SOL’s Sunday Stop-Sweep Sets the Stage: Buy the $132 Pullback for a Run at $136–$137

Summary view

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Current price: $132.78 (as of 2025-12-07 21:58 UTC)
• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish-to-neutral with mean-reversion upside toward $135.5–$137.5 if the $131.8–$132.2 pullback zone holds; risk of a sweep to $130–$129 if $131 fails.

1. Market structure and multi-timeframe trend

• Daily structure: Medium-term downtrend from mid-September highs (~$250) with successive lower highs. However, since the Nov 21 pivot low ($128.50) and the Dec 1 low ($126.71), price is building a base between $126–$145. Today formed a higher low ($128.32) vs. Dec 1 ($126.71) — first constructive sign within the base.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Sharp liquidity flush at 14:00 UTC to $128.32 followed by a strong impulse to $136.14 (17:00–18:00 UTC), then orderly pullback to $132.78 into the close. This is classic “stop sweep + impulse + 50–61.8% retrace” behavior typical of bottoming intraday sequences.
• Channel context: Since Oct, price has respected a descending channel; today’s flush tagged the lower-quarter of that channel and bounced, consistent with short-term mean reversion.

2. Key levels (confluence and context)

• Immediate supports: $132.2 (intraday 50%–61.8% retrace zone of 128.32→136.14), $131.9–$132.0 (61.8% of that move), $130.7 (today’s 16:00 swing low), $128.3 (today’s flush low), $126.7 (Dec 1 swing low and major support).
• Immediate resistances: $135.7 (approx 20D SMA), $136.2 (today’s impulse high), $136.7 (50% of 128.5→144.9 swing), $138.9–$139.0 (recent pivot/psychological), $144.9 (Dec 3 high).
• Volume/POC zone: Heavy transaction density around $133–$134 over the past two weeks; price often reverts to/through this magnet before resolving.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ $135.7: Price is slightly below; mean reversion favors a push back toward this level within 24h if supports hold.
• 50D SMA: Still well above spot (mid/upper 150s–160s), reflecting medium-term downtrend and capping upside beyond $140–$145 near term.
• 8/21 EMA (daily): Bearish to flat, but the slope is starting to stabilize after the higher low — suggests downside momentum is fading and rallies can occur toward the 21 EMA cluster (mid/high 130s).

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-40s to ~50 (neutral-bearish shifting toward neutral), consistent with a base-building regime. Not oversold; room for a modest bounce.
• Hourly RSI: Intraday oversold on the flush (<30), then rebounded into mid-50s; now hovering high-40s/low-50s — constructive for a continuation push if pullbacks hold.
• Stochastics (hourly): Reset after the rally; room to cycle up again on a higher low around $132.

5. MACD / momentum breadth

• Daily MACD: Below zero but histogram contraction is consistent with waning downside momentum after a higher low; near-term bullish mean-reversion signal.
• Hourly MACD: Turned positive on the impulse; currently consolidating — suggests another attempt higher if $132 support holds.

6. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~$8–$10. Today’s wick shows realized vol still elevated.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): 20D mid ≈ $135.7; lower band estimated ~low-$124s to high-$123s; price bounced from the lower-half back toward the mid-band — typical of a revert-to-mean setup targeting $135–$137 in 24h.

7. Ichimoku (directional overlay)

• Daily: Price remains below the cloud; Kijun/Tenkan likely in the mid/high-$130s. A test of $135–$137 is consistent with Tenkan/Kijun gravity, but the cloud overhead (~$139–$145) remains resistance.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing 1 (Dec 1 low $126.71 → Dec 3 high $144.90):
  • 61.8% = ~$133.65; 78.6% = ~$130.61; 88.6% ≈ ~$128.78. Price wicked through 88.6% today ($128.32) and reclaimed — bullish “stop run” behavior.
• Swing 2 (Today intraday $128.32 → $136.14):
  • 50% = ~$132.23; 61.8% = ~$131.99. Current price $132.78 is in the sweet-spot buy-the-dip zone for potential continuation to retest $136.

9. Volume/Order flow and Wyckoff lens

• The 14:00 UTC candle shows high effort down and immediate reversal (stopping volume), followed by an Automatic Rally to $136. This looks like a Selling Climax → Automatic Rally → Secondary Test structure on the hourly chart. The subsequent controlled pullback on lighter volume into the 50–61.8% retrace is constructive for a push toward $135.5–$136.5 in the next session.
• OBV/accumulation tone: Stabilizing since late Nov; dips are being bought near $128–$131.

10. Elliott-wave framing (tactical)

• The drop from Dec 3 to today resembles an ABC corrective sequence, with wave C likely terminating near $128.3 (C often ~A or extends 1.236×). The impulsive rebound to $136 and shallow retrace favor a small degree wave-1/2 pattern, implying another probe higher toward $136–$138 before the next decision point.

11. Statistical/seasonal and time-of-week considerations

• Weekend liquidity often exaggerates wicks; early-week (Mon/Tue) sessions tend to normalize toward key MAs/VWAPs. A Monday test of the 20D SMA (~$135.7) is plausible if $132 holds overnight.

12. Risk factors and invalidation

• Bear scenario: Loss of $131.8–$132.0 opens a quick test of $130.7 and a potential sweep of $128.3; break and hold below $126.7 negates the base and resumes the broader downtrend toward low-$120s.
• Bull scenario: Hold $131.9–$132.2, rotate up through $135.7 (20D SMA) to $136.2–$136.8; extension targets $138.9 but that likely requires stronger market-wide tailwinds.

13. 24-hour price path projection

• Base case (55–60%): Early dip to $131.8–$132.2, then rally to $135.5–$136.8, close ~$134.5–$136.0.
• Upside tail (25%): Clean break of $136.2 → $137.5–$138.2; fade below $139.
• Downside tail (15–20%): Lose $131.8 → $130.7 → liquidity sweep toward $128.5–$128.0, fast reclaim back to ~$132–$133.

Synthesis and trade plan

• With a constructive intraday higher low, mean-reversion magnet at the 20D SMA (~$135.7), and multiple supports layered just below, the skew favors a tactical long. The optimal entry is a buy-limit in the $131.8–$132.1 zone aiming for a retest of $136.
• Profit-taking just below resistance ($136.8) increases the odds of fill within 24h. Risk is defined beneath $129.9–$130.7 (noting $128.3 and $126.7 as must-hold macro supports).

Decision: Buy (Long). Target: $136.8 within 24h if $131.9–$132.0 holds. Invalidation on sustained trade below $130.7; deeper invalidation below $126.7.

Note: This is a tactical setup in a broader medium-term downtrend; treat as a mean-reversion trade, not a trend reversal, and manage risk accordingly.