Tradzar
Onyxcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
XCN’s Post-Spike Fade: Liquidity Sweep Above $0.00726 Signals a 24h Mean-Reversion Pullback
Market context (data window)
- Symbol: XCN (Onyxcoin)
- Current price: $0.007019
- Data used: Daily candles from 2025-10-26 → 2026-01-23, plus intraday hourly candles for 2026-01-22 22:00 → 2026-01-23 21:58.
The market experienced a major impulsive rally Jan 4–7 (peak day high ~$0.01286 on Jan 6) followed by a multi-day distribution / downtrend into Jan 20 (daily low region ~$0.00646), then a bounce Jan 21 and a tight consolidation around $0.0070 on Jan 22–23.
1) Trend & structure (Dow / swing analysis)
Higher timeframe (daily)
- Impulse: Jan 4 close ~0.00543 → Jan 7 close ~0.01023 (strong markup).
- Correction: Jan 8–20 produced lower highs and lower lows, culminating near 0.00646.
- Bounce / stabilization: Jan 21 closed 0.007559 (strong green day), followed by inside/neutral behavior Jan 22 close 0.007043, and Jan 23 close around 0.007019.
Interpretation: After a steep selloff from the blow-off peak, price is now in a base-building phase. The trend is still bearish-to-neutral on daily structure (because highs are still far below the Jan peak), but near-term downside momentum has clearly weakened.
Lower timeframe (hourly)
- Hourly sequence shows a range most of the day near 0.00690–0.00705, then a sharp upside expansion at 16:00 with a spike to 0.0072646, immediately followed by mean reversion into the close around 0.00701.
Interpretation: The spike looks like a liquidity sweep / stop-run above range highs, not a clean trend reversal yet. Price returning to ~0.0070 suggests supply above ~0.00720–0.00726.
2) Support / resistance mapping (horizontal + event levels)
Key supports
- S1 (immediate): $0.00695–0.00690 (hourly lows repeatedly defended).
- S2 (major): ~$0.00646–0.00650 (Jan 20 low + prior breakdown area). This is the level bulls must keep above to avoid a deeper leg down.
Key resistances
- R1: $0.00715–0.00720 (intraday reaction zone; post-spike area).
- R2: ~$0.00755–0.00756 (Jan 21 close / daily swing area).
- R3: ~$0.00800 (psychological + Jan 10 close region).
Implication: At $0.00702, price is closer to support than to meaningful resistance; R1 overhead is tight, so upside may be capped in the next 24h unless a catalyst/volume expansion appears.
3) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style reasoning)
- Daily candles around Jan 22–23 show compressed ranges compared to the earlier high-volatility phase (Jan 5–7).
- Hourly ranges are mostly small except the 16:00 impulse.
Implication: Volatility compression after a decline often precedes expansion. The question is direction:
- The failed continuation after the 16:00 spike argues for near-term mean reversion.
- But the broader “post-selloff base” argues downside may be limited unless $0.00690 breaks.
Net: likely range expansion that first tests liquidity on one side then returns to mean.
4) Candlestick / price action signals
Daily
- Jan 21: strong bullish recovery candle (from ~0.00646 low area to 0.00756 close) = demand response.
- Jan 22–23: stalling around 0.0070 = market undecided; bulls did not follow through immediately.
Hourly
- The 16:00 candle is a breakout attempt (0.00698 → 0.0072646 close) on large reported volume.
- Subsequent hours did not build higher highs and drifted back to ~0.0070.
Interpretation: This is classic behavior of a bull trap / stop-hunt near the top of a micro-range.
5) Moving averages (conceptual, from visible regime)
Exact MA values aren’t provided, but the price path implies:
- After the Jan 5–7 surge, the subsequent decline to Jan 20 means shorter MAs (5–10d) likely rolled over and price traded below them for a period.
- The Jan 21 bounce likely brought price back toward short MAs, but the inability to push beyond ~0.00755 suggests price is still below/near declining mid MAs (20d).
MA takeaway: Trend bias is still slightly bearish until price reclaims and holds above the nearby swing resistance (0.00755+) with follow-through.
6) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference from swings)
- The selloff from ~0.010+ down to ~0.00646 likely pushed daily momentum into oversold.
- The rebound to 0.00756 is consistent with a momentum reset (RSI rising from low levels).
- The last two daily closes flat-to-down indicates momentum is fading again in the short term.
Momentum takeaway (next 24h): more consistent with chop to slightly down unless price can reclaim 0.00715–0.00720 and hold.
7) Volume / participation
- Major participation occurred during Jan 5–7 (blow-off) and Jan 21 (bounce day).
- Jan 23 hourly volume is concentrated in the 16:00 and 17:00 candles (spike, then fade).
Volume takeaway: The most recent high activity occurred at higher prices (near 0.00726), and price failed to sustain—often a sign of distribution into strength.
8) Pattern recognition (range, traps, and mean reversion)
Micro pattern (hourly)
- Range: ~0.00690–0.00705 most of the session.
- Liquidity sweep: spike to 0.00726.
- Reversion: close back near 0.00701.
This often leads to a retest of the lower range boundary (0.00690–0.00695) within the next session.
Macro pattern (daily)
- Post-impulse decline + stabilization suggests a developing base. Bases often show:
- capitulation (Jan 20)
- sharp bounce (Jan 21)
- retest/sideways (Jan 22–23)
That supports limited downside, but not necessarily immediate upside.
9) 24-hour forecast (probabilistic)
Given the conflicting forces (base building vs. overhead supply), the highest-likelihood path for the next 24h:
- Primary scenario (55–60%): Sideways-to-down mean reversion toward $0.00690–$0.00695, then bounce back toward ~$0.00705–$0.00710.
- Bullish alternative (25–30%): reclaim $0.00715–$0.00720, then attempt $0.00755 (but needs sustained volume—recent attempt failed).
- Bearish alternative (10–15%): breakdown below $0.00690, opening room to $0.00665–$0.00650.
Net directional call for the next 24h: slightly bearish / fade-the-rally bias.
10) Trade plan logic (why short makes sense here)
- Price is mid-range after a failed breakout spike, a common setup for shorting a retest of resistance.
- Upside is capped by nearby resistance (0.00715–0.00720) while downside has room back to 0.00690 first, and possibly 0.00670 if the range breaks.
- The market is still beneath key post-bounce resistance (0.00755), so trend-following longs are premature.
Conclusion
Prediction (24h): XCN likely drifts down to retest $0.00690–$0.00695, with rebounds likely sold below $0.00720.
Action: Prefer a Short (Sell), but only on a bounce into resistance to avoid shorting support.