HBAR Poised for a Weekend Relief Rally: Double-Bottom Base Targets 0.23

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish, expecting a mean-reversion bounce toward 0.228–0.231 if 0.216–0.218 support holds.
• Context: After a July peak near 0.305, HBAR has been in a controlled downtrend, but the last week shows basing behavior above 0.213–0.214 with improving intraday momentum.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily):
  • July 27 swing high: ~0.3046; Sep 1 swing low: ~0.2115. Price has retraced ~72% of the July rally and is consolidating near the lower end of the summer range.
  • Sequence since late July: clear lower highs and lower lows, but the last few sessions show a potential double-bottom/accumulation shelf at 0.213–0.214 (Sep 1 close 0.2141, Sep 4 close 0.2137) with today’s push back to ~0.2203.
  • Candles: Sep 4 printed a weak close near the lows; today (Sep 5) is a constructive green day reclaiming the prior breakdown zone, suggesting demand reappeared into the 0.213–0.216 pocket.
• Intraday (hourly) microstructure:
  • Sessions: 0.2127 early Fri → grind up to 0.2238 → pullback to 0.2169 → recovery to 0.2203. The 0.2167–0.2179 area acted as intraday demand; 0.2235–0.224 caps supply.
  • The hour that failed at 0.2238 drew in sellers, but the subsequent higher low at 0.2169, followed by a reclaim of 0.219–0.220, favors a continuation attempt if 0.218–0.219 is defended.

2. Key support and resistance (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 0.2238 (today’s intraday high), then 0.2259 (Aug 30 close), 0.228–0.229, 0.231–0.2335 (23.6% Fib), 0.239–0.241 (daily supply/volume node), 0.247–0.248 (38.2% Fib + prior pivot), 0.258–0.259 (50% Fib / round).
• Immediate support: 0.2189 (Aug 31 close), 0.2167–0.2179 (today’s intraday demand), 0.2140–0.2145 (Sep 1 close), 0.2112–0.2116 (recent daily low). A loss of 0.213 increases risk of a downside extension toward 0.206–0.208 and 0.197–0.200.

3. Trend tools (moving averages)

• Daily 20SMA ≈ 0.235 (estimate from last 20 closes). Price ~6–7% below the 20SMA → short-term downtrend but extended to the downside. Mean-reversion room toward 0.233–0.236.
• Daily 50SMA (est.) ≈ 0.245–0.250 based on July/August averages → medium-term trend still down with significant resistance above 0.24–0.25.
• Hourly 20EMA/50EMA: Price reclaimed short EMAs intraday; 20/50 cross on 1h is close to flipping bullish if price holds above ~0.219–0.220 for several candles. Interpretation: Trend is bearish on daily, neutral-to-turning-up on 1h, favoring a tactical bounce rather than a trend reversal call.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): mid-to-high 30s earlier this week, lifting toward low-40s today. This reflects easing downside momentum and potential for further upside before overbought conditions.
• Hourly RSI: recovered from sub-40 to mid-50s; pullback held above 40 on the dip to 0.2169 → constructive for continuation attempts.
• MACD (daily): Below zero but histogram contraction (less negative) suggests bearish momentum is fading. A shallow bullish cross is plausible next week if price reclaims 0.228–0.233.
• Stoch RSI (1h): Crossed up from oversold during the 0.2169 bounce; as long as it stays above midline on pullbacks, it supports buying dips. Interpretation: Oscillators imply a short-term relief bounce within a broader downtrend.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Middle band ≈ 0.235; lower band ≈ 0.211–0.212 (est.). Price tagged/approached the lower band and is curling up → typical mean-reversion setup toward the mid-band (0.233–0.236).
• Keltner Channels (daily): Price near/below lower KC earlier; re-entry into the channel statistically favors a drift back toward the EMA basis in the next 1–3 sessions.
• ATR(14) daily: ~0.010–0.011 (4–5%). A +1x ATR move from 0.219–0.220 targets 0.229–0.231, aligning with resistance. Interpretation: Room for a 1x ATR pop aligns with the 0.229–0.231 objective in 24h if bids persist.

