RAY: Building a Base Above $1.05 — Aiming for a Liquidity Sweep Toward $1.11

Executive summary and immediate context

• Instrument: Raydium (RAY), quote currency USD
• Current price: 1.0697 (as of 2025-11-24 16:10 UTC)
• Time horizon for forecast: next 24 hours
• Market state: After a two-month downtrend and capitulation into the 0.99–1.03 area, price is attempting an early-stage rebound, with intraday higher lows and a retest of short-term resistances around 1.09–1.12.

Multi-timeframe structure and trend

1. Daily timeframe (primary bias carrier)

• Structure: Clear series of lower highs and lower lows from late September through mid-November. Major breakdown on Oct 10 (large intraday wick to ~1.05 followed by sustained weakness), then continued decline to a cycle low 0.978 (Nov 22).
• Recent shift: A selling climax (SC) around Nov 21–22 (0.99–0.98), quick automatic rally (AR) into 1.115–1.116 (Nov 23), and a secondary test (ST) down to ~1.033 on Nov 24 early hours. This sequence resembles the early Wyckoff accumulation template (SC-AR-ST) rather than distribution.
• Key daily levels from recent candles:
  • Support cluster: 0.99–1.03 (Nov 21–24 lows)
  • Resistance cluster: 1.093 (Nov 23 21:00h high), 1.115–1.116 (Nov 23 22:00h high and daily high)
  • Higher resistances (not likely in 24h): 1.17–1.27 (fib 23.6%/38.2%)
• Moving averages (approximate):
  • 20-D SMA ≈ 1.25–1.30 (using last 20 closes ranging ~1.63 down to ~1.03) – price below; mean reversion room above.
  • 50-D SMA ≈ 1.55–1.70 – well above price; the higher timeframe trend remains down.
  • Interpretation: Long-term downtrend intact, but price extended below the 20-D and trying to re-mean-revert. Near-term bounce likely while below the 20-D cap.
• Momentum:
  • Daily RSI-14 estimated 41–45, rising from sub-35 on the recent low – early recovery but not overbought.
  • Daily MACD: Deeply negative, histogram contracting toward zero since Nov 21 – bullish momentum improvement underway but not a confirmed daily bullish cross yet.
• Volatility:
  • Daily ATR-14 ≈ 0.12–0.15. Expect daily swings of ~6–12% around the mean. A 24h push from 1.07 toward 1.11–1.14 is feasible; above 1.16 would likely require a volatility expansion.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price rebounded from/below the lower band near 1.00 and is back inside the bands, typically favoring a drift toward the mid-band (~20-D SMA near 1.27) over days, not necessarily within 24h.

2. Hourly timeframe (execution and 24h signal)

• Structure: From the intraday low ~1.033 (Nov 24 09–11h), price has printed higher lows: 1.045 > 1.033 > 1.043 > 1.050 > 1.064 > 1.070 – constructive micro uptrend.
• Resistances nearby: 1.0709 (15:00h high), 1.093 (Nov 23 21:00h), 1.115 (Nov 23 22:00h). A move above 1.071–1.074 opens 1.085/1.093, then 1.108–1.115.
• Hourly MAs (approx.):
  • 20-H SMA ≈ 1.054–1.056; price trading above – positive near-term bias.
  • 50-H SMA ≈ 1.052–1.055; also below price – confirms newfound intraday support zone 1.05–1.06.
• Momentum:
  • Hourly RSI-14 ≈ 56–60, consistent with a modestly bullish regime, leaving room to test prior highs without immediate overbought risk.
  • Hourly MACD: Above signal with positive histogram since the 1.03–1.05 base; pullbacks have produced shallow histogram dips – constructive.
  • Stochastics: Cycling above the median line, favoring shallow pullbacks and continuation toward resistance taps.
• Volatility:
  • Hourly ATR-14 ≈ 0.017–0.020; current range compression after yesterday’s spike creates a low-to-moderate expansion potential. A 2–3x ATR up-move projects 1.10–1.11 on a successful push.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) on H1:
  • Bands modestly tight; price oscillating near/just above the middle band, curling higher. Squeeze behavior favors a directional move; the slope and momentum swing suggest an upside bias.
• Ichimoku (H1, classic 9/26/52):
  • Price is above Tenkan and near/above Kijun; the cloud ahead is thin with a possible bullish twist, but an overhang remains around 1.09–1.11 (prior highs coincide with likely upper cloud boundary) – resistance but penetrable with momentum.
• Parabolic SAR (H1): Likely flipped below price during the 1.045–1.05 recovery; trailing support estimated around 1.055–1.058.
• OBV/Volume tone:
  • Large volume arrived on the 1.09–1.11 spike (Nov 23 21–22h). Despite the upper wick, subsequent pullback failed to break 1.03 decisively and volumes dried into base-building – suggests supply absorption. OBV slope on H1 is gently rising from the 1.03 base.

