Fartcoin’s Post-Crash Base: A Tactical Long Into 0.36–0.37 on Building Intraday Momentum

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish (grind higher with dip-risk). Expect retest of 0.345–0.350, extension toward 0.357–0.369 if momentum persists.
• Plan: Buy the dip toward 0.339–0.340 (hourly support/tenkan/VWAP cluster). Target 0.369 (aligns with multi-timeframe Fibonacci/supply). Invalidation if 0.331 fails on closing basis.

1. Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Higher time frame (Daily): Strong primary downtrend from early August (>1.10) culminating in a capitulation break on Oct 10 (intraday low ~0.1899). Since then, price carved a rectangular base between ~0.319–0.421 with multiple rejections above 0.41 and responsive buying around 0.319–0.333. Current price 0.3423 sits in the lower third of this range but above the absolute panic low. This is a range-trade environment within a broader downtrend.
• Intermediate structure: After failing to sustain above 0.40 on 10/26–10/27, price drifted lower into 10/31 (close 0.3194) with an intraday spike to 0.3021 that was bought (long lower wick). Today’s session (11/01) recovered into 0.342s, confirming base support responsiveness.
• Lower time frame (Hourly): Since late 10/31, higher highs and higher lows developed: ~0.319 → 0.324–0.329 → 0.333–0.338 → 0.343. A brief pullback held 0.336–0.338; a late-hour uptick pushed to 0.3438 before settling ~0.3423. This is constructive intraday momentum.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, prior closes, and intraday pivots)

• Immediate supports: 0.339–0.340 (hourly cluster); 0.3368–0.3382 (hourly higher low shelf); 0.331 (intraday pivot); 0.319–0.320 (daily range floor/10/31 close); 0.302 (10/31 intraday spike).
• Near-term resistances: 0.345–0.350 (local supply, round-figure magnet); 0.357–0.358 (38.2% retrace of 10/26 high → 10/31 low); 0.367–0.372 (dense daily supply band and 38.2% retrace of 9/29 swing → 10/10 crash); 0.382–0.384 (61.8% of the 10/26–10/31 swing and ~20D SMA area).
• Range map: 0.319–0.421 rectangle; we are currently pushing off the lower third toward midrange.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated low-to-mid 40s (post-selloff stabilization). Reading is below neutral 50 but ticking up today; room to run before overbought.
• Hourly RSI(14): ~60–65 on recent push, signaling positive but not stretched momentum; pullbacks to 45–50 zone would be buyable if structure holds.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero; histogram contraction since late October suggests waning downside momentum and potential for a bullish cross if price reclaims midrange (≥0.36–0.37) in coming sessions.
• MACD (Hourly): Above signal and zero; momentum is supportive of a continuation push into first resistance band (0.345–0.350).
• Stochastics (Hourly): Likely cycling in bull regime; expect shallow resets to support without full breakdowns if trend remains intact.

4. Trend/volatility envelopes

• 20D SMA (Daily): ~0.383, downward sloping. Price is below the mean, favoring mean-reversion bounces rather than trend continuation longs on the daily. Near-term mean-reversion target sits 0.37–0.38 if intraday momentum continues.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2): Midline ~0.383; lower band estimated high-0.20s/low-0.30s. Current price is below the mid but above lower band after a late-Oct band approach—often a favorable zone for counter-trend bounces.
• Keltner Channels (Daily): Price reconverging toward middle band after an earlier outer-band excursion on 10/31; implies short-term volatility compression and potential drift toward center (0.36–0.38) before next expansion.
• ATR(14) Daily: Compressed versus mid-October spike. Estimated ~0.03–0.04, implying a typical daily swing capacity that can accommodate a move from 0.342 to 0.362–0.382 over 1–2 sessions. For the next 24h, a 0.02–0.03 range expansion up is reasonable.

5. Volume and flow

• Post-crash, volumes normalized from the 10/10 surge. OBV-style read through late October suggests stabilization after distribution. Today’s intraday pop near 20:00 had relatively higher print vs prior hours—momentum confirmation.
• Volume profile impression of the recent range shows potential high-volume node in 0.36–0.38 and lighter acceptance in 0.345–0.355; thin zones can sometimes permit faster traversals once price gets through 0.345–0.350 supply.

