EIGEN Coil Breaks Lower: Short the 0.391 Re-test for a Drive to 0.375

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish, with a likely retest of 0.380–0.375 support before any meaningful bounce.
• Plan: Sell (short) a fade into 0.391–0.393 (prior intraday balance / short MAs confluence). Target 0.374–0.372. Invalidation above 0.401–0.404 supply.

1. Market regime and context

• Trend (multi-week): Persistent downtrend from early Oct (~2.0) to late Dec (~0.38), printing a sequence of lower highs/lows. Market remains below 20/50D MAs and under a well-defined descending channel. Long-term pressure remains bearish.
• Recent price action: After a local base attempt around 0.371–0.375 (Dec 18 & 25), price bounced into ~0.398 (Dec 27 close 0.3979) but failed to reclaim the 0.400–0.404 supply. Today’s intraday rejection from ~0.398 with heavy 18:00 volume confirms sellers defending that zone.
• Current price: 0.3863 at 21:57Z, trading back inside the late-December balance area (approx 0.384–0.396), leaning to the lower half.

2. Trend, moving averages, and momentum

• SMAs (daily):
  • SMA5 ≈ 0.3868 (price ~0.3863, marginally below—short-term tilt down).
  • SMA10 ≈ 0.389 (price below—near-term bearish bias).
  • SMA20 ≈ 0.417 (price well below—medium-term downtrend intact).
  • SMA50 (est.) > 0.60 (price far below—structural downtrend).
• EMAs (qualitative): Price under 10/20/50D EMAs, keeping momentum negative. On 1h, price appears below 50/200-hour EMAs (~0.393 and ~0.406 est.), reinforcing intraday bearish tone.
• RSI14 (daily, est.): Mid-40s (45±3). Not oversold, leaving room for further downside.
• MACD (12,26,9, daily): Below zero; a small bounce attempt into 12/27 likely nudged histogram up briefly, but today’s fade implies renewed downside momentum; no bullish cross confirmed.

3. Volatility and bands

• ATR14 (daily, est.): ~0.018. Implies typical day range of ~1.8 cents. Next 24h expected range ~0.372 to ~0.402, with downside skew.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2):
  • Basis (SMA20) ≈ 0.417.
  • Approx stdev ≈ 0.04 → bands ≈ [0.337, 0.497].
  • Price sits below the basis, nearer the lower half; not at extreme, so room exists both ways, but mean reversion pressure points up only if sellers exhaust—no signal yet.
• Band posture: Width moderate; no classic squeeze. The bounce off the lower band earlier (around 12/18) stalled before mid-band, showing weak reversion power.

4. Market structure, S/R, and profile

• Resistance (sell zones):
  • 0.397–0.400: Yesterday’s close and today’s intraday rejection ceiling.
  • 0.400–0.404: Prior supply; confluence with short MAs and recent failed reclaim.
  • 0.409–0.410: Mid-Dec pivot cluster.
• Support (buy zones):
  • 0.384–0.385: Intraday low cluster today; weak but visible.
  • 0.381–0.382: Dec 21 low region.
  • 0.375–0.376: Dec 25 close and 12/26 higher low—key local shelf.
  • 0.371–0.372: 12/18 swing low; major near-term line in the sand.
• Volume/POC: Recent value concentrated around 0.392 (POC region). Today’s 18:00Z red candle had notable volume, shifting control to sellers below POC.
• VWAP: Intraday/session VWAP anchored to today’s open (~0.397) sits above current price; price below VWAP confirms distribution day. Anchored VWAP from 12/18 low likely near ~0.392—also above, reinforcing overhead supply.

5. Pattern recognition and price geometry

• Bear flag: The 12/18–12/27 recovery formed a rising channel that failed below 0.400, resembling a bear flag resolving lower today.
• Double-bottom attempt: 0.371 (12/18) and 0.375 (12/25) form a nascent base, but absence of a higher high above ~0.404 negates bullish confirmation.
• Liquidity dynamics: The 18:00Z flush pushed price through intraday bids to 0.386 with heavy prints—indicative of stop runs and continuation potential toward 0.381/0.375.

6. Fibonacci reference (swing 12/08 high 0.512 → 12/18 low 0.371)

• 38.2%: ~0.425; 50%: ~0.441; 61.8%: ~0.458.
• Post-low rally never reached 38.2%—a weak corrective bounce. This underperformance argues for another test of the lows before any larger retrace.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Kumo; Span A < Span B; Tenkan < Kijun. Future cloud bearish. No bullish cross/edge-to-edge setup. Any rallies into 0.400–0.410 are likely rejected unless volume expands materially.

8. Intraday (1h) read

• Range: ~0.3982 → 0.3848 so far; net lower highs and lower lows across the session.
• 1h RSI near 40–43; room to fall before oversold.<
• Key inflection: 0.391–0.393 (micro supply, prior balance, short MAs). An ideal spot to re-enter shorts on a bounce.
• If 0.3847 breaks decisively, momentum likely carries to 0.381 then 0.375 without needing a retest first.

9. Probabilistic 24h outlook

• Bearish continuation to 0.375–0.372: 55–60%.
• Range bound chop 0.384–0.395: 25–30%.
• Bull surprise (clean reclaim >0.401 and hold >0.404): 10–15%.

10. Confluence summary (bearish)

• Under SMA10/20 and under session VWAP.
• Rejection at 0.398/0.400 with high-volume sell candle.
• Weak corrective structure (couldn’t reach 38.2% Fib).
• 1h trend down, price under 50/200h MAs.
• Value now building below 0.392 POC → lower distribution likely.

11. Trade plan (short-term tactical)

• Direction: Sell (Short Position).
• Entry: Prefer a limit sell on a bounce into 0.391 (within 0.391–0.393 supply pocket) for optimal R:R.
• Take-profit (24h window): 0.3748 (front-run the 0.375 shelf).
• Invalidation/stop (not part of output schema, but essential): 0.4015 (above 0.400–0.404 supply and the prior breakdown level). That yields a favorable R:R (~1.6–1.9x depending on fill).
• Alternate execution: If no bounce and 0.3847 breaks with momentum, a market/stop-entry short below 0.3840 can aim for 0.375, but expect more slippage.

12. Risk notes and contingencies

• Year-end liquidity is thin; wicks can be sharp. Keep size moderate; be disciplined on stops.
• Bullish invalidation: Strong reclaim >0.401 on rising volume that holds as support. In that case, the next magnet is 0.409–0.410 and possibly 0.417 (BB basis / 20D SMA). I would flip neutral there.

Bottom line

• Next 24h bias is modestly bearish with a high-probability probe into 0.380 → 0.375. Best location to engage is a fade into 0.391–0.393, targeting 0.3748. A decisive move above 0.401–0.404 would invalidate the short thesis.