SOL at the Cliff: Sell the Bounce into 142, Aim for 131 Before the Next Leg Down

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis for SOL/USD (current price: $137.59)

1. Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Primary trend: Bearish since mid-September. After peaking near $253 (Sep 18), price has formed a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows: ~243 → 236 → 234 → 229 → 224 → 205 → 200 → 194 → 171 → 156 → 144. The Nov 21 low at $128.50 established the current swing low; the bounce to $144.47 (Nov 26) is a lower high.
• Distribution signature: Down days are accompanied by higher volume (e.g., Nov 3–4, Nov 10–14, Nov 21), while up days in late Nov have comparatively lighter volume — classic distribution/relief-rally behavior.
• Conclusion: The dominant daily trend is down; the late-Nov bounce appears corrective.

2. Moving averages (Daily)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~142.4. Price ($137.6) trades below the 20-SMA → short-term bearish.
• 50-day SMA (approx): still elevated in the 160–180 zone given prior higher prices → price is well below, confirming a medium-term downtrend.
• 10-day EMA (approx): ~139–140; price is below → momentum tilts bearish.
• Signal: Rallies into 20-SMA/10-EMA are likely sold.

3. RSI, Stoch RSI, and momentum

• Daily RSI (14): Estimated mid-40s (44–47). Not oversold; room to move down before reaching capitulation levels.
• Hourly RSI: Hovering mid-30s to low-40s after today’s intraday selloff; potential for a modest bounce, but no confirmed bullish divergence across multiple swings.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero line; histogram contracted during the late-Nov bounce and is curling lower again → momentum turning bearish again.
• Stoch RSI (Hourly): Near oversold and attempting to curl up — supportive of a relief bounce before further weakness.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily middle band (20-SMA) near ~$142.4; upper ~mid-150s; lower ~low-130s.
• Current price sits between middle and lower band, skewed to the lower half. A minor mean-reversion bounce back toward the middle band (~$142) is plausible, but primary trend pressure remains lower.

5. Ichimoku Cloud (Daily; approximate)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period mid of high/low): High ($144.47) and low ($127.55) of last 9 → Tenkan ≈ (144.47+127.55)/2 ≈ $136.0.
• Kijun-sen (26-period mid): 26-day high/low roughly 188.74/125.40 → Kijun ≈ (188.74+125.40)/2 ≈ $157.1.
• Price is below the Kijun and well below the Cloud, with a likely bearish Cloud ahead → strong downtrend context.
• Note: Price is hovering just above Tenkan (~$136). A clean daily close below Tenkan strengthens immediate downside risk.

6. Fibonacci analysis

• Local swing (Nov 21 low $127.55 to Nov 26 high $144.47): • 50% retrace: $136.01 • 61.8% retrace: $138.00 Current price ~$137.6 is straddling the golden pocket zone ($136–$138). This is a pivotal area: either a short-lived bounce occurs, or a decisive breakdown opens $133–$131 next.
• Larger swing (Nov 3 local high ~$188.7 to Nov 21 low ~$128.5): • 38.2%: ~$151.5 • 50%: ~$158.6 • 61.8%: $165.7 The late-Nov bounce failed to even tag 38.2% ($151.5), reflecting weak retracement strength and confirming bearish control.

7. Volume profile and OBV/MFI (qualitative)

• OBV trend: Sloping down since early Nov, consistent with net distribution.
• MFI: Likely neutral to bearish (mid-zone), reflecting neither spree of fresh accumulation nor extreme outflows at this exact moment; that said, prior selloffs attracted heavier volume than rebounds → sellers in control on the bigger time frame.

8. ADX/DI and trend strength (Daily, approximate)

• ADX ~26–30 with -DI above +DI. This suggests a prevailing, moderately strong downtrend that favors short setups on rallies.

9. Parabolic SAR and regression channel

• Parabolic SAR dots likely above price on daily → bearish.
• A linear regression channel (last 30–60 sessions) slopes downward; price is clustered in the lower half → continuation bias.

10. Classic pivots (derived from Nov 27 H/L/C: 144.1732 / 140.6958 / 140.8464)

• Pivot P ≈ 141.905
• R1 ≈ 143.114; R2 ≈ 145.383
• S1 ≈ 139.637; S2 ≈ 138.428; S3 ≈ 136.160
• Today’s action respected this ladder: sold below P, slipped past S1/S2 and now oscillates above S3 ($136.16). This aligns with the Fibonacci golden pocket and Tenkan ($136) — a high-stakes zone.

