SOL Teeters at S1: Oversold but Poised for a Liquidity-Sweep Bounce

Summary snapshot (as of 2025-11-08 22:00 UTC)

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Last price: 157.99
• Today’s range: 156.11 – 164.52; Close near the lows (weak finish)
• 24h context: A slow bleed intraday after a small early bounce; modest late-hour stabilization but below key intraday VWAP/MA references.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Clear downtrend since mid-October. Lower highs from 208 → 202 → 198 → 194 → 188 → 162. The Nov 3–4 capitulation (188 → 146.75 low intraday, close 155.40) reset the structure; subsequent bounces have been shallow.
• Micro-structure since the Nov 4 low (146.75):
  • Higher lows: 146.75 (Nov 4) → 155.07 (Nov 6) → 156.11 (Nov 8). Slightly constructive on the downside.
  • Lower highs: 162.57 (Nov 5) → 161.71 (Nov 7) → 164.52 (Nov 8 intraday spike then failed). Net effect: a narrowing wedge/coil between ~156–162, leaning bearish given the broader trend.
• Key levels mapped from recent closes and wicks:
  • Immediate resistance: 160.8–162.6 (hourly supply and daily micro swing), then 165–168 (10DMA region/overhead supply), 171.9 (23.6% Fib retrace from 253.21 → 146.75).
  • Immediate support: 156–155 (recent floor multiple touches), 154.6 (Classic S1), 151.1 (S2), 150 round number, 147–148 (Nov 4 flush zone), 146.75 (swing low).
• Candlesticks:
  • Today: Red candle closing near low (no reversal signature). Yesterday was a green candle that failed to follow through; today’s rejection reinforces supply above 162.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA(20) ≈ 181.35 (calc from the last 20 closes). Price is ~13% below; slope is down. Mean-reversion magnet sits ~23 higher.
• SMA(10) ≈ 170.49; price below and slope down.
• 50-day SMA (approx) firmly above price and declining (given weeks spent 200–220 before the October break). Bearish MA stack: Price < 10SMA < 20SMA < 50SMA.
• EMAs (12/26) and MACD below zero with negative histogram in a downtrend configuration; any bounce likely corrective until EMAs flatten and cross back up.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 23 (computed). Deeply oversold, increasing probability of a short-term bounce/mean reversion, but in strong trends RSI can stay sub-30 longer than expected.
• Stochastic daily likely <20; intraday stoch crosses are appearing but weak near resistance.
• 4H/1H momentum: intraday lows around 156 have not produced decisive bullish divergence yet; minor positive divergence potential appears on the very short TFs, but needs confirmation (>159.5–160 reclaim).

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 11.9. Expect ±$12 typical one-day range. From 158, a range to 146–170 is statistically plausible.
• Bollinger Bands(20): With mid-band ~SMA20 ≈ 181.35 and expanded volatility post-crash, price is hugging the lower band. This favors either: (a) trend continuation push to sweep 154/151; or (b) snapback to the 10DMA/upper lower-band channel (160–166). Mean-reversion target zone for a reflexive bounce is 160.8–165.5.

5. Volume and flow

• Distribution characteristic since mid-Oct: higher volume on down legs (Oct 10, Nov 3–4) and lighter on bounces → OBV bias down. No capitulation spike matching a durable bottom yet, although Nov 3–4 was significant.
• Today’s intraday volumes failed to expand on attempts above 162; supply remains active there.

6. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud above price and thick. Bearish configuration. Tenkan likely ~low 170s, Kijun ~upper 190s/low 200s. Any bounce to Tenkan (≈170) would still be corrective.

7. Fibonacci structure

• Major swing: Sep 18 high 253.21 → Nov 4 low 146.75. Key retraces:
  • 23.6% = 171.88
  • 38.2% = 187.41
  • 50% = 199.98
  • 61.8% = 212.54 Price has not yet reclaimed even the 23.6% line → weak post-selloff bounce so far.
• Short swing (today): 164.52 → 156.11. Retraces: 50% ≈ 160.32; 61.8% ≈ 161.38. The market closed below 50% retrace, consistent with intraday weakness. Any bounce faces immediate fib resistance ~160.3–161.4.

