WLFI33251: Coiled Bull Flag Aiming for 0.170–0.173 on Break Above 0.1668

Note: This is market commentary and educational analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.

Summary of the tape

• Instrument: WLFI33251 (World Liberty Financial)
• Currency: $
• Current price: 0.16041
• Context: Deep selloff into mid-October (intraday low 0.0915 on Oct 10), basing in late Oct–early Nov, impulsive recovery from Nov 20 low (0.1314) to Nov 26 high (0.1734), followed by a three-day pullback to the 0.158–0.160 zone with lighter volume.

1. Price structure and trend

• Higher lows sequence since Nov 20: 0.1314 (Nov 20) → 0.14498 (Nov 21 close) → 0.152–0.154 (Nov 22–24) → 0.1586 (Nov 28 low). Structure is bullish.
• Resistance shelf: 0.1668–0.1680 (Nov 25–28 intraday), and overhead supply at 0.1734 (Nov 26 high). Above 0.1734 sits the Oct swing-resistance band near 0.1806.
• Support ladder: 0.1600/0.1585 (recent intraday lows), 0.1574 (38.2% Fib of the Nov advance), 0.1536–0.1524 (prior closes/Fib 50%), 0.149–0.150 (20DMA vicinity).

2. Moving averages (closing basis)

• 5DMA ≈ 0.163 (slightly above spot; short-term pullback still intact).
• 10DMA ≈ 0.1549; 20DMA ≈ 0.1494. Price > 10DMA and 20DMA, and the 10DMA > 20DMA. Short-term golden-cross behavior supports dips being bought.
• Slope: 10DMA and 20DMA both rising; 5DMA flattening. Net: constructive, short-term consolidation within an uptrend.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) ≈ 62.7: bullish but not overbought; room to grind higher.
• MACD (12,26,9): Likely positive and narrowing after the late-Nov thrust; histogram contraction typical of a flag. A turn up on a small push above ~0.166 would re-accelerate momentum.
• Stochastic: Mid-high range and curling; fits a buy-the-dip within trend scenario.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) estimated around 0.010–0.014 earlier; contracting to ~0.008–0.010 in the latest sessions. Volatility compression after the rally favors a directional move as energy rebuilds.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ≈ 0.149–0.150; upper ≈ 0.170–0.171; lower ≈ 0.128–0.129 (approx). Spot sits above the middle band and below the upper band, consistent with a bullish consolidation.
• Keltner Channels (20,2xATR): Upper channel likely clustering ~0.169–0.171; confluence with Bollinger upper reinforces resistance near 0.170.

5. Volume, flows, and breadth

• Volume expanded on the advance into Nov 26 (323M) and contracted on the pullback (169M → 162M). Bullish volume asymmetry: impulsive up, corrective down on lighter volume.
• OBV bias: Upward since Nov 20, flattening during the 3-day dip. No sign of distribution.
• MFI: Likely mid-to-upper range with no overbought extremes; pullback on lighter volume suggests ongoing accumulation.

6. Ichimoku, Donchian, and cloud context

• Price > Tenkan (≈0.1445) and > Kijun (≈0.1402). Bullish alignment.
• Cloud top (Senkou B) projected near ~0.173; price is between Senkou A (~0.142) and Senkou B (~0.173). Cloud acts as overhead friction near 0.173, matching the Nov 26 high.
• Donchian channel (20): Upper bound ≈ 0.1734; a break above confirms momentum continuation.

7. Fibonacci, pivots, and confluences

• Fib retrace of Nov 20 low (0.1314) to Nov 26 high (0.1734):
  • 38.2%: 0.1574
  • 50%: 0.1524
  • 61.8%: 0.1474 Price bounced above 38.2% (0.1574) and is holding 0.158–0.160—a textbook shallow retracement in an uptrend.
• Daily pivot levels (from Nov 29 H/L/C ≈ 0.16092/0.15850/0.16041):
  • PP ≈ 0.15994
  • R1 ≈ 0.16139, R2 ≈ 0.16237
  • S1 ≈ 0.15896, S2 ≈ 0.15752 (near 38.2% Fib). Confluence adds credibility to 0.157–0.159 as buy zone.

8. Pattern recognition

• Ascending triangle: Rising swing lows against a flat-ish 0.1668–0.1680 lid. Measured move ≈ 0.015 → breakout objective ≈ 0.183. Near term, first target is the recent high cluster 0.170–0.173 before 0.180–0.183.
• Bull flag / tight channel since Nov 27: Pullback on lighter volume suggests continuation probability > mean reversion.

9. 24-hour outlook and scenarios (probabilistic)

• Base case (≈55–60%): Gradual bid from 0.159–0.160 toward 0.163–0.166. If 0.1668 clears, extension to ~0.169–0.171 probable.
• Bull case (≈25–30%): Momentum ignition above 0.1668/0.1680; test 0.170–0.173. Stretch goal 0.176–0.180 if liquidity is thin.
• Bear case (≈15–20%): Liquidity sweep to S2/Fib at 0.157–0.158; deeper dip to 0.153–0.154 (50% Fib/10DMA) only if sellers press. Trend remains constructive unless 0.152 breaks on volume.
• Expected 1-day range (ATR-guided): Roughly 0.152–0.168, skewed upward given trend/momentum back-drop.

10. Cross-technique consensus

• Trend tools (MAs, structure, Ichimoku): Bullish.
• Momentum tools (RSI/MACD/Stoch): Positive-to-neutral, poised to reaccelerate on small strength.
• Volatility tools (ATR/Bands/Keltner): Compressed; upper channel confluence near 0.170–0.171 is the first magnet post-break.
• Pattern tools (ascending triangle, flag): Point to 0.170–0.173 near term; 0.180–0.183 on a decisive breakout.
• Volume/Flow tools (OBV/MFI): Accumulation bias; pullback looks corrective.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within an emerging uptrend.
• Optimal entry (limit): 0.1596 (in the PP/S1 pocket just above the 0.1585–0.1590 intraday shelf). Alternative momentum entry: 0.1669 stop-limit on breakout.
• Profit target (24h take-profit): 0.1705 (just in front of Bollinger/Keltner confluence and below 0.173 cloud cap). Room to trail if breakout is strong.
• Protective stop (not requested, but prudent): 0.1569 (just below S2/Fib 38.2%). Risk ≈ 1.7% vs reward ≈ 6.8% from 0.1596 → R:R ≈ 4:1.
• Invalidation: Consecutive closes below 0.157 or a heavy-volume break of 0.153–0.154 would negate the immediate bullish setup.

Bottom line

• Multiple independent tools agree: Uptrend intact, pullback shallow, support respected at the 38.2% retrace, and momentum ready to re-engage on a small push. Expect a drift higher toward 0.166–0.170 over the next 24h with a reasonable chance to probe 0.170–0.173 if 0.1668 gives way.