FTT coils above pivots: primed for a push toward $0.65 as dip buyers defend $0.62

Summary view

• Timeframe assessed: Daily (Sep 14–Dec 12) plus intraday hourly for Dec 12. Current price: $0.628229.
• Context: After a late-Nov capitulation to ~$0.52–0.60, FTT rebounded early Dec to ~$0.76, then consolidated in a tightening range ($0.61–$0.64) with supportive dips being bought. Short-term momentum modestly bullish; higher-timeframe still below major MAs.

1. Trend, moving averages, and regime analysis

• 10/20/50 SMAs (daily): • 20D SMA ≈ 0.606 (computed from last 20 closes).
  • 10D SMA ≈ 0.616 (last 10 closes).
  • 50D SMA qualitatively > current price (trend was 0.75–0.90 through Oct before sliding).
  Signal: Short-term trend positive (price > 10SMA > 20SMA), but longer-term regime remains bearish (price < 50SMA). This typically supports mean-reversion up within a broader downtrend unless a breakout reclaims the 50SMA soon.
• EMAs and ribbon: A rising 9–12 EMA cluster sits around ~$0.623–$0.626 (intraday interactions show pullbacks finding bids there). Bullish microstructure.
• Linear regression channel (past 14 sessions): Upward slope; price oscillates around the midline near $0.628 with upper rail near $0.646–0.650 and lower rail near $0.612–0.615.

2. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 52 (calculated from last 15 closes). Neutral to slightly bullish; room to rise before overbought.
• Stochastics (intraday 14-period, approximated off hourlies): in the 60–75 zone and rising after a 16:00 UTC flush to $0.609 was bought; suggests momentum rebuilding but not overextended.
• MACD (12/26/9) daily: Histogram mildly positive; MACD line hovering around the zero-line after turning up post-Dec 1 rebound. Not a strong impulse yet, but constructive for continuation higher toward resistance.
• ADX(14): Low-to-moderate (≈ 18–22 by estimation). Trend strength is improving but still modest; range-with-bullish-tilt conditions.

3. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily estimated ≈ $0.055 (recent true ranges include 0.03–0.17 spikes; the Dec 5–6 surge inflated ATR). Expect a 24h band of roughly $0.61–$0.66 around today’s close, absent news.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle ≈ $0.606; estimated upper ≈ $0.686 and lower ≈ $0.526. Price currently between mid-band and upper band, consistent with a mid-uptrend consolidation.
• Keltner Channels (20 EMA, 1.5×ATR): Mid ≈ $0.606; upper ≈ $0.689; lower ≈ $0.523. Bands corroborate the BB view; plenty of headroom before statistically stretched on the upside.

4. Market structure: support/resistance, pivots, and fibs

• Key horizontal supports:
  • $0.606–0.612: Multiple closes and intraday reactions; buyers defended the 16:00 UTC dip at $0.6089 today.
  • $0.597: Nov 30 close.
  • $0.523–0.515: Dec 1 capitulation zone (major swing low).
• Key resistances:
  • $0.637–0.642: Repeated intraday highs and 50% fib confluence (see below).
  • $0.650–0.653: Supply shelf; prior failed pushes.
  • $0.669–0.672: 61.8% fib and recent reaction high cluster.
  • $0.681–0.686: Band/upper-channel proximity.
• Classic daily pivots (using Dec 11 H/L/C: 0.6524/0.6049/0.6279):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.6284 (today’s price is hugging P).
  • R1 ≈ 0.6519; R2 ≈ 0.6759.
  • S1 ≈ 0.6044; S2 ≈ 0.5810.
  These levels align neatly with the observed S/R map. R1 at ~$0.652 aligns with the next overhead objective; S1 matches the defended $0.604–0.612 zone.
• Fibonacci retracement (swing: Dec 1 low 0.5151 to Dec 6 high 0.7642):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.610 (current support cluster).
  • 50% ≈ 0.640 (local cap).
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.669 (next upside magnet on breakout).
  The current coil sits between 38.2% and 50%, a frequent staging area before a probe to 61.8% if bulls retain control.

5. Pattern diagnostics

• Potential inverse H&S on daily since Nov 30:
  • Left shoulder near $0.597, head at $0.515, right shoulder ~$0.606.
  • Neckline ~ $0.642.
  • Break/hold above $0.642 would imply a measured move toward ~$0.76 (consistent with the Dec 6 spike), but confirmation requires decisive close above neckline—likely outside a 24h conservative target unless momentum expands.
• Bull flag / ascending channel since Dec 1: Higher lows, capped by $0.64 area; volume deceleration suggests a coiled spring rather than exhaustion.
• Candle behavior today (hourly): A deep 16:00 UTC lower wick to $0.609, then recoveries to $0.618–$0.627, indicates responsive dip buying at the EMA cluster/support shelf.

6. Volume and flow

• Volume surges on advances (Dec 5–6) and lighter on recent pullbacks—textbook accumulation behavior.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending up since Dec 1.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Price oscillated around VWAP near ~$0.625–$0.626, closing marginally above—bullish micro edge into the next session.

7. Secondary toolset checks

• Parabolic SAR (daily) likely flipped below price around $0.614–$0.618; trend-follow signal supportive of longs until a close < $0.612.
• Ichimoku (daily approximation): Price sitting slightly above Tenkan and near Kijun; cloud flat to slightly rising around $0.62–$0.63. A push above $0.640 would shift cloud bias more clearly bullish; failure back below $0.612 risks a test of the cloud base.
• CCI(20) and MFI: Near neutral-to-slightly positive; neither shows bearish divergence.

8. Scenario, probabilities, and 24h path projection

• Base case (55%): Bullish drift/range expansion toward $0.640–$0.652. Drivers: rising short MAs, dip buying at $0.61–$0.62, RSI ~52, price above VWAP and pivot P, with R1 at ~$0.652 as magnet.
• Bull extension (25%): Break-and-hold above $0.652 opens a probe toward $0.669 (61.8% fib) on expanding volume. Requires momentum follow-through; achievable but less likely within 24h without catalyst.
• Bear risk (20%): Failure at $0.640 leads to another test of $0.612–$0.606; if liquidity sweeps sub-$0.606, S1 ~$0.604 and then $0.597 may tag before reversion. Structure remains intact unless daily close < $0.597.

9. Trade plan logic (tactical)

• Edge: Buy-the-dip into the rising EMA/pivot cluster ($0.621–$0.624) targeting the pivot R1 confluence $0.650–$0.652 within the next 24h. This aligns with ATR and avoids requiring a full breakout to 61.8% fib.
• Rationale alignment:
  • Price > 10/20 SMA with supportive intraday wicks.
  • Pivot confluence (P ≈ current, R1 ≈ $0.652) offers a clean target.
  • Fib (50% at ~$0.640) is the first hurdle; once reclaimed intraday, the path to $0.650–$0.652 is typical.
• Risk notes (not part of order output): A sensible stop for risk control would sit below $0.606–$0.604 (S1), acknowledging ATR. For sizing, position such that a ~$0.018–$0.020 adverse move is tolerable.

Conclusion: Short-term bullish bias within a larger basing process. Favor a tactical long on a controlled pullback with take-profit set just under the $0.652 pivot resistance.

24-hour price prediction: $0.615–$0.652 range most likely, with intraday spikes possible to $0.656 on momentum and downside sweeps to ~$0.612 if liquidity hunts occur. Bias: upward toward $0.648–$0.652.