OP poised for squeeze: Ascending triangle under 0.328 sets up a 24h breakout toward 0.339

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (range expansion likely after a tight hourly squeeze). Baseline expectation is a break/close back above 0.324–0.328 resistance with a push toward 0.333–0.339 if volume confirms.
• Structure: After a capitulation low (0.287 on 12/01), OP printed a two-day rebound into 0.328 (12/03) and entered a narrow consolidation. Hourly shows rising lows under a flat ceiling at ~0.328 — an ascending triangle setup amid a Bollinger squeeze.
• Trade idea (24h horizon): Buy the pullback into support (0.318–0.320) for a breakout attempt. Optimal open ~0.3196; take profit near 0.3389. A prudent protective stop (not part of requested fields) would sit near 0.3149 to preserve a favorable R:R.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and market structure Daily (swing context)

• Trend: The dominant daily trend has been down since early October’s breakdown (10/10 shock move). Subsequent lower highs/lows into late November culminated in a washout to 0.287 (12/01), then a reflex bounce to 0.328 (12/03). The last three daily sessions show: hammer-like reversal on 12/01, follow-through on 12/02–12/03, then 12/04–12/05 intraday consolidation — classic base-building after capitulation.
• Levels from recent history: • Major overhead supply: 0.352–0.372; 0.398–0.406; 0.421–0.444; larger-timeframe resistance begins much higher (0.50+), but irrelevant for 24h. • Near-term resistance cluster: 0.324–0.328 (recent range highs), then 0.333–0.339 (late-Nov minor distribution band), then 0.342–0.346. • Supports: 0.320–0.318 (intraday shelf), 0.316–0.313 (hourly pivot lows), 0.311–0.307 (50% retrace of 12/01→12/03 upswing), 0.302–0.301 (61.8% retrace), then 0.287 (cycle low).
• Pattern: Potential daily “morning star”-like three-candle reversal (12/01–12/03), followed by an inside-like pause day. That pattern typically resolves with another push higher if the pullback holds above the 38.2–50% retrace of the upswing; so far, price is holding above the 23.6–38.2% retrace zone.

Hourly (tactical execution)

• Since 12/03 high (0.3281), hourly chart shows compressing volatility and higher lows: 0.3169 (12/04 19:00) → ~0.3205–0.321 (12/05 pre-dawn) under a steady resistance cap ~0.3285. That is an ascending triangle: demand stepping up, supply static.
• The session POC (by time and recent volume) appears around 0.324 (repeated touches), acting as a magnet; a decisive reclaim of 0.324–0.325 often precedes a test of 0.328.

2. Trend and moving averages

• Daily MAs: Price remains below the higher-timeframe 50D/100D trend metrics (bearish regime), but the short MAs (e.g., 10D EMA/20D SMA proxies) have flattened and are curling up after 12/01. In short: primary trend down, short-term trend neutral-to-improving.
• Hourly MAs (20/50/100): Price oscillates around the 20–50H MAs, which have converged near 0.322–0.325 — a sign of equilibrium. The 100H sits slightly above, near the resistance band. A move that lifts price and 20/50H above the 100H with expansion would mark a momentum regime change for the next session.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily): Rebounded from oversold after 12/01; slope positive. Not yet overbought — room for a continuation pop.
• RSI (hourly): Range-bound in mid-zone; slight positive divergence versus 12/04’s local low supports the ascending triangle narrative.
• MACD (daily): Histogram less negative, likely forming a trough; signal-line convergence suggests a pending bullish cross if price holds above ~0.318–0.320 and pushes through 0.328.
• MACD (hourly): Near the zero line; small upticks on higher lows. A clean push above 0.324–0.325 typically flips the hourly MACD firmly positive.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR (qualitative): Contracted compared to the October/November shock ranges, but still sufficient to support a 5–7% day move (~0.016–0.022 at current price) on expansion.
• Hourly Bollinger Bands: Tight squeeze from 0.319–0.328; price hugging mid-band with higher lows. Squeezes resolve with impulse — the triangle bias and momentum hints favor an upside break if volume participates.