8. Pivots (Classic) using 11/08 H/L/C = 164.52/156.11/157.99

• Pivot P ≈ 159.54
• R1 ≈ 163.00; R2 ≈ 167.95
• S1 ≈ 154.56; S2 ≈ 151.13 These align with the spot orderflow map: buy interest near S1/S2, supply into R1.

9. Channel and pattern reads

• Descending channel from mid-Oct. We are near the lower boundary (155–156). The typical behavior: brief undercut of the lower rail (liquidity sweep) followed by a reflex to the mid-channel (≈165). Failure to bounce from 154–151 would likely extend to 147–148.
• Micro coil: 156–162 compression over the last 48–72 hours. Breaks typically travel a full measured move of the prior width (~$6), matching ATR mechanics.

10. Intraday levels and VWAP

• 11/08 hourly sequence: lower highs; VWAP proxy around 160–161 (approx). Close under VWAP reflects seller control. A first sign of intent would be reclaiming 159.5–160.3; stronger confirmation above 161.4.

11. Risk framing and scenario analysis (24h horizon)

• Base case (55%): Liquidity sweep sub-156 into S1 (154.6) and potentially toward 152–151 (S2), followed by a reflexive bounce to 160–163 as shorts cover and mean reversion engages. This fits oversold RSI + proximity to pivot supports + channel behavior.
• Bear extension (20%): Momentum continuation straight through 151; tag 147–148 area (near Nov 4 low region), then late recovery back to ~153–155. Requires sustained sell volume and risk-off tape. Invalidation for bounce traders is a firm H1 close <150.
• Immediate bounce fade (25%): Early pop to 160–161 (50–61.8% of today’s drop), rejected at R1/161.4, then a later-day drift back to 155–156. Net choppy day but still range-bound.

12. Confluence and synthesis

• Bullish for a tactical bounce: RSI(14) ≈ 23 oversold; channel lower boundary; pivot S1/S2 confluence at 154.6/151.1; ATR provides room for a $6–$8 bounce.
• Bearish for the broader trend: Price well below 10/20/50 SMAs; MACD negative; failed follow-through above 162; OBV trending down; Ichimoku bearish.
• Net takeaway: Trend is down, but location is favorable for a contrarian, tightly-risked long if we can buy the liquidity sweep (154–152) and aim to sell into 160–163 within 24 hours. Execution and risk control are critical.

13. Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Buy the dip into S1/S2; sell into R1/overhead supply.
• Optimal entry zone: 154.6 (pivot S1) ± 0.4. If very weak liquidity, scale down to 153.0–151.5 (S2) in small increments.
• Target (take-profit): 162.5–163.0 (R1 confluence and intraday supply). I will set TP at 162.9 to capture the upper edge of the R1 zone while below heavy resistance at 165.
• Invalidation/Stop (not part of the order fields but crucial): H1 close <149 or hard stop 149.2 to protect against a retest of 146.8. That implies ~3.5–5.0 downside risk from a 154–155 entry vs ~7–8 upside to target.
• Confirmation triggers (if waiting for strength): reclaim 159.5 (daily pivot) and then 160.3 (50% of today’s drop); momentum adds above 161.4.

14. Time and execution considerations

• Weekend liquidity can be thin; expect wicks. Favor limit orders near predefined levels (S1/S2) and partial scaling. Do not chase green candles into 161–163—this is supply.
• If price jumps immediately above 161.4 without tagging the entry, consider skipping rather than forcing a worse R:R, or switch to a fade setup only if broader market turns risk-off (not covered here).

15. Contingency

• If breakdown accelerates and 150 snaps with volume, abort the long plan and reassess for a momentum short to 147 with a bounce cover. That is secondary to the current plan but consistent with the bearish trend if support collapses.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Expect a stop-sweep below 156 into 154–152, then a reflex bounce to 160–163. Tactical long favored at support with tight risk; broader trend remains bearish, so profits should be taken into resistance rather than held.