SOL’s Weekend Relief Rally Setup: Buying the Pullback for a Push Toward 197

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis for SOL over the next 24 hours

Context and tape read

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Timestamp: 2025-10-18 21:00 UTC (Saturday, thinner weekend liquidity)
• Last price: 186.99
• Recent regime: Sharp risk-off shock on 2025-10-10 (capitulation candle), rebound to 208 on 10/13, then a controlled bleed and retest of crash-epoch lows (10/17) with improving intraday structure on 10/18.

Market structure and price action

• Trend state (daily): After peaking mid-September near 253, SOL entered a medium-term downtrend. The drop accelerated on 10/10 (high 224.25, low 174.07, close 188.66, largest volume in the sample), suggestive of capitulation. A dead-cat bounce to 208 (10/13) failed below clustered resistance 209–213, then price stair-stepped down into 10/17 (low 174.74). 10/17 printed a long lower tail relative to body (buyers showed up sub-180), hinting at demand near the prior crash low (174–175). 10/18 intraday has carved a series of higher lows and a mild higher high (188.23), pointing to a nascent intraday uptrend.
• Support/Resistance map (spot):
  • Major supports: 174–175 (double-bottom zone from 10/10–10/17), 168.7 (pivot S2 projection), 161–163 (Aug swing)
  • Near supports: 182.0 (10/17 close, 10/18 morning pivot), 184.3–185.0 (hourly pullback demand), 185.6–185.9 (today’s VWAP region)
  • Near resistances: 188.0–188.3 (pivot R1 / hourly high), 190.5–193.0 (10/15 supply), 197.3–197.6 (10/12 close/inflection), 200.7 (pivot R3 projection), 203–205 (Fibo 38.2% cluster/late-Sep pivots)
• Intraday microstructure (hourlies 10/17 21:00 → 10/18 20:58): Range 183.37–188.23. Higher lows from ~183.4 → 184.3 → 185.0 → 185.3 → 186.1, breakout pulse circa 06:00–07:00 to 186.6–188.2, then orderly consolidation above VWAP. This supports a buy-the-dip play into pullbacks while trend holds above 185.

Classic indicators

• Simple moving averages (daily):
  • 20SMA ≈ 210.9 (computed from last 20 closes). Spot 186.99 is well below the 20SMA, indicating medium-term downtrend; this also provides mean-reversion tailwind as price trades near lower volatility envelope.
  • 50SMA (est.) ≈ 212–216; 200SMA (est.) ≈ 195–200 given the July–Sep base and Sep rally. Conclusion: price is below 20/50 and likely below 200SMA or testing it from beneath. This is still a bearish medium-term posture, but late-stage oversold for a tactical bounce.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
  • Midline ≈ 210.9. Band width widened on 10/10 then started to contract. Lower band est. mid − 2σ ≈ 176–178. Price bounced from sub-band (174–175) and now hovers between LB and mid. This favors continued mean reversion towards 194–205 over the next sessions, with near-term magnet zones 194–197.
• RSI (14, daily): ≈ 33 on the 10/17 close; today’s lift nudges it toward 35–37. This is near-oversold and curling up—typical of relief rallies from capitulative moves. No clear bearish divergence on daily; hourly RSI shows a constructive 45 → 55 → 60 staircase.
• Stochastic (14,3,3, daily, qualitative): Exited deep oversold and crossing up; supports a 1–3 day relief bounce unless negated by a breakdown below 182.
• MACD (12/26/9): Daily histogram likely negative but contracting; signal cross higher is plausible within 1–3 days if price holds >185 and pushes 191–197. Hourly MACD already flipped positive pre-dawn and remains above zero—bullish for the next 12–24h.
• ADX (14, daily, qualitative): Strong trend (down) spike post-10/10, now flattening. A falling ADX with price stabilizing implies trend exhaustion and fertile ground for counter-trend bounces.
• ATR (14, daily): Elevated after the shock (est. 16–20). A 24h move of 6–8% is feasible. From 186.99, that suggests an upside envelope 198–202 and downside to 172–176 if a fresh shock occurs.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is below the Kumo, Tenkan, and Kijun. Tenkan est. high-190s; Kijun est. ~205–209. The default read is bearish. However, in post-shock contexts, price commonly mean-reverts toward Tenkan first (call it ~196–198), which aligns with our 24h target band. A Tenkan touch from below is a classic short-term target in mean-reversion setups.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing reference: 9/18 high 253.21 to 10/10 low ~174.07. Retracement levels from low:
  • 38.2% ≈ 204.3, 50% ≈ 213.6, 61.8% ≈ 223.0. The 10/13 bounce stalled beneath the 38.2–round 205 area; a fresh attempt likely needs a stair-step: 188 → 194–197 → 200–205. For a 24h horizon, 194–197 is a realistic fib-aligning first target (pre-38.2 staging area).