Support/resistance, pivots, liquidity

• Yesterday’s daily pivot set (from 2025-11-23 H/L/C = 1.1162/0.9908/1.0587):
  • Pivot P ≈ 1.0552
  • R1 ≈ 1.1197
  • S1 ≈ 0.9943
  • R2 ≈ 1.1807, S2 ≈ 0.9298
  • Interpretation: Price currently sits above P, with R1 aligning closely to the 1.115–1.12 supply zone. S1 aligns with the 0.99–1.00 demand shelf.
• Intraday levels from hourly highs/lows:
  • Support: 1.050–1.056 (confluence of H1 20/50 SMA, daily pivot P, SAR trail)
  • Secondary support: 1.033 (ST low), then 1.00 (psychological and S1)
  • Resistance: 1.071–1.074 (minor), 1.085/1.093 (prior H1 swing), 1.108–1.115 (cluster below R1)
• Liquidity hunt: Above 1.093 sits resting liquidity from the 11/23 spike; a stop run through 1.095–1.115 is a plausible magnet in the next 24h. Below, liquidity pockets sit around 1.05 and 1.03; sub-1.03 break would likely target the parity zone again.

Fibonacci mapping (swing 11/11 high to 11/22 low)

• Swing high: ~1.717 (Nov 11)
• Swing low: ~0.995 (Nov 22)
• Range: ~0.722
• Key retracements from 0.995:
  • 23.6% ≈ 1.165
  • 38.2% ≈ 1.270
  • 50% ≈ 1.356
  • 61.8% ≈ 1.441
• Interpretation: Price is still below even 23.6% retrace, emphasizing how early this bounce is. For the next 24h, a realistic stretch target sits just shy of 23.6% (i.e., 1.11–1.16 is the local battleground, with 1.115 the first testable node).

Pattern diagnostics and advanced frameworks

• Wyckoff: SC (0.99–0.98), AR (1.11–1.116), ST (1.03) – now in Phase B with range-building. Expect rotations toward the top of the range (1.09–1.12) as the next probe. Confirmation of Phase C would be a spring toward 1.00 followed by a sharp reclaim; not required for a near-term top-of-range test.
• Elliott Wave (micro): From the 0.978–0.995 base, Wave 1 to 1.116, Wave 2 to ~1.033, and nascent Wave 3 underway toward 1.11–1.15. In the next 24h, a conservative Wave 3 target aligns with 1.108–1.115.
• Linear regression (H1, last 24–30 bars): Up-sloping channel; price hugging the mid/upper band suggests continuation until a mean reversion to ~1.055 occurs.
• Mean reversion: With price currently modestly above intraday VWAP (~1.054–1.057 est.), small pullbacks toward 1.06 are probable buy-the-dip opportunities within the micro uptrend.

Risk and scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Grind higher with shallow dips to 1.06–1.065; break 1.071–1.074, test 1.085/1.093, partial acceptance above 1.09; wicks into 1.108–1.115 possible. Close near 1.09–1.11.
• Bullish extension (≈25%): Strong momentum day; sustained trade above 1.095 leads to stop sweep through 1.108–1.115; intraday stretch could tag 1.12; extreme print to 1.13–1.14 would require volatility expansion beyond current H1 BB width, less likely without fresh catalysts.
• Bearish alternative (≈20%): Failure to clear 1.071 followed by a slip under 1.056 and 1.050; liquidity sweep to 1.033. A decisive break below 1.029 would re-open 1.00 and S1 ~0.994. This is the invalidation zone for the near-term long bias.

Indicator-by-indicator synthesis

• MAs: H1 above 20/50 MAs (bullish micro). Daily below 20/50 MAs (bearish macro). This mismatch favors mean reversion long intraday but cap near overhead resistance.
• RSI: Daily rising from oversold, H1 in bullish mid-zone – room for a push into resistance.
• MACD: Daily histogram improving (less negative), H1 positive cross and expanding – momentum supports an attempt higher.
• Bollinger: H1 narrowing bands + price near mid/upper band – entropy compression before a push; directionally biased upward given structure.
• Ichimoku: Price above Tenkan/Kijun with thin overhead cloud – suggests a test into cloud resistance 1.09–1.11.
• ATR: Room for 3–5 hourly ATRs higher puts 1.10–1.11 in reach without overstretching.
• Volume/OBV: Post-spike consolidation with rising OBV – accumulation characteristics.
• Pivots: Above daily P (~1.055); R1 (~1.120) aligns with supply – suitable profit-taking zone for an intraday long.

Trade construction and execution plan (next 24h)

• Rationale to go long: Microstructure higher lows, price above intraday MAs and pivot, momentum improving, and liquidity magnet near 1.093/1.115. The 1.05–1.06 zone is strong confluence support (H1 MAs, SAR, pivot).
• Optimal entry: Seek a buy-the-dip limit in 1.060–1.064 to align risk below 1.050/1.033 while improving reward to 1.108–1.115.
• Targeting: Primary target 1.112 (just below the 1.115 spike high and under daily R1 at 1.1197 to increase fill probability). This aligns with liquidity and reduces slippage risk compared to aiming at exact highs.
• Invalidation (not requested but essential): A clean H1 close below 1.050 would warn of a deeper sweep; a loss of 1.033 invalidates the near-term long structure and reopens parity.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected path: Minor dip or sideways into 1.060–1.065, then attempt through 1.071–1.074. If accepted above 1.074, momentum likely carries to 1.085–1.093. A further push into 1.108–1.115 is probable if bids hold on first pullback above 1.09. End-of-window close bias: 1.088–1.108.

Conclusion

• While the higher timeframe downtrend remains, the intraday evidence supports a tactical long toward 1.11–1.115 over the next 24 hours, using the 1.05–1.06 area as a tactical risk anchor. Entering slightly below current price optimizes the reward/risk and the fill probability.