MPLX: Short the 10¢ Bounce — Oversold Doesn’t Mean Bottom

Executive summary

• Bias: Bearish over the next 24 hours, with a high-probability “sell the rip” setup into 0.100–0.103 followed by continuation toward 0.095–0.093.
• Rationale: Dominant downtrend (lower lows/lower highs), bearish MA stack, negative MACD, OBV/volume distribution on selloffs, price living below Bollinger lower band and beneath the Ichimoku cloud/Kijun. Short-term oversold conditions likely produce a relief pop into nearby resistance (psychological $0.10 and R1/R2 pivots), which offers optimal risk-adjusted entries for shorts.

Data context and recent structure

• Current price: $0.09839174 (near psychological $0.10). Last printed OHLC: 2025-11-17 close $0.095839 after a day low $0.094202 and high $0.100007; 2025-11-16 close $0.096008; 2025-11-15 close $0.098888; 2025-11-14 close $0.101024; 2025-11-13 close $0.109995.
• Mid-term context: Peak acceleration in Sep (spike to ~0.369 on 09-14 and 0.281 on 09-04), then progressive distribution and markdown from the 0.22–0.23 band (late Oct/early Nov) to the 0.09–0.10 band now.
• Market structure: Series of lower highs/lows since early Nov: 0.2229 (11-01) → 0.1978 (11-03) → 0.1718 (11-07) → 0.1677 (11-09) → 0.1635 (11-10) → 0.1287 (11-11) → 0.1100 (11-13) → 0.1010 (11-14) → 0.0989 (11-15) → 0.0960 (11-16) → 0.0958 (11-17). Clean descending channel.

Trend and moving averages

• SMA(5) ≈ 0.10035 (avg of last 5 closes)
• SMA(10) ≈ 0.12531
• SMA(20) ≈ 0.16033
• Qualitative SMA(50): materially higher (mid-0.20s), given prior regime.
• Alignment: Price < SMA5 < SMA10 < SMA20 < SMA50. This is a textbook bearish ribbon, signaling trend persistence. Any bounces into SMA5/10 are likely sold.
• EMAs: Given the slope and sequence of closes, EMA12 likely ~0.11–0.12 and EMA26 ~0.15–0.16; MACD (EMA12-EMA26) negative and below its signal, consistent with momentum to the downside.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): With persistent daily losses since early Nov and a string of lower closes, RSI is likely mid-20s (≈24–28). This is oversold but not a guaranteed bottom; in downtrends, RSI can remain oversold while price continues to grind lower. Expect mean-reversion pops that fail beneath resistance.
• Stochastics (14,3,3): Likely sub-20 and curling; a near-term crossover from deeply oversold often corresponds with minor relief rallies into resistance, which favor short entries.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14): Expanded materially during the markdown from ~0.22 to ~0.10; recent true ranges around 0.004–0.007 with spikes >0.01 on high-volume sell days. A reasonable working ATR(14) band is ~0.008–0.012 now. This suggests a 24h move of ~8–12% of price is plausible, aligning with a 0.091–0.103 envelope.

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Basis ≈ SMA20 ≈ 0.1603.
• Price persistently rides the lower band; recent closes under or hugging the band indicate sustained downside pressure. Given the distance from the basis, a snap-back into the lower band zone (approx 0.101–0.108) is common, but the broader setup remains bearish unless price reclaims and holds above ~0.109–0.110.

Ichimoku Cloud (daily)

• Price is below Tenkan and Kijun; the cloud is far overhead.
• Tenkan (9-period midpoint) likely ~0.101–0.104; Kijun (26-period midpoint) clustered higher (~0.12–0.13). A bounce into Tenkan/Kijun rejection is consistent with trend continuation shorts.

Volume/OBV and distribution

• Volume spikes coincide with down days (e.g., 11-14 ~10.2M; 11-17 ~9.4M), while green days are lower volume. OBV proxy slopes down. This pattern shows supply dominance and rallies on lighter participation—ideal for fading bounces.

Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: 0.0960–0.0958 (recent closes), 0.0942 (11-17 low), then 0.093–0.091 (derived from pivot S1/S2 below).
• Immediate resistances: 0.1000–0.1010 (psychological + prior close), 0.1025 (pivot R2), 0.105–0.110 (lower BB area/round number confluence), 0.109–0.110 (11-13 close and supply shelf), 0.125 (former floor turned ceiling), 0.128–0.13, 0.16 (SMA20), 0.22 (major breakdown area).

Classical pivots (calculated from 2025-11-17 H=0.100007, L=0.094202, C=0.095839)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.096683
• R1 = 2P - L ≈ 0.099164
• S1 = 2P - H ≈ 0.093359
• R2 = P + (H - L) ≈ 0.102488
• S2 = P - (H - L) ≈ 0.090878 Interpretation: Price near $0.10 will encounter R1/R2 headwinds; failure there likely rotates back toward S1/S2.

Fibonacci mapping of the most recent impulsive leg

• Swing high (11-01) ≈ 0.22295 → swing low (11-17) ≈ 0.09420.
• 23.6% ≈ 0.123; 38.2% ≈ 0.141; 50% ≈ 0.159; 61.8% ≈ 0.177.
• Current levels under the 23.6% retracement imply no structural reclaim; every bounce is so far a countertrend rally.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag breakdowns: After the 10/31–11/03 slide, each attempt to range led to another leg down (11/11 washout, 11/13 acceleration, 11/14–11/17 drift lower). The present micro-structure resembles a weak basing attempt within a descending channel. Without a strong reversal candle or volume divergence, continuation risk dominates.
• Candlestick cues: 11/17 closed near the low—no reversal wick. 11/15–11/17 three-day sequence shows small bodies pressing support rather than rejecting it. That argues any bounce is tactical, not trend-changing.

Divergences

• RSI vs price: Minor possibility of a shallow bullish divergence forming if a bounce occurs without making a fresh momentum low; however, the last closes made both price and momentum lows together. No confirmed bullish divergence yet.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early relief pop tests 0.100–0.1025 (R1/R2 and psychological $0.10). Sellers reassert; price rotates down toward 0.094–0.095. Close near lows of the day.
• Upside tail (20%): Stronger mean reversion extends to 0.104–0.108 (BB lower band/ Tenkan zone) before fading. Still below key 0.109–0.110. Trend remains down.
• Downside tail (25%): Support fails immediately; straight slide to S1/S2 0.093–0.091 with shallow intraday bounces.

Strategy synthesis

• Edge: Trend-following short into resistance aligns with MA stack, MACD, OBV, and pivot structure. Oversold state improves entry efficiency by letting price bounce into a better short.
• Entry zone: 0.101–0.103 (under R2 0.1025 and near Tenkan). This is a high-probability supply pocket.
• Target zone: 0.094–0.095 (above S1 0.09336 to respect liquidity and avoid chasing S2).
• Invalidation/stop (for risk planning): 0.106–0.107 (above Tenkan and above any squeeze over R2), where the short thesis for the 24h window weakens. This yields a balanced R:R when entering near 0.102.

Risk management cues

• If price fails to reach 0.101–0.103 and instead loses 0.096 cleanly, momentum shorts can chase weakness with tighter stops above 0.099, targeting 0.091–0.093; however, the optimal play is to sell the bounce.
• If an unusually strong squeeze reclaims and holds >0.110 on volume, step aside; that would be the first constructive sign in weeks and would void the immediate short bias.

What would change my mind

• A daily close back above 0.110 with expanding volume, RSI reclaiming 30–35, and MACD histogram inflecting higher would shift the next-24h bias to neutral-to-bullish. None of these are present yet.

Bottom line

• Dominant downtrend with short-term oversold mean-reversion probability. Favor shorting a pop to 0.101–0.103, aiming for 0.094–0.095 within 24 hours, as the path of least resistance remains down.