Pivot points (Classic, based on 10/17 H/L/C = 187.43/174.74/182.03)

• P = 181.40, R1 = 188.06, R2 = 194.09, R3 = 200.75; S1 = 175.38, S2 = 168.72.
• Price tested and hovers near R1; next pivot magnet is R2 ≈ 194.1, then R3 ≈ 200.8. This confluence supports a tactical target in the 194–197 zone.

Volume and flow

• Volume profile: 10/10 was a blowout volume day (capitulation). Subsequent sell days show diminishing volume—sellers tiring. 10/12–10/13 upticks were on robust volume, indicating real dip-buying interest. 10/15–10/17 drift lower occurred on lower volume relative to 10/10 and 10/14, suggesting distribution fatigue rather than a new impulsive leg.
• OBV (qualitative): Sharp down-jump on 10/10; partial repair 10/12–10/13; essentially flat to slightly lower since, then stabilizing today—consistent with basing attempts.
• Intraday VWAP (10/18): Approx. 185.6–185.9. Price holding above VWAP throughout NY afternoon points to near-term buyer control; pullbacks toward VWAP are buyable for a day-trade swing.

Pattern read

• Double bottom attempt at 174–175 (10/10 and 10/17). Today’s higher intraday low and small higher high reinforce a potential W bottom in formation. Confirmation would be a 4h close above 188.3 and a daily close >191–193.
• Descending channel (early Oct → now): Price is near the lower boundary and rotating up toward the channel midline (~196–200). Expect supply to appear near the midline.
• Candlesticks: 10/12 printed a wide-range bullish candle after 10/11’s weak close—classic post-capitulation thrust. 10/14 formed a bearish engulfing relative to 10/13; since then bodies have compressed, culminating in 10/17’s long lower wick. Today’s intraday candles show steady bids and shallow pullbacks.

Cross-checks and probabilities (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Relief rally continues. Price dips to 185.2–185.9 (VWAP/HL support), then pushes through 188.0–188.3 (R1), probing 191.5–193.5, with extension into 194–197 (R2/10/12 ref). Expected 24h close around 195 ± 2 if momentum sustains.
• Range case (≈25%): Choppy 184–190, unable to clear 188–190 decisively; consolidation into Monday.
• Bear case (≈15%): Failure below 185 leads to 182 retest; loss of 182 opens 179.5–175.5 (S1) sweep. Only a firm break under 174 invalidates the double-bottom.

Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Thesis: Tactical long—mean-reversion from a capitulative downswing with improving intraday breadth and a developing double-bottom. Targets align with pivot R2 and pre-resistance shelf 194–197. Risk is managed against 179–182 breakdown.
• Entry tactics:
  1. Primary: Limit buy on a shallow pullback into 185.6 (near today’s VWAP/5–15m demand).
  2. Momentum add-on (if not filled): Stop-in buy on a clean break and hold above 188.5 (hourly resistance), targeting the same 194–197 zone; tighter risk controls.
• Profit target (24h): 197.5 (10/12 close confluence; below round 200 and R3 to increase fill probability). This respects ATR and weekend liquidity.
• Risk management (illustrative): Protective stop below 179.7 (below 10/17 tail body and above S1 floor 175 to avoid noise), yielding an approximate 1:1.3–1:1.6 R:R to 197.5 from 185.6 with a high odds of partial scale-outs at 191.8–194.1.

Indicator-by-indicator verdicts

• Trend MAs: Bearish bias, but extended—supports bounce, not trend reversal.
• Bollinger: Near lower band and expanding-to-contracting width—supports mean reversion up to mid/tenkan zones.
• RSI/Stoch: Lifting from oversold—bullish for 1–3 day relief.
• MACD: Hourly bullish; daily bottoming—constructive.
• Ichimoku: Below cloud; Tenkan target ≈ 196–198 fits 24h target.
• Pivots: Price at R1 with path to R2 ≈ 194.1; fits plan.
• Volume/OBV: Selling pressure waning; dip buyers active.
• Structure: Double-bottom attempt near 175 with higher intraday lows—bullish skew short-term.

Bottom line prediction (next 24h)

• Path of least resistance is modestly higher: 185.2–185.9 dip → 188.3 break → 191.8 test → 194–197 spike. Probability-weighted outcome favors a green 24h close in 193–197.
• Invalidation: Hourly close <182, daily slip back into 179–175 increases risk of a downside sweep to S1.

Actionable levels

• Buy zone: 185.2–185.9 (optimal 185.6 limit). Backup momentum trigger: >188.5 hold.
• Target: 197.5 within 24h.
• Key watch: 188.3 (pivot R1 gate), 191.8–193.0 (supply shelf), 194.1 (R2), 197.5 (take profit), 182.0 and 179.7 (risk guards).