Tradzar
Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI
SOL Post-Crash Coil: Resistance Rejection Signals a 24h Pullback Toward the 84 Demand Zone
Market context (Daily timeframe)
1) Trend & structure (price action)
- Major trend (Nov → early Feb): bearish. SOL fell from ~154 (Nov 12 open) to the capitulation low ~68.69 (Feb 6 low).
- The selloff accelerated into Jan 31 (low ~99.98, close ~105.44) then a second leg down to Feb 5 (low ~77.77, close ~78.19).
- Feb 6 printed a very large rebound candle (low ~68.69 → close ~87.46), consistent with capitulation + short covering.
- Since then, daily closes: Feb 7 ~87.64, Feb 8 ~87.04, Feb 9 ~87.26 → stalling/sideways after the bounce.
Conclusion: Primary trend is still down, but the market is in a post-crash consolidation around ~87.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal levels)
Using the daily highs/lows and the crash-zone:
- Immediate support (intraday/daily):
- 82.95–84.10 (Feb 9 intraday lows + prior hourly base).
- 77.77–78.20 (Feb 5 low/close) = key “line in the sand”.
- 68.69 (Feb 6 spike low) = extreme capitulation support.
- Immediate resistance:
- 88.30–89.50 (Feb 9 high ~88.32; Feb 6 high ~89.51).
- 92.00–93.00 (Feb 4 close ~92.03 and breakdown zone).
Conclusion: Price is compressed between ~83 support and ~88.5 resistance; a break of either side likely drives the next 24h impulse.
3) Volatility & range diagnostics (ATR-style observation)
- The recent daily ranges are very large:
- Feb 5: ~92.90 → 77.77 (range ~15.1)
- Feb 6: ~89.51 → 68.69 (range ~20.8)
- Feb 9: ~88.32 → 82.95 (range ~5.37)
- This is a classic volatility contraction after expansion (post-crash “coil”).
Implication: After the large volatility event, breakouts from tight ranges frequently retest; mean reversion dominates until a clean level breaks on volume.
4) Volume/participation (from provided volume)
- Feb 5 and Feb 6 volumes are extremely elevated (capitulation + reversal day).
- After that, volume trends down (Feb 7–9 lower vs Feb 5–6), consistent with consolidation rather than trend resumption.
Implication: Without renewed volume, upside continuation above 89–92 is harder; price often retests support first.
Intraday (Hourly) microstructure (Feb 8 22:00 → Feb 9 21:57)
1) Intraday trend
- Early hours: drift from ~87 down to ~83.19 (10:00), then base-building.
- Midday → late session: strong rebound back to 87.78 (17:00 close) and a push to ~88.46 high (18:00).
- Last hours: failure to hold highs; price rotated back to ~87.27.
Read: Intraday shows a V-shaped recovery, but buyers could not sustain above ~88.0–88.5.
2) Key hourly levels
- Demand zone: 83.2–84.0 (multiple hours base/reversal)
- Supply zone: 88.0–88.5 (rejection area)
3) Momentum inference (price-action proxy)
- The impulsive rebound from ~83.2 → ~88.5 was not followed by higher highs; instead, it transitioned into a lower-volatility drift.
- This often precedes either:
- a pullback to re-accumulate (most common in bear-market rallies), or
- a squeeze above resistance (requires strong follow-through).
Given the larger daily downtrend, the pullback scenario has higher base-rate.
Multi-technique synthesis
A) Market regime (trend vs mean reversion)
- Daily trend: bearish.
- Post-capitulation: mean-reversion/consolidation.
- In bear regimes, rebounds into resistance frequently get sold.
Bias: Slightly bearish for next 24h unless 88.5 breaks cleanly.
B) “Bounce retracement” logic (measured move / retrace zones)
- Crash low anchor: ~68.7 (Feb 6)
- Bounce high area: ~89.5 (Feb 6)
- Current: ~87.26, i.e., still near upper portion of the bounce.
In bear bounces, price commonly retraces back toward the midpoint/last base:
- Mid/rotation area aligns with ~83–85.
Bias: Pullback toward 84ish is plausible within 24h.
C) Supply/demand + failed breakout
- Failure to hold above 88–88.5 after testing suggests active supply.
- With no clear higher-high continuation, odds favor a rotation back to support.
Bias: Short-term bearish.
24-hour forecast (probabilistic)
Base case (higher probability): Range-to-down rotation
- Expected path: 87.3 → 86.0 → 84.5–83.5 test.
- If 83.2 breaks, extension toward ~81–80 becomes possible, but not the primary case.
Alternative case (lower probability): Upside squeeze continuation
- If price reclaims and holds 88.5, next target zone: 92–93.
Given prevailing daily bearish structure + rejection at 88.5, the base case dominates.
Trading plan (1 position, next 24h)
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
Rationale: Bearish higher-timeframe trend + post-bounce resistance rejection near 88–88.5 + consolidation likely resolving via pullback.
Optimal open (entry)
- Prefer shorting closer to resistance to improve R:R.
- Open Price (sell limit): 88.10 (inside the supply zone, below 88.5 cap, allowing a retest pop).
Target (take profit)
- First meaningful demand/rotation zone is ~83.5–84.0.
- Close Price (take profit): 84.00
(Risk note for completeness: invalidation would be a firm hold above ~88.5–89.0; you did not request a stop price, so not provided.)