SOL’s $96 Rejection Signals a High-Probability Retest of $93 Support

SOL 24-hour technical assessment

Market snapshot: SOL is at $95.51 at 2026-10-31 21:00 UTC. The daily candle is marginally red, and the hourly structure has failed to sustain the early-session move to $96.87. Price is trading below the prior-day close ($96.22) and just below the prior-day pivot area, which maintains a near-term bearish bias.

1. Primary trend analysis

Medium-term trend: Bearish. SOL declined from the October 4 high near $122.16 to the October 30 low of $92.75, a roughly 24% drawdown. Since the sharp October 7–8 breakdown, rallies have repeatedly failed below prior highs:

• October 20–21 recovery stalled around $108–109.
• October 28 bounce topped near $103.50.
• October 29 then produced a decisive bearish impulse, closing at the daily low near $95.49.
• The October 30 rebound reached $98.25 but failed to reclaim $100, while October 31 has reverted to $95.51.

This sequence is consistent with lower highs and lower lows. Until SOL closes and holds above the $98.25–$100.00 supply zone, the broader corrective trend remains intact.

Short-term trend: Bearish-to-neutral consolidation after a sharp selloff. The current hourly action is compressed between roughly $95.16 and $96.01 after a rejection from $96.87. The inability to hold above $96 despite several attempts indicates overhead supply and favors another test of lower support.

2. Moving-average structure

Approximate closing-price averages show price below the principal short and intermediate trend references:

• 5-day SMA: approximately $99.36
• 10-day SMA: approximately $100.53
• 20-day SMA: approximately $103–104
• Current price: $95.51

SOL is materially below all of these averages, and the short averages are sloping downward. This is a bearish moving-average alignment: rallies toward nearby resistance are more likely to be sold unless price can decisively reclaim the 5-day average near $99.36.

3. Momentum: RSI and MACD interpretation

A rough 14-day RSI calculation from the latest daily closes is near the high-20s to low-30s, reflecting oversold momentum after the $102.31 to $95.49 decline. Oversold conditions do not by themselves establish a buy signal; in a downtrend, they often lead only to shallow relief rallies before the primary move resumes.

The practical implication is two-sided:

• The bearish trend favors a short position.
• The oversold reading argues against chasing a short at the current low-quality location near $95.51.

Therefore, the higher-quality setup is to sell into a bounce toward resistance rather than entering aggressively at market.

MACD would be expected to remain below its signal/zero-region after the recent breakdown. The failed rebound and position below declining moving averages suggest bearish momentum has not yet been structurally reversed.

4. Candlestick and price-action evidence

• October 29: Large bearish expansion day, closing at or essentially at its low ($95.49) on elevated daily volume of about $4.88B. This is a strong distribution/breakdown signal.
• October 30: Relief bounce from $92.75 to $98.25, but the close at $96.22 was well below the high. The upper wick shows supply emerged on the recovery.
• October 31: Small, indecisive-to-bearish daily candle with high $96.85 and low $95.16. It has not negated the October 29 breakdown.
• Hourly structure: The intraday rebound from $94.92 to $96.87 was fully retraced toward $95.16, followed by a narrow consolidation. Repeated rejection around $96.00–$96.20 makes this the first logical sell-on-rally zone.

5. Volume and participation

Daily volume expanded substantially on the October 29 selloff ($4.88B) and remained high on October 30 ($4.64B). That combination indicates the decline had meaningful participation rather than being a low-liquidity drift. The October 31 daily volume is lower, consistent with post-impulse consolidation rather than confirmed accumulation.

The supplied hourly volume is predominantly zero/unavailable, so hourly volume confirmation should not be relied upon. Daily volume is the more usable input and favors the bearish breakdown interpretation.

6. Volatility and ATR framework

Recent daily ranges have been elevated: October 29 ranged about $7.37 and October 30 about $5.51. A rough 14-day ATR estimate is around $3.5–$3.8. This means a move from a $96.20 short entry toward $93.25 is about $2.95, or less than one recent ATR, making the target achievable within 24 hours if bearish pressure resumes.

Volatility also increases the risk of sudden short-covering rallies. For that reason, waiting for entry near resistance is preferable to entering at $95.51.

7. Pivot points and horizontal support/resistance

Using the October 30 high ($98.25), low ($92.75), and close ($96.22):

• Daily pivot: approximately $95.74
• R1: approximately $98.73
• S1: approximately $93.23

Current price at $95.51 is below the $95.74 pivot, supporting a modest bearish intraday bias. The selected take-profit level of $93.25 aligns closely with pivot S1 and lies just above the major October 30 low at $92.75.

Key levels:

• Immediate resistance: $95.75–$96.20
• Stronger resistance: $96.85–$98.25
• Trend invalidation zone: $98.25–$100.00
• Immediate support: $95.16–$94.92
• Primary downside target/support: $93.23–$92.75

8. Fibonacci and market-structure confluence

For the latest rebound from $92.75 to $98.25, the 50% retracement is near $95.50, exactly around current price. Holding below this midpoint after a failed recovery favors a retest of the range low. A break below $94.92 would reinforce this view and expose $93.23 and then $92.75.

For the broader move from the October high near $121.53 to the October low near $92.75, major retracement resistance starts materially higher around $99.50–$100.00. SOL remains below that area, so the broader retracement has not repaired the damaged trend structure.

9. 24-hour forecast and trade conclusion

Base case: SOL trades with a bearish/sideways-to-lower bias over the next 24 hours. A limited bounce into $95.75–$96.20 is possible because momentum is oversold, but failure beneath $96.85 should invite renewed selling toward $93.25. This forecast is supported by the lower-high/lower-low sequence, price below declining moving averages, rejection of the $96.87 intraday high, position below the daily pivot, and high-volume breakdown context.

Alternative bullish case: A sustained hourly move and acceptance above $96.85, followed by a break above $98.25, would weaken the short thesis and could trigger a recovery toward $99.50–$100.00. The proposed entry deliberately waits below this stronger invalidation region.

Decision: Sell on a rebound, not at the current price. The optimal short entry is $96.20, where intraday resistance, the prior-day closing area, and the local failed-recovery zone converge. The profit target is $93.25, near pivot S1 and immediately above the $92.75 major support area.