11. Intraday (Hourly) micro-structure

• Today’s rally attempts into 142–143 were rejected with increasing supply (14:00–15:00 UTC hour showed heavy selling into strength). Subsequent lower highs and the drop to ~$137 signal sellers remain active.
• Possible minor base forming around 137–138, but without confirmation (higher low + higher high), the path of least resistance is still lower after any bounce.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag scenario: The bounce from $127.55 to $144.47 resembles a two- to four-day flag against the dominant downtrend, which now appears to be breaking down back toward prior supports.
• No high-quality bullish reversal pattern on daily yet (no hammer with follow-through, no engulfing reversal, no rounded base). Hourly shows tentative stabilization but not confirmed trend change.

13. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance: 141.9–143.1 (daily pivot P→R1), 144.5 (Nov 26 high), 145.4 (R2), 150–152 (38.2% of the larger downswing), 155–156 (supply shelf).
• Support: 138.4 (S2), 136.2 (S3), 135.6 (Nov 26 low), 133.5 (Nov 20 close), 131.4–130.8 (Nov 18–23 zone), 128.5 (Nov 21 low), 125.4 (Nov 22 intraday low).

14. ATR and expected 24-hour range

• Daily ATR(14) estimated ~8–10. From $137.6, a reasonable 24-hour realized range is $132–$145. Given momentum, the distribution is skewed lower: base case $134–$142, with tails $131–$144.

15. VWAP considerations

• Anchored VWAP from the Nov 21 low likely resides around $139–$140; price is currently below/near it, consistent with intraday selling pressure capping rallies near 140–142.

16. Elliott Wave framing (heuristic)

• A: Impulsive decline into Nov 21 → potential Wave 3 end.
• B: Corrective bounce to Nov 26 (~$144.47) → likely Wave 4.
• C: Resumption lower toward prior lows (Wave 5) → target window $125–$133 over coming sessions. This supports a tactical short on bounces.

17. Next 24-hour probability-weighted path

• Base case (60%): Minor bounce toward $140.5–$142.5 (pivot P/R1, VWAP), then fade to retest $136–$135; if that snaps, extension to $133–$131.
• Bull case (25%): A stronger squeeze through $143–$144.5; a daily close above ~$145.5 would challenge the immediate bearish thesis and open $150–$152.
• Bear acceleration (15%): Immediate breakdown through $136 without a meaningful bounce, prompting a swift push into $133–$131; possible test of $129–$128 if liquidity thins.

18. Trade plan and risk management

• Directional bias: Short rallies in a downtrend; use the 141.9–143.1 zone as an optimal supply area with tight risk.
• Entry (limit sell): Around $141.90 (pivot P and prior intraday supply confluence). This balances fill probability (given likely mean reversion bounce) and risk.
• Stop (discipline, not in fields): Above $145.30 (beyond R2 and the 11/26 high), invalidating the immediate bearish setup.
• Take profit (primary): $131.20 (just above the $130.8 structural shelf to secure fills before the bid cluster). Secondary targets for active management could be staged at $136.2 and $133.5, but the single defined close here focuses on $131.2.
• Risk/Reward snapshot: Entry 141.9, stop 145.3 (risk ≈ 3.4), target 131.2 (reward ≈ 10.7) → R:R ≈ 3.1:1, favorable.

19. Why not buy here?

• Although $136–$138 is a Fibonacci/Tenkan confluence that can produce a bounce, the larger structure (lower-highs, sub-20/50 MAs, bearish MACD, distribution volume) favors selling rallies. A long would be counter-trend and require a strong reclaim/close above $145.5 to signal trend change odds improving.

Bottom line

• Short-term: Expect a bounce attempt into $140–$142.5; use it to position short.
• Trend: Bearish until daily closes reclaim and hold above mid-$140s with improving breadth/momentum.
• 24h forecast: Choppy to lower; likely range $134–$142, with risk of breakdown to $131 if $136 fails.

Note: Crypto is volatile. Use position sizing and hard stops; reassess if price accepts above $145.5 with volume.