Tradzar
Jupiter Price Analysis Powered by AI
JUP at the Edge of Support: Bear-Flag Setup Points to a 0.167 Retest Within 24 Hours
1) Market structure & context (top-down)
Current price: 0.1728937
Daily trend (Nov → now)
- JUP has been in a clear primary downtrend since early November (peak area ~0.36–0.37) to the present (~0.17).
- Lower highs / lower lows dominate the daily structure:
- November breakdown: ~0.34 → ~0.24 (persistent sell pressure)
- December attempted stabilization around ~0.19–0.20, but failed to reclaim prior supply.
- January attempted rebound to ~0.244 (Jan 14 high ~0.24407), then rolled over again.
- Jan 31 liquidation candle: low ~0.166997 with huge volume (~69M) after failing to hold ~0.20–0.215.
- Net: the larger timeframe is still bearish, and the most recent impulse leg was down.
Key daily levels (support/resistance mapping)
Using visible swing points and high-volume reactions:
- Major resistance (supply):
- 0.190–0.194 (multiple Jan closes, prior support that flipped)
- 0.200–0.206 (Jan 27 breakout close 0.206, then failure)
- 0.215–0.218 (Jan 28 high-volume spike zone)
- Near-term resistance:
- ~0.180–0.1827 (intraday highs today; also yesterday’s bounce region)
- Supports:
- 0.1700–0.1710 (today’s intraday lows repeatedly tested)
- 0.1670 (Jan 31 capitulation low; key “line in the sand”)
Interpretation: price is below multiple overhead supply shelves, with support only a few % underneath.
2) Short-term (hourly) tape read: momentum, balance, and order-flow clues
Hourly data (Feb 1) shows:
- Early session tried to push to ~0.18276 then sharp rejection (10:00 candle dumped to ~0.1770).
- A slow grind lower followed with weak bounces; multiple candles print lower highs.
- Support around 0.170–0.171 held, but rebounds are muted (buyers defending, not dominating).
- The last hours sit near 0.173, i.e., mid/lower part of the day’s range, not near highs.
Range today (approx): High ~0.18287 / Low ~0.16989
- Current price is closer to the lower third of that range → bias remains fragile.
Volume note:
- Many hourly bars show zero (likely feed issue), but where volume exists it clusters near turns (10:00 selloff; 18:00 bounce). This supports a distribution/relief-bounce interpretation rather than accumulation.
3) Volatility & “impulse vs correction”
Daily true range / shock behavior
- Jan 31 daily candle had a very wide range (high ~0.2137 to low ~0.1670), signaling elevated volatility and potential for continued follow-through (either continuation or mean-reversion).
- Feb 1 so far is a narrower stabilization day compared with Jan 31, but it is not reclaiming key levels (notably 0.18–0.19).
Practical read
After a capitulation-like day, markets often:
- bounce (short covering),
- retest lows, or
- chop and then break.
Today looks like step (1) happened early (to 0.1827) and then faded into step (3). That frequently precedes a retest of the panic low.
4) Moving averages (trend confirmation)
(Exact MA values aren’t computed here, but the structure allows a reliable qualitative read.)
- With price at ~0.173 after spending weeks in 0.19–0.23, price is almost certainly below the 20D and 50D.
- In downtrends, those averages act as dynamic resistance; rallies into them tend to be sold.
- The failure today to hold >0.18 is consistent with MA rejection behavior.
Conclusion: MA regime likely bearish, favoring selling rallies.
5) RSI / momentum (probabilistic)
- The multi-week decline and the Jan 31 dump imply daily RSI likely moved toward oversold.
- However, oversold in a strong downtrend often leads to bear-market bounces, not trend reversal.
- Intraday: the early spike to 0.1827 followed by persistent fade suggests negative momentum divergence intraday (buy impulse failed, sellers regained control).
RSI implication: small bounce risk exists, but the path of least resistance remains down/sideways unless 0.182–0.19 is reclaimed.
6) Pattern recognition
(A) Bear flag / descending channel (short-term)
- Big drop (Jan 31) + sideways-to-slightly-up early Feb 1 followed by fading = classic bear flag / bear pennant behavior.
- Trigger: break under intraday support ~0.170–0.171.
(B) Support flip principle
- 0.190–0.200 acted as a base multiple times; breakdown implies it becomes resistance.
- Current price is far below it; odds favor any rally being capped below 0.19.
(C) Retest of capitulation low
- Capitulation lows often get retested within 24–72h.
- The lack of strong follow-through buying today increases probability of a 0.167 retest.
7) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / retest lower support
- Price likely rotates down toward 0.171 → 0.170, with risk of breaking to 0.167.
- If 0.167 breaks cleanly, next logical liquidity pocket is psychological 0.160 (round number + extension), though not guaranteed within 24h.
Alternative (lower probability): relief bounce extends
- If buyers reclaim and hold above 0.180–0.1827, a squeeze toward 0.190 can occur.
- But given overhead supply and trend, this is more likely a sell-the-rip opportunity than a durable reversal.
Directional call for 24h: bearish bias; expect downside probing and/or retest of 0.167.
8) Trade decision logic (why Sell)
Confluence pointing to Sell (short):
- Dominant timeframe trend: downtrend since Nov.
- Recent impulse: sharp breakdown on Jan 31.
- Current location: below multiple resistances (0.18/0.19/0.20).
- Intraday behavior: early pump rejected; price ends near lows → weak demand.
- Pattern: stabilization after dump resembles bear flag, commonly resolves downward.
Main risk to short thesis: strong reclaim of 0.1827 and especially 0.190 (would indicate higher demand and potential short squeeze).
9) Optimal execution (open/close)
Given current price 0.1729, shorting here is workable but not optimal (support is close). Better expectancy is to short into a bounce toward resistance.
- Optimal open (short): 0.1795
- Rationale: near the 0.180 handle + within today’s prior pivot region; better R:R than shorting directly at 0.173.
- Take-profit / close: 0.1675
- Rationale: just above the capitulation low (~0.1670) to front-run bids and improve fill probability.
(If price never bounces to 0.1795, that itself is a sign of weakness; a secondary/backup entry would be a breakdown entry <0.1708, but the request asks for one optimal open price.)