Popcat poised for a neckline retest and launch toward the 0.36s

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bullish continuation with constructive dip-buy zone 0.344–0.346 and upside magnet toward 0.362–0.370. Probability-weighted path favors a retest of the breakout zone followed by extension into first Fibonacci resistance.
• Decision: Buy (Long). Optimal is a limit on a pullback to the breakout-retest area; momentum alternative is a stop-entry above 0.351 (not used for the single-price output below).

1. Market structure and price action (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: From mid-May peak ~0.58, multi-week downtrend into late June lows ~0.26–0.30, then July rally topping ~0.484 (7/22), followed by pullback into early Aug trough ~0.286 (8/2). Since 8/2, higher lows and now a higher high on 8/10 intraday, positioning price back above the 20D mean.
• Hourly structure (8/10): Sequential higher lows from ~0.326→0.332→0.340→0.344, breakout to 0.349–0.350. Volume expanded during the breakout candle cluster 16:00–19:00 UTC, confirming participation.
• Key S/R levels: • Supports: 0.344–0.346 (today’s breakout shelf/pivot R3 retest zone), 0.339–0.341 (hourly base), 0.327–0.330 (recent closes), 0.313–0.316, 0.303, 0.295, 0.285. • Resistances: 0.350 (psych/round), 0.360–0.365 (38.2% retrace cluster, prior swing supply), 0.375–0.383 (measured iH&S target/July supply), 0.392–0.404, 0.420–0.436.
• Pattern: Clear inverse head-and-shoulders across late Jul–early Aug with neckline ~0.327–0.333. Breakout on 8/10. Measured move ≈ neckline (0.333) – head (0.285) ≈ 0.048; target ≈ 0.381, aligning with a known supply band (0.376–0.383). Near-term (24h) target likely the first resistance band below that: 0.360–0.370.

2. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.342 (approx from last 20 closes). Price 0.349 > 20D SMA: short-term momentum restored.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ mid-0.36s. Price remains slightly below the 50D, indicating the medium-term downtrend isn’t fully reversed; expect resistance as price approaches 0.36–0.37.
• Hourly 20EMA > 50EMA after 8/10 breakout; pullbacks to the 20EMA (intraday) likely around 0.344–0.346 in the near term.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) est. ~60–63: bullish but not overbought, with room to run toward 65–70 before first serious momentum fade.
• Hourly RSI: reached overbought during the ramp to 0.349, then cooled via sideways consolidation (bullish digestion). Suggests shallow pullback potential before the next leg up.
• MACD (daily): Histogram turning positive from a negative regime; 12/26 cross developing upward, signaling early-stage momentum reversal. On hourly, MACD > signal with a minor flattening (consolidation) after the breakout.
• Stochastic (daily): Rising from mid to high zone, not pegged; supports continuation but warns to expect reactions at 0.360–0.365.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid ≈ 0.342; price near upper half but below upper band (upper est. ~0.41), indicating no squeeze break exhaustion yet. Room to extend toward 0.36–0.37 without band breach.
• Keltner (daily, ATR-based): Price pushing upper channel; often implies either trend continuation or a controlled reversion into MA on minor dips. With expanding hourly volume, continuation odds are higher in next 24h.
• ATR(14) daily est. ~0.028–0.032. A typical strong day’s move from 0.346 would reasonably reach 0.368± given current volatility.

5. Fibonacci, pivots, and confluence

• Fibonacci retracement (swing 0.4838 high on 7/22 to 0.2858 low on 8/2): • 38.2% = ~0.361 • 50% = ~0.385 • 61.8% = ~0.408 First test is 0.361, a prime 24h objective under intact momentum.
• Classical pivots (8/8 H/L/C: 0.3311/0.3161/0.3245): PP≈0.3239, R3≈0.3466. Price currently above R3 → confirms breakout energy. Retest of 0.346–0.347 is typical before extension.
• Confluence: iH&S measured move (~0.381) sits just above the 50% fib (~0.385) and under daily upper BB band—strong multi-tool alignment. For the next 24h, the 38.2% fib (0.361) coincides with 50D SMA proximity and historical supply—first upside friction zone.

6. Volume/flow indicators

• OBV: Turned up since 8/2; the 8/10 hourly breakout added a positive kink. Supports the validity of the upside push.
• Chaikin Money Flow (daily, qualitative): After sustained negative during July’s fade, CMF likely rising toward/through zero as closes shift to upper ranges on up-volume days—consistent with accumulation.
• Accumulation/Distribution: Tilted positive in early Aug—buyers absorbing dips around 0.30–0.33, then stepping up into 0.34–0.35.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative estimation)

• Price above Tenkan (9) and roughly around/above Kijun (26) ~0.33–0.34, with the cloud underside likely ~0.36–0.37. The immediate battle is the cloud base; first touch often produces a reaction. If price can close above ~0.365–0.37 on volume, a cleaner bullish regime emerges.

8. Donchian/Breakout context

• 20D Donchian high still up near 0.48; midline ~0.385. Present price is reclaiming the lower/middle region—typical of phase shifts where initial rallies puncture short-term resistance, then consolidate before pushing toward the channel midline. Next step: tag 0.36–0.37 first.

9. Wyckoff/Elliott context (light-touch)

• Wyckoff: Accumulation range July 28–Aug 7, spring near 0.286 on 8/2, sign of strength on 8/10. Current action resembles a last point of support (LPS) attempt near 0.344–0.346.
• Elliott (micro): From 8/2 low, a 5-leg impulse higher is plausible, with today’s move akin to a wave-3 continuation on the hourly. A shallow wave-4 dip into 0.344–0.346 followed by a 5th to 0.362–0.368 fits.

10. Risk framing and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Minor pullback to 0.344–0.346 (retest of pivot R3/breakout shelf) holds, then push to 0.362–0.368. Intraday wicks may test 0.350–0.352 en route; first hard supply appears near 0.361–0.365.
• Bullish extension (≈25%): Momentum negates pullback; immediate drive through 0.351–0.355, squeeze into 0.368–0.372 by end of window.
• Bearish fade (≈15%): Failure to hold 0.344–0.346 leads to quick visit of 0.339–0.341. Loss of 0.339 risks a deeper check toward 0.330–0.333 before buyers reassert.
• Invalidation for the long idea (tactical): Hourly close below ~0.337–0.339 would damage the breakout structure and postpone the 0.36 test.

11. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge sources: iH&S breakout + hourly higher highs/lows + reclaim of 20D SMA + MACD/RSI constructive + OBV/volume confirmation + confluence of 38.2% fib with known supply.
• Execution: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit at 0.346 (retest zone). If momentum front-runs, chasing above 0.351 is acceptable but lower R:R; we prioritize the pullback entry for optimal expectancy.
• Take-profit (24h): Primary target 0.368, just inside the 0.361–0.370 resistance cluster, aligned with ATR feasibility and typical first test behavior. This captures the most probable extension before a reaction.
• Risk guide (not part of the required fields but for completeness): Consider a tactical stop ~0.336–0.337 to protect against a failed retest, preserving a favorable R:R to 0.368.

12. Final view

• Bias: Buy dips. Expect 0.344–0.346 to be defended; path of least resistance is a test of 0.361 first and likely probe into 0.365–0.368 within 24 hours, assuming broader crypto tape remains stable.