XRP Faces Further Downside: Bears Eye $2.12 as Supports Break

1. Trend Analysis (Multi-Timeframe)

• Daily Chart (Macro):
  • Over the past 90 days, XRP experienced significant bullish runs, notably from Mar 19-Mar 31 and May 8-May 15, where price surged from ~$2.29 to over $2.64. However, these were followed by abrupt pullbacks, forming lower highs since May 12, 2025.
  • Since early June, price has been in a mild but persistent downtrend: lower highs (2.32 ➔ 2.30 ➔ 2.27) and lower lows (2.23 ➔ 2.20 ➔ 2.17), climaxing with today’s drop to $2.179. Recent volatilities, including sharp dips below $2.14, show sellers remain in control.
• Hourly Chart (Micro):
  • Over the last 24 hours, XRP attempted to rally above $2.25 but faced repeated rejection. Price action stair-stepped downward — a hallmark of active distribution. Notably, strong sell candles appeared 19:00-20:59 UTC, pushing price below soft support at $2.21 and flipping $2.18 from demand to supply.

2. Volume & Order Flow Analysis

• High Volume on Down Days:
  • Several high volume red candles on the daily (~June 5th & June 12th) into local bottoms suggest capitulation selling is not quite behind us — suggesting ongoing supply.
• Decreasing Volume on Upticks:
  • Failed rallies (e.g., June 9-10) emerge on waning volume – classic exhaustion.
• 19:00-21:00 (Intraday Today):
  • $2.207 → $2.179: Two consecutive high-volume, high-velocity moves, confirming active selling right at prior support.

3. Technical Indicators

A. Moving Averages

• Short-Term MAs (EMA10, EMA21): Both are sloping downward and have just crossed below the EMA50 on the daily. Price is now trading firmly below all short/intermediate MAs (approx, 2.23-2.25 region).
• Long-Term MAs (EMA100, SMA200): While these remain below price, they are flattening, indicating loss of medium-term bullish momentum.

B. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI: Readings have slipped from 65 (May rally highs) to ~40, with each bounce being weaker — currently not oversold, meaning further room for downside before reversal.
• Hourly RSI: Flirting with oversold (<30), but the absence of bullish divergence in recent hours means sellers retain strength.

C. MACD

• Daily MACD: Bearish crossover on June 11, still expanding negatively. Histogram is widening, signaling momentum to the downside.
• Hourly MACD: Also negative; the rate of change is flattening slightly, possibly hinting at a brief pause but not reversal.

D. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Bands are widening. Price is currently pressing against the lower band, but has not printed evidence of a volatility spike reversal like a hammer or engulfing candle.
• Hourly: Bands confirm current move is not yet overextended — more downside possible before mean reversion.

4. Chart Patterns

• Double Top (June 9 and June 12, $2.32 region): Confirmed by breakdown below $2.23 neckline.
• Bear Flags: Several formed since May 22; each led to measured moves downward. Most recent breakdown from sub-$2.23 flags aligns with $2.14-$2.17 technical target.
• Micro Support/Resistance Flip: $2.18 was support throughout early June, now broken decisively — likely to act as immediate resistance.

5. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From May rally low ~$1.91 to June high ~$2.64)

• Key Supports: The 38.2% ($2.32), 50% ($2.275), and 61.8% ($2.17) retracement levels are in play. XRP decisively broke the 50% and is now resting just above 61.8%, typically the last line of major support. Below $2.17, next support is at $2.10-$2.12

6. Support/Resistance Zones

• Support: $2.170 (current), $2.140 (previous capitulation low), $2.090 (May swing lows)
• Resistance: $2.210-$2.230 (prior support, now resistance)

7. Sentiment & Wyckoff Analysis

• Distribution Phase Observed: Volume patterns and price behavior since May argue XRP is in late-stage distribution (Phase D), preparing for markdown.
• No Accumulation Signs Yet: Despite high volume on down moves, there have not been price floors with holding volume nor true selling climax with spring reversal on hourly/daily charts.

8. Elliott Wave Analysis

• After the May impulse wave (1.91→2.64, 5 waves), current structure off the top shows a clear ABC correction. The current leg (C) is likely not finished — targeting below $2.14 before meaningful bounce.

9. Volatility Outlook

• Intra-day and daily volatility are rising as price approaches key support; however, large red hourly candles and downside gaps suggest risk remains skewed to the downside.

10. Summary and Next 24H Prediction

• Major trend: Bearish in the short and medium term.
• Immediate outlook: Likely to see a brief oversold bounce attempt, but rallies will be capped at $2.18–$2.20 (now resistance). Unless price reclaims $2.23 on volume, sellers are in control.
• Expected move: Range $2.12–$2.18. Base case — a retest of $2.14 support, potential extension to $2.09.
• Entry: Open short position on weak rally rejection at $2.18 (current price or slight retrace up).
• Take profit: Close at $2.12 (first major support zone, aligns with flag breakdown and lower BB).

11. Risk Management

• Stop loss: Above $2.21 (invalidates near-term bear thesis)
• Position sizing: Reduce size if volatility spikes or if hourly bullish divergence forms.

Conclusion: The trend remains bearish with no strong reversal evidence. The optimal trade is a sell/short at $2.18, targeting $2.12 for a 2.8%+ expected move over the next 24 hours. Avoid aggressive longs until at least $2.12 shows volume-based holding and bullish reversal pattern formation.