TRUMP surges past multi-week resistance: Buy the dip near 8.9 for a run at 9.75

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Daily structure (Aug → Nov): After the Oct 10 capitulation to ~5.41, price formed a multi-week base between ~5.7–6.3, then staged a trend transition with a strong mark-up leg from Oct 27 onward. Today’s session expanded that advance with a decisive break above the late-Oct swing highs (8.25–8.51). Intraday high printed ~9.49 before a pullback to ~8.97, preserving most of the breakout gains. Structure is now higher-highs/higher-lows on daily and hourly.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): Persistent staircase of HH/HL from ~7.80 → 9.49, pullback to ~8.97. A sharp rejection at 9.50 created a short-term pause but the prior trend remains intact while price holds above 8.80–9.00 support.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 7.25 (approximate): Price well above. This marks a clear bullish phase and expansion away from the short-term mean.
• 50-day SMA (approximate, given Aug/Sept data): likely in the low-to-mid 8s. Price > 50-SMA → medium-term trend bullish; the 20>50 crossover likely occurred recently, a constructive signal.
• Hourly EMAs (10/21/50): Intraday momentum showed sustained EMA stacking during the up-leg; the late-session pullback tested but did not decisively break the 21–50 EMA cluster, consistent with consolidation rather than trend failure.

Implication: Trend bias is up on both daily and hourly. Pullbacks favored for entries.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (estimate): mid-60s after the >+15% 2-day burst since Nov 8–10. That’s bullish but not extreme; room to extend to 70–75 before major mean-reversion risk rises.
• Hourly RSI: Reached overbought near the 19:00 spike to 9.50, then cooled toward neutral-high (mid-50s/low-60s). This reset within an uptrend often precedes another attempt higher if support holds.
• Stoch RSI (hourly, qualitative): Cycled down from an overbought reading after the 9.5 spike; now resetting, which supports a buy-the-dip setup provided price stays above 8.85–9.00.

Implication: Momentum remains positive; overbought conditions relieved, creating room for another push.

4. MACD (trend-momentum blend)

• Daily MACD: Histogram turned positive and expanding; MACD line above signal with increasing separation post Nov 4–5 turn. That aligns with an early-to-mid impulse phase rather than late-stage exhaustion.
• Hourly MACD: Rolled over on the 20:00–21:00 pullback but holding above the zero-line; shallow resets in an uptrend typically resolve higher if supports do not break.

Implication: Momentum thrust still in effect; shallow resets favor continuation.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Mid-band ~7.25; upper band likely ~9.0–9.1 after the recent expansion. Today’s wick to 9.5 briefly pierced the upper band (volatility breakout) and snapped back toward the band. Closing just under the upper band is consistent with consolidation before another attempt up.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based): Upper channel approximated in the mid-9s, with price pressing it intraday — a typical signature of trend expansion days.
• ATR (daily): Expanded post-October shock; current realized range today ~1.81 (7.68–9.49). Expect elevated intraday ranges to persist. A 24h move of ~0.7–1.0 remains plausible.

Implication: Volatility expansion supports trend days and measured pullbacks; risk/position sizing should respect elevated ATR.

6. Volume and flow

• Volume trend: Up-moves carried higher volume (notably 04:00, 12:00–15:00, 19:00), while the main pullback candle (20:00) came on lower volume compared to the earlier up-thrust. This is accumulation-favored behavior.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative read): Rising into the breakout and not materially impaired by the late pullback → net demand remains dominant.
• VWAP and anchored VWAP: Intraday price spent the bulk of the session above session VWAP; after the pullback, price remains marginally above a rough anchored VWAP from the 04:00 breakout (~8.2) and near a day-weighted VWAP band around 8.8–8.9. Reclaims/holds above VWAP typically precede continuation.

Implication: Demand has been active on advances; retracements are being bought.

7. Support and resistance (levels and zones)

• Immediate supports: 8.88–9.00 (hourly structure and day VWAP), 8.65–8.75 (post-breakout shelf), 8.25–8.50 (late-Oct swing-high area, now secondary support).
• Immediate resistances: 9.50 (today’s spike high and intraday supply), 9.67–9.75 (Aug resistance cluster and classic R1), 9.95–10.20 (Aug 14 high zone).

