Comprehensive Technical Analysis: Solana (SOL) — June 12, 2025

1. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend (Daily): Reviewing the three months of daily data, SOL showed a robust rally in mid-April to May, reaching highs near $184.71 (May 13). Following this, a sharp sell-off took it down into the $150–$160 range. The volatility since has been considerable. The most recent pivot was upward from the $144–$147 region (early June), followed by a failed breakout above $168, then a lot of chop and choppy volume in the $152–$165 range. This signals a market in consolidation after a significant uptrend and an aggressive sell-off; overall, the daily structure is shifting neutral–bearish short-term, with former strong support at $160 now acting as resistance.

• Medium-Term Trend (4H): The four-hour chart details a downtrend over the last 72 hours. After testing resistance at $165 (June 10–11), SOL made successively lower highs and lower lows, culminating in today's rapid slide from $160+ to a local low of $152.90. The inability to reclaim the $160 zone during today's attempted bounce points to strengthened selling pressure.

• Short-Term Trend (1H): Hourly data display a break from the consolidation range—SOL hovered $158–$160 between 09:00–17:00, before an acceleration in volume and a sharp move down in the 19:00–20:58 period. The move from $157–$154–$152 in the last three hours is decisive and on high volume, usually a sign of capitulation or the start of a new leg down.

2. Volume Profile & Price Action

• Volume: Throughout the day, volume surged during downward moves (notably around the 19:00–21:00 slot). This implies sellers remain dominant. The most recent push lower was accompanied by a spike in traded volume, confirming supply overwhelming demand.
• Support Levels: $152 (present level) is intraday support and also coincides with a prior bounce zone (e.g., June 1–4). Next major daily support lies near $147–$150 (see: June 6–8 lows), and major psychological/structural support at $144.
• Resistance Zones: Immediate resistance sits at $155, then $157–$160, with strong supply evident each time price enters that area over the last 24 hours.

3. Candlestick & Chart Patterns

• Candlesticks: Today’s close is a long-bodied red bar; last few hourly candles display little lower-wick (buyers unable to defend even intraday), suggesting further downside is likely before support buyers reappear.
• Microstructure: The steep slide and absence of pronounced reversal wicks or high-close bullish candles is typical of markets entering an oversold condition but not yet reaching ‘capitulation’ or reversal territory.

4. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Estimated to be nearing oversold territory (typically below 30) on the 1H and possibly the 4H, given the velocity and magnitude of the decline. While this condition often precedes bounces, markets can remain oversold for extended periods in strong downtrends.
• MACD: Given declining price and the failed retest of prior support/resistance, MACD is likely flashing a bearish crossover on the 4H and perhaps beginning plateauing but not yet reversing on the hourly.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (SMA/EMA 20, 50): Recent price is well under both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 1H and 4H, with the 20- and 50-MA likely rolling over and acting as dynamic resistance ($155–$157). Confluence of moving average resistance above current price is bearish.
• Daily 200-MA: Remains well below current price, suggesting long-term trend intact, but short-term and swing traders will dominate during the next 24–48 hours.

6. Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions

• If plotting the local range ($144 low, $168 high), current price is breaking below the 61.8% retracement (~$154), signaling strong selling and raising the likelihood of a test toward $150 or even $147 (the 78.6% and full retracement levels).

7. Order Book & Market Sentiment (Inferred)

• Recent high-volume sell candles correspond to stops being triggered and panic selling among weak longs as $155 and $154 levels failed. This momentum will likely persist until a cluster of limit buy orders or major support ($147–$150) is encountered.

8. Elliott Wave Structure (Subjective)

• The recent move may correspond to a C wave of an ABC correction; if so, price might extend a final push to the lower $147–$150 region before a reversal rally is probable.

9. Volatility/ATR Analysis

• The Average True Range (ATR) over the last 14 days has increased, indicating wide daily swings ($5–$10 range). This means the downside could overshoot before any meaningful bounce.

10. Summary Table

Indicator	Current Signal
Momentum	Bearish
Oscillators	Oversold/Weak
Chart Pattern	Breakdown
Volume	Sell-off
Support	$152, $150, $147
Resistance	$155, $160

11. Prediction: Next 24 Hours

• Bias: Short-term bearish continues until $150 or potentially $147 is retested. Would not preclude a minor oversold rally/consolidation, but odds favor at least one more leg down before a sustainable bounce.
• Scenario: Expect a possible brief bounce off the $152–$153 area, but selling pressure and momentum suggest the $150 zone will be tested, with a chance of wicking into $147. If $147 holds, look for a rebound. Any close above $155 would invalidate the near-term bearish view.

12. Trade Plan

• Position: Sell (Short Position)
• Entry (Open Price): $152.90 (current price), anywhere in the $153 region if a small bounce occurs
• Target (Close Price): $147.30 (first key support); a trailing stop can be set above $155 to manage risk. Consider partial take-profit at $150 if order flow slows on the descent.
• Stop-loss: $155.25 (just above recent intraday resistance, minimizes risk in event of a short squeeze or sharp bounce).

13. Rationale

• Momentum is to the downside, powered by significant selling volume and a breakdown of intermediate support. Given the lack of bullish reversal signals and current price action, risk/reward supports short entry if $155 is not reclaimed quickly. Downside volatility is likely to persist near multi-session support levels.

---

Final Recommendation: Initiate a short position at the current price ($152.90) with a target zone of $147.30 for the next 24 hours. If bounce above $155 occurs, cut the position promptly.

Note: Crypto markets are volatile and positions should be managed with tight stops and close monitoring.