LRC compresses above the 50% Fib—primed for a PP→R1 rotation toward 0.106

Executive summary

• Regime: After an outsized upside expansion on Aug 31 (high 0.1178; record volume), LRC is in a high-level consolidation above the 50% retracement of the Aug 25–Aug 31 impulse. Price is oscillating around the 0.100–0.102 pivot with contracting intraday ranges and balanced order flow. This favors a buy-the-dip, range-to-slightly-bullish bias into the next 24 hours.
• 24h view: Base case is a grind higher from 0.100–0.101 toward 0.104–0.106, with key resistance at 0.1046 and 0.1058. Bear risk is a liquidity sweep below 0.0996 into 0.0989–0.0976 before reversion.
• Trade plan: Long on a pullback into 0.1003 (limit). First target 0.1058 (yesterday’s pivot R1 confluence and under prior intraday supply). Protective risk (for planning) sits below 0.0987 (hourly structure).

Multi-timeframe market structure and trend Daily (swing context)

• Trend: From late June troughs (~0.069 on Jun 22) LRC established higher lows through July, broke out mid-July into the 0.10s, corrected late July to ~0.082, then stair-stepped higher through mid/late August. The Aug 31 surge to 0.1178 on extreme volume marked a new swing high. Since then, price has held above the 50% retracement and is compressing — typical of a bull flag/rectangle consolidation after impulse.
• Key levels (daily): • Support: 0.1005 (50% Fib of 0.083218→0.117801), 0.0996/0.0990 (recent hourly swing lows), 0.0976 (Sep 1 low, also near 61.8% Fib at ~0.0965), 0.0934–0.0941 (Aug 22–25 closes). • Resistance: 0.1046 (Fib 38.2% at 0.10458 and today’s intraday supply), 0.1069–0.1091 (Sep 2–3 highs), 0.1119–0.1122 (pivot R2 calc and Sep 2 high), then 0.1178 (Aug 31 high).
• Moving averages (approx.): 20D SMA trending up and likely in low 0.09s; 50D SMA in high 0.08s/low 0.09s. Price above both MAs – bullish tilt, pullbacks favored to be bought.
• Momentum: Daily RSI likely mid-50s to low-60s after the spike then cool-off, consistent with bullish but not overbought conditions. Daily MACD remains positive but histogram contracting – consolidation not reversal.
• Volatility: Daily ATR expanded into Aug 31, then began to compress. This squeeze-on-elevated-base typically resolves in trend direction (up) unless key supports break.

Hourly (execution context)

• Range mapping (past 24–36h): Price traded 0.0990–0.1046 with a selling wave at 14:00Z that faded back into the prior range; support has repeatedly formed around the psychological 0.1000 and 0.0993–0.0996 shelf.
• VWAP & mean reversion: Today’s session has oscillated around VWAP near ~0.1012–0.1014. Price currently sits fractionally below to near VWAP, a neutral-to-slightly-bullish setup when higher timeframe remains constructive.
• Bollinger Bands (hourly, approx.): Bands narrowed after the mid-day thrust; mid-band near ~0.101. Price hugging mid with upper band ~0.103–0.104 and lower ~0.099–0.0995: a contained range that invites buy-the-dip entries near lower band for a push to upper band.
• Momentum (hourly): RSI hovering around 45–55 with shallow positive divergences on the later lows; stochastic turns from mid-zone hint at a new upswing attempt. MACD on H1 is near zero, consistent with a reset/coil rather than a breakdown.
• Ichimoku (hourly, qualitative): Price wicking around the cloud top with Tenkan ≈ Kijun clustering near 0.101. Flat Kijun/VWAP confluence acts as a magnet; staying above it biases a retest of 0.103–0.1046.

Volume and participation

• OBV/flow: Since the Aug 31 expansion, pullbacks showed diminishing downside volume versus upside thrust days. Today’s largest hourly sell burst (14:00Z) didn’t cascade, suggesting supply absorption around 0.101–0.100.
• Big picture: Aug 31 posted extreme volume (309M) with a strong close. Subsequent sessions retained >0.10 despite retraces, indicating acceptance at higher value – a hallmark of re-accumulation rather than distribution.

