Tradzar
Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI
SOL at a Pivot After a Relief Bounce: Selling the $128 Supply Zone for a $124 Retest
Market Snapshot (SOL)
- Current price: $125.57
- Context (daily trend): From the early Nov peak area (~$189) SOL has been in a broad downtrend with lower highs/lows. Since mid-Dec it has been range-to-down with repeated failures to reclaim the mid-$130s.
- Last daily candle (2026-01-28): O $127.05 / H $127.95 / L $124.97 / C $125.57
- Daily close is below the open → mild bearish day.
- Day’s low (~$124.97) tested support but held.
1) Price Action & Structure (Dow Theory / Market Structure)
Higher timeframe (daily)
- Swing high sequence: 148 (Jan 14) → 145 (Jan 16 close area) → 141 (Jan 6) already below prior; recent attempts topped around $127–$132 only.
- Swing low sequence: 132 (Jan 19 low area) → 125 (Jan 20) → 117.6 (Jan 25) → bounce → back to 125–127.
- This reads as a bearish structure (lower highs), with price currently below prior breakdown zone (~$129–$133).
Lower timeframe (hourly, last ~24h)
- Intraday highs clustered near $127.95–$127.96 (resistance).
- Series of lower intraday peaks after the midday high → intraday distribution.
- Price is sitting near the lower portion of the day’s range (close near $125.57 vs high $127.95).
Implication: Structure favors sell-the-rip until SOL can reclaim and hold above the $127.9–$129.5 band.
2) Key Support/Resistance (Horizontal + S/R flips)
Resistance (supply)
- $127.95–$128.30: repeated hourly rejection (today’s high + nearby daily congestion).
- $129.38–$130.50: prior daily pivot area (Jan 21–22 zone). Likely heavy supply if retested.
- $133.3–$136.3: major breakdown region (Jan 7–12 area); would be a regime shift if reclaimed.
Support (demand)
- $124.90–$125.00: today’s low zone; immediate support.
- $123.85–$124.20: recent daily closes/support band late Dec.
- $118.65–$119.60: strong swing support (Jan 26 low ~118.66; Dec 18–19 region).
Implication: With price at $125.6, upside is capped by nearby resistance (~$128), while downside has “air pockets” toward $124, then $122–$123.
3) Trend & Moving-Average Logic (qualitative, from the series)
Even without explicitly computing MAs, the sequence since early Jan (141 → 146 → 143 → 138 → 133 → 125 → 129 → 127 → 118 → 124 → 127 → 125) indicates:
- Likely below short/intermediate moving averages (e.g., 20D/50D) or at best failing to regain them.
- Typical bearish regime: rallies into overhead supply get sold.
Implication: Trend-following bias remains bearish for the next 24h unless price breaks and holds above ~$128.3–$129.5.
4) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)
- The large drop into Jan 25 (~$118.8) followed by a bounce to ~$127 suggests a relief rally.
- However, the bounce stalled quickly and price rolled over back to ~$125–$126 → this often maps to bearish momentum (MACD histogram fading / RSI failing to push above midline).
Implication: Momentum favors continuation lower or sideways-to-lower, not a strong up impulse.
5) Volatility & Range Metrics (ATR-style reasoning)
- Recent daily ranges are meaningful: e.g., Jan 25 had a wide range (to $117.6). Jan 28 range was ~3.0 points (127.95–124.97).
- A reasonable 24h expectation is a $2.5–$5.0 move window, with tails if $124.9 breaks.
Implication: Place entries near resistance (for short) and targets near supports; avoid chasing mid-range.
6) Volume / Participation (what we can infer)
- Daily volume spiked during selloffs (notably Nov crash and Jan 20 / Jan 25 events). That is consistent with distribution and risk-off flows.
- The recent rebound days (Jan 26–27) had strong volume, but today’s day closed red—often a sign the bounce is being sold into.
Implication: Buyers have not demonstrated control; sellers are active on rallies.
7) Candlestick / Pattern Reads
- Jan 25: big bearish impulse (capitulation-like).
- Jan 26–27: rebound (dead-cat / mean reversion).
- Jan 28: failure to continue; red day with rejection near ~128.
This cluster frequently resolves with a retest of the rebound base (i.e., revisiting ~$124–$123) before any sustainable recovery.
8) Scenario Map (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): bearish drift / retest support
- Price likely attempts minor bounce into $126.8–$128.0, meets supply, then drifts down.
- Probable destination: $124.9, then $123.8–$124.2.
Bull invalidation (lower probability): reclaim and hold above resistance
- If SOL breaks $128.3 and holds (hourly closes above), next magnet is $129.4–$130.5.
- This would weaken the short thesis.
Bear acceleration
- Clean break below $124.9 opens momentum toward $123 and potentially $121–$122 within 24h (given recent volatility).
Trade Construction (Decision + Optimal Entry)
Given:
- overarching downtrend,
- failed continuation after the rebound,
- nearby tight resistance at ~$127.9–$128.3,
- and reasonable downside space back to ~$123–$124,
Bias: Short-term (24h) SELL (short) on a bounce into resistance.
Optimal open (entry)
- Best risk/reward is not at $125.57 mid-range, but near supply.
- Open Price (short): $127.80 (just below today’s high zone; aims to catch a retest of resistance).
Target (take profit)
- First high-probability target is the support band below today’s low.
- Close Price (take profit): $123.90 (near the $123.85–$124.2 demand zone).
(Risk note for execution: a practical invalidation would be sustained acceptance above ~$129.5, but you didn’t request a stop level.)
24h Price Movement Prediction
- Expected direction: Slight-to-moderate bearish
- Expected 24h range: roughly $123.5–$128.3
- Most likely path: bounce toward $127–$128, rejection, then drift to $124 → $123.9.