SOL

Prediction

BEARISH

Target

$100.8

Estimated

Model

trdz-T52k

Date

2026-01-31

22:00

Analyzed

Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI

SOL Breakdown After High-Volume Flush: Selling the Bounce Toward $109 for a Retest of $101–$100

Market Snapshot (SOL)

Current price: $103.38
Timeframe provided: Daily candles (2025-11-03 → 2026-01-31) + intraday hourly (last ~24h)
Regime: Strong bearish trend with a fresh volatility expansion / breakdown in the last session.

1) Multi-timeframe Trend & Structure

Daily structure (macro swing)

SOL peaked near $188.7 (Nov 3) and has since made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Key breakdown legs:
- Nov: 187 → ~128 (major markdown)
- Dec: choppy consolidation ~120–145 (distribution / weak rebound)
- Jan: rally to ~148.2 (Jan 14) then rollover and sustained selloff.
Most recent daily candle (Jan 31): Open ~117.37, High ~118.61, Low ~100.56, Close ~103.38.
- This is a large bearish range expansion candle and closes near the lows → capitulation-like behavior, and importantly, a structural break beneath the prior support band.

Hourly structure (micro swing)

From ~07:00 onward, price transitions from a slow drift to a sharp sell cascade:
- ~118 → ~115 (break)
- ~115 → ~109 (acceleration)
- ~109 → ~106 (continuation)
- ~106 → ~101–102 (capitulation push)
- late bounce to ~103.47
This is a classic breakdown → forced liquidation → reflex bounce sequence.
The bounce is modest relative to the impulse (101 → 103.5 vs 118 → 101), suggesting bear trend control remains intact.

Conclusion (trend): Daily and hourly trends are bearish; the latest move confirms a fresh bearish impulse leg.

2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Action)

Near-term resistance (supply zones)

Derived from breakdown levels and likely retest areas:

$105.8–$106.5: hourly breakdown area (16:00–17:00 region) + psychological/round proximity.
$108.6–$109.6: major intraday pivot where price briefly based (14:00–16:00) before failing.
$113.7–$116.6: earlier session support (12:00–13:00) that broke; now becomes overhead supply.
$117.3–$118.6: prior day “ceiling” and session high; very strong resistance.

Near-term support (demand zones)

$101.6–$102.0: multiple hourly closes; short-term balance.
$100.6–$100.8: session low area; first major support.
Below $100: next supports are not visible in provided data (psychological $100, then potential vacuum).

Key observation: Price is currently below multiple former supports—this typically increases the probability of bearish retests rather than immediate recovery.

3) Volatility & Range Expansion (ATR logic)

The last daily candle range is roughly $118.61 - $100.56 ≈ $18.05 (~15–18%).
That’s much larger than most recent daily ranges in January.
Volatility expansion after a downtrend often signals either:
1. start of a new bearish leg (continuation), or
2. sell climax followed by a multi-day mean reversion.

Given the close is still near the lows and hourly recovery is weak, probability leans to continuation / heavy overhead supply, with bounces being sold.

4) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

No explicit indicator values are provided, but we can infer:

A one-day drop from ~117 to ~103 with a low near ~100 strongly implies RSI is likely oversold on intraday, potentially approaching oversold on daily.
Oversold does not mean “buy”; in strong downtrends, oversold frequently leads to bear-market rallies that get sold at resistance.
Momentum profile suggests:
- Short-term: oversold bounce possible
- Trend context: bounce likely corrective, not reversal, unless price reclaims key breakdown levels (109/116/118).

5) Moving Average & Trend-Following Read

With the daily trend from ~148 (mid-Jan) to ~103 now:

Price is almost certainly below key moving averages (20D/50D) and they are likely turning down.
Trend-following systems (MA cross / slope) would remain short / risk-off.

6) Volume & Participation

Daily volume on Jan 31: 9.15B, very high relative to many prior days.
Hourly volume spikes coincide with the breakdown (notably around 08:00, 14:00, 17:00, 18:00).

Interpretation:

High volume into a sharp down day = distribution and forced selling.
For a bullish reversal signal, you typically want:
- capitulation then strong reclaim of broken supports with follow-through. We do not see that reclaim yet (still far below 109/116/118).

7) Pattern & Market Psychology

Breakdown from a support shelf

The market held ~117–127 recently (Jan 21–28 area).
Jan 29–31 broke beneath and accelerated → indicates support failure.

Bear flag / dead-cat-bounce setup (intraday)

The impulsive selloff (118 → 101) followed by a small bounce (101 → 103.5) fits an early bear-flag template.
Typical next step: a retest of resistance (105–109), failure, then another push toward lows.

8) 24h Forecast (Path of Most Likely Price Action)

Base case (higher probability):

Corrective bounce attempts into $106–$109, then sellers defend.
Price drifts back toward $102 → $100.6, with risk of a sub-$100 wick if risk-off resumes.

Alternative bullish case (lower probability):

If SOL reclaims and holds above $109.6 and builds acceptance, then next magnet becomes $113.8–$116.6 (broken support).
This would require strong bid continuation; not supported by current structure.

Bear continuation case (tail risk but real):

Failure to reclaim even $106 and a fast break below $100.6 could open a momentum extension toward the mid/high-$90s.

Net directional bias (next 24h): bearish-to-neutral with selling into rallies.

9) Trade Decision (Buy vs Sell)

Given:

Clear daily downtrend
Fresh breakdown with heavy volume
Bounce is currently weak and sitting beneath stacked resistance

Decision: Sell (Short Position) — preferably on a rebound into resistance rather than chasing the lows.

10) Optimal Execution Levels (using observed S/R)

Open (short entry)

Optimal is a limit short on retest of first meaningful supply.
Primary open price: $108.90 (inside the $108.6–$109.6 supply zone)
- Rationale: this zone is a prior breakdown/pivot and should attract sellers; better R:R than shorting $103.

Close (take profit)

Primary close price: $100.80
- Rationale: aligns with session low area ($100.56–$100.83). Expect buyers to defend / short-covering to appear there.

(Risk note for real trading: invalidation would be acceptance above ~116.6 or at minimum a firm reclaim of 109.6; but you didn’t request a stop level.)

24h directional call

Expect range ~ $100.5–$109 with bias to revisit $101–$100.5 after any bounce.
Probability-weighted outcome favors lower lows or a retest of the lows rather than immediate recovery back above $115+.