SOL Coil at the Neckline: Buy the 136 Handle, Sell the 142 Retest

Market overview

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Quote currency: USD
• Current price (2025-12-10 21:57 UTC): 137.84
• Horizon for forecast: next 24 hours
• Data reviewed: Daily OHLCV (2025-09-12 → 2025-12-10) and hourly bars for the last ~24 hours

1. Price trend and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher-timeframe (Daily): The broader trend since mid-September is down, from ~253 to the December 1 swing low ~123.31, followed by a basing phase through early December. Recent daily closes show emerging higher lows and higher highs since 12/06 → 12/09, pointing to a short-term up-leg within a larger downtrend.
• Intermediate structure: A potential inverse head-and-shoulders is forming: Left shoulder ~128.5 (11/21), head ~123.31 (12/01), right shoulder ~131.9 (12/09 intraday). Neckline aligns with 141.8–142.5 zone. Price probed to 142.34 (12/10 20:00) but failed to close above, implying unconfirmed breakout with supply overhead.
• Intraday (Hourly): Today shows a contained range 136.1 → 142.34. Rejection wicks above 142 with a swift fade back to 138s suggest active supply at 142–144. However, lows are creeping up (136.1 vs yesterday’s 131–133 area), indicating demand building around 135–136.

2. Moving averages (Daily)

• 20D EMA/SMA (est.): ~138–140. Price sits marginally below/around the 20D mean — a battleground zone.
• 50D SMA (est.): ~170–175, well above price. The 20D remains below the 50D (downtrend intact on higher TF).
• 200D SMA (est.): ~200+. Strongly overhead; confirms the longer-term bearish context. Implication: Short-term mean reversion tailwind exists if price can sustain above the 20D; but the larger trend remains down until reclaiming and holding above the 50D/200D.

3. Momentum

• RSI (Daily, est.): mid-40s to low-50s. Lifted off oversold in early December but not yet in bullish momentum territory; room to rise before overbought.
• RSI (Hourly): Neutral-to-slightly bearish after the 20:00 UTC spike to 142.34 with subsequent pullback; likely a mild bearish divergence vs the 12/09 high (~144.74 intraday) — suggests near-term consolidation/pullback before another attempt higher.
• MACD (Daily, est.): Histogram contracting negative or near flat; signal lines turning up but still below zero. Bullish momentum is brewing but not confirmed.
• MACD (Hourly): Rolled over after the 20:00 spike; indicates a short-term pause or drift lower into support before the next push.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~7–8. Implies a typical daily swing of roughly $7–$8 from recent closes.
• Hourly realized range today: ~6.2 (136.1 → 142.34). Matches the theme of elevated but declining volatility compared with early December.
• Expectation for next 24h: A reasonable range envelope is roughly 135 → 143/144, barring catalysts.

5. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2) (est.): Mid-band near ~139. Bandwidth narrowed vs early December but still broad. Price oscillates around the mid-band; a drift to upper band (~152 est.) would require a confirmed breakout above 142–145. Currently leaning toward mid-band mean reversion after the intraday rejection.
• Hourly BB: Signs of mini-squeeze earlier today, followed by an expansion toward 142 and a quick revert. Now price is back near the mid/bottom band on the hourlies, supportive of a buy-the-dip bias in the 135–136 zone.

6. Fibonacci analysis

• Major swing: 253.21 (09/18 high) → 123.31 (12/01 low). Range ≈ 129.90. Key retracements from the low: 23.6% ≈ 154.0, 38.2% ≈ 172.8, 50% ≈ 188.3, 61.8% ≈ 203.8. Current price (138) is well below even 23.6% — confirms macro downtrend dominance; upside rally targets (150–175) are larger TF objectives beyond 24h.
• Recent swing: 146.72 (12/04) → 126.71 (12/01), range ≈ 20.01 (using H-to-L ordering for retracement reference back upward). Notably, 50% ≈ 137.6 and 61.8% ≈ 139.1 cluster around current trade area. Price oscillating near the 50% line today (137.6–138.2) and repeatedly testing 61.8% area (~139). This confluence supports the idea of a tactical long from pullbacks into 135–137 with targets back toward 141–142 (neckline).

