SOL at $117: Breakdown After Failed Bounce — High Probability of a 24h Retest Toward $113

Market snapshot (SOL)

• Current price: $117.38
• Context: SOL has been in a multi-month downtrend since early Nov (highs near ~$188) and is now trading near the lower end of the late-Jan range.
• Most recent daily candles:
  • Jan 28 close: ~$125.12
  • Jan 29 close: ~$117.61 (large bearish day)
  • Jan 30 (latest) close/current: ~$117.38 with low ~$113.04 and very high daily volume (~6.92B)

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1) Trend & market structure (Dow Theory / swing structure)

Higher timeframe (daily)

• Sequence since mid-Jan: lower highs + lower lows (145.36→146.75→142.33→143.73→137.99→133.34→125.71→129.38→128.29→127.36→127.05→118.77→127.05→125.12→117.61→117.38).
• Key structure break: The drop below ~125–127 (late-Jan support/previous consolidation) confirms bearish continuation.
• Result: Primary trend is bearish, rallies are more likely to be sold until price reclaims broken supply.

Near-term (intraday from hourly)

• Sharp sell impulse 01:00–02:00 down to ~113.68–112.97 region, then a bounce to ~118.84 at 19:00, followed by rejection back to ~116.82 and settling ~117.38.
• This looks like a dead-cat bounce / corrective retrace after liquidation rather than a clean trend reversal.

Trend conclusion: Bearish bias remains intact; price is consolidating after an impulsive sell-off.

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2) Support / resistance mapping (horizontal + supply/demand)

Immediate supports

• $117.2–$116.8: micro-support (hourly closes around 116.82–117.32)
• $115.5–$114.8: intraday pivot zone (multiple hourly interactions)
• $113.7–$113.0: day’s sell-off base + daily low area

Immediate resistances (supply)

• $118.5–$118.9: intraday bounce high / rejection area
• $120.0–$121.0: psychological + likely minor supply (not hit today but typical reversion target)
• $124.8–$127.0: major broken support turned resistance (late-Jan range). A reclaim would weaken the short thesis; until then it’s an overhead ceiling.

S/R conclusion: Current price sits below multiple resistance layers, with nearest meaningful supply at 118.5–118.9 and then 120–121.

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3) Momentum assessment (price action proxy + RSI logic)

(RSI not explicitly computed from all closes here, but momentum can be inferred from impulse magnitude, follow-through, and retracement behavior.)

• Two consecutive heavy down days (Jan 29–30) indicate strong negative momentum.
• The bounce from ~113 to ~118.8 retraced only part of the sell impulse and then failed—typical of bear-market corrective retraces.
• Lack of sustained higher-high/higher-low formation on hourly suggests momentum recovery is weak.

Momentum conclusion: Bearish momentum dominates; rebound attempts are being sold.

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4) Volatility & range behavior (ATR / expansion-contraction logic)

• Daily range Jan 30: High ~118.62 / Low ~113.04 ≈ $5.58 (~4.8%).
• That’s a range expansion day following another large down day (Jan 29 low ~115.42).
• Range expansion after a breakdown often precedes either:
  1. brief stabilization (sideways) then continuation lower, or
  2. a sharper mean-reversion bounce.
• Given the dominant downtrend and failure near 118.8, the more common path is sideways-to-down with risk of retest of $113.

Volatility conclusion: Expect choppy movement; downside tails remain likely within next 24h.

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5) Volume / capitulation read

• Daily volume on Jan 29 and Jan 30 is elevated, consistent with distribution and/or capitulation.
• True capitulation reversals usually show: huge volume + strong close near highs + follow-through buying. Here, price did not hold the bounce and is closing mid/low region of the day’s range.

Volume conclusion: Heavy activity looks more like sell pressure + forced liquidation, not a confirmed reversal.

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6) Pattern & price-action setups

Breakdown and retest framework

• Former support band $125–$127 broke decisively.
• Price is now consolidating below; typical play is to sell rallies into nearby supply (118.5–121) aiming for retest of lows.

Candlestick logic (daily)

• Jan 29: strong bearish continuation.
• Jan 30: attempted recovery from ~113 to ~118.6, but failed to close near highs → suggests sellers still present overhead.

Pattern conclusion: Favor shorting rebounds rather than buying dips, until a clear base and reclaim occurs.

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24-hour outlook (forecast)

Base case (highest probability):

• Range: $113.0 – $120.5
• Path: mild rebound attempts toward $118.5–$119.5 likely get sold → drift back to $115–$114.5 → possible retest $113 if risk-off accelerates.

Bullish alternative (lower probability):

• A sustained reclaim and hold above $120–$121 could trigger a squeeze toward $123–$124.5.

Bearish continuation (meaningful risk):

• Clean break below $113 opens fast move toward $110 area (round-number + next psychological), though not guaranteed within 24h.

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Trading plan (next 24h)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale summary:

• Multi-timeframe downtrend and breakdown below key supports.
• Rejection after bounce; overhead supply nearby.
• Elevated volatility favors fade-the-rally shorts with defined invalidation.

Optimal open (entry)

• Prefer opening on a rebound into supply rather than at market.
• Open Price (short): $118.70 (near the 118.5–118.9 rejection/supply zone).

Take-profit (close)

• Primary target is retest of the sell-off base.
• Close Price (take profit): $113.60 (front-run the ~$113.0 low for fill probability).

(Risk note for execution: a logical invalidation would be a sustained break above ~$121 on strength; that would weaken the short thesis.)