Tradzar
VeChain Price Analysis Powered by AI
VET Post-Flush Bounce Looks Exhausted: Favor a Sell-Rally Setup Into 0.0088 Resistance
1) Market structure (Daily)
Current price: 0.008614
Primary trend
- From 2025-11-07 high ~0.01773 to current 0.00861, VET remains in a clear macro downtrend (lower highs/lower lows).
- The late-January leg accelerated lower:
- 2026-01-29 close ~0.00935 → 2026-01-31 close ~0.00843 (sharp breakdown)
- Followed by a weak stabilization 0.00817–0.00860 into 2026-02-03.
Key swing levels (Daily)
- Resistance zones (overhead supply):
- 0.00920–0.00940 (recent breakdown area: 01/30–01/31 opens/closes)
- 0.01000–0.01030 (multiple pivots 01/20–01/28)
- Support zones:
- 0.00800–0.00817 (02/01 close 0.008169; intraday low cluster near 0.00801)
- 0.00788–0.00790 (01/31 daily low ~0.007886)
Interpretation: price is below prior support, so rebounds tend to be sold into until it reclaims 0.0092+ and holds.
2) Candlestick/price-action read
Daily candles (last few days)
- 01/31: large bearish expansion (range down to ~0.007886) = capitulation-like impulse.
- 02/01: small continuation lower close (0.008169) = weak follow-through.
- 02/02: higher close (0.008605) with wide range (low 0.00791) = attempted reversal but still within a bearish context.
- 02/03 (so far): close near 0.008614, essentially flat vs 02/02 close, suggesting stalling after the bounce.
Intraday (hourly) micro-structure
- Clear flush to ~0.00801 around 18:00 and then an impulse rebound to 0.00877–0.00883 (20:00–21:00).
- This looks like a liquidity sweep below 0.0082 followed by short-covering / dip-buying.
- However, the rebound topped at ~0.00883, still below major resistance (0.0092+), implying the move is more likely a bear-market bounce than a confirmed trend change.
3) Volatility & range analysis
Recent realized volatility (daily ranges)
- 01/31 daily range: ~0.009231 high to ~0.007886 low → ~16.9% range.
- 02/02 daily range: 0.008752 high to 0.007910 low → ~10.6% range.
- 02/03 daily range: 0.008829 high to 0.008010 low → ~10.2% range.
Volatility is elevated but contracting from the 01/31 shock. After volatility contraction following a breakdown, price often makes a secondary move in the direction of the dominant trend (down) unless it reclaims key breakdown levels.
4) Moving averages (inference from series)
While exact MA values aren’t computed here, the price behavior strongly implies:
- Price is far below the December/early-January value area (~0.0105–0.0120) → likely below 20D/50D.
- In downtrends, the 20D/50D act as dynamic resistance, typically producing selling pressure on rallies.
Conclusion: rallies toward 0.0092–0.0094 are likely to meet systematic selling.
5) Momentum (RSI/MACD style interpretation)
- The drop from ~0.0102–0.0103 to ~0.0080 in a few sessions suggests daily momentum likely reached oversold and is now mean-reverting.
- The sharp intraday bounce from ~0.00801 to ~0.00883 signals short-term momentum positive, but not enough to break structure.
Bias: short-term bounce risk remains, but trend-following momentum remains bearish until 0.0092+ is reclaimed.
6) Volume/participation
- Daily volumes during the decline increased (e.g., 01/31 ~42.8M, 02/02 ~34.1M, 02/03 ~30.1M).
- This is consistent with distribution / risk-off selling into the breakdown, then reduced participation as price chops.
- On the hourly data, the strongest activity appears during the rebound phase (19:00–20:00). That often happens in bear-market squeezes.
7) Classical pattern context
Bear flag / weak base possibility
- After a sharp leg down (01/31), price is building a small consolidation around 0.0082–0.0088.
- Without a breakout above 0.0092–0.0094, this consolidation statistically behaves more like a bear flag / pause than a reversal base.
Support retest probability
- The market already proved it can trade 0.00801–0.00791 recently.
- If price fails to take out 0.00883 and rolls over, a retest of ~0.0080 within 24h is plausible.
8) 24-hour forecast (scenario-based)
Given: dominant downtrend + post-flush rebound + stalled under resistance.
Base case (higher probability): mild down / retest
- Expect a drift lower back toward 0.00820 → 0.00805.
- If 0.00800 breaks, next magnet is 0.00788–0.00790 (prior daily low).
Alternative case (squeeze continuation): push into resistance then reject
- A push to 0.00885–0.00910 is possible (short-term momentum still warm), but likely to face selling.
- Unless it closes and holds above 0.00920, upside is probably limited.
Net: downside retest risk outweighs upside continuation over the next 24 hours.
9) Trade plan logic
Because price is sitting mid-range after a rebound, the “optimal” entry is not at market, but closer to resistance where R:R improves.
- Short entry area: near the local supply/impulse high zone 0.00878–0.00885 (recent hourly peak region).
- Profit target: near the demand zone 0.00810 first, with extension to 0.00790 if breakdown.
This aligns with:
- Downtrend (sell rallies)
- Bear-flag structure
- Overhead resistance below 0.0092
Conclusion
Next 24h bias: bearish-to-neutral with higher odds of retest of 0.00810/0.00800 than a sustained breakout.
Action: Sell (short) on a bounce into resistance.