Flare coiling for a breakout: higher lows press into the 0.0266 supply wall

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis for FLR (next 24 hours)

1. Market state and structure

• Timeframes used: Daily (trend/levels), 4H/1H (timing). Current price: 0.0261039.
• Trend context (Daily): From the Sep 25 capitulation close at 0.023611, FLR has carved a sequence of higher lows: 0.024565 (Sep 28), 0.025078 (Sep 30), and today’s 1H intraday lows around 0.02528–0.02530. Highs are also rising, with supply sitting between 0.02635–0.02665 (prior closes/highs Sep 28–29). Structure favors a mild uptrend within a broader range below the Sep 24 spike high (0.02847).
• Intraday structure (1H): Gentle stair-step higher: successive hourly closes rising from ~0.02530 to ~0.02610 with shallow pullbacks. The last hours show higher highs and higher lows; buyers are defending ~0.02530–0.02545.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Immediate resistance: 0.02635 (Sep 28 close) → 0.02646 (Sep 28 high) → 0.02663–0.02665 (Sep 29 high / 61.8% Fib from 0.02361→0.02847).
• Near-term resistances above: 0.02725 (Sep 24 close) and 0.02847 (Sep 24 high).
• Immediate support: 0.02570–0.02575 (today’s intraday shelf). Deeper: 0.02530–0.02545 (intraday cluster/VWAP reversion zone), then 0.02508 (Sep 30 low), 0.02456 (Sep 28 low), 0.02361 (Sep 25 washout).

3. Moving averages

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~0.02444. Price > 20SMA, momentum-positive and supportive pullbacks toward mid-0.025s.
• Daily 50SMA (approx): trending in the low-to-mid 0.023s; price > 50SMA → medium-term bullish bias.
• 1H EMAs: Short EMAs have fanned upward; pullbacks to the 1H 20/50 EMA have been bought around 0.0254–0.0257.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): mid-to-high 50s, neither overbought nor weak—room to the upside before hitting overbought bands.
• 1H RSI: trending upward in the 55–65 band, consistent with a controlled uptrend and potential continuation.
• Stochastics (1H): Not extreme; suggestive of further upside swing potential before exhaustion.

5. MACD (trend-momentum)

• Daily MACD: Bullish crossover after the Sep 25 low with a modestly positive histogram—momentum improving but not euphoric.
• 1H MACD: Positive and rising through the session; histogram expansion aligns with the recent push to 0.02610.

6. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• 20D basis ~0.02444; estimated upper band ~0.0280 (given recent vol). Price at 0.0261 sits below the upper band, leaving headroom for a push into 0.027–0.028.

7. Ichimoku (signal overview)

• Daily: Price above Tenkan (est. ~0.0252) and Kijun (est. ~0.0240); cloud likely below price. Bullish configuration with cloud support on dips.
• 1H: Price above the cloud with Tenkan > Kijun; lagging span not diverging bearishly. Supports trend-following long bias on pullbacks.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing range: Low 0.02361 (Sep 25) → High 0.02847 (Sep 24). Key retracement levels measured from the low upward:
  • 50%: 0.02604 (just reclaimed—now turned into support);
  • 61.8%: 0.02661 (first major resistance ahead);
  • 78.6%: 0.02743 (secondary resistance near the Sep 24 close 0.02725 zone).
• Intraday impulse (today): 0.02527 → 0.02610 = 0.00083. 1.272 extension = 0.02610 + 1.272*0.00083 ≈ 0.02716; 1.618 ≈ 0.02744. These align with the 78.6% retrace and daily resistance cluster → high-confidence confluence for a 0.0271–0.0274 target area.

9. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Post-spike normalization: After the Sep 24–26 surge in volume (49M/26M/23M), activity normalized to ~9–12M/day; today’s running total (~10.5M) suggests decent participation for a continuation day.
• OBV on lower timeframes appears to be trending up, consistent with accumulation rather than distribution into strength.

10. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.0011–0.0014. A typical 24h move from 0.0261 implies upside room toward ~0.0272–0.0275 or downside risk toward ~0.0248–0.0250. The upside ATR aligns with our fib and resistance projections.

11. Pattern recognition

• Ascending triangle on 1H/4H: Flat-to-gently rising ceiling 0.02635–0.02665; higher lows from 0.02508 → 0.02530+ → 0.02570+. Measured move from triangle height (~0.0266 top – ~0.0251 base ≈ 0.0015) targets ~0.0281 on breakout—near daily upper band and the Sep 24 wick zone. Probabilistic edge favors a test of 0.0266 and an attempt at breakout within 24h.

12. Elliott wave framing (near-term)

• From 0.02361: Wave 1 to ~0.02578, Wave 2 to 0.02508, Wave 3 to ~0.02645, Wave 4 down to ~0.02527, Wave 5 in progress targeting 1.272–1.618 extensions (0.0271–0.0274), which coincides with resistance confluence. This suggests upside completion region before a larger pullback.

13. Market profile / value zones (composite from recent days)

• Visible acceptance around 0.0253–0.0256 (value area/POC zone post-drop). Reversions into this pocket have attracted buyers. Optimal risk-adjusted entries tend to be within this band on pullback.

14. VWAP and intraday microstructure

• Today’s trend above session VWAP with shallow dips indicates buyers in control. Any fade toward 0.0255–0.0257 that stabilizes above VWAP is likely to be bought. A sustained hold above 0.0260 builds energy for a 0.0266 probe.

15. Probability-weighted 24h scenarios

• Base case (≈55–60%): Grind higher into 0.02635–0.02665, partial breakout attempts; intraday extensions tag 0.0269–0.0273; day closes near 0.0266–0.0270.
• Bull case (≈25%): Clean breakout over 0.02665 with momentum carry to 0.0274–0.0280; wicks into 0.0281 possible if liquidity thin.
• Bear/invalidity case (≈15–20%): Failure at 0.02635/0.0266 leads to mean-reversion into 0.0255–0.0253; deeper risk if 0.02508 breaks (opens 0.02456).

16. Synthesis and trade logic

• Confluences to the upside: Price > 20/50 SMAs; positive daily/1H MACD; rising 1H RSI; ascending triangle; reclaimed 50% Fib (0.02604) with 0.02661 (61.8%) the next logical magnet; intraday fib extensions cluster around 0.0271–0.0274.
• Optimal execution: Favor a buy-the-dip into 0.0255–0.0257 (value area, 1H EMA support), with a take-profit set just ahead of 0.0272 resistance to capitalize on the expected 1.272 extension while front-running sellers below 0.02725/0.02743.
• Risk framing (for context): A prudent stop (not requested but recommended) would sit below 0.02505 (Sep 30 low), which invalidates the higher-low sequence and triangle integrity. Risk ≈ 0.00057 vs reward ≈ 0.00158 → R:R ≈ 2.8.

Conclusion / 24h outlook

• Bias: Moderately bullish continuation with a breakout attempt likely. Expect tests of 0.02635 → 0.02661 and overshoots toward 0.0271–0.0273. Dips toward 0.0255–0.0256 are opportunities to position long in anticipation of that move.