TIA: Mean‑Reversion Pop Off the 0.83 Pivot — Targeting the 0.89–0.90 Supply Pocket in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (mean‑reversion) within a broader downtrend. Base case is a pop from the daily pivot (~0.832) toward 0.865–0.90, with failure risk if 0.80 breaks.
• Trade idea: Buy a slight dip into 0.830–0.832 (daily pivot/defended shelf) and target the 0.89–0.90 supply pocket (near R2/past HVN). Stop (for risk control) would sit below 0.795–0.800 (liquidity shelf) even though only TP is required here.

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher timeframe context: From mid‑September highs (~1.86) price has trended down, with a sharp regime change on 2025‑10‑10 (flash crash to 0.316 intraday; close ~0.922). Post‑event structure is a series of lower highs and lower lows, i.e., bearish primary trend.
• Recent structure (Nov): After the 11/07 spike to 1.171 (rejected; closing 1.063), price has stair‑stepped down with rallies sold. However, the last week shows basing behavior above 0.80–0.82 with shrinking downside momentum and several small‑body candles near lows—early accumulation signs.
• Key levels observed in the tape:
  • Support: 0.80–0.82 (multiple touches; defended), 0.763 (S2 from pivots), 0.73 (11/04 swing low; deep sweep risk if market lurches).
  • Resistance: 0.862–0.865 (R1 cluster), 0.885–0.905 (supply pocket/HVN), 0.933 (38.2% Fib), 0.95–1.00 (thick supply/POC region), 1.04–1.06 (61.8% Fib/11/10–11 area).

2. Momentum and oscillator suite

• RSI (14, daily): Estimated mid‑30s to low‑40s. Price made a higher low (0.824 11/16 vs 0.810 11/03) while RSI likely printed a higher low—bullish divergence. This supports a 24h bounce toward the mid band.
• Stochastic (daily): Likely crossed up from oversold (sub‑20/30 zone), consistent with short‑term upside follow‑through.
• MACD: Histogram contraction for several sessions suggests waning bearish momentum; signal cross is near. In downtrends, first cross often produces a mean‑reversion leg rather than trend reversal—fits a 0.86–0.90 target.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• EMA/SMA slope: 20‑day EMA/SMA trending down, hovering ~0.93–0.95. Price at 0.833 is below them (bearish regime), yet distance from 20‑day implies room for reversion.
• 50/200‑day MAs (approx): Much higher from the 1.3–1.5 zone due to prior regime; they cap the medium‑term, but they are not directly in play in the next 24h.
• Conclusion: Short‑term pop toward the 20‑day mean is plausible; broader trend remains down.

4. Volatility and range analytics

• ATR (14, daily): Approx 0.065–0.085 in November; a 24h swing of 6–9 cents is routine. From 0.833, that projects 0.77–0.91 range potential.
• Keltner Channels (20, 2x ATR proxy): Price sits in the lower channel; typical response is reversion to the midline when momentum cools—aligns with 0.86–0.90.

5. Bands and mean‑reversion tools

• Bollinger Bands (20, ~2 std): Mid ~0.93; lower ~0.75–0.78. Price is in the lower half, off the lower band with contracting spread—classic setup for a bounce toward the middle or at least the lower third (0.86–0.90).

6. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below cloud; Lagging span below price and cloud—bearish regime.
• Tenkan below Kijun, but Tenkan is flattening; flat Kijun near ~0.98 acts as a distant magnet. In 24h, the realistic magnet is the Tenkan zone/nearby resistances ~0.86–0.90.

7. Volume, profile, and liquidity

• Post‑crash distribution created HVNs around 0.89–0.92 and ~1.00–1.05. The 0.89–0.92 pocket is the nearest meaningful supply node overhead and is often tagged in mean‑reversion lifts.
• OBV/Volume behavior: After the 11/07 spike, subsequent declines occurred on decaying volume; the last few sessions show stabilization (no aggressive distribution), supportive of a bounce rather than an immediate breakdown.
• Liquidity: Obvious stop pools below 0.80 (round number) could be swept quickly if sellers press; but repeated defense suggests dip buyers are active above 0.80.

8. Fibonacci structures

• Swing anchor: 11/07 high 1.171 to 11/16 low 0.802.
  • 23.6% ~0.879
  • 38.2% ~0.933
  • 50% ~0.986
  • 61.8% ~1.038
• With price at 0.833, first upside pivot is 0.879 (23.6%), then 0.90–0.93 (R2/38.2% cluster). A 24h reach to 0.90 is within ATR; 0.933 is possible but less probable in one session without a catalyst.

9. Classic pivots (based on 11/16 H/L/C: 0.8708 / 0.8018 / 0.8242)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.8323 (today’s spot is almost exactly at P—balanced open).
• R1 ≈ 0.8628
• R2 ≈ 0.9013
• S1 ≈ 0.7938
• S2 ≈ 0.7633
• Trade logic: Buying near P to target R1/R2 is a standard mean‑reversion play, with S1 as invalidation area. The confluence of R2 ≈ 0.901 and the 0.90 supply pocket strengthens the take‑profit thesis.

10. VWAP and anchors

• Anchored VWAP from the 11/07 spike likely sits ~0.94–0.96; price is below (bearish MTF regime).
• Anchored VWAP from the early‑November selloff trough gravitates to ~0.85–0.86; price oscillating around/just below it—expect whipsaws but also magnetism toward mid‑0.86.

11. Candlestick and microstructure reads

• Multiple small bodies near lows (11/13–11/16), with lower wicks → absorption. 11/16 close 0.824 followed by tick up to 0.833 (current) suggests buyers are testing higher.
• Expect initial offers at 0.858–0.865 (R1) and thicker supply at 0.89–0.90 (R2/HVN), where profit‑taking is rational in a 24h window.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Mean‑reversion bounce from 0.83 pivot to 0.865 first, extension to 0.895–0.901 if momentum holds. Close near upper end of day’s range is possible on moderate volume.
• Bear case (30–35%): Failure to reclaim 0.85; drift back to 0.81–0.80. A decisive break and hold below 0.80 would open 0.794 (S1) then 0.763 (S2), but requires a push in broader market risk‑off.
• Tail risk (10%): Fast squeeze beyond 0.905 toward 0.93 (38.2% Fib) if shorts overcrowd intraday; less likely without a catalyst but not impossible.

13. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Edge comes from: (a) bullish momentum divergences, (b) price at daily pivot after multi‑session compression, (c) ATR‑compatible upside to R1/R2, (d) well‑defined invalidation under 0.80.
• Tactics: Enter via buy‑limit 0.830–0.832 to improve RR. Primary TP around 0.895–0.901 (R2/supply node). If management were allowed, partials at 0.863 (R1). Since only a single TP is requested here, we set 0.895 to balance probability and reward.

14. Risk management notes (contextual)

• Suggested protective stop (not part of the required fields): 0.795–0.800 to avoid the stop‑hunt under 0.80. That yields an approximate RR of (0.895−0.830)/(0.830−0.800) ≈ 2.17:1.
• If price impulsively breaks and holds above 0.865 early, chasing is less attractive; better to wait for a pullback toward 0.852–0.855 or stick with the original limit.

Call and 24h forecast

• Expect a constructive drift higher toward 0.865, with a realistic push into 0.89–0.90 if intraday breadth cooperates. I favor a Buy (long) from 0.830, targeting 0.895 within the next 24 hours.