Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI

SOL Breaks Down From the 82–85 Pivot: Bear-Flag Risk Points to Another 77 Retest

SOL (Solana) — Multi-timeframe technical read (Daily + Intraday)

1) Market structure & trend (Daily)

Primary trend: clearly bearish. Price has fallen from the mid-140s (Jan) into the high-70s (Feb).
Swing sequence: consistent lower highs / lower lows since ~2026-01-13 (peak ~147).
Impulse leg: 2026-01-29 → 2026-02-06 shows a sharp liquidation-style move (117 → 78 low ~68.7) with very high volume, typical of a distribution breakdown.
Current location vs prior support: the market is now trading in the same zone as the early-Feb capitulation area (roughly 77–90).

Implication: the higher-timeframe tape is still bearish; rallies tend to be sold until proven otherwise (structure break + reclaim of key averages).

2) Support / resistance mapping (Price action levels)

Using recent daily OHLC clusters and breakdown points:

Major resistance (sell supply likely):

82.8–85.5: prior daily closes/support (Feb 20–22) now overhead resistance; today’s breakdown from ~82.8 is important.
86.6–88.8: multiple recent highs (Feb 14, Feb 21) → strong supply.
91.0: psychological + prior swing area.

Key support (where bids may appear):

77.2–77.8: today’s intraday lows and the lower edge of the current range.
76.7–78.3: cluster from Feb 11–13 closes/lows.
68.7–70.0: Feb 06 capitulation low region (major downside magnet if 77 fails).

Implication: price is currently below an important pivot (82–85). That makes rebounds into 82–85 attractive to sellers.

3) Candle / pattern read

Daily candle context (last two sessions):

2026-02-22 close ~82.79 after failing to extend above ~85.48.
2026-02-23 (so far) traded down to ~77.29 and is currently ~78.37.

This is effectively a breakdown day from the 82–85 balance area, with a push back into the lower support band.

Intraday (hourly) structure today:

Early hours: sharp drop from ~82.8 → ~77.7.
Mid-session: rebound to ~80.8.
Later: failed to hold above ~79–80 and rotated back to ~78.4.

This creates a bear flag / descending consolidation feel intraday: bounce was sold, and price is holding near the lows.

4) Volume & volatility (context clues)

Daily volumes during the Feb selloff were extremely elevated (e.g., Feb 05–06 very high), indicating forced selling / high volatility regime.
Today’s daily volume (partial day but already large) suggests active distribution rather than a quiet drift.

Implication: In high-vol regimes, support breaks can travel quickly to the next liquidity pocket (here: 77 then 69–70).

5) Moving averages (trend confirmation, qualitative)

Even without exact MA computation, the distance from January prices implies:

Price is almost certainly below the 20D/50D/200D.
Recent bounces (into 86–89) failed, consistent with bear-market rally behavior.

Implication: trend-following systems remain short-biased until price reclaims and holds above the 82–85 pivot and then 86–89.

6) RSI / momentum (probabilistic)

Given the magnitude of the decline (mid-140s to high-70s), daily RSI has likely been weak / below midline for weeks, with occasional relief rallies.

However, after extended down moves, the market can become short-term oversold, increasing the chance of a bounce.

Implication: downside is favored, but entry selection matters: chasing at 78 can be poor; better to sell into resistance (82–85) or after a clean break of 77.

7) Scenario building for next 24 hours

Base case (higher probability): continuation / retest lower support

Price remains capped below 79.5–80.8 and especially below 82.8–85.
A drift lower / retest of 77.2–77.8 occurs.
If 77 breaks with momentum, next travel zone becomes 74 → 72, with tail risk to 70–69.

Alternate case (lower probability): relief bounce

If 77 holds and buyers reclaim 80.7–81.0, a squeeze could test 82.8–84.6.
But given the structure, that zone is more likely to be sold than to start a sustained reversal.

Net 24h bias: bearish-to-neutral, with expectation of either (a) a retest of 77 and possible break, or (b) a rebound that stalls under 83–85.

8) Trade plan logic (why Sell is favored)

Market is in a dominant downtrend (daily structure).
Today showed a breakdown from 82–85 and acceptance below 80.
Intraday rebound attempts are getting sold; price is sitting near lows.

Therefore: prefer Sell (short), ideally on a pullback into resistance to improve reward/risk.

24h price movement prediction

Expected range: 76.8 to 83.0 (wide due to volatility).
Most likely path: small bounce → rejection below 82 → fade back toward 77.