Step-by-Step Ethereum (ETH) Trading Analysis — Detailed Breakdown

1. Overview and Contextual Examination

• Current Price: $2635.56
• Recent High: $2877.63 (June 11)
• Recent Low: $2635.55 (current, June 12 21:00 UTC)
• Volume: Significantly heightened during the selloff today

2. Trend Analysis

• Daily Trend: A strong uptrend from mid-May led to an extended advance from ~$2500 to just below $2900, peaking on June 11.
• Intraday Trend: The past 24 hours show a sharp reversal and accelerated selling, dropping from ~$2813 to current levels, with a distinct breakdown below the short-term 5-day moving average.
• Intermediate Structure: After the rally, ETH formed an extended consolidation, followed by a rapid drop — a classic distribution/topping phase leading to a mini-crash.

3. Candlestick Patterns

• Last 24h Candles: Rapid, high-volume reds dominate, especially on hourly candles between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC: large bodies, near-close at lows — signaling strong sell-side momentum.
• Reversal Patterns: No significant hammer or bullish reversal yet; the last hourly close is at the session low, indicating sellers remain in control.

4. Volume Analysis

• Spike in Volume: The heaviest selling occurred between 19:00 and 21:00, correlating with the steepest price drop. This is indicative of capitulation or stop-loss hunting.
• Prior to Selloff: Volume had dwindled during the earlier advance, an early warning of uptrend exhaustion.

5. Support and Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance: $2780-$2815 (recent breakdown region and prior support)
• Support (Now Broken): $2715-$2735; $2695 (breached decisively in late session)
• Nearest Strong Support: $2530-$2550 (confluence from multiple daily closes and prior swing lows)
• Psychological Level: $2500 (round number anchor)

6. Moving Average Analysis (EMA/SMA)

• Short-Term MA (5/10hr): Both sharply down-sloping, price firmly below suggesting downward momentum acceleration.
• Daily 20 EMA: Estimated near $2670–2680 (recent closes and bounce points). Price just broke below this, confirming trend reversal.
• Long-Term MA (50/100d): Still sloping up, but far below at ~$2500–$2540 — room for retracement.

7. Momentum Indicators

(Estimated, as raw RSI/MACD not available, inferred from price/volume structure):

• RSI: Likely oversold on the 1h, but still >30 on 4h/daily — suggesting more downside possible or a pause before new direction is established.
• MACD: Bearish crossover likely just occurred on 4h/daily basis; histogram expanding downward.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

• From May 23 low ($2526) to recent high ($2877):
  • 38.2% Retrace: ~$2747 (level was broken)
  • 50% Retrace: ~$2700 (broken)
  • 61.8% Retrace: ~$2630 — CURRENT PRICE: potential pause point, but high risk of deeper selloff.
  • 78.6% Retrace: ~$2567
  • Full retrace/next major daily base: $2526-$2530

9. Order Book & Flow (Price Action Microstructure)

• Last Hour: Accelerating lower with little buying response, indicating little absorption from bulls. No V-shape reversal—buyers are waiting deeper.
• Gap-Like Move: The drop from $2700 to $2635 lacked meaningful bounce, reinforcing supply dominance.

10. Volatility Analytics

• ATR & Expansion: Implied volatility has increased sharply; the session saw the largest single-day percentage drop in two weeks, heightening risk for both sides.
• Wick Activity: No substantial bottom wicking seen in the latest sell candle, so liquidation likely still underway.

11. Elliott Wave Analysis

• Wave Structure: The recent advance structured as five impulse waves (classic bull), followed by an ABC-style three-leg correction, currently in the C-leg (ray down), usually not finished until volume recedes and a sharp bottom wick forms.

12. Sentiment and Positioning

• Crowded Longs: The prior run was characterized by excessive optimism, now being unwound. High volume indicates forced selling and possible margin call cascades.
• No Capitulation Wick Yet: Usually, a reversal sets in after a flush-out and dramatic intrabar reversal — not yet observed.

13. Pattern Recognition

• Double Top: High near $2877 (June 11) resembles a local double top with the failed retest at $2813 (June 12), classic sign for short-term trend exhaustion.
• Bearish Breakdown: Decisive loss of prior supports; pattern fits a topping structure.

14. Strategy Synthesis and Probabilities

• Short-Selling Likelihood: The breakdown is still fresh—momentum, trend, support loss, volume profile, and candle structure all favor continued downside in the near term. The only caveat is the approach to 61.8% retracement, where temporary bounces can occur, but lower is still more probable before strong buying emerges.
• Risk Areas: Short squeezes can happen on oversold conditions, but generally trigger near or after establishing a capitulation low, which is not yet present.

15. Trade Execution Considerations

• Entry Plan: Optimal short entry would be on a minor bounce towards $2650–$2660 (just above current), capturing retrace offers as sellers look to offload after the initial flush.
• Profit Target: Realistic first target at $2550 (major support and 78.6% retracement) — a high-probability bounce zone where buyers are likely to react.
• Stop Area: Conservative placement for those shorting above $2715, as re-entry into upper gap would indicate a failed breakdown.

16. Outlook for Next 24 Hours

• Bias: Bearish, expecting follow-through to the downside, with a brief minor bounce possible. Odds favor a test of $2550 before stabilizing.

---

Summary: All major technical indicators, structure, candle analysis, and volume profile favor downside continuation in ETH. Entry on a small bounce to $2650–$2660, targeting a move to $2550, offers the most strategic set-up. Wait for a clear sign of capitulation or reversal before flipping bias.