ETH presses the 61.8% wall: poised for a 4,620 breakout if 4,47x holds

Executive summary and bias

• Bias over next 24 hours: Mildly bullish continuation with breakout risk above 4,518–4,540, targeting 4,580–4,620. Base case expects a shallow dip or consolidation into 4,450–4,470 that is bought.
• Rationale: Price reclaimed key moving averages and the daily Kijun/20D MA, momentum is improving, OBV/volume expansion supports accumulation, and price is pressing a strong Fibonacci confluence/resistance shelf. Intraday structure shows rising higher lows with an ascending triangle against 4,518.

Market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher time frame (daily): After topping near 4,954 (8/24), ETH sold to a capitulation low at 3,868 (9/25), then formed a series of higher lows (4,018 on 9/27, 4,141 on 9/28, 4,146 on 9/30, 4,338 intraday 10/02) and higher highs into today’s 4,517.7. That marks an emerging uptrend from the 9/25 low.
• Medium-term regime: The decline from 4,953 to 3,868 has retraced back above the 50% level and is now testing the 61.8% retracement at ~4,538. This zone is a pivotal decision area.
• Intraday (1h): From 15:00–19:00 UTC on 10/02, ETH made a sequence of higher lows (4,433 → 4,447 → 4,469 → 4,473) and a higher high (4,518), then a modest pullback to ~4,488–4,490. Pattern reads as an ascending triangle beneath resistance 4,517–4,540.

Key levels (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 4,517–4,540 (intraday high + 61.8% retracement of 8/24→9/25 drop). Above that: 4,589–4,620 (cluster from 9/17–9/18 highs and classic pivot R3 proximity), then 4,715–4,720 (9/12 high and 78.6% retracement).
• Immediate support: 4,480–4,490 (micro-bid zone); 4,467–4,470 (hourly pivot/structure); 4,441–4,452 (1h base and classic R1 from prior session); 4,382–4,410 (daily Kijun/50% short-term retrace); deeper: 4,350–4,360 then 4,298.

Moving averages and trend diagnostics

• 20D SMA ≈ 4,346 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 4,490 is > 20D by ~3.3%: bullish short-term bias.
• 50D SMA estimated ~4,440–4,460 given the Aug rally and Sep correction; price is marginally above: initial medium-term re-accumulation signal.
• 8/21 EMA stack (estimated): 8EMA ~4,37x–4,40x; 21EMA ~4,43x–4,45x. Price is above both, indicating a near-term bullish impulse.
• Ichimoku (daily, approximated): Price > Tenkan and > Kijun (Kijun ~4,38x–4,40x), and above/breaking into the cloud, shifting bias bullish. A sustained close > 4,540 would be a clear signal of trend resumption.

Momentum gauges

• Daily RSI(14) approximation ≈ 47–50: neutral-to-constructive. The heavy late-Sep losses still weigh on the average; room remains before overbought.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): 12EMA curling up toward/through 26EMA with a rising histogram. Cross/zero-line approach aligns with continuation probability.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Mid-range and rising; supports follow-through but susceptible to brief mean reversion around resistance.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily estimated ≈ 230–270. Implies a 24h expected move on the order of ±5–6% around spot; practical band 4,300–4,750 if volatility expands.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, daily): Midline ~4,346; price is above midline and below upper band (~4,700±). There is headroom for a push into upper band on a breakout.

Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing (8/24 high 4,953 → 9/25 low 3,868; range 1,085):
  • 38.2% = 4,282 (reclaimed)
  • 50% = 4,410 (reclaimed)
  • 61.8% = 4,538 (current ceiling/test)
  • 78.6% = 4,721 (next ambitious target post-breakout)
• Short-term swing (9/30 intraday low 4,125.5 → 10/02 high 4,517.7; range ~392):
  • 38.2% pullback ≈ 4,367
  • 50% ≈ 4,322
  • 61.8% ≈ 4,275 Buyers defended between 38.2–50% on today’s dip (low 4,338–4,344 area). Healthy impulse structure.

Classical pivots (10/01 as prior day; H=4,351.1, L=4,125.5, C=4,351.1)

• Pivot P ≈ 4,275.9; R1 ≈ 4,426.3; R2 ≈ 4,501.5; R3 ≈ 4,651.9. Today pierced R2 and is consolidating between R2 and R3. Next pivot resistance aligns near 4,652, close to higher target zone.

Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume surged on the rebound (10/01 ~46B; 10/02 running ~50B). Compared to the late-Sep sell days, this looks like constructive accumulation rather than short-cover-only action.
• OBV (qualitative) has been rising since 9/27, consistent with net buying pressure.

Pattern analysis

• Ascending triangle on 1h with flat top ~4,517 and rising lows from 4,433. Measured move height ~83 points targets ~4,600 on breakout, coinciding with the 4,589–4,620 resistance cluster.
• Potential inverse H&S on the daily from 9/21–9/30 with a neckline around 4,460–4,480; measured move large (to ~5,070), but within 24h the realistic tranche is the 4,58x–4,62x zone.
• Candles: 9/25 capitulation/long-body down followed by multiple accumulation days; 10/01 strong bull candle closing at high; 10/02 continuation with a test of key resistance and modest upper wick—classic pause beneath resistance.

Wyckoff lens

• 9/25 looks like a Selling Climax; AR to 4,217; ST to 4,146; Sign of Strength occurred through 4,460–4,480; current action resembles an LPS around 4,45x before a markup into 4,60x.

Probabilistic pathing (24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Brief dip/retest into 4,450–4,470, then break of 4,518–4,540. Momentum extension into 4,589–4,620 where supply reappears.
• Range case (≈30%): Rejections between 4,518–4,540 cap price; oscillation 4,450–4,520; coil for a later attempt.
• Bear case (≈15%): Failed attempts above 4,510 lead to a deeper sweep to 4,410–4,382 (Kijun/50% short-term) before stabilizing.

Risk management and execution plan

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip toward 4,46x in alignment with the intraday higher-low structure and under the ascending triangle top; alternatively, buy the confirmed breakout above 4,540 on a 1h close with a retest.
• Preferred entry: 4,468–4,470 limit; stop guidance 4,410–4,418 (below 1h structure/short-term Kijun and micro swing), take profit 4,615–4,620 (first resistance shelf). R:R ≈ 2.5–3.0 depending on stop precision.
• Breakout alternative: If no dip, consider entry on a clean 1h close > 4,540 with a retest to 4,520–4,530; target 4,615–4,652; invalidation back below 4,500–4,505 on acceptance.

What would invalidate the bullish view

• A decisive 1h/4h acceptance below 4,410 (50% short-term retrace and daily Kijun area) would suggest the rally is stalling and risk a revisit of 4,350/4,322. A daily close back below the 20D MA (~4,346) would shift the 24–72h bias to neutral/slightly bearish.

Synthesis

• Confluences supporting a long: reclaimed 20D/50D MAs, constructive RSI/MACD posture, strong volume/OBV, ascending triangle into a major Fibonacci level, and supportive classical pivots with R3 near upper target zone.
• The main friction: the 61.8% retracement at ~4,538 and obvious round-number/psychological supply near 4,500–4,550.
• Net: Favor a controlled long on a dip or a breakout-retest, targeting 4,615–4,620 within the next session, provided 4,41x holds.

Note: This is a market analysis, not financial advice. Size appropriately, consider slippage, and adapt if volatility expands beyond ATR baselines.