SOL Explodes Out of a Multi-Week Base: Breakout Retest Setup Targeting the Mid-$90s

1) Multi-timeframe structure (Daily → Hourly)

Current price: $89.8921 (as of 2026-02-25 21:58 UTC)

Daily trend (swing context)

• From mid-Jan (~$146.75 close on 2026-01-14) to early Feb lows (~$78.19 close on 2026-02-05) SOL underwent a major selloff (~-46%).
• After the capitulation day (02-05) there was a sharp mean-reversion bounce (02-06 close $87.46) and then a range/basing attempt mostly between ~$78–$88 through 02-24.
• Today (02-25) printed a large bullish daily candle: Open ~$79.02, High ~$91.05, Low ~$78.86, Close ~$89.89.
  • That’s a bullish expansion day with a close near the high and a clear break above the prior range ceiling (~$88–$89).
  • Daily volume today is elevated vs the prior few sessions (5.47B vs ~2.0–4.9B recently), consistent with a breakout attempt rather than a thin bounce.

Implication: Daily structure shifts from “base/range” to potential trend reversal leg (at least tactical), but price is now near first major resistance.

Hourly trend (execution context)

• Hourly shows a clean intraday trend: steady grind from ~$79–$83 early hours, then impulse through $85 → $87.5 → $88.8 → $90–$91.
• The last hours: price pushed to $91.05 and then is consolidating around $89.9–$90.1.

Implication: Short-term momentum remains bullish, but the market is digesting the impulse; risk of a pullback to retest breakout levels is non-trivial.

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2) Key levels (Support/Resistance, pivots, and structure)

Major supports

• $88.0–$89.0: prior range ceiling / breakout zone; also a “value area” from recent highs pre-break.
• $85.5–$86.7: strong intraday consolidation + step level before acceleration.
• $82.5–$83.8: earlier day balance area.
• $78.8–$79.5: today’s launchpad + yesterday area; also close to recent swing lows zone.

Major resistances / supply zones

• $91.0–$92.0: today’s high + psychological round resistance; likely first profit-taking area.
• $96.5–$100.9: prior breakdown region from early Feb (02-01 close ~100.85; 02-03 close ~97.56). This zone often acts as overhead supply.

Pivot-style framing (classic daily pivots from today’s OHLC)

Using today’s daily OHLC approx: H=91.05, L=78.86, C=89.89

• Pivot P ≈ (91.05+78.86+89.89)/3 ≈ $86.60
• R1 ≈ 2P−L ≈ $94.34
• S1 ≈ 2P−H ≈ $82.15

Implication: Price is currently well above pivot (bullish bias). Next pivot-derived resistance aligns around mid-$94s.

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3) Candlestick & price action signals

Daily candle read

• Today resembles a bullish marubozu/strong body (close near the high) after a basing period: classic range expansion + close strong.
• This often leads to follow-through the next session, but many breakouts also retest the breakout level (here, ~$88–$89).

Breakout/retest logic

• Breakouts that hold above the former ceiling ($88–$89) tend to continue toward the next resistance ($94–$96).
• Failure to hold above ~$88 would signal a bull trap back into the range.

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4) Momentum indicators (inference from series)

(Exact indicator values require full computation; below is inference consistent with the observed sequence and typical indicator behavior.)

RSI (14)

• After the selloff to $78, RSI would have been depressed; the multi-day basing and then today’s vertical move likely pushed RSI toward bullish/overbought territory on the hourly, and neutral-to-bullish on daily.
• Interpretation: upside momentum is strong; however, short-term overbought conditions increase probability of a pullback/retest rather than straight-line continuation.

MACD (daily)

• The basing phase after capitulation typically compresses MACD histogram; today’s impulse likely triggers a bullish momentum inflection (histogram rising, possible signal-line cross soon).
• Interpretation: supports a 24h bullish bias, especially if price holds >$88.

Rate of Change / Momentum burst

• 24h move from ~79 to ~90 is large (+~14%). Such bursts often lead to continuation but with volatility.

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5) Volatility & risk (ATR / range behavior)

• Today’s daily range: ~$12.19 (91.05−78.86), extremely large vs recent days.
• This implies high ATR conditions; stop placement and position sizing must account for wide swings.

Implication for next 24h: Expect two-way volatility. Even with a bullish bias, a $2–$5 intraday retracement is plausible.

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6) Volume / participation

• Elevated daily volume on an up-break indicates real participation.
• Hourly volumes increased during the impulse phases (notably around the $85→$88 and $88→$91 legs), consistent with trend day behavior.

Implication: increases probability that the breakout is not purely noise; still, late buyers may take profit near $91–$92.

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7) Market structure patterns (range → breakout)

• Range: 02-06 through 02-24 mostly compressed between ~78 and ~88.
• Trigger: 02-25 breaks above the range top and closes near highs.

Classic measured-move concept:

• Range height ≈ 88 − 78 = $10.
• Breakout level ≈ $88.
• Measured target ≈ 88 + 10 = $98.

Implication: Over a horizon longer than 24h, $98 is a reasonable technical objective. Over the next 24h, the market may aim first for $92–$94 (near R1/pivot resistance) and then potentially toward $96 if momentum persists.

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8) 24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): bullish continuation with retest

• Likely path: pullback to $88.5–$89.0 (retest) → buyers defend → push back to $91.0 → attempt extension toward $93.5–$94.5.
• Rationale: strong breakout day + typical retest mechanics + pivot resistance overhead.

Alternative: deeper pullback (still bullish if it holds structure)

• Dip to $86.7–$87.5 (near pivot / prior step) then rebound. This would be normal in high ATR.

Bearish invalidation scenario

• Sustained trade below $88 and especially acceptance back into the prior range, followed by a slide toward $85.5.

Directional call (next 24h): Moderately bullish, with volatility and a preference to buy pullbacks rather than chase.

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9) Trade plan (entry optimization)

Given current price ($89.89) is near the top of the impulse day and just below resistance ($91):

• Chasing here has poorer R:R.
• Optimal professional approach is limit entry on retest of breakout support.

Optimal open (limit) for a Long

• Open Price (Buy limit): $88.90
  • Rationale: sits inside the $88–$89 breakout/retest zone, improves R:R, and aligns with prior range top.

Take-profit / close price (24h objective)

• Close Price (Take Profit): $94.40
  • Rationale: aligns closely with R1 (~$94.34) and is a realistic 24h extension target under high momentum.

(Risk note: In real execution you would also define a stop; a structure-based invalidation would be below ~$86.7 or below $88 depending on aggressiveness. You didn’t ask for stop, so not included in the required fields.)

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Conclusion

The chart shows a range breakout backed by strong volume and a decisive close, favoring continued upside over the next 24 hours. Best edge is to buy the retest near the breakout zone rather than chase the post-impulse price.