Sui at the Edge: Bear-Flag Breakdown Targets a 1.45 Pivot/Fib Confluence Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish. Expect a drift lower toward 1.46–1.45 with intraday bounces capped by 1.52–1.56 supply. Baseline path: small rebound to retest broken support (1.505–1.52), then continuation to S2/pivot-Fib confluence near 1.45.
• Rationale: Downtrend intact (price < 20/50D MAs, 8/21 EMA bear stack), momentum soft (RSI ~37, MACD below zero, histogram rolling down), and a tight late-November consolidation (bear flag) appears to be breaking lower. Volume has been fading on the bounce, suggesting weak demand. Classic pivots and 50% Fib retrace cluster at ~1.45.

Data context and structure

• Current price: 1.4991
• Data span: Daily candles from 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-28, plus the latest intraday 2025-11-29 19:35.
• Recent path: Peak ~3.9 mid-Sep, cascade lower since early Oct with a volatility shock 2025-10-10. November downtrend accelerated into 1.34–1.40 lows (Nov 21–23), then a shallow bounce to ~1.56 (Nov 25–27) and renewed softening to 1.499.

Market structure and price action

• Primary trend: Lower highs and lower lows from early November (2.16 on Nov 10) to late November. The relief bounce stalled before the first significant retracement level (couldn’t reclaim 1.66–1.75 zone), signaling a weak countertrend move.
• Local structure: Sideways channel 1.52–1.58 from Nov 24–28, now resolving lower with closes at 1.522 (Nov 28) and 1.499 (Nov 29 update). This is characteristic of a bear flag breakdown.
• Support/resistance map:
  • Immediate resistance: 1.505–1.52 (broken support turned resistance), 1.56–1.58 (late-Nov supply shelf), 1.60/1.62 (SMA20 underside/Kijun vicinity), 1.66–1.75 (Fib 38.2–50% of the Nov downswing).
  • Immediate support: 1.49 (pivot S1 cluster), 1.455 (pivot S2 and Fib 50% of the Nov 22–25 bounce), 1.43 (Fib 61.8%), 1.39–1.345 (swing lows).

Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA20 ≈ 1.644. Price (1.499) is below the 20D mean and trending beneath it since early Nov: bearish bias.
• SMA50 ≈ ~2.1 (approx). Price well below the 50D: broader downtrend intact.
• EMA8 ≈ 1.53 and EMA21 ≈ ~1.60–1.62 (approx). 8 < 21 with both sloping down: short-term bear trend continuation. Price now below EMA8, confirming momentum leaning down.
• Implication: Expect supply to appear on rallies into 1.52–1.56.

Momentum studies

• RSI(14) ≈ 37–38. Below neutral 50 but not yet oversold (<30). Room for further downside before typical mean-reversion triggers. RSI rebounded to ~mid-40s during the bounce and rolled over.
• Stoch RSI (qualitative): Dropped from overbought to sub-50 and likely heading toward 20; confirms a swing down within the larger range.
• MACD (12,26,9) qualitative: Below zero since early Nov. The bounce narrowed the negative histogram, but the last two sessions suggest a fresh roll-over toward more negative histogram bars. MACD line < signal: momentum bearish.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 1.64; estimated stdev ≈ 0.24 => Upper ≈ 2.12, Lower ≈ 1.16. Price sits in the lower third of the bands and below the midline, consistent with downtrend. Band width has compressed versus October, allowing for a directional expansion; current direction favors down.
• ATR(14) ≈ 0.12 (est.). A 3–8% daily swing is typical currently; a 0.04–0.08 move from 1.50 is well within 24h expected range.

Volume and participation

• Volume declined through the 1.52–1.58 consolidation, implying the rebound lacked conviction. The Nov 24 green day had stronger volume, but follow-through stalled quickly. OBV (qualitative) has not broken upwards; overall distribution bias persists.

Pattern recognition

• Bear flag: The multi-day 1.52–1.58 consolidation after the sharp Nov decline resembles a flag that has now broken lower toward 1.49. Measured move often approximates the prior leg (1.66 → 1.39 ≈ 0.27). A conservative extension from 1.52 would target roughly 1.52 − 0.27 ≈ 1.25 in a multi-day frame; in 24h, initial legs usually reach the nearest confluence at ~1.45 before any larger extension.
• No strong bullish reversal formations (no hammer, engulfing, or morning star) near current price.

