ETH: Sell the Rip — Fading the 3K Rejection into 2.89k Support

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect a test of 2912 → 2890 support; odds of a breakdown toward 2860–2840 increase if 2890 fails. Intraday rallies likely capped into 2958–2965 and 2975–2985.
• Plan: Sell the rip into 2959 (limit). First objective 2892; extension 2838 if momentum accelerates (noting holiday liquidity). Invalidation on a 4h close above ~3008–3015.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and market structure Daily (swing context)

• From early Oct highs >4.5k, ETH sold off sharply through Nov, set a capitulation swing low at 2765.7 on Nov 21, rebounded to 3395–3446 (Dec 9–10), then rolled over, printing a lower low at 2827.1 on Dec 18. The sequence since mid-Dec shows lower highs and (marginal) lower lows → primary short-term downtrend inside a broader multi-month range.
• Post-Dec 18 low, price bounced to the 3050–3075 supply, failed beneath the confluence 61.8% retrace of the Dec 10 → Dec 18 decline (≈3063) and the descending trendline from Dec 10. Since then, ETH is compressing between 3050–3075 resistance and 2890–2910 support → descending triangle/range behavior.
• Current daily price (≈2930) sits below near-term moving averages and below the prior breakout shelf (≈3010–3035), supporting a sell-rallies bias for the next 24h.

4h / Hourly (execution timeframe)

• Today’s path: early Asia/Europe squeeze to 3051 (an overextension above R3), followed by persistent distribution and a monotonic fade into US hours back to 2926–2940. A series of lower highs on the 1h (3041 → 3038 → 3035 → 3031 → 3016 → 2978 → 2963 → 2941) reflects systematic supply.
• Value migrated lower intraday with VWAP above price most of the session; end-of-day liquidity is thin → spikes likely, but rallies have met prompt supply.

2. Key levels: support, resistance, liquidity

• Resistance: 2958–2965 (10D SMA proximity and today’s R1), 2975–2985 (R2 vicinity; hourly structure), 3006–3015 (R3/psych round + prior shelf), 3050–3075 (major supply + fib confluence + failed retests), 3125–3140 (50% retrace of Dec 10–18 drop), 3209–3237 (38.2% retrace zone + post-peak LHs).
• Support: 2930–2934 (S1 pivot; currently hovering), 2912–2915 (S2), 2890–2900 (multi-touch daily shelf), 2860–2840 (pre-break buffers), 2830 (Dec 18 BB lower-band vicinity), 2765–2770 (Nov capitulation low).
• Liquidity pools: Resting stops likely below 2910/2890; upside liquidity above 2960/2980 and then 3010.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 10D SMA ≈ 2955 (price below) → short-term pressure.
• 20D SMA ≈ 2997 (price below) → near-term downtrend.
• 50D SMA (approx) ≈ low-3300s (price well below) → intermediate downtrend intact.
• Hourly EMAs: Price under 20/50 hour EMAs (cluster ~2940–2980), consistent with intraday sell-the-rip behavior.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimated mid-40s (sub-50, above oversold) → momentum bearish but not exhausted; room to bleed toward 40 without a reflexive bounce.
• 1h RSI frequently cycling between 30–50 during the fade; weak bull structure. Any pop toward 60–65 on 1h likely stalls into 2958–2980 unless accompanied by strong breadth.
• MACD daily: below signal/zero or near-zero with negative histogram expansion after today’s reversal → bearish momentum reassertion.
• Stochastics: 1h/4h resetting from overbought after the morning spike; bear crossovers align with short setups into the resistance bands.

5. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) ≈ 120–150. Implies a plausible 24h range of ~±$130–$170. From 2930, that envelopes 2790–3060. Given nearby resistance and today’s heavy selling, skew is to the downside.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 2997; upper ≈ 3155; lower ≈ 2839 (approx). Price sits below midline and above the lower band → there’s room to test 2890/2840 without immediate band stress.
• Keltner Channels (20 EMA, 1.5 ATR): Price riding lower/middle channel on intraday; expansions lower often follow R3 overextension failures as seen today.

6. Volume, OBV, and microstructure

• Daily volumes receded into year-end (holiday liquidity), but today’s early pop was sold into on expanding 1–3h volumes → distribution signature.
• OBV/Accum-Distribution (intraday) tilted down from the 3035–3050 zone; repeated failures to reclaim session VWAP show sellers controlling the tape.
• Thin books increase tail risk both ways; however, repeated supply at 2958–2985 is actionable for tactical shorts.

7. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price under Tenkan (≈2960) and Kijun (≈3030), and below the cloud (Senkou A/B ~3150–3200). That is a classic bearish Ichimoku configuration, with Tenkan < Kijun slope flat-to-down → rallies into Tenkan/Kijun are short candidates.
• 4h: Price under cloud; lagging span below price → momentum remains south unless reclaimed >3008–3015.

8. Fibonacci and confluences

• Dec 10 high (3446) → Dec 18 low (2827): Retraces: 61.8% ≈ 3063 (rejected beneath at 3051 today), 50% ≈ 3137, 38.2% ≈ 3210.
• Dec 18 low (2827) → Dec 29 morning spike (3051): 38.2% pullback ≈ 2966 (sell zone); 50% ≈ 2939 (now oscillating around); 61.8% ≈ 2912 (S2 pivot). Price action respected these fibs intraday: loss of 2939 opened the path to 2912; any bounce to 2966 is a textbook short.

9. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• The bounce off 2827 appears corrective (ABC) topping around 3050–3060 (C near 0.618 retrace of Dec 10–18 decline). The subsequent intraday rejection suggests the next impulse wave targets a retest of 2890 and potentially extends toward 2840 if momentum persists.

10. Harmonic/pattern reads

• Potential bearish Gartley/Deep Crab completion aligns around 3050–3065 when measuring from the Dec 10 swing, reinforcing that area as high-probability supply. Today’s failure validates the zone.
• Descending triangle: Lower highs since 12/10 against a horizontal base 2890–2910. Repeated taps weaken support; a clean 4h close below ~2890 opens 2835/2765.

11. Pivots (classic) using 12/28 H/L/C ≈ 2957.14/2925.75/2948.57

• Pivot P ≈ 2943.82.
• R1 ≈ 2961.89; R2 ≈ 2975.21; R3 ≈ 3006.61.
• S1 ≈ 2930.50; S2 ≈ 2912.42; S3 ≈ 2881.03.
• Today: spike beyond R3 to 3051 was faded back below P and S1. Mean-reversion bias favors sells into R1/R2 with targets at S2/S3.

12. VWAPs and mean-reversion

• Session VWAP sat above price much of the US session; typical pattern post R3 blow-off → reversion below VWAP with trend continuation lower. Expect responsive sellers near VWAP re-tests (2950s–2960s).

13. Statistical bias and seasonality

• Year-end liquidity often produces extended wicks; however, the directional bias tends to persist intraday once VWAP is lost after an R3 overextension. Probability favors a drift lower-to-sideways, with sharper extension on any support break due to thin liquidity.

14. Risk management and trade structuring

• Base case (60%): Sell rallies into 2958–2965; target 2892. If 2890 cracks, allow runners to 2838–2845. ATR supports the move in 24h.
• Alternative (30%): Range hold 2910–2980. Fade both extremes; bias remains to the sell side unless >3008.
• Invalidation (10%): Strong reclaim and 4h close above 3008–3015 (prior shelf) turns the tape neutral; above 3050 flips bias to bullish squeeze targeting 3068/3137.
• Suggested stop (not part of order schema, but for context): 3008–3015 (above shelf and R3 re-entry). Risk ≈ $50–$60 vs. reward ≈ $65–$120 (R:R 1.1–2.3 depending on exit).

15. Next 24h path projection

• Primary path: Small Asia bounce to 2958–2965 sell zone → US overlap drift to S2 2912 → probe 2890. If liquidity pockets are thin, a quick extension to 2860–2840 is plausible before mean reversion.
• Less likely path: Immediate breakdown through 2910 without bounce; momentum can accelerate toward 2880–2860; expect a reflexive bounce from first test of 2860–2840 back to ~2910–2920.
• Upside risk path: If buyers reclaim 2975–2985 and hold above 3008 on a closing basis, a squeeze toward 3050–3065 can materialize; treat that as invalidation of the short idea.

Conclusion and decision

• Confluence is bearish: price below 10/20/50-day averages, beneath daily/4h Ichimoku baselines and cloud, rejection at 61.8% retrace and R3, momentum rolling over, and a clear intraday distribution from 3035–3051. Immediate supports (2912/2890) are vulnerable within the next session.
• Therefore: Sell (short) on a bounce into 2959 (limit); target 2892 into first support. Consider partials and trail if 2890 gives way toward 2838.

Note: Thin year-end liquidity can produce overshoots both ways; size appropriately and respect invalidation over 3008–3015.