JUP Coils Beneath 0.45: Setting Up a Stop-Run to 0.462

Instrument: Jupiter (JUP) Spot reference: 0.4430 (last print 2025-10-28 03:14 UTC) Horizon: next 24 hours Bias summary: Short-term bullish continuation with a breakout-and-retest structure building just beneath 0.45–0.453. Favor buying a shallow pullback into intraday VWAP/pivot support with upside toward 0.462–0.468 on a stop run above 0.4528.

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: Since the 10/10 flash-crash wick (low ~0.130, close ~0.330), price carved a base 0.33–0.37, then advanced in higher highs/higher lows: closes 0.3579 (10/23), 0.4036 (10/24), 0.4276 (10/25), 0.4352 (10/26). On 10/27 intraday, price extended to 0.4528 before a modest fade to ~0.443. That sequence preserves higher lows and sets a nearby liquidity pool above 0.4528 (prior intraday high).
• Regime assessment: Short-term uptrend (daily) within a still-damaged medium-term trend (50D trend likely down/sloping flat post-September selloff). That combination favors tactical longs on dips, while respecting overhead supply 0.46–0.50.
• Range context: Recent 3-day impulse ~0.404 → 0.452 (~12%); typical 1-day ATR move now ~4–5% suggests room for a further push if resistance breaks.

2. Moving averages (trend tools)

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.378 (rough estimate from last 20 closes). Price is ~17% above the 20SMA, confirming momentum off the October base.
• 9–14 period EMAs (approx): mid-to-high 0.38s–0.39s, both below spot; bull alignment with 9EMA > 20SMA and price > 9EMA. Near-term support zone from EMAs sits well below price, so pullbacks into low 0.43s–high 0.42s should attract bids.
• 50D SMA likely above spot (legacy levels 0.49–0.52 pre-crash), highlighting medium-term overhead supply as price approaches 0.47–0.50. Interpretation: Short-term trend-followers have control; medium-term participants may fade into 0.47–0.50, capping immediate upside beyond ATR unless volume expands.

3. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 58 (derived from last 14 changes). Bullish, not overbought. Room to push toward 60s/low 70s if 0.45–0.453 breaks.
• MACD (daily): Bullish crossover and rising histogram post 10/23. Likely still near/just below the zero-line, which leaves scope for an acceleration as/if price breaks 0.4528.
• Stochastics: Likely mid-high zone, consistent with an uptrend approaching resistance, but not screaming exhaustion. Interpretation: Momentum supports continuation; not stretched enough to demand a contrarian short.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR14 (daily) estimate ~0.020–0.022. A 1xATR move from 0.443 projects to ~0.463–0.465; 1.2xATR to ~0.468–0.470 if momentum expands on breakout.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.378; Upper ≈ 0.458; Lower ≈ 0.298 (rough). Spot is below the upper band, leaving room to tag ~0.458–0.462. A clean break/close above the upper band often accompanies stop runs.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR): Mid ~0.378; upper envelope likely near ~0.410 + 1.5*ATR → ~0.441–0.445 earlier, now being pressed; an expansion through the KC upper aligns with trend continuation. Interpretation: Volatility supports a push into 0.458–0.465; 0.468 possible on momentum.

5. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Daily volume expanded on 10/24–10/26 during the advance (74–89M), constructive for trend persistence.
• Intraday 10/27–10/28: multiple tests of 0.447–0.453 with pullbacks that held ~0.441–0.443; shows responsive buying. Session VWAP estimate ~0.444–0.446; price oscillating around VWAP suggests absorption near current levels.
• Volume profile: High participation in the 0.33–0.37 base; thinner profile 0.42–0.45 can facilitate swift moves; heavier historic supply 0.47–0.50 (September congestion) likely to slow advances. Interpretation: Good demand just below; thinner overhead to ~0.46 before meeting heavier supply.

6. Fibonacci mapping (swing 10/10 low to 0.4528 high)

• Swing: Low 0.3303 → High 0.4528; Δ=0.1225.
• Retracements: 38.2% ~0.406, 50% ~0.392, 61.8% ~0.377. Price already reclaimed all retracement levels and is holding above them.
• Extensions: 1.272 ~0.486, 1.618 ~0.527. Near-term tactical extension sitting at ~0.486 aligns with late-August/early-September supply zone; a stretch target if 0.462–0.468 clears on strong volume. Interpretation: As long as price holds above ~0.428–0.431 (pivot/micro-structure), path of least resistance remains up toward 0.462 first, then 0.468, and possibly 0.486 on a squeeze.