5. Volume/flow

• Post-washout (12/01) demand absorption: Declining sell volume into 12/02–12/03 up-move indicates sellers are tiring in this zone.
• 12/04 19:00 spike lower to 0.3169 was bought back above 0.320 quickly (absorption). That’s constructive for bulls: supply was met with immediate demand.
• For breakout validation, look for volume expansion on a 0.328–0.329 breach. Without that, risk of another oscillation back to 0.318–0.320 remains.

6. Fibonacci mapping (precision for the active swing)

• Swing low 12/01: 0.28730; swing high 12/03: 0.32809; range: 0.04079. • 23.6%: 0.31846 • 38.2%: 0.31252 • 50.0%: 0.30769 • 61.8%: 0.30290 Current price (0.3201) sits just above the 23.6% retrace — an optimal location for continuation if the rising-lows pattern holds.
• Larger swing: 09/19 high 0.85374 to 12/01 low 0.28730 places current price far below major retracements (23.6% ≈0.421), reinforcing that the larger trend is still down and rallies are countertrend — use tight risk.

7. Ichimoku snapshot (qualitative)

• Daily: Price is below the cloud with Tenkan/Kijun overhead — bigger picture bearish regime, but Tenkan flattening hints at stabilization.
• Hourly: Price toggles around/just below a thin cloud base (~0.324–0.326). A clean cloud break and hold above 0.326 would align price > Tenkan > Kijun for a short-term bullish impulse toward 0.333–0.339.

8. Market profile / microstructure cues

• Value developed around 0.323–0.325 on 12/04; current trades slightly below value ( ~0.320). Reversion to value is likely; above 0.325, the path to 0.328 is open. Acceptance above 0.328 triggers stops/late longs’ momentum entries.

9. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• 12/01 “hammer”-like reversal, 12/02–12/03 follow-through, then pause: constructive sequencing.
• Hourly ascending triangle: higher lows at ~0.3169 → 0.3205 under a flat top ~0.3285. Probabilistic tilt is for an upside resolution if sellers cannot drive it below 0.318 quickly.

10. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Upside break of 0.328 → run to 0.333–0.339; day closes above ~0.331.
• Range case (30%): Choppy 0.318–0.328 rotation; failed breakout attempts, net close ~0.324–0.327.
• Bear case (15%): Loss of 0.318 → 0.316/0.313 test; if 0.313 fails, then 0.307–0.311. Would negate the ascending triangle and delay any upside for several sessions.

11. Risk management and execution

• Entry method A (preferred): Buy-the-dip at 0.3188–0.3200 with confirmation (higher low on 5–15m). Optimal tagged at 0.3196 for planning.
• Entry method B (confirmation): Buy-stop on breakout 0.3290–0.3295 to catch momentum — lower false-break risk but reduced R:R.
• Exit/target: 0.338–0.339 aligns with prior minor resistance and the expected ATR reach on expansion. Secondary extension 0.342–0.346 exists but is ambitious in 24h without strong volume.
• Suggested protective stop (discretionary, not requested): ~0.3149 (below 12/04 low and below 38.2% retrace buffer). That yields about 1:3 R:R for 0.3196→0.3389 target.

12. Synthesis and verdict

• Despite the higher-timeframe downtrend, near-term signals (ascending triangle, improving momentum, absorption at 0.316–0.320, hourly squeeze) support a tactical long for a 24h breakout attempt. The plan favors buying near support to capture the asymmetric move toward 0.333–0.339, with tight risk if 0.318 fails.

24-hour price path projection

• Probable range: 0.316–0.339
• Expected directional move: Up, provided 0.318–0.320 holds early in the session.
• Anticipated catalyst: Break and hold above 0.324–0.325 value, then breach 0.328 on rising volume.