INJ poised for a 6.00 breakout: dip-buy the 5.88 confluence for a 6.20–6.22 run

Executive summary and thesis

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bullish, expecting a range expansion above 5.95–6.00 toward 6.08–6.22, provided 5.85 holds intraday. Probability ~60–65% for upside continuation; ~35–40% for a fade back into 5.75–5.80 if 5.85 breaks.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip into the 5.86–5.90 confluence or on a momentum break above 5.96. Target 6.20–6.22 within 24h. Invalidation below 5.74–5.78 zone.

Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Regime: Prolonged downtrend from mid-September highs (~14+) amplified by the Oct-10 capitulation (intraday low ~3.75), followed by a stair-step decline into late November/early December (lower highs and lower lows). Recent action shows a short-term recovery from the Dec-1 low (5.22), producing a potential swing low and near-term bullish reaction.
• Swing map (key closes):
  • Nov-21: 5.44 (weak base)
  • Nov-23: 5.35 (local low)
  • Nov-27: 6.17 (bounce high)
  • Nov-30: 5.74 (pullback)
  • Dec-1: 5.22 (swing low/new marginal lower low)
  • Dec-2: 5.83 (strong bullish candle/engulf-like recovery)
  • Dec-3: 5.91 (continuation)
• Interpretation: Despite the macro daily downtrend, the market carved a fresh reaction low on Dec-1 and immediately printed a strong up-day on Dec-2, then stabilized and edged higher today. That combination often marks the start of a corrective upswing within a broader downtrend.

Support/resistance and confluence

• Immediate supports: 5.90/5.88 (intraday micro support), 5.85 (hourly basing), 5.75–5.76 (today’s intraday low and range floor), 5.74 (Nov-30 close), 5.63 (classic daily pivot P from Dec-2), 5.44 (Nov-21 close), 5.35 (Nov-23 low).
• Immediate resistances: 5.94–5.96 (hourly range highs), 6.00 (psychological), 6.08–6.09 (R1 pivot from Dec-2), 6.17 (Nov-27 high), 6.29–6.33 (Nov-28 high/upper resistance band), 6.60 (deeper resistance from mid-Nov congestion).
• Confluence buy zone: 5.86–5.90 combines the 61.8% retracement of the Nov-27→Dec-1 decline, intraday VWAP vicinity, hourly Kijun/Tenkan proximity (see Ichimoku), and repeated hourly reaction lows.

Fibonacci mapping (Nov-27 high 6.287 to Dec-1 low 5.219)

• Range = 1.068. Retracements from the low:
  • 38.2%: ~5.627
  • 50%: ~5.753
  • 61.8%: ~5.885 (current price is hovering just above; classic decision point)
  • 78.6%: ~6.060 (near the R1 pivot ~6.086 and just under the round 6.00/6.08 band)
  • 100%: ~6.287 (full retrace test; near Nov-27 high)
• Read: Holding above 5.885 strengthens the case for a push into the 6.06–6.09 pocket and potentially a tag of 6.17–6.22. A sustained failure below 5.885 invites mean reversion to 5.75/5.63.

Pivot levels (Classic, based on Dec-2 H=5.887 L=5.177 C=5.831)

• P: ~5.632; R1: ~6.086; R2: ~6.342; S1: ~5.376; S2: ~4.921.
• Read: Price has reclaimed above P decisively; markets tend to probe R1 next. If momentum is healthy, intraday spikes toward R1 are likely, with tails sometimes extending part-way to R2 (6.20–6.34), matching our target band.

Moving averages (approximations)

• Daily 20-SMA/EMA: Roughly around the 5.9–6.1 area after recent compression. Price is testing/reclaiming this band, typical of early-stage mean reversion in a broader downtrend.
• Daily 50-SMA: Still materially higher (dragged up by prior price regime), above current price—keeps the macro downtrend intact, but not a blocker for a 24h bounce.
• Hourly short MAs (9/20 EMA): Price is riding above the 9/20 EMA stack, with pullbacks finding buyers around 5.86–5.88; MA ribbon is beginning to fan upward—short-term bullish.

RSI (momentum)

• Daily RSI(14): Recovering from near-oversold to roughly neutral-mid (est. 45–55). That leaves room for further upside before overbought pressure emerges; classic rebound context.
• Hourly RSI(14): Mild bullish regime (est. 55–60), consistent with higher lows and repeated tests of the upper intraday band. Not overbought—room to push through 5.96/6.00.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Histogram likely ticking up from deeply negative levels, with signal crossover risk to the upside in coming sessions; for a 24h horizon this favors follow-through strength.
• Hourly MACD: Above the signal line with shallow positive slope; supports momentum pushes on minor dips.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price back inside/near the middle band after hugging the lower band into Dec-1; this transition often precedes a move to the mid/upper band, aligning with 6.08–6.22.
• Hourly: Bands modestly narrow, price frequently rides the upper band on upticks—a pattern of controlled trend rather than blow-off. Narrowing suggests pending expansion; given bias, likely to the upside if 5.85 holds.

