XRP: Year‑End Drift Into a Breakdown — Short the 1.86 Retest, Target 1.81

Executive summary and 24h path projection

• Baseline path (60%): A weak relief bounce toward 1.858–1.865 sells off, breaks 1.850/1.846 liquidity, and extends into 1.81–1.82 before New York close tomorrow. Trend, structure, and momentum remain bearish across daily and intraday.
• Alternate upside squeeze (25%): A decisive reclaim above 1.900–1.914 forces short-covering toward 1.93–1.95 but is likely capped by clustered resistances and the 0.382 retracement.
• Low-probability capitulation (15%): Direct gap down through 1.84 with thin liquidity, quick sweep to 1.78–1.80, then hard bounce.

Top-down technical read (multi-timeframe)

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily trend: Clear sequence of lower highs/lows from early Oct peak (~3.10) to present (~1.85). The November–December leg shows a descending channel with failed recoveries at 2.20–2.60 in Nov and a softer 2.05–2.20 shelf in early Dec that gave way. Price is below the 20D/50D SMAs and well under a falling 200D SMA → bearish regime.
• 4H/1H trend (derived from the provided hourly feed): Lower highs all day (1.9139 → 1.9056 → 1.9019 → 1.8783 → 1.8744 → 1.8706 → 1.8679 → 1.8649 → 1.8612 → 1.8513 → 1.8465) compressing onto flat support at 1.851–1.846. This is a classic descending triangle (bearish continuation) near the lower boundary of a broader channel.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: mid- to high-30s after weeks of lower closes; in bearish momentum regime but not deeply oversold → room to extend lower before a reflexive bounce.
• 1H RSI(14): Spent most of the session below 50 with repeated failure to sustain >55 on minor bounces; dipped toward 30s near the close, consistent with trend continuation after small bounces.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram below zero with a shallow attempt at less-negative bars in mid-Dec that rolled over again; signal lines below zero and widening modestly → bearish momentum intact.
• MACD (1H): Brief positive cross early session into 1.9139 failed quickly and rolled negative; lower highs on MACD align with price LHs.
• Stochastics (1H/4H): Oscillating beneath midline; resets on small rallies fail to trigger sustained upside → trend-following edge favors shorts on pops.

3. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) approximation: 0.05–0.07. Today’s intraday range ~0.068 (1.914 → 1.846) sits at the upper bound of recent realized volatility.
• Implication: A 24h target 0.04–0.06 from entry is realistic. A move from 1.86 toward 1.81–1.82 fits the current ATR envelope.

4. Moving averages and envelopes

• 20D SMA ≈ 1.90–1.92: price below and using it as dynamic resistance.
• 50D SMA well above (~2.2+ given Nov prints): strong bearish separation; rallies likely fade before reaching it.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) on daily: Price is hugging/below the mid-band; lower band slope is down. Bands are modestly tight after a multi-week drift, permitting expansion lower.
• Intraday EMAs (1H): Price spent the session below 20/50-EMA, with rallies failing at/just under these; offers clean short-the-rip setups into EMA/VWAP.

5. Ichimoku (trend confirmation)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; Span A < Span B; future cloud bearish → full bearish stack. Tenkan/Kijun estimates around 1.90/1.98; price far below both, confirming trend strength.
• 1H: Below cloud; attempts to enter cloud failed near 1.90–1.91; bearish Kumo twist persists.

6. Support, resistance, and levels from the tape

• Immediate support: 1.851–1.846 (today’s floor), then 1.842–1.843 (12/26 close), 1.832 (12/25 close), 1.808 (12/18 close), 1.773 (12/19 low). Liquidity likely clustered just under 1.846 and 1.840.
• Near-term resistance: 1.858–1.865 (intraday supply and EMA/VWAP zone), 1.875–1.880 (hourly swing area), 1.890–1.914 (today’s rejection zone; also 0.382 retracement confluence noted below), then 1.93–1.95.

