ORDI’s Breakout Play: Buying the LPS Pullback for a 5.00 Magnet Test in 24 Hours

Executive overview

• Context: ORDI has spent two months unwinding from the September double‑digit prints to a November capitulation/cascade into the mid‑3s, then carved a multi‑week base (≈3.84–4.20) and broke out today with a strong expansion candle to 4.82 before settling at 4.62. This is the first decisive higher‑high over the December 13 pivot (4.458), shifting near‑term structure to bullish while longer‑term remains corrective.
• My 24h bias: Bullish continuation after a shallow pullback, targeting a retest of 4.90–5.00. Optimal plan: buy a dip into 4.56–4.58 (near 23.6% retrace and intraday VWAP band) with a 4.98 profit target.

Multi‑timeframe price structure and trend

• Daily trend: Higher lows since Dec 1 low (3.568) with successive closes mostly stair‑stepping up; today’s breakout makes a new swing high (4.816), confirming a short‑term uptrend within a larger downtrend that started in September.
• Hourly trend (Dec 16): Strong impulse leg 10:00–12:00 (4.35 → 4.84) on volume expansion, followed by bull‑flag consolidation 4.59–4.66. Micro higher lows are intact; late session held above 4.60 multiple times.
• Market structure: Clean break above resistance cluster 4.41–4.46 (daily closes on Dec 9 and Dec 13). That band now acts as support; the first higher‑low above that band likely prints in the 4.52–4.58 area.

Support/resistance map (confluence)

• Supports: 4.58–4.56 (23.6% fib of 3.568→4.816 ≈ 4.522; plus intraday balance ledge), 4.52 (exact 23.6%), 4.41–4.46 (former breakout pivot), 4.34–4.35 (38.2% fib ≈ 4.34).
• Resistances: 4.80–4.84 (today’s supply tail), psychological 5.00, 5.10–5.30 (November consolidation shelf), then 5.55–5.65 (late‑Oct supply band). First target for a 24h swing is the 4.95–5.05 pocket.

Momentum study

• RSI(14) daily: Rising out of mid‑40s to ≈60; not overbought, supportive of continuation. The pattern is a bull RSI range shift (40–80 from prior 20–60).
• RSI(14) hourly: Spiked overbought during the impulse, mean‑reverted to mid‑50s during the flag; momentum reset without price damage—bullish.
• MACD daily: Fast above slow with increasing histogram; crossover likely occurred last few sessions; still below long‑term zero line but advancing—typical early‑trend behavior.
• MACD hourly: Positive, flattening during consolidation; poised to curl up on a fresh push above 4.66–4.70.
• Stochastic daily: High but not pegged; a shallow pullback can reset it quickly; no sell signal.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily estimate ≈ 0.45–0.50. Today’s range (≈0.73) exceeded ATR—classic breakout day. Expect next 24h to be an expansion‑then‑compress pattern: early pullback 0.1–0.2, then a directional 0.3–0.4 leg.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid ≈ SMA20 ≈ 4.15. Upper band ≈ 4.64–4.67. Price wicked above and closed just inside/near upper band—bullish “band walk” attempt with a healthy re‑entry; suggests a follow‑through try if pullbacks hold above 4.52–4.58.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR): Price near/above upper channel—consistent with sustained trend days; expect buy‑the‑dip behavior until mid‑channel (~4.40s) breaks.

Moving averages

• SMA20 daily ≈ 4.15 (rising). Price at 4.62 is ~+11% above: bullish short‑term.
• SMA50 daily (approx): Still above price (mid‑5s) given September/October prints; longer‑term downtrend intact, but early bullish reversal underway.
• 20>10>5 EMA cluster on intraday charts is stacking up; dips into the 10/20 EMA (hourly ≈ 4.58–4.62) have been bought today.

Ichimoku insights (daily)

• Price above Tenkan and Kijun after breakout; cloud likely thin and below price (~4.1–4.2). Tenkan > Kijun cross and price > cloud = bullish short‑term signal. Chikou span coming through price—confirmation building.

