Capitulation Flush, VWAP Reclaim: Setup for a 24h Pivot Squeeze Toward 5.10+

Summary

• Instrument: OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP), USD quoted
• Current price: 4.9299
• Horizon: next 24 hours
• Bias: Short-term bullish (mean-reversion bounce) within a broader daily downtrend
• Thesis: Price flushed below the 20D lower Bollinger/Keltner envelope in early session (low ~4.794), printed a high-volume hammer/reversal on the 1h, reclaimed intraday VWAP and the 1h Tenkan/Kijun area, and is now compressing just under the daily pivot. Probabilities favor a squeeze toward 5.00–5.15 over the next 24h, provided 4.85–4.88 holds on pullbacks.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Daily structure (since early Nov): series of lower highs/lows from ~8.1 into ~4.95, i.e., a persistent descending channel. Today’s intraday undercut (4.79) and reclaim forms a potential bear-trap/stop-run at new local lows, a common precursor to short-term bounces within downtrends.
• Recent daily closes: 12/18 5.012, 12/19 5.158, 12/20 5.090, 12/21 5.068, 12/22 4.975, 12/23 4.947. Slope negative but with decelerating downside; bodies shrinking into 12/23 suggested seller exhaustion. 12/24 intraday candle currently hammer-like.
• Intraday (1h, 12/24): • 08:00 hour: capitulation wick to ~4.794 with the session’s peak volume (~24.5M) and immediate buyback → hammer/flush-and-reclaim signature. • Subsequent hours: higher lows, reclaim of 4.90, push to ~4.93–4.93 into the close, indicating dip absorption and short covering.
• Micro market structure: After the flush, price formed an intraday ascending triangle (rising lows vs. 4.92–4.93 cap) and broke marginally upward late session, consistent with pressure building toward 4.99–5.05.

2. Support/Resistance and levels (confluence)

• Intraday supports: 4.80–4.83 (flush low/hammer base), 4.85–4.88 (post-reclaim bid zone), 4.90–4.91 (VWAP vicinity, micro shelf).
• Resistances: 4.945 (daily pivot P), 4.989 (R1), 5.03 (R2), 5.05–5.15 (supply shelf/Fib 38.2% target), 5.30 (swing supply/50% retrace), 5.56 (prior breakdown area/61.8%).
• Classic pivot math from 12/23 (H/L/C ≈ 4.9868/4.9008/4.9472): • P ≈ 4.9449 • R1 ≈ 4.9890, R2 ≈ 5.0309 • S1 ≈ 4.9030, S2 ≈ 4.8589 Price is coiling just below P; a clean break and hold over 4.945 typically targets R1/R2.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 5.44 (down-sloping). Price is ~9.3% below the mid-band, stretched on the downside → mean-reversion incentive.
• 50D SMA (approx): still above 6, firmly bearish secularly.
• 1h EMAs (12/26): fast EMA curling up and attempting cross over slow EMA; post-flush momentum supports an intraday upturn.

4. Volatility and ranges

• 14D ATR (approx): 0.18–0.22. A 24h swing of 3.5–4.5% is typical, giving room to test 4.99–5.14 from 4.93.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5xATR): price pierced/bounced off the lower band early session; closes migrating toward mid-channel signal a standard reversion setup.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): low 30s and curling up; prior days showed RSI lower-low vs. price marginal lower-low → mild positive divergence.
• 1h RSI: recovered to the mid-50s after sub-30 oversold at the flush; momentum now constructive for a push into upper-50s/60s on a 5.00–5.10 test.
• MACD (daily): below zero but histogram contracting toward zero → downside momentum waning.
• MACD (1h): bull cross after the 08:00 reversal; histogram positive, consistent with near-term upside.
• Stochastic (1h): exiting oversold and trending up; supports continuation until overbought (~80) near resistance.
• CCI/MFI (intraday): CCI flipped positive; MFI rebounded with volume on up candles, indicating real dip buying rather than purely passive bounces.

6. Bands and envelopes

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): mid ~5.44, lower ≈ 4.88 (est.). Price wicked under the lower band to ~4.79 and re-entered the envelope—a classic mean-revert buy signal with initial target the band midline’s direction (not necessarily reach). Realistic 24h aim: 4.99–5.14.
• Donchian (20): new lower channel low set and immediately rejected; often leads to retrace into prior range.

