SOL Reclaims $105.5 Support: A Pullback Entry Could Target the $110–$111 Recovery Zone

SOL 24-hour technical outlook

Market state: SOL is quoted at $107.97, following a daily advance from $106.42 and an intraday move from the $105.5–$106.0 area to a session high near $109.00. The preferred setup is a buy-on-pullback, not a market chase directly into nearby resistance.

1. Multi-timeframe trend structure

• Medium-term trend: The broader advance from the July low near $70–$75 to the late-September high near $124 remains materially positive, but the October decline from roughly $122 to $100.5 was a sharp corrective leg.
• Daily structure: Price has transitioned from the October 7–18 selloff into a basing/recovery phase. Since the $100.51 low on October 18, daily closes have improved: $104.02 → $104.93 → $106.42 → $107.97. This is a constructive sequence of rising closes.
• Short-term trend: Hourly price action recovered from the $105.5 area, formed a succession of higher intraday lows, and pushed to $108.80–$109.10 before consolidating around $108. This indicates buyers remain active, although the $109 area is immediate supply.

2. Moving-average assessment

• Approximate 5-day SMA: $105.33.
• Approximate 10-day SMA: $105.26.
• Approximate 20-day SMA: $110.50.

Current price is decisively above the rising 5-day and 10-day averages, confirming short-term upside momentum. However, it remains below the declining 20-day average, meaning the current move is still a recovery within a broader correction rather than a confirmed medium-term trend reversal. This supports a tactical long with a defined target beneath or near the 20-day moving-average resistance zone.

3. Momentum: RSI and MACD interpretation

• The recent selloff likely left the daily RSI in a weak-to-neutral region rather than overbought territory. The last four daily gains should be lifting RSI from oversold conditions, creating room for additional upside before a momentum ceiling is reached.
• MACD is likely still below its zero line after the October breakdown, but the improvement in daily closes implies a narrowing negative histogram and improving momentum. This is commonly an early recovery signal, though not yet a fully confirmed bullish trend signal.
• Therefore, momentum favors a further relief rally, but resistance should be expected between $109 and $111.5.

4. Fibonacci retracement levels

Using the recent decline from approximately $121.94 (October 5 high) to $100.51 (October 18 low):

• 23.6% retracement: approximately $105.57 — reclaimed and now functioning as support.
• 38.2% retracement: approximately $108.70 — current first major resistance; the intraday high near $109 tested this level.
• 50% retracement: approximately $111.23 — the next upside objective if $108.70–$109.10 is broken and held.
• 61.8% retracement: approximately $113.76 — less likely within the next 24 hours without a meaningful volume expansion.

The market has recovered above the 23.6% level and is testing the 38.2% level. A controlled retracement toward $107.2–$107.5, followed by renewed buying, offers a better entry than buying immediately below Fibonacci resistance.

5. Support, resistance, and volume profile

Support levels

• $107.20–$107.50: near-term breakout/retest zone and preferred long-entry area.
• $106.40–$106.60: former intraday balance area and daily open region.
• $105.50–$105.60: major support, aligning with the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement and the intraday low region.
• $103.60–$104.10: deeper daily support from the October base.

Resistance levels

• $108.70–$109.10: immediate intraday/Fibonacci resistance.
• $110.50–$111.25: 20-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement; primary take-profit zone.
• $112.50–$113.20: secondary resistance, only relevant if a strong breakout develops.

Daily volume of about $2.51B is moderate and lower than the high-volume liquidation/reversal days earlier in October. That reduces confidence in an immediate explosive breakout, but it is consistent with a steady recovery rally. The hourly move showed bursts of activity during the advance, suggesting demand increased as SOL approached $108–$109.

6. Candlestick and price-action signals

• The October 21 daily candle is bullish, trading from approximately $105.58 to nearly $109.00 and closing close to the upper portion of its range. This reflects positive buyer control.
• The intraday rejection from $109 indicates active sellers at the first Fibonacci resistance, so an initial pullback or sideways consolidation is probable before the next attempt higher.
• The absence of a severe rejection back under $107 after the $109 test is favorable: it suggests buyers are defending the breakout zone rather than abandoning it.

7. Volatility and scenario forecast

SOL’s recent daily ranges have commonly been between roughly $3 and $6, with occasional larger volatility shocks. A $3–$4 move from a pullback entry is feasible over the next 24 hours.

Base case, estimated probability 55–60%: Price retraces or consolidates near $107.2–$107.7, then retests $109.0 and extends toward $110.5–$111.0.

Bullish extension, estimated probability 20–25%: A sustained break above $109.10 with stronger volume could carry SOL toward $111.25 and potentially $112+.

Bearish alternative, estimated probability 20–25%: Failure to hold $106.40 would weaken the recovery structure and could send price back to the $105.50 support area. A decisive daily loss of $105.50 would invalidate the tactical bullish setup.

Conclusion

The technical balance favors a short-term Buy because daily closes are improving, price is above the 5-day and 10-day averages, the $105.5 Fibonacci support has been reclaimed, and intraday structure remains upward. However, price is approaching the $108.7–$109.1 resistance band and remains below the 20-day average. The optimal strategy is therefore to buy a measured pullback around $107.30, targeting the next high-probability resistance cluster around $110.80 rather than chasing the current price.