JASMY: Sell-the-Rip Setup as Price Walks the Lower Band Toward 0.0133

Comprehensive multi-timeframe view (Daily and Hourly) with quantified levels and a 24h trading plan

1. Market regime and context

• Asset: JasmyCoin (JASMY) priced at 0.01380589 as of 2025-09-04 20:56 UTC.
• Structure since mid-July: a strong bull impulse into 0.0205 (Jul 23) followed by a persistent series of lower highs and lower lows from mid-August. The August 31 daily close at 0.014332 set a key support that today’s intraday action has probed and marginally undercut (today’s hourly low ~0.0136717).
• Bottom line: bears control the daily trend; intraday is also weak though near short-term oversold zones.

2. Trend analysis (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Lower highs since the 0.01907 (Aug 12) swing, and lower lows since Aug 29 (0.014122) and Aug 31 (0.014332). Today’s print extended the sequence with a fresh lower low on the intraday timeframe (0.01367), confirming bearish continuation.
• Hourly trend (Sep 3–4 data): Stair-step down with a sequence of lower highs (around 0.01440 → 0.01425 → 0.01416 → 0.01402 → 0.01395 → 0.01386 → 0.01380). Price is consistently rejected below the hourly 20–50 EMAs (approx), indicating persistent supply.

3. Moving averages and crossovers

• 20-day SMA (explicitly approximated from last 20 closes) ≈ 0.01529. Current price is ~9.7% below the 20D SMA → bearish positioning and mean-reversion risk to the upside in the very short term, but the dominant signal is trend down.
• 5-day SMA (last 5 closes ≈ [0.014332, 0.014083, 0.014505, 0.014350, 0.013806]) averages ≈ 0.014215. The 5D SMA < 20D SMA and sloping down → short-term momentum aligned with the broader bearish bias.
• 50-day SMA (approx, visual from data mix between 0.014–0.020 period) likely in the 0.0160–0.0163 range and declining. Price << 50D → entrenched downtrend.
• EMAs (estimates): 9D EMA around ~0.0149–0.0150 and 21D EMA around ~0.0153–0.0154; price below both → continued bearish alignment. No bullish crossover on deck.

4. Momentum (RSI, Stoch, MACD)

• Daily RSI (14) qualitative read: after the Aug 12 peak, RSI trended down; the late-August selloff likely pushed RSI to the mid-30s; the Sep 1–3 bounce nudged it higher but today’s drop likely drags RSI back toward ~35–40. This is bearish momentum, not yet deeply oversold on daily (risk of further slide before a durable bounce).
• Hourly RSI: oscillating in the 30–45 band through the session, with brief upticks to ~50 on minor bounces. This suggests intraday relief rallies fade quickly.
• MACD (daily): The 12/26 EMAs are negative since mid-August; histogram attempts to contract during Sep 1–3 bounce now re-expanding negative with today’s sell. This resets bearish momentum after a failed mean-reversion.
• Stochastic (hourly): cycling near oversold but repeatedly failing to sustain >80; typical of downtrends where oscillators can stay pinned low while price grinds lower.

5. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR (20) estimate: ~0.0008–0.0011. Today’s close-to-low range (~0.00068 from yesterday’s close) sits within that ATR, leaving room for another 0.0004–0.0007 move lower in the next 24h if momentum persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): Midline ≈ 0.01529; estimated σ ≈ 0.0008. Lower Band ≈ 0.01529 - 0.0016 ≈ 0.01369. Current 0.01381 sits just above/near the lower band → there’s short-term bounce risk, but hugging the lower band in a downtrend often precedes a walk down the band (bearish continuation) rather than an immediate mean-reversion.

6. Volume, OBV, and liquidity

• Volume backdrop: After the heavy late-August activity and the Sep 1–3 bounce, today’s participation is moderate. Selloffs on expanding volume (Aug 29–31) define supply zones overhead; bounces occur on lighter volume and stall quickly.
• OBV qualitative: Down-sloping since mid-August; no positive divergence printed on recent lows. Bearish.
• Liquidity pockets: Thick volume node 0.0146–0.0150 from Aug 26–Sep 2; thin pocket 0.0132–0.0134 (June range) suggests that if 0.01367 gives way decisively, price can accelerate into 0.0133 without much friction.

