SOL teeters at S1: short the bounce into pivot, aim for S2 into the weekend

Overview and context

• Timeframe covered: Daily from 2025-09-14 to 2025-12-12, plus hourly for 2025-12-11 to 2025-12-12. Current price: 131.9025.
• Big picture: SOL has been in a persistent downtrend since mid‑September (~249 → ~132), with aggressive, high-volume down legs in Oct/Nov and subsequent lower-high rallies. The structure remains bearish on higher timeframes; near term, price is testing a key support cluster around 130–132.

Trend and market structure

• Daily structure: Lower highs and lower lows since early Oct. Notable lower-highs: 234.86 (Oct 2) → 205–210 zone (late Oct) → 171 (mid Nov) → 145.73 (Dec 3). Lows have stair-stepped down: 192 (late Sep), 155 (Nov 4), 130.85 (Nov 17), 126.71 (Dec 1). The recent bounce to 145.73 failed, and price has rotated back into the 130–140 range.
• 4h/1h structure: Today printed a sharp breakdown from 139 area to mid-133s at 15:00 UTC on heavy volume, then continued to 131s. That move converted 133.5–134 (prior intraday base) into resistance. A descending triangle-like microstructure is visible: lower intraday highs (139.2 → 138.6 → 138.0 → 133.8) pressing on 131–132 support. Base case is a bounce-and-fail into 133–134 followed by another push lower to test 128–126.

Key levels (confluence from pivots, Fibs, MAs, prior highs/lows)

• Resistance:
  • 133.5–134.5: Prior support turned resistance; near daily pivot P (~134.48 from 12/11 data).
  • 136.0–136.5: 20D SMA area and 50% retrace of the Dec 1 → Dec 3 swing; also near Ichimoku Kijun/Tenkan on lower TFs.
  • 138.3–139.7: 38.2% retrace zone on recent swing and R1 (~139.57). Rejection here earlier today.
  • 142.7: R2 (stretch target on a squeeze), also prior supply.
  • 145.7: Dec 3 swing high; larger bearish pivot.
• Support:
  • 131.3: S1 (~131.28) pivot zone and today’s developing floor; intraday low 130.80.
  • 128.3: Dec 7 low/ledge.
  • 126.2–126.7: S2 (~126.18) and Dec 1 swing low (126.71) – major near-term target/support.
  • 122.3: Nov 21 low and next big support shelf.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20SMA: Approx 136–137 (price below) → bearish bias; mean-reversion magnet near 136, but below implies rallies are sells in trend.
• Daily 50SMA: Estimated 160–170 (price well below) → intermediate trend down.
• Daily 200SMA: Likely >200 (price far below) → macro trend down.
• EMA 8/21 (daily): 8 < 21 and both sloping down → bearish momentum regime.
• 1h EMAs: Bearishly stacked post-breakdown; price below 8/21 EMA bands; rallies into 133.5–134 likely fade zones.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): ~35–40 (estimate). Not deeply oversold; room to fall. Momentum consistent with downtrend.
• 1h RSI: Tagging oversold (high 20s/low 30s) on selloff; supports a modest bounce to resistance, then continuation lower.
• Stochastic (1h/4h): Oversold and attempting to curl, which often fuels a countertrend bounce into resistance in bear regimes.
• CCI (1h): Likely below -100 earlier; rebounding but still negative on 4h → corrective bounces expected to stall under resistance.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with bearish histogram expansion from early Dec highs—bearish continuation context.
• 4h/1h MACD: Negative and flattening; room for a small signal-line kiss on a bounce, then a fresh momentum push lower is favored.

Volatility and range

• Daily ATR(14): ~7.5–8.5. Expect ~6–10 point daily swings. From 131.9, an 8-point move targets ~124–140 in 24h. Skew is down given trend and structure.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily mid-band near 136; lower band estimated 124–126. Price is below mid-band and traveling the lower half → rallies to mid-band often fade; lower band aligns with the 126 area support target.

Ichimoku (trend and equilibrium)

• Daily: Price well below cloud; Lagging span under price; baseline (Kijun) above price; net bearish.
• 1h: Price below cloud, Tenkan and Kijun clustered ~135±1; any bounce likely stalls near/under 134–136 unless decisive reclaim. As long as below Kijun, downtrend continuation is base case.

Volume, OBV, and flow

• Distribution footprints: Most recent large hourly volumes occurred on the 15:00–16:00 UTC breakdown (138.5 → 133.8 → 132.2). High volume on down bars = supply-dominated tape.
• OBV (conceptual): Lower highs since early Dec; confirms distribution.
• Session VWAP (intraday): Price remained below through the day; attempts to reclaim were rejected. This keeps rallies as mean-reversion sells into VWAP.
• Volume profile (range 126–146): Visible node around 138–140 acted as supply; a thinner pocket exists 130–128, which can accelerate if 130.8 breaks.