7. Fibonacci mapping (confluence check)

• From 12/10 local high ~2.108 to 12/19 low ~1.773:
  • 0.382 ≈ 1.886; price failed several times in 1.885–1.914 today. Sellers defending this retracement strengthens the bearish bias.
  • 0.5 ≈ 1.940; aligns with 1.93–1.95 resistance shelf.
• Micro swing intraday (today’s H→L): 1.914 → 1.846
  • 0.382 pullback ≈ 1.872; 0.5 ≈ 1.880; 0.618 ≈ 1.888. Expect sell programs to trigger across 1.872–1.888.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle on 1H: Flat base at 1.851–1.846 with series of lower highs. Measured move from the triangle height (~1.914–1.846 ≈ 0.068) targets 1.846 – 0.068 ≈ 1.778 on a clean breakdown. That aligns with the 12/19 low region (1.773), offering strong confluence for a stretch target.
• Channel: Price rides the lower bound of a broader descending channel since mid/late Nov. Continuation within the channel points toward 1.80–1.82 test before any meaningful bounce.

9. Volume and liquidity context

• Intraday: Volume swelled on the 02:00–03:00 pop to 1.9139 and faded on the drift lower; subsequent rejections occurred with lower volume, suggesting supply absorption and passive offers capping.
• Seasonal: Year-end liquidity is thin; stop-runs are common. Bias should respect structure; entries should favor mean-reversion to resistance for better risk-adjusted shorts.

10. VWAP and mean reversion

• Session VWAP proxy sits above last prints (around high 1.87s to low 1.88s), repeatedly acting as dynamic resistance. Shorting pops to VWAP/EMA confluence is favored while price remains below it.

11. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From early Dec, a 5-wave decline count is plausible: wave-3 bottom near 1.77 (12/19), wave-4 corrective pop to ~1.94–1.95 (12/20–22), and a developing wave-5 that often revisits or marginally undercuts wave-3 lows (1.78–1.80). This aligns with the descending triangle measured move and ATR capacity.

12. Risk points and invalidation

• Bearish thesis invalidates short-term on a strong hourly close above 1.900 followed by acceptance >1.914 (today’s supply top). That would open a squeeze to 1.93–1.95 where higher timeframe sellers likely re-enter.

Synthesis and 24h forecast

• Confluence: Downtrend across TFs, descending triangle into support, repeated failures at 0.382 retracement, below VWAP/EMAs/Kijun, bearish momentum with capacity to extend another ATR.
• Probable 24h sequence:
  1. Early Asia: tepid bounce toward 1.858–1.865.
  2. London/early US: re-offer, break 1.850/1.846, acceleration into 1.83–1.82.
  3. If momentum persists, liquidity probe to 1.80–1.81; stretch to 1.78 only on outsized volatility.

Trading plan (execution logic)

• Bias: Sell the rip in the 1.858–1.865 reload zone where intraday EMAs/VWAP and Fibonacci 0.382–0.5 of today’s drop cluster.
• Entry: 1.8605 optimal (limit sell). This prices inside the resistance shelf and improves RR while allowing for a normal bounce.
• Profit objective: 1.808, near prior support (12/18 close) and just above the 1.80 psychological handle; fits within ATR and precedes the 1.78 stretch where bounces tend to be violent.
• Invalidation (not placed in the output fields but critical): A firm reclaim >1.914 on hourly close would negate the setup; discretionary hard stop could sit 1.918–1.922 depending on tolerance.

Why not long?

• Longs fight multi-timeframe downtrend, sit below all key MAs/clouds, and face layered resistance every 1–2 cents above. Reward/risk inferior unless 1.914 is reclaimed and accepted.

Conclusion

• Expect a lower-high failure around 1.86, breakdown through 1.85/1.846, and continuation into 1.81–1.82 within 24 hours. The short offers clean confluence and reasonable ATR-supported distance to target. Recommended action: Sell (Short Position), enter near 1.8605, take profit at 1.808.