Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Injective (INJ)

1. Trend Analysis

• Macro Trend: From the daily chart since early May, there is a strong bullish movement from ~$10 in early May, peaking at $15–$16 in late July, followed by a sharp correction. However, over the last two weeks, ranging behavior has replaced trend.
• Micro Trend (Last Week): Price action oscillates between $13.5 and $15.5 with multiple failed attempts above $15, indicating resistance near this level.
• The current price is $13.81, which positions it in the mid-range of the last 10 days, suggesting cautious sentiment after the recent sell-off.

2. Support/Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance: $14.00–14.30 (repeated rejection this week), then $15.00-$15.25 (historical supply zones)
• Support: $13.30 (intraday/hist lows), then $12.90 and $12.25 (mid-June and early-July reaction lows)

3. Volume Analysis

• Highest volumes coincide with extremes in the trend: strong buying climax on rallies, sudden spikes on sell-offs.
• Volume has decreased slightly in the past 48 hours, signaling neutrality and potential energy build-up for the next move.

4. Candlestick Patterns (Last 24–48h)

• Multiple long wicks and doji-style candles on the 1h and daily chart signal indecision between bulls and bears, with buyers defending $13.3 and sellers active above $14.
• Last five daily closes were lower highs and lower lows—short-term bearish bias, though losses are slowing.

5. Moving Averages (MA/EMA)

• 20-period EMA (Hourly): Currently flattening near $13.90; price is just below, which often acts as short-term resistance.
• 50-period EMA (Daily): Estimated near $13.40—this region is being tested as support frequently.

6. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Hourly RSI: Recently bounced from oversold levels (~38–40), now converging around neutral (45–50).
• Daily RSI: Dropping from overbought, now near 48, which signals neither overstretched buying nor deep selling.

7. MACD

• Hourly MACD: Bearish crossover on July 29th persists, but lines are converging. Possible bullish cross if support holds, but momentum is weak.
• Daily MACD: Histogram negative, lines separated; further downside momentum is present, but decreasing.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Hourly: Bands are narrowing and price oscillates around the lower-middle band, suggesting volatility contraction and potential breakout setup.

9. Fibonacci Retracement (Swing Low $10.0 → High $16.3)

• 0.382 retracement: ~$14.16 (current resistance)
• 0.5 retracement: ~$13.15 (key support area)
• Price is currently trapped between these major Fibo levels.

10. Order Book/Liquidity (If Inferred From Volatility & PA)

• Sudden sharp moves through $14.00 and $13.30 supports suggest stop orders—expect volatility spikes if these levels break again.

11. Pattern Analysis

• Bearish Scenario: Possible descending triangle from $15.25 (mid-July high) to current lows, which is typically a continuation pattern for downside if broken.
• Bullish Scenario: Price refuses to break below $13.30 despite multiple tests, possibly forming a short-term base for a relief rally.

12. Elliott Wave Considerations

• Wave formation suggests completion of a five-wave rally into $16, with current move correcting the advance—a wave 2/4 or A correction likely unfolding.

13. Market Sentiment

• Volatility clusters around news-driven events and session opens. Lack of sustained buying on recent lifts signals short-term skepticism.

Composite View & Synthesis

• The prevailing structure shows a strong uptrend losing momentum approaching $15–$16, with multiple failed rallies and increased supply. The ensuing correction has paused at the 38.2–50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting critical support nearby.
• Oscillators (RSI, MACD) are weak but not deeply oversold—momentum still favors sellers, but further downside seems limited unless $13.30 breaks with volume.
• Volatility squeeze signals a potential sharp move within the next 24h, with the lower boundary around $13.3–$13.5 being tested repeatedly.
• Bearish patterns (descending triangle, MACD) outweigh bullish signals in the immediate term.
• Risk is skewed to a moderate breakdown below $13.3, target toward the $12.9–$13.0 region—unless a strong recovery above $14.25 occurs, which would invalidate the thesis.

Final Decision

Given the overall setup, I recommend a Short Position (Sell), looking to exploit a breakdown through $13.30 support, targeting the next demand zone.

Optimal Entry: Short on a retest/failure below $13.80–$13.85 area. Take Profit (Target): $13.05 (front-running the major Bitcoin-level support and likely order cluster).

Contingency: If price rallies hard through $14.25, reevaluate for stop-out.

---

Summary Table

Technical Indicator/Pattern	Implication
Price Trend	Bearish/Shaky
Volume	Neutral/Contracting
Support/Resistance	$13.3/$14.3-$15.0
RSI/MACD	Bearish/Near neutral
Candlestick	Indecision
Fibonacci	At 38-50% retrace
Volatility	Squeeze, break imminent
Elliott Wave	Correction phase

Conclusion

Short-term, the risk/reward favors a sell below current support—expect a $0.70 move lower to the next key order zone unless bulls overwhelm above $14.25 on strong volume.