HNT: Short the Bounce Into 2.30–2.33 as Head & Shoulders Targets 2.19

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for HNT/USD over the last 90 days and the most recent 24 hours, with a 24-hour forward outlook.

1. Market structure and trend context (daily)

• Primary structure: After peaking near 3.10 in early August, HNT trended lower into mid-October (~1.85 on Oct 18), then staged a strong countertrend rally into Oct 31 (~2.466). Since then, price has pulled back into early November.
• Higher highs/higher lows (since Oct 18): Higher highs: 2.422 (Oct 28) → 2.466 (Oct 31). Higher lows: 1.85 (Oct 18) → 2.10–2.12 (Oct 10-16 zone reclaimed). The pullback to 2.24–2.28 is testing whether the sequence can hold. A daily close below ~2.22–2.24 would jeopardize the short-term uptrend.
• Key horizontal levels (daily): • Resistance: 2.42–2.45 (recent supply from Oct 28–31), then 2.50–2.60, and 2.69. • Support: 2.24–2.26 (tested Nov 3 08:00 UTC), 2.20–2.21 (pivot/S2 cluster), 2.16–2.12 (50–61.8% retrace area), and 1.85 swing low.

2. Moving averages and trend health

• 20-day SMA ≈ 2.13 (approx). Price at 2.28 remains above the 20SMA, indicating the pullback is, so far, within an early upturn context.
• 50-day SMA ≈ ~2.45 (est.). Price trades below the 50SMA, keeping the medium-term trend biased lower and making the 2.42–2.45 band formidable resistance.
• 200-day SMA (not fully sampled) likely well above current price given summer prices; longer-term trend remains down.
• EMAs (daily) qualitative read: 9EMA is rolling over from ~2.35–2.38; price is below 9EMA and near 21EMA/26 baseline equivalents. This suggests momentum cooled and the pullback may extend unless price reclaims the 9EMA quickly.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): Previously pressed into high 60s–low 70s on the rally; with today’s drop toward 2.28, RSI is normalizing toward mid-50s to low-60s. That’s a loss of upside momentum from overbought conditions—consistent with a deeper retrace risk.
• MACD (daily): Histogram peaked late October and is rolling over. Signal-line cross down is near; momentum wanes—bearish near-term.
• Stochastics (hourly): Likely oversold after a steady series of lower highs/lows intraday, which argues for a reflexive bounce into resistance before any further downside expansion.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.18–0.20, implying typical daily swings of 7–9%. A two-ATR move would target ~15–18% swings; planning levels must respect this.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline near the 20SMA (~2.13). Price recently backed off from the upper band; now sits slightly above the midline, leaving room for a test of the lower half of the envelope on increased selling.

5. Ichimoku (daily approximation)

• Tenkan (9) above Kijun (26) recently on the rally; price has slipped below Tenkan and toward Kijun. Baseline/Kijun support sits ~2.27–2.30. A decisive daily close below Kijun increases odds of testing 2.21–2.16. Cloud status likely mixed but improving versus mid-October; however, losing the Kijun typically invites mean reversion lower.

6. Fibonacci mapping (Oct 18 low 1.851 → Oct 31 high 2.466)

• 38.2%: ~2.231. 50%: ~2.159. 61.8%: ~2.087.
• Current price 2.28 is just above the 38.2% level. If 2.23–2.24 breaks on a closing basis, probability increases for a continuation to 2.16–2.09 (50–61.8%).

7. Pattern analysis

• Potential short-term Head & Shoulders on the daily/4h composite: • Left shoulder ~2.42 (Oct 28), Head ~2.466 (Oct 31), Right shoulder ~2.42 (Nov 2). • Neckline ~2.32–2.33. The intraday action on Nov 3 traded below that neckline to 2.28, implying pattern activation. • Measured move: Head minus neckline ~0.14 → target ~2.19. This aligns with pivot S2 calculations and a prior demand shelf.
• Also reads as a bull-flag failure: the “flag” retrace has extended below the lower boundary on hourly timeframes, signaling distribution rather than healthy consolidation.

8. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume spike on Oct 28 confirmed the rally; subsequent days held decent participation. However, Nov 3 intraday shows relatively heavy distribution (already ~9.9M by 13:45 UTC) while price makes lower highs/lows. OBV on daily remains in an upslope from Oct 18 but is stalling—consistent with a pullback phase.

9. Intraday (1h) structure and VWAP

• 1h series since Nov 2 23:00 UTC: lower highs 2.418 → 2.345 → 2.343 → 2.281 and lower lows 2.370 → 2.295 → 2.277 → 2.237. This is a clear bearish micro-trend.
• Session VWAP (approx) resides above spot (near 2.31–2.33). Price is riding below VWAP, often rejecting there—suggesting rallies to that band are sellable until reclaimed.
• Volume profile shows a high-volume node around 2.31–2.34 acting as resistance.

10. Classical pivots (based on Nov 2 H/L/C: 2.4228/2.2628/2.4174)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.368.
• S1 ≈ 2.313, S2 ≈ 2.208, R1 ≈ 2.474.
• Price is below S1; the next magnet is S2 ≈ 2.208 if sellers maintain control. This neatly coincides with the H&S measured target (~2.19–2.21).

11. Confluence and 24-hour outlook Bearish drivers

• Breakdown below the 1h VWAP and below the H&S neckline (2.32–2.33).
• Daily momentum rolling over (MACD histogram declining, RSI cooling from elevated levels).
• Price remains under the 50-day SMA and under the 9EMA, with 2.42–2.45 overhead supply.
• Pivot structure points toward S2 (2.208) if S1 (2.313) continues to cap.

Counterpoints (risks to the short)

• Price is near the 38.2% daily Fibonacci retracement (~2.231); initial support is in proximity and could produce a bounce to 2.31–2.33.
• Hourly stochastics/RSI are near oversold; a reflex bounce is likely before any further leg down.

Base case (next 24h)

• Expect a “bounce-and-fade” sequence: a relief rally into 2.30–2.33 resistance (VWAP/hVNode/neckline retest), then continuation lower toward 2.21–2.19.
• If 2.33–2.35 is reclaimed and held on 1h closes with volume, shorts are invalidated and price could squeeze toward 2.38–2.42.

12. Trade plan (tactical, 24-hour horizon)

• Bias: Short on strength into resistance.
• Entry: Prefer a limit sell on a bounce into 2.30–2.32 (ideal: 2.305) where VWAP/neckline and supply confluence sit.
• Target: 2.185 (aligns with H&S measured move ~2.19 and just above the 50% Fib 2.159 for conservative profit-taking). A first reaction often occurs near 2.20–2.21; aiming slightly below increases fill probability.
• Invalidation/stop (not required by prompt but strongly recommended): 2.355–2.365 (above 1h supply, above neckline retest, and above 9EMA cluster), yielding an estimated R:R of ~2.2:1 from a 2.305 entry to 2.185 target.
• Alternate bullish scenario: A strong reclaim and hold above 2.35 on expanding volume would negate the short thesis and open room to 2.42–2.45; stand aside or flip bias only on convincing confirmation above that band.

13. Risk notes

• Crypto volatility is elevated; gaps and wicks are common. Consider scaling entries around 2.30–2.33 and using hard stops.
• If the market accelerates directly through 2.231 (38.2% Fib) without the bounce, momentum could carry to 2.21 quickly—avoid chasing; better to wait for a weak retest of broken supports.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence (break of neckline, under-VWAP intraday trend, momentum rollover, proximity to pivot S2 and H&S target) favors a short-duration short trade. The most efficient execution is to sell a bounce into 2.30–2.33 with a target around 2.185 over the next 24 hours.

This is market commentary and not financial advice. Manage risk accordingly.