Popcat cracks the floor: targeting 0.128 on a failed throwback

Summary view

• Regime: Strongly bearish short-term. POPCAT broke a multi-week range floor (≈0.142–0.146) and is printing fresh local lows (≈0.134–0.135) on declining liquidity, pointing to continuation lower before any durable bounce.
• 24h Bias: Down first, then potential minor mean-reversion. Expected range 0.128–0.145 with a bearish skew; base case close near 0.129–0.133.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily structure: A persistent downtrend since mid-September lower-high at ~0.29 followed by the Oct-10 crash (intraday capitulation to ~0.08, close ~0.1504). Post-crash, price formed a weak consolidation band 0.146–0.175. That band failed this week. Today’s push through 0.142–0.139 converted that shelf into resistance.
• 4h/hourly structure: Series of lower highs from 0.164 → 0.159 → 0.153 → 0.148 → 0.142, with successive lower lows, culminating in the current print ~0.135. The breakdown candle sequence has wide bodies and shallow upper wicks, typical of trend acceleration.

Trend and moving averages

• Daily EMAs/SMA (est.): Price well below the 20D and 50D moving averages (20D ≈ mid-0.15s; 50D ≈ low/mid-0.20s). Strong negative slope on 20D → bearish momentum intact.
• Hourly EMAs: 20EMA < 50EMA with widening gap; multiple failed retests confirm intraday “sell-the-rip.”

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): Low 30s and rolling down toward 30—bearish with room for brief oversold bounces but not yet showing a bullish divergence versus price.
• Hourly RSI: Dipped into oversold during the breakdown, but rebounds have been weak (RSI bear range 25–45). Momentum remains downside-dominant.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.010–0.012, rising after today’s break; BB width expanding as bands open downward → trend phase rather than mean-reversion regime.
• Expectation: Continuation drives to 0.130–0.128 before a reflexive test higher.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price closed outside/near the lower band with a downward band expansion. Historically, in this series, the first close outside often leads to 1–2 additional pushes lower before a proper snapback. That supports a downside probe into the high-0.12s.

Ichimoku (daily and 4h)

• Price < cloud; conversion (Tenkan) < base (Kijun); lagging span below price and cloud. All four classic bearish conditions align; the base line around mid-0.15s now a distant resistance.

Volume, liquidity, and profiles

• Post-crash, the heaviest volume nodes sit ~0.15–0.16; current price is beneath this high-volume node, turning it into overhead resistance.
• Today’s intraday selloff occurred on moderate volume—enough to break support but not yet capitulative. This often allows a “throwback” retest into 0.138–0.141 that fails and resumes lower.

Support/resistance mapping

• Resistance: 0.141–0.143 (range shelf and breakdown pivot), 0.148–0.150 (prior balance and HVN), 0.156–0.160 (20D mean zone).
• Support: 0.135 (current local), 0.131–0.130 (minor line-in-sand), 0.128 (measured objective), then 0.120 and 0.110. Extreme tail risk at 0.08 (Oct-10 wick) if liquidity evaporates.

Pattern diagnostics

• Range breakdown: The 0.146–0.165 consolidation failed. Retests of broken ranges typically reject on first attempt.
• Descending channel: Price hugging the lower rail; momentum pushes along the lower boundary typically persist until a momentum fade/divergence emerges (not present yet).
• Candlesticks: Consecutive red bodies with weak upper wicks → aggressive supply; absence of hammer-like responses at new lows.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Measured move from the 10/29 swing high (0.164) to today’s mid-session low (≈0.142) equals ~0.022. After a weak bounce to ~0.147, a symmetric leg projects to ~0.124–0.125. For the next 24h, a prudent interim target sits above at ~0.128 where minor demand has clustered.

VWAP/anchored considerations

• Anchored VWAP from the Oct-10 event (capitulation) likely sits ~0.153–0.156. Price is decisively below, reinforcing sellers’ control; first real mean-reversion magnet is that AVWAP zone, but only after this leg completes.

Order flow/behavioral context

• The Oct-10 shock created a “scar” below 0.15. Since then, rallies stalled under 0.175, showing supply reloading overhead. Today’s break of 0.139–0.142 likely triggered stops, opening an air-pocket to ~0.130–0.128 where next passive bids are expected.

Probabilistic path for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Minor throwback to 0.138–0.140 fails → trend resumes to 0.130–0.128; stabilization around 0.129–0.133 by end of window.
• Bear extension (25%): No throwback; slides directly to 0.126–0.124 measured move before a sharper bounce toward 0.130.
• Bull surprise (20%): Stronger mean-reversion squeezes to 0.143–0.146. This would require an impulsive buy catalyst; probability lower absent volume shift and given current structure.

Risk management (for context)

• Invalidation for shorts: A 4h close back above ~0.143–0.145 (reclaim of breakdown shelf) weakens the immediate bear case and opens a squeeze toward ~0.150.

Trade plan synthesis

• Setup: Short the throwback into 0.138–0.140, targeting the 0.128 liquidity pocket. This aligns with trend, MA slope, BB expansion, Ichimoku, and broken range dynamics. If no throwback occurs, risk is missing the first tranche; but chasing breakdowns late has adverse R:R.

Decision: Sell (Short Position). Rationale: Fresh breakdown, bearish momentum across tools, clean downside targets, and favorable asymmetric entry on a retest.

24h price prediction: 0.128–0.145 range, with end-of-window near 0.129–0.133 (bearish skew).