VET poised for a neckline hold-and-go: Buy the dip toward 0.0246 in the next 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation after reclaiming the 20‑day mean; expect a grind higher toward 0.02430–0.02470 with buy‑the‑dip opportunities intraday.
• Setup: Post-selloff basing and a nascent up‑swing from the 9/30 pivot low. Hourly trend is up with higher lows; daily momentum is turning from oversold. Price sits near a 50% Fib retrace of the 9/18→9/30 decline.
• Plan: Buy pullbacks into 0.02362–0.02370, target 0.02460–0.02470 within 24h, invalidation if back below 0.02317.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: From a July high near 0.0291, VET entered a corrective downtrend into 9/25–9/30 (lows 0.02141 and 0.02171). Since 10/01, structure shifted to a short-term sequence of higher lows/higher highs.
• Support/resistance (spot 0.02380):
  • Nearby supports: 0.02362–0.02368 (hourly pullback zone/VWAP area), 0.02335 (intraday higher low cluster), 0.02318 (10/01 close), 0.02292 (9/22 break level), 0.02228 (9/26 bounce), 0.02171 (9/30 low), 0.02141 (9/25 capitulation).
  • Overhead resistances: 0.02395–0.02408 (intraday supply; 10/03 high 0.02416), 0.02433–0.02440 (61.8% retrace/late‑Aug pivot), 0.02495, 0.02538–0.02562 (September value area), 0.02610.
• Pattern context: Potential double‑bottom (9/25 and 9/30) with neckline ~0.02355–0.02370; a sustained hold above the neckline points to a measured move toward ~0.0260 over multiple sessions; for the next 24h, 0.0243–0.0247 is the realistic objective window.

2. Moving averages

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 0.02353 (computed from the last 20 daily closes). Price has reclaimed and is holding above it—bullish short‑term mean reversion.
• 50‑day SMA (approx) ~0.0245–0.0248 and likely sloping down; spot remains below it, indicating the broader trend is still corrective, but a retest is plausible if momentum persists.
• Hourly 50‑EMA bias: Price has held above the hourly 50‑EMA for most of 10/03, consistent with an intraday uptrend.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 37–39 and rising (from prior oversold). This is the classic “bear to neutral” transition where additional upside follow‑through is common before momentum stalls.
• RSI(1h) (qualitative): Mid‑50s to high‑50s after a minor pullback—room to push into 60s on another leg up.
• MACD daily (qualitative): Histogram contracting toward zero with the fast line curling upward—pre‑cross posture; bullish inflection risk within days. On 1h, MACD recently crossed up and remains supportive.
• Stochastic daily: Emerging from oversold and crossing up through the midline—supports a push to test overhead resistance.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Price moved from the lower band (9/30) to around/above the midline, typically a continuation signal toward the upper band on follow‑through sessions. Upper‑band vicinity for the next 24h aligns with ~0.0246–0.0250 on intraday readings.
• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.0010–0.0012. A 1× ATR push from 0.0238 projects 0.0248–0.0250 on topside scenarios; downside 1× ATR would revisit ~0.0227–0.0228. For a 24h horizon, aiming for ~0.8–1.0× ATR is reasonable risk/reward.
• Keltner Channel (qualitative): Price is inside the channel and rising toward the upper band; no overextension.

5. Fibonacci and mean reversion

• Using 9/18 high 0.025947 to 9/30 low 0.021713 (range 0.004234):
  • 38.2% = 0.023329 (cleared and held intraday).
  • 50% = 0.023830 (current price sits right on this—often a pause zone before challenging 61.8%).
  • 61.8% = 0.024331 (primary intraday target/resistance for next leg up).
  • Extension above 61.8% opens 0.02495–0.02505 (78.6% area) if momentum accelerates.

6. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume rose on the 10/01–10/02 up days vs late‑September, signaling genuine dip‑buying interest. That strengthens the validity of the neckline reclaim.
• OBV (qualitative): Hooked higher the last two sessions; not yet at September highs, but the direction is constructive.
• Hourly volume spikes on pushes (15:00–16:00 UTC 10/03) with pullbacks on lighter volume—bullish volume character.

7. Intraday structure (hourly)

• Clear rising channel on 10/03: HLs around 0.02360–0.02365 and swing highs 0.02416. Pullback at 17:00 tagged ~0.02362 and bounced—healthy reset.
• VWAP (session 10/03) sits near ~0.02366–0.02370; price is consolidating above VWAP—buyers in control intraday.
• Micro liquidity: 0.02395–0.02405 has recent supply; a clean breakout above 0.02410–0.02416 likely speeds a move into 0.02433–0.02440.

8. Alternative lenses

• Wyckoff read: Selling Climax (SC) 9/25, Secondary Test (ST) 9/30, Automatic Rally (AR) 10/01–10/03; now probing Phase B resistance. Short‑term, this favors further testing higher until supply is proven.
• Elliott Wave (tactical): Wave 1 from 0.02141→0.02318, Wave 2 to 0.02207, Wave 3 to ~0.02416, Wave 4 pullback to ~0.02362, prospective Wave 5 objective 0.02435–0.02465 before a larger consolidation.
• Market Profile/value areas (qualitative): Developing value shifted up toward 0.0236–0.0238; Value Area High likely encroaches on 0.0239–0.0241. Acceptance above there targets the next composite node near 0.02435–0.02440.

9. Scenario mapping (24h)

• Bullish base case (60%): Hold 0.02362–0.02370, then leg higher to tag 0.02433–0.02440; extension print 0.02460–0.02470 if momentum breakout triggers.
• Range/chop (25%): Ping‑pong between 0.02355 and 0.02410 as the market digests the 50% Fib. This favors buying dips, lighter size.
• Bearish risk (15%): Lose 0.02355 → slide to 0.02335 and potentially 0.02318; only a decisive close back below 0.02317 would negate the immediate bullish setup and risk deeper tests to 0.0229x.

10. Trade plan and levels

• Direction: Buy dips (Long) in the prevailing intraday up‑channel; momentum add on breakout is secondary.
• Optimal entry: 0.02366 (limit) sitting at VWAP/HL retest zone where demand has been defending.
• Profit target (24h): 0.02464 (aligns with 61.8%→upper supply confluence and typical 0.8–1.0× ATR reach from here). A scale‑out earlier at 0.02433–0.02440 is prudent if monitoring actively.
• Invalidation (not part of order schema, but critical): A firm break and hourly close below 0.02317 erodes the long thesis; for tighter risk, use 0.02335.

Why Buy now?

• Reclaim of 20‑SMA + rising hourly trend + improving momentum and participation.
• Price is sitting at the 50% retrace; typical path is a test of 61.8% (~0.02433) with probability of an upper‑deviation toward ~0.0246 if intraday resistance gives.
• Risk is well‑defined on a dip entry with favorable R:R to the 0.0246s.

24h outlook

• Expected range: 0.02345–0.02470.
• Most probable path: Early‑session dip into 0.02362–0.02370 gets bought → break through 0.02395–0.02410 → tag 0.02433–0.02440 → potential extension to 0.02460–0.02470 before stalling.