SOL: Tactical Dip-Buy Into 137–138 After Weekend Base and 1h Breakout

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (counter-trend bounce) with pullbacks. Expect chop higher into 135–138 if 131.5–132.0 holds.
• Optimal plan: Buy a dip toward 132.2 with the intention to exit into 137–138 resistance.
• Invalidation: A decisive hourly close back below ~129.8 would negate the setup and reopen 127.5 → 125.4 downside.

Context and multi-timeframe read

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Current price: 133.13
• Timeframe mix used: Daily (swing), 4h/1h (tactical), 15m (entry timing via structure/levels inferred from 1h microstructure)
• Recent path: A prolonged daily downtrend from the 240s–250s in mid-Sep to a capitulation low 122.27 (Nov 21), followed by a weekend base 127–130 and an intraday advance to 133.07 (Nov 23). Today’s 1h prints show a series of higher lows from 127.6 → 129.3 → 130.8 → 131.3 → 132.1 and a breakout to 133.1.

Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Lower highs/lows since early Oct. Large impulsive sell legs on Oct 10 and throughout early/mid-Nov; the pace slowed the last 2–3 sessions. Friday (Nov 21) printed a large-range day with a deep lower wick (122.3→128.5 close), and Saturday (Nov 22) a small-bodied candle near 127.6—an early basing attempt. Today (Nov 23) reclaimed 132–133 intraday, marking the first meaningful HH on the 1h since the base formed.
• Hourly structure (Nov 23):
  • Asian/early session grind 128–131, then higher low sequences: 129.3 → 130.7 → 131.3 → 132.1.
  • HHs: 130.6 → 131.45 → 132.75 → 133.07. Classic stair-step uptrend day with shallow pullbacks and controlled ranges—typical of a short-covering bounce.
• Support/resistance map (spot levels from recent OHLCs):
  • Supports: 131.7–132.0 (hourly pivot band), 130.7 (intraday HL), 129.3 (intraday HL), 127.6 (session base/Nov 23 open area), 125.4 (Nov 22 low).
  • Resistances: 133.5 (Nov 20 close 133.52), 136.8 (Nov 19 close), 140.7 (Nov 18 close), 142.5 (Nov 19 high zone), 146–147 (Ichimoku/MA confluence estimate), 153 (23.6% retrace of the larger Oct swing down).

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMAs (approximations from provided closes):
  • 7-day SMA ≈ 133.0. Price ~ at/just above it—a first step toward stabilization.
  • 20-day SMA ≈ mid-140s to ~150 (due to prior higher prints). Price well below → primary trend remains down.
  • 50-day SMA ≈ high-180s/near-190s. Steeply above → bearish higher timeframe regime.
• Hourly EMAs: Price riding above fast EMAs (8/21) for most of today, with pullbacks bought near the 8/21 ribbon—intraday trend supportive for a continuation into overhead daily resistances.
• Takeaway: Higher timeframe trend = bearish; lower timeframe (1h) = bullish. Expect mean reversion pop within a larger downtrend, not a trend reversal—so targets should be modest and tactical.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, 14): Likely still sub-50, improving from mid-30s/upper-30s toward low-40s after the weekend bounce—supports rebound but not a full regime shift.
• RSI (hourly): Running ~55–65 intraday during the stair-step advance; pullbacks toward 40–45 on dips have been bought. This pattern often precedes another push to test prior intraday highs or the next daily resistance cluster.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with flattening histogram—bearish regime but losing downside momentum.
• MACD (hourly): Crossed above zero earlier in the session; positive slope—supports continuation after shallow retraces.
• Takeaway: Momentum breadth is aligned with a tactical bounce but capped by daily bearish context.

Volatility and range analysis

• ATR (daily 14 est.): ~10–12. A 24h move of 3–6 is reasonable in a normal session; 8–12 possible if volatility expands.
• Today’s hourly ranges are controlled; volatility contracted early then expanded toward the NY/EU overlap—often a good launchpad for a measured move higher into Monday liquidity.
• Expectation: One more push to test the 136.5–138 band within 24h if 131.5–132.0 continues to act as a floor.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2 approximate): Mid-band near the 20SMA (~145–150). Price recently tagged the lower band (low 120s) and is now bouncing toward the mid of lower-to-mid band zone. Mean reversion bias favors additional upside room before the mid-band acts as a cap.
• Hourly BB: Price hugging the upper band on thrusts and consolidating near middle band on dips—classic bullish walk up pattern intraday. Room to ride another upper-band tag toward 134.5–136 before consolidation.

Ichimoku (trend and equilibrium)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan likely ~145 and Kijun higher—bearish regime. However, a Tenkan reversion is typical after capitulation; the first step is reclaiming short-term equilibrium (intraday Tenkan/Kijun). We’re early in that process.
• Hourly: Price above Tenkan and Kijun with bullish TK cross intraday; thin cloud overhead into 134–136 suggests a test is feasible before thicker resistance near 140–142.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing Oct 29 high (~201.7) to Nov 21 low (122.3):
  • 23.6% ≈ 141.0
  • 38.2% ≈ 152.6
  • 50% ≈ 161.5
  • 61.8% ≈ 170.4
• Current price 133.1 sits below the first retrace (141). Typical behavior post-capitulation is to at least probe the 23.6%–38.2% area over days; in the next 24h, a modest progression toward 136–138 is consistent with a stepwise move toward 141 if momentum sustains.

