SOL Under Heavy Distribution: Breakdown Continuation Favored Over the Next 24 Hours

1) Market structure (multi-timeframe)

Daily trend (Nov 2025 → now)

• Primary trend: bearish. SOL peaked in early Nov (~170) and has printed a persistent sequence of lower highs / lower lows.
• Key selloffs:
  • Mid-Nov breakdown from ~160s → ~130.
  • Late-Jan/early-Feb waterfall: ~127 → 105 (Jan 31) and continuation to ~90 (Feb 4).
• Latest daily candle (Feb 4): O 97.60 / H 99.43 / L 90.36 / C 90.66
  • That’s a large bearish expansion candle with a close near the lows → strong distribution.

Intraday (hourly Feb 3–4)

• Clear intraday downtrend: repeated failures below ~99–100, then stepped liquidation from 96 → 94 → 92 → 90.
• Small bounce attempt around 18:00–20:00 up to 94.27 was fully rejected back to ~90.7.
• The final hours show no convincing basing; price is ending the session at/near the session lows.

Conclusion (structure): bears control both daily and intraday; rallies are being sold.

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2) Support/Resistance (price action + pivots)

Immediate supports

• 90.36–90.70: today’s low/close region (micro support). If this breaks, it often triggers stops.
• ~88–89: next psychological/air-pocket zone (not shown explicitly in data, but typical next magnet after breaking 90).

Immediate resistances (sell zones)

• 92.60–93.10: prior intraday shelf (former support turned resistance).
• 94.20–94.30: intraday swing high (failed rebound).
• 97.50–99.50: breakdown origin zone (strongest near-term supply; also aligns with earlier hourly congestion).

Implication: risk/reward favors selling into rebounds toward resistance rather than buying into falling support.

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3) Momentum & trend indicators (inferred from the series)

Moving averages (conceptual alignment)

• With price collapsing from ~140s (mid-Jan) to ~90, price is almost certainly below the 20/50/200-day MAs.
• The slope of short and intermediate MAs would be down, implying a “sell-the-rip” regime.

RSI (behavioral inference)

• The magnitude and persistence of the down move suggests RSI is likely oversold (<30) on at least the daily.
• Oversold does not mean buy in a strong downtrend; it more often signals:
  • elevated probability of short-covering bounces,
  • but trend continuation unless a base + bullish divergence forms.

MACD (behavioral inference)

• The sharp acceleration lower (late Jan → early Feb) implies MACD is bearish and expanded (wide negative histogram). That typically supports continuation until volatility mean-reverts.

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4) Volatility, range expansion, and volume

ATR / volatility regime

• Daily ranges recently expanded dramatically:
  • Jan 31 low ~100 vs high ~118 (very wide)
  • Feb 4 range ~9%+ from ~99.4 to ~90.36
• This is a high-volatility bearish trend (capitulation-like). These regimes commonly produce sharp countertrend pops, but directionally remain fragile.

Volume

• Daily volumes during the selloff are elevated (e.g., Jan 31 ~9.5B, Feb 4 ~6.9B).
• High volume on down days = distribution/forced selling. It can also precede a bottom, but the tape still needs confirmation (higher low + reclaim of resistance).

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5) Pattern read (classic setups)

Breakdown & continuation

• The late-Jan breakdown under ~117–118 led to a fast move to ~105, then failed rebound to ~104–105 and continued to ~90.
• That’s consistent with a bear flag / bear pennant type continuation: rebound is weak, then new lows.

No confirmed reversal structure yet

• There is no daily higher low and no reclaim of a meaningful level (e.g., 97.5–100). Without that, odds favor continuation or choppy downside.

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6) Next 24 hours outlook (probabilistic)

Given:

• dominant downtrend,
• close near low,
• rejection of rebound to 94.27,
• high volatility,

Base case (higher probability):

• Continuation / retest of 90.36 and potential sweep toward 88–89.

Secondary case:

• Short-covering bounce into 92.6–94.3, then sellers reappear.

Invalidation (for shorts):

• A sustained reclaim above 94.3, and especially above 97.6–99.5, would shift near-term momentum toward a deeper rebound.

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7) Trade plan (optimal open/close)

Decision: SELL (short)

Rationale: trend + structure + rejection + close near lows implies downside pressure remains dominant for the next 24h, with rebounds likely sold.

Optimal open (entry)

• Preferred entry (sell the bounce): 93.10
  • This targets the 92.6–93.1 resistance shelf while avoiding chasing the low.
  • If price never bounces, the trade may be missed; that is acceptable vs. poor R:R chasing.

Take-profit (close)

• Close (take profit): 88.80
  • Captures a likely downside extension if 90 breaks, while front-running the psychological 88–89 region.

(Risk note for execution: in this volatility regime, consider scaling—partial at ~90.4 retest and remainder at ~88.8; but the requested output includes one close price.)