SOL at the cliff: Sell the bounce into 135, aim for a weekend flush to 128.6

Overview and bias

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Current price: $132.32 (as of 2025-12-05 21:51 UTC)
• 24h view: Short-term bounce risk exists, but dominant signals favor further downside toward the $128–$130 support zone. My base case anticipates an early, shallow recovery attempt that fails below $136, followed by continuation lower into prior liquidity and support.

Step-by-step, multi-technique analysis

1. Market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher time frame (Daily, Sep→Dec): Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from mid‑Sept highs (> $240) to today. Rallies (e.g., 12/01–12/03) have been retracements within a broader downtrend.
• Intermediate pivots: 11/11 swing high ~171.6, 12/01 swing low $126.71, 12/03 relief rally peak $145.73, followed by 12/04–12/05 two-day selloff back toward the lower third of the 11/21–12/05 range. Structure remains bearish below $145–$147.
• Intraday (Hourly, last 24–36h): Breakdown from the overnight high ~140.35, accelerating to an intraday low ~131.17, with bounces failing to reclaim 133–134. Supply is active on upticks.

2. Trend diagnostics (moving averages)

• 20D SMA (approx): ~137–138. Price is below and slope has turned down after the 12/03 pop—bearish.
• 50D SMA: Well above (~>170), sharply downward sloping—reinforces macro downtrend.
• Short-term EMAs (5D vs 20D): The 5D has rolled over and is crossing back below the 20D after the 12/03 spike—typical of failed mean-reversion rallies in downtrends.

3. Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stoch)

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid- to high-40s earlier this week, now slipping toward/below 40 after two consecutive down days—bearish momentum rebuilding. Not deeply oversold yet on daily, leaving room to the downside before strong mean-reversion triggers.
• Hourly RSI: Pressed near/under 30 during the flush to 131. A minor bounce is possible, but trend can keep intraday RSI pinned for extended periods.
• Daily MACD: Histogram peaked and is rolling down; a bear cross or widening negative histogram is likely if price remains below the 20D SMA—supports further downside.
• Stochastic: Oversold on intraday; can stay oversold in trends. Any stochastic uptick likely fades under $136 resistance.

4. Volatility (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~7–9. Current day’s true range fits within that. This allows for a move to $128–$129 in a single session without unusual volatility.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~137–138; lower band likely ~125–127. Price is trading below the mid, headed toward the lower band, consistent with trend continuation.

5. Fibonacci mapping and confluence

• Daily swing (11/11 ~171.6 high → 12/01 $126.71 low):
  • 38.2%: ~143.9; 50%: ~149.2; 61.8%: ~154.5.
  • The 12/03 high at $145.73 effectively tagged the 38.2% and rejected—textbook bearish retracement.
• Short swing (12/01 $126.71 → 12/03 $145.73): Range 19.02.
  • 50%: 136.22; 61.8%: 134.94; 78.6%: 131.34.
  • Price has broken below 61.8% and is hovering near the 78.6% ($131.3). Losing 78.6% often leads to a full retrace toward the origin (~$126.7) before the next larger decision point. Confluence: 78.6% aligns with intraday low $131.17.
• Intraday downswing (12/05 high ~140.35 → low ~131.17): Range 9.18.
  • 38.2% retrace: ~134.68; 50%: ~135.76; 61.8%: ~136.85.
  • Ideal short “sell-the-bounce” zone sits ~$134.7–$136.9. Until price reclaims that pocket, bounces are countertrend and fadeable.

6. Support/Resistance and order blocks

• Resistance layers: 134.7–136.9 (intraday fib pocket), 138–140 (20D SMA/mid-BB and recent close zone), 143–146 (daily resistance and 38.2% of the larger swing).
• Support layers: 131.2–132.0 (intraday 78.6% + today’s low zone), 130.7 (11/23 close), 128.5 (11/21 close), 126.7 (12/01 low), 123.3 (12/01 intraday low).
• Expect liquidity sweeps below 131 and 130, with first high-probability basing attempts near 128.5–127.2.

