PNUT: Tactical Mean-Reversion Long Toward 0.223 — Riding the Rebound Within a Bigger Downtrend

Step-by-step technical dissection (using daily and intraday data provided)

1. Market snapshot and context

• Instrument: Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), USD quoted
• Current price (2025-09-03 20:56 UTC): 0.2099711
• Recent path: From a mid-July peak near 0.338, PNUT has been in a sustained downtrend with a late-August/early-September washout to 0.188–0.193, followed by a modest rebound to ~0.21.
• 24h intraday (hourly bars) shows a steady grind up from ~0.204 to ~0.210 with higher lows, indicating improving short-term momentum.

2. Trend and market structure (price action)

• Higher timeframe (daily): A sequence of lower highs and lower lows since late July confirms a primary downtrend. Key swing points: high 0.3378 (07/20), lower high cluster 0.326–0.33 (07/21–07/22), lower highs in late July (0.29), early August mid-0.23s, and late August lows down to 0.188–0.193.
• Short-term (last 3 sessions): 09/01 printed a capitulation-like day (low 0.1883, close 0.1934) with a long lower wick; 09/02 bounced to 0.2067; today’s intraday action made a series of higher lows around 0.2036 → 0.2047 → 0.2068 → 0.2085, climbing back above 0.21 briefly. This suggests a tactical mean-reversion attempt within a broader downtrend.
• Micro pattern: Intraday ascending triangle between ~0.206 base and ~0.210 lid broke marginally higher late session (prints to 0.2102). A hold above ~0.210–0.211 would open the next resistance band.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (approx): Using the last 20 daily closes (Aug 14–Sep 2), SMA20 ≈ 0.2180. Price is ~3.7% below the 20-SMA, consistent with a weak trend but within reach for a mean-reversion tag.
• 7-day SMA (approx): Last 7 daily closes average ≈ 0.2091. Current price is just above this, indicating short-term momentum turning up.
• 50-day SMA (approx): Given July’s higher prices (0.27–0.33) and August’s drift (0.20–0.24), SMA50 likely sits around 0.245–0.255. Price remains well below, reinforcing the prevailing higher-timeframe bearish bias.
• Read-through: Short-term (7-SMA) curling up; medium-term (20-SMA) above price (overhead magnet); longer-term (50-SMA) well above (trend headwind). This mix supports a tactical bounce, not a trend reversal.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) (approximation): After the 09/01 selloff to ~0.193, RSI likely dipped near 30–35 and has since risen to the low 40s. This is a classic early recovery from oversold without yet being overbought; room exists for continuation toward neutral (50) if price presses 0.218–0.223.
• Stochastic RSI / fast oscillators (qualitative): Likely crossed up from oversold in the last 2–3 sessions; intraday higher lows corroborate bullish momentum.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): MACD line remains below signal (negative territory), but histogram has been contracting since 09/01, indicating bearish momentum is waning and a bullish cross could develop with a push to/through the 20-SMA.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.011–0.013 based on recent daily candles. Implies a typical 24h move of ~5–6% from current price. Expect a one-day range roughly 0.198–0.222 from the current 0.210 baseline, with tails possible toward 0.224–0.225 on an upside extension.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, approx): Mid-band (SMA20) ≈ 0.218. Estimated band width suggests lower band ~0.186–0.19 and upper band ~0.246–0.25. Current price sits in the lower third of the band with a tendency for mean reversion toward 0.218 if momentum persists.
• Keltner Channels (qualitative): Price is transitioning from lower to middle channel; expansions typically follow compressions—today’s steady intraday climb hints at an early expansion phase upward.

6. Volume, flow, and participation

• Daily volume has normalized from July’s spikes; recent reads (80–125M) are moderate. No blow-off on the rebound yet—constructive for a controlled mean reversion rather than a squeeze.
• OBV (qualitative): After a downtrend, OBV looks to be stabilizing given successive green closes since 09/01. No strong accumulation signature yet, but distribution has slowed.
• Money Flow/CMF (qualitative): Likely near neutral to mildly negative, improving with today’s intraday net upticks.