Fibonacci mapping

• Nov 17 (130.85) → Dec 3 (145.73): 38.2% = ~140.05; 50% = ~138.29; 61.8% = ~136.53. Price is below 61.8%, signaling trend failure of that rally leg.
• Dec 1 (126.71) → Dec 3 (145.73): 38.2% ≈ 138.46; 50% ≈ 136.22; 61.8% ≈ 133.99. Price is below 61.8% and rejected 38.2%/50% earlier this week. Confluence supports 133.5–134 as sell zone, with next magnet at 126.7.
• Short-term swing (today): 139.85 → 130.80. A 38.2–50% bounce computes ~134.1–135.3; ideal short supply pocket overlaps pivot P and EMAs.
• Extensions if 130.8 breaks: 1.272 ≈ 129.1; 1.618 ≈ 127.8 from the 139.85 → 130.80 leg with a shallow bounce. These sit just above the 126.7 structural low—good take-profit clustering.

Pivots (derived from 12/11 H/L/C: 137.678/129.384/136.372)

• P: 134.478; R1: 139.572; R2: 142.772; S1: 131.278; S2: 126.184.
• Today rejected R1 zone in the morning, then slid to just above S1; if S1 breaks decisively, S2 becomes the natural magnet.

Pattern recognition

• Descending channel since Dec 3 high; today’s drop fits a bear-flag breakdown from the 138–139 consolidation.
• Micro descending triangle: Lower highs squeezing onto ~131–132 base. Measured move from 139→132 height (~7) projects to ~125 on breakdown, close to S2/Dec 1 low—matching other methods.
• No bullish reversal candle yet on daily; intraday shows only stabilization, not accumulation.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From the 139.85 local swing high, we can count:
  • Wave 1 down to 133.77 (15:00 breakdown bar close).
  • Wave 2 corrective bounce attempted but weak.
  • Wave 3 extended to 130.80 low.
  • Wave 4 sideways-to-lower high chop expected toward 133–134.
  • Wave 5 extension would target 129 → 127.5 range before a more material intraday corrective bounce. This aligns with Fib extensions and S2.

ADX/DI (qualitative)

• Daily ADX likely in mid-20s; -DI > +DI → trend present and bearish but not exhausted. Breakdown volume today hints ADX can expand on further weakness.

Heikin-Ashi and candle read

• Daily Heikin-Ashi candles likely show consecutive bearish bodies after Dec 3; no clear HA reversal signal. Today’s real-body candle is large and red on higher volumes intraday.
• Intraday candles: Long bearish bodies on breakdown, shallow-bodied stabilization later—typical pause before next leg lower unless a strong reclaim appears.

Seasonality/liquidity note

• Heading into weekend hours; crypto liquidity can thin, increasing the probability of stop-runs and sharper wicks. In bear contexts, weekend liquidity often accelerates downside probes into obvious levels (126–127, even 122 if panic triggers).

24-hour path expectation (probabilities)

• Base case (≈60%): Relief bounce toward 133–134 (pivot P / broken support), fail, then continuation lower to 128–126 area. Structure: bounce → rejection near P → S1 break → S2 tag.
• Bull case (≈25%): Strong reclaim of 134.5 and hourly close above 135–136 (Kijun/20D mid-band). That opens 138–139 squeeze, but trend remains down unless 140 is held on pullback.
• Bear extension (≈15%): Immediate loss of 130.8 with minimal bounce, fast move to 126–125, potential flush toward 122 on momentum if liquidity thins.

Risk management and invalidation (for the short idea)

• Ideal entry: 133.5–134.0 on a bounce to pivot/EMA cluster.
• Invalidation: Sustained hourly close back above 136.5 (50% retrace and EMA/Kijun confluence) would negate the immediate short and warn of a squeeze to 138–139.
• Take-profit: First scale 129–128.5; core target 126.2–126.7 (S2/Dec 1 low). Given the request format, the primary TP is specified below.

Synthesis and decision

• Confluence across trend filters (MAs/Ichimoku), momentum (RSI/MACD), volatility (ATR/Bands), structure (descending triangle/channel), Fibs, and pivots all argue for selling rallies. The most tactical, asymmetric opportunity within 24h is to short a bounce into 133.5–134 with a target around 126.2–126.7. Probability-weighted outcome favors a retest of S2/Dec 1 low over a full reclaim of the mid-band (~136).

Actionable plan (24h)

• Decision: Sell (Short Position).
• Optimal open (limit on bounce): 133.80 (near pivot P and prior breakdown base).
• Target (take profit): 126.20 (S2 confluence and preexisting daily low region).