Sui (SUI) 24-Hour Price Forecast: Detailed Technical Analysis

Step 1: Trend & Price Structure Analysis

Daily Chart Observation:

• From the historical daily candles, SUI recently surged from a low around $2.45 (June 22) to a multi-month high above $4.40 (July 27-28), followed by a sharp retracement to $3.75 (current level).
• The major uptrend from late June into July recently reversed after a parabolic spike, triggering profit-taking and volatility.
• Despite the pullback, SUI remains firmly above the $3.50–$3.70 support zone, previously acting as resistance in May and June.

Hourly Chart Short-Term Movements:

• The price has consolidated between $3.68 and $3.83 in the last 12 hours, after a sharp correction from $4.40 to $3.75.
• There’s a modest series of higher lows forming intraday, suggesting buyers are stepping in near $3.68–$3.72.

Step 2: Volume & Momentum Analysis

• Volume Spike Analysis:

  • Notice elevated volumes on July 26–28 during the rally to $4.40 (2.1–2.3B in daily volume) which then diminished on the drop, indicating the blow-off top and capitulation move.
  • The recent bounce around $3.70 has moderate volume; lack of further heavy selling suggests sellers are exhausted at this level.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI):

  • On the daily, RSI would be declining from overbought (>70) to neutral (~50–55), consistent with a corrective, not a reversal, phase.
  • The hourly RSI, judging by the grind and stalling in price, likely oscillates around 40-55 (slightly bullish intraday divergence at local lows).

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

  • Daily MACD is narrowing after bullish expansion, with the histogram flattening—indicating loss of upward momentum, but no definitive bearish crossover yet.

Step 3: Chart Pattern & Price Action Readings

• Flag/Pennant Formation:
  • The recent price action post blow-off shows a descending flag/pennant pattern, typical after strong uptrends before potential breakout or another correction.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Key supports: $3.68–$3.72 (recent intraday and former daily resistance zone), then $3.50 (round psychological and May/June resistance).
  • Key resistance: $3.83–$3.90 (multiple failed hourly wicks), then $4.00–$4.08 (daily high congestion), and finally $4.40 (recent top).

Step 4: Moving Averages Assessment

• 50-SMA/200-SMA (Daily):
  • Price remains significantly above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which should both be trending upward and positioned near $3.00–$3.25 (from previous lows).
  • No signs of a bearish crossover, confirming the larger uptrend is intact.

Step 5: Volatility & Risk Evaluation

• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Recent ATR increase, especially after the blow-off top, suggests heightened volatility.
  • Swing ranges of $0.40–$0.60 per session are common post-spike; this is useful for setting stops/targets.
• Order Book Psychology:
  • Sellers demonstrated control from $4.20+, but bottom-fishing buyers are aggressively defending dips below $3.70.

Step 6: Sentiment & Positioning

• Sentiment:
  • Excessive euphoria likely faded post-top. Market now reflects cautious optimism as risk-reward becomes attractive near support zones.
• Liquidation Formations:
  • The sharp liquidation above $4.20 liquidated late longs—this typically marks a short-term bottom or reversal setup for disciplined traders.

Step 7: Fib Retracement & Confluence

• Fibonacci Analysis:
  • The retracement from $2.45 (June low) to $4.40 (July high) gives key Fib levels:
    • 38.2% retracement: ~$3.64 (just below current price—strong confluence)
    • 50% retracement: ~$3.43 (aligns with former daily resistance)
    • 61.8% retracement: ~$3.22 (more distant, only approached on highly bearish breakdown)
  • SUI currently holding just above the 38.2% retracement, reinforcing a primed support zone.

Step 8: Oscillator & Divergence Scan

• Hourly/4H RSI & MACD Divergence:
  • Intraday lows around $3.70–$3.73 are being made with less downside force (bullish divergence), suggesting sellers are losing control on low timeframes.

Step 9: Final Technically-Informed Trading Plan

• SUI has completed a textbook post-spike shakeout, returned to a major confluence support ($3.68–$3.72 zone), and is stabilizing above the 38.2% Fib retracement. Momentum via oscillators implies a potential for mean reversion upwards.
• MACD, RSI, and the lack of follow-through from sellers point toward a high-probability bounce, while risk can be tightly managed just below $3.68.
• Immediate upside targets are $3.88–$3.90 (nearest resistance and mid-point of the recent down channel), then stretch to $4.00–$4.08 if bulls sustain pressure.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios (24h):

• 60% chance of a relief bounce toward $3.88–$3.90 within the next 24 hours.
• 30% chance of rejection and further sideways action.
• 10% chance of breakdown below $3.68 and retest of $3.50–$3.60, but volume/price action suggests this is less likely unless broader crypto market turns abruptly bearish.

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In conclusion:

• Technical evidence, price structure, and indicator confluence point to a quality risk/reward “Buy” setup near $3.75, with tight stop discipline below $3.68, and upside targets at $3.90+. The post-blowoff bottoming process is nearly complete, making the buy-the-dip thesis attractive with elevated but declining volatility.

Trade Plan:

• Enter Long (Buy) near $3.75–$3.77.
• Initial Target: $3.90.
• Exit/Stop: Consider stop below $3.67 for prudent risk management.

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Note: Reassess if price breaks and closes below $3.68 as this would change short-term structure toward bearish.