SOL
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Prediction
BEARISH
Target
$128.6
Estimated
Model
trdz-T5k
Date
2025-12-05
22:00
Analyzed
Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI
SOL at the cliff: Sell the bounce into 135, aim for a weekend flush to 128.6
Overview and bias
- Instrument: Solana (SOL)
- Current price: $132.32 (as of 2025-12-05 21:51 UTC)
- 24h view: Short-term bounce risk exists, but dominant signals favor further downside toward the $128–$130 support zone. My base case anticipates an early, shallow recovery attempt that fails below $136, followed by continuation lower into prior liquidity and support.
Step-by-step, multi-technique analysis
- Market structure (multi-timeframe)
- Higher time frame (Daily, Sep→Dec): Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from mid‑Sept highs (> $240) to today. Rallies (e.g., 12/01–12/03) have been retracements within a broader downtrend.
- Intermediate pivots: 11/11 swing high ~171.6, 12/01 swing low $126.71, 12/03 relief rally peak $145.73, followed by 12/04–12/05 two-day selloff back toward the lower third of the 11/21–12/05 range. Structure remains bearish below $145–$147.
- Intraday (Hourly, last 24–36h): Breakdown from the overnight high ~140.35, accelerating to an intraday low ~131.17, with bounces failing to reclaim 133–134. Supply is active on upticks.
- Trend diagnostics (moving averages)
- 20D SMA (approx): ~137–138. Price is below and slope has turned down after the 12/03 pop—bearish.
- 50D SMA: Well above (~>170), sharply downward sloping—reinforces macro downtrend.
- Short-term EMAs (5D vs 20D): The 5D has rolled over and is crossing back below the 20D after the 12/03 spike—typical of failed mean-reversion rallies in downtrends.
- Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stoch)
- Daily RSI(14): Likely mid- to high-40s earlier this week, now slipping toward/below 40 after two consecutive down days—bearish momentum rebuilding. Not deeply oversold yet on daily, leaving room to the downside before strong mean-reversion triggers.
- Hourly RSI: Pressed near/under 30 during the flush to 131. A minor bounce is possible, but trend can keep intraday RSI pinned for extended periods.
- Daily MACD: Histogram peaked and is rolling down; a bear cross or widening negative histogram is likely if price remains below the 20D SMA—supports further downside.
- Stochastic: Oversold on intraday; can stay oversold in trends. Any stochastic uptick likely fades under $136 resistance.
- Volatility (ATR, Bollinger Bands)
- Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~7–9. Current day’s true range fits within that. This allows for a move to $128–$129 in a single session without unusual volatility.
- Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~137–138; lower band likely ~125–127. Price is trading below the mid, headed toward the lower band, consistent with trend continuation.
- Fibonacci mapping and confluence
- Daily swing (11/11 ~171.6 high → 12/01 $126.71 low):
- 38.2%: ~143.9; 50%: ~149.2; 61.8%: ~154.5.
- The 12/03 high at $145.73 effectively tagged the 38.2% and rejected—textbook bearish retracement.
- Short swing (12/01 $126.71 → 12/03 $145.73): Range 19.02.
- 50%: 136.22; 61.8%: 134.94; 78.6%: 131.34.
- Price has broken below 61.8% and is hovering near the 78.6% ($131.3). Losing 78.6% often leads to a full retrace toward the origin (~$126.7) before the next larger decision point. Confluence: 78.6% aligns with intraday low $131.17.
- Intraday downswing (12/05 high ~140.35 → low ~131.17): Range 9.18.
- 38.2% retrace: ~134.68; 50%: ~135.76; 61.8%: ~136.85.
- Ideal short “sell-the-bounce” zone sits ~$134.7–$136.9. Until price reclaims that pocket, bounces are countertrend and fadeable.
- Support/Resistance and order blocks
- Resistance layers: 134.7–136.9 (intraday fib pocket), 138–140 (20D SMA/mid-BB and recent close zone), 143–146 (daily resistance and 38.2% of the larger swing).
- Support layers: 131.2–132.0 (intraday 78.6% + today’s low zone), 130.7 (11/23 close), 128.5 (11/21 close), 126.7 (12/01 low), 123.3 (12/01 intraday low).
- Expect liquidity sweeps below 131 and 130, with first high-probability basing attempts near 128.5–127.2.
- Volume, OBV, and profile
- Daily: Rising volume on down days (12/04–12/05) vs 12/03 up day suggests distribution after the relief rally.
