Hyperliquid (HYPE) 24h Technical Price Forecast & Trade Plan

Long-Term & Recent Price Context

• From Mar-May 2025: HYPE traded in a consolidation band ($10–$20) through mid-May. A significant, high-volume breakout began on May 21, culminating in a parabolic rally to a $39.90 high on May 26. The move was foreshadowed by rising volume and volatility starting in mid-May.
• Volume Analysis: May 22 (close at $33.42m, volume: 480M) and May 23 (close at $32.75, vol: 561M) saw enormous buying activity, far above historical averages. This activity is consistent with a euphoric blow-off or initial parabolic phase.
• Current Situation: The most recent daily candle retraced from the $39.90 high, closing at $37.29 (well off the high), indicating sellers taking profit and increased volatility.

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Intraday Chart Pattern & Momentum (May 25–26, Hourly)

• Rapid Rally: May 25: Strong surge from $34.85 to $39.07. May 26: Attempts to break $39.89, fails to sustain, and price retraces.
• Bearish Intraday Pattern: After peaking, price made several lower highs ($39.03, $38.99, $38.97) and lower lows ($38.16, $38.04, $37.35, $36.70, $36.88) indicating a short-term trend reversal with increasing seller pressure.
• Heavy Wick Candles: Large upper shadows on candles from $39.89–$38.46, marking supply zones and overhead resistance.

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Key Technical Indicator Readings

(Standard settings applied for 24h/1h perspective)

Moving Averages:

• EMA(10/20/50):
  • Daily: The price is exceptionally extended above long-term averages (e.g., EMA50 from $24.8), which is unsustainable; overbought and far from mean, historically leading to a pullback or reversion.
  • Hourly/Intraday: EMA10/20 are turning down, showing early crossover; first sustained drop since rally began.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

• Daily: RSI (estimated) likely >80 on May 25 (overbought conditions), now likely declining to mid-70s. Historic pullbacks often begin here after parabolic moves.
• Hourly: RSI dropped from very high to below 50 on descent to $36.7, aligns with short-term bearish bias.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

• Daily/1h: Clear bearish divergence. The MACD line was accelerating upwards during rally but has peaked and rolling over as price forms lower highs. Histogram also turning negative.

Volume & Volatility:

• Climactic Volume: Past 3 days marked the highest volume in chart history, common signature at/near blow-off tops.
• ATR/Volatility: Daily/Hourly ATR (Average True Range) extremely elevated, showing expansion phase. Historically, after parabolic runs, volatility remains but is usually dominated by whipsaws and two-way (volatile) trading.

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Pattern Analysis

• Parabolic Blow-Off Top: The late-May surge is classic of late-stage bull trends: rapid gains, vertical candle bodies, volume climax, and follow-up volatility.
• Shooting Star / Gravestone Doji Candles: Several recent candles have long upper wicks, a bearish reversal pattern following an overextended rally.
• Double/Triple Top Potential: If unable to reclaim $39.90 soon, a double/triple top may form, confirming resistance and inviting further selling.
• Support Levels:
  • $36.70: Intraday swing low / first minor support.
  • $34.85/$33.40: Daily support, coincident with the previous consolidation breakout levels. High probability of dip buyers below $35.

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Orderflow / Market Psychology

• Who is in Control? Rapid price gains likely drew in retail buyers late. Early buyers and large players are taking profits into the new liquidity, contributing to supply/demand imbalance.
• FOMO Exiting: As price failed to break new highs ($39.90), momentum buyers may unwind, pushing price lower as stops are hit.

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Confluence Summary

• All major indicators (RSI, MACD, moving averages), patterns (blow-off top, shooting stars), and price action (lower highs/lows) indicate short-term exhaustion.
• The price is highly overextended and at historical resistance zones, with high probability of a short-term mean reversion before any further uptrend resumes.

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Decision: SELL (Short Position)

Trade Plan

• Open Price: $37.29 (current price) or as close as possible. Accept slight slippage up to $37.35.
• Close Price (Target): $34.90 (take profit grid): This is just above the major daily support zone and coincides with the post-breakout consolidation, increasing probability for a bounce or reaccumulation by dip buyers.
  • Secondary tighter take-profit: $36.10 (for more conservative traders, as first support).

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Risk Notes

• Stop-loss (not asked but essential): Consider $39.10 just above recent highs for disciplined risk management.
• If price breaks below $33.40 on heavy volume, extend targets lower, but expect buyers to reappear ~$35 at minimum.
• *If general market remains euphoric, expect volatility – use scaling in/out or partial profit.

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Final Summary

HYPE is showing technical exhaustion after a parabolic rally, with signs of a reversal via bearish candles, momentum loss, and mean reversion signals across key indicators. Probability favors a short-term pullback towards $34.90 before the next directional decision.