.45: daily R2 (~3.452) and pre-sell-off distribution band. • 3.52: recent spike high – key breakout pivot.

3. Pivot points (Classic, based on 11/09 H/L/C ≈ 3.3025/3.0438/3.2329)

• P ≈ 3.1931
• R1 ≈ 3.3423, R2 ≈ 3.4518
• S1 ≈ 3.0836, S2 ≈ 2.9344 Interpretation: Price is oscillating around the pivot P ~3.19 (fair value for the day), suggesting consolidation with upside magnets at R1 if buyers reclaim 3.25–3.27.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA: rising and likely clustered near ~3.08–3.12 (midline of the recent regime). Price trades modestly above it – short-term positive.
• 50D SMA: still declining (likely in the mid/high 3s from the Aug/Sept regime). Price remains below – medium-term downtrend intact.
• 200D SMA: well above current price – long-term trend still bearish. Takeaway: Short-term bullish bias inside a broader bearish channel; the rally is a countertrend swing unless 3.52–3.70 clears.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2) on 1D

• Price pulled from near the upper band back toward the mid-band (≈20SMA). Upper band likely ~3.35–3.40; lower band ~2.75–2.85. Current compression with price near the midline favors a bounce attempt if the midline holds (confluent with ~3.18–3.20 pivot area).

6. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (1D, 14): Recovered from oversold in early Nov to neutral territory (approx mid-50s). This supports a buy-the-dip stance while above 45–50.
• RSI (1H, 14): Cooled from overbought during the Nov 7–8 surge; currently near mid-40s to low-50s, consistent with consolidation. A reclaim above 55–60 on 1H would confirm momentum resumption.
• Stochastic (1H): Cycling near midline after earlier oversold tag; room to push higher if support holds.
• MACD (1D): Bullish crossover recently with a positive/flattening histogram; not extended. (1H): Histogram near zero and slightly negative, consistent with a shallow pullback; a turn-up would be an actionable trigger.
• ADX (1D): Rising from low teens toward the 20s; indicates nascent trend strength after a base.

7. Volume, OBV, and accumulation metrics

• Volume: Massive thrust on Nov 7 (breakout day) and strong on Nov 8; subsequent sessions show lighter volume during pullback – constructive (selling not aggressive).
• OBV: Turned up strongly on the thrust; has held most gains – suggests accumulation remains intact.
• Chaikin Money Flow/MFI (qualitative): Improving vs. late Oct, aligns with positive money flow on up days.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative read)

• Price > Tenkan and > Kijun estimates (~3.02 area), signaling short-term bullishness, but still below the Kumo top from the broader downtrend regime (~3.60–3.70). Chikou span cleared recent price, but the cloud overhead remains a larger barrier. Net: short-term bullish within a longer-term neutral/bearish cloud context.

9. VWAPs and mean reversion

• Intraday VWAP (today) oscillated near 3.23–3.24 earlier; anchored VWAP from the Nov 7 low likely sits near the 3.18–3.22 zone. Current price hugging anchored VWAP supports the notion of fair-value consolidation; bounces from this band typically retest recent supply at 3.28–3.34.

10. Fibonacci mapping of the current leg (2.6639 → 3.5225)

• 38.2%: ~3.1945
• 50%: ~3.0932? (Using the exact leg: midpoint is (3.5225+2.6639)/2 ≈ 3.0932; the price has primarily respected the 38.2–50% cluster, with intraday probes just below 3.20 and bounces.)
• 61.8%: ~3.07 Interpretation: Price has so far respected 38.2–50% pullback – classic shallow corrective behavior in an emerging upswing. Holding above ~3.18 keeps the higher-low structure intact; deeper but controlled dips into ~3.08–3.12 would still be acceptable, though lower odds for the next 24h unless BTC weakens broadly.

11. Candlestick/price action

• Nov 7: Wide-range bullish breakout candle.
• Nov 8: Long upper wick near 3.52 (profit-taking), but still strong close.
• Nov 9: Small-bodied consolidation candle – indecision.
• Today (intraday): Dips to ~3.17–3.19 bought, upper wicks around 3.25–3.26 – a developing balance. 1H wicks into 3.17 hint at responsive buyers at the pivot/Fibo cluster.

12. Wyckoff/Elliott-style interpretation

• Wyckoff: Phase D-type behavior after a spring/accumulation in the 2.5–2.9 range, followed by a sign of strength (SOS) on Nov 7 and a back-up to the breakout (BUEC) into the 3.18–3.20 area. If buyers defend, next objective is to test 3.30–3.34 and potentially 3.45.
• Elliott (simplified): Impulse (Wave 1) from 2.66 to 3.52, now Wave 2 correction likely ended/ending near 38.2–50% retrace; next 24h could begin Wave 3 of a smaller degree targeting 3.32–3.45.

13. Volatility and expected move

• 1D ATR(14) qualitatively elevated vs. late Oct; estimate ~0.18–0.20. A one-ATR move projects 3.21 ± 0.18 → 3.39 on the upside and 3.03 on downside. Base case within 24h: 3.18–3.34 range with skew to the upside given the constructive pullback dynamics.

14. Scenario probabilities (qualitative)

• Base case (≈60%): Pivot hold at 3.18–3.20 → push to 3.28–3.34 (tests daily R1 zone).
• Bear case (≈30%): Break and acceptance below 3.18 → fast test 3.12 and 3.08 (S1/61.8%).
• Tail risk (≈10%): Broad risk-off spillover → 3.03–2.96 retest.

15. Trade plan synthesis and triggers

• Long bias while above 3.18 pivot/Fibo cluster; intraday trigger: 1H MACD turn-up and RSI reclaim >55 alongside a clean reclaim of 3.25.
• Confluence for entry: Daily pivot ~3.19, anchored VWAP band, 38.2–50% Fib, prior 1H demand – strong location to position with favorable R:R.
• Profit objective: First target 3.33–3.34 (R1/supply shelf). If momentum accelerates, 3.45 is stretch.
• Risk guardrail (stop, for planning): Below 3.12 (invalidates shallow pullback thesis), with last-defense 3.06.

Decision and 24h outlook

• Bias: Buy the dip in 3.18–3.20 zone with target 3.33–3.34 in the next 24 hours.
• Rationale: Multi-tool confluence at 3.19 (pivot, 38.2% retrace, VWAP, 20D midline), constructive volume profile (pullback on light volume), short-term momentum ready to reset higher, and a typical post-breakout backtest pattern.
• Risks: Failure to hold 3.18 leading to cascade into 3.12/3.08; macro crypto risk-off; if 3.06 breaks, bullish setup invalid short-term.