XRP Coiled at the 23.6% Gate: Pivot Reclaim Poised to Spring a 2.30 Test

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis (XRP, last price ~2.2133)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe trend: Since mid-September’s peak (~3.13), XRP has made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, culminating in the Nov 20–21 capitulation (~1.95). The larger structure remains a primary downtrend.
• Short-term structure: From the 1.95 low, price rebounded to 2.27–2.28 (Nov 24), pulled back to 2.148–2.176, then reclaimed the 2.20 handle. That prints a nascent series of higher lows (2.046 → 2.148 → ~2.176 intraday today). Micro-trend is up inside a macro downtrend (classic countertrend rally).
• Key inflection: The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 3.13 → 1.95 decline sits near 2.227. Price is oscillating just below/around this level. A sustained reclaim turns that into support and opens 2.40/2.54 (38.2%/50%) in coming days; failure invites a rotation back to 2.10–2.00.

2. Support, resistance, and liquidity zones

• Immediate resistance: 2.225–2.235 (multiple intraday rejections), then 2.265–2.31 (pivot R1/R2 and measured move), then 2.36/2.44 (prior HVN supply), and 2.50–2.54 (50% retrace of the major drop).
• Immediate support: 2.207–2.210 (today’s pivot point and intraday VWAP zone), 2.175–2.180 (today’s session floor), 2.148 (Nov 26 low), 2.105–2.11 (S2 pivot region), 2.00–1.95 (capitulation base).
• Volume profile/HVN: Heavy trading footprint between 2.20–2.25 signals a thick node (potential chop but also a strong base if reclaimed). Price acceptance above this node typically fuels a momentum push to the next node (~2.30–2.36).

3. Moving averages (daily)

• SMA20 ≈ 2.214 (calculated from the last 20 closes). Price is essentially kissing the 20-day mean; that’s a pivotal equilibrium. Closing above often marks a transition to a mean-reversion advance.
• EMA20: Likely ~2.19–2.20 (recent upside bias). Price marginally above/near it: short-term constructive.
• SMA50: Estimated ~2.47–2.50, well above current price. The medium-term trend remains down; rallies face supply at the 2.45–2.55 band.
• Implication: Reclaim of 20DMA is supportive for a 24–48h bounce toward 2.26–2.31, but the 50DMA overhead caps the extension.

4. Momentum oscillators (daily)

• RSI(14): Estimated mid-to-high 40s (near-neutral). It recovered from oversold (<30) after Nov 21 but hasn’t overheated; room to run higher before hitting 60–70 resistance.
• Stochastic: Likely mid-range (~50–60) and flattening; indicates consolidation with potential for another leg up if resistance breaks.
• MACD: Signal line cross to the upside likely occurred earlier this week; histogram positive but contracting, reflecting a small loss of momentum as price stalls under 2.23. Still net-bullish short term unless it flips negative.
• Implication: Momentum is neutral-to-slightly positive, consistent with a coiling phase under resistance.

5. Volatility and risk bands

• ATR(14) daily: Approx 0.16–0.20. Using 0.18 as baseline, a 24h 1xATR envelope projects a probable range of roughly 2.03–2.39 from the 2.21 pivot, with the highest density within 2.14–2.27 for a single session day.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~2.214; lower band estimated ~1.87–1.90; upper band ~2.53–2.55. Price near the mid-band implies balanced mean-reversion probabilities; a push to the upper band would require expansion (likely on a resistance break).

6. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Major swing (3.13 → 1.95): Key levels from low: 23.6% = ~2.227 (current pivot), 38.2% = ~2.401, 50% = ~2.54, 61.8% = ~2.679. The 23.6% acts as a gate. A daily close above 2.23 increases odds for 2.38–2.40 next week.
• Minor swing (1.95 → 2.278): Pullback lows at 2.175–2.148 respected the 38.2–50% retracement zone (2.153–2.141), suggesting a healthy bull-flag retrace.
• Consolidation box: Today’s intraday range ~2.175–2.229. A measured move upon breakout ≈ 0.054. Upside target from 2.229 ≈ 2.283 (aligns with R1 2.267 and stretch to 2.309 R2).

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximated)

• Tenkan (9) ~2.21–2.22; Kijun (26) ~2.28–2.30; Senkou Span A below Kijun; Span B likely higher than Span A, forming a thin bearish cloud above price around 2.26–2.35.
• Price near Tenkan but below Kijun and likely below the cloud: short-term constructive yet still under higher-timeframe resistance. A pop into/through the cloud typically targets the Kijun (~2.28–2.30) first.

