XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP Breaks Down From $1.91 Support: High-Volume Selloff Signals Another Leg Lower

Market Snapshot (XRP)

Current price: $1.8516
Context: Multi-month drawdown from late-Oct highs (~$2.63) into a broad downtrend. Price spent Dec–mid Jan largely ranging ~1.83–2.10, but the most recent session shows a sharp intraday sell impulse.

1) Trend & Structure (Dow Theory / Market Structure)

Higher timeframe (daily)

From 2025-10-28 close ~2.606 to 2026-01-25 ~1.852, XRP is in a clear series of lower highs / lower lows.
Key swing sequence:
- Rally peak: 2026-01-05 close ~2.349 (local top after early Jan breakout)
- Selloff resumed: 2026-01-07 close ~2.167, then drift lower
- Breakdown leg: 2026-01-18 close ~1.993 → 2026-01-20 close ~1.890
- Minor bounce failed to reclaim 2.00 (1/21 close ~1.946)
- Latest push: 1/25 intraday low ~1.849 and close/last ~$1.852
Structural takeaway: price is rotating down and rejecting attempts to reclaim the prior balance area above ~1.92–1.95.

Lower timeframe (hourly, last ~24h)

The hourly tape shows a gentle drift from ~1.913 to ~1.889, brief rebound to ~1.906, then hard dump from ~1.885 to ~1.852 in the 16:00 hour with very large volume.
This resembles a distribution → breakdown sequence (support giving way, stops triggered, liquidity sweep).

Bias from structure: bearish-to-neutral, with bearish dominance after the breakdown.

2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Horizontal + Pivot Zones)

Immediate supports

S1: $1.85–$1.84 (today’s breakdown low region; also near late-Dec lows ~1.83–1.84)
S2: ~$1.83 (12/25 close ~1.832; psychological + prior base)
S3: ~$1.77–$1.80 (12/18 low close ~1.808 and wick risk to high-1.7s in a momentum flush)

Immediate resistances

R1: $1.89–$1.90 (post-breakdown underside / intraday shelf)
R2: $1.91–$1.92 (prior daily closes 1/22–1/24 ~1.913–1.922)
R3: $1.95–$1.97 (bounce highs and prior pivot from 1/21)

Interpretation: After a breakdown, former support ($1.89–$1.92) tends to become sell-the-rally resistance.

3) Momentum & Rate-of-Change (price action based)

The last day includes a large bearish impulse candle/hour with expanding range and volume. In classic momentum terms, this frequently leads to:
1. brief dead-cat bounce (mean reversion to broken support)
2. continuation attempt toward the next support (1.84 → 1.83)
The market is not showing an immediate V-reversal; instead the move appears liquidity-driven and likely to be “checked” by a retest.

4) Moving-Average Regime (conceptual, derived from series)

Daily prices from mid-Jan (~2.16 → 1.85) imply short/medium MAs (e.g., 10–20D) are sloping down.
Price is currently below the recent balance zone (~1.91–1.95), suggesting it is also likely below commonly watched short MAs.

MA regime conclusion: bearish regime; rallies into the 1.89–1.92 region are statistically more likely to face supply.

5) Volatility / Range Expansion (ATR logic)

Intraday: the last hour shown (16:00) ranged roughly 1.885 → 1.848 (≈2%+ swing) with very high volume vs prior hours.
Range expansion after compression typically produces follow-through or at least a retest of the breakdown level.

Volatility conclusion: near-term volatility is elevated; risk of another downward probe is above average.

6) Volume & Participation

Daily volume on 1/25 (~1.575B) is meaningful, and the hourly breakdown candle shows outsized volume compared with prior hours.
High-volume down candles often indicate either (a) capitulation (potential bottom) or (b) breakdown acceptance (trend continuation). Given the broader multi-month downtrend and lack of strong reclaim back above 1.90, probability leans toward acceptance/continuation rather than clean capitulation reversal.

7) Pattern Read (Classical)

The last several days formed a tight range around ~1.91–1.95 and then broke down.
That is consistent with a bear flag / bear continuation after the Jan decline.
Measuring implication (rough): flag height ~ (1.97 to 1.89 = $0.08) applied down from breakdown ~1.89 → target ~1.81 (not guaranteed within 24h, but it frames directional risk).

8) 24-hour Price Movement Forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation with retest

Expect an early retest of $1.89–$1.90 (underside of broken support). If rejected, price likely drifts/presses toward:
- $1.84–$1.83 support zone.

Alternate case: capitulation bounce

If $1.85 holds strongly and price reclaims $1.92 with momentum, a squeeze to $1.95–$1.97 is possible.
However, given the structure and breakdown volume, this is less likely over the next 24h.

Directional call (24h): slightly-to-moderately down, with bounces being sold.

9) Trade Plan (execution logic)

Preferred stance: Sell (Short)

Rationale: downtrend + breakdown from 1.91–1.90 area + range expansion on heavy volume.

Optimal entry concept

Avoid shorting into the exact low; instead, sell into the retest of broken support.
Sell zone: $1.89–$1.91 (best risk/reward because it places entry near resistance).

Take-profit logic

First objective is the next demand pocket:
- $1.83–$1.84.

Summary: Trend is bearish, the market just printed a high-volume breakdown, and the most statistically favorable play is to short a retest into $1.89–$1.91 targeting the $1.83–$1.84 support area within the next 24 hours.