PNUT poised for a pivot-to-R2 rotation: Buy the $0.1368 dip, target $0.1425 within 24h

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical assessment for PNUT (Peanut the Squirrel) as of 2025-10-25 21:00 UTC. Current price: $0.13922164

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (daily): Since late July, PNUT has been in a pronounced downtrend from ~0.26 to ~0.20, culminating in a capitulation day on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ~$0.0686, close ~$0.1340). Post-crash, price established a broad range between ~0.126 and ~0.161 with diminishing volatility. The macro trend remains down; however, since mid-October, price is basing and compressing.
• Intermediate structure (post-crash range): Key range boundaries: support cluster 0.126–0.130; mid-pivot zone 0.136–0.139; resistance zone 0.152–0.161. The current price ($0.1392) sits slightly above the 50% retracement and within the mid-pivot band—an area often used for mean-reversion entries.
• Short-term (hourly): The last 24 hours display a clean sequence of higher lows and higher highs: 0.13556 → 0.13607 → 0.13640 → 0.13720 → 0.13807 → 0.13888 → 0.13922. This forms a gentle ascending channel with rising intrahour closes and mild momentum buildup. Into the top of this micro-channel, minor pullbacks are likely before continuation attempts.

2. Fibonacci mapping (crash-retrace framework)

• Swing considered: 2025-10-09 close ~$0.20388 to 2025-10-10 low ~$0.06856.
• Range = 0.13531.
• Key retracements from the low: • 38.2% ≈ 0.12025 (already reclaimed and held post-crash) • 50% ≈ 0.13622 (functional pivot; repeatedly tested/defended) • 61.8% ≈ 0.15319 (upper-range resistance; aligns with prior reaction highs 0.152–0.161) Interpretation: Price hovering slightly above the 50% fib suggests supportive dip-buying near 0.136 and heavy resistance near 0.153–0.161.

3. Pivot Points (Classic; derived from 2025-10-24 H/L/C ≈ 0.139195/0.133276/0.137889)

• Pivot (P) ≈ 0.136787
• R1 ≈ 0.140298; S1 ≈ 0.134379
• R2 ≈ 0.142706; S2 ≈ 0.130868 Interpretation: Current price ($0.1392) sits between P and R1, approaching R1 resistance. The highest-probability path within 24h is a fade from near R1 back toward P (~0.1368), then a rotation up toward R2 (~0.1427) if P holds. This supports a buy-on-dip approach at/near P with a target just below R2.

4. Moving averages (estimate-based, given data series)

• Daily: Price remains below the 20/50-day SMAs due to the earlier regime shift; the 20-day average is still depressed by pre-crash prints, likely above spot. That keeps the macro lens bearish-to-neutral.
• Hourly: Price is above the 20/50 EMA stack, with a recent bullish 20>50 EMA cross. Pullbacks to the hourly 20EMA (roughly 0.1367–0.1373 by slope/proximity) are often bought in nascent upswings. Interpretation: Mixed timeframe bias—macro MA downtrend but micro MA uptrend. For a 24h horizon, the hourly structure dominates, favoring tactical longs on dips.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily 14): Approximate computation shows gains slightly outpacing losses post-crash, placing RSI in the low-to-mid 50s (neutral-bullish). This suggests no overbought pressure on the daily and room to oscillate within the range.
• RSI (hourly): Rising into the 60–65 zone; likely to unwind modestly on a near-term dip before another attempt higher.
• Stochastic (intraday): Likely near overbought on 15–60m from the steady grind; conducive to a modest pullback into support rather than immediate breakout continuation.
• MACD (daily): Near the zero line with a flat histogram—range conditions. MACD (hourly): Slightly positive; momentum supportive after dips. Interpretation: Momentum supports buying weakness rather than chasing strength at current levels.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily 14): Elevated versus pre-crash but contracting, indicating a compression phase after the shock event.
• Bollinger Bands (daily 20,2): Bands have narrowed versus the crash day; spot is likely below the 20SMA but within the band center—no extreme signal.
• Bollinger Bands (hourly): Price is gravitating toward the upper band. Expect mean reversion toward the mid-band/20EMA (~0.1369–0.1373) before any renewed push.
• Keltner Channels (hourly): Price hugging upper KC boundary supports the same dip-buying plan near the middle line. Interpretation: Volatility compression with a short-term overextension on the hourly argues for a small reset, then possibly a continuation toward R2 if volume accompanies.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price remains below the cloud (bearish macro). Tenkan is rising and near Kijun due to consolidation; cloud overhead roughly aligns with 0.15–0.16 zone.
• Hourly: Price above Tenkan/Kijun, with Kijun near ~0.137; Senkou A rising modestly. Kijun often acts as a magnet for pullbacks before trend continuation. Interpretation: Hourly Ichimoku structure favors dip buys near Kijun (~0.137) with cloud support below; daily cloud still overhead resistance into the mid-0.15s.

