1. Analysis: Exhaustive Multi-Technique Evaluation of Raydium (RAY)

A. High-Level Trend Analysis

Long-term Trend (Daily Data)

• Uptrend to Downtrend Transition:
  • Feb 19–24: RAY traded around $4.2–$4.6, followed by a pronounced crash (~35%) to sub-$3 after Feb 24 ($2.99 close with >580M volume -> climactic selling).
  • Feb 25–Mar 18: Ranged $1.5–$2.0 with base formation (~3 weeks), suggesting seller exhaustion and possible accumulation.
  • Mar 18–Apr 15: Choppy grinding recovery, making higher lows (~$1.7 → $2.06), then breakout above $2.2, $2.6–$2.9.
  • Apr 24–May 13: Breakout and trending bull action up to $3.42–$3.84 (May 14 high) suggesting bullish momentum revival, followed by correction.
  • May 16–19: Another corrective move ($3.56 → $3.07), then a failed rebound. This points to potential trend exhaution or base-building for next move.

Medium/Short-term (4h/1h Data)

• Recent 30h:
  • Weak action: sharp drop from $3.41 (May 18 07:00 UTC) to $3.14 (now), failed two intra-day rally attempts, increasing wicks and failed follow-through.
  • Volatility contracted. Down-sloping short-term moving average.
• Consolidation Area: $3.07–$3.17, failed rebounds above $3.18. Lower highs.

B. Volume & Order Flow

• Major volume spikes on downturns (2/24, then 5/12–5/14). Recent trend: selling volume outweighs buying volume, little whale absorption.
• Today: No significant buy-side volume at support (no reversal signal from large funds).

C. Support/Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Support: $3.10, major one at $3.05. Next at $2.93 and $2.75.
• Overhead Resistance: $3.18, then $3.26, $3.40.
• Price repeatedly rejected at all bounce attempts near $3.17–$3.18.

D. Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages:
  • 10 & 20 EMA (hourly): Downward sloping, prices trade below both; signals short-term weakness.
  • 50 EMA (4h): Overtopped a day ago, support lost.
• RSI:
  • Daily: Cooling down to mid-low 40s from overbought (>70, May 13).
  • Hourly: No bullish divergence; RSI ~36–40 for four hours, typical in a downtrend continuation.
• MACD:
  • Crossed bearish (1h, 4h) with widening negative histogram bars; no bottoming sign.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Squeezing (1h), price hugging or falling below lower band; points to downside momentum with occasional minor bounces.

E. Price Action/Psychological Behavior

• Gravestone and shooting star candles on intraday. Strong selling on minor rallies.
• Lower high, lower low sequence remains intact.
  • Each reaction high ($3.42, $3.34, $3.17) is progressively lower, with rallies becoming weaker.

F. Pattern Recognition

• Bear flag/wedge formation visible from May 15–18, breakdown confirmed as price lost $3.18–$3.10.
• Failed breakout attempts above $3.18 with little bullish conviction, suggesting trap for late bulls.

G. Fibonacci Retracements (from $1.70 → $3.84 swing)

• Key levels: 0.5 at $2.77, 0.618 at $2.41.
• Price is still above 0.5 retracement, but momentum to downside increases risk of further move towards $2.77 and possibly $2.60 if $3.05–$3.10 fails.

H. Inter-Market/Correlation Check

• RAY price action partially echoes broader altcoin market consolidation/correction phase, but has relatively higher volatility during both up and down moves.

I. Statistical Summary (Last 30 Days)

• Positive days outnumbered negative in the May run-up, but last 5 days show net negative return.
• Volatility expansion on down moves (90%+ volume).

J. Scenario Analysis & Risk Assessment

• Bearish scenario likely unless $3.18 is reclaimed with volume. If $3.10 support breaks decisively, high probability of $2.93–$2.77 test.
• Little sign of absorption by big buyers at this level; no long wick reversals or volume spikes.

K. Consensus & Synthesis

• The interplay of moving averages, momentum oscillators, volume analysis, and chart patterns point to ongoing short-term weakness. Market structure favors another leg down. Upside pivots only if $3.18–$3.22 is taken out on high volume, which is currently not indicated.
• Sell/short entries near $3.15–$3.17 look optimal, with stops above $3.22. Conservative profit targets at $2.93–$2.77.

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Final View:

• Overall outlook: Bearish short-term, potentially bullish at lower levels for swing re-entry if reversal signals appear. For now, traders should look for short opportunities on failed rallies.