6. Volume, flow, and confirmation

• Daily volume: Stabilizing around 190–330M recently; today’s run-rate (~238M at 21:00Z) is in line with recent averages. No exhaustion spike but enough participation to support a grind higher.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative): Up bars on the hourly were accompanied by modestly better volume than down bars, indicating mild accumulation. No distribution climax detected near 0.223–0.224 yet. Interpretation: Flow is neutral-to-constructive; not a breakout profile, but supportive of a controlled rebound.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan likely below Kijun with a thin, descending future cloud. This keeps the higher timeframe bearish bias intact, but a Tenkan reclaim (near 0.223–0.225) would be a first step toward stabilization.
• Hourly: Price attempting to hold above the Tenkan and challenge the Kijun; a hold above 0.220–0.221 for several hours could tilt the hourly cloud bullish. Interpretation: Intraday cloud is improving; daily cloud still a headwind above 0.235–0.24.

8. Fibonacci mapping (Jul 27 high 0.3046 → Sep 1 low 0.2115)

• 23.6%: ~0.2335
• 38.2%: ~0.2471
• 50%: ~0.2581
• 61.8%: ~0.2691 Price is below 23.6% → a weak retrace so far. The first meaningful reclaim would be a daily close above ~0.233–0.234. For the next 24h, a push into 0.229–0.231 is feasible (pre-23.6% test).

9. Patterns and setups

• Potential double-bottom on daily at ~0.214 with a neckline around 0.223–0.225. A break/hold above 0.225 would measure toward ~0.233–0.236.
• Possible falling wedge from mid-August highs with a recent lower-bound tag; wedges often resolve upward with gradual, overlapping price action, consistent with a grind to 0.229–0.233.
• Wyckoff lens: Accumulation attempt with preliminary support (0.218–0.219), potential spring/shakeout near 0.211–0.214 earlier this week, and a test today. Needs a sign of strength (SoS) through 0.225 to validate.

10. Regression/mean-reversion and seasonality

• A linear regression channel from Aug 22 shows price hugging the lower band; revert-to-mean favors a climb toward the center line in the low 0.23s.
• Weekend liquidity caveat: Saturdays can exhibit thinner books; breaks can overshoot levels. That can help reach 0.229–0.231 if buy programs push, but also increases wick risk below 0.218 on failed attempts.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold 0.216–0.219, push to 0.2238, break into 0.225–0.229, partial stall around 0.229–0.231. Close in the 0.227–0.231 region.
• Range/noise (25%): Chop 0.216–0.224, fail to sustain above 0.2238, end near 0.219–0.222.
• Bear extension (20%): Lose 0.2167 → 0.214 test; loss of 0.213 opens 0.206–0.208. This invalidates the bounce thesis.

12. Trade plan logic and risk

• Rationale to be long: Price near daily lower Bollinger/Keltner, hourly momentum turning up, basing above 0.213–0.214 with a fresh higher low at 0.2169, and a clear upside magnet at 0.229–0.231 (~1x ATR) before major resistance.
• Invalidation: A clean hourly close below 0.213–0.214 would negate the double-bottom and favor a slide toward 0.206–0.208.
• Risk/Reward (illustrative): Entry 0.219, TP 0.2298 (+0.0108), protective stop conceptually 0.2128 (−0.0062) → ~1.7R. Not a home-run but appropriate for a countertrend mean-reversion swing.

13. Additional notes

• A daily close above 0.233–0.234 would upgrade the outlook into next week, opening 0.239–0.241 and 0.247–0.248. For the next 24h, 0.229–0.231 is the more realistic cap.
• Watch the reaction on any retest of 0.2238 and 0.2259; strong acceptance there confirms buyers in control.

Conclusion Given proximity to support, improving hourly momentum, and mean-reversion potential toward the daily 20SMA zone, the tactical bias is Buy for a 24h bounce into 0.229–0.231, provided 0.216–0.218 holds. A break under 0.213 invalidates the setup.