XRP Coils Beneath 2.22: Ascending Triangle Tees Up a Pop Toward 2.25 in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish. Expect a topside probe into 2.23–2.26 if 2.217–2.223 is cleared on volume. Base case intraday range 2.17–2.26.
• Setup: Buy-the-dip inside an hourly ascending triangle, with confluence from daily mean reversion and pivots. Optimal entry on a modest pullback toward 2.19–2.20; take profit into the 2.24–2.26 supply shelf.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Weekly/daily context: Price topped above 3.10 in mid‑September, then a persistent downtrend accelerated with a high-volatility break on Oct 10 (flash‑crash wick to ~1.53) and a secondary capitulation into Nov 21 (~1.95). Since then, structure is transitioning from distribution to base-building: higher lows on Nov 23 (~2.05), Dec 1 (~2.03), Nov 30 (~2.16), and now ~2.18–2.20.
• Daily swing map:
  • Key supports: 1) 2.03–2.06 (post‑capitulation demand), 2) 2.15–2.16 (Nov 30 close), 3) 2.17–2.18 (current intraday support window).
  • Key resistances: 1) 2.21–2.23 (Fib/Pivot confluence), 2) 2.26–2.28 (neckline supply), 3) 2.33–2.35, 4) 2.38–2.42 (Fib 61.8%/38.2% confluence from larger swings).
• Hourly structure (last 24h): Tight series of higher lows with repeated taps of 2.206–2.217: a textbook ascending triangle. Flat overhead supply + rising demand line generally resolves higher when retested multiple times.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 10D SMA (approx): ~2.19–2.20, turning up; price is marginally above.
• 20D SMA (approx): ~2.23–2.25, flattening; price is just below, suggesting mean-reversion pull toward it.
• 50D SMA/EMA (approx): ~2.50–2.55, still declining. Medium-term trend is down, but short-term momentum favors upside retracement into nearby resistance.
• Takeaway: Short-term up / medium-term down. Near-term rallies likely to encounter supply into 2.26–2.28, but room exists for a 24h push into that band.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (estimate): low‑mid 40s, recovering from oversold—room to travel to 50–55 without being overbought.
• Hourly RSI: mid‑50s to ~60 through the session on rising lows; constructive for a breakout attempt.
• MACD daily: Histogram has been improving since Nov 24; signal-line cross likely recent/near—bullish early-cycle feel.
• MACD hourly: Slightly positive, flattening during consolidation; a fresh expansion on a 2.217+ break would confirm momentum.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB: After October’s shock, bands are still relatively wide but contracting; price near the mid-band (20SMA). Mean-reversion path suggests a test of the upper band area on a multi-day horizon; within 24h, a drift toward the mid/upper band region aligns with 2.23–2.26.
• Expected 24h true range (ATR proxy): ~0.08–0.12. From 2.20, that supports a feasible target into 2.26 and a pullback risk toward 2.12–2.16 in the unlikely bearish case.

5. Ichimoku (trend-follow)

• Daily: Price reclaimed the Tenkan (approx ~2.19). Kijun estimated near ~2.26—often acts as magnet after reclaiming Tenkan. Price likely still below the daily cloud, so the move is a corrective upswing within a broader bearish cloud regime. 24h objective aligns with Kijun retest (2.24–2.26).
• 4H/1H: Turning lines supportive beneath price; cloud thin overhead near 2.22–2.24 on lower TFs, implying reduced resistance upon a clean break.

6. Fibonacci confluences

• Swing A: 2.65 (Oct 26 area) → 1.95 (Nov 21).
  • 38.2% = ~2.22, 50% = ~2.30, 61.8% = ~2.38. Current price sits just under 38.2%—logical first target/resistance.
• Swing B: 3.13 (Sep 18) → 1.95 (Nov 21).
  • 23.6% ~2.28, 38.2% ~2.42. This puts 2.26–2.28 as the next thick supply shelf if 2.22 breaks.
• Takeaway: 2.22 first gate; 2.26–2.28 the next. This neatly matches structure and pivot levels.

7. Pivots and levels (classical)

• Prior day (Dec 2) H/L/C ≈ 2.1789/1.9983/2.1555.
  • Pivot P ≈ 2.1109; R1 ≈ 2.2235; R2 ≈ 2.2914; S1 ≈ 2.0430.
• Price is trading well above P and marching toward R1, adding bullish skew. R1 sits right at the Fib/structure cap—expect response; a decisive hourly close above R1 opens a run toward 2.26–2.29 (R2 corridor).

8. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume spikes were heaviest on down legs in Oct/Nov; since the Nov 21 low, upswings are occurring on moderate volume—healthy but not euphoric.
• On the intraday tape, the push to 2.217 printed decent volume versus prior hours, with shallow retracements—bullish absorption characteristics.
• Expect a volume expansion (confirmation) on a 2.217–2.223 break; lack of volume there increases the risk of a quick rejection back to 2.18–2.19.

9. Pattern analysis

• Hourly ascending triangle: Flat top 2.206–2.217, rising demand line from ~2.17. Measured move from the base (~0.04–0.05) implies a breakout objective near 2.24–2.26.
• Daily inverse H&S potential: Left shoulder (~2.21 Nov 16), head (1.95 Nov 21), right shoulder (~2.03–2.16 Nov 30–Dec 1). Neckline ~2.26–2.28. Not confirmed; a close above 2.28 would validate a larger bullish reversal. For the next 24h, price is likely to approach but not necessarily exceed this neckline.

10. Market profile / volume nodes (qualitative)

• High-volume nodes near 2.05 and 2.20–2.22; thin pocket toward 2.25. If 2.22 releases, price can traverse to 2.25 quickly before encountering the denser 2.26–2.28 supply band.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bullish (primary, ~60–65%): Hold 2.18–2.20, break 2.217–2.223 on rising volume, extend into 2.24–2.26. Intraday pullbacks likely shallow to 2.20–2.21.
• Neutral chop (~20%): Fail initial breakout, range 2.18–2.22 as energy builds for a subsequent attempt.
• Bearish fade (~15–20%): Rejection at 2.22 with increasing offer pressure; mean reversion to 2.18 then 2.16. Deeper risk if 2.16 fails (opens 2.11–2.12 pivot area), but probability lower within 24h given current bid.

12. Risk management and execution plan

• Entry logic: Because resistance overhead is well-defined and the structure is constructive, a buy-the-dip makes sense to optimize R:R while staying aligned with the likely breakout. A stop (not required here, but prudent) would sit below 2.168 (beneath rising demand line and intraday swing lows).
• Targets: First scale 2.235–2.245 (near/over R1), main take-profit 2.25–2.26 (pre‑neckline supply). Our proposed close price lands in this pocket to realize gains before major supply.
• Invalidation: Hourly close below ~2.168 weakens the ascending triangle and shifts bias to neutral/bearish toward 2.15–2.16 and 2.11.

Conclusion

• Confluence from the hourly ascending triangle, daily mean-reversion toward the 20D, Fib 38.2%/pivot R1 alignment, and improving momentum favors a controlled push higher within the next 24 hours. Optimal trade is a patient bid on a minor dip with profit-taking into the 2.25 area ahead of the 2.26–2.28 neckline.

Forecast and range

• Expected 24h range: 2.17–2.26 (tail risk extremes 2.16 and 2.29 if volatility expands).
• Directional call: Buy dips; target a breakout extension into mid‑2.20s.