7. Volume, OBV, and profile

• Volume trend (daily): declining through mid-December as price fell → supply exhaustion risk. Today’s intraday spike at the low (08:00) indicates capitulation and absorption.
• OBV (intraday): inflected higher post flush, confirming accumulation on up-swings.
• Volume profile (session): heaviest prints around 4.80–4.85 and 4.90–4.92; if price holds above 4.90, the path of least resistance is toward 4.99–5.03 where supply increases.

8. VWAP and session dynamics

• Intraday VWAP: reclaimed after the morning selloff; subsequent retests held. Maintaining VWAP support is bullish for further rotation toward R1/R2.
• Time-of-day/holiday context: Thin holiday liquidity (Dec 24–25) can amplify moves via stop runs. That risk cuts both ways but often favors mean-reversion squeezes once shorts are offside.

9. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: price is below cloud; Kijun above price (bearish regime). Short-term bounces often fade into Kijun/flat spans (mid-5s), but that’s beyond a 24h conservative target.
• 1h: Tenkan crossed above Kijun post-flush; price is testing/entering a thin cloud. A hold above 4.91–4.93 could yield a clean cloud breakout toward 5.00–5.10.

10. Fibonacci mapping (swing 12/10 high ~5.955 to 12/24 low ~4.794)

• 23.6% ≈ 5.07
• 38.2% ≈ 5.14
• 50% ≈ 5.37
• 61.8% ≈ 5.60
• The 23.6–38.2% band (5.07–5.14) aligns with R2/near-term supply—an excellent 24h target cluster.

11. ADX/Trend strength

• Daily ADX (est.): ~20–25 with −DI > +DI (bearish trend but not extreme). This supports the idea of bounces that respect resistance rather than trend reversals.
• 1h +DI > −DI post-flush, consistent with the proposed squeeze.

12. Candlestick/Pattern signals

• 1h hammer on capitulation low + follow-through → reliable short-term reversal pattern.
• Intraday ascending triangle breakout attempt around 4.92–4.93 resistance.
• Daily potentially forming a hammer-type candle (pending close), which would reinforce the next session’s bid if confirmed.

13. Risk management and scenario analysis

• Base case (≈60–65%): Hold above 4.88–4.91 → break 4.945 pivot → test 4.989 (R1) → extension to 5.03 (R2) and into the 5.07–5.14 Fib 23.6–38.2% zone. Expected range: 4.86–5.12.
• Bear case (≈35–40%): Failure at pivot; fade back below VWAP and 4.90; retest 4.86 (S2) and potentially 4.82–4.80. A daily close below 4.80 would reopen 4.70s, but probability lower in the next 24h absent new supply.
• Preferred stop for a tactical long (not part of order schema): ~4.82 (below S2 and the hammer base). From a 4.91 entry to 4.82 stop: risk ≈ 0.09. Target 5.14: reward ≈ 0.23. R:R ≈ 2.5:1.

14. Synthesis across tools

• Mean-reversion tools (Bollinger/Keltner/RSI) favor bounce.
• Momentum (MACD/RSI/Stoch) turned up on 1h, daily momentum waning negative.
• Levels (Pivot/Fib) line up at 4.99–5.14 as the next magnet after a pivot reclaim.
• Volume/OBV/VWAP confirm genuine dip buying and constructive intraday control.
• Overarching trend remains bearish; thus we target the first thick supply zone, not a full trend reversal.

Prediction for next 24 hours

• Expected path: modest pullback toward 4.90–4.91 to refill liquidity, then push through the daily pivot (4.945) to tag 4.99 (R1) and extend into 5.07–5.14. Probability-weighted move: +3% to +5% from current, with downside risk limited to ~4.82 on invalidation.

Trading plan (tactical)

• Long entry: Limit around 4.91 (near VWAP/mini shelf). If not filled, consider pivot-break chase only on strong breadth above 4.95 with tight risk.
• Take-profit: 5.14 (Fib 38.2% + supply confluence). Optional partials: 4.99 (R1), 5.03 (R2).
• Invalidation/stop (advisory): 4.82 (below S2/hammer base).