FIL poised for a reflex bounce: oversold at the shelf, eyes on 1.63–1.66 within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h outlook

• Setup: FIL is pressing a well-defined support shelf around 1.57–1.60 after a sharp post-spike mean reversion from early November’s blow-off top. Momentum is washed out on multiple oscillators, volatility has compressed, and price is hugging lower envelopes. This favors a reflexive bounce toward 1.63–1.66 in the next 24 hours unless 1.57 fails, which would open 1.55/1.46.
• Bias for next 24h: Mildly bullish (mean-reversion bounce) with tight invalidation below 1.57.

Deep-dive technical analysis and process

1. Market regime and structure

• Regime: After the 11/06–11/07 vertical spike (high ~3.88, close ~3.36) FIL unwound into a sustained downtrend, retracing to the pre-spike base in the 1.55–1.70 zone. Current action is a compression phase within a broader bearish trend.
• Structure: Since 11/20’s close (1.818) price has been making lower highs (1.818 → 1.673 → 1.64 area) and slightly lower lows (1.66 → 1.61 → 1.596), forming a descending channel/triangle against a horizontal support band near 1.57–1.60. Bearish structure but at support.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA: ≈ 1.871 (computed from last 20 closes). Price (1.596) < 20-SMA → short-term downtrend.
• 50-day SMA: Likely above 20-SMA given higher September–October prices and November spike; bearish alignment (Price < 20 < 50).
• EMAs (approx): EMA8 ≈ 1.62–1.63; EMA21 ≈ 1.80–1.85. Price below both → trend pressure remains down, but the increasing distance from EMA8 suggests near-term mean-reversion potential.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Using last 14 changes, RSI ≈ 19 (deeply oversold). This heightens bounce odds from support.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) qualitative: Close near range lows; %K likely <20. Oversold; a %K cross back above %D would be a classic long trigger.
• MACD (12,26,9): With price below short/long EMAs, MACD is negative and likely below its signal. Recent histogram contraction suggests downside momentum is waning; a small bullish cross is plausible on a bounce to ~1.63–1.66.

4. Volatility and envelopes

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band ≈ 1.871. Given recent dispersion, lower band is nearby relative to price; FIL is hugging the lower band, which often precedes mean-reversion tags toward the midline or at least a band-walk pause.
• ATR(14) (est.): ~0.08–0.10. A 1-day move of ~5–6% is typical in the current regime; intraday reach to 1.63–1.66 is feasible.

5. Volume and participation

• Volume trend: Post-spike, volumes have normalized and drifted lower recently (roughly 140–240M/day), consistent with indecision and compression at support. Falling volume into support often precedes a reactive bounce.
• OBV (qualitative): Flat-to-down since mid-November, confirming the trend but not showing aggressive distribution in the last few days.

6. Support, resistance, and pivots

• Immediate support: 1.57–1.60 (tested repeatedly 11/22–11/29). Deeper support: 1.55 (S2) then 1.46 (October pivot cluster), then 1.40 (extreme print area).
• Near resistances: 1.62–1.64 (R1/EMA8 cluster), 1.66–1.68 (R2–R3 / local swing), 1.70–1.73 (recent swing highs), 1.82 (breakdown pivot and approximate Kijun/26-period mean).
• Classic daily pivots from 11/29 OHLC (H=1.635, L=1.578, C=1.596):
  • Pivot P ≈ 1.603
  • R1 ≈ 1.628, R2 ≈ 1.661, R3 ≈ 1.686
  • S1 ≈ 1.571, S2 ≈ 1.546 These align closely with observed supply/demand and provide concrete 24h targets.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Micro swing 11/26 high 1.673 → 11/29 low 1.578:
  • 38.2% = 1.614; 61.8% = 1.637; 100% = 1.673. A typical counter-trend bounce retraces to 38–62%, i.e., 1.614–1.637; an extension to ~1.66 (R2) is achievable if momentum improves.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price < Tenkan (~1.63–1.64) and < Kijun (~1.80–1.85), below cloud → bearish regime.
• Mean reversion often targets Tenkan first; that’s consistent with a 1.63–1.64 bounce target.

9. VWAP and anchoring

• Anchored VWAP from the 11/07 spike is far above current price; however, a shorter anchor from the 11/21 dump likely sits near 1.63–1.65, matching R1/R2, implying initial supply around that zone.

10. Candles and micro price action

• 11/29: Red body with relatively balanced wicks (O=1.618, H=1.635, L=1.578, C=1.596). No classic hammer, but the lower excursion toward 1.578 and recovery to ~1.596 indicates buyers defending the shelf.

11. Pattern synthesis

• Composite read: Descending triangle/channel into support with oversold oscillators and compressing volatility. In such setups, a brief, tradeable pop to test overhead short-term MAs/pivots is common before the larger trend re-asserts.

12. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Bounce to R1/R2. Price oscillates around pivot P=1.603, breaks 1.62, tags 1.63–1.66, stalls near R2.
• Range drift (30%): Sideways 1.59–1.63, close near 1.61–1.62 as sellers fade and buyers lack follow-through.
• Bear break (15%): Clean loss of 1.57 (S1), quick run to 1.55 (S2). If liquidity pockets thin, extension to 1.52–1.50; high-probability mean reversion back to 1.57 after the stop-run.

13. Risk management and execution plan

• Trade type: Tactical mean-reversion long against 1.57 support with defined risk.
• Entry: Use a patient limit near 1.592–1.596 (around pivot and yesterday’s close). Allow for a liquidity dip to 1.585–1.590; avoid chasing breakouts through 1.63 unless you re-anchor risk.
• Profit-taking: Scale into 1.628 (R1)/1.637 (Fib 61.8%)/1.661 (R2). For a single TP, 1.665 balances reach and probability within one ATR.
• Invalidation: A decisive hourly close <1.57 increases odds of a run to 1.55; discretionary hard stop ~1.566–1.569 is prudent. That keeps a reward:risk around 1.2–1.8 depending on exact fill and TP.

Conclusion

• With RSI ~19, price at multi-touch support, pivot P ~1.603 overhead, and volatility compressed, a 24h bounce toward 1.63–1.66 is the higher-probability path. I favor a tactical Buy with a tight invalidation below 1.57 and a TP around 1.665.