PEPE Rejects the 0.000005 Breakout: Bearish Retest Setup Toward 0.000004

Market Structure & Context (Daily)

Current price: 0.000004354

1) Regime / Trend (multi-month)

• Nov–Dec: mostly range-bound between ~0.000004 and 0.000005 with long stretches of flat closes → classic low-trend, mean-reversion regime.
• Early Jan impulse: breakout/markup from ~0.000004–0.000005 up to ~0.000007 (Jan 4–7 area) on very high volume (notably Jan 2–4). This looks like a distribution-to-markup event.
• Mid/Late Jan: breakdown back to 0.000005, then to 0.000004 by end of Jan.
• Feb 5 flush: one-day leg to 0.000003 then quick reclaim to 0.000004 → capitulation + bounce signature.
• Feb 14 bounce: daily close back at 0.000005 with very high volume.
• Feb 15 (latest daily): large intraday selloff closing near 0.000004354 after opening ~0.000004847 and printing high ~0.00000501 → rejection of the 0.000005 handle.

Conclusion (daily): The larger structure since early Jan is downtrend / lower highs, with 0.000005 acting as a recurring supply zone and 0.000004 as the key demand shelf. Price is currently below the 0.000005 pivot again.

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Intraday (Hourly) Price Action – Last ~24h

From Feb 14 22:00 to Feb 15 21:57:

• Early hours: push up to ~0.000005043 (local peak) then persistent sequence of lower highs.
• Midday: drift lower from ~0.00000480–0.00000490 into 0.00000459.
• Late day: acceleration down to ~0.00000443–0.00000435.

2) Support/Resistance Mapping (price action)

Immediate supports:

• 0.00000435 (current area, micro-support)
• 0.00000430–0.00000425 (likely next liquidity pocket if 0.00000435 gives)
• 0.00000400 (major HTF shelf; repeatedly defended historically)

Immediate resistances:

• 0.00000452–0.00000461 (late-day breakdown region; first meaningful overhead supply)
• 0.00000470–0.00000480 (intraday distribution zone)
• 0.00000495–0.00000505 (major rejection area; prior spike high and psychological 0.000005)

Key observation: The market rejected the 0.000005 region twice in the last two days (Feb 14 daily close at 0.000005, then Feb 15 failed continuation). That typically increases probability of a mean-reverting pullback toward the next strong daily support (~0.000004).

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Indicator-Based Read (derived from the provided OHLC behavior)

Note: Exact numeric RSI/MACD requires full computation; below is a professional inference from the price sequence and ranges.

3) Momentum (RSI-style inference)

• The last ~12–18 hourly candles show persistent red / weak bounces → momentum is bearish.
• Price fell from ~0.00000504 to 0.00000435 (-13.7%) within the session → typical of RSI sliding below midline and possibly nearing short-term oversold, but oversold can persist in meme-coin moves.

Impact: Momentum favors down continuation / weak bounce rather than immediate trend reversal.

4) MACD-style inference (trend + momentum)

• After a peak and prolonged lower-high sequence, MACD would typically be below signal and widening.

Impact: Reinforces bearish bias for the next session unless price reclaims 0.00000461 quickly.

5) Volatility (ATR/Bollinger-style inference)

• The daily candle (Feb 15) has a relatively wide high-to-low range (~0.00000501 to 0.00000435) → volatility expansion.
• Expansion after a failed breakout (above/around 0.000005) often precedes trend continuation down until volatility is “accepted” at a lower range.

Impact: Elevated volatility increases probability of a wick down toward 0.00000410–0.00000400 before any stable bounce.

6) Volume / Effort vs Result

• Feb 14 showed high volume with close at 0.000005 (effort).
• Feb 15 shows high volume on the day with price closing much lower (result negative): failed continuation.

Impact: This is a classic distribution/absorption tell: buyers expended effort near 0.000005, sellers absorbed and pushed price down → bearish near-term.

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Pattern & Scenario Analysis

7) Failed breakout / bull trap at 0.000005

• Repeated inability to hold above 0.000005 after a high-volume bounce suggests a bull trap.

Implication (24h): Higher probability of testing lower supports (0.00000410–0.00000400) than immediately reclaiming 0.000005.

8) Mean reversion to the pivot

• The most traded/visited node historically is around 0.000004–0.000005.
• Price is now mid-way but moving with bearish momentum; mean reversion target becomes the lower node (~0.000004).

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24-Hour Forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): bearish drift / retest of 0.000004

• Expect attempts to bounce into 0.00000452–0.00000461 to get sold.
• Then a retest of 0.00000410–0.00000400.

Alternate case: short-covering bounce

• If price reclaims and holds above 0.00000461, next magnet becomes 0.00000480.
• Only above ~0.00000495 does the structure shift back toward 0.00000505+.

Given the rejection at 0.000005, the lack of strong reclaim on the late-session breakdown zones, and the dominant lower-high sequence, I weight the bearish scenario higher.

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Trade Plan (1-day tactical)

9) Decision Framework

• Trend (daily): down since Jan peak.
• Key level: 0.000005 supply remains intact.
• Intraday structure: lower highs + breakdown.
• Volume logic: effort up, result down.

Net bias: Sell (Short).

10) Optimal Entry (open price)

Rather than shorting at the lows (0.00000435), the higher-quality short typically comes from a pullback into resistance (better R:R, less whipsaw risk).

• Best sell zone: 0.00000460 (near the breakdown/retest band 0.00000452–0.00000461).

11) Take-Profit (close price)

• First strong daily demand: 0.00000400.
• That level is repeatedly defended in the dataset and is a natural 24h magnet if weakness persists.

TP / close price: 0.00000400.

(If you need a single TP, 0.00000400 is the cleanest. More aggressive would be 0.00000410, more ambitious would be 0.00000390, but 0.00000400 aligns with major structure.)