Monero coils above support: 24h bounce setup toward 418–421

Multi-timeframe market read (daily and hourly)

• Structure and trend

  • The medium-term trend turned decisively bullish from late October, with price advancing from the 320s to a spike high near 470 on Nov 9. Since then, XMR has been digesting gains in a broad range roughly 386 to 435, establishing a series of higher lows after the post-spike washout. Current price is 396.81.
  • Last 7 daily closes: 386.83, 369.34, 387.27, 387.01, 391.53, 419.65, 396.81. The sequence shows higher lows from 369 to 387 to ~392, and a recent push to 419 before a pullback. This is consistent with a constructive consolidation after a strong impulse.
  • Hourly on Nov 16: early strength to 434-435, then a fast drop to 400, a reactive bounce to 414, and a second drive into the 387-392 demand zone before stabilizing around 396-397. Demand defended 386-391 multiple times. The pattern resembles a range retest of support within an uptrend.

• Support and resistance map

  • Key support zones: 386-391 (defended repeatedly today), 371-373 (Nov 13-14 region), 347-350 (early Nov base), 333-336 (late Oct congestion).
  • Near-term resistances: 402-405 (Fib 38.2 cluster and hourly supply), 415-421 (50 percent retrace level and Nov 15 close zone), 432-435 (range highs and upper supply), 447-450, then 470 spike high.

Moving averages, trend confirmation, and mean reversion

• Daily 20-SMA is approximately 365 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price is above the 20-SMA, showing upside bias. After touching the upper band area recently, price reverted toward the mean but remains above it, a constructive posture.
• 50-SMA is estimated in the 320-330 area; 200-SMA likely lower still. Alignment 20 > 50 > 200 indicates the dominant trend remains up.
• On the hourly, price has rotated from the session high back toward the session VWAP area and stabilized just above the 386-391 demand, suggesting dip-buyers are active.

Momentum oscillators and divergences

• Daily RSI(14) estimated around 55-60. This is above the midline, consistent with a bullish regime but not overbought. The Nov 9 spike likely pushed RSI over 70, then it cooled. Present value supports a buy-the-dip mindset rather than chasing strength.
• Hourly RSI cooled into the mid-40s to around 50 during the afternoon base and is curling up from oversold intraday conditions near the 387-391 defense. No glaring bearish divergence at the current local lows; momentum loss on the drop is consistent with a corrective move rather than trend change.
• MACD daily remains above zero after the October-November upthrust. Histogram has contracted since the 470 spike, reflecting consolidation; still positive on balance. Hourly MACD shows a potential bullish cross from sub-zero as price stabilized above 390, a typical precursor to a bounce toward the intraday mean.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily has expanded with the recent spike and subsequent wide ranges; estimated in the 35-45 range. The last two sessions show intraday ranges around 45-47 dollars, so a 24-hour move of 20-40 dollars is statistically common.
• Bollinger Bands daily with 20-SMA near 365 imply upper band near 425 and lower near 305-315 given elevated sigma. Price reversed lower after tapping near the upper band on Nov 15-16 and has mean-reverted to the upper-middle zone. Trading back toward the midline pivot 406-410 is probable in the next session, with 425 as the next volatility cap.
• Keltner Channels: Price sits near the middle of the channel on the daily after an outer-channel tag. Reversion toward the EMA20 is consistent with a bounce toward 406-410 first, then potentially 418-425 if momentum firms.

Volume and flow

• Massive participation on Nov 9 spike; volumes remained elevated in the following sessions. The last three days show high activity into resistance 430-435 and again defending 386-391. Net effect: distribution at 435s but accumulation near 390s. On Balance Volume remains in an uptrend since late October; dips have seen support rather than sustained distribution, favoring upside resolution of the range in time.
• Volume profile over the last 3 weeks would likely show a high-volume node around 405-415 and a secondary node 388-395. Current price is sitting on the lower node, with a magnet above near 406-415.

Fibonacci analysis and confluence

• Swing low 361 (Nov 11) to swing high 470 (Nov 9) produces retracement levels at roughly 386.7 (23.6 percent), 402.6 (38.2 percent), 415.5 (50 percent), 428.4 (61.8 percent). Current 396.8 is just below 402.6 and above 386.7, exactly within the golden-pocket-to-lower-band support zone. Confluence:
  • 386-391 structural demand aligns with 23.6 percent retracement at 386.7.
  • 402-405 aligns with 38.2 percent retracement and an hourly supply shelf.
  • 415-421 aligns with 50 percent retracement and yesterday’s closing region.
  • Strong confluence suggests a bounce path 392-395 to 406, then 415-421 if momentum improves.