Classical patterns and candle signals

• Daily: Friday’s long-range down candle with a long lower wick followed by small-bodied Saturday print near prior lows is an early sign of selling exhaustion. Today’s reclaim of 132+ adds confirmation for a relief bounce.
• Intraday: Micro bull flags and breakouts on 1h (132.75 breakout) suggest momentum traders are pressing into the close; pullbacks have been shallow—another hallmark of short covering.

Market profile / pivot analysis

• Traditional daily pivots (based on 11/22 H/L/C ~129.64/125.40/127.55):
  • Pivot ≈ 127.53
  • R1 ≈ 129.66
  • R2 ≈ 131.77
  • R3 ≈ 133.89
• Price is above R2 and probing toward R3 late session—often leads to either (a) a squeeze into R3 then a fade to R2, or (b) an early pullback toward R2/R1 which offers a dip-buy zone before the next leg higher. This favors planning a limit buy on a retrace to ~132.0–132.2 (the overlap of R2 band with intraday HLs).

VWAP / mean-reversion intraday

• Session VWAP (inferred) sits below spot near 130.5–131.0 given the sustained advance; price trading above VWAP with higher lows indicates buyers in control. Dips that tag or slightly undercut an anchored VWAP to the US session typically attract responsive buyers in a short-covering environment.

Wyckoff lens

• Phase A: Selling Climax (SC) likely on 11/21 near 122.3 with high volume and long wick.
• Phase B: Building cause 127–133 over the weekend with secondary tests up to 133.
• Expectation: An Automatic Rally (AR) toward the first meaningful daily resistance band (136–141) before a more complex range carves out. Today’s structure aligns with early Phase B/AR.

Elliott wave (tactical)

• From the 127.6 low (today) a 5-wave intraday impulse is plausible: 1) 127.6→130.6, 2) pullback to 129.3, 3) 129.3→132.75, 4) 132.75→131.3, 5) 131.3→133.1. A standard post-impulse ABC dip could retest 132.0–132.2 before an extension toward 134.5–136.5. This informs the dip-buy entry.

Volume analysis

• The largest volumes in the series occurred on down days (distribution), but the last two sessions saw decreasing downside follow-through and improved upticks on rallies—early accumulation or at least aggressive short covering. Today’s upticks were achieved on expanding 1h prints vs. the sleepy weekend base, supporting continuation.

Risk management and scenarios

• Bull case (preferred, 60%): Pullback toward 132.0–132.2 (prior breakout shelf/R2 band), then extension into 135.5–138.0 within 24h. A further stretch could wick to 138.5 but fades are likely on the first test.
• Base case path: 132.2 buy → 134.5 intraday test → brief consolidation → 136.8–137.8 target zone.
• Bear case (40%): Failure to hold 131.5–132.0 on the first dip; loss of 130.7 opens 129.3. A daily close back below 129.8 reasserts the downtrend with 127.6 then 125.4 in play.
• Invalidation for the long idea: Sustained 1h close <129.8.

Confluence at the proposed entry and target

• Entry ~132.2: aligns with hourly R2 band, prior breakout shelf, intraday rising EMA cluster, and typical ABC post-impulse retrace depth.
• Target ~137.8: sits just below the 136.8 daily resistance and within the 137–138 supply zone, maximizing fill probability while front-running heavier offers. Also inside the day’s realistic ATR extension.

Time-of-week considerations

• Sunday evening into Monday UTC often brings liquidity pick-up and continuation of intraday trends established during the weekend grind. With structure already bullish on 1h, a Monday follow-through to the next resistance band is a reasonable expectation.

Synthesis and decision

• Despite the prevailing bearish daily regime, multiple short-term tools align for a tactical long: bullish 1h structure, improving momentum, R2→R3 progression, post-capitulation mean reversion bias, and a well-defined invalidation. The trade aims to capture a measured bounce into nearby daily resistance, not a trend reversal.

Plan summary (tactical)

• Action: Buy dip.
• Entry: 132.2 (limit), allow modest slippage.
• Target: 137.8 (scale-out or full exit near first touch).
• Invalidation (not part of order fields, but critical): 129.8 1h close.

Forecast next 24h

• Baseline path: 132.2 → 134.5 → 136.5–137.8, with intraday pullbacks of 0.8–1.5 typical. Probability-weighted expectation favors a grind higher into resistance rather than a straight-line move.
• Alternative: If 132 never prints, a momentum continuation entry could be considered on a clean 1h close above 133.6 targeting 136–137, but the risk/reward is less attractive than the planned dip-buy.

Bottom line: Buy the dip to 132.2 for a tactical push into 137–138; respect invalidation below 129.8.