ETH Poised to Lose the 3,060 Shelf—Sell the Rip into 3,120–3,170, Target 3,000

Executive summary

• Bias for next 24h: Bearish continuation with risk of a weak bounce. Probability-weighted path favors a retest/sweep of 3,045–3,000 after any rally stalls near 3,110–3,175. Current price: 3,071.68.
• Optimal approach: Sell a retracement into layered resistance (3,110–3,175), targeting a move toward 3,005–3,000. Secondary trigger: momentum sell on a break below 3,044–3,040 if no bounce occurs.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure and price action

• Daily structure: A persistent series of lower highs and lower lows from mid-September through November. Major breaks: 10/10 capitulation to ~3,843, 11/03–11/04 sharp slide to ~3,293 with heavy volume, and 11/13–11/16 fresh lows toward ~3,072. The market remains below all key swing pivot highs (3,586 on 11/12, 3,656 on 11/10, 3,912 on 11/02). Bearish structure intact.
• 4H/1H structure: Since the intraday high at ~3,245 (11/16 10:00), ETH put in a clean intraday lower-high sequence: 3,245 → 3,233 → 3,172 → 3,112/3,119 → now ~3,072. The session carved a descending triangle-like base around 3,060–3,070 with repeated tests, increasing probability of a breakdown toward 3,000 if buyers fail to reclaim ~3,120–3,150 quickly.
• Key levels
  • Resistance: 3,112–3,128 (H1 Fib cluster; prior intraday supply), 3,150–3,175 (H1 50%–61.8% of last leg down; intraday breakdown origin), 3,240–3,245 (session high; value edge).
  • Support: 3,063–3,045 (11/04 low cluster and today’s trough band), 3,000 psychological, 2,980 (projected measured move), 2,930–2,900 (extension if momentum accelerates).
• Pattern read: A descending triangle on the 1H around 3,060 support; measured move targets 2,980–2,960 on a clean break. Repeated rejections from lower highs suggest seller dominance.

2. Moving averages and trend diagnostics

• Daily 20-EMA vs 50-SMA: 20-EMA below 50-SMA and both sloping down; price trading well beneath both. Bearish alignment favors selling rallies.
• 200-DMA: Likely in the ~4,000–4,200 zone, far above price; underscores bearish regime.
• Intraday EMAs (1H): Price below 20/50 EMAs; bearish ribbon with frequent rejections on tags. The 20/50 EMA band around 3,120–3,160 aligns with resistance.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (Daily): In a bearish regime (approx low-30s). Not oversold enough for a high-conviction reversal and no confirmed bullish daily divergence versus prior lows. Risk of continued grind lower with brief mean reversion pops.
• RSI (1H): Mild positive divergence attempted around 3,058–3,044 but failed to reclaim the 50-line with follow-through. This supports the idea of only shallow bounces before sellers reassert.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero with negative histogram. No confirmed bullish cross; momentum remains to the downside.
• MACD (1H): Attempts at curling up this morning stalled; latest bar rolling back under the signal line below zero—consistent with sell-the-rip conditions.
• Stochastics (1H/4H): Bearish resets on rallies; momentum quickly saturates on the downside on breakdowns, indicative of trend days.

4. Volatility and range analysis

• ATR (Daily): Elevated following early November selloffs; typical daily true range 150–250+. Next 24h expected range ~2.5–4.0% (~75–120 points either side of mid), centered below current VWAP.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price hugging/living in the lower half; mid-band overhead near 3,350–3,400 and falling. Suggests rallies likely fade before mid-band.
• Bollinger Bands (1H): Bands expanding downward after NY afternoon selloff; increased probability of trend continuation or spike-and-fade behavior.

5. Volume, VWAP, and flow context

• Distribution profile: Heavier volume on down days (11/03–11/04, 10/10) with weak-bid rebounds. Today’s heavier prints clustered near the lows rather than the highs—sign of supply absorption but not capitulation.
• Intraday VWAP: Estimated above current price (~3,140–3,160 zone given earlier trading around 3,200+, then selloff). Price below VWAP favors shorting pops to VWAP/anchored VWAP bands.
• OBV/read: No meaningful accumulation footprint; distribution bias persists.

6. Fibonacci confluences

• Intraday swing 11/16: High 3,241 → low 3,058 suggests pullback resistances: 38.2% ~3,128, 50% ~3,150, 61.8% ~3,172. Price failed to retake 38.2% into the US afternoon, reinforcing the sell zone 3,128–3,172.
• Larger swing 11/12 high 3,586 → 11/14 low ~3,072: 38.2% ~3,246 (tagged and rejected this morning); 50% ~3,329; 61.8% ~3,411. Market failing at the first retracement is textbook bearish.

7. Ichimoku

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun on daily and 4H; span A/B well above price; future cloud thick and descending. No edge for longs until at least a Tenkan/Kijun reclaim on 4H (~3,220–3,300), which is distant.

8. Market pattern synthesis

• Confluence bearish: Downtrend across timeframes, price below VWAP/EMAs, failed Fib retracements, momentum below zero, descending triangle base repeatedly tested. Buyers are defending 3,045–3,060, but every bounce is sold sooner and shallower.
• Scenario probabilities (next 24h):
  • Bearish base break to 2,990–3,000 after a minor bounce toward 3,120–3,150: ~55–60%.
  • Range hold 3,045–3,175 with chop: ~25–30%.
  • Squeeze above 3,175 toward 3,240 on thin liquidity: ~10–15% (invalidation zone for shorts sits above 3,175/3,200; stronger invalidation above ~3,245).

9. Path forecast for next 24 hours

• Most likely path: Early Asia/Europe push attempts 3,110–3,150, stalls near 3,128–3,172, then drifts lower. New York could press the 3,045–3,060 shelf; a break exposes 3,000 +/- 15. A liquidity sweep to 2,980 is plausible before a reflex pop back above 3,000.
• Expected distribution: High ~3,140–3,175 if bounce materializes; Low ~2,980–3,010 if breakdown confirms. Median ~3,050–3,080.

10. Risk management and execution

• Entry tactics: Prefer a patient “sell the rip” limit short in the 3,115–3,175 zone where multiple resistances cluster (Fib 38.2–61.8%, intraday EMA band, prior breakdown level). Alternate: momentum sell-stop below 3,040 if the shelf cracks without a bounce.
• Stop (for planning): Above 3,178–3,185 (tactical) or conservative above 3,248 (session high) if sizing small. A reclaim/hold above 3,175 would threaten the setup.
• Take profit: Core target 3,005–3,000 to capture the measured move and psychological round-number magnet while front-running deeper bids at 2,980.

Bottom line

• The downtrend remains dominant; intraday bounces are failing earlier. With confluence from MA structure, momentum, Fib retracements, VWAP, and the descending triangle base, the higher-probability play is to Sell a retracement into 3,115–3,175 and target 3,005–3,000 over the next 24 hours. A decisive reclaim and hold above ~3,175 would negate the short-term bearish view.