FLR coiled at multi-week support: tactical long aiming for a 1.8¢ mean‑reversion pop

FLR Technical Deep Dive (multi-timeframe, indicator-rich) — next 24h game plan

1. Market context and raw structure

• Macro swing: After a September push to 2.7–2.8¢ (0.02725 on 2025-09-24), FLR sold off into October, culminating in a capitulation day on 2025-10-10 with an extreme intraday low of 1.58¢ and close at 1.96¢. Follow-through drift took price to a secondary low at 1.642–1.675¢ (2025-10-17 close 0.016752). Since then, a fragile base has formed with marginally higher closes 10/19–10/21 (0.017441 → 0.017562 → 0.017683), before slipping intraday to 0.01717 currently.
• Current location: 1.717¢ sits just above the multi-week demand band 1.67–1.70¢ and below nearby supply 1.76–1.82¢. This is the lower-third of the October value area.
• Liquidity clue: The 10/10 capitulation (volume spike 34.1M) often marks a selling climax. Subsequent volume declined, suggesting supply exhaustion, but trend inertia remains down.

2. Trend analysis (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Still down. Lower highs from the 0.0265–0.0273 cluster (9/28–10/1) and lower lows into 10/17. However, price has begun compressing sideways above 1.67¢, indicating basing.
• 4h/1h trend: Hourly data on 10/22–10/23 shows a shallow descending channel with lower highs (~1.74–1.74¢) and equal-to-marginally higher lows, forming a potential falling wedge near support — a setup that often resolves upward in the short term.

3. Moving averages (SMA/EMA ribbon)

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~2.20–2.25¢, well above spot; 50SMA: higher still. Price is below key MAs — bearish backdrop.
• 10EMA/21EMA (daily): Both above spot; however, the slope of the short EMAs has flattened after 10/17, indicating downtrend deceleration.
• Implication: Trend is negative, but proximity to support and flattening short EMAs favors a mean-reversion bounce rather than fresh momentum downside in the next 24h.

4. Momentum suite

• RSI(14) daily (est.): mid-to-high 30s after the crash; it bounced to ~40 on 10/18 then cooled. Not oversold extremes, but in a bearish regime. On 1h, RSI has tested low-30s near the current print, suggesting short-term oversold within the micro-channel.
• Stochastics (daily): Recovered from sub-20 on 10/17 toward mid-zone, now curling — consistent with a basing attempt; on 1h, nearing a cross up from oversold.
• MACD (daily): Below zero; histogram contracted after 10/17, indicating waning bearish momentum. A shallow bullish turn requires a push above ~1.78–1.82¢.
• Divergence: Price printed a lower low on 10/17 vs 10/15, but momentum indicators likely made higher lows — a weak bullish divergence consistent with the stabilization since 10/17.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.0010–0.0014 (0.10–0.14¢). After the capitulation spike, ATR is compressing — markets often mean-revert from compressed states.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Mid ~2.2¢; lower band ~1.75–1.78¢. Price oscillates at/under the lower band — classic short-term reversion zone.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/below lower KC boundary, reinforcing a bounce bias if no fresh seller trigger hits.

6. Volume/flow

• Volume: 10/10 was the high-water mark; subsequent sessions declining — a typical pattern after a sell climax. The lack of aggressive follow-through down despite lighter volume hints at seller fatigue.
• OBV (qualitative): Flatting since 10/17; no distribution surge — neutral to slightly constructive at the base.
• MFI (est.): Low-mid range, not indicating strong inflows yet; supports the idea of a modest bounce rather than a full trend reversal.

