XRP poised to pivot higher: Buy the 2.22 dip, target the 2.31 pivot in 24 hours

Executive summary

• Current price: $2.223809. XRP has formed a short-term base after a multi-week downtrend from the early-October 3.0+ area, capitulating into a 1.95–2.00 low on Nov 21 and then rebounding. Price now sits just above the 20-day mean with intraday higher lows, suggesting a constructive 24-hour bias toward 2.27–2.31 if the 2.17–2.18 support band holds.
• Core call for next 24h: Mildly bullish. Expect a range of roughly 2.18–2.31 with an upside skew if 2.22–2.24 is reclaimed/held. Optimal plan: buy a shallow pullback toward 2.218 and target the 2.30–2.31 pivot cluster.

1. Market structure and trend (daily and intraday)

• Daily structure: A markdown phase from the Sep high ~3.13 down to a capitulation trough at 1.95–1.98 (Nov 21). Since then: rebound to 2.28 (Nov 24), higher low ~2.20 (Nov 25), and today’s intraday higher low ~2.15 followed by a push back above 2.22.
• Intraday (hourly) micro-structure (Nov 26): • Session low near 2.150–2.151 at 12:00–13:00 UTC, then higher lows: 2.17 → 2.19 → 2.22. • Spike to 2.249–2.250 around 18:00 with volume, slight pullback, and consolidation 2.22–2.24.
• Interpretation: Transition from distribution to early accumulation. Market is printing higher lows and challenging prior intraday highs. A break and hold above 2.25 would confirm continuation toward 2.30–2.31.

2. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~2.219 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price now modestly above it, signaling short-term bullish rotation back to the mean.
• 50-day SMA (est.): Above price (~2.55–2.65) reflecting the broader downtrend still intact on higher timeframe. The 20 vs 50-day posture suggests a rebound within a larger downtrend, not a full trend reversal yet.
• Hourly EMAs (10/20/50) posture: Price reclaimed the intraday MAs during the NY session pop; 10 > 20 and approaching/above 50 EMA, indicating intraday momentum in buyers’ favor.
• Takeaway: Short-term up-bias while above the 20-day SMA (~2.219) and hourly 20–50 EMAs; expect supply near the 50-day SMA zones on any multi-day extension, but that is beyond the 24h window.

3. Momentum: RSI, Stochastics, MACD

• Daily RSI(14): Likely ~50–52 after lifting off sub-40 readings last week. That is a neutral-to-bullish inflection (from bearish momentum to midline reclaim).
• Hourly RSI(14): Stabilized in the mid/upper-50s after the 2.15 → 2.25 advance. No obvious bearish divergence into 2.25; momentum remains constructive. A reset toward 45–50 on a pullback to 2.20–2.21 would be healthy.
• MACD (daily): Histogram contraction and likely cross-up setup after a prolonged decline. A bullish cross near the zero-line would favor a push toward 2.30–2.39 in coming sessions.
• MACD (hourly): Positive territory after the 17:00–18:00 surge; momentum pullbacks have been shallow. This supports the buy-the-dip approach.

4. Volatility and ranges: ATR and Bollinger Bands

• 14-day ATR (est.): ~0.18–0.20. A +/−$0.18 day implies an achievable upside test of 2.30–2.31 from 2.22 without needing a volatility expansion.
• 20-day Bollinger Bands: Mid-band ≈ 2.219 (20SMA). Price is crossing up through the mid-band. Upper band estimated ~2.60 (wide due to October volatility). In the next 24h, reaching the mid-to-upper quartile of the bands (~2.30–2.35) is realistic.

5. Support/resistance, supply/demand

• Immediate supports: 2.22 (20SMA/38.2% Fib), 2.18 (intraday demand), 2.15 (session low), 2.10, 2.00 (psych level).
• Immediate resistances: 2.236–2.250 (today’s supply cap), 2.26–2.28 (intraday offers; Ichimoku Kijun est.), 2.30–2.31 (pivot R2/Fib), 2.34–2.36 (prior daily congestion), 2.39–2.41 (late-Oct block).
• Read: Confluence at 2.22 (SMA20 + Fib 38.2%) creates an attractive buy zone. Overhead friction at 2.25 then 2.30.

6. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing Oct 26 high (2.6587) → Nov 21 low (1.9504): • 38.2%: ≈ 2.220 (current zone) • 50%: ≈ 2.304 • 61.8%: ≈ 2.387 This places price exactly at the 38.2% checkpoint. A clean hold/close above ~2.22 increases the likelihood of a 50% test (~2.30) in 24–48h.
• Intraday (Nov 26) swing 2.150 → 2.249: • 61.8% pullback ≈ 2.187; price defended above 2.188, then reclaimed 2.22. That’s classic buy-the-dip behavior in a fresh impulse.

