SAND at $0.0837: Bearish Overhead Supply After Capitulation—Positioning for a 24h Fade

Market context (multi-timeframe)

Instrument: SAND (The Sandbox)
Current price: $0.0837468
Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-14 → 2026-02-11) + last ~24h hourly candles (2026-02-10 22:00 → 2026-02-11 21:57)

1) Primary trend (Daily)

• Structural trend: Persistent downtrend from mid-November (~$0.18) to early February, with a major capitulation leg on Feb-05 (low ~$0.07748, close ~$0.07868), followed by a weak rebound.
• Lower highs / lower lows: After the January spike (Jan-22 high ~$0.17256), price rolled over into a sequence of lower highs (0.1586 → 0.1483 → 0.1375 → 0.1291 → 0.1231 → 0.1144 → 0.1037 → 0.1006 → 0.0973 → breakdown to 0.0775).
• Implication: Daily structure remains bearish; rebounds tend to be mean-reversion bounces inside a broader downtrend.

2) Volatility & regime shift (Daily)

• Range expansion event: Feb-05 had an outsized daily range (high ~0.0973 → low ~0.0775). That’s classic liquidity sweep / stop-run behavior.
• Post-shock behavior: Feb-06/07 bounced (close ~0.08595 then ~0.08861), but follow-through was muted; subsequent days drifted lower/sideways.
• Implication: After a volatility shock, markets often enter compression; the next directional move often starts after a failed attempt to reclaim key moving averages / prior breakdown levels.

3) Key levels (Daily horizontal S/R)

Using visible pivots and breakdown points:

• Immediate support zone: $0.0805–0.0812 (hourly low cluster + today’s intraday base).
• Major support: $0.0775–0.0787 (Feb-05 capitulation low/close). A break below this likely accelerates.
• Nearest resistance (first sell wall): $0.0854–0.0860 (recent hourly rejection and near the “post-bounce” area).
• Next resistance: $0.0886–0.0892 (Feb-07 close / Feb-09 high).
• Macro resistance / breakdown origin: $0.097–0.103 (Feb-02/04 highs, prior shelf before the dump).

4) Price action (Hourly: last ~24h)

• Trend intraday: Early hours sold off from ~0.0851 down to ~0.08055 (10:00 low area), then bounced.
• Notable event: A sharp wick/impulse around 14:00 up to ~0.08552 but closed back near ~0.0820. That is a strong sign of supply / rejection (buyers couldn’t hold the breakout; sellers absorbed).
• Late session: Gradual recovery into 0.0837–0.0840 but still below the rejection zone.
• Implication: Market is range-bound with bearish overhead supply; rallies into 0.085–0.089 are being sold.

5) Candle/auction reading (what the wicks say)

• Rejection wick at 0.0855 (hourly): Suggests trapped longs and/or active distribution. Often leads to a retest of the lower range.
• Base formation around 0.0808–0.0820: Shows buyers defend, but the bounce lacks strength (no sustained higher-high sequence above 0.0855).

6) Momentum (RSI-style reasoning without exact calculation)

• Daily context after a capitulation is typically oversold → mean-reversion. The rebound to ~0.0886 failed to trend.
• Hourly: momentum improved from the 0.0805 low, but the impulse high was rejected, indicating momentum is not strong enough to flip trend.
• Implication: Momentum favors selling rallies rather than buying breakouts until price can hold above 0.0855/0.0886.

7) Moving-average logic (qualitative)

Given the magnitude of the decline (0.17 → 0.08), price is almost certainly:

• Below medium/long MAs (20D/50D/200D equivalents), meaning trend-following systems remain short-biased.
• Any approach to short-term averages is likely to act as dynamic resistance.

8) Market profile / volume logic

• The biggest recent volume nodes were during the January spike and the Feb-05 dump. Post-dump volume is lower → typical dead-cat bounce conditions.
• Heavy volume down-move often leaves overhead supply; participants who bought higher sell into rallies.

9) Scenario map (next 24h)

Base case (highest probability):

• Price oscillates within $0.0805–0.0855.
• Given rejection at 0.0855, a drift back toward 0.0815–0.0820 is more likely than an immediate clean breakout.

Bearish continuation trigger:

• Clean hourly breakdown and acceptance below $0.0805 → likely quick test of $0.0787, possibly $0.0775.

Bullish invalidation:

• Hourly closes and hold above $0.0855, then reclaim $0.0886–0.0892 → opens room toward $0.092–0.097. But current tape shows sellers defending before that.

10) Probabilistic call (24h)

• Bias: Bearish to neutral (sell-the-rip)
• Expected move: Mild downside / range reversion toward 0.081–0.082 with risk of a liquidity dip toward 0.079–0.0787.

Trade plan (based on current structure)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: dominant daily downtrend + strong intraday rejection near 0.0855 + overhead supply and weak follow-through.

• Optimal open (limit sell on rebound): $0.08520
  Why: near the lower edge of the rejection/supply zone (0.0854–0.0860) while still realistic to tag in a mean-reversion bounce.

• Take-profit / close price: $0.08090
  Why: near the defended base zone; conservative target that aligns with range reversion. (If 0.0805 breaks, extension to 0.0787 becomes plausible, but the requested single close price is set at the first high-probability objective.)

Note: If price instead holds above 0.0855 and especially 0.0886, the short thesis weakens materially (bullish acceptance).