8. Candlesticks and pattern reads

• Daily: Post-capitulation long-bodied up day (Nov 24), followed by two smaller sessions (Nov 25–26) and today’s small-bodied print near the 20DMA—classic compression below resistance. No bearish reversal candle; more of a coiling doji-like behavior.
• Intraday (hourly): Multiple probes into 2.228–2.231 that failed, yet higher intraday lows since midday suggest absorbing supply. This looks like a pressure build below resistance (accumulation vs. distribution). The lack of heavy sell volume on rejections favors eventual breakout.

9. Volume/OBV/MFI considerations

• OBV: Recovered from the Nov 21 dump, now trending up modestly; not a breakout, but constructive.
• Volume trend: Post-bounce sessions show decaying volume, typical into holiday liquidity. Breakouts can be sharp on thin books; confirmation requires follow-through volume.
• MFI (qualitative): Mid-range, no divergence warning. Price up without severe overbought readings.

10. Pivots for the current session (classic, based on Nov 26 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.2076; R1 ≈ 2.2669; S1 ≈ 2.1649; R2 ≈ 2.3095; S2 ≈ 2.1056. Current price is above P and below R1—a neutral-to-bullish posture. Intraday tests of the pivot held; that’s supportive for another attempt at R1.

11. Elliott wave heuristic

• A 5-wave decline into Nov 21 looks complete. The rebound likely an A–B–C corrective advance:
  • A up: 1.95 → 2.278 (Nov 24),
  • B down: 2.278 → 2.148–2.176 zone,
  • C up: Now potentially unfolding with projected C=A symmetry giving 2.27–2.31. This lines up with R1/R2 and the Kijun/Ichimoku resistance band.

12. Trendlines and break triggers

• Descending trendline off late-Oct/early-Nov lower highs intersects ~2.28–2.30. A 4h/daily close above 2.30 would break the short-term downtrend line, targeting 2.36/2.40 next.
• For the next 24h, the actionable trigger is a reclaim and hold above 2.229, with momentum pushing toward 2.267 (R1) and a possible spike to ~2.309 (R2).

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Compression then upside break through 2.229 → run to 2.267 (R1) with wicks toward 2.285–2.309 (R2). Close near 2.26–2.30. Rationale: supportive micro-structure, 20DMA reclaim, measured move alignment with pivots, neutral RSI with positive MACD.
• Range case (30%): Chop 2.18–2.23, fading both edges without decisive break (holiday liquidity, thin order book). Close near 2.21–2.22.
• Bear case (15%): Loss of 2.175 intraday leads to a slip to 2.165 (S1) and possibly a momentum sweep toward 2.105 (S2) if liquidity gaps. Would likely require a negative catalyst or broader crypto risk-off.

14. Risk management and trade construction

• Long bias favored tactically, with invalidation under 2.172–2.175 (today’s session floor and just below S1).
• Entry tactics:
  • Conservative pullback buy near pivot/VWAP 2.206–2.210 to improve R:R if the level continues to hold.
  • Alternative breakout buy stop at 2.232–2.235 if you prefer momentum confirmation.
• Take-profit logic (24h horizon): First scale near R1 2.267–2.283; stretch target near R2/Kijun confluence 2.305–2.31.
• Stop idea (not requested but prudent): 2.172–2.175 to protect against a rotation to S1/S2. R:R from a 2.206 entry to 2.309 target ≈ 1:3.3 with a ~0.034 risk.

15. Synthesis

• While the medium-term trend is still down (SMA50 resistance overhead), the short-term signals lean bullish: price reclaiming the 20DMA/pivot, neutral RSI with upward room, positive but modest MACD, strong support absorption at 2.175–2.210, and a repeated tap of the 2.23 lid. The confluence of measured move, pivots, and Ichimoku Kijun around 2.28–2.31 argues for an upside attempt if 2.23 breaks. Risk is clearly defined below 2.175.

Conclusion: Tactical Buy (long) favored. Optimal plan: buy a small pullback into 2.206–2.210 or, for momentum traders, on a 2.232+ breakout. 24h target band 2.267–2.309, with 2.309 the primary TP. Invalidation below ~2.175.