Sell the Bounce: XRP Faces Heavy 2.20–2.22 Resistance, Eyeing 2.11 in Next 24 Hours

Timeframe: Daily plus intraday (hourly) up to 2025-11-28 22:05 UTC Instrument: XRP/USD Current price: 2.1828

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-sideways. Expect a relief bounce into resistance followed by another leg down toward 2.16 → 2.11 if sellers hold the 2.21–2.23 supply.
• Optimal approach: Sell a bounce into the 2.20–2.22 confluence area (broken intraday support, 38.2–50% intraday retrace, hourly Kijun/Tenkan zone), targeting a move toward 2.11 (front-running deeper supports 2.10/2.05).

1. Trend and market structure

• Higher-timeframe (Daily): The broader structure since early October remains lower highs/lower lows. After the Oct 10 crash (intraday wash to ~1.53, settle ~2.36), price carved out a descending sequence through mid-Nov with a local capitulation low on Nov 21 (~1.835). A bounce into Nov 24–27 stalled beneath prior meaningful swing resistances (2.31–2.33 and 2.44–2.51), preserving the primary downtrend. Current price is below the likely 20D and 50D moving averages, keeping the dominant regime bearish.
• Near-term (Daily last week): Bounce from ~1.95 (Nov 21/22) to ~2.28 (Nov 24/27) produced a counter-trend rally. The last three sessions show waning upside momentum and failure to reclaim the 2.23–2.26 supply, suggesting a bear-flag/rising-channel break.
• Intraday (Hourly today): Sequence of higher highs into 15:00 UTC (2.2628) followed by a decisive lower high and selloff down to 2.1615 at 18:00, then a weak rebound and close near 2.183. Price is consolidating under broken supports (2.20–2.22), characteristic of a relief-bounce-then-fade pattern.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance/supply: • 2.21–2.23: Former intraday support, now resistance; hourly Kijun/Tenkan zone; 38.2–50% retrace of the 2.2628→2.1615 drop; intraday volume built here during distribution hours. • 2.26–2.28: Session high and recent swing high; 61.8% retrace region of the intraday downswing; failure point of the bounce. • 2.31–2.33: Daily swing pivot and likely 26D Ichimoku Kijun zone; larger TF sell area.
• Support/demand: • 2.16–2.17: Today’s intraday low cluster and sticky support; first test likely to bounce, second test vulnerable. • 2.10–2.12: 38.2% retrace of Nov 21 low (1.8349) to 2.2628 high; strong daily pivot cluster. • 2.05–2.00: 50–61.8% of the 1.8349→2.2628 range, aligns with mid-Nov congestion and psychological round numbers.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 46 (est.): Below 50, slightly bearish-neutral. Not oversold; room for further downside before exhaustion.
• Hourly RSI: Spent much of the US session sub-50, with a minor bullish divergence at 18:00 (lower price low vs. likely higher RSI), consistent with a small relief bounce but not a trend reversal.
• MACD (Daily): The 12/26 differential likely still negative; histogram rolled over after the short bounce, indicating loss of upward momentum.
• Stochastics (Hourly): Likely cycling up off intraday lows; expected to stall into 2.20–2.22 where resistance density increases.

4. Moving averages and bands

• Daily EMA9/EMA21: Price is below the 21EMA and near/just below the 9EMA. The 9 under 21 and both sloping down sustains bearish bias. Any pop into the 9/21 ribbon is a tactical sell area.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid-band near ~2.30 (est.); lower band near ~2.10–2.15. Price currently in the lower third of the band—room to tag or undercut the lower band if selling persists; not at an extreme, so no strong mean-reversion signal yet.
• ATR(14D) (est.): ~0.12–0.15. Today’s range (~0.10) fits a compressed but still active session. A 24h move of ±0.12 is reasonable; skewed lower given structure.

5. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud, Tenkan, and Kijun; bearish regime. Kijun resistance projected near 2.32–2.34; cloud above price, thick enough to contain rallies.
• Hourly: Price under a thin but downward-sloping cloud; Tenkan/Kijun around 2.20–2.22. Expect initial bounce to fade there if sellers are in control.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: Nov 21 low (1.8349) to Nov 28 high (2.2628): • 38.2%: ~2.099 • 50%: ~2.049 • 61.8%: ~1.998 Current 2.182 is only a shallow retrace; more downside would be typical to at least 2.10–2.05 if the counter-trend rally is to reset.
• Intraday downswing (2.2628 → 2.1615): • 38.2%: ~2.1997 • 50%: ~2.2121 • 61.8%: ~2.2245 This aligns perfectly with the 2.20–2.22 sell zone.

7. Volume/flow

• Daily: Post-capitulation bounce volumes have been receding; no decisive accumulation footprint. Large sell volumes on down days earlier in Nov remain the dominant signature.
• Intraday: Heaviest turnover during the 15:00 UTC push/fade and subsequent drop suggests distribution into strength and supply defending 2.25–2.26.

8. Volatility, VWAP, and mean reversion

• Intraday price hugged lower Bollinger bands post-16:00 UTC; a mild mean-reversion bounce is probable toward 2.20–2.22. However, with daily momentum sub-50 RSI and price below key MAs, mean reversion likely stalls at resistance.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag/rising channel from ~1.95 to ~2.26 has likely broken lower intraday. Today’s failure to reclaim 2.22 reinforces pattern completion, targeting the 2.10–2.05 zone over the coming sessions.
• Wyckoff lens: Selling climax (Nov 21) → automatic rally (Nov 24) → secondary tests (Nov 25–27) → today’s sign of weakness below intraday supports. A proper accumulation would need a spring and more testing; not yet present.

10. DMI/ADX (est.)

• On daily, -DI likely above +DI with a moderate ADX; trend strength is not extreme but sufficient to favor trend-continuation setups on bounces.

11. Scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (55%): Relief bounce toward 2.20–2.22 meets supply; rollover toward 2.16 and extension to 2.11–2.12. Close nearer the lower half of day’s range.
• Bullish alt (25%): Strong reclaim of 2.224–2.235 (61.8% intraday retrace and hourly cloud top), squeeze into 2.25–2.26; daily sellers likely reassert there. A sustained hold above 2.26 would be needed to shift bias.
• Bearish alt (20%): Early failure at/under 2.20 leads to a straight move to 2.12–2.10, with possible weekend-liquidity wick to ~2.05–2.03 before rebound.

12. Trade plan logic

• Edge: Shorting into confluence resistance (prior support flip + Fib 38.2–50% + hourly Ichimoku base + intraday distribution) with downside room to daily lower band and Fibonacci cluster near 2.10.
• Execution: Place a patient sell limit near 2.212 (50% retrace of today’s downswing). First trouble area 2.16–2.17; main target 2.108 to front-run 2.10 with liquidity.
• Risk cue (not part of requested fields): A protective stop could be set above 2.236–2.245 (above 61.8% intraday retrace and under the session high), keeping R multiple attractive vs. a ~0.10–0.12 target.

Bottom line Given the intact daily downtrend, sub-50 RSI, intraday breakdown, and clean confluence of resistance at 2.20–2.22, probability favors selling a bounce with targets toward 2.11. A decisive reclaim/hold above 2.24–2.26 would invalidate the short-term bearish setup.