XRP at the 38.2% Line: Fade the Bounce into 2.35–2.36 for a Push Toward 2.21

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mild bounce toward 2.33–2.36 likely, then continuation lower; net directional expectation: bearish continuation toward 2.22–2.26.
• Trade idea: Fade the relief rally (sell the pop). Confluence resistance sits at 2.34–2.36 (intraday supply, 38.2% retracement from today’s downswing, and near daily pivots). Target prior demand shelf just above 2.21.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): Since the Oct 10 volatility shock, structure has stayed bearish with persistent lower highs and lower lows. • Highs: 2.65 (Oct 26) → 2.63 (Oct 27) → 2.61 (Oct 28) → 2.55 (Oct 29) → 2.51 (Oct 31) → 2.53 (Nov 2/10 spike) → 2.45–2.47 (Nov 12–13 intraday) – sequence remains lower. • Lows: 2.31 (Nov 3 close), 2.21 (Nov 4), 2.19 (Nov 6), 2.29 (Nov 13 now flirting). Each rally has been sold.
• Intraday (hourly Nov 13): London/early US session pushed to 2.51–2.52, then a steady bleed into the US afternoon/evening down to 2.29. Rallies of 0.02–0.03 have been sold quickly. Closing hours show tepid bid, consistent with distribution.
• Market regime: Bearish trend with intermittent mean-reversion bounces; volatility moderate-to-elevated relative to pre-Oct 10.

2. Moving averages and trend metrics

• 20-day simple MA ≈ 2.433 (computed from last 20 closes). Spot 2.295 is below the 20-DMA → short-term trend down.
• 50-day MA (approx) sits far above (~2.9), underscoring broader downtrend.
• 8/21 EMA posture (approx): 8-EMA ~2.34–2.36; 21-EMA ~2.46–2.48. Price < 8-EMA < 21-EMA → bearish alignment.
• Slope: All short and intermediate MAs are flat-to-down; no sign of a bullish inflection yet.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 41 (derived from last 14 closes). Below the midline, not oversold → room lower before extremes; bounces likely to be sold.
• Hourly RSI: Intraday prints fell into the mid-30s on the late-session selloff, then modestly bounced. This favors a small relief rally early next session before sellers reassert.
• MACD (daily): Fast below signal and rolling over toward zero; histogram negative and expanding slightly → momentum bearish.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Hovering sub-50 and failing to embed over 80 on bounces → weak thrust.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx) ~0.17–0.21. Moves of 6–9% in 24h are plausible.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Center ~2.433, lower band estimated ~2.13–2.18. Price is below mid-band and descending; room exists to tag 2.22–2.18 without band breach.
• Keltner Channels: Price below midline; BB likely outside KC during heavy drops, but currently not in a “squeeze.” Vol expansion resumed intraday today.

5. Support and resistance (confluence map)

• Immediate support: 2.29–2.30 (tapped), 2.266 (Nov 3 low), 2.21 (Nov 4 close/low area), 2.186 (Nov 6 low), 2.08 (major shock low on Nov 4 intraday).
• Near-term resistance: 2.33–2.36 (today’s intraday supply and fib confluence), 2.37–2.40 (daily pivot band and 50% retrace of the Oct 26 → Nov 4 leg), 2.45–2.47 (61.8% retrace of larger downswing + 20-DMA vicinity), 2.50–2.52 (clear supply shelf from multiple days).
• Interpretation: Best risk-reward is to sell 2.34–2.36 into layered resistance, targeting the 2.22–2.26 demand pocket.

6. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing A: Oct 26 high 2.6587 → Nov 4 low 2.0762 (range 0.5825). • 38.2% from low: 2.2988 (current price hovering here) → losing this turns the 38.2% into resistance. • 50%: 2.3674 (recent rejection zone Nov 9–11). • 61.8%: 2.4362 (close to 20-DMA; strong overhead lid).
• Intraday swing (Nov 13): 2.516 high → 2.285 low; 38.2% retrace ≈ 2.372, 50% ≈ 2.401, 61.8% ≈ 2.430. Any bounce toward 2.37–2.40 should encounter stacked sellers.

7. Price action and candles

• Daily prints since Nov 10: Bearish engulf after the 2.526 pop; two-day follow-through lower (Nov 11–12), and today extending into fresh local lows. No reversal candle (no hammer with strong close) yet.
• Hourly today: Series of lower highs from 2.52 → 2.50 → 2.49 → 2.43 → 2.35 → 2.30. Weak closing tone.

8. Volume, participation, and A/D

• Oct 10 shock had capitulatory volume; since then, distributions on up days and heavier activity on down legs persist.
• Today’s selloff hours (16:00–21:00 UTC) printed elevated turnover, signaling supply dominance into the close.
• OBV (qualitative) drifting down; no accumulation footprint yet.

9. Pivots and VWAP context

• Classic pivots using Nov 12 H/L/C (2.4472/2.3203/2.3869): • Pivot P ≈ 2.3848; R1 ≈ 2.4493; S1 ≈ 2.3224; R2 ≈ 2.5117; S2 ≈ 2.2579; S3 ≈ 2.1734. • Current ~2.295 sits between S1 and S2; a test of S2 (2.258) is probable; a break opens S3 (2.17s).
• Intraday VWAP (today) likely above price through the afternoon; price stayed sub-VWAP → persistent sell pressure.

10. Ichimoku

• Price below conversion and base lines, and below cloud; cloud ahead likely flat-to-down with a bearish tilt. No bullish TK cross.

11. Market profile / liquidity

• Visible liquidity pools: resting bids around 2.27 and 2.21 (prior swing lows), resting offers clustered 2.34–2.36 and heavier near 2.50–2.52.
• A run to 2.33–2.36 to fill offers before the next leg lower is typical in weak markets.

12. Probability-weighted path (next 24h)

• Scenario A (60%): Early bounce to 2.33–2.36, rejection, slide to 2.24–2.26; potential extension to 2.21 if momentum builds.
• Scenario B (25%): Direct drift lower from current 2.29 toward 2.26–2.24 without a meaningful bounce; minor end-of-day stabilization.
• Scenario C (15%): Stronger squeeze through 2.37–2.40 toward 2.43 (61.8% intraday retrace). This would require improving breadth and a shift in tape—currently not evident.

13. Risk management and invalidation (informative)

• Invalidation for the short thesis sits above 2.41–2.43 (61.8% intraday retrace + underside of 20-DMA zone). Sustained acceptance above 2.43 would target 2.45–2.47 and potentially 2.50–2.52.
• Given ATR, a 0.06–0.09 buffer above entry is typical for risk control; however, the plan focuses on optimal entry and target for the 24h horizon.

Conclusion and trade plan

• The dominant trend is down, momentum is negative, and rallies are being sold. Confluence suggests fading a relief pop into 2.34–2.36 with a target at the 2.21s demand shelf.
• Decision: Sell on a bounce.
• Open (limit) near 2.345 for better R:R; target 2.215 within the 24h window, aligning with S2/S3 progression and prior demand.