SUI: Sell the Bounce into 3.31–3.34 — Targeting a 3.22 Retest Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias: Bearish continuation within 24 hours; sell the bounce. Expect a test of 3.26–3.22 with risk of an extension to 3.18 if 3.215 breaks. A minor relief pop toward 3.31–3.34 is likely first and offers the best risk-adjusted short entry.
• Rationale: Lower highs/lower lows since Aug 14, price below 20D and 50D MAs, daily RSI ~38 (bearish but not oversold), 0.382 Fib of the latest downswing capped today’s bounce near 3.33, hourly structure shows a bear flag/rectangle under the mid-band and under the Ichimoku cloud; down days carry higher volume than up days.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily: Since the Aug 14 swing high (~4.175), SUI has printed a sequence of lower highs (Aug 22 ~3.76, Aug 28 ~3.52) and lower lows (Aug 25 ~3.316, Aug 29 ~3.216). Yesterday’s wide-range bearish candle (O: ~3.49, L: ~3.216, C: ~3.285) broke the late-Aug support and expanded volatility. Today is an inside/consolidation day under that breakdown—typical “pause” that often precedes another push lower.
• 4H/1H: Price carved a sharp drop on Aug 29 followed by a tight 1H consolidation between ~3.24–3.34. The bounce was rejected at 3.33–3.34 multiple times, consistent with supply stepping in at the 38.2% retracement of the last leg down. The intraday range is compressing slightly—a textbook bear flag/rectangle beneath prior support turned resistance.

Key levels (confluence map)

• Resistance: 3.33–3.35 (0.382 Fib of 3.523→3.216 leg; intraday supply and hourly cloud underside), 3.37 (0.5 Fib/volume node), 3.49–3.52 (late Aug distribution shelf; daily resistance).
• Support: 3.28–3.26 (intraday shelf), 3.215 (Aug 29 swing low), 3.18–3.15 (projected measured move/next demand), 3.05–3.10 (lower daily BB zone if acceleration occurs—less likely in 24h, but on deck if risk-off accelerates).

Indicator deep dive and signals

1. Moving averages

• Daily 20SMA ≈ 3.63 (est. from last 20 closes); price at 3.28 is well below—bearish momentum regime. 50D/100D likely higher still, reinforcing a downside bias.
• 1H 20SMA/50SMA: Price rallied to the 20–50 hour cluster near 3.30–3.32 and failed; repeated rejections of the mean after a breakdown signal trend continuation.
• Read-through: Trading below declining short/intermediate MAs favors selling rallies until a higher low and MA reclaim occur.

2. RSI/Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 38–39 by calculation, below neutral 50, not oversold. Room for further downside before classical oversold signals (<30) show up.
• 1H RSI oscillated mid-40s to low-50s on the bounce, then rolled over—bear flag context more than a bottoming divergence.
• Read-through: Momentum remains negative across frames; no strong bullish divergence.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD below signal with negative histogram; recent histogram contraction slowed yesterday but remains sub-zero.
• 1H MACD rolled back toward zero and is curling lower near resistance.
• Read-through: Momentum rallies fade; downside continuity favored.

4. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price sits below the middle band (20SMA ~3.63). Not hugging the lower band, suggesting we’re in a “walk down” phase: grind lower with intermittent mean-reversion to the mid-band failing.
• 1H: Rejected near the middle band around 3.31; lower band opens up toward 3.24–3.22.
• Read-through: Sell the mid-band in a downtrend; target lower band/previous lows.

5. Ichimoku (trend-following confirmation)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan and Kijun and under the cloud; lagging span likely beneath price and cloud as well—bearish stack.
• 1H: Today’s bounce failed at or just under the cloud base around 3.31–3.33; Tenkan < Kijun with price below both.
• Read-through: Below-cloud price action strengthens the continuation short case.

6. Fibonacci structure (most recent swing)

• Swing: Aug 28 H ~3.523 to Aug 29 L ~3.216.
• Retracements: 38.2% ≈ 3.333; 50% ≈ 3.369; 61.8% ≈ 3.404.
• Price tagged the 0.382 area repeatedly today and failed—clean confluence with hourly supply and BB mid.
• Read-through: 0.382 failure in a strong downswing is classic trend continuation; next leg typically retests or undercuts the swing low.

7. Volume/Order flow

• Daily: Down days (Aug 14/22/29) carry heavier volume than up days—distribution tone. Yesterday’s breakdown printed elevated volume, suggesting conviction on the sell side.
• Intraday: Upticks toward 3.31–3.34 showed less follow-through volume than sell impulses; VWAP intraday hovered near 3.30–3.31 and acted as a lid.
• Read-through: Rallies on lighter volume into clearly defined supply are shortable in trend.

8. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR recently ~0.25–0.35; hourly ATR ~0.03–0.05. A 24h move of 2–4% is well within typical variance. A retest of 3.22 (≈2% down) is a modest 1–2x hourly ATR—feasible.
• Read-through: Room for a controlled downside extension without needing capitulation.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag/rectangle: Post-breakdown consolidation within 3.24–3.34 under prior support, slanted slightly upward—textbook continuation setup. Measured move from flag height (~0.10) projects from ~3.29 toward ~3.19 if it breaks lower.
• Candlesticks: Inside day after a wide-range bearish expansion bar—continuation occurs more often than reversal unless the high of the inside day is taken out decisively (here ~3.34).

10. Elliott wave heuristic (contextual)

• Drop from ~3.52 to ~3.22 as wave 3, current chop as wave 4, a modest wave 5 could undercut 3.22 into 3.18–3.15 before a larger bounce. This aligns with measured move and support stack.

11. Market profile/VWAP intuition

• Intraday acceptance built around 3.30, but repeated rejection above that node and inability to migrate value higher indicate sellers remain in control. The 3.33–3.35 zone acts as a high-volume node/supply shelf now.

Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (≈60%): Early bounce into 3.31–3.34 fades; breakdown through 3.26 tests 3.22–3.23. Modest undercut of 3.215 is possible; daily close in the 3.22–3.28 band.
• Bullish alternative (≈25%): Strong reclaim and hold above 3.35 forces a squeeze toward 3.37–3.40 (0.5–0.618 retracement). Only above ~3.41 does the short thesis weaken materially in the 24h window.
• Bearish acceleration (≈15%): Swift breach of 3.215 with momentum carry to 3.18; if liquidity thins over the weekend, a wick toward 3.15 is possible before rebound.

Trade plan and execution

• Edge: Short the first decent pop into confluence resistance (3.31–3.34). This sells the 0.382 Fib + hourly BB mid + VWAP/MA cluster + prior broken support.
• Entry: 3.31 (limit sell) balances fill probability with optimal R/R. If price fails to bounce, a secondary trigger is a stop-sell on breakdown below 3.26 (not the primary plan but viable contingency).
• Take profit (24h target): 3.225 near the prior swing low and into the top of the 3.18–3.22 demand zone.
• Risk management (guidance): A logical protective stop would sit above 3.355–3.37 (above intraday supply and 0.5 Fib), yielding roughly 1:2 R/R to 3.225 from a 3.31 entry. While not required for the decision, it’s prudent for execution.

Why not long here?

• No bullish divergence on higher timeframe momentum, price below key MAs and cloud, and today’s 0.382 failure says sellers still control. Longs need a reclaim/hold above 3.35–3.37 to shift the short-term regime.

Bottom line

• Trend, momentum, and structure align for a sell-the-bounce setup. Expect a pop into 3.31–3.34 to be sold, targeting a retest/undercut of 3.22 within the next 24 hours. This offers clean invalidation and favorable reward-to-risk.