Ichimoku (focus on 1h/4h)

• 1h: Price above Tenkan and Kijun with a bullish Tenkan>Kijun cross registered during the Dec-2 rebound. Lagging span (Chikou) is clearing recent candles, improving structure. Cloud ahead is thin/flat near 5.92–5.96, making it susceptible to an upside breach toward 6.08.
• 4h: Price is either at the cloud base or slightly below a thin cloud; a quick punch into/through the cloud toward 6.10–6.20 is plausible in the next session if momentum persists.

Volume/OBV/VWAP

• Daily volumes on Dec-2 and today are constructive, confirming the rebound is not on anemic participation. No signs of capitulative supply today; dips are being bought.
• OBV (qualitative): Ticking higher since Dec-1, consistent with accumulation on up bars.
• Intraday VWAP: Price has held above session VWAP bands through much of today; pullbacks toward VWAP (~5.88–5.90) are bought, validating that zone as an efficient long entry.

ATR and volatility

• Daily ATR(14) rough estimate ~0.50–0.60 after compression from October’s spike. A typical 24h 1xATR push from 5.90 projects 6.40 on the high side or 5.40 on the low; but given resistance overhead and improving tone, a half-ATR to three-quarter-ATR advance (to ~6.20–6.35) is the higher-probability path rather than a full ATR extension.

Candlestick and pattern read

• Dec-2 daily: Bullish wide-range up candle that reclaimed a lot of the Dec-1 drawdown—classic reversal day.
• Today (so far): Constructive inside-to-small-range continuation candle, holding upper half of yesterday’s range.
• Micro-structure: Repeated upper-band tags intraday without sharp rejections, combined with higher lows—hallmarks of an impending local range break.
• Possible micro inverted H&S (loosely): Left shoulder ~5.74 (Nov-30), head ~5.22 (Dec-1), right shoulder ~5.75 (today’s low) with neckline ~5.95–6.00; a break targets ~6.20–6.30 measured move—aligns with our take-profit.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Dec-1 low as wave A termination, Dec-2 impulse as wave B/1, today’s consolidation as wave 2/4; next leg could be a C/3 push into 6.10–6.22 before stalling. This is a qualitative cross-check supporting near-term upside.

Market profile and liquidity

• Notable high-volume nodes: 5.60–5.65 (prior pivot), 5.85–5.90 (today’s acceptance), 6.05–6.10 (thin zone/likely to move quickly once breached), 6.16–6.22 (supply shelf from Nov-27/28). Expect quick travel through 6.00–6.08 once the lid is off, then friction near 6.17–6.22.

Risk scenarios

• Bullish continuation (base case ~60–65%): Hold 5.85, break 5.96/6.00, tag 6.08 (R1), extend to 6.17–6.22. Intraday pullbacks shallow and bought at 5.90/5.88.
• Bearish fade (~35–40%): Lose 5.85 decisively -> 5.76/5.75 test; if liquidity slips, a deeper mean reversion to 5.63 pivot is possible; below that, 5.44 becomes a risk. This scenario likely requires broader market weakness.

Trade plan synthesis

• Entry logic: Buy into the 5.86–5.90 dip (optimal risk/reward at the 61.8% retracement ~5.885) or, alternately, stop-entry on breakout >5.96 for momentum confirmation. Given the brief 24h horizon and tight intraday rotations, the dip buy offers better R:R and higher fill probability.
• Target: 6.20–6.22 aligns with R1 overshoot and prior supply shelf (Nov-27 high 6.17). It’s an achievable stretch within one session without requiring full ATR.
• Invalidation (stop, not part of output fields): Below 5.74–5.78; a decisive hourly close under 5.75 would signal failed structure and re-open downside to 5.63/5.44.
• Risk/reward (illustrative):
  • Entry 5.885, TP 6.22 (+0.335, ~5.7%); stop 5.74 (-0.145, ~-2.5%); R:R ~2.3:1.

24-hour price path projection

• Preferred path: 5.88–5.90 base, push through 5.96/6.00, tap 6.08, brief consolidation, extension probe toward 6.17 and fade/close near 6.20–6.22.
• Alt path: Early weakness to 5.76; if immediate reclaim to >5.85 occurs, buyers still likely to press to 6.00; failure to reclaim risks a 5.63 check.

Conclusion

• The combination of reclaiming short-term MAs, holding above the 61.8% retracement, constructive intraday VWAP behavior, rising OBV, and alignment of pivot/Fibonacci/neckline levels argues for a tactical long with a 6.20–6.22 objective within 24h, barring a loss of 5.85 and especially 5.75.