Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Stellar (XLM) as of August 6, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

• Macro Trend (Last 3 Months): From May to early July, XLM traded in a broad range between ~$0.22 and ~$0.28, with a pronounced multi-week downtrend from mid-May through late June. Major capitulation and reversal occurred in early July. From July 6th onward, prices entered an explosive bullish trend, culminating in a sharp rally towards a $0.51 high in mid-July.
• Mid-Term (Past 3 Weeks): After peaking near $0.51 on July 14, a volatile correction ensued. Multiple failed attempts at $0.48–0.50 were followed by significant selling pressure. Around July 23–31, price retraced sharply from $0.47 to $0.40 area, finding support at $0.38 and then moving sideways in a tightening range.
• Short-Term (Daily & Hourly): Through early August, price has remained in a contracting triangle/flag between $0.38 and $0.42, establishing $0.41 as resistance and $0.39 as major support. Last few hourly candles show low volatility but are forming higher lows.

2. Candlestick Patterns

• Post-July Blow Off and Correction: The spike to $0.51 (July 14) was on very high volume – classic sign of capitulation/top. Subsequent candles illustrate sharp wicks on both sides, consistent with indecision and profit-taking phases.
• Current Structure: On hourly and 4-hour candles, recent sessions show increased lower wicks near the $0.39 zone, signifying absorption of selling pressure. 4-hourly ranges are narrowing, indicative of an imminent breakout (compression after expansion pattern in play).

3. Volume Profile

• Daily Volume Spikes: Notable surges on July 9–14 and July 21–23 correspond to major trend reversal and post-parabolic phase. Since then, volume receded considerably, highlighting the market's wait-and-see attitude. Current hourly volume is low, typical before a significant move.
• Order Flow: Volume supports a constructive consolidation base after the aggressive shakeout from $0.51 to $0.38.

4. Moving Averages

• 20 EMA (Daily): Currently estimated near $0.41, price is below this level, indicating minor short-term resistance.
• 50 SMA (Daily): Sits around $0.40. Price is fluctuating at/around this level — this is a decisive battleground.
• 200 SMA (Daily): Likely in the $0.33–0.35 range, adding major longer-term support well below the current price, showing the mid-term trend remains bullish.

5. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI: Estimated in the 45–52 area, neutral-to-bullish after prior overbought >75 on July 14. Momentum has lost some strength but has not collapsed into oversold territory. This indicates healthy consolidation rather than bearish reversal.
• Hourly RSI: Oscillating between 48–54 last 12 sessions, with very little divergence — consistent with consolidation, setting up for a momentum breakout.

6. MACD

• Daily MACD: Lines converging, on the verge of a bullish crossover after the deep pullback. Histogram shows reducing bearish momentum, supportive of a potential move higher if a catalyst arrives.
• 4h MACD: Minor bullish divergence forming as price holds higher lows while oscillator turns upward. Good probability for mean-reversion upward.

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• Major Swing High (0.51) to Recent Low (0.38):
  • 23.6%: ~$0.41
  • 38.2%: ~$0.43
  • 61.8%: ~$0.46
• Price has been rejected at the 23.6% level ($0.41) but is displaying multiple tests. A sustained break above $0.41 would unlock space to the $0.43–$0.45 area.

8. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Bull Flag/Ascending Triangle Formation: Past 2 weeks, XLM has established a series of higher daily lows ($0.37→$0.39) and stable resistance around $0.41–$0.42, indicative of a coiling flag or shallow ascending triangle. Typical resolution of this structure is to the upside, especially after a strong prior uptrend.
• Support and Resistance Levels:
  • Major Support: $0.385, $0.392, $0.375
  • Immediate Resistance: $0.405, $0.412, $0.432
  • Strong Resistance: $0.446, $0.465
• If bulls can clear the $0.41–$0.42 band, momentum buyers could quickly retest $0.43–$0.45.

9. Ichimoku Cloud (Estimated)

• Base Line (Kijun-sen): Near $0.395, price is sitting close to equilibrium.
• Conversion Line (Tenkan-sen): Slightly above current price, supports upward bias.
• Cloud (Kumo): Thin and flat in this region; price above the cloud on lower timeframes, supporting a bullish continuation scenario.

10. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Bands tightened to $0.384–$0.412 range. Tight bands imply an imminent volatility expansion. Price bouncing between lower and mid-band — as sellers get exhausted, potential for upside expansion increases.

11. Elliott Wave Count

• Arguably, XLM completed a 5-wave impulse run from $0.22 to $0.51, followed by an ABC correction (A = $0.51→$0.38, B = $0.44, C = $0.396). Current wave resembles a 2nd corrective wave in a larger uptrend structure; if so, XLM is poised for a fresh impulsive advance.

12. Market Sentiment & Volatility

• ATR and Volatility: Short-term ATR has contracted, consistent with the “calm before the storm” pattern.
• Order Book and Sentiment: Likely mostly balanced; no evidence of cascade liquidations, meaning both sides have yet to fully commit.

13. Probability Weighted Scenarios

• Break Above $0.41: If hourly closes above $0.41, expect rapid upside to $0.43 and then $0.45.
• Break Below $0.385: Downside exposure to $0.375, possibly deeper to $0.362.
• Range Holding: Most likely, given all consolidation evidence, would see an attempt higher within next 24hrs.

14. Trade Plan Using Multi-Strategy Confluence

• Long (Buy) Trade favored, given bullish flag, higher lows, band contraction, and upcoming MACD/RSI momentum cross.
• Stop Loss below $0.385 (last swing low; safety buffer)
• Target at $0.432 (next strong resistance/Fibonacci cluster)
• Entry ideally on slight retrace into $0.393–$0.395 to maximize reward/risk; avoid chasing if strong hourly candle closes above $0.405 (requires adjustment).

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Summary/Conclusion

The dominant mid-term trend for XLM remains bullish, with the current price action representing a healthy consolidation after an explosive move in July. Multiple converging indicators — price actively defending higher lows, RSI stabilization, reducing bearish momentum on MACD, compressed Bollinger Bands, and key support levels holding — all suggest an imminent upside move. An optimal setup is a Buy/Long entry near $0.394 with a target to close near $0.432. Bear in mind risk management, as a break below $0.385 would invalidate the structure and indicate another leg down.

Probability of upside breakout in next 24 hours: 70–75%.

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