8. Volume, OBV, and market profile

• Volume: Post-crash, daily volumes trended lower into 10/24–10/25, typical of consolidation. Intrahour pops occurred near 20:00 UTC on 10/25 as price advanced toward the session highs.
• OBV: Likely in a gentle up-trend since 10/17–10/23 as closes on up days incrementally outnumber down days—quiet accumulation.
• Volume Profile (recent days): Value congests around 0.136–0.138, indicating a fair-value area. Expect rotational behavior around this zone unless a catalyst expands volume. Interpretation: Volume dynamics favor range rotation; fair value sits below spot, which increases odds of a short-term dip to rebalance before any further rise.

9. DMI/ADX and regime filter

• ADX (daily) is likely sub-15, consistent with range-bound behavior. Directional lines (DI+/DI−) are near balance. Interpretation: In low-ADX regimes, fading edges and trading pivots outperform breakout chasing. This supports a buy-on-dip toward P with a take-profit near R2.

10. Candles and micro patterns

• Daily bars since 10/17 show small-bodied candles with wicks both sides—equilibrium/indecision.
• Hourly prints on 10/25 show a controlled grind with minor upper wicks into 0.1390–0.1393, suggesting light overhead supply near R1. Interpretation: Expect a brief pause/pullback into 0.1368–0.1373, then a measured attempt higher if buyers defend.

11. VWAP considerations

• Anchored VWAP from the 10/10 capitulation day plausibly resides around the high-0.13s/low-0.14s (approx. 0.139–0.141 by impact weighting). Current price is at/just below this anchored reference, often a battleground. Reclaiming and holding above it typically unlocks a move toward 0.142–0.145; rejection tends to mean revert to 0.136–0.137. Interpretation: The optimal risk entry is slightly below current, allowing a test of anchored VWAP from below and a more favorable R:R.

12. Classical support/resistance map (confluence)

• Supports: 0.1362–0.1370 (50% fib + hourly Kijun + 20EMA + daily pivot P), then 0.1344 (S1), 0.1309 (S2), 0.1260 (range floor).
• Resistances: 0.1403 (R1), 0.1427 (R2), 0.1467, 0.1503, 0.1532–0.161 (61.8% fib and range top cluster). Interpretation: Strong confluence at ~0.1368 favors it as a high-quality pullback entry; 0.1425–0.1430 is the first meaningful upside objective within 24h.

13. Scenario pathing for next 24 hours

• Base case (≈60%): Fade from ~R1 → pullback to P (0.1366–0.1372) → hold → rotate toward R2 (0.1420–0.1430). Close within 0.141–0.143 if buyers sustain.
• Bull case (≈25%): Brief dip shallow (≥0.1378), rapid reclaim above 0.1403 (R1) and expansion to 0.143–0.145 on rising volume. Stretch targets if momentum spikes: 0.146–0.148.
• Bear case (≈15%): Failure to hold P (clean break below 0.1362), accelerating to 0.1344 (S1). If S1 fails, probe 0.1320–0.1309. This path likely coincides with hourly momentum roll-over and OBV deterioration.

14. Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Bias: Buy-on-dip within range regime, lean on confluence at daily Pivot P and 50% fib.
• Entry (limit): $0.1368 (near P, hourly 20EMA/Kijun confluence).
• Take profit (24h realistic): $0.1425 (just under R2 $0.1427 to increase fill probability).
• Suggested protective stop (for risk framing, not part of order fields): $0.1348–0.1350 (below S1 wick traps and below recent intraday swing base), yielding an R:R ≈ (0.1425−0.1368)/(0.1368−0.1349) ≈ 3.3.
• Invalidations: Clean hourly close <0.1350 with rising volume, or persistent rejection below the anchored VWAP band after retest.

15. Synthesis and decision

• Multiple tools (pivots, Fibonacci, hourly EMAs, Ichimoku Kijun, VWAP, RSI/MACD, volatility bands) cluster around a tactical dip-buy near 0.1368 with a path toward 0.1420–0.1430 in the next 24 hours. Macro remains range-bound and broader trend is still down, so this is a tactical long rather than a structural one. Execution should prioritize limit entry at/near P, avoiding chasing near R1.

Expected 24h price path: Initial pullback to 0.1368 ± 0.0005, followed by rotation upward toward 0.1420–0.1430, provided 0.1362–0.1370 support holds.