LRC rejects R1 at 0.0623 — Short the pop into resistance for a move back to 0.059

Executive summary

• Instrument: Loopring (LRC)
• Current price: 0.06056
• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways within 0.0580–0.0625 range, downside skew
• Trade idea: Fade rallies into 0.0618–0.0623 resistance; target a retest of 0.059 area (and possibly 0.0582 if momentum accelerates)

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Clear downtrend since early September. Sequential lower highs from ~0.107 (Sep) to ~0.070–0.068 (late Oct) to ~0.062 (today). Lower lows from ~0.083 (late Sep) to ~0.064 (Oct 30) to ~0.0589 (Nov 4) with an intraday dip to ~0.0581 (Nov 6 hourly).
• 4H / 1H structure: A descending channel since late Oct. Today’s 18:00 UTC hourly candle spiked to ~0.06230, then failed and rolled over back to ~0.0606—classic lower-high rejection in a downtrend.
• Key zones:
  • Resistance: 0.0618–0.0623 (today’s spike and pivot confluence), 0.0643 (Oct 30 close), 0.0664 (Oct 31 close), 0.0676 (Nov 2 close), 0.0707 (Oct 26 high)
  • Support: 0.0593–0.0588 (recent floor cluster; hourly base), 0.0564 (Nov 4 low), 0.0503 (Oct 10 capitulation wick)

2. Moving averages and trend-following signals

• Daily SMA(20) ≈ 0.066 (est.): Price (0.0606) below → bearish, suggests mean reversion cap ~0.065–0.066 if any bounce extends.
• Daily SMA(50) likely ≈ 0.078–0.082 given Sep–Oct prices: Price well below → entrenched downtrend.
• EMA(12/26) MACD lens: 12 EMA < 26 EMA; MACD below zero, histogram mildly contracting after today’s bounce but still negative → momentum remains down; any rally likely corrective.
• 1H EMAs: 8/21 EMA bear alignment post 19:00–21:00 UTC roll-over; price failing to hold above intraday EMAs confirms sell-the-rip dynamic.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) rough calc ≈ 32: Oversold zone but not extreme capitulation. In downtrends, RSI can ride 30–40 for extended periods → bounces are selling opportunities until structure changes.
• 1H RSI: Bullish divergence preceded the 18:00 pump; that impulse failed at resistance, RSI now back to mid-40s/50s and rolling—supports a fade.
• Stochastic (daily): Mid-low and curling, but against a dominant downtrend; signals are weaker without base formation.

4. Volatility and range analysis

• Daily ATR(14) estimate ≈ 0.0025–0.0030. Expect next 24h realized range roughly ±0.0028 around a mid-level (0.0605), implying 0.0577–0.0633 envelope. Skew is to the downside given trend and repeated failures at 0.062–0.063.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle ≈ 0.066; lower band ≈ 0.059 (est.). Price sitting just above/beside the lower band after tagging it today; a small mean-reversion push happened (to 0.0623) but was sold—typical of trend continuation.
• Keltner Channels: With a declining midline, price living near/below lower channel implies persistent sell pressure.

5. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Structural volume: Big spike during Oct 10 break; since then, liquidity reduced. Recent days showed moderate volumes with a notable hourly burst at 18:00 UTC today up to ~0.0623, which was faded—suggests supply overwhelming demand at that level.
• OBV (qualitative): Downtrend since Oct 10; today’s OBV uptick on the 18:00 candle failed to shift regime. No sustained accumulation footprint.

6. Pattern recognition and structure

• Descending channel / bear flag: Rebounds to channel mid/upper boundary have been sold; current rejection at ~0.0623 aligns with a channel upper quadrant and pivot resistance.
• Descending triangle potential: Flat-ish support cluster 0.0588–0.0593 with lower highs compressing from above. Breaks from such patterns tend to continue lower in bear regimes (measured move could point toward 0.056–0.055 if/when it breaks).
• Liquidity sweep: Today’s spike to ~0.0623 likely ran stops/liquidity above prior intraday highs before reversing, a common bearish continuation tell.

7. Fibonacci and classical pivots

• Fib from Oct 31 (~0.06643) to Nov 4 low (~0.05639):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.0603; 50% ≈ 0.0614; 61.8% ≈ 0.0626
  • Today’s high 0.0623 rejected between the 50% and 61.8% retracement—textbook corrective rally stall.
• Floor trader pivots (using recent H/L/C bundle around Nov 4):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.05935; R1 ≈ 0.06231; S1 ≈ 0.05596
  • Price tapped R1 ≈ 0.0623 and failed—very clean confluence with intraday high.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; lagging span below price. Full bearish stack; cloud ahead likely thick/resistance. Any rallies into the Kijun/Tenkan are likely to get sold unless a decisive regime change occurs.

9. VWAP and intraday context

• Session VWAP (approx.) sits near 0.0606–0.0608. Price is oscillating around VWAP after the failed breakout, indicating seller absorption above VWAP. Shorting slightly above VWAP into 0.0618–0.0622 offers favorable asymmetry.

10. Quant lens and probabilities (subjective)

• Base case (55%): Range 0.0588–0.0622 with a drift lower; closes the 24h window near 0.0595–0.0602.
• Bear extension (30%): Clean break of 0.0588/0.0585 leads to 0.0577–0.0568 tests (ATR extension) before responsive buying appears.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong reclaim above 0.0626 (Fib 61.8%) squeezes to 0.0643 (Oct 30 close) or even 0.0664 (Oct 31) where larger supply sits.

11. Risk management thoughts

• Ideal short entry: 0.0618–0.0622 (into R1/Fib/resistance confluence).
• Take-profit 1: 0.0590 (just above the recent support shelf to improve odds of fill). Extension TP: 0.0582–0.0577 (if momentum accelerates).
• Suggested invalidation/stop (not part of order schema but critical): 0.0634–0.0636 (above 61.8% Fib and today’s sweep zone), preserving ≈2:1 R:R if TP at 0.0590.

12. Why not buy?

• While daily RSI ~32 hints at oversold, recent rallies are corrective and repeatedly sold. The intraday rejection at a perfect confluence (R1 + Fib 50–61.8% + channel upper) argues for selling strength rather than buying dips until the market can reclaim and hold >0.0626–0.0643 with improving breadth/volume.

13. 24-hour price path expectation

• Expect early attempts to probe 0.0615–0.0622 to meet supply; base case sees roll-over to 0.0590–0.0595. A decisive break under 0.0588 opens 0.0582/0.0577. Conversely, a firm push above 0.0626 could squeeze late shorts toward 0.0643, but odds are lower absent fresh momentum/volume.

Conclusion

• Confluence across trend, moving averages, MACD, RSI behavior-in-trend, Bollinger/Keltner position, Fib/pivots, and intraday VWAP rejection supports a short-on-strength plan over the next 24 hours.

Trade plan

• Position: Short (Sell)
• Entry (limit): 0.0619 (inside the 0.0618–0.0622 resistance pocket)
• Take profit: 0.0589 (front-run support cluster)
• Invalidation/stop (advisory): 0.0635
• Optional add/reload: On breakdown <0.0588, look for momentum continuation to 0.0577; if employed, trail stop above 0.0596 after breakdown retest.