WLD at the 70¢ fulcrum: Setup favors a 24h relief bounce toward 72–73¢

Executive view

• Instrument: Worldcoin (WLD) in USD
• Current price: 0.7010
• Regime: Persistent medium-term downtrend since early November, now testing psychological round-number support at 0.70 with intraday stabilization attempts.
• 24h bias: Mildly bullish for a relief bounce toward 0.72–0.73, while acknowledging breakdown risk into 0.69/0.66 if 0.70 fails.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): After the Sept blow-off (2.14 high on Sep 9) and October shock (Oct 10 extreme low intraday 0.3646, close 0.8733), price has been in a sequence of lower highs since Nov 1 (0.8941) and lower lows toward current 0.70. The daily closes over the past two weeks show a controlled grind lower rather than capitulation.
• Intermediate trend lines: From 11/1 (~0.894) through 11/8–11/10 (0.85–0.83) to 11/14 (0.704), the descending channel top presently projects ~0.73–0.74; channel base sits ~0.69–0.70. Price is hugging the lower rail, where mean-reversion bounces often originate.
• Intraday (1h): Lower highs stepping down 0.738 → 0.734 → 0.731 → 0.729 → 0.721, with a notable higher low vs the 11/14 23:00 low (0.6957) as of 11/15 08:00 (0.7019). That subtle higher low hints at early stabilization near the 0.70 figure.

2. Moving averages and distance-from-mean

• 20-day SMA (est): ≈ 0.803 (average of last 20 closes). Price is ~12.7% below the 20SMA, a statistically stretched condition for this series.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): Above the 20SMA and sloping down; the slope spread confirms a bearish medium-term regime but also increases the odds of short-lived mean-reversion pops.
• Mean-reversion lens: Deviation from 20SMA of ~-1.6 standard deviations (approx) frequently precedes 1–3 day bounces. Not a trend change signal, but constructive for a tactical long.

3. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: ≈ 0.075. With price ~0.70, a 24h typical move of ~10–12% implies a likely range 0.63–0.78 if fully realized. Recent realized ranges have compressed vs the Oct shocks, which marginally supports odds of a bounce rather than disorderly breakdown.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid ~0.803, lower band estimated ~0.66–0.67. Spot at 0.70 is closer to the lower band than the mid; tags/near-tags are often followed by 1–2 sessions of mean reversion toward 0.72–0.75.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) qualitative: Low 30s to high 30s zone; not deeply oversold, but below 50 and near classical bounce territory. The slope has been flattening as price approaches 0.70.
• Hourly RSI: Dipped near or slightly below 30 during the 0.70 test; latest higher low in price with a less-negative oscillator slope suggests a mild bullish divergence forming.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with a negative histogram; momentum remains bearish but the histogram’s rate of deterioration has slowed, typical near short-term supports. Hourly MACD is weak but flattening.

5. Volume, flows, and profile

• October’s capitulation bars reset the volume profile; since early November, volume spikes have tended to occur on down days into support and on 11/7’s sharp bounce day. The recent drift to 0.70 has not been accompanied by outsized sell volume, suggesting supply is present but not panicked.
• OBV (qualitative): Still below its early-Nov peak and pointing down, but the slope has softened over the last few sessions, consistent with deceleration in downside pressure.

6. Support and resistance map (near-term)

• Immediate support: 0.701–0.704 (current pivot); 0.695–0.696 (11/14 low region); 0.692 (11/6 intraday low); 0.661–0.672 (Nov 3–5 lower bound, plus lower daily Bollinger proximity).
• Overhead resistance: 0.715–0.721 (hourly congestion/top of micro-bases); 0.728–0.734 (descending channel cap and 1h supply shelf); 0.740–0.744 (11/5–11/6 highs); stronger band 0.77–0.83 (recent distribution zone).

7. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel: Well-defined since early Nov; price at/near the lower boundary increases bounce odds toward the midline/upper rail (~0.72–0.73) in the next session.
• Potential micro double-bottom: 0.6957 (11/14 23:00) and 0.7010 (current) could evolve into a higher low; confirmation requires a push/hold above 0.715 and ideally 0.721.
• No confirmed bullish reversal candle on daily yet; looking for a hammer/doji close today would strengthen the case.

8. Fibonacci context (recent swing)

• From the 11/1 local high (0.894) to the 11/4 low (0.661), subsequent rallies into 0.83–0.85 matched the 61.8–78.6% retrace cluster and failed, reinforcing that zone as overhead supply. For this micro leg from 11/10 high (~0.847) to 11/14 low (~0.694), the 38.2–50% retrace sits around 0.748–0.770; a first bounce often aims for the 23.6–38.2% area, i.e., ~0.72–0.74, aligning with our near-term resistance.

9. Ichimoku (heuristic)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; cloud bearish and ahead. This confirms broader downtrend, so any long is tactical. However, Tenkan/Kijun distance has stretched, which often precedes snapbacks to Kijun on shorter timeframes.
• Hourly: Below a thin, downward-sloping cloud; pullbacks into the cloud around 0.720–0.725 are probable rejection zones for first tests.

10. Quantitative tilt and scenarios (24h)

• Mean-reversion probability: Elevated given -12.7% distance to 20SMA and proximity to lower band and round-number support.
• Scenario probabilities (subjective, based on structure):
  • Relief bounce to 0.72–0.73: 55%
  • Range drift 0.695–0.715 without follow-through: 10%
  • Breakdown through 0.695 to 0.68–0.69: 25%
  • Tail risk probe into 0.66–0.67 (lower band/October node): 10%

11. Trade plan logic

• Rationale to buy: Price is sitting on stacked supports (0.70 figure, prior 0.695 pivot, channel base), with early intraday stabilization and mild bullish divergence on lower timeframes. Volatility is sufficient to lift toward 0.72–0.73 within 24h, and the reward-to-risk is favorable against a tight invalidation below 0.692 (discussed in analysis; stop not part of output fields).
• Entry method: Patience for a slight undercut/flush is typical at round numbers; a limit in the high 0.69s balances fill probability and risk reduction.
• Profit-taking: First resistance band 0.728–0.734 aligns with hourly supply and channel top; this is a pragmatic 24h target before stronger sellers.

12. Risk and invalidation cues

• Bear trigger: Hourly close < 0.695 and daily close near lows would negate the bounce setup and reopen 0.68 then 0.66.
• Dampeners: Lack of volume on the bounce or repeated rejections at 0.715 would warn the relief move may stall.
• Catalysts: Broader crypto beta swings can amplify; watch BTC/ETH direction. A risk-off tape could tip WLD through 0.695.

Conclusion

• Despite the prevailing downtrend, the confluence of support at 0.70, stretched distance from the 20SMA, proximity to the lower Bollinger band, and early intraday stabilization favor a tactical 24h long aiming for 0.72–0.73. The plan is to buy a small pullback near 0.698 and target the 0.728–0.734 band. If 0.695 breaks on an hourly basis, the bounce case weakens materially.