SOL: Sell the Bounce into 126.6 — Targeting a Liquidity Sweep to 123.9 Within 24 Hours

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Use your own judgment and risk controls; consider consulting a licensed advisor. I provide an analytical view and a trade plan with probabilistic outcomes, not guarantees.

1. Top‑Down Market Structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily, last ~90 days): SOL has been in a persistent downtrend since late September (230s) with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Notable acceleration down in mid-Nov to mid-Dec culminating in the 12/18 low at 119.57. The subsequent bounce to mid‑120s remains below all key moving averages, preserving bearish structure.
• Intermediate structure (Daily, December): Lower highs since the 12/04 swing (146.7) → 12/09 (144.7) → 12/10 (142.4) → 12/12 (139.99) → 12/16 (129.95). Lows: 12/01 (123.31) → 12/17 (123.12) → 12/18 (117.32 intraday, close 119.57). Current price 125.03 sits in a base‑building zone but below the 20‑DMA, maintaining downside bias.
• Intraday (Hourly, last 24h): Session peaked 127.8–128.4 (14:00–15:00 UTC), then rolled over to 124.43 at 20:00, rebounding marginally to ~125.03. Price is below intraday VWAP and under short‑term EMAs, suggesting sellers control rallies.

2. Key Levels (Confluence)

• Supports: 124.4–125.0 (intraday pivot shelf), 123.3 (12/01 low), 122.5 (pivot S2 calc), 119.6 (12/18 cycle low).
• Resistances: 126.5–127.1 (50% retrace of 12/01→12/18 and daily pivot R1), 127.8–128.4 (intraday rejection zone), 129.2–129.5 (12/16 area), 133 (late Nov/early Dec supply), 136–139 (band of prior distribution).

3. Moving Averages (Daily)

• 20‑DMA: ~132 (falling). Price at 125 trades below the 20‑DMA, consistent with a bearish regime and mean‑reversion cap near 132.
• 50‑DMA: likely mid‑150s (falling), 200‑DMA much higher. Both well above price → macro downtrend intact; rallies into MAs are sell zones.

4. RSI (14)

• Daily RSI likely in the low‑to‑mid 40s after rebounding from oversold on 12/18. This is a bearish‑neutral reading, consistent with rallies failing near resistance.
• Hourly RSI shows failed momentum at 127.8–128.4 and settling near neutral, allowing room for a push down to re‑test support without being oversold.

5. MACD (Daily)

• MACD histogram has likely been negative but contracting after 12/18, showing loss of downside momentum but no confirmed bullish crossover. This favors selling strength rather than chasing lows.

6. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• Basis (~20‑DMA) ~132, lower band near ~119–120. Price bounced from the lower band and is mid‑band to lower‑band. Typical behavior in a downtrend: tag/bounce/fail under the basis. Cap near 132 remains the mean‑reversion ceiling; sub‑basis price action favors fades.

7. Ichimoku (Daily/Hourly)

• Daily: Price below cloud; conversion line below base; bearish configuration. Cloud above aligns with 130–135 resistance band.
• Hourly: Price under cloud after rejection; cloud top aligns with 126.5–127.5, matching fib and pivot resistance. Confluence supports shorting bounces.

8. Fibonacci Mapping

• Swing 12/01 high 133.56 → 12/18 low 119.57:
  • 38.2%: 124.85 (current price oscillates around/just under this level)
  • 50%: 126.56 (precise intraday stall near 126.6–127.1)
  • 61.8%: 128.28 (intraday 127.8–128.4 rejection zone)
• The 14–15 UTC rally probed the 61.8% pocket and failed—classic sell zone in a downtrend. Expect reversion toward 124.8/124.2 and potentially 123.3 if momentum persists.

9. Pivot Points (Using 12/21 H/L/C: 126.456/123.602/125.992)

• Pivot P ≈ 125.35; R1 ≈ 127.10; S1 ≈ 124.24; R2 ≈ 128.20; S2 ≈ 122.50.
• Today: Price briefly traded near R1–R2 band and reversed below P, aiming toward S1. This is textbook pivot rejection behavior.

10. VWAP / Anchored VWAP

• Intraday: Price below session VWAP after the 14:00–15:00 spike failed. Sellers defending above‑VWAP pushes suggests distribution. An anchored VWAP from the 12/18 low would likely sit around mid‑125s to 126s; failure to hold above that intraday is bearish.

11. Volume & Volatility

• Volume increases on downlegs (e.g., 20:00–21:00 UTC selloff) and fades on bounces—distribution signature.
• ATR (Daily) roughly 6–8 points in recent weeks; hourly ATR ~0.6–0.8. A 24‑hour move from 126.6 entry to 123.9 target (≈2.7) sits inside daily ATR and is feasible.

12. Candlestick/Pattern Read

• Intraday: Long upper wicks at 127.8–128.4, bearish follow‑through into the U.S. session low 124.43. This is a “failed breakout → supply overwhelm” profile.
• Daily: 12/18 likely hammerish exhaustion, followed by two small‑body indecision candles and today’s intraday rejection. In downtrends this often becomes a bear flag resolution lower unless bulls reclaim the mid‑126s/127s decisively.

13. Regression/Trend Channels

• A descending channel from early December highs places the upper bound around 127.5–128.5 today, matching rejection. Midline sits near 125.8–126; price is below midline → path of least resistance lower toward 124–123.5 channel support.

14. Market Microstructure & Liquidity

• 125.8–126.2 was intraday support, now resistance (flip). Liquidity likely clusters below 124.5 and around 123.3 (prior swing low). A sweep into those pockets is probable if sellers stay active below VWAP.

15. Scenario Analysis (Next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Mean‑reversion bounce into 126.4–126.9 fails; price rotates down toward 124.2–123.9. Consolidation likely above 123.3 unless momentum accelerates.
• Bull case (≈25%): Reclaim and hold above 127.1 (pivot R1) opens 127.8–128.4 (61.8% fib) retest; sustained acceptance above 128.4 would target 129.2–130.0. This would reduce short edge.
• Bear extension (≈15%): Clean break below 123.3 triggers stops toward 122.5 (S2) and potentially 121–120. This requires an impulse day; less likely but within daily ATR.

16. Trade Thesis & Risk Management

• Thesis: Multi‑timeframe downtrend, failed 61.8% retrace, below 20‑DMA/VWAP/Hourly cloud, pivot rejection—all align to sell strength rather than chase weakness. Expect a lower‑high near 126.6–127.1 and rotation to 124s/123s.
• Entry: Patience for a bounce improves RR and reduces slippage. Optimal short around 126.6 (50% fib / underside of intraday MAs / near hourly cloud base) with allowance up to 127.1.
• Take‑Profit: First objective 124.2–124.9; stretch to 123.9 aligns with prior liquidity pocket and still within daily ATR.
• Invalidation (suggested stop, not an order here): Above 128.6–129.0 (clear acceptance over 61.8% and intraday supply) would invalidate the immediate short idea and risk a squeeze toward 130–133.

17. Time Path Expectation (Approx.)

• Asia/early Europe: Drift/mean‑revert to 126.0–126.8; sellers re‑engage.
• U.S. overlap: Retest of 124.2–124.9; potential liquidity sweep to ~123.9.
• End of 24h window: Likely consolidation 124.0–125.0 unless a break accelerates.

Bottom Line: Shorting a bounce into 126.6 offers favorable confluence and RR for a 24‑hour tactical trade toward 123.9.