7. Market structure, levels, and patterns

• Support: 0.0167–0.0170 (recent floor), then 0.0162 (gap-to-capitulation shelf), then 0.0158 (10/10 spike low).
• Resistance: 0.01768–0.01790 (local hourly supply), 0.01815 (10/18 high), 0.0187 (23.6% Fib of 0.02725→0.01642 leg), then 0.0196–0.0203 (capitulation close and 38.2% Fib ~0.0203).
• Pattern: A potential double-bottom base (10/17 and today’s retest zone) with a neckline near 0.0181–0.0182. Measured move of that micro-structure points to ~0.0195–0.0200 if the neckline breaks. For the next 24h, a more conservative objective is a reversion to the 1.79–1.81¢ pocket.
• Channel/wedge: Short-term falling wedge on intraday data favors upside resolution if buyers defend 1.69–1.71¢.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing: 0.02725 high to 0.01642 low)

• 23.6%: ~0.0187 — first significant bounce target after a base build.
• 38.2%: ~0.0203 — stronger mean-reversion pivot; ambitious in 24h without a catalyst.
• In the immediate 24h, targeting sub-23.6% (0.0179–0.0181) is more realistic given ATR.

9. Ichimoku snapshot (daily)

• Price below cloud; Span A/B above; Conversion/Base lines likely 1.85–2.00¢ range. This reads bearish trend, but Ichimoku can lag at turning points; for a 24h trade, it mainly warns not to overstay a bounce.

10. VWAP and intraday posture

• Intraday VWAP (10/22–23 block): Price oscillated below hourly VWAP into late session; however, with price pressing support and realized volatility low, a VWAP reversion test toward 1.76–1.79¢ is a common path if sellers don’t expand range early.

11. Donchian, SAR, and mean-reversion stats

• Donchian (20d) lower bound near the 10/17 low; we’re hovering just above it — an area where breakouts down tend to be faded on first attempt if no volume expansion.
• Parabolic SAR (daily) likely above price; on 1h it should be close. A minor pop could flip 1h SAR to bullish, aiding a push into 1.78–1.81¢.
• Z-score (price vs 20D mean, est.): Around -1.5 to -2.0 — a typical bounce zone in crypto unless macro risk intensifies.

12. Elliott/Wave-type count (micro)

• From the 10/18 reaction high (0.018149), price traced an ABC down into today’s 1.71¢ area with contracting momentum — suggests the corrective leg may be maturing, favoring a minor impulse up toward 1.79–1.81¢.

13. Catalysts and correlation

• Absent token-specific news, FLR likely tracks broader alt/BTC beta. With BTC volatility recently compressing intraday, a small mean-reversion in alts is plausible. A BTC risk-off shove would invalidate quickly (watch 1.665–1.69¢).

14. Next 24h probability-weighted view

• Upside/reversion to 1.78–1.81¢: 55–60%
• Sideways chop 1.69–1.77¢: 30–35%
• Breakdown through 1.665¢ toward 1.62–1.58¢: 10–15%

Trading plan and execution

• Bias: Tactical long for a mean-reversion bounce off multi-week support; tight risk, modest target.
• Optimal entry (limit): 0.01706–0.01710 (near the mid of support band; front-run liquidity sweeps below 0.0172). Current is 0.01717; a passive bid at 0.01708 balances fill probability and risk.
• Primary take-profit (24h realistic): 0.01790–0.01810. I’ll set 0.01795 to capture the first test of local supply and ~4.9–5.1% move from entry within one ATR.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk control; not part of the output fields): 0.01664 (decisive break of the 10/17–10/20 shelf). This risks ~2.6%. Reward to risk ≈ 3.3–3.5x for TP at 0.01795.
• Optional add/scale: If a momentum break over 0.01785 occurs with volume, a small add targeting 0.01810–0.01825 can be considered; exit if VWAP rejection occurs twice.

Why Buy vs Sell now?

• For a short-term (24h) window, the confluence of: proximity to multi-touch support (1.67–1.70¢), lower Bollinger/Keltner boundaries, waning downside momentum (MACD histogram contraction), and intraday falling wedge favors a bounce. Shorting into this demand risks a whip back to VWAP/upper intraday band. The better asymmetric short would be a failed retest near 1.90–2.03¢, not here.

Conclusion

• Expect a modest relief pop within 24 hours toward 1.79–1.81¢, provided 1.665–1.690¢ holds. I choose a tactical Buy with a limit at 0.01708 and TP at 0.01795. If price instead impulsively loses 0.01664, the bounce thesis is invalidated and downside to 0.0162/0.0158 opens — but that is a lower probability in the immediate term given current flows.