SOL Rejected at 91: Bear-Trap Signs Point to a 24H Pullback Toward 84 Support

Market regime & structure (top-down)

1) Higher-timeframe trend (Daily)

• Major trend since mid‑Jan: Clear downtrend / distribution.
  • Jan 14 close ~146.75 → Feb 1 close ~100.85 → Feb 5 close ~78.19 (capitulation) → current ~86.14.
• Lower highs / lower lows dominate until the Feb 5 washout. Since then, price is attempting a dead‑cat bounce / baselining.
• Key inflection: Feb 5 printed a very large bearish expansion (92 → 77.8 intraday) followed by Feb 6 violent rebound (low ~68.7 → close ~87.5). This is typical of capitulation + short-covering, after which markets often range before deciding.

Implication: The primary trend is still bearish; rallies tend to be sold until proven otherwise (break + acceptance above major resistance).

2) Intermediate structure (last ~2 weeks)

• Range/bounce sequence:
  • Feb 11–12: lows ~78–76.7
  • Feb 13: bounce close ~84.32
  • Feb 14: continuation to close ~88.16
  • Feb 15 (today so far): high ~91.01 then sold back to ~86.14
• This produces a failed push above 90–91 and a close back inside the prior range → bull trap / supply reaction.

Implication: Sellers defended the 90–91 area; odds favor mean reversion down toward mid/lower range before any sustainable breakout.

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Key levels (price action / S&R)

Resistance (supply)

• 90.70–91.05: intraday swing high (Feb 15 07:00–08:00) and today’s rejection point.
• 88.80–89.85: prior intraday support turned resistance (morning consolidation).
• 92.00–93.00: major daily pivot (Feb 4 close ~92) and breakdown zone; would need to reclaim for bullish reversal confirmation.

Support (demand)

• 85.00–85.30: today’s intraday low zone (and psychological 85). First meaningful support.
• 84.20–84.40: Feb 13–14 base area.
• 82.90–83.00: Feb 10 close region.
• 78.30–79.30: Feb 11–12 lows (range floor).

Map: Price is currently below the 88–90 supply band, hovering close to first support (85–86). That’s a weak spot: if 85 breaks, downside can accelerate to ~84.3 then ~83.

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Candles, patterns, and auction logic

Daily candle logic

• Feb 14: strong bullish day (close near highs).
• Feb 15: pushed to ~91 then rejected and closed near 86 (data shows close 86.14 at 21:56Z). That’s a long upper wick / failed continuation day.

Pattern read: After an impulsive up day, a follow-through failure often signals exhaustion and triggers profit-taking → next session often drifts lower or chops downward.

Intraday (Hourly) microstructure

• Uptrend early (88 → 90.6–91) then steady sequence of lower highs from ~10:00 onward.
• Midday breakdown: 12:00–13:00 drop (89.1 → 87.0) = momentum shift.
• Late session: held 85–86 but did not reclaim 88.

Implication: Intraday control shifted to sellers; rallies are likely to be faded near resistance bands.

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Volatility & risk context

True range expansion

• Recent daily ranges are extremely large (e.g., Feb 6: 68.7–89.5). This implies elevated ATR and wider stop requirements.
• With high ATR, price often overshoots levels and then mean-reverts; however trend bias still matters.

Implication for next 24h: Expect wide swings; set entries at supply, not at market, and keep targets realistic.

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Indicator-style conclusions (derived from the series)

(Exact indicator values like RSI/MACD can’t be computed perfectly without full rolling calculations here, but directionally we can infer from price/structure.)

1) Moving averages (trend proxy)

• Price is far below the Jan highs and below the likely 20D/50D averages (given the steep decline from 140s to sub‑90).
• Recent bounce likely still under descending MAs.

Signal: Bearish trend regime; rallies into MA zones tend to be sold.

2) Momentum (RSI-style inference)

• Feb 5 washout likely pushed RSI into oversold; Feb 6–14 bounce relieved it.
• Today’s rejection from 91 suggests momentum is stalling before reaching a full bullish reversal.

Signal: Momentum recovery is fading; short-term pullback risk elevated.

3) Volume (effort vs result)

• Largest volumes occurred during the selloff/capitulation (Feb 5–6) and still heavy on Feb 15 daily volume.
• Heavy volume with failure to hold above 90–91 suggests distribution into strength.

Signal: Supply present; supports a short bias near resistance.

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24-hour price movement forecast (scenario-based)

Base case (higher probability): Bearish mean reversion

• Price likely retests 85.0, and if that breaks, drifts toward 84.3.
• If selling accelerates (risk-off crypto tape), extension toward 83.0 is plausible.

Alternate case: Range hold then bounce

• If 85 holds firmly, price may chop 85–88 and attempt another push toward 88.8–89.8.
• A true bullish continuation would require reclaim + acceptance above ~90.7–91.0. Without that, upside is likely capped.

Bias: Downward / range-to-down, with 90–91 acting as a ceiling.

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Trade plan (decision + optimal entry)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: primary downtrend, rejection from 91, lower-high intraday sequence, supply overhead at 88.8–91.

Optimal open price (limit sell)

• Best risk/reward is to short into a bounce toward resistance rather than at 86.
• Open (Sell) = 88.90
  • This is inside the 88.8–89.8 supply band and below the 91 stop-out zone, giving room for a wick.

Take-profit / close price

• Close (Take Profit) = 84.30
  • Aligns with the Feb 13–14 base and likely first strong demand after 85 breaks.

(If price never retraces to ~88.90, the setup is skipped—chasing shorts at support increases reversal risk.)

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Key invalidation (risk note)

• If SOL reclaims and holds above 91.10–92.00, the rejection thesis fails and shorts become unsafe; that would open room toward 93–95.