Volume analytics

• Breakout accompanied by large 11:00 hour volume spike (≈10.6M), confirming participation. Subsequent hours showed diminishing volume while price held >4.60—constructive.
• OBV (qualitative): Higher since Dec 8; positive slope accelerated today.
• Accumulation/Distribution: Today’s close in the upper half with strong volume implies net accumulation despite an upper wick.
• VWAP: Intraday anchored to session open (~4.155) lifts to the mid‑4.6s given heavy trading near highs; last trade ≈4.616 is near/slightly below session VWAP—reclaim and hold above VWAP favors an afternoon/evening push.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing 3.568 → 4.816:
  • 23.6%: 4.522 (first shallow pullback threshold).
  • 38.2%: 4.340 (deeper but healthy).
  • 50%: 4.192 (would dull momentum; less likely in next 24h unless risk‑off).
• Extensions from the Dec 10 pullback (4.106) to Dec 13 (4.458): 1.618 projects ≈ 4.98—aligns with the 5.00 psychological target.
• Measured move from base (4.45 breakout + ~0.35 height) = 4.80; already achieved—next leg commonly seeks the round number magnet (5.00) or 1.272–1.618 extensions (≈4.90–5.10).

Pattern recognition

• Rounding base/ascending triangle breakout above 4.45. Today’s action looks like a breakout + initial throwback forming a bull flag on the hourly.
• Candlesticks: Wide‑range breakout candle with a rejection tail near 4.82–4.84 (supply), but higher close vs. prior days and no loss of structure—typical of day 1 breakouts.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Wave 1: 3.57 → 4.24 (Dec 1–8).
• Wave 2: 4.24 → 4.10 (Dec 9–10).
• Wave 3: 4.10 → 4.82 (today’s spike).
• Currently in Wave 4 minor: expecting a shallow retrace to 4.56–4.58 (sideways/down), followed by Wave 5 push into 4.95–5.05.

Wyckoff read

• Accumulation range (≈3.84–4.20) produced a Sign of Strength to 4.82. A Last Point of Support (LPS) often appears shortly after breakout: 4.56–4.58 zone fits. A successful LPS typically precedes a markup to the next resistance pocket (≈5.00).

Risk management, invalidation, and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 4.56–4.58, hold above 4.52, then trend up toward 4.90–5.00. Catalysts: VWAP reclaim, MACD hourly curl, flag break >4.70.
• Range case (30%): Chop 4.52–4.70 as market digests breakout; resolution within 36h.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 4.52 quickly → test 4.41–4.46. A daily close <4.41 would negate the breakout and push for 4.34.
• Practical invalidation for the long idea: sustained trade below 4.52 (shallow fib) or a decisive break/close below 4.41 (pivot).

Why Buy the dip here

• Confluence of supports (fib 23.6%, intraday EMA/VWAP band, newly flipped 4.45–4.60 structure) with rising momentum (RSI≈60, MACD↑), plus a textbook breakout‑flag sequence. Risk is well‑defined; reward to 4.98–5.05 offers strong R:R even with a conservative stop below 4.41.

Execution plan

• Entry: Limit buy 4.58 (tactical LPS zone). If price does not dip, a momentum add‑on trigger is a buy stop through 4.70–4.72, but the optimal price for R:R is the 4.58 limit.
• Target (24h): 4.98 (near fib 1.618/psych 5.00). This aligns with today’s extension math and obvious liquidity magnet.
• Suggested (not required) protective stop for risk control: 4.36 (below 38.2% and below recent structure), yielding ≈0.22–0.24 risk vs. ≈0.40 profit to target (≈1.7–1.9 R:R). Tighter tactical stop 4.48 if actively managed.

Bottom line

• Short‑term trend flipped up; volume confirmed; momentum constructive; shallow retrace likely before continuation. The highest‑odds, highest‑R:R placement is to buy a controlled dip around 4.58 and ride the follow‑through into the 4.95–5.05 resistance pocket within the next 24 hours.