EthereumPoW (ETHW) Exhibits Bottoming Signals at Critical Support—Short-Term Bounce Imminent?

Detailed Technical Analysis of EthereumPoW (ETHW) for June 14, 2025

1. Market Structure and Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend: After hitting new local highs in late April and early May with a peak just above $2.26, ETHW experienced a significant reversal and a broad downtrend with increased volatility. Across the last 30 days, the price retraced more than 30% from those highs and consolidated in the $1.35–$1.60 range.
• Short-Term Trend: The most recent pattern shows lower highs and lower lows since June’s start. The price is currently $1.4167, only marginally above its recent multi-week support of $1.33–$1.35 established on June 5–7 and retested intra-hour within this trading day.

2. Volume & Participation Analysis

• Post-Peak Capitulation: Volume spikes occurred on May 10–11 and again during sharp moves down in late May, suggesting both aggressive profit-taking and panic selling.
• Recent Volume: June’s sessions have seen a general decline in volume, with periodic bursts on price dips (e.g., June 12, June 13 at support). This is characteristic of a market searching for a bottom—seller exhaustion may be setting in.

3. Support and Resistance Zones

• Immediate Support: $1.32–$1.35 (tested June 13, June 5, and previously in December 2024). This level has repeatedly seen demand absorption.
• Immediate Resistance: $1.44–$1.46 (daily highs across June 4–10, also a former support in late May).
• Secondary Resistance: $1.50–$1.54 (failed retests on June 9, June 10, and May 31). Longer-term resistance at $1.65–$1.70 and $1.85.

4. Candle Pattern and Microstructure

• June 13 Intraday Candles:
  • Multiple long lower wicks on hourly candles between $1.33–$1.37 suggest buyers responding to intraday sell pressure.
  • However, upside momentum has been capped below $1.42–$1.44, indicating persistent resistance and short-term supply.
• Multi-Day Pattern: The past 48 hours resemble a falling wedge (bullish reversal pattern), with declining volatility and converging lows/highs.

5. Volatility and ATR (Average True Range)

• ATR (14-day): Increased in late May and started contracting in June, indicating the recent selloff may be exhausting itself and consolidation is likely.
• VIX-Like Behavior: The abrupt volume surges on support breaches, followed by quick rebounds (mean reversion), usually indicate growing probability for a short-term bounce.

6. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA)

• 50-hour Moving Average: Currently trending below the current price, at approximately $1.38 based on recent closes. Price reclaiming this on hourly closes signals potential near-term reversal.
• 200-hour Moving Average: Persistently capping rallies, lies near $1.45, aligning with the prominent resistance zone.
• Daily 20-EMA: Has flattened, supporting a neutral-to-bearish outlook, but a cross above the short-term MA would support a rally.

7. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14, Hourly): Near 36–40 most of the day, indicating slight oversold conditions but no sign of bullish divergence yet.
• MACD (Hourly): Flatlining, with histogram neutral and lines converging, shows indecision and potentially a base-forming scenario.
• Stochastic RSI: Bottomed out, with attempted curls up, suggest early buyers are testing the water but not yet in control.

8. Orderbook & Market Sentiment Proxies

• Price Rebounds from $1.33: Each deep dump near $1.33 results in a quick V-shaped reaction, signaling resting buy orders and the presence of value buyers.
• Sentiment: Social and on-chain metrics (if available) would likely indicate heightened negativity after prolonged sell-off, which is often a contrarian indicator suggesting recovery is near.

9. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Measured from May’s $2.26 high to June’s $1.33 low:
  • 23.6%: ~$1.54 (where the last failed upside rallies stalled)
  • 38.2%: ~$1.65
  • 50%: $1.79
• ETHW currently trades well below the 23.6% retracement after the steep drop.

10. Historical Price Action & Analog Analysis

• Similar patterns (sharp drawdown, then prolonged sideways base at a key support) have historically led to upside mean reversion, at least toward the first resistance cluster, especially when seller interest appears exhausted.

11. Probabilistic Scenario Forecasting (Next 24h)

• Bullish Case: Multiple failed breakdowns and lack of follow-through selling suggest a rally attempt toward $1.44–$1.46. If momentum picks up, possible extension to $1.54 (Fibonacci 23.6%).
• Bearish Case: Failure to hold $1.33 on high volume or news-driven event could open downside to $1.23, but current evidence supports buyers defending this level.

12. Integration of Signals and Synthesis

• Currently Slightly Oversold: Multi-tool convergence (RSI/StochRSI, microstructure) implies bottoming behavior.
• Strong Support with Repeated Rejections: $1.33–$1.35 is a battleground, with bulls repeatedly absorbing selloffs.
• Mean Reversion Probable: With orderflow and volume waning on dips, odds favor a short-term move back toward resistance ($1.45–$1.54).

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Final Recommendation

Position: Buy (Long)

• Probability of bounce in the next 24h is high, with strong risk/reward off the base.
• Optimal entry is slightly above current support ($1.37–$1.39) to allow for a measured dip and avoidance of spread/whipsaw execution.
• Take profit at the resistance cluster ($1.53–$1.54) where sellers are likely to reappear and/or where the trade achieves a good risk/reward (>3:1 with stop below $1.33).

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Summary Table

Indicator/Tool	Signal	Impact
Trend Analysis	Base forming	Neutral-Bullish
Volume Analysis	Seller fatigue	Bullish
Candle Patterns	Wicks @ support	Bullish
ATR/Volatility	Lowering	Bounce likely
RSI/StochRSI	Oversold	Bounce setup
MA/EMAs	Below short MA	Near-term mean rev.
Orderbook Proxy	Absorbing buys	Bullish
Fibonacci	Below 23.6% Fib	Room for up-move

Conclusion:

• A tactical long trade is favored from the current level, with an optimal entry just above recent support, targeting the resistance cluster in the next 24 hours.