HYPE poised for a tactical bounce: buy the dip toward 34.3, target the 36.1–36.3 pivot

Top‑down view and market regime

• Regime: HYPE remains in a primary daily downtrend since mid‑September (lower highs from ~57–59, successive breakdowns in late Oct/early Nov, and a capitulation leg on Nov 21–22). Short‑term, however, price staged a reflex rally from the Nov 22 low (29.64) to an intraday high on Nov 28 (36.68) before pulling back to 34.43. This sets up a tactical mean‑reversion/continuation test within a broader bearish regime.
• Liquidity context: Crypto trades 24/7; weekends often feature thinner liquidity and exaggerated wicks. Expect whippy moves around key intraday levels with stops easily swept.

Structure, support/resistance and price action

• Key swing points: • Sept 11 H: 57.13 area (major supply) • Oct 10 capitulation low intraday: 26.26, close 38.14 (massive volatility spike) • Nov 21 breakdown close: 33.86 (now a nearby pivot) • Nov 22 capitulation low: 29.64 and close 30.05 (capitulation wick/spring candidate) • Nov 26 rebound close: 36.21 (first logical upside magnet) • Nov 28 intraday high: 36.68 (short‑term supply)
• Immediate levels (24h relevance): • Demand shelf: 33.70–34.05 (11/25 close 33.69; 11/28 hourly base 34.28–34.36) • Deeper support: 33.10 (11/26 low), 32.30 (61.8% retrace level), 30.05/29.64 (capitulation zone) • Near supply: 35.00–35.50 (round number + hourlies), 36.10–36.25 (11/26 close + hourly VWAP cluster), 36.60–36.70 (11/28 high)
• Candles: Nov 22 printed a long‑wick capitulation; subsequent sequence formed higher lows until Nov 28, then a controlled pullback. Nov 28 H1 shows a clear intraday trend break (lower highs after 14:00) and basing between 34.28–34.74.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 36.80 (est.): price at 34.43 trades ~6.4% below, confirming short‑term bearish bias but offering mean‑reversion room back toward the average.
• 50‑day SMA (est.) higher (~41–43) given September/October prints; price well below—primary trend still down.
• 8/21 EMA ribbon (qualitative): After the rebound, 8 EMA likely crossed up through 21 EMA into Nov 26–27, now compressing; price pulled back to/below the ribbon, often where continuation decisions are made. A reclaim of ~35.2–35.6 would re‑steepen the short‑term ribbon uptrend.

Momentum

• RSI(14) daily (computed): ≈ 38. This is bear‑biased but not deeply oversold. It supports a bounce‑attempt scenario, particularly after a capitulation and shallow retrace from the 29.64→36.68 rally.
• Stochastics: Likely mid‑low range on daily after the pullback; on hourly, fast stoch likely cycling up from oversold, supportive of a near‑term pop.
• MACD (qualitative): Below zero on daily, histogram had been improving into Nov 26, then flattened the last two sessions. A minor hourly bullish cross on a base would help a 24h bounce; daily still negative, so fade strength near resistance is a risk.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid‑band ≈ 36.8; lower band likely around low‑33s, upper band in low‑40s. Price sits in the lower third of the envelope—typical turf for tactical mean‑reversion attempts back toward the mid‑band (36–37) in 24–72h.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~3.5–4.5 after the Nov 21–22 shock. A 24h swing of ±1.5–2.5 is reasonable, setting a likely range 33.9–36.3 barring a fresh volatility event.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing low 29.64 (Nov 22) to high 36.68 (Nov 28): Δ = 7.04. • 23.6% retrace: 35.02 • 38.2%: 33.99 • 50%: 33.16 • 61.8%: 32.27
• Current 34.43 = ~32% retrace from the swing high—between 23.6% and 38.2%—i.e., a relatively shallow pullback so far. Holding above 33.99 (38.2%) keeps the rebound structure intact and favors a push back toward 36.1–36.7.
• If price resumes higher, first extension magnets for later (beyond 24h) are 38.2–61.8% extensions above 36.68 (roughly 39.3–41.5), but those are aggressive for a 24h window.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price remains below the cloud; tenkan likely up‑tilting after the rebound, kijun flatter around mid‑36s. A tag/revert toward kijun (~36.1–36.4) is a textbook mean‑reversion path if the base holds. Cloud resistance overhead implies that rallies are still countertrend on the daily.
• Hourly: Price dipped below tenkan/kijun post‑14:00 Nov 28; a recapture of kijun near 35–35.3 would confirm intraday strength back toward 36.1.

Wyckoff lens

• Nov 22 looks like a spring (capitulation below prior support) followed by an automatic rally (to 36.68), and current action resembles a secondary test around 34.3–34.6. Successful tests typically lead to Last Point of Support (LPS) and a markup toward the AR high (36.5–36.7). Failure of the test (break sustained below ~33.9) reopens the path to 33.1/32.3 and, in extremes, 30.

Volume/participation

• Volume climax on selloffs (Nov 21–22) and elevated on bounces; Nov 28 hourly shows heavier volume on the morning push to 36.7 and lighter during the pullback—more corrective than impulsive. This favors a bounce attempt provided the 34.3 shelf holds with no fresh supply surge.

Intraday microstructure (Nov 28 H1)

• Sequence: Higher high to 36.68 at 14:00 → sharp rejection → controlled descent to 34.90 at 16:00 → compression 34.28–34.74 into the close. The 34.28–34.36 pocket is intraday demand; below it sits 34.10/33.99 (Fibo 38.2%). A reclaim of 34.95–35.20 would typically ignite a test of 35.7 then 36.1–36.3.

Confluence summary for the next 24 hours

• Bullish factors: Post‑capitulation structure, shallow Fibo retrace holding above 33.99, price near lower Bollinger with RSI ~38, hourly basing, volume profile suggesting the pullback is corrective.
• Bearish factors: Primary daily downtrend intact, price below 20/50 SMA and below cloud; any bounce remains countertrend until >36.7 and especially >39.
• Base case (probabilities): • 60%: Mean‑reversion bounce to 35.6–36.3 (kijun/mid‑band/pivot confluence) • 30%: Range 34.0–35.3 with failed breakouts both sides • 10%: Breakdown through 33.9 → 33.1/32.3 (deeper retrace) if supply reappears

Trading plan (24h tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip into 34.2–34.4 with a tight invalidation just under 33.9 (discretionary), targeting the 36.1–36.3 magnet where multiple tools converge (Nov 26 close, kijun/mid‑band area, prior intraday supply). This captures the expected mean‑reversion while respecting the dominant downtrend by taking profits at the first strong resistance.
• Optional risk controls (not requested but prudent): soft stop 33.88–33.95; if filled, reassess near 33.1. Slippage control via limit order.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

• Expected path: Early probe below/into 34.3 demand, then grind higher to 35.0–35.3; if reclaimed, extension to 36.1–36.3 where sellers likely re‑emerge. Estimated range: 33.9–36.3, bias upward.

Conclusion

• Despite the primary downtrend, short‑term evidence favors a tactical long for a bounce toward 36.1–36.3. Take profits into that confluence given overarching bearish regime and weekend liquidity risks.