7. Pivots and levels (previous day Nov 25)

• H/L/C: 2.2594 / 2.1517 / 2.1985
• Classical P: (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 2.2032
• R1: 2.2547, S1: 2.1470, R2: 2.3109
• Price has respected S1 (~2.15) and is hovering between P and R1. The natural magnet above is R2 ≈ 2.311, which aligns with our 24h target. If price clears and holds above R1 (2.255), a glide toward R2 is the base case.

8. Volume, OBV, VWAP, profile

• Volume: Heavy turnover on the capitulation days (Nov 20–21) and solid activity on today’s 17:00–18:00 breakout candle, indicating responsive demand on dips.
• OBV: Stabilized and beginning to curl up over the past 3–4 sessions, consistent with accumulation post-selloff.
• VWAP (session): Price reclaimed and held above intraday VWAP post-breakout, confirming buyer control on the day. Dips to VWAP have been bought.
• Volume profile (recent sessions): High-volume node in 2.20–2.24 suggests acceptance; once price lifts beyond 2.25, low-volume pocket to ~2.30 could enable a quicker move.

9. Ichimoku (daily and hourly)

• Daily: Price likely below cloud but above Tenkan (~2.16) and approaching Kijun (~2.26). Typical behavior is a magnet toward Kijun after Tenkan reclaim; thus 2.26–2.28 is a high-probability test.
• Hourly: Price is above the cloud with a positive Tenkan>Kijun cross; forward cloud tilting bullish. This supports buying pullbacks.

10. Pattern recognition

• Inverse Head & Shoulders (developing): Left shoulder ~2.16 (Nov 17), head ~1.95 (Nov 21), right shoulder ~2.15 (Nov 26). Neckline 2.23–2.25. A decisive break/close above 2.25 confirms, with a measured objective ~2.52–2.54. Within 24h, the initial push toward 2.30–2.31 is feasible.
• Candlesticks: Strong hourly bullish impulsive bar (17:00–18:00) with volume; subsequent consolidation shows no aggressive supply. Earlier session had a demand tail near 2.15, forming a textbook intraday swing low.

11. Wyckoff lens

• SC (selling climax) around Nov 21 near 1.95, AR into Nov 24 (~2.28), ST around Nov 25 (~2.20), and a potential Phase B/C drift with a spring-like test toward 2.15 today. Structure fits early accumulation. Next step is a sign of strength over the AR high band (2.25→2.28); the first waypoint is 2.30–2.31.

12. Elliott Wave framing (tactical)

• From 1.95 low: Wave 1 to ~2.28 (Nov 24), Wave 2 pullback into ~2.15 (Nov 26), Wave 3 in progress; conservative Wave 3 targets 1.0–1.272 extensions from the 2.15 pivot project 2.30–2.34.

13. Gann and symmetry

• The 1x1 from the 1.95 low intersects near 2.18–2.19 today; price holding above this angle implies the next step is the 2.25 gate and then the 2.30 harmonic. Symmetry of prior rallies (0.10–0.12) implies 2.30 is well within a single session’s reach.

14. Risk management and trade plan (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 2.20–2.22, press through 2.25, tag 2.30–2.31.
• Bull case (25%): Immediate breakout over 2.25 triggers momentum toward 2.34–2.36 if volume expands.
• Bear case (15%): Loss of 2.18 leads to a sweep of 2.15 (S1) and possibly a shakeout to 2.12 before recovering. Structure remains constructive unless 2.10 fails.
• Preferred execution: Buy-the-dip near 2.218 (just above 20SMA/pivot) to capture R:R into R2. • Optional stop (for risk control, not a hard requirement here): ~2.172 (below today’s intraday demand and hourly mid-line). That yields a rough R:R of ~1.8–2.0 targeting ~2.309.

15. Confluence summary for a 24h long

• 20-day SMA reclaim, RSI midline reclaim, hourly MACD positive, VWAP hold, OBV upturn.
• Fibonacci 38.2% at current price, with 50% at ~2.30.
• Pivot math: R2 at ~2.311 aligns as natural 24h upside target.
• Inverse H&S neckline just overhead; even a partial move pre-confirmation points to 2.30 test.

Forecast and actionable plan (24h)

• Bias: Buy dips above 2.18, aim 2.30–2.31. Probability-weighted expectation: a grind through 2.25 toward 2.30.
• Open (limit buy): 2.218
• Take profit (close): 2.309
• Indicative protective level (analysis only): ~2.172 to keep risk contained if 2.18 fails.