ETHW Breakdown Alert: Bearish Continuation Signals Target Sub-$1.36 – Strong Sell Opportunity

Comprehensive Technical Analysis of EthereumPoW (ETHW) - 2025-06-12

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily Timeframe)

Price Structure:

• Previous Major Resistance/Support:
  • The price saw a sharp impulsive rally from about $1.43 (May 26-27) peaking rapidly to $2.18 on May 26, followed by repeated swings above $1.8 in early June, before a substantial selloff.
• Recent Low:
  • During late May, the asset experienced a high at $2.26, but has consistently put in lower highs since, culminating in a steady downtrend post-June 11 after failing $1.66.
• Current Structure:
  • The collapse to the current $1.42 level marks both a fresh short-term and medium-term breakdown below notable support at $1.44-$1.45 (seen in past week lows). This move invalidates the previous higher-low structure and signals prevailing bearish momentum.

Volume Profile:

• Volume Spike and Distribution:
  • Major volume spikes coincided with high volatility between May 26-June 10. Following the high at $2.26, each subsequent bounce has been on declining volume, with June 12’s fall to $1.42 showing sustained selling pressure but no notable capitulation bottom.
• Current Volume:
  • June 12’s high relative trading volume on the breakdown suggests distribution is still occurring rather than accumulation.

2. Short-Term Trend Analysis (Intraday Hourly Data)

Price Action:

• The hourly chart shows multiple failed bounces above $1.48-$1.50. Most recent price action (June 12, 00:00 to 21:00) was a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows, culminating in a steep fade to $1.42.
• Intraday attempts to reclaim $1.48-$1.50 have failed, with increasing intensity to the downside. This blocks bullish attempts and confirms breakdown.

Intraday Volatility & Support/Resistance:

• Support:
  • Immediate support at $1.44 (recent lows) has been breached; next key level lies at $1.36-$1.38 from the May/June base. Further support at $1.30 and $1.08.
• Resistance:
  • Resistance is now firm at $1.44-$1.46, reinforced by repeated failed retests over the last 24 hours.

3. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Analysis

• Lower Highs and Lower Lows:
  • Strong sequence of descending peaks and troughs from June 10 onwards.
• Bearish Engulfing / Breakdown Candles:
  • Several large-bodied bearish hourly candles into the close, without meaningful bottoming tails, suggest additional downside.
• No Clear Reversal/Exhaustion Patterns:
  • No hammer, doji, or significant reversal patterns are evident at current levels.

4. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (EMA 20 & 50):
  • Price is firmly below where the 20-hour and 50-hour EMA would be calculated (approx. $1.44 and $1.50, respectively). This signals persistent bearish momentum.
• Daily EMA/SMA:
  • Similarly, the daily candle is printing below the 20 & 50-day moving averages, compounding bearish signals.

5. Momentum & Oscillators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • Given the size of the recent drop, RSI is likely near or just below oversold, but there is no evidence of bullish divergence. Historically, ETHW has seen further momentum selling even when near oversold.
• MACD:
  • Fast line decisively below the slow line; histogram likely widening further. No sign of bullish cross imminent.

6. Bollinger Bands & Volatility

• Price Action at Bands:
  • The price has closed repeatedly below the lower Bollinger Band on hourly and daily frames, suggesting strong volatility and downward pressure. No mean-reversion yet.

7. Order Flow / Sentiment

• No Evidence of Buy Walls or Tape Support:
  • Order book likely thin, increasing risk of further sharp downward moves unless large buyers intervene.

8. Fibonacci Retracement & Projections

• From the May swing low (~$1.35) to the June high ($2.26), the price is now well below the 61.8% retracement ($1.67), and below the 78.6% at $1.48-$1.50 -- a classic sign of full retrace and possible breakdown continuation.
• Extension targets indicate measured support at $1.36 (previous base) then $1.30 and $1.08.

9. Elliott Wave / Cyclical Analysis

• The impulsive move up (wave 3) has completed, followed by a corrective ABC with C wave likely targeting sub-$1.36.

10. Sentiment & Macro Considerations

• Selling is broad-based and unmitigated by buy pressure or consolidation. No apparent bullish news or catalyst. Broader Ethereum market is showing some weakness post-trend rallies.

---

SYNTHESIS & 24-HOUR PREDICTION

• All signals suggest further downside is likely.
• Downward momentum, lack of reversal patterns, breached support, and volume analysis all indicate ETHW remains at risk of further losses in the next 24 hours. A likely test/undercut of the $1.36 base is expected, possibly as low as $1.30 if panic sets in or sell-side volume increases further.
• Risk: Only sudden reversal intraday or out-of-nowhere positive catalyst could disrupt the bearish outlook, but there is no technical evidence for this at present.

Conclusion

Decision: Strong Sell (Short Position)

• Optimal Open (Entry) Price: $1.42 (market price or on a small bounce to $1.43)
• Target Close Price: $1.36 (first substantial support), consider trailing further to $1.30 if momentum accelerates.

A protective stop-loss should be considered above $1.46-$1.48 (prior support, now resistance), but for the purposes of this analysis, the focus remains on the high-probability sell setup.

---