SOL poised for Kijun reclaim: Buy the dip near 138 for a push into 142–144 within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bullish continuation after a high-volume intraday breakout, with a buy-the-dip setup into 137–138 and upside targets into 142.0–144.5.
• Key levels: Support 136.1–138.0 (R1 pivot confluence, prior breakout base). Resistance 142.0 (R2 pivot), 143.0–144.5 (supply cluster, prior swing highs, and R3 vicinity).
• Plan: Buy on a pullback near 137.8–138.2 aiming for 143.0 (first target), with extension potential toward 144–144.5 if momentum persists.

1. Market structure and trend context (daily)

• September to mid-October: SOL peaked near 248 then trend shifted lower with successive lower highs/lows. A capitulation-like leg occurred Oct 10–16 (220 → 184), then persistent distribution into mid-November.
• November downtrend: Lower lows through 11/21 (128.50), minor bounce, then new low 12/01 (123.31 intraday) with a hammer-like session that set the stage for a squeeze.
• Today 12/02: Strong rebound from 126.7 open to 139 close, reclaiming the 20-day moving average area. Structure now shows a V-shaped recovery off 12/01 low, producing a higher close versus most prior week’s closes, and challenging the 11/26–11/27 resistance band.
• Takeaway: The primary multi-week trend is still down, but the short-term trend (last 3–6 sessions) has flipped up. Expect mean-reversion plus momentum follow-through toward overhead supply at 143–144.5.

2. Intraday price action (hourly 12/02)

• Accumulation base 00:00–12:00 in a tight range 126.8–128.8 with multiple failed breakdowns (bear traps around 126.1–126.2 at 08:00–09:00), indicative of absorption.
• Breakout wave 13:00–16:00: Neckline around 130.7 cleared, then impulsive leg to 139.6 with the largest hourly volume at 15:00 (509M), confirming initiative buying.
• Consolidation 17:00–21:00: Holding 139–140 with shallow pullbacks to 138.5–139.0; dip buying evident, and closing near the upper third of the day’s range. Minor fade at 20:00 was bought.
• Read: Classic accumulation → breakout → flag. Typically resolves higher after a modest dip toward the breakout shelf (137.8–138.2).

3. Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: 138.7–139.0 (intraday VWAP band/flag base), 137.8–138.2 (classic pivot R1 retest), 136.1 (late-Nov demand and daily micro shelf), 133.6 (11/30 close and 50% retracement of the last upswing).
• Immediate resistances: 142.0 (classic pivot R2), 143.0–144.5 (11/26 high cluster 144.47, R3 ≈144.2, supply pocket), 146.7 (mid-Nov reaction high), 150–151 (upper daily Bollinger and psychological).

4. Pivots (classic) using 11/30 H/L/C = 139.94/133.56/133.56

• Pivot P ≈ 135.69
• R1 ≈ 137.82 (today’s breakout shelf/ideal dip buy)
• R2 ≈ 142.07 (first upside target/likely check)
• R3 ≈ 144.20 (upper target within 24h if momentum persists)
• S1 ≈ 131.44; S2 ≈ 129.31 Confluence: Price closed above R1; pullback to R1 is text-book continuation entry. R2-R3 overlap with 142–144.5 supply.

5. Fibonacci analytics

• Swing measured: 11/26 high 144.47 → 12/01 low 123.31 (range ≈ 21.16)
• Retracements from low: 0.382 ≈ 131.38, 0.5 ≈ 133.89, 0.618 ≈ 136.39, 0.786 ≈ 139.94
• Current: 139.0 lies just under the 0.786 retracement at 139.94, a common inflection; initial rejection near 140 fits. If reclaimed with acceptance, a full retest of 144.5 becomes likely (0.886/full retrace).
• Extensions (if 139.9 breaks with power): 1.0 = 144.47 retest; 1.272 ≈ 149.8; 1.618 ≈ 155.0 (likely beyond 24h horizon but informs upside path).

6. Moving averages (est.)

• 20D SMA ≈ 137.0 (price reclaimed; bullish short-term signal).
• 50D SMA well above (likely 170–190 given Sep–Oct prints); price remains below, indicating broader downtrend intact.
• Implication: Short-term momentum up within a medium-term downtrend → rallies into 143–146 are sell zones for swing shorts, but near-term rally continuation is favored before larger sellers re-emerge.

7. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimate mid-50s, rising from sub-40 last week. Bullish slope with room before overbought (>70). Supports further upside over 24h.
• Hourly RSI(14): 58–65 range through the US session; slight bear divergence is modest, not confirmed by price/volume. A dip to reset RSI toward 50 near 138 would be healthy before a push into 142–144.
• Stochastic (H1): High but rolling; favors a pullback to value (137–138) before continuation.

