SOL’s Bear-Market Bounce Into a Wall: Short the 140–142 Confluence, Aim for 134

Deep multi-timeframe technical read on SOL (next 24h)

Context and structure (daily)

• Trend: Since the mid-September peak (~253), SOL has been in a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The October 10 break (~221 to ~189) accelerated downside momentum; the November 21 swing low at ~122.27 marks the latest capitulation. The last three sessions show a rebound from 122.27 → 138.37 (11/24) → 137.36 (current), i.e., a bounce within a larger downtrend.
• Key daily levels:
  • Supports: 133.5–135.0 (intraday shelf from 11/25), 130.7 (11/23 close), 128.5 (11/21 close), 122.3 (swing low).
  • Resistances: 140.3–141.0 (0.382 retrace of 122.3→170.2 and 11/18 close/11/20 high zone), 144.3 (11/20 high), 146.3 (0.236 of 122.3→224.3), 150–152 (0.618 of 122.3→170.2), 155–167 (prior supply band).

Intraday (hourly, 11/25)

• Structure: Morning bleed 138.6 → 133.54 (14:00 UTC low), then higher-low progression into the US session, closing ~137.36.
• Pattern: A small intraday inverse head-and-shoulders may be forming: left shoulder ~135.65 (08:00), head ~133.54 (14:00), right shoulder ~136.56 (18:00); neckline ~137.8. Measured move projects +4.2 → 142 potential, but overhead daily resistance clusters below/around that (140–142), implying limited follow-through before supply.
• Liquidity/pivots (computed from today’s provisional H/L/C: H 138.84, L 133.54, C 137.36):
  • Pivot P ≈ 136.58, R1 ≈ 139.62, R2 ≈ 141.88, S1 ≈ 134.32, S2 ≈ 131.28. These align tightly with the technical map (R1 near 0.382 from 122.3→170.2, R2 near 141.8 confluence; S1 ~134.3, S2 ~131.3).
• VWAP: Estimated around the mid-136s to high-136s; price reclaimed and is hovering modestly above, consistent with a corrective intraday bid but not a trend reversal.

Momentum and oscillators (daily)

• RSI(14): Approx ~36–37 after the bounce (calculated from the last 14 closes). This is still below the 40–45 “bearish zone cap” and below neutral 50, indicating bear-market-rally conditions. A push to 140–142 could nudge RSI toward 40–42; sustained reversal would require >50.
• Stochastic (daily): Emerging from oversold but not yet overbought. In bear regimes, stoch upswings often fail near the mid-zone unless trend flips.
• MACD (12/26/9): Signal remains negative; histogram likely improving toward less negative. This usually supports countertrend bounces into resistance before sellers reassert.
• CMF/OBV (qualitative): Distribution dominated since October; the last 3–4 sessions show stabilization/uptick but not enough to indicate accumulation. Volume on down legs has been heavier than on up legs.

Trend/means and volatility (daily)

• SMA20 ≈ 145.2 (computed) — price below the mid-band, so rallies toward 145 are likely sold unless reclaimed decisively.
• SMA50 (visual inference) declining, well above price; confirms medium-term downtrend.
• EMA alignment (qualitative): Short-term EMAs curling up, still beneath medium EMAs; bear alignment not yet negated.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band ~145.2. The 11/21 low likely probed the lower band; current price is between lower band and mid-band, a classic bear-rally zone. Rejections often occur before touching the mid-band in strong downtrends unless momentum builds.
• Keltner Channels: With ATR elevated, price is below the 20EMA centerline; rallies to the centerline often stall in bear phases.
• ATR(14) (qualitative): Elevated single-digit to low double-digit daily ranges; today’s session range ~5.3 shows compression after the 11/21–11/24 expansion. Compression beneath resistance frequently precedes a fade unless broken with volume.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below the Cloud; Cloud likely thick overhead (160–180). Tenkan (9) roughly around mid-130s; Kijun (26) estimated mid-160s. Price > Tenkan but << Kijun: classic bear rally. Chikou below price and below Cloud adds to bearish bias. A Tenkan touch/reclaim happened; Kijun remains far above — rejection pressure expected below it.

Fibonacci confluences

• From 11/10 swing high 170.15 → 11/21 low 122.27:
  • 0.382 = ~140.34 (first meaningful retrace; often resistance in weak bounces).
  • 0.5 = ~146.21 (near SMA20 and prior supply), 0.618 = ~151.6 (deeper corrective cap). Current price hasn’t reclaimed 0.382 yet → bounce still “weak” by fib standards.
• From 10/10 break (224.25) → 11/21 low (122.27):
  • 0.236 ≈ 146.3; 0.382 ≈ 160.3. Even the 0.236 sits above near-term resistance — underscores magnitude of overhead supply.