7. Market structure, support/resistance and key levels

• Immediate resistance: 0.01395–0.01405 (hourly supply and prior micro swing highs), 0.01435 (yesterday’s close/cluster), 0.01450–0.01462 (Sep 2 top zone). These are sell zones on rallies.
• Immediate support: 0.01367 (today’s intraday low), then 0.01350/0.01341 (June 13–23 cluster), 0.01331–0.01330 (June 25–30 area), and 0.01316/0.01301 deeper.
• Structure bias: Break of 0.01367 intraday low creates an air pocket to ~0.0133. The failed reclaim of 0.01435–0.01440 further biases to the downside.

8. Fibonacci and measured moves

• From Aug 12 high (0.01907) to Aug 31 low (0.01433): 38.2% retrace ≈ 0.0166 (rejected late Aug), 23.6% ≈ 0.0157 (also rejected). The inability to hold below shallow retraces confirms strong sellers.
• Extension from that major swing: 1.272 ≈ 0.01304; 1.618 ≈ 0.01140. The 1.272 aligns with mid-June supports (~0.0130), making 0.0130 a medium-horizon magnet if downside persists beyond the next 24h.
• Near-term micro-swing (Aug 22 high 0.01648 to Aug 31 low 0.01433) projected from Sep 2 lower high (0.01462) implies measured-move targets into 0.0133–0.0130 first, then deeper if trend accelerates.

9. Ichimoku framework (daily)

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Chikou below price. Kumo ahead likely flat-to-down around 0.0149–0.0155. This full bearish Ichimoku stack supports continuation lower. No edge for a cloud break in the next 24h.

10. Elliott wave / harmonic color

• The move from Aug 12 looks like a 5-wave decline with Sep 1–3 a shallow corrective (wave 2 of a lower-degree structure), and today beginning a fresh impulsive leg lower (wave 3 of that degree). If correct, wave 3 often extends; the next 24h could reasonably press into 0.0135 → 0.0133. Deeper harmonic/extension confluences sit nearer 0.0130.

11. Hourly microstructure and game plan

• Price has repeatedly rejected the hourly 20EMA vicinity on minor bounces; an optimal tactical short is on a pop to 0.01390–0.01400 (a confluence of micro-supply and prior pivots) with invalidation above 0.01445–0.01450.
• Expected path over 24h: • Initial bounce attempt into 0.01390–0.01400 (liquidity probe) → • Fade/rejection back below 0.01380 → • Stop-sweep through 0.01367 → acceleration into 0.01350 → • Brief consolidation → • Follow-through toward 0.01330 where first larger buyers appear.
• Alternative (lower probability) path: A stronger mean-reversion to 0.01420–0.01435 if shorts get squeezed; this requires reclaiming and holding >0.01405 on hourly closing basis. Failing that, rallies remain sells.

12. Risk management and invalidation

• Tactical invalidation: Hourly close above 0.01445–0.01450 (breaks the local supply shelf and challenges the 0.01462 pivot). Structural invalidation: Daily close back above 0.01462–0.01470 which would threaten a larger squeeze toward 0.0152–0.0153.
• Position sizing should reflect ATR (~0.0009) and desired stop width; for example, a short from 0.01395 with a 0.00050–0.00070 stop (0.01445–0.01465) targets ~0.00065 reward to 0.01330 yields ~1.0–1.3R.

13. 24-hour probability-weighted outlook

• Bearish continuation toward 0.01350–0.01330: 55–60% likelihood.
• Range-bound chop 0.01370–0.01410: 25–30%.
• Bullish squeeze to 0.01420–0.01440: 10–15% (needs reclaim >0.01405 and follow-through, which has repeatedly failed).

Conclusion and trade decision

• Bias: Sell rallies. Trend, momentum, and structure are aligned bearish, with nearby supports likely to be tested. Mean-reversion risk exists, so optimal execution is to wait for a bounce into 0.01390–0.01400 rather than chase lows.
• Decision: Sell (Short Position).
• Plan: Open a short near 0.01395 (limit). Target 0.01330 within 24h. Invalidation (not part of order schema but for risk control): 0.01447 (tactical) or 0.01465 (structural).