Litecoin’s Lower-High Squeeze: Short the Pop Into 111s for a Break Toward 109–108.7

Executive Summary

• Bias for next 24 hours: Bearish-to-neutral. Expect a drift to test 110.15 → 109.90 → 109.20 with a break opening 108.6. Odds of a clean upside break above 111.8-112.0 are lower given repeated failures and broader downtrend momentum.
• Trade idea: Short a pop into 111.3–111.7 (limit entry), target 108.7. Place a protective stop above 112.4 (discussed for risk control).

Market Structure and Trend Context (Daily)

• Primary trend since mid-July: Uptrend topped on Aug 13 near 133.92; subsequent corrective phase produced a series of lower highs and lower lows.
• Recent sequence of highs: 133.92 (Aug 13) → 122.79 (Aug 22) → 121.35 (Aug 23) → 118.20 (Aug 24) → 113.76 (Aug 28). Clear lower-high staircase.
• Recent sequence of lows: 117.70 (Aug 18) → 112.49 (Aug 19) → 109.44 (Aug 25). A minor base formed 108.6–109.9 over the past three sessions.
• Current daily close-in-progress: 110.33, consolidating just above the important 109 shelf.

Support/Resistance Map

• Immediate resistance: 111.6–111.8 (intraday spikes, R1 pivot). Above that: 112.7 (R2), 113.8–114.6 (daily supply cluster from Aug 27–28), 116.0–116.5, then 118.8 (Fib 38.2%).
• Immediate support: 110.15–110.30 (intraday pivot/closing prints), 109.90, 109.23 (S1), 108.60–108.90 (recent lows). Below: 106.7–106.6 (S3/late-July lows), 105.9–105.2 (lower band/older daily supports), 103.75 (Aug 1 low) if downside accelerates beyond 24h window.

Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 38.8 (derived from last 15 closes). Sub-50 bearish momentum with mild downside bias; not yet deeply oversold. Leaves room for a further push lower before a stronger bounce.
• Stochastics (qualitative): hovering in the low-mid range; no bullish crossover confirmed. Aligns with a drift lower/sideways.
• MACD (qualitative): Negative and flattening; histogram modestly negative. Favors sell-the-rip rather than chase breaks, unless 110.1 gives way.

Moving Averages and Trend Filters

• 5D SMA ≈ 111.39 < 10D SMA ≈ 114.22 < 20D SMA ≈ 117.33. Bearish alignment (short-term below medium, below intermediate). Price (110.33) sits below all three, confirming short-term downtrend.
• 50D EMA/SMA (approx.): Likely clustered around 112–114 given recent path; price is below, reinforcing a cautious stance.

Volatility and Bands

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midline ≈ 117.3. Estimated lower band ≈ 105–106 (stdev ~6). Price is riding the lower half of the envelope, with no sharp band pierce today. This configuration favors either a continuation grind lower toward 109–108.6 or a mean-revert bounce capped by 113–115.
• ATR(14) daily (est.) ≈ 4.0–5.0. Room for a 2–3 dollar swing intra-session is routine; a full ATR move could test 108s on a breakdown.

Ichimoku (Daily, approximate)

• Tenkan-sen (9-mid) ≈ 115.9; Kijun-sen (26-mid) ≈ 118.8. Price is below both, bearish.
• Senkou Span A ≈ 117.4; Span B ≈ 105.2. Price trades in/near the lower cloud area when projected, indicating congestion beneath resistance. Chikou likely below price, consistent with bearish bias.

Fibonacci Structure

• Swing: High 133.92 (Aug 13) to Low 109.44 (Aug 25). Retracement levels:
  • 23.6%: 115.2 (untouched on the post-low bounce); 38.2%: 118.8; 50%: 121.7; 61.8%: 124.6.
• The failure even to reclaim 23.6% underscores weak post-selloff demand; rallies are for selling until 115+ is reclaimed.

Volume and Breadth

• Daily volume tapered post-Aug 25 selloff; lift attempts toward 113–114 lacked volume confirmation. OBV (qualitative) trending lower; distribution characteristics persist.

Intraday Microstructure (Aug 31 hourly)

• Range: ~110.16–111.82. Repeated lower highs: 111.80 → 111.57 → 111.41 → 111.27 → 110.97; flat support at 110.16–110.30.
• Pattern: Descending triangle formation. Measured move height ≈ 1.6 → breakdown target ≈ 108.6, aligning with daily support.
• Pivot framework (using Aug 30 H/L/C 111.13/108.61/110.81):
  • Pivot P ≈ 110.18; R1 ≈ 111.76 (tagged precisely), R2 ≈ 112.71; S1 ≈ 109.23; S2 ≈ 107.66; S3 ≈ 106.71.
  • Price oscillates around the pivot, failing at R1; bias suggests rotation toward S1.

Regression/Channels

• 10–15 session linear regression slope negative; price below regression midline. Expect mean-revert attempts to fade near 111.5–112.7.

Wyckoff Lens

• Post-markdown, current action looks like a weak, low-volume sideways to down drift beneath resistance (no spring, no sign of strength). More characteristic of redistribution than accumulation.

Scenario Analysis (Next 24 Hours)

• Base case (60%): Consolidation resolves lower. Break 110.15/110.00 → 109.23 (S1) → probe 108.6–108.9. Close near 109–109.5.
• Range case (30%): Hold 110–111.6 oscillation, whipsaws around pivot 110.2. No decisive break.
• Bull surprise (10%): Stop run above 111.8 → 112.7 (R2) tag; failure expected into 113.3–113.8 unless volume surge flips momentum.

Confluence Summary

• Bearish: Price below 5/10/20D SMAs; RSI < 50; MACD negative; failures at R1; descending triangle intraday; sub-23.6% Fib recovery; OBV drift lower.
• Bullish counterpoints: Multi-touch support 108.6–109.9; Bollinger lower-band vicinity; daily cloud bottom near 105 offers eventual cushion.
• Net: Short-the-rip offers best asymmetry with clearly defined invalidation above 112.4–112.7.

Risk Management (for context)

• Proposed stop (not part of output fields): 112.40 (above R1 cluster and intraday LH line). Risk ≈ 0.95 from a 111.45 entry.
• Target 108.70: Reward ≈ 2.75 → R:R ≈ 2.9:1. If momentum accelerates, scale extra at 107.7 (S2), but primary TP 108.7 is realistic within 24h.

Execution Notes

• Entry style: Use a limit sell 111.45 on a drift/push into 111.3–111.7 supply. If no bounce, an alternative is a stop-entry sell on break 110.10 with tighter stop, but the specified plan favors the bounce-fade.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence points to a modest downside continuation toward 109.2 first and 108.7 next. Short bias remains valid while price stays beneath 111.8–112.4.