SAND coils under 0.211: pivot-hold setup eyes 0.214–0.218 in the next 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe read on SAND (USD), with emphasis on the last month’s structure and today’s intraday tape. I combine trend, momentum, volatility, volume, market structure, pivots, and pattern analysis, then translate that into a concrete trade plan and 24-hour path expectations.

1. Trend and Market Structure

• Primary trend (Daily): Still down from September highs (~0.30–0.33) with an October 10 capitulation (intraday low ~0.115, close ~0.186). Since then, price has been basing in a broad 0.174–0.219 range.
• Intermediate structure (Daily, since Nov 3–7): A constructive change of character: higher low on Nov 6 (~0.175) vs the Nov 4 low (~0.1635), followed by a higher high on Nov 7 (~0.2134) versus prior swing highs around ~0.209. That marks a nascent uptrend inside the broader base.
• Near-term structure (Hourly, past 24–36h): Repeated rejections near 0.2107–0.2110 with shallow pullbacks into 0.205–0.206. This forms a flat-top consolidation/mini ascending triangle/box under 0.211. Buyers are probing offers at that ceiling without ceding much ground.

2. Moving Averages (approximate, Daily closes)

• 10-SMA ≈ 0.1955; 20-SMA ≈ 0.2027; price = 0.2056. Price is above 10 and just above 20, a mild bullish tilt after the October drawdown.
• 5-SMA ≈ 0.196 rising sharply (thanks to Nov 7); supports a short-term upswing.
• 50-SMA (approx) still much higher (~0.26) reflecting the larger downtrend; the larger regime remains bearish but near-term momentum has turned positive.
• Read: Early-stage mean reversion off the lows with price reclaiming fast MAs and hovering over the 20-SMA; constructive for a range expansion attempt toward 0.212–0.219 if resistance yields.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) (Daily, approx): ~46–48. Neutral and trending higher from sub-40 readings, leaving headroom before overbought.
• Stochastic (Daily, approx): %K in the high 70s–80s due to low anchor at 0.1635; this warns of potential short-term pauses but is less concerning in the context of a fresh base and not yet at prior resistance extremes.
• MACD (Daily, qualitative): After the October plunge, the MACD line is below zero but has flattened and likely crossed its signal recently; histogram around flat/positive. This is consistent with a forming bottom and early-cycle momentum.
• Read: Momentum is improving but not stretched; room exists for a push to the recent 0.213–0.219 band.

4. Volatility and Bands

• ATR(14) (Daily, approx): ~0.014–0.016. Implies typical 1-day swing near 6–8% from current price, i.e., rough range 0.19–0.22 if volatility persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, Daily): Mid-band ≈ 0.203; upper ≈ 0.229; lower ≈ 0.177 (approx). Price sits slightly above the mid-band. A move to the upper band is plausible if 0.211–0.214 breaks, with 0.219–0.229 the next volatility-defined region.
• Read: Volatility compressed relative to the capitulation but still healthy; positioning near the middle band is often a springboard toward the upper band when structure tightens beneath resistance.

5. Support/Resistance and Levels That Matter

• Immediate resistance: 0.2107–0.2110 (hourly flat-top), then 0.2145–0.2150 (daily supply and prior reaction zone), then 0.218–0.222 (R2 / prior pivot highs Oct 26–27).
• Immediate supports: 0.205–0.206 (intraday shelf), 0.2049 (today’s pivot P), 0.201–0.203 (prior micro-bid zone), 0.1987 (S1), 0.1969 (Oct 30 close), and 0.194 area (Fibo 0.382 from the Nov 4–7 impulse and prior clustering).
• Fibonacci (Nov 4 low 0.1635 to Nov 7 high 0.2134): 0.382 ≈ 0.1944; 0.5 ≈ 0.1885; 0.618 ≈ 0.1826. Recent pullbacks held above 0.194–0.196, reinforcing that zone’s importance.
• Read: 0.2107–0.2110 is the near-term trigger. Above it, 0.2145–0.218 is in play. Below, 0.203–0.205 is a buy-the-dip zone; a decisive break under 0.198–0.196 would threaten the fledgling uptrend.

