Injective Price Analysis Powered by AI

INJ coils under 4.70: Buy the dip at 4.60 for a pivot-driven pop to 4.73–4.74

INJ — multi-timeframe technical debrief and 24-hour game plan

Regime: Persistent multi-month downtrend since the October 10 shock (intraday low ~3.75, subsequent close ~8.60), followed by lower highs/lows into late December. Recent price has compressed into a tight base between 4.44–4.70.
Current price: 4.6199, printing marginal higher lows vs. Dec 18 (4.3648) and Dec 25 (4.4440). Short-term micro-trend is gently up; higher-timeframe trend remains down.
Range context (near term): Support cluster 4.43–4.46; resistance band 4.66–4.70; overhead supply 4.75–4.87.

Supports: 4.44–4.46 (recent daily closes/lows, Bollinger lower band vicinity), 4.37 (Dec 18 swing low / classic S1 from Dec 25 pivots), 4.30 (S2), 4.15 (S3 contingency).
Resistances: 4.66–4.70 (intraday highs repeatedly rejected today), 4.735 (daily pivot R2 from Dec 25 data), 4.76–4.87 (Dec 19–20 supply and pre-breakdown shelf), 5.00 psych, 5.16–5.33 (mid-December congestion), 5.55–5.83 (overhead moving-average supply).

RSI(14, daily): ~34 (computed from last 14 net moves). This is weak but off oversold; bias favors mean reversion bounces from support rather than momentum breakdowns unless supports fail.
Stoch/RSI blend (qualitative): Low-to-mid zone with a slight up-hook after yesterday’s doji-like candle, consistent with basing.
MACD (daily, qualitative): Below zero, histogram marginally improving; suggests deceleration of downside and potential for a short-term bullish cross on lower timeframes.
Intraday (H1): Multiple pushes into 4.69–4.70 rejected but with shallower pullbacks, indicating seller fatigue and early accumulation.

20D SMA: ~5.00 (approximate). Price below the 20D, confirming higher-timeframe downtrend and pointing to mean-reversion upside headroom.
8EMA (approx.): ~4.62–4.64; price near this, showing early stabilization.
21EMA (approx.): upper 4.8s–low 4.9s; still overhead resistance. The spread between fast and slow MAs is narrowing, typical of a basing process.

ATR(14, daily): compressed to roughly 0.17–0.22 after prior elevated readings. This supports a 24h tactical range around 4.45–4.70 unless a breakout occurs.
Bollinger Bands (20,2, daily): Midline near ~5.00 with lower band around mid 4.4s; price near lower band supports a mean-reversion bias up toward 4.65–4.70 in the short run.
Keltner Channel (qualitative): Price traveling near the lower channel edge; upside excursions toward the centerline likely if support continues to hold.

From Dec 19 high (4.831) to Dec 25 low (4.444):
- 38.2%: 4.592
- 50%: 4.637
- 61.8%: 4.681 Price currently toggling between 50% and 61.8%, repeatedly rejected at 61.8%/4.68–4.70. A sustained break/hold above 4.70 opens 4.76–4.83.

P = 4.5149; R1 = 4.5894; R2 = 4.7348; R3 = 4.8093; S1 = 4.3695.
Today’s trade has been above P and oscillating between R1 and just shy of R2. A measured push to R2 (4.735) within 24h is reasonable if 4.59–4.60 holds on pullbacks.

Holiday liquidity and generally declining volumes into late December; recent OBV behavior looks flat-to-slightly rising after the Dec 18 low, suggesting mild accumulation and seller exhaustion near 4.4–4.5.

Price below cloud; Tenkan below Kijun — bearish higher timeframe. However, short-term price action is attempting to hold above Tenkan on intraday frames. With a thin cloud overhead, a tactical bounce can unfold without invalidating the primary downtrend.

Micro double-bottom/higher-low sequence: Dec 18 low (4.36) → Dec 25 low (4.44) → today’s higher low ~4.55–4.59 zone intraday. Repeated taps at 4.68–4.70 create a short-term ascending triangle dynamic on H1.
Candles: Dec 25 printed a small-bodied candle near support; today is a modest-bodied green day with upper wicks at ~4.70. This is consistent with basing under resistance.
Harmonic hint: AB=CD-like symmetry from 4.444 → 4.687, retrace to ~4.596, then re-test highs — often preludes to a minor breakout if the retrace lows hold.

With RSI ~34 and price near lower Bollinger, the path of least resistance over 24h skews marginally upward, provided 4.58–4.60 acts as a demand zone. Expectation: a one-ATR push can probe 4.70–4.74 without structural change.

Base case (55%): Range-to-slight-breakout. Buyable dip to 4.59–4.61 holds; push to 4.70; if momentum persists, tag R2 4.73–4.74. Day high 4.73–4.76, day low 4.56–4.60.
Range fade (35%): Rejections at 4.68–4.70 continue; price oscillates 4.56–4.68, closes mid-range near 4.62–4.66.
Bear break (10%): A decisive loss of 4.56 leads to 4.49–4.45 tests; if liquidity thins, spike to 4.37 (S1) possible before bounce.

Rationale for long: Short-term higher lows, RSI recovery from low-30s, mean-reversion from lower bands, confluence of R1 (4.589), Fib 38.2% (4.592), and intraday demand. Also, multiple tests of 4.68–4.70 raise breakout odds on another attempt.
Optimal entry: Limit buy on pullback into 4.59–4.61; choose 4.60 (within the R1/Fib 38.2 confluence and near intraday demand seen around 04:00 and 14:00–15:00 UTC).
Take-profit: 4.73–4.74 aligns with pivot R2 and just above the frequently rejected 4.70 shelf; targets the first clean liquidity pocket above resistance. This is reachable within one ATR expansion in the current regime.
Invalidation/stop (for risk management; not part of order fields): Below 4.53–4.55 (under today’s pullback lows and below the 50% retrace 4.637/structure). Conservative stop 4.49; aggressive stop 4.55.
R:R illustration: Entry 4.60, TP 4.735 (+0.135), stop 4.55 (-0.05) = ~2.7:1 with tighter stop; with 4.49 stop, ~1.2:1 but lower whipsaw risk.

A strong hourly close below 4.55 that converts prior demand into supply; growing sell volume and a fresh daily close under 4.44 would reopen 4.37/4.30 downside. Conversely, a clean hourly close >4.70 with expanding volume should accelerate toward 4.73–4.78, potentially 4.83 if momentum expands.

Bias: Buy the dip toward 4.60 for a push to 4.73–4.74. Expected 24h range 4.55–4.76 with a modest bullish skew. A decisive break/hold over 4.70 unlocks 4.73–4.78; failure to hold 4.58 risks a flush toward 4.50/4.45 first.