1. Comprehensive Technical Analysis

A. Trend Analysis (Daily and Intraday)

1. Daily Trend (From April through July 12, 2025):

• Long-Term View: Significant uptrend from April lows ($75) to May highs ($105-106). This rally was followed by choppy, sideways action, with periodic pullbacks to the low $80s and rebounds to the mid-$90s.
• Recent Pattern: Post-May peak, we observed a corrective phase with multiple failed attempts to reclaim the $100+ region. Most of June shows price consolidation in the mid-to-high $80s, with failed breakout attempts. July saw a successful bullish thrust from $85 July 1 to a recent top at $98 July 11.
• Current Position: Price is in retracement mode after peaking at $98.11. Current value ($92.08) is below recent highs but still holding above key prior resistance levels ($89-$90), which are now acting as support.

2. Intraday Structure (July 11 into July 12):

• Overnight: Post-$98 high, the price slid steadily, making lower highs and lows, with brief attempts at recovery stalling below $95.
• Today’s Session: The price failed to hold above $94, broke down to as low as ~$91, and after a minor bounce is now stabilizing around $92.08. Recent candles show narrowing intraday volatility, suggesting indecision but no strong reversal signs (yet).

B. Chart Patterns & Support/Resistance

• Double/Triple Top Zone: The $94-$95 area (recent rejection) and $98 (major intraday top July 11) mark formidable resistance. The lower $90s around $89-$91 are shaping up as the next critical support—recent dips were defended here intraday.
• Recent Reversal Formation: There is no confirmed bullish reversal pattern on the hourly/daily—no hammer, bullish engulfing, nor any significant basing seen at today’s lows. However, volume on the selloffs is subsiding, suggesting bearish momentum may be exhausting.

C. Volume and Momentum Indicators

• Volume Analysis: May's surge was accompanied by high volume, confirming buying strength. Recent pullbacks (July 12) came on relatively weaker volume, hinting that much of the selling is profit-taking, not panic.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Estimation from price action—RSI likely dropped from overbought territory on July 11 towards the lower part of the neutral range (~40-50), consistent with a corrective pullback, not a selling climax.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): With price falling from $98 to $92, the MACD would now be crossing bearish but the histogram likely flattening, signaling decreasing downside momentum.

D. Moving Averages (MA)

• Short-term (20-EMA/21-EMA): Price currently sits just around the short-term moving average, but with the break below $94, the short-term trend is now neutral to slightly bearish.
• Medium-term (50-SMA): This likely sits in the $89–$90 region. The recent dip tested and found buyers there, suggesting it remains strong support.
• Long-term (200-SMA): Well below current market, indicating long-term trend remains bullish.

E. Fibonacci Retracement (May-July swing)

• 61.8% Retracement (from recent $98 high to July’s $83 low): The 61.8% retracement zone stands around $88.5–$89. This aligns with major price congestion/support from June.
• Current Price ($92) sits at/just above 38.2–50% retracement of the rally, which is often a rebuy zone in uptrends.

F. Volatility Analysis (ATR, Candle Ranges)

• Average True Range (ATR): Recent daily ranges have narrowed post-spike, indicating volatility compression—which often precedes major directional moves. After such a strong rally, price is digesting gains. Next move could be sharp.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the midline, having mean-reverted from upper band extremes. Further compression suggests an impending breakout.

G. Order Flow, Sentiment, and Market Catalysts

• Order Flow: Diminished volume on push down to $92 suggests sellers are less aggressive. Buyers are starting to soak up supply at these levels.
• Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bullish, due to holding higher lows and the lack of broad-based panic.
• Correlation: No major crypto market panic evident, as seen in stable recent price behavior; LTC is following its own technicals.

H. Alternative Tools (Oscillator Divergences, Elliott Wave)

• Oscillators: No clear bullish divergence yet, but momentum loss on selling indicates potential for basing.
• Elliott Wave: After a 5-wave rally from low $80s to $98, this corrective wave appears to be a Wave 2 or 4, suggesting the subsequent move is likely to be impulsive and upward as part of the next leg higher.

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2. Integrating Findings: Step-by-Step Conclusion

1. Trend: Overall structure is bullish but in near-term correction.
2. Momentum: Downtrend weakening; sellers losing strength.
3. Volume: No panic; buyers present on dips.
4. Technical Zone: $91–92 is an attractive rebuy zone (prior resistance turned support, aligns with significant MA and Fibonacci levels).
5. Risk: A break below $89 would risk a deeper correction; currently, this is unlikely without a strong bearish catalyst.
6. Potential: If price holds here, next target is a retest of $94–95, then $98+.

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Final Recommendation

• This is a prime spot for a long (Buy) position.
• Optimal entry: Slightly below current market, around $91.20 (to capture minor dips).
• Take profit at $94.50 (prior resistance) and scale up towards $98 if momentum accelerates.
• Place a stop-loss below $89 for disciplined risk management.

Statistical probability, momentum analysis, and microstructural cues all support a bounce from here.

Summary: The evidence supports a tactical buy at current levels, anticipating a relief rally and possible trend continuation over the next 24 hours.

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