6. Volume/Flow

• Post-capitulation volumes elevated; notable green day Nov 7 (~92M) suggests accumulation interest. The last two sessions eased but remained constructive (~53–63M), with no distribution spikes.
• OBV (qualitative) has stabilized and is inching up since Nov 4; not breaking out yet, but constructive.
• Intraday VWAP (today) likely sits ~0.208. Current price (~0.2056) is below VWAP, indicating intraday sellers have slight control; however, the broader daily picture remains supportive above 0.203–0.205.
• Read: No aggressive distribution; dips attract bids. A VWAP reclaim intraday would likely coincide with a test of 0.210–0.211.

7. Intraday Pivots (based on 11/09 H/L/C: H≈0.21106, L≈0.19761, C≈0.20591)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.20486; R1 ≈ 0.21211; S1 ≈ 0.19866; R2 ≈ 0.21831; S2 ≈ 0.19141; R3 ≈ 0.22557; S3 ≈ 0.1852.
• Current price is just above P and below R1. Base case is a ping between P and R1, with breakout attempts toward R2 if volume expands.

8. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan likely above Kijun after the Nov 7 thrust; price remains below the cloud. That combination (bullish TK cross below cloud) is typical of an early recovery phase but still under longer-term resistance. Bullish if the Kijun (~0.20 area) holds as support on dips.

9. Pattern Diagnostics

• Hourly flat-top/ascending-triangle attempt with equal highs near 0.2107–0.2110 and higher lows clustering 0.205–0.206. Measured move on a breakout can project toward 0.214–0.218 initially (aligns with R1/R2 and daily supply around 0.214–0.219). A larger measured move using the Nov 3–7 impulse would target mid-0.24s, but that’s beyond the 24-hour window and would require heavy volume.

10. Statistical/Bias Summary for the Next 24 Hours

• Base Case (60%): Hold above 0.203–0.205, probe 0.210–0.211, and close in the 0.209–0.212 area. Intraday mean reversion around the pivot with upside skew.
• Bull Case (25%): Break and hold above 0.211, extend to 0.2145–0.2183 (R1 to R2 zone) on rising volume; wicks possibly into 0.219–0.222 if momentum accelerates.
• Bear Case (15%): Lose 0.203, test S1 (0.1987) and potentially 0.1969–0.195; a daily close back under 0.200 would dent the short-term bullish structure but still keep the broader base intact above 0.188–0.194.

11. Trade Plan and Risk Management

• Bias: Buy dips within 0.203–0.205, targeting a push into 0.214–0.218 within 24 hours. Avoid chasing into 0.211–0.212 unless volume confirms a breakout.
• Entry: Optimal limit buy around 0.2038–0.2045 (near pivot P and intraday shelf), with tolerance to add near 0.2025 if a liquidity sweep occurs.
• Stop (suggested, not requested but prudent): Below 0.1985 (under S1 and undercut of the Nov 9 low zone) to invalidate the intraday structure.
• Take-Profit: Scale between 0.2145 and 0.2183, with a core target at 0.2145 aligning with prior supply and R1/R2 confluence.
• R:R snapshot (entry 0.2038, TP 0.2145, stop 0.1985): Risk ≈ 0.0053; Reward ≈ 0.0107; R:R ≈ 2.0. If breakout strength appears, partials can trail toward 0.218.

Bottom Line

• The tape shows a maturing base after October’s flush, with price reclaimed above the 10/20-day averages and compressing under 0.211 resistance. Momentum is improving but not overextended, volatility is supportive, and volume is not signaling distribution. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is a pivot-hold and retest of 0.210–0.211 with decent odds of extension into 0.214–0.218 if buyers punch through. Strategy: Buy the dip near the pivot rather than chase into resistance.