Market structure / pattern analysis

• Daily market structure: Still lower highs/lows. To signal a structural daily change, SOL must first reclaim 144.3–146.3 (local highs + 0.236), then build above 150–152. Below these, rallies are more likely supply tests than trend reversals.
• Falling wedge (daily): A plausible wedge from October peaks into the 11/21 low. A proper breakout would require a forceful move through 140–144 and then 146 with volume; at present we’re in the “attempting upper boundary retest” phase.
• Candles: 11/24 posted a strong up day; 11/25 is shaping like a small-bodied indecision/spinning top under resistance — often a pause before either a final push into resistance or a fade. Given confluence at 139.6–141.9, a final push and rejection is favored.

Volume/flow nuances

• Distribution vs accumulation: Down legs (10/10, 11/3–11/4, 11/13–11/21) came with heavier volume than the up legs. The last three days’ recovery volume is moderate — more consistent with short-covering and mean-reversion than with sustainable accumulation.
• Intraday volumes (hourly) show the bulk of participation around the selloff and the US-session bounce; however, several hours reflect missing/low prints, so caution in overfitting intraday volume.

DeMark/Exhaustion (qualitative)

• After the 11/21 low, a short-term exhaustion print is plausible; the ensuing 2–4 day bounce aligns with a typical TD9/TD buy pause. These often fail into the 0.382–0.5 retrace unless momentum inflects.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Five-wave decline from October culminated at 11/21 (wave 5). Current move likely an ABC corrective rally: A = 122→140, B = 140→133 (intraday today), C = 133→140–142 into the next session. Under this view, the C completion near 140–142 is a sell zone, with another downswing thereafter.

Confluence map for the next 24h

• Upside magnets: Pivot R1 ~139.6, Fib 0.382 (122→170) ~140.34, neckline breakout target ~141–142, Pivot R2 ~141.9. This band (139.6–141.9) is thick with resistance.
• Downside magnets: S1 ~134.3, prior intraday low shelf 133.5, S2 ~131.3, and then 130.7 daily close.
• Bias: Short-term (intra-24h) path of least resistance is a push into 139.6–141.9, then rejection toward 134–135. The larger daily trend remains down; until 144–146 is reclaimed, rallies are sellable.

Risk management and execution plan

• Trade idea: Fade the bounce into 139.6–141.9.
• Entry: Prefer a patient limit in the resistance cluster; optimal risk/reward is near 139.9–140.8.
• Stop (discipline, not asked but critical): Above the cluster and the measured move — e.g., 142.2–142.6. A 4h close above 142.5 with strong volume invalidates the short-for-24h idea and opens 144–146.
• Take-profit: First target 134.3–134.8 (S1/structure). Stretch target 133.3 (under the shelf); aggressive extension 131.5 (S2) only if momentum turns decisively risk-off.
• Position sizing: Given ATR and crypto volatility, size for a ~2.3–2.7 risk to pursue ~6–8 reward (R:R ~2.5–3.0).

Scenario probabilities (24h)

• Primary: Rollover after a final nudge into 139.6–141.9, fade to 134–135 — 55%.
• Secondary: Range day between 136–140 (no fill or small dip) — 30%.
• Tertiary: Break and hold above 142 → squeeze to 144–146 — 15% (stop gets hit; trend change attempt).

Why “Sell (Short)” here?

• Price is below SMA20/SMA50/Cloud; RSI < 40; MACD negative; CMF/OBV unimpressive.
• Immediate confluence of resistance: Fib 0.382, pivot R1/R2, recent swing highs, and the measured move objective of the intraday inverse H&S all stack in the 139.6–141.9 zone.
• Mean-reversion within a dominant downtrend: Bear-market rallies typically stall into 0.382–0.5 retraces before another leg down.

Validation/invalidation checklist

• Bearish validation: Rejection wicks in 139.6–141.9, 1h close back below 138.8, loss of VWAP, momentum rollover on 15–60m RSI/MACD → look for 134–135 test.
• Invalidation: Strong 1–4h closes above 142.2 with rising volume; then the target becomes 144.3–146.3 and the short thesis is invalid for this 24h window.

Bottom line (24h): Expect a push into 139.6–141.9, then a fade to 134–135. Optimal plan is to place a short limit around 139.9 with take-profit near 133.6. This aligns with multi-tool confluence and preserves favorable risk-reward.