Chainlink Price Analysis Powered by AI

Chainlink (LINK) Primed for Another Leg Down: Expect Retest of $12.90 as Rally Fails at Resistance

The past three months demonstrate extensive volatility, ranging from lows at $10.9 (early April) to highs above $17.8 (mid-May).
Since the peak above $17.8, LINK has been in a gradual downtrend with intermittent recoveries, settling into a lower high/lower low structure.
The last week's action shows LINK rebounding from a local support ($11.6–12.0 zone, 6/21–6/23) and stabilizing around $13.30-$13.40.

20-Day SMA: Rapid, recent volatility and price reversals suggest the 20-day SMA is slightly declining, close to the $13.30–13.40 current price band.
50-Day SMA: Based on the rounded moves and prior highs, the 50-day SMA is situated higher, likely in the $14.00–$14.50 band, indicating underlying bearish pressure.
Price is currently below both the 50 and 20-day SMAs, confirming a prevailing bearish-to-neutral bias in the short and medium term.

Volume spikes are seen around major moves ($11.6 low on 6/22, $13.7–14.1 on 6/24, $17+ in May).
Recent upticks in volume as price approaches $13.30–13.40, yet not matching earlier capitulation volumes ($500M+ range seen in May and early June).
The lack of explosive volume on the current bounce suggests absence of strong buying conviction.

Immediate Support: $13.00–$13.10, aligning with recent hourly candles and June 26–28 closes.
Deeper Support: $12.85 (pivot 6/23–6/24), with ultimate strong support at $12.50–$11.60 zone (recent capitulation low).
Immediate Resistance: $13.40–$13.50 (hourly highs 6/29), rising to $13.75 and $14.00 for higher timeframe retests.
Key Resistance: $14.50 (top of recent range and aligns with 50SMA).

Last few daily candles print small bodies—signaling indecision after rebound from $11.6. Recent hourly candles show repeated wicks above $13.35 but rejection at $13.45.
No apparent bullish engulfing patterns or reversal formations—combined with capped upside attempts, signals waning upward momentum.
Consolidation around $13.30 is forming a lower base, but lower wicks show some buyer interest at dips.

Estimated RSI (14): Rebounded from oversold ($12.0–12.5) but likely still <50 (neutral–mild bear). No signs of aggressive upside momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: Short-term recovery from oversold, but slowing as price consolidates. Potential bearish cross forming as price fails to reclaim $13.40–13.50.

MACD is likely below zero after sustained downtrend, with histogram flattening—no clear bull reversal.
Momentum wanes above $13.40, sellers are re-emerging at every lower high.

Recent wide daily swings ($1+) are compressing into tighter ranges ($0.10–$0.20 per hour), indicating that a new directional move is brewing.
ATR is likely declining, alluding to an impending breakout from current range.

Strong liquidity at $13.00–$13.30 (seen in multiple high-volume rejections lower), but limited commitment above $13.40 (each probe stuffed on light volume).

The entire move from May's highs ($17.8) to June's low ($11.6) is a completed A-B-C correction. The present move up is likely a corrective bounce (B/C leg), not an impulsive rally.
Price recently rejected near the 38.2% Fib retracement of the last major drop, suggesting bears remain in control.

After the strong capitulation, a weak bear flag or falling wedge is forming. Still, the pattern is unresolved, and no strong breakout has materialized.
Hourly chart's repeated failure at $13.45–$13.50 fits the classic bearish retest pattern.

There’s a sense of exhausted sellers at recent lows, but no aggression from bulls. Sideways grind suggests market participants are waiting for a clearer signal.
Odds favor mean reversion lower before a sustainable bullish reversal.

Immediate Technical Bias: Bearish-to-neutral; failed rallies, MACD and RSI not confirming upside follow-through.
Probable Price Action: Expect resistance at $13.40–$13.50 to cap upside. Price is likely to retest support at $13.10, with high risk for a push to $12.90–$13.00 if sellers press the advantage. A decisive break below $13.00 could trigger a rapid flush towards $12.80 or lower, especially if volume returns.
Risk: Minor short squeezes to $13.50 cannot be ruled out, but overall upside is capped unless $13.75 is reclaimed on volume.

Given the persistent lower highs, waning momentum, and light-volume advances, the optimal stance is Sell (Short Position).

Entry: Ideal to initiate short around $13.35 (current price), tighten short bias on any spike to $13.40–13.45.
Exit/Take-Profit: Target a move to $12.90 (previous high-volume zone, aligns with deeper support cluster). Aggressive traders could hold for $12.70 if there's a breakdown.

Recommendation: Sell/Short around $13.35–$13.40, target $12.90 for the next 24 hours. Place stops above $13.55 in case of an unexpected reversal.