SOL at $77: Breakdown After Failed Bounce Signals Another Leg Down (24h Bearish Bias)

SOL (Solana) — Technical Analysis (Daily + Intraday)

Current price: $77.35 (as of 2026-02-12 21:57 UTC)

1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure

Daily (swing structure)

• Primary trend: Strong downtrend since mid-Jan.
• Key regime shift: Large breakdown from the ~$125–$135 base (Jan 20–28) followed by acceleration lower into early Feb.
• Sequence of lower highs / lower lows:
  • Jan 14 close ~146.75 → Feb 12 close ~77.35 (very steep drawdown).
  • Feb 5 printed a major capitulation candle (low ~77.77, close ~78.19) with extreme volume (~10.56B), followed by a violent mean-reversion on Feb 6 (low ~68.69, close ~87.46) on even higher volume (~11.67B). This is classic “capitulation → reflex bounce” behavior.
• Since the bounce: Feb 7–12 shows rolling over again (87.64 → 77.35) → the bounce is being sold into, implying sellers still control the tape.

Hourly (tactical structure)

• Price spent the first half of Feb 12 hovering ~80–82, then sharp breakdown at 16:00 from ~80.27 to ~78.35 on a volume burst (largest hour of the day). That’s a distribution breakdown (support failure).
• Post-breakdown, price attempted minor stabilization 77.6–78.3, then another push down to ~76.68 around 20:00 before recovering modestly to ~77.35.
• This reads like a bear flag / bear drift after a breakdown: weak rebounds, sellers defending overhead levels.

2) Support / resistance mapping (price action)

Major supports

• $76.7–$77.8: Near-term support zone (today’s low ~76.84 on the daily candle; hourly low ~76.68).
• $68.7: Feb 6 capitulation low. If $76–$77 fails decisively, market may seek the next “memory level” near the prior panic low.

Major resistances

• $78.3–$79.3: First overhead supply (intraday reactions and prior consolidation after the breakdown).
• $80.2–$81.0: Broken intraday support (now resistance). Expect sellers to show up here.
• $82.0–$82.1: Intraday swing high area before the selloff resumed.

3) Momentum & mean-reversion cues (indicator logic from observed candles)

(Exact indicator values aren’t computed from full history here, but the behavior is inferable from the sequence and volatility profile.)

RSI / momentum behavior (qualitative)

• The broader move (105 → 77 in ~12 days) suggests persistent negative momentum.
• The Feb 6 spike up (68.7 → 87.5 close) likely caused a temporary momentum reset, but subsequent lower closes indicate that momentum failed to sustain.
• This increases the odds that rallies are counter-trend and sold.

Moving averages (structure-based inference)

• With price collapsing from ~140s to ~70s, price is almost certainly below the 20D/50D/200D and those averages are likely bearishly stacked (20 < 50 < 200) or at minimum sloping down strongly.
• In such regimes, the statistical edge often favors selling rallies into resistance rather than buying breakdowns blindly.

4) Volatility, volume & “event candles”

• Early Feb shows abnormal daily volumes (Feb 5–6) → a sign of forced liquidation / deleveraging.
• After capitulation, volatility remains elevated; intraday ranges are still large relative to price.
• Feb 12 hourly breakdown (16:00) came with clear volume expansion → breakdown is more credible than a low-volume drift.

5) Pattern/price-action setups

Bear flag / breakdown continuation (highest weight)

• Intraday: consolidation ~80–82 followed by impulsive drop to ~78 then grind lower to ~76.7.
• The recovery to 77.35 is weak and still below broken support (80 zone).
• This favors continuation lower or at least a retest of 76.7.

Potential “capitulation base” (lower weight, conditional)

• The Feb 6 low at 68.7 is a clear panic low; markets sometimes form a base after such an event.
• However, for that to become tradable long, you’d want:
  • higher low(s) + reclaim of 80–82 with acceptance
  • reduced sell-volume on dips
• Current tape (new lows after failing near 82) does not confirm basing yet.

6) 24-hour forward view (probabilistic)

Given the downtrend, breakdown confirmation on volume, and weak rebound structure:

• Base case (higher probability): price retests $76.7 and may briefly pierce into $75.5–$76.0. If that area fails with momentum, downside can extend toward $73–$74.
• Alternative (lower probability): short-covering bounce back to $79.3–$80.5, but likely sold unless price reclaims and holds above ~81.

Directional bias next 24h: Bearish-to-neutral, with bearish edge while below ~$80.2–$81.

---

Trade Plan (tactical)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: trend is down, intraday support broke with volume, and price is below key resistance bands.

Optimal open (entry) price

• Prefer selling a rebound into resistance rather than chasing at support.
• Open Price (short): $79.20
  • Near first meaningful overhead supply (78.3–79.3), offers better R:R than shorting directly at 77.35.

Take-profit / close price

• Close Price (take profit): $74.80
  • Targets a plausible continuation leg below the 76.7 support (break-and-run), while staying conservative vs. the much deeper panic low (~68.7).

(Risk note for execution: if price instead reclaims and holds above ~$81 on strength, the short thesis weakens materially; consider invalidation above that zone in real trading.)