OP at the Edge: Post‑Crash Base Poised for a 24‑Hour Relief Rally

Summary view

• Regime shift: OP suffered a severe breakdown on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ≈0.254, close ≈0.499) from a multi-month 0.65–0.85 value area. Since then, price has trended down to 0.42–0.43, compressing volatility and forming a post-capitulation base. Current price ≈0.4273.
• 24h bias: Mildly bullish for a relief move into overhead liquidity, with a primary target cluster around 0.47–0.48 (38.2% Fib of the crash swing and prior daily closing supply). Key invalidation is a decisive loss of 0.418–0.420.

Price action and structure

• Pre-crash context (Jul–Sep): Sideways-to-up within 0.65–0.85. Multiple failed breakouts near 0.83–0.85 and a progressive series of lower highs into early Oct hinted at distribution.
• Breakdown (Oct 10): Wide-range bearish day (high ≈0.733, low ≈0.254) with extreme volume, creating a capitulation wick and a large volume/price gap below prior value. Close ≈0.499 left a fresh overhead supply block 0.49–0.51.
• Post-breakdown drift (Oct 11–17): Lower closes to ≈0.419, shallow bounces sold. However, daily ranges have contracted, indicating selling pressure exhaustion and volatility normalization.
• Current micro-structure (Oct 18 intraday): Tight 1H range 0.419–0.429 with subtle higher lows around 0.420–0.421 and marginally higher highs 0.427–0.429. This looks like a nascent base/squeeze rather than an active downleg. Multiple tests of 0.420 without follow-through suggest demand absorption there.

Support and resistance map (nearest, based on the series)

• Supports: 0.418–0.420 (intraday floor), 0.396–0.400 (Oct 17 day low area), 0.254 (capitulation spike – far tail risk).
• Resistances: 0.434–0.440 (local sellers), 0.456 (Oct 11 close pivot), 0.485–0.505 (dense daily supply: Oct 12–14 closes and Oct 10 close), 0.545 (50% retrace), 0.61–0.62 (61.8% retrace / former value edge).

Trend and moving averages (approximations from the series)

• Daily: Price is well below any reasonable 20D/50D/200D MAs after the crash. Slopes are down, confirming a bearish higher-timeframe regime.
• 4H/1H: Short-term MAs have begun to flatten as price compresses around 0.42–0.43. This is consistent with a pause/base rather than immediate continuation.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely sub-30 at/after the crash, now recovering toward low-to-mid 30s; conditions remain oversold on HTF but improving – favorable for a relief bounce.
• 4H/1H RSI: Multiple tests of 0.420 with progressively higher RSI troughs imply bullish divergence on the intraday timeframe. This supports a push toward first resistance bands (0.44, then 0.456, then 0.47–0.48).
• MACD (daily): Deeply negative, histogram contraction probable; on 1H, a shallow bullish cross/flattening is consistent with basing.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR: Post-crash daily ATR has been contracting (from ~0.48 on the event day to roughly ~0.04–0.06 recently). A 24h swing of 0.045–0.06 from 0.427 implies reach to ≈0.472–0.487 on the upside or ≈0.367–0.382 on the downside under typical volatility. Given the base and nearby support, upside test into 0.47–0.48 is the more probable leg.
• Bollinger Bands: Daily bands greatly expanded on the crash; price has been hugging the lower band and now curling inward. On 1H, a mini-squeeze is forming. Squeezes after capitulation often release upward first if supports hold.

Volume, OBV-like read, and profile

• Volume: Extreme on Oct 10 (capitulation), robust but declining thereafter. This pattern suggests supply exhaustion.
• Volume profile (qualitative): A prominent high-volume node existed 0.70–0.75 (pre-crash value). Below 0.50 there is a volume gap/low-volume area created by the fast move – price can traverse 0.42→0.49 relatively quickly once a trigger appears. Expect friction around 0.49–0.51 where the Oct 10 close and subsequent daily activity formed supply.

Fibonacci mapping (swing high 0.835 on Sep 13 to crash low 0.254 on Oct 10)

• 23.6%: ~0.391 (already reclaimed).
• 38.2%: ~0.476 (first major retracement/resistance and a realistic 24h target).
• 50%: ~0.545 (stretch target beyond 24h).
• 61.8%: ~0.613 (unlikely in current session).

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price well below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; bearish regime. However, post-crash distances are stretched; mean-reversion risk is up.
• 1H: Price oscillating around/just under the cloud base; a small bullish cross/edge-to-edge attempt to 0.44–0.45 is plausible; clearing the intraday cloud opens room to 0.47.

Wyckoff lens

• Oct 10 looks like a Selling Climax (SC) with an Automatic Reaction (AR) near ~0.50, followed by Secondary Tests (ST) that explored 0.42–0.43 and even ~0.40 on Oct 17. The current action resembles Phase B basing with a potential LPS (Last Point of Support) forming at 0.420–0.421. If this holds, a sign-of-strength rally into the AR zone (~0.49–0.50) is the next textbook step.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Violent markdown likely completed a 5-wave capitulative impulse. Current chop fits a corrective A–B–C or W–X–Y upward against the trend. A measured A=C to the 0.47–0.48 zone is consistent with other tools.

Candlestick reads

• Oct 10: Long lower shadow (capitulation) with a weak close – often followed by stabilization and eventual mean-reversion.
• Subsequent days: Small real bodies and tighter ranges (indecision/compression), not fresh momentum breakdowns – a prerequisite for a relief rally.

Confluence to the upside in the next 24h

• Intraday bullish divergence (RSI 1H), repeated defenses at 0.420.
• 1H squeeze + basing structure with micro higher lows.
• Volume gap between 0.43 and 0.49 allows fast travel once 0.44–0.45 clears.
• 38.2% retrace at ~0.476 aligns with overhead supply cluster 0.47–0.49 – a natural magnet/target.

Bear risks and invalidation

• Loss of 0.418–0.420 on a closing basis (1H/4H) likely reopens 0.396–0.400 and risks a deeper probe toward 0.37–0.38 (daily ATR-based downside). Momentum is still bearish on the daily trend; this is a countertrend trade.

Scenario probabilities (subjective, from the given data)

• Relief rally to 0.46–0.48 in 24h: ~55%.
• Range-bound 0.42–0.44: ~30%.
• Breakdown through 0.418 toward 0.40: ~15%.

Trade plan (short-term, 24h)

• Bias: Long (countertrend relief rally).
• Entry: Staggered within 0.424–0.428 (preferably near 0.424–0.425 pullbacks; current ≈0.4273 is acceptable with partial size).
• Target (take profit within 24h): 0.476 (38.2% Fib and first substantial supply zone). If momentum surges, partials could extend to 0.485–0.495, but 0.476 is the base case.
• Invalidation (stop, not required but prudent): Below 0.409–0.412 to avoid noise around 0.418; that keeps R multiple attractive versus the 0.476 target.

24h price path expectation

• Preferred path: Early dip to 0.424–0.425, then push through 0.434–0.440, acceleration above 0.445–0.450 into 0.46–0.48, with supply capping near 0.476–0.485.
• Alternate: Immediate grind higher from current levels to 0.445–0.455 before a pullback; this still favors taking profits closer to 0.476.

Bottom line

• While the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish, multiple short-term signals (RSI divergence, squeeze, basing, volume gap) favor a 24h relief rally into 0.47–0.48. The optimal plan is a tactical long with tight invalidation below 0.418–0.412 and a take-profit near 0.476.