7. Key levels: support and resistance (multi-method confluence)

• Supports:
  • 0.2074 (08/31 close) and 0.2060–0.2065 (intraday prints) – near-term line in the sand for the rebound structure
  • 0.2035–0.2040 (today’s higher low cluster)
  • 0.2000 psychological; 0.1984 (08/25 low)
  • 0.1934 (09/01 close) and 0.1883 (09/01 low) – major support; break would re-accelerate the downtrend
• Resistances:
  • 0.2108–0.2115 (intraday lid / micro-breakout confirmation zone)
  • 0.2158 (R1 pivot; see pivots below)
  • 0.2180 (20-SMA) – first significant daily mean-reversion target
  • 0.2228–0.2250 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement + prior supply band)
  • 0.2300 round number; 0.2366 (late-Aug swing high)

8. Pivots (derived from 09/02 H/L/C = 0.213578/0.193272/0.206727)

• Pivot (P) ≈ (H+L+C)/3 = 0.20453
• R1 ≈ 0.21578
• S1 ≈ 0.19547
• R2 ≈ P + (H−L) = 0.22483
• S2 ≈ 0.18422 Confluence: R1 ~0.2158 aligns below the 20-SMA (0.218). R2 ~0.2248 sits squarely in the 0.223–0.225 supply band and matches the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement area (see next section).

9. Fibonacci framework (swing: 0.33784 high on 07/20 → 0.18830 low on 09/01)

• Range: 0.14954
• 23.6%: 0.18830 + 0.236*0.14954 ≈ 0.2236
• 38.2%: ≈ 0.2455
• 50%: ≈ 0.2631
• 61.8%: ≈ 0.2807 Implications: The first material retracement cap is ~0.2236, which overlaps R2 ~0.2248 and the prior supply band 0.222–0.225. This is a high-odds profit-taking zone for a 24h bounce.

10. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative approximation)

• Price below the cloud (bearish higher timeframe bias)
• Tenkan (conversion) likely near the short-term mid (around 0.209–0.211) and Kijun (baseline) closer to ~0.215–0.217. Tenkan crossing up toward/beyond Kijun would support a push to the 20-SMA. Cloud overhead in the 0.22–0.23 area adds confluence to resistance into 0.223–0.225.

11. Candlestick/pattern read

• 09/01 prints a long lower wick (hammer-like) at 0.188–0.193, followed by 09/02 green close: a 2–3 candle bullish reversal sequence (morning-star-like) is forming.
• Today’s intraday sequence of higher lows and a marginal breakout through ~0.210 adds confirmation to short-term bulls.

12. Statistical/mean reversion overlays

• Z-score vs. 20-SMA: (0.210 − 0.218)/σ; with σ roughly ~0.015, z ≈ −0.53. Prices in the lower third but not at extremes; mean-reversion probability moderate, favoring a test toward 0.215–0.218.
• Regression channel (short window): Slope turning slightly positive in the last 24–36 hours.

13. 24-hour scenario map and probabilities (qualitative)

• Bullish continuation (≈60%): Hold 0.206–0.208, push 0.211–0.212, tag 0.2158 (R1), attempt at 0.218 (SMA20). On momentum extension and/or strong tape, overshoot into 0.222–0.223. Risk: sellers reappear at SMA20 or the 0.222 supply band.
• Sideways consolidation (≈25%): Choppy 0.206–0.212 while awaiting a catalyst; range expansion deferred.
• Bearish relapse (≈15%): Lose 0.206 and 0.2035; revisit 0.200–0.198. Only a decisive break of 0.195–0.193 would reassert strong downside trend continuation. Expected 24h range: 0.203–0.223; directional tilt upward toward 0.218–0.223.

14. Trade plan synthesis (tools integrated)

• Confluences to the upside: mean-reversion magnet at SMA20 (~0.218), pivot R1 (~0.2158), Fibonacci 23.6% (~0.2236), intraday structure improving, RSI rising, MACD histogram contracting.
• Headwinds: still below SMA20/50 and below Ichimoku cloud; 0.222–0.225 supply is dense; primary trend remains down, so treat this as a tactical long, not a swing trend change.
• Risk/Reward (illustrative):
  • Proposed entry (limit) ≈ 0.2092 near intraday support, gives cushion below current price.
  • Target (take profit) ≈ 0.2232 (just below Fibonacci 23.6%/R2 confluence for increased fill odds).
  • Optional stop (not required, but prudent): 0.2028 (below today’s higher-low cluster ~0.2035). Risk ≈ −0.0064 (−3.1%); Reward ≈ +0.0140 (+6.7%); R:R ≈ 2.2:1.

Bottom line

• Bias for next 24 hours: Mildly bullish mean reversion toward 0.218–0.223, provided 0.206–0.208 support holds. Primary downtrend intact above ~0.225–0.236; this is a tactical long with defined resistance targets.

Decision

• Buy (Long position)

Execution

• Open (Buy) around 0.2092 (limit) to optimize entry on a minor pullback; if momentum accelerates, consider a buy-stop alternative above 0.2115 to confirm breakout.
• Close (Take Profit) around 0.2232 within the 0.222–0.225 supply zone, ahead of Fibonacci 23.6% (0.2236) and R2 (0.2248).
• If active risk control is desired, a stop near 0.2028 protects the setup should support fail.