- Intraday: Heavy 16:00 UTC hour sell volume coincided with the largest down candle; subsequent hours show weak demand. OBV slope turning down—confirms supply dominance.
- Volume profile (qualitative): High-volume node around 138–140 (now overhead resistance) and developing acceptance lower near 130–132. Price migration toward the lower node implies acceptance of lower value and raises odds of a further test into 128–127 where prior activity clustered.
- Ichimoku (qualitative)
- Price is below Conversion and Base lines and below cloud. Cloud likely red and above price. Classic bearish state—rallies into the Kijun/Cloud are sells unless a strong reversal develops (no evidence yet).
- Candlestick/price action read
- 12/03 printed a strong up candle that failed to follow through; 12/04 produced a selloff candle; 12/05 undercuts and closes weak. The sequence resembles a bull trap/failed breakout and continuation lower.
- On the hourly, several small-bodied candles near 132–133 after the capitulatory leg imply a pause within a down move rather than a reversal (no decisive bullish engulfing or reversal structure).
- Pivot points (12/04 reference: H 146.72, L 138.07, C 139.01)
- Pivot P ≈ 141.27; S1 ≈ 135.82; S2 ≈ 132.62; S3 ≈ 127.17; R1 ≈ 144.47; R2 ≈ 149.92.
- Price is below S2 (~132.62), and the next classical target is S3 (~127.17), aligning with the 12/01 low region.
- Elliott-style micro count (heuristic)
- A relief rally (A) from 126.7 to 145.7, B pullback to ~139 on 12/04, and a failed C continuation attempt early 12/05 that rolled over into a new impulsive leg lower (i) → (ii) → (iii) in progress. Wave (iii) targets typically extend 1.272–1.618 of the prior leg—in confluence with $128–$126 area from other tools.
- Wyckoff lens
- 12/03 looks like Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) relative to the 140–146 zone; 12/04 Sign of Weakness (SoW) through 139–138; 12/05 Lower high/LPSY behavior intraday near 133–134. Next phase usually is Markdown toward the prior support shelf (128–127), with potential spring below 126 if momentum accelerates.
- Risk, invalidation, and scenario planning (next 24h)
- Base case (55%): Early bounce stalls 134.5–135.8 (fib 38–50% of intraday downswing), then continuation lower to 129–130 with a liquidity probe toward 128.6. Close near 129–131.
- Bear extension (25%): Weak or no bounce; breakdown below 131 leads to swift test of 128.6, overshoot to 127.2 (pivot S3) and possible tag of 126.7. Rebound late session to ~129–130.
- Bull surprise (20%): Strong reclaim above 136.9 and daily close above 138 flips momentum short term; squeeze toward 140–143 possible. This would threaten the short thesis; above ~140.3–141.0, bears lose tactical control.
- Execution logic
- Short entries are favored into resistance: the 134.7–136.9 pocket offers best expectancy. Given current price near 132, a conservative approach is to either:
- Place a limit sell in the 134.5–135.0 zone to “sell the rip,” or
- Use a market/stop entry on breakdown through 131.0 if bounce does not materialize.
- Profit target: First take-profit near $128.6 (confluence: prior support + pre‑S3), with potential runner to $127.2 if momentum persists. For the purposes of a single target, $128.6 balances probability and reward.
- Invalidation: A sustained reclaim and hourly close above ~136.9, or a daily close back above ~140.3–141.0, would materially weaken the short setup.
- Summary of signals
- Trend: Bearish (daily and hourly)
- Momentum: Turning/firmly bearish (RSI, MACD)
- Volatility: Adequate to reach $128–$129 within a session
- Key levels: Resistance 134.7–136.9 and 138–140; Supports 131.2, 130.7, 128.5, 127.2, 126.7
- Confluence: Fibonacci (multiple frames), pivots (S2→S3), moving averages, volume profile, Wyckoff
24-hour price path expectation
- Likely path: Attempted bounce to 133.5–135.5 early → rejection → slide to 129–130 → spike low toward 128.6 before stabilizing. Risk of deeper extension to 127.2 if liquidity runs accelerate. A reclaim above 136.9 would defer downside and open 138–140.
Actionable takeaway
- Bias: Sell the bounce. The optimal trade is a short entry into 134.5–135.0 with a take-profit at 128.6. If bounce fails to occur, a breakdown sell below 131 is the contingency (not encoded in the single-price output).