Fibonacci analysis

• Bounce leg (Nov 22 low 1.345 → Nov 25/27 highs ~1.561):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 1.478; 50% ≈ 1.453; 61.8% ≈ 1.426.
  • Price has already lost the 38.2% (~1.478). Next magnetic levels are 1.453 (50%) and 1.426 (61.8%).
• Larger downswing (Nov 10 high 2.162 → Nov 22 low 1.345):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 1.657, 50% ≈ 1.753, 61.8% ≈ 1.849. The bounce failed below 1.657, indicating weak buyers.

Pivots and confluences (based on 2025-11-28 OHLC)

• Classic pivot P ≈ 1.5420; R1 ≈ 1.5755; R2 ≈ 1.6288; S1 ≈ 1.4887; S2 ≈ 1.4551.
• Current price ~1.499 is hovering between S1 (1.489) and P (1.542). A retest of 1.505–1.52 likely rejects, sending price toward S2 (1.455), which aligns with the 50% Fib of the last bounce. High-quality confluence.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below the Kumo, below Tenkan and Kijun. Tenkan likely ~1.51–1.53; Kijun ~1.60. Chikou lagging under price and cloud. Full-bear Ichimoku posture. Expect resistance at Tenkan on any intraday spike.

Anchored VWAP and mean reversion

• Anchored VWAP from the early-Nov break likely sits in 1.70–1.80. Price far below AVWAP, indicating supply dominance; rallies to mid-1.5s are still below fair value of that breakdown and tend to be sold.
• 20D z-score modestly negative; not extreme enough to demand an immediate mean-reversion long.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From the Nov 10 pivot high, we can label a 5-wave impulse down into Nov 22, followed by an ABC corrective bounce peaking Nov 25–27 near 1.56. The current roll looks like a new impulsive leg or the C wave’s terminal fade, targeting 1.45 first within 24h.

Statistical/quant approach

• With ATR ~0.12 and current price 1.50, a 0.04–0.06 move is comfortably inside the 1-sigma daily range. A 1.499 → 1.452 move (−3.1%) is well within typical 24h dispersion and lines up with S2/Fib50 confluence.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Retest 1.505–1.52, fail, drift to 1.46–1.45; wick to 1.44 possible; settle 1.45–1.48.
• Bull case (20%): Quick reclaim of 1.52 and squeeze to 1.56–1.58 (Tenkan/late-Nov highs). Needs volume; unlikely without a catalyst.
• Bear extension (25%): Clean break of 1.45 opens 1.43 and 1.39–1.345 sweep. Magnitude depends on liquidity through the Sunday/Monday transition.

Trade plan logic

• Edge lies in selling into minor strength into 1.50–1.52 with invalidation above 1.565–1.58 (recent supply). First objective: 1.455 (pivot S2/Fib50). Stretch: 1.43 (Fib 61.8%).
• R/R considerations: From 1.505 entry, TP1 1.455 = ~0.050 reward; a prudent stop above 1.565 risks ~0.060 (sub-1:1 to TP1). Using a partial scale-out 1.455 and leave runner to 1.43 improves blended R. Intraday execution can refine entry closer to 1.515 to improve R.

24-hour price path expectation

• Likely sequence: Small bounce to 1.505–1.515 during Asia/EU session → rejection → trend to 1.46–1.45 by US session → potential late-session stabilization above 1.45 unless momentum accelerates.

Decision

• Direction: Sell (Short).
• Entry: Optimal around 1.505 on a minor pullback/retest of broken support. If no bounce, a momentum add-on below 1.490 is also valid (noting higher slippage risk).
• Target: 1.452 initial take-profit aligns with pivot S2 and Fib 50% of the latest bounce. Secondary objective 1.430 if momentum remains strong.
• Invalidation (context, not an order here): Sustained reclaim above 1.565–1.58 would negate the setup and tilt toward 1.60–1.62.