FTT: Buy the 0.883 Pivot for a Push Toward 0.919 in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary:

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a 0.872–0.915 range, with an upside skew if 0.883 holds.
• Plan: Buy the dip near the daily pivot/50% Fib at ~0.883; target the upper range 0.915–0.922. Invalidation on an hourly close <0.868.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Since the 10/10 capitulation wick to ~0.623, price formed higher lows (0.785–0.791 on 10/18–10/20, then 0.827 on 10/24) and marginally higher highs (0.917 on 10/16, 0.939 on 10/24). That’s a constructive short-term uptrend inside a broader, choppy regime.
• 4H/1H structure: The last 24 hours carved a balanced range: 0.868–0.903. Today’s late-hour probe to 0.903 was rejected, but price is back to midrange (~0.886), not breaking down—classic range behavior.
• Key horizontal levels (derived from recent swing pivots and closes): • Support: 0.872–0.883 (hourly mid, daily pivot), then 0.857/0.855 (Aug 25 close), 0.841, and 0.819. • Resistance: 0.903–0.905 (intraday cap), 0.924–0.929 (multi-day supply), 0.939–0.941 (10/24 high/R1), then 0.965–0.980.

2. Moving averages (trend filter)

• Daily SMA(20) ≈ 0.81 (approximate from last 20 closes). Current 0.886 > SMA(20): bullish short-term bias.
• Daily SMA(50) (approximate) ≈ 0.89–0.90. Price is hovering near/just below it. That often creates whipsaw but also serves as a magnet; reclaiming/holding above tends to open 0.92–0.94.
• 1H EMAs (estimative): EMA(21) ~0.886, EMA(50) ~0.883. Price is oscillating right around them—sign of balance with upward tilt if 0.883 continues to act as dynamic support.

3. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): mid-50s to low-60s. Not overbought; room to push to ~0.92–0.94 without momentum exhaustion.
• 1H RSI(14): neutral (~45–55). Micro pullbacks are being absorbed near VWAP/pivot; momentum not stretched.
• MACD (daily): Bullish cross from the 0.78–0.94 leg; histogram flattening but still positive—signals consolidation within an up-bias.
• MACD (1H): Slightly negative after the 0.903 rejection, but shallow—typical of range oscillation, easily flipping positive on a push >0.895–0.900.
• Stochastics (1H): Mid-range; supports a buy-the-dip approach rather than chasing at the top of the band.

4. Volatility and expected range

• Daily ATR(14) (robustly adjusted for the 10/10 outlier): ≈ 0.055. Implies a typical day’s swing ~±0.05 from mid.
• 1H ATR: ~0.006–0.009. With today’s realized range ~0.035, a revisit to 0.895–0.905 or 0.875–0.878 is plausible intraday.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Basis ~0.81, upper ~0.97, lower ~0.65 (broad due to recent volatility). Price is in the upper half yet not near the upper band—there’s upside room before statistical stretch.
• Bollinger Bands (1H): Bandwidth contracted over the session; a modest expansion is likely next—direction favored upward if mid-band (0.886) holds.

5. Ichimoku (directional context)

• Daily Tenkan likely ~0.87–0.88; Kijun ~0.83–0.85. Price above Tenkan/Kijun stack is typically constructive; a hold above Tenkan (≈0.88) supports continuation toward 0.91–0.92. Cloud thickness ahead is moderate; not a brick wall until ~0.94.

6. Volume/flow

• Volume spikes on 9/19, 9/24, 10/15–10/24 marked impulsive legs; the latest upswing into 0.94 occurred on rising volume—constructive. Today’s intraday volume was moderate; the late spike failed to extend, consistent with range balance rather than trend reversal.
• OBV (qualitative): Stable to slightly rising since 10/22, confirming accumulation on dips.
• VWAP (session): ~0.885–0.888. Price is toggling around VWAP—mean-reverting. Holds above VWAP bias long scalps; durable breaks below VWAP would warn of a deeper rotation to 0.872/0.868.

7. Fibonacci and confluence

• 10/24 swing low/high: 0.82693 → 0.93916 (range ≈ 0.11223). • 38.2% retrace: 0.8963 • 50% retrace: 0.8830 • 61.8% retrace: 0.8698
• Current price (~0.8866) sits between 50% and 38.2%, with repeated responses around the 50% at 0.883. This creates a high-confluence dip-buy zone at 0.882–0.885.

8. Classic pivots (using 10/24 H/L/C: 0.9392/0.8269/0.8861)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.8841; S1 ≈ 0.8290; R1 ≈ 0.9412; R2 ≈ 0.9963.
• Today’s action oscillated around P; closing above P (and holding it) tilts odds to a drift toward R1 cluster 0.939/0.941 in coming sessions. For the next 24h, the nearer magnet is 0.903–0.915.

9. Order blocks, liquidity, and Wyckoff read

• Visible demand block: 0.880–0.883 (overlapping 50% Fib, pivot, 1H EMA cluster). Expect buy programs to defend first tests.
• Liquidity pockets: resting stops likely below 0.872/0.868 (prior session low and 61.8% Fib). A brief undercut and reclaim would be a bullish “spring.”
• Wyckoff lens: Post-10/10 “spring,” the structure resembles Phase D with higher lows and successful tests of support. Today’s balanced day fits a consolidation before the next mark-up attempt.

10. Regression/mean-reversion

• Z-score vs daily BB basis: (0.8866 – 0.8096)/~0.08 ≈ +0.96σ; not stretched. Mean reversion risk is modest; momentum still has room.

11. ADX and trend strength

• Daily ADX rising into the high teens/low 20s (approx). That’s early-trend or strengthening-range territory—enough thrust for 0.91–0.92 without screaming trend exhaustion.

12. Risk scenarios and path probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 0.882–0.885, rotate upward to 0.900–0.905, extend to 0.912–0.918 by session end if 0.903 breaks cleanly.
• Range/chop (≈30%): Ping-pong between 0.878 and 0.903, VWAP-centric mean reversion; net close ~0.888–0.898.
• Bear break (≈10%): Lose 0.878 → quick tag 0.872/0.869 (61.8% Fib). Only on sustained sub-0.868 hourly closes does 0.857–0.855 open.

13. Trade plan and execution

• Rationale to Buy: Multi-signal confluence at 0.882–0.885 (50% Fib, daily pivot P=0.884, 1H EMA support, VWAP zone) with daily trend filters supportive (price > SMA20, near SMA50). Upside magnets 0.903 then 0.912–0.919.
• Entry: Staggered limit buy 0.8825–0.8850. Given current 0.8866, a patient bid at 0.883 is optimal; otherwise, alternative momentum add above 0.904 on breakout (not the primary entry).
• Stop (discretionary, not part of output fields): 0.8684 (below 61.8% Fib and today’s liquidity shelf). Rough risk ~1.6–1.9% from entry 0.883–0.885.
• Target (next 24h): 0.918–0.922 (first take-profit), with stretch to 0.929 if momentum accelerates. Risk/reward ≈ 2.0–2.8R to first target.
• Management: If price tags 0.903 and stalls, trail to breakeven; partial at 0.903–0.905, hold runner for 0.915–0.922.

14. What invalidates

• An hourly close <0.868 and failure to reclaim on the next bar turns bias neutral-to-bearish toward 0.857/0.855.

Bottom line:

• The confluence at ~0.883 is strong. Expect a buyable dip and a push toward 0.915–0.922 within 24 hours, barring a clean breakdown below 0.868.