JASMY: Short the Pop Into 0.0101–0.0103 as the Downtrend Resumes

Summary view

• Instrument: JasmyCoin (JASMY)
• Current price: 0.009785
• Bias (24h): Sideways-to-down within a 0.00925–0.01020 range; sell rallies into 0.0100–0.0103 resistance
• Plan: Short the pop into the confluence zone; take profit near prior shelf

Price action and structure

• Higher-timeframe context (since late July): Lower highs and lower lows from ~0.020 down to sub-0.010; several failed mean-reversion attempts. The Oct-10 capitulation wick (low ~0.00488) produced a sharp rebound, but price stalled below successive lower highs, preserving the broader downtrend.
• Recent daily structure (post-Oct-10): Sequence of lower highs 0.01152 → 0.01145 → 0.01096 → 0.01073 → 0.01031 with a relatively flat-to-weak base, now oscillating around 0.0093–0.0103. This maps as a descending channel/flag with support near 0.00926–0.00940 and supply thickening above 0.0100.
• Intraday (1h) structure (last 24h): Initial fade to 0.00934, rebound toward 0.00985–0.00990, repeated rejections near 0.00995–0.01005, consistent with an intraday lower-highs grind beneath a well-defined resistance shelf.

Key levels

• Supports: 0.00934 (today’s intraday low), 0.00926 (Oct-10 close), 0.00900 (psychological), 0.00812 (38.2% retracement of the Oct-02 high to Oct-10 low)
• Resistances: 0.00995–0.01005 (intraday supply/VWAP cluster), 0.01013–0.01030 (61.8% retracement confluence + 1h cloud top + recent swing highs), 0.01073 (Oct-16 high), 0.01101–0.01134 (Oct 12–13 closes/peaks)

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20SMA ≈ 0.01193 (computed from the last 20 daily closes): price trades ~18% below; bearish.
• Daily 50SMA (approx) still well above 0.013–0.014 (given August–September prints); bearish slope.
• 1h EMAs: 9-EMA ≈ at/just below price; 21-EMA above 9-EMA earlier but flattening; rallies keep failing as price meets the 21/34-EMA cluster around 0.0099–0.0101. Until a clean reclaim and hold above 0.0103, the short-term trend remains down-to-sideways.

Momentum

• Daily RSI(14): low-to-mid 40s (oversold bounce matured, still below the 50 midline); momentum is subdued and not yet supportive of a sustained bullish leg.
• 1h RSI(14): mid-40s to high-40s; intraday bounces are failing near RSI ~50–55, typical of a market capped by overhead supply.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with a modestly narrowing histogram after Oct-10; mild positive momentum divergence from the capitulation low, but no confirmed uptrend—momentum remains fragile.
• MACD (1h): Hovering below/near the zero line with frequent shallow crossovers, characteristic of range-bound, sell-the-rip conditions.

Volatility and bands

• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 0.01193; lower band estimated around 0.0093–0.0095. Price is oscillating near the lower band—mean-reversion pops are stalling before mid-band, consistent with trend persistence.
• 14D ATR: Elevated (approx ~0.0010–0.0012) after the Oct-10 shock; implies 24h potential range around ±0.001 from the mean—i.e., 0.0088–0.0109, matching the mapped levels.

Ichimoku (contextual, approximate)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan (~0.0104) and Kijun (~0.0113), below a bearish cloud; bias remains negative with the Kijun above price acting as a distant magnet but strong resistance corridor lies ahead.
• 1h: Price beneath/into a thin cloud between ~0.0099–0.01015; repeated intraday rejections at cloud top reinforce the sell-the-rally setup.

Fibonacci mapping (post-crash reversion)

• Full move: Oct-02 swing high (~0.01337) to Oct-10 capitulation low (~0.00488).
• 38.2%: ~0.00812 (held as a higher floor post-washout)
• 50%: ~0.00913 (clustered with the Oct-10 close 0.00926)
• 61.8%: ~0.01013 (precise with current supply shelf; price repeatedly stalls near 0.0101–0.0103)
• 78.6%: ~0.01150 (converges with the 0.0110–0.0115 supply zone from Oct 12–13) This places the market squarely in a 50–61.8% retracement band, prone to failure without clear accumulation.

Volume and flows

• The Oct-10 event saw capitulation-grade volume; subsequent rebound days had good but declining participation. Since Oct-13, green days show weaker follow-through than red days—indicative of distribution rather than accumulation.
• Intraday today: spikes into 0.0099–0.0100 attract supply; dips toward 0.0094 show some demand but without impulsive buying.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel/flag from the post-bounce highs; a horizontal shelf in the 0.00926–0.00940 area forms the base. The setup resembles a developing descending triangle (flat base with a series of lower highs), which statistically favors downside resolution if/when the base fractures.
• Candles: Oct-10 hammer-like recovery candle established a tactical floor; subsequent candles are smaller-bodied with upper wicks near 0.0101–0.0103, signaling persistent supply.

Confluence summary (bearish lean)

• Below declining daily MAs and under daily cloud.
• Daily momentum under midline; 1h momentum capped under the cloud.
• Powerful confluence resistance 0.00995–0.01030: 1h cloud top, 61.8% retrace (~0.01013), descending trendline touch zone, intraday supply, and recent swing highs.
• Support shelf 0.00926–0.00940 is repeatedly probed; repeated tests risk eventual breach.

24-hour outlook

• Base case: Continue to range with a downward tilt; rallies into 0.0100–0.0103 likely to meet supply; expect another probe of 0.0093–0.0094. Break of 0.00926 opens 0.00900, and, if volatility expands, 0.0086–0.0088.
• Upside risk: A decisive 1h close and hold above 0.01035 would negate the immediate short and allow a squeeze toward 0.0107 then 0.0110–0.0113.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Strategy: Sell strength into the 0.0100–0.0103 confluence to position for a rotation back to the base.
• Entry (limit sell): 0.01002 (front-run the 0.0101–0.0103 stack where offers tend to reload)
• Take profit: 0.00930 (near the shelf where responsive buyers stepped in; favorable R multiple vs a reasonable invalidation above 0.01035)
• Notes: Invalidation for thesis (not an order here): sustained 1h close >0.01035.

Risk note

• Elevated volatility persists post-capitulation; slippage possible around shelf breaks and during weekend liquidity gaps. Adjust sizing accordingly. This is a technical view, not financial advice.