FLR poised for a tactical push: buying the 0.01500 dip for a 0.0159 test

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation toward 0.0155–0.0160, with a base-case intraday range 0.0143–0.0159 and a breakout tail-risk to ~0.0162.
• Rationale: Short-term momentum has turned up (price > 7/20-D SMA, RSI ~60, constructive volume), while the medium/long-term trend remains down (price < 50-D SMA / Ichimoku cloud). Room remains to test near-term resistance at 0.01552–0.01572.
• Tactics: Buy-the-dip via limit near 0.01500 with a take-profit around 0.01590. Invalidation for the idea if daily closes back below ~0.01424.

Step-by-step technical analysis and tool-by-tool readout

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher lows sequence from the Nov 22 pivot (0.012315) to the recent pullback (0.014943) and higher highs into 0.015716 (Nov 27) indicate early bullish structure within a larger downtrend.
• Immediate resistance cluster: 0.01552 (Nov 28 intraday), 0.015716 (Nov 27 high). Support cluster: 0.01494 (Nov 28 close), 0.01424 (Nov 26 close/level confluence), 0.01362–0.01370 and deeper 0.01297/0.01231.
• Candlesticks: Nov 27 strong bullish body (expansion), Nov 28 doji/indecision just under resistance, Nov 29 small green candle—typical pause after thrust, often preceding another probe higher if resistance gives way.

2. Trend measures (SMAs/EMAs)

• 7-D SMA ≈ 0.01422; 20-D SMA ≈ 0.01411; last price 0.01507 is above both: short-term uptrend.
• 50-D SMA (not computed precisely but skewed higher by Sep–Oct prices ~0.02–0.026) remains above spot: medium-term trend still down. This combination favors countertrend rallies but warns against chasing breakouts blindly.
• EMA dynamics: Given the fast rebound from 0.0123, the 12-EMA likely curling above the 26-EMA or approaching a bullish cross; momentum window supportive over 1–3 sessions.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 60: Positive momentum without overbought conditions; room to test resistance before risk of exhaustion.
• Stochastic (fast) qualitatively in upper quartile (~75–85) after the push—can stay elevated in trend; watch for bearish cross only if price rejects 0.0157 multiple times.
• MACD: Histogram likely positive and rising as the short EMA accelerates; a fresh or pending signal-line cross would align with a near-term continuation attempt.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily roughly in the 0.0008–0.0012 zone by inspection of recent ranges. A ±1 ATR move projects 0.0141–0.0161 from current levels; this brackets the 0.0155–0.0160 resistance/target region, making it attainable in 24h if momentum persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.01411; upper ≈ near 0.0159; lower ≈ near 0.0133. Price is below the upper band with headroom—suggests scope to tag the band on continuation.
• Keltner Channels: Price migrating toward upper channel, consistent with trend-biased expansion but not yet an extreme.

5. Volume, flow, and participation

• Volume expansion on the Nov 27 thrust (strongest in recent sessions) followed by a lighter-volume pause is a constructive sequence (expansion then digestion).
• OBV (qualitative) curling higher since the 0.0123 low; no evidence of distribution near 0.015–0.0155 yet.
• MFI likely mid-to-high range but not overbought; no sell signal implied solely by flow.

6. Ichimoku framework (daily)

• Tenkan ≈ (HH9 + LL9)/2 ≈ (0.015716 + 0.012315)/2 ≈ 0.01402. Kijun ≈ (HH26 + LL26)/2 ≈ (0.016642 + 0.012315)/2 ≈ 0.01448. Price (0.01507) > Tenkan and Kijun: short-term constructive.
• Cloud (Senkou A ≈ 0.01425; Senkou B ≈ ~0.0204 from the broader 52-period extremes): price remains below the long-term cloud—longer-term bias still bearish. No full trend confirmation yet, but a favorable short-term alignment for a tactical long.

7. Donchian/Breakout context

• 20-day Donchian high recently ~0.0166 (Nov 10 high). Near-term breakout trigger sits below that at 0.01572 (Nov 27). A push through 0.01572 opens a vacuum to 0.01608/0.01624.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Using the upleg 0.01231 → 0.01572: pullback to ~0.01494 is a shallow ~19% retrace—bullish. Extension targets on a fresh impulse: 1.0x = 0.01572, 1.272x ≈ 0.01665, 1.618x ≈ 0.01780. Next 24h favors 1.0x retest and possibly approach toward 1.272x if momentum surprises positively.

9. Market profile/liquidity

• Visible high-volume node developing around 0.0149–0.0151 from repeated closes; expect dip demand near 0.01495. Liquidity pockets above are likely near 0.0155–0.0157 (stop clusters over recent highs) and then 0.0160–0.0162.

10. ADX/DI and trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX likely recovering into high-teens from low levels as trend tries to establish. +DI > -DI on most short lookbacks—supportive of continuation, though not a strong trend yet.

11. Parabolic SAR

• SAR dots likely flipped below price after the thrust; until a close under ~0.0147–0.0148 the SAR bias remains long.

12. Heikin Ashi read

• Recent Heikin Ashi candles show reduced lower wicks and rising bodies into Nov 27; Nov 28/29 contraction signals consolidation. A new HA green with small/absent lower wick would confirm re-acceleration.

13. Elliott wave framing

• A 5-wave micro impulse from 0.01231 may be in progress: (1) to ~0.01363, (2) shallow, (3) to 0.01572, (4) to 0.01494, (5) now developing. Typical wave (5) targets retest/overshoot of (3), implying 0.0157–0.0162 feasible near term.

14. Pattern diagnostics

• Rounded base/mini W-bottom from 0.0123–0.0126 into the current structure. Neckline sits ~0.0149–0.0150, now acting as support; retests are buyable while intact.

15. Risk management and path dependency

• Base-case path: Early dip toward 0.0149–0.0150 gets bought, price rotates to 0.0155–0.0157. If 0.01572 breaks cleanly on volume, extension into 0.0160–0.0162 possible within 24h.
• Bearish risk path: Failure at 0.0155–0.0157, followed by loss of 0.01494, then a slide toward 0.01424. Invalidate the long idea on a daily close below ~0.01424 (prior key pivot and MA confluence).

16. 24-hour probabilistic outlook

• Range expectation: 0.0143–0.0159 (central), with upside tail to ~0.0162 on breakout.
• Skew: Slightly positive given momentum and breadth improvements.

Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Short-term momentum up with supportive breadth; price above 7/20-D SMAs; RSI not stretched; clean nearby horizontal resistances to target with tight invalidation below 0.0149/0.01424.
• Execution: Prefer a limit buy near 0.01500 (prior close cluster and HVN) to improve R:R versus chasing into resistance.
• Profit-taking: First objective 0.01552–0.01572; ambitious target 0.0159–0.0160 within 24h if resistance breaks.
• Note: Broader trend remains down; treat as tactical swing/intraday, not a multi-week position unless higher-timeframe confirmation emerges.

Conclusion

• Signal: Buy (Long). Aim to enter on a minor pullback around 0.01500 and exit near 0.01590 within 24h if momentum persists. Monitor 0.01552/0.01572 for breakout confirmation; abandon idea on decisive break and close below ~0.01424.

Disclaimer: This is market analysis, not financial advice. Manage risk and size appropriately; crypto assets are volatile.