Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP)

1. Trend Analysis (Long-term & Short-term)

• Long-term Daily Trend: The price chart exhibits several major waves since March 2025. After peaking around mid-April near $16.28 (April 26), TRUMP entered a broad volatile downtrend, finding a floor on April 6 at $7.91, before rebounding strongly post-April 21, and again reaching a secondary peak at $15.16 (May 10). The swings are steep and suggest the asset responds strongly to news or market events.
• Recent Trend: From May 22 ($14.71) to the end of May ($10.84 May 30), TRUMP retraced sharply (-26%), signaling strong selling pressure. The price has since bounced to $11.24 as of June 2, hinting at attempted base-building.

2. Support and Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance:
  • $12.50–$13.00: Multiple rally failures in late May.
  • $14.50–$15.50: Strong rejection area on several upswings.
• Key Supports:
  • $10.80–$11.00: Local floor tested Mar 9–11, May 30–31, and June 1–2.
  • $9.00–$10.00: Secondary base after April’s crash, heavy volume observed here, notable on Mar 30-Apr 10.

3. Candlestick & Chart Patterns

• Recent candles: The last 48 hours show long wicks and relatively small real bodies, typical of indecision and lower conviction in the sell-off. Monday (June 2) and Sunday (June 1) both saw higher lows and closes vs. Friday-Monday's lows—possible bullish exhaustion in the selling.
• Potential Bullish Reversal/Double Bottom: $10.83 (May 30) to $11.25 (June 2) is a higher low above $10.20 (early May), forming a double/triple bottom around $11.00. This signals potential accumulation and exhaustion of sellers.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume Decrease on Decline: The sharpest selloffs (April 23 and May 23) had enormous spikes in volume (2B+), but the recent bounce is on slightly lower volume. Downtrend volume is thinning out (595M May 30, to ~254M June 1), hinting sellers are losing interest.
• Volume Clustering at Bottoms: Local volume peaks at lows often precede recoveries—recent volume surge (June 2, 220M+) along with a stabilizing price could indicate accumulation.

5. Moving Average Analysis (Emulated)**

• Short-term (5–10 day): The rapid drop in May means short MAs are likely still below price or inflecting upwards now.
• Crossover Potential: If price holds/retakes $11.30–$11.50 zone, shorter MAs will start to turn up, signaling a change in momentum if sustained.

6. Momentum Oscillators (RSI/Emulated Stochastic)**

• RSI (Emulated): With sharp price declines and local base near $11.00, RSI is likely rebounding from oversold conditions (<35). The inflections, especially after long selling, often flag short-term bottoming.
• MACD/Histograms (Emulated): The contracting range and potential for histogram ticking up (from negative to less negative) is consistent with a loss of downside momentum.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• March-April low ($7.90) to April high ($16.28):
  • 38.2% retrace: ~$12.43
  • 50% retrace: ~$12.09
  • 61.8% retrace: ~$11.75
  • Today’s price ($11.23) is just at/below the 61.8% retrace, a strong zone for reversals.

8. Volatility & ATR (Emulated)**

• Volatility remains elevated: Post-May selloff, the range contracted but remains larger than average. This implies price could move $0.2–$0.6 in a single day.

9. Order Book Psychology & Market Sentiment

• Capitulation Signs: Sharp May dump, lighter volume and smaller candles suggest many weak hands are out.
• Range Trading Opportunity: Traders are likely keen to buy near this base for a reversion trade.

10. Synthesis and 24h Prediction

• Immediate Bias: Multiple technical signals (double bottom, RSI reversal, volume contraction at lows, Fibonacci) indicate that TRUMP is at/near a crucial support, with limited downside short term and a higher probability of an upside bounce.
• Expected Move: Price likely to test $11.50–$11.90 (first resistance), with good potential to revisit $12.20–$12.50 should momentum continue. Downside risk is to $10.80, with stops below $10.70 to minimize exposure.

Conclusion

Given the technical setup, the optimal strategy is to buy on weakness within the $11.20–$11.25 range for a potential upside reversal. Set a target at the previous consolidation and Fibonacci resistance around $12.20, with a stop just below the multi-test support at $10.80.

Risk Management

• Risk/reward is attractive (Risk: $0.45, Reward: $0.97 on $11.23 → $12.20 move)
• Position Size: Adjust based on risk tolerance; this is best sized as a swing trade setup, not a long-term hold unless major catalysts emerge.

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Summary:

• Double/triple bottom, volume trough, and RSI/Fibonacci confluence suggest sellers are fatiguing at support. Probability of near-term mean reversion or relief rally is favorable. Enter long near $11.23, target $12.20.