SOL oversold flush sets up a 24h mean‑reversion bounce toward 131.8

Executive summary and 24h path

• Bias next 24h: Tactical rebound within a broader downtrend. Expect a mean-reversion bounce toward the 127.6 pivot and the 130.9–131.8 resistance zone, provided 123.5 holds intraday.
• Primary path (60%): Early pullback to 124.8–125.3, reclaim daily pivot (≈127.6), extension to 130.9 (Fib 38.2%) and 131.8 (R1).
• Alt path (40%): Failure below 125 → retest 123.5; a firm break opens 121.7 (S1) and 120 handle.

1. Trend, market structure, and context

• Higher time frame: Persistent downtrend from Sep highs ~250s to today’s 125.80. Lower highs and lower lows, with decisive breakdown from the 140–145 shelf during Nov 27–30.
• Recent sequence (daily closes): 143.01 (11/26) → 140.85 → 137.39 → 136.08 → 133.56 → 125.80 (intraday as of 12/01), confirming acceleration lower into support.
• Micro structure (hourly 12/01): • 15:00 UTC: High-volume flush to 123.40, close 125.24 (long lower wick). • 16:00 prints new session low close at 123.51, then 17:00–18:00 base, 21:00 push to 125.79. • Double-bottom zone 123.4–123.9 formed with demand stepping in.

2. Moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 138.26 (computed from 11/11–11/30 closes). Price = 125.80 is 9% below: short-term trend bearish but stretched.
• 50D/100D (qualitative): materially above price (mid/high 160s+), confirming medium-term downtrend.
• Conclusion: Trend is down, but the distance below the 20D SMA suggests mean-reversion potential in next 24h.

3. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Basis ≈ 138.26. Recent stdev ≈ 4.5–5.0 by observed dispersion; Lower Band ≈ 129.3 (138.26 – 2×4.5).
• Today’s low 123.49 decisively pierced the lower band (6–6.5 below LB), an oversold excursion. Price now 125.80, still sub-LB, typical of rebound setups toward the band/basis in the next 1–2 sessions.
• Implication: Statistical pull toward 129–131 (LB back-test) first, then 133–136 if momentum expands.

4. RSI (14)

• Qualitative estimate ~30–35: a string of lower closes since 11/26 and a large down day today imply oversold but not yet deeply capitulative on daily. Hourly RSI likely rebounded from sub-30 to mid-40s post-flush.
• Implication: Room for a relief pop without being overbought quickly.

5. MACD (12,26,9)

• Daily: Negative MACD line with widening negative territory since 11/26; histogram likely started to decelerate intraday after the flush as price stabilized. No bullish cross yet, so any bounce is counter-trend.
• Implication: Favors a tactical, not structural, long. Watch for histogram contraction to support the bounce.

6. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price well below cloud; Tenkan/Conversion (9) ≈ mid-130s, Kijun/Base (26) ≈ low-140s.
• Implication: Bearish regime, but distance from Tenkan/ Kijun supports a snapback toward 130–135 if demand persists.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing used: 11/26 high 143.01 → 12/01 low 123.49. • 23.6%: 128.25 • 38.2%: 130.90 • 50%: 133.50 • 61.8%: 136.11
• Confluence: 130.9 aligns with intraday resistance and daily pivot cluster; 133.5 equals prior close (11/30) and 50% retrace; 136.1 ≈ prior supply band.
• Implication: First logical magnet 130.9; stretch 131.8–133.5 if momentum.

8. Support / resistance, supply-demand

• Supports: 123.40–123.95 (today’s double-bottom), 122.27 (11/21 low), 121.66 (S1), psychological 120.
• Resistances: 127.62 (classic pivot), 130.90 (Fib 38.2%), 131.76 (R1), 133.56 (11/30 close / 50% Fib), 137.39–140.85 (late-Nov value area).
• Implication: Tight cluster 130.9–131.8 is first serious supply and good TP zone for 24h.

9. Volume, flows, VWAP

• Daily volume 12/01 elevated vs weekend; intraday 15:00 UTC bar showed outsized volume on the down-thrust to 123.4, often an exhaustion signature.
• Post-flush hours showed stabilizing volumes into the bounce to 125.8, suggesting absorption.
• Intraday VWAP (approx) likely in 124–125.5 range; last trade at 125.8 indicates VWAP reclaim, marginally bullish for a continuation into the pivot.

10. Volatility and ATR

• Recent daily ranges 4–10. Using recent sequence, ATR(14) ≈ 6.
• With ATR ~6, a move from 125 to 131 is a 1x ATR expansion, feasible within 24h in crypto markets.
• Risk symmetry: downside to S1 121.7 is ~3–4 points from proposed entry (125.3), upside to 131.8 is ~6.5 points: >1.6:1 reward/risk.

11. Pivot points (using 12/01 H/L/C = 133.589 / 123.486 / 125.797)

• P = 127.624
• R1 = 131.762
• R2 = 137.727
• S1 = 121.659
• S2 = 117.521
• Implication: Expect magnetization around P = 127.6 and tests of R1 if sentiment improves; aligns with Fib 38.2% 130.9.

12. Candles and patterns

• Intraday hammer-like reaction on 15:00 followed by basing and higher close at 21:00.
• Daily will likely print a long-tailed red if it closes near 125–126 after a deep intraday low; these often precede 1–2 day mean-reversion.

13. Channel/mean reversion and regime assessment

• Price is meaningfully below 20D mean and under lower Bollinger, together with an exhaustion flush → high-probability short-term reversion signal.
• However, higher timeframe trend remains down; treat this as a counter-trend tactical long with conservative targets and strict risk control.

14. Scenario analysis and probabilities

• Base case (≈60%): Early dip buy holds 124.8–125.3, push through 126.4–127.6, acceleration to 130.9–131.8.
• Bear case (≈30%): Retest and break 123.5 → 121.7 (S1). If momentum spikes, 120 round number magnet.
• Tail risk (≈10%): V-shape squeeze extends beyond 133.5 toward 136.1 (61.8% Fib) on short-covering.

15. Trade plan and execution

• Direction: Buy (counter-trend mean reversion).
• Entry: Limit near 125.30 (pullback zone), acceptable chase up to ≤126 if momentum firm.
• Target (24h): 131.80 (R1 confluence), with partials possible at 127.6 (pivot) and 130.9 (Fib 38.2%).
• Risk (not required but prudent): Stop 121.60 (S1/pivot S1). Risk ≈ 3.7–3.9 vs reward ≈ 6.5, R:R ≈ 1.7:1.

Conclusion

• The market is in a dominant daily downtrend, but today’s lower-band breach, capitulation flush to 123.4, VWAP reclaim, and strong confluence at 130.9–131.8 favor a 24h relief rally. Tactical Buy with a tight invalidation below 121.6 and TP near 131.8 aligns best with the evidence.