Map: Price has broken above a heavy 8.6–8.9 supply band and is attempting to build value just above it. Expect retests of 8.9 to be defended if trend is to persist.

8. Fibonacci structure

• Major swing A (Oct 10 low): ~5.405 → swing B (Oct 29 high): ~8.254 → swing C (Nov 4 low): ~6.967.
• Extensions from C: 0.618 ext ~8.73 (achieved), 0.786 ext ~9.21 (achieved), 1.000 ext ~9.82 (next magnet), 1.272 ext ~10.59 (stretch target).

Implication: The 1.000 extension at ~9.82 aligns closely with R1/R2 confluence and prior August resistance bands. It’s a logical 24h upside objective on continuation.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely below (given weeks of basing). Lagging span should be free above price. A bullish configuration with rising Tenkan > Kijun is consistent with ongoing impulse.

Implication: Pullbacks to the Tenkan (roughly low 8s) are buyable while the structure holds.

10. Donchian channels and breakout context

• 20-day Donchian upper bound sits near prior August highs (9.6–10.2). Today’s poke into the 9.5s is the first real tag of that upper boundary region since the October shock. Breakouts tend to consolidate just beneath these bands before a measured follow-through attempt.

11. Pivot points (based on today’s H/L/C)

• P ≈ 8.715; S1 ≈ 7.935; R1 ≈ 9.750; R2 ≈ 10.530.

Implication: R1 ≈ 9.75 coincides with Fib 1.0 target (~9.82) cluster; S1 well below current price, underscoring the magnitude of the move.

12. Candlestick signals

• Hourly: 19:00 expansion candle followed by a 20:00 long red rejection (shooting-star/bearish belt-hold type), then 21:00 stabilization near 8.97. This sequence typically implies a pause/reversion to mean (8.9–9.1) before trend continuation if buyers defend.
• Daily (developing): Long upper wick but a strong green body from yesterday’s 7.70 region. If tomorrow opens firm above 8.9 and bids step in, the upper wick often becomes the springboard for a second thrust.

13. Wyckoff lens

• Accumulation (5.5–6.3), markup (late Oct), reaction (Nov 1–4), secondary test and re-accumulation (7.3–8.0), then sign of strength today (9.5 probe). Current phase resembles a backing-up action to the edge of the creek (8.9–9.0) before potential continuation.

14. Regression channel and mean-reversion

• A simple OLS regression on the last 2–3 weeks would slope upward with current price near the upper deviation band after today’s spike. A dip toward the midline (~8.8–8.9) is statistically reasonable and matches our preferred entry zone.

15. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Bullish continuation (55%): Defend 8.88–9.00, rotate higher to 9.50, then squeeze through to 9.70–9.85 (R1/Fib1.0).
• Range/consolidation (30%): Chop 8.80–9.40 as volatility compresses before the next leg.
• Bearish pullback (15%): Loss of 8.80 triggers a rotation toward 8.55–8.65; trend risk only rises materially below 8.45–8.50.

16. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Buy dips in an uptrend with expanding momentum and strong volume confirmation.
• Optimal entry: 8.88–8.95 (retest of intraday support and near day VWAP). This lets us avoid paying the 9.5 rejection premium and aligns with mean reversion.
• Profit target (24h): 9.70–9.85 zone. Choose 9.75 to sit just under R1 and below the 1.0 Fib extension (9.82) for higher fill probability.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk planning): Below 8.44–8.50 (loss of structure). Not part of the order fields but critical for risk control.
• Optional momentum add: If price reclaims and holds above 9.55 with rising volume, a breakout add-on can target 9.95–10.20. Primary target remains 9.75 within the 24h window.

17. Why not short here?

• Despite the 9.5 rejection, trend, breadth, and volume flow favor upside. The rejection candle came on lower relative volume than the preceding thrusts, and the broader structure broke multi-week resistance. Shorting into a fresh breakout with supportive internals carries unfavorable expectancy unless 8.80 fails decisively.

Bottom line prediction (24h): Upward bias with expected range 8.55–9.85; base case is a dip to ~8.9 followed by a push to the 9.7–9.8 zone.