Ichimoku Cloud read (daily)

• Price is above the Cloud; Tenkan is likely in the upper 390s to around 400, and Kijun estimated mid- to upper-360s. Price is retesting the Tenkan area. In bullish regimes, Tenkan retests often resolve higher toward prior highs. Chikou span would be above price from 26 periods back, confirming bullish conditions.

VWAP diagnostics

• Today’s session VWAP likely around 405-407 given the early trade at 424-435 and subsequent selloff. Price closed below the day VWAP, signaling intraday weakness; however, anchored VWAP from the Nov 11 reaction low likely sits near 400-403, and price is oscillating just below that anchor. A reclaim of 402-405 would signal the shift back to buyer control for the session and set up a run to 415-421.

Donchian and breakout context

• 20-day Donchian upper is the 470 spike, lower near the early November 328-331 area. Midline is near 399. Current price 396-397 is effectively at the Donchian midline. From this equilibrium, the next day often mean-reverts to the daily pivot first; broader trend suggests an eventual retest of upper third of the range (418-435) before a new directional impulse.

Classical patterns and candles

• The daily structure since the spike is developing into an ascending triangle or at minimum a rising base with a horizontal supply shelf between 432 and 435. Higher lows at 369, 378, and now 387-391 support this. Such structures have a bullish bias when the macro trend is up.
• Today’s intraday drops into 387-392 were met with demand; the hourly closes show stabilization and small-bodied candles near 396-397 after a large range move, often preceding a retracement toward the session pivot the following day.

Pivot levels for the next session (based on today’s H 435.23, L 387.50, C 396.81)

• Pivot P ≈ 406.43
• R1 ≈ 425.36
• S1 ≈ 377.86
• R2 ≈ 453.93
• S2 ≈ 358.93 Historical tendency favors price testing the daily pivot. A move to P at ~406.4 is statistically likely; if reclaimed, 415-421 becomes the next magnet, with stretch potential to R1 near 425.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Post-spike corrective ABC may have completed into the 369-391 region, followed by a nascent impulse that printed a new swing high at 435 versus the corrective structure. The latest pullback to 387-392 can be viewed as a wave 2 or wave 4 within a smaller degree, implying wave 3 or 5 potential toward 418-425 next if 386-391 continues to hold.

Risk framework and scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case 55-65 percent probability: Buy-the-dip bounce. Hold above 386-391 leads to reclaim of 402-405, test of pivot 406-407, then push into 415-421. Stretch target 425 if momentum firms and volume returns.
• Bear case 30-40 percent: Failure to hold 386-391 triggers a liquidity sweep toward 381, potentially extending to 377-378 (S1 vicinity). In that scenario, bulls likely attempt to reclaim 386-391 later in the session.
• Low probability 10-15 percent: Immediate squeeze higher from current price without a dip, reclaiming 405 quickly and running to 425-432 in one leg. Given macro uptrend alignment, strong demand at 386-391, and confluence at 402-405 as a reclaim trigger, the path of least resistance is a bounce over the next 24 hours toward 415-421, with risk defined just below 386.

Trade thesis and execution

• Bias: Buy the dip into the 392-395 zone, where hourly structure shows stabilization and where the demand band begins. Use the 386-391 shelf as the fail zone. First objective is a mean reversion to 406-407; second objective 415-421 where supply reappears. Stretch objective 425 near R1 if momentum expands.
• Why not short: Shorting into a higher-low base above the daily 20-SMA within an established uptrend carries asymmetric risk if the pivot is reclaimed. The nearby support 386-391 has been stubbornly defended; upside excursions can be sharp in this regime.

Price prediction for next 24 hours

• Expected range: 388 to 420, with tails possible to 425 on upside and 381 on downside.
• Central path: small dip toward 392-394 early, then a grind higher to 406-408, followed by a push into 415-421. Probability-weighted mean close in the 408-416 band.

Bottom line

• The higher-timeframe uptrend is intact; the latest pullback has landed on a well-bid demand zone aligned with Fibonacci 23.6 retracement and prior structural support. Momentum is cooling but constructive, volatility is elevated but compressing intraday, and pivots and Fib confluence suggest a bounce is the higher-probability outcome in the next 24 hours. The optimal trade is a tactical long entered on a slight dip with targets into 415-421, where supply thickens.