7. Volume, OBV, and profile

• Daily: Rising volume on down days (12/04–12/05) vs 12/03 up day suggests distribution after the relief rally.
• Intraday: Heavy 16:00 UTC hour sell volume coincided with the largest down candle; subsequent hours show weak demand. OBV slope turning down—confirms supply dominance.
• Volume profile (qualitative): High-volume node around 138–140 (now overhead resistance) and developing acceptance lower near 130–132. Price migration toward the lower node implies acceptance of lower value and raises odds of a further test into 128–127 where prior activity clustered.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price is below Conversion and Base lines and below cloud. Cloud likely red and above price. Classic bearish state—rallies into the Kijun/Cloud are sells unless a strong reversal develops (no evidence yet).

9. Candlestick/price action read

• 12/03 printed a strong up candle that failed to follow through; 12/04 produced a selloff candle; 12/05 undercuts and closes weak. The sequence resembles a bull trap/failed breakout and continuation lower.
• On the hourly, several small-bodied candles near 132–133 after the capitulatory leg imply a pause within a down move rather than a reversal (no decisive bullish engulfing or reversal structure).

10. Pivot points (12/04 reference: H 146.72, L 138.07, C 139.01)

• Pivot P ≈ 141.27; S1 ≈ 135.82; S2 ≈ 132.62; S3 ≈ 127.17; R1 ≈ 144.47; R2 ≈ 149.92.
• Price is below S2 (~132.62), and the next classical target is S3 (~127.17), aligning with the 12/01 low region.

11. Elliott-style micro count (heuristic)

• A relief rally (A) from 126.7 to 145.7, B pullback to ~139 on 12/04, and a failed C continuation attempt early 12/05 that rolled over into a new impulsive leg lower (i) → (ii) → (iii) in progress. Wave (iii) targets typically extend 1.272–1.618 of the prior leg—in confluence with $128–$126 area from other tools.

12. Wyckoff lens

• 12/03 looks like Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) relative to the 140–146 zone; 12/04 Sign of Weakness (SoW) through 139–138; 12/05 Lower high/LPSY behavior intraday near 133–134. Next phase usually is Markdown toward the prior support shelf (128–127), with potential spring below 126 if momentum accelerates.

13. Risk, invalidation, and scenario planning (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early bounce stalls 134.5–135.8 (fib 38–50% of intraday downswing), then continuation lower to 129–130 with a liquidity probe toward 128.6. Close near 129–131.
• Bear extension (25%): Weak or no bounce; breakdown below 131 leads to swift test of 128.6, overshoot to 127.2 (pivot S3) and possible tag of 126.7. Rebound late session to ~129–130.
• Bull surprise (20%): Strong reclaim above 136.9 and daily close above 138 flips momentum short term; squeeze toward 140–143 possible. This would threaten the short thesis; above ~140.3–141.0, bears lose tactical control.

14. Execution logic

• Short entries are favored into resistance: the 134.7–136.9 pocket offers best expectancy. Given current price near 132, a conservative approach is to either:
  • Place a limit sell in the 134.5–135.0 zone to “sell the rip,” or
  • Use a market/stop entry on breakdown through 131.0 if bounce does not materialize.
• Profit target: First take-profit near $128.6 (confluence: prior support + pre‑S3), with potential runner to $127.2 if momentum persists. For the purposes of a single target, $128.6 balances probability and reward.
• Invalidation: A sustained reclaim and hourly close above ~136.9, or a daily close back above ~140.3–141.0, would materially weaken the short setup.

15. Summary of signals

• Trend: Bearish (daily and hourly)
• Momentum: Turning/firmly bearish (RSI, MACD)
• Volatility: Adequate to reach $128–$129 within a session
• Key levels: Resistance 134.7–136.9 and 138–140; Supports 131.2, 130.7, 128.5, 127.2, 126.7
• Confluence: Fibonacci (multiple frames), pivots (S2→S3), moving averages, volume profile, Wyckoff

24-hour price path expectation

• Likely path: Attempted bounce to 133.5–135.5 early → rejection → slide to 129–130 → spike low toward 128.6 before stabilizing. Risk of deeper extension to 127.2 if liquidity runs accelerate. A reclaim above 136.9 would defer downside and open 138–140.

Actionable takeaway

• Bias: Sell the bounce. The optimal trade is a short entry into 134.5–135.0 with a take-profit at 128.6. If bounce fails to occur, a breakdown sell below 131 is the contingency (not encoded in the single-price output).