Key confluences and levels

• Fibonacci of Aug 25 (0.083218) → Aug 31 (0.117801): 38.2% = 0.10458; 50% = 0.10051; 61.8% = 0.09645. Current price oscillates between 50% and 38.2% — classic decision zone. A hold above 50% with repeated tests of 38.2% usually resolves higher.
• Classical pivots using Sep 4 H/L/C (H 0.107803, L 0.097551, C 0.099684): • PP = 0.101679 • R1 = 0.105807 (aligns with our target cluster) • S1 = 0.095555 • R2 = 0.111931 Price is near PP. A push from PP to R1 is the typical day’s range in consolidations.
• Support shelves: 0.1000 round, 0.0993–0.0996 intraday shelf, 0.0989 prior hourly low, 0.0975 day low. These are obvious liquidity pockets and stop zones below which traps can form.
• Supply: 0.1044–0.1046 (today’s high cluster and Fib 38.2%), then 0.1069–0.1091 (early Sep highs).

Patterns and frameworks

• Bull flag/rectangle: Since Sep 1, a horizontal consolidation has developed between ~0.099–0.107 after a strong advance. The lack of follow-through selling below 0.0976 and repeated recapture of 0.100–0.101 support the flag interpretation.
• Wyckoff lens: Aug 31 = Sign of Strength (SoS) on volume. Sep 1–5 = Back-Up/Last Point of Support (LPS) region. Each dip into 0.099–0.100 finds demand. That favors continuation once supply at 0.1046/0.1069 is absorbed.
• Elliott (short-term): ABC corrective structure appears complete at 0.0996–0.0967 (A), 0.107 (B), 0.0996 (C). Starting impulse i may be forming; next 24h could be wave ii→iii press toward 0.105–0.107.

Risk, volatility, and scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Range-to-up day. Hold above 0.1000–0.1005, rotate to 0.1032–0.1046. If 0.1046 breaks with momentum, extension to 0.1058–0.1069 (R1/early Sep supply) by session end.
• Neutral chop (25%): Ping between 0.0996 and 0.1035 around VWAP/PP with low follow-through; ideal for scalping but still offers a dip-buy near 0.100–0.1005.
• Bear sweep (20%): Quick liquidity probe to 0.0990–0.0987; if reclaimed, it’s a bear trap and strengthens the long case. Sustained acceptance below 0.0987 opens 0.0976 (and 0.0965 Fib 61.8%) – that would postpone the breakout and invalidate the immediate long trigger.

Indicator scorecard (directional impact)

• Trend (Daily MAs): Bullish (supports buy dips).
• Momentum (Daily RSI/MACD): Mildly bullish, cooling – favors consolidation then push.
• Momentum (Hourly RSI/MACD/Stoch): Reset and turning up – short-term bullish.
• Volatility (ATR/Bollinger): Contracting after expansion – poised for range expansion; bias is up given structural context.
• Volume/OBV: Constructive; expansions up, pullbacks on lighter volume – bullish.
• Pivots/Fibs: Strong confluence at 0.1046/0.1058 above; 0.1005/0.0996 below – tradable map.
• Ichimoku/VWAP: Price near cloud top/VWAP; holding above tilts to upside tests – bullish-neutral.

Trade plan and execution

• Bias: Buy (Long position).
• Optimal entry: 0.1003 limit (buy the dip into the 50% Fib/round-number pocket, slightly above the 0.1000 liquidity shelf to increase fill probability while avoiding the most crowded line).
• Primary target (take profit): 0.1058 (classical pivot R1 from Sep 4; just under the 0.1060–0.1069 supply to increase fill odds). That captures the PP→R1 rotation and aligns with the top of today’s supply box.
• Risk management (contextual): Invalidation for the setup sits below 0.0987 (beneath the 0.0989 hourly swing and below the developing higher-low structure). That would imply acceptance back inside the lower value area and favors a deeper pullback to 0.0976–0.0965.
• Scaling plan (optional): If aggressive, scale 40% at 0.1008, 40% at 0.1000, 20% at 0.0993. Exit partials near 0.1044 and run remainder to 0.1058.

Why not short?

• Shorts are counter the higher-timeframe structure (price above key daily MAs, holding above 50% of the recent impulse). With volatility compressing, breakouts are more likely to go with the prior trend unless support fails. Short entries make more sense on acceptance below 0.0987 with expanding volume.

Expected path

• Early session: Probe 0.1005→0.1000, find bids; rotate to 0.1028–0.1035.
• Mid session: Attempt on 0.1046; first touch may reject, second attempt likely through if volume expands.
• Late session: If 0.1046 clears, overshoot to 0.1058–0.1063; otherwise settle 0.102–0.104.

Summary

• Setup quality: Moderate-high. Clear levels, multi-tool confluences, defined invalidation, and favorable PP→R1 glide path.
• Decision: Buy dips into 0.100–0.1005 with 0.1058 take-profit in the next 24 hours. Watch 0.0987 as the invalidation pivot.