WLFI: Buying the Dip into Pivot Support for a Push Toward 0.158

Snapshot and context

• Symbol: WLFI33251 (World Liberty Financial). Currency: $. Current price: 0.14940277.
• Intraday high/low (Oct 27): 0.15523 / 0.14282 with a close near 0.14940 after a midday breakout and late pullback.
• Larger context: From early September’s sharp drawdown (0.46 → ~0.20) to an October capitulation low on Oct 10 (~0.125), followed by a basing phase and a constructive rebound into the mid 0.14s–0.15s.

Market structure and trend

• Higher lows since the Oct 10 washout: 0.125 (Oct 10) → 0.126 (Oct 21) → 0.1377 (Oct 25) → 0.1498 (Oct 26). This marks a short-term uptrend within a still-intact longer-term downtrend.
• Key levels:
  • Resistance shelf: 0.1520–0.1555 (intraday supply cluster; aligns with Fib and pivot R1).
  • Intermediate resistance: 0.1600 (psychological), 0.1616 (pivot R2 projection).
  • Supports: 0.1500 (round), 0.1470–0.1485 (today’s demand zone and multiple hour lows), 0.1430–0.1450 (S1/pivot band), 0.1367 (S2 projection), 0.132–0.138 (recent consolidation block).
• Tape today: Strong impulse 16:00–18:00 to 0.155, then orderly pullback to ~0.149–0.150; buyers defended above 0.147–0.148 repeatedly.

Moving averages (daily)

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.139 (rising). Price > 20D SMA → bullish short-term bias.
• 50D SMA (approx) ≈ 0.20. Price < 50D SMA → intermediate trend still down; expect overhead supply on strength.
• EMAs: 8D EMA has likely crossed above 21D EMA around Oct 23–24 → positive momentum crossover supporting dips being bought.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily) estimate: mid-to-high 50s, possibly ~58–60 after today’s pop, well off oversold, below overbought → room to extend toward low 60s.
• MACD (daily): Histogram rising; signal line crossing zero or approaching it → improving momentum, consistent with a nascent up leg.
• Stochastic (daily): Likely mid-to-high range but not at an extreme; suggests pullbacks can reset without breaking trend.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (daily) rough: ~0.009–0.012. Current move from 0.143 to 0.155 (~0.012) tapped a 1x ATR day; follow-through day often sees 0.4–0.7x ATR pullback then a retest higher. That favors a dip toward 0.147–0.149 followed by another push toward 0.155–0.158.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Basis ~0.139. Upper band estimated ~0.157, lower ~0.121. Price near upper band but not outside → bullish but not blow-off; room to tag upper band on the next push (0.156–0.158 zone).

Volume and flow

• Volume expanded on the advance (notably 16:00–18:00) and eased on the pullback → bullish volume signature (up-volume > down-volume).
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend since Oct 23; accumulation days outpacing distribution.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Price closed slightly below/near VWAP post-spike, indicating late-session digestion rather than aggressive distribution. A reclaim of VWAP near ~0.1498–0.1505 should invite momentum buyers.

Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan ≈ 0.139; Kijun ≈ 0.189. Price > Tenkan but < Kijun → positive short-term impulse within a broader resistance regime. A typical pathway is grind higher until meeting thicker resistance well above current price.

Fibonacci mapping

• Using Oct 1 swing high 0.2057 to Oct 10 low 0.1251:
  • 38.2%: ~0.1559 → today’s intraday high (0.1552) essentially tagged this level; strong confluence resistance.
  • 50%: ~0.1654 (next upside checkpoint if 0.156 breaks).
  • 61.8%: ~0.1750 (stretch, unlikely in 24h without a catalyst).

Pivots (classical, based on Oct 27 H/L/C ≈ 0.15523/0.14282/0.14940)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.14915.
• R1 ≈ 0.15548, R2 ≈ 0.16156.
• S1 ≈ 0.14307, S2 ≈ 0.13674.
• Price closed near P; typical pattern next day is a test of P, then either expansion to R1 (if bullish) or S1 (if bearish). Given the up-volume and recent higher lows, bias favors R1 retest ahead of S1.

Candle and pattern reads

• Oct 27 intraday produced a bullish expansion candle followed by a modest upper wick pullback into the pivot → healthy digestion. No clear bearish reversal (e.g., no engulfing on the day), just profit-taking into resistance.
• Structure resembles a breakout-and-retest of the 0.147–0.148 supply flip zone, now converted to demand.

Liquidity and order book implications (inferred)

• Liquidity likely pools above 0.151–0.152 (stop-and-chase orders) and below 0.147 (late longs’ stops). Smart money often sweeps one side then runs the other; base case is a shallow dip into 0.147s to refuel, then a push through 0.151–0.152 toward 0.155–0.158.

Strategy synthesis and 24h path

• Confluences for upside:
  • Price > rising 20D SMA and > Tenkan; recent EMA8>EMA21 cross.
  • OBV/volume supports accumulation; pullbacks on lighter volume.
  • Pivot framework: price at P with R1 near 0.1555 matching Fib 38.2%.
  • Bollinger upper band target ~0.157.
• Headwinds:
  • Strong resistance confluence 0.152–0.156; first test today rejected.
  • Intermediate trend (50D) still down; sellers may re-emerge on strength.

Base-case 24h forecast (probabilistic)

• 55%: Early dip to 0.147–0.148, VWAP reclaim, drive to 0.155–0.158; close near 0.156.
• 30%: Range-bound 0.147–0.151 consolidation; another attempt higher late session.
• 15%: Deeper pullback: lose 0.147, probe 0.144–0.145 (S1), then bounce.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within 0.147–0.148 to play the retest of R1/Fib resistance.
• Entry: 0.1482 limit (inside the intraday demand cluster and just below the pivot P).
• Target (24h): 0.1588 (below 0.160 psych and near upper band/R2 trajectory; front-runs likely seller reloads).
• Invalidation (risk management, not part of order fields): A decisive hourly close below 0.144–0.145 (S1 band) would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and favor a wait-and-see or reversal.

Conclusion

• Short-term momentum has turned constructive with supportive breadth and volume. Despite nearby resistance, the path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is a measured push back toward 0.155–0.158 after a shallow dip. Plan: Buy the dip near 0.1482 and target 0.1588 within the next session.