8. MACD and histogram

• Daily MACD: Histogram turning positive after a prolonged negative run; signal cross up either occurred or is imminent. Bullish early-phase turn, consistent with 2–4 sessions of follow-through typically.
• Hourly MACD: Positive and flattening during the flag; pullback to the signal line near 138 would set the stage for a re-acceleration leg.

9. Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.)

• Mid-band ≈ 20D SMA ≈ 137.0; upper band ≈ 149–151; lower ≈ 123–125.
• Price has moved from lower band proximity (12/01) to above mid-band (12/02). Statistical bias favors a test toward the upper band area in coming sessions; first stop is 142–144 where bands begin to open.

10. Ichimoku (daily, est.)

• Tenkan-sen ≈ 134–136; Kijun-sen ≈ 140–143 from recent equilibrium.
• Price now above Tenkan, pressing Kijun. A clean H1/H4 close above ~140.5–141 would confirm a Kijun reclaim → typical follow-through to prior swing highs (143–145). Cloud resistance likely higher (150–160).

11. Volume, OBV, and market profile

• Volume: Today’s impulse had a strong 15:00 hourly bar; subsequent consolidation on lighter volume—bullish (no heavy distribution at highs).
• OBV (qualitative): Turned up sharply; no meaningful bearish divergence yet.
• Profile: Low-volume area between 138–140; acceptance above 140 often enables a swift move to the next high-volume node at 143–144.5. Value area from the morning sits 130–133; the session re-priced higher and held.

12. Pattern recognition

• Intraday inverse head-and-shoulders: LS ~126.9, Head ~126.14, RS ~127.9–128.4; neckline ~130.7. Measured move ~4.6 → 135.3 achieved; overextension to 139 indicates momentum regime.
• Daily two-candle pattern: 12/01 hammer-like low followed by a wide-range green day 12/02—bullish continuation setup.

13. DMI/ADX (qualitative)

• D+ crossing above D-, ADX rising from low teens: early trend phase up on short-term horizon; room to strengthen before exhaustion.

14. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Intraday session VWAP sits around 137.8–138.2 post-breakout; price holding above signals strong hands in control.
• Anchored VWAP from 12/01 low (123.31) likely near 135.5–136.0. Above both AVWAP and session VWAP is constructive; pullbacks into these levels are buyable.

15. Risk, volatility, and ATR

• 14D ATR (est.) ≈ 7–9. A 24h expected range of ≈ ±6–8 from the mid-price suggests 132–147 envelope. Our target zone (142–144) is within 1 ATR, realistic for next 24h.
• Notable risk: 0.786 Fib (≈139.9) is sticky. Initial rejections are common before a decisive break; hence the preference to buy the dip rather than chase.

16. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Possible ABC up from 12/01 low: A: 123→136, B: pullback 136→132–133 (brief), C: 133→139+ underway with likely completion near prior swing highs 143–145. Supports our 24h upside bias before larger timeframe sellers reappear.

17. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early pullback to 137.5–138.5, buyers step in; push to 142.0 (R2), then probe 143.0–144.2. Close near 142–143 if acceptance above 140 establishes.
• Bull extension (25%): Minimal dip; clean break above 140.5–141 with momentum; tag 144–144.5 and wick toward 145.5 if stops trigger above 144.47.
• Bear risk (15%): Failure to hold 137.5; slide to 136.1. Loss of 135.5/135.0 opens 133.6 retest; that would postpone the breakout. Still, higher probability that 136–138 holds on first test.

18. Trade plan and execution

• Bias: Buy the dip.
• Entry: Limit 137.9 (just above R1 137.82 and within the intraday flag base), improves risk-reward versus chasing 139–140.
• Targets: First target 142.0–143.0; stretch 144.2–144.5 if momentum persists.
• Risk management (guidance): A logical stop sits below 135.5 (anchored VWAP/structure), or tighter below 136.1 if aiming for 1.8–2.5R to 143–144. This keeps risk contained if the 0.786 retracement rejects the move.

Decision rationale

• Multiple-tool confluence (pivots R1 retest, 20D SMA reclaim, VWAP support, improving MACD/RSI, pattern-driven breakout) favors continuation. Overhead resistance exists at 142–144.5, but with today’s structure and volume, a test of that zone is likely within 24h.

Prediction for next 24h

• Expect a dip to 137.5–138.5, then advance to 142.0–143.5 with intraday wicks possibly reaching 144.2–144.5. Close likely in the 141–143 band if buyers maintain control.