7. Ichimoku (directional filter)

• Daily: Price is above Tenkan (≈0.39) and likely above/near Kijun (≈0.41–0.42). Cloud (Kumo) from prior regime likely overhead into the 0.46–0.50 zone. A move into/through a thin portion of the cloud around 0.46 would favor a quick test higher; thick cloud zones near ~0.49–0.50 likely resist on first touch.
• 4H/hourly: Price mostly rides above a thin cloud; pullbacks to cloud/VWAP have been bought. Interpretation: Ichimoku supports buying dips while acknowledging cloud resistance into 0.46–0.50.

8. Pivots and key levels

• Classic pivots (based on 10/26 H/L/C ~0.4389/0.4196/0.4352):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.4312
  • R1 ≈ 0.4429 (tested/holding above)
  • R2 ≈ 0.4505 (aligns with 0.45 round and intraday supply)
  • R3 ≈ 0.4622 (confluence with ATR/Bollinger upper reach)
• Horizontal S/R from recent structure:
  • Supports: 0.441–0.443 (VWAP band), 0.435–0.438 (10/27–28 intraday shelf), 0.428–0.431 (10/1–2/30 pivots), 0.405–0.410 (breakout origin 10/24)
  • Resistances: 0.448–0.453 (yesterday’s highs and R2), 0.458–0.462 (Bollinger upper/R3), 0.468–0.475 (ATR1.2–1.4 and prior September micro-shelf), 0.486 (Fib 1.272) Interpretation: Clean roadmap: buy the dip into 0.441–0.443 with a first target near R3 (0.462). A break above 0.4528 likely catalyzes a stop run toward 0.458–0.462.

9. Candles and microstructure

• 10/24 bullish expansion candle followed by constructive closes 10/25–10/26 shows demand. 10/27 intraday reached 0.4528 and rejected modestly; no heavy selloff—suggests absorption rather than distribution. Multiple intraday wicks around 0.441–0.443 indicate buyers stepping in on shallow dips.
• Liquidity map: Resting stops likely above 0.4528; sweeping that level could trigger a momentum burst to 0.46+. Below, liquidity pockets sit 0.439–0.441 and deeper at 0.433–0.435.

10. Indicator confluence (summary)

• Trend: Positive short-term (price > 9/20MA, higher highs/lows), medium-term overhead supply 0.47–0.50.
• Momentum: RSI ~58, MACD rising—supports another leg.
• Volatility: ATR supports a 0.018–0.025 upside window; Bollinger upper near 0.458–0.462 is reachable.
• Pivots: Already above R1; R2 0.4505 is the next test; R3 0.4622 is the tactical target.
• Profile/VWAP: Dips to 0.441–0.443 are being bought; VWAP band under price offers entry. Net: Bullish skew for a continuation move, favoring buy-the-dip with a target near 0.462.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Break-and-retest under 0.45 resolves higher; stops above 0.4528 fuel a push to 0.458–0.462; intraday consolidation likely below 0.465.
• Range case (≈30%): Chop 0.438–0.452 with failed break attempts; end near 0.445–0.450; dip buy still offers partial-to-full exit near 0.450–0.452.
• Bear case (≈10%): Loss of 0.438 shelf → probe 0.433–0.435; stronger risk if 0.431 snaps (pivot base) to revisit 0.425–0.428. This would likely require broader market weakness.

12. Execution plan

• Primary tactic: Buy the dip into the intraday VWAP/pivot shelf 0.441–0.443. This captures favorable R:R against a protective stop below 0.433–0.434 (analysis-only risk parameter), aiming for a take-profit near R3/Boll upper 0.462.
• Alternative momentum tactic: If no dip, an add/secondary trigger on clean 15–60m close above 0.453 with volume; then target 0.462–0.468. (For this response, we commit to the dip entry to optimize expected value.)
• Position sizing and risk (analysis context): From 0.4415 entry, TP 0.4620 yields ~+4.6%; a stop under 0.4335 would be ~-1.8%—R:R ~2.5:1. If extension prints, trail to 0.468.

13. Time/flow considerations

• Crypto trades 24/7; liquidity improves during US/EU overlap. The 0.452–0.453 breakout attempt is likely to occur during peak liquidity; if Asia session continues to defend 0.441–0.443, the setup remains valid into the next session.

Conclusion and call

• The technical mosaic (trend > momentum > pivots > volatility) supports a Buy-the-dip approach. Optimal entry is just below spot at 0.4415 (around VWAP/pivot). Initial take-profit aligns with R3/Boll upper near 0.4620, with potential to overshoot toward 0.468 if momentum accelerates after stops at 0.4528 are run.

Actionable levels

• Buy limit: 0.4415 (±0.001 tolerance)
• Take-profit: 0.4620 (conservative, with discretion to extend to 0.468 on strong tape)
• (Analysis-only stop reference: 0.4335–0.4340 to preserve structure below intraday shelves)

Price path expectation (24h): 0.441–0.443 bid holds → probe 0.450–0.453 → stop run → 0.458–0.462. Pullback risk to 0.438 acceptable; loss of 0.431 invalidates the momentum thesis.