7. Support and resistance map

• Immediate demand: 135.8–136.2 (today’s intraday lows and repeated bids), then 133.0–134.0 (12/05–12/08 congestion), and 128.5 (11/21 low) if deeper washout.
• Immediate supply: 141.8–142.5 (candidate neckline) and 144.5–146.7 (12/09–12/04 highs). A daily close above 142.5 would open 145–147; above 147 would challenge 150–152.
• Volume confirmation: Notable volume on pushes to 142–144 that have been faded. Indicates supply pockets remain, but absorption appears to be improving as higher lows develop.

8. Pivot points (using 12/09 H/L/C)

• 12/09: H 144.74, L 131.87, C 137.90 → Pivot P ≈ 138.17; R1 ≈ 144.47; S1 ≈ 131.60; R2 ≈ 151.04; S2 ≈ 125.30.
• Today traded around P (138.17), spiked below P to the 136s and up toward the underside of R1 without reaching it. This is classic mean-revert behavior centered on the pivot. For the next session, expect magnetism near 138 and two-sided flows unless 142.5 breaks and shifts the distribution higher.

9. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price: below cloud; overall higher-timeframe bearish.
• Tenkan (conversion) vs Kijun (base): Tenkan rising toward Kijun near 139–140; crosses would support a short-term bullish phase, but still below cloud resistance.
• Chikou span likely below price and cloud; confirms the primary trend remains down. Short-term signals can still produce tactical long trades into resistance.

10. Volume/Flow

• Daily volumes elevated during the late-Nov selloff and early-Dec bounce; recent sessions show moderate volume with spikes on attempts above 142–144 (supply response). This pattern often precedes a base: sellers active at the top, buyers supporting higher lows at the bottom.
• Intraday (12/10) saw the largest burst around 19–20 UTC on the move to 142.34, followed by supply-driven fade. Healthy for a base-building market as long as 135–136 holds on pullbacks.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Inverse H&S (developing): Neckline 141.8–142.5, head ~123.3, right shoulder ~131–133. Confirmation requires a strong hourly/daily close above 142.5 with expanding volume. Measured move would target ~156–158; however, that’s beyond the typical 24h ATR; near-term achievable waypoint is 145–147.
• Descending channel (from Oct): Price may be attempting to break the midline of the channel; repeated rejections at 144–147 are consistent with the channel’s upper boundary. A daily close >147 would likely confirm a channel breakout, not expected within 24h without a catalyst.

12. Probability-weighted scenarios (24h)

• Base case (45%): Range trade between 136 and 142; buyers defend 135–136, sellers fade 141.8–142.5. Close near 139–141.
• Bull case (35%): Brief dip to 136–137, then a breakout close above 142.5, extension to 144–145 possible intraday; close 142–144.
• Bear case (20%): Loss of 135.8 support triggers a sweep to 133–134; recovery later back to 136–138. A decisive daily close <133 would weaken the basing thesis, but odds are lower given recent higher lows and demand response.

13. Trading edge synthesis

• Confluence long factors: Higher lows since 12/06; defending 135–136; oscillation around the 50% Fib (~137.6) with 61.8% (~139.1) above; pivot P ~138.17 magnet; hourly BB support; ATR allowing a 5–6 point push to the neckline in 24h; improving (though unconfirmed) momentum.
• Risks to long: Hourly RSI divergence and MACD rollover after 142.34; persistent supply at 142–145; macro downtrend overhead. Mitigation: Employ a pullback entry near 136.3 to improve reward/risk and let momentum rebuild.

14. Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Bias: Buy dips near the 135.8–136.3 demand shelf to play for a retest of 141.8–142.5 (neckline).
• Entry (limit): 136.30 to improve edge versus buying at market 137.84.
• Profit objective (24h realistic): 142.20 (beneath the neckline’s first supply layer to increase fill probability on take-profit). That aligns with ATR and the recent intraday high (142.34) without requiring a breakout hold.
• Optional risk control (not required but prudent): Protective stop ~134.20 (below shelf and below the 12/10 16:00–17:00 cluster), yielding approx risk 2.10 versus reward ~5.90 → R:R ≈ 2.8:1.
• Alternative momentum add (if breakout): If price closes an hour above 142.5 with volume, an add-on could target 144.8–146.7; however, for this 24h plan the primary TP remains 142.2.

Conclusion

• Short-term structure favors a tactical long-on-dip approach within a developing base, aiming for a retest of the 141.8–142.5 neckline. Expect choppy trade with a slight bullish tilt; buying the 136 handle and exiting into 142 reduces dependence on a full breakout while leveraging current volatility and mean reversion dynamics.