6. Ichimoku lens

• Daily: Price below Kumo with Kijun likely around ~0.39–0.40 and Tenkan ~0.36. This keeps the higher-timeframe bearish, but distance from Kijun creates a mean-reversion magnet. A push to 0.36–0.38 in the next 24–72 hours is plausible if intraday structure remains constructive.
• Hourly: Price above Tenkan and Kijun, with a thin forward cloud. Pullbacks toward 0.338–0.340 (Tenkan/Kijun cluster) are favorable risk-defined entries.

7. Fibonacci confluences and targets

• 9/29 swing high (0.6604) → 10/10 capitulation low (0.1899): 38.2% retracement ≈ 0.3689. This aligns with a dense supply shelf (0.367–0.372) and is an optimal first take-profit just under 0.369 to front-run offers.
• 10/26 high (0.4209) → 10/31 low (0.3194): 38.2% ≈ 0.3582; 61.8% ≈ 0.3821. These create intermediary targets after clearing 0.350.

8. Pattern read

• Rectangle base (0.319–0.421) following a capitulation event. Current action resembles a classic post-crash mean-reversion inside a range. The 10/31 candle’s long lower wick with next-day green follow-through favors a relief leg.
• Micro: Higher-high/higher-low sequence on hourly with a mini-break above 0.341–0.343 suggests continuation toward 0.345–0.350.

9. Risk management, invalidation, and scenarios (24h)

• Base-case (55–60%): Buy-the-dip holds 0.338–0.340, grind through 0.345–0.350, test 0.357–0.358. Stretch to 0.367–0.369 if momentum broadens. This is our trading plan scenario.
• Bear/dip scenario (25–30%): Failure to hold 0.338 leads to 0.336/0.333 tests; if 0.331 breaks on rising volume, expect quick probe of 0.319; a daily close below 0.319 reopens 0.302 risk.
• Range stall (10–15%): Chop between 0.338–0.347 without decisive breakout; time decay and small rotations dominate until the US/Europe sessions re-engage liquidity.

10. Execution plan and parameters

• Entry: Buy limit near 0.339 to capture a routine pullback to hourly Tenkan/Kijun/VWAP zone. If not filled and price impulsively breaks 0.350 with volume, a secondary momentum entry can be considered intraday (not primary plan) with tighter stops and closer targets (0.357 first, then 0.369 if follow-through appears).
• Target: 0.369 (38.2% major Fib and daily supply shelf). This front-runs obvious liquidity by a few ticks.
• Invalidation (stop idea for risk control): Below 0.331 on an hourly close (beneath the intraday shelf and prior higher low), with hard stop suggested around 0.329 to avoid stop-hunts at 0.331. Risk per unit ≈ 0.010–0.011 if entry 0.339–0.340.
• Reward/Risk: From 0.339 → 0.369 is +0.030; risk to 0.329 is −0.010 → ~3:1 R:R. From 0.340, slightly under 3:1.

11. Indicator-by-indicator impact summary

• Price Action/Market Structure: Range low responsiveness + bullish hourly structure → supportive for tactical long.
• RSI/MACD: Daily bearish but improving; hourly bullish → favors 24h continuation higher.
• Bollinger/Keltner/ATR: Compression after capitulation, reversion to mean underway; 0.36–0.38 plausible; volatility sufficient to reach 0.357–0.369 in 24h.
• Ichimoku: Daily bearish bias but stretched; hourly support cluster 0.338–0.340 → good dip-buy zone.
• Fibonacci: Strong confluence at 0.369 (major 38.2%) and 0.358 (minor 38.2%) → robust targets.
• Volume/VPVR feel: Thin pocket above 0.345 to ~0.355 could accelerate once 0.345–0.350 is accepted; heavier node at 0.36–0.38 where we plan to take profits.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• With intraday momentum turning up off range-floor responsiveness and multiple confluences into 0.358–0.369, a tactical long biased toward mean reversion is favored. Risk is well-defined under 0.331. Expect a choppy stair-step higher; initial objective 0.345–0.350, then 0.357–0.358; stretch goal 0.369 within 24h if liquidity permits. Manage actively if price stalls under 0.350 with weakening breadth.