XRP: Fade the Holiday Pop — Short 1.88–1.90 Into 1.82 Over the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary and bias

• Timeframe: next 24 hours
• Current price: 1.8465
• Primary bias: Short-term bounce into resistance likely to be sold; broader downtrend intact. My preferred trade is to fade a relief rally in the 1.88–1.90 zone.
• Plan: Place a limit short in the 1.88–1.89 supply pocket and target a retrace back toward 1.82–1.83 support.

1. Market structure and price action (multi-timeframe) Daily (swing context)

• Trend: Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since early October peak near 3.10, reinforced by repeated failures at successively lower resistance bands (late Oct ~2.65, mid-Nov ~2.58, early Dec ~2.21, mid-Dec ~2.03). The structure remains distribution-to-downtrend.
• Key levels from recent daily closes: 2.20 (late Nov floor, now resistance), 2.03–2.10 (early Dec congestion, now resistance), 1.95–2.00 (round-number supply), 1.90–1.93 (recent local ceiling). Supports: 1.86–1.84 (being tested), 1.81–1.80 (psychological), 1.77–1.76 (Dec 18–19 area), 1.72 (measured move potential if breakdown accelerates).
• Candlestick rhythm: Increasingly small real bodies over the past week with closes in the lower half of the day’s range, consistent with bearish control and lack of aggressive dip-buying. The Dec 10–19 drop established momentum; subsequent sessions are a bear consolidation.

Intraday hourly (execution context)

• Today’s micro-structure: Asia/early Europe bounce to 1.88 failed, followed by lower highs and a grind back to 1.84–1.85. Multiple rejections from 1.875–1.880 (02:00, 09:00–10:00, 13:00) carve out an intraday supply shelf.
• Range: Roughly 1.83–1.88 today; value built around 1.86–1.87 with closing drift to the lower end, indicating sellers into the close.
• Pattern: Descending channel/flag on the 1h where bounces are sold below prior intraday highs; a weak push above 1.87 failed to extend, confirming supply.

2. Trend/momentum indicators Moving averages (approximations from provided closes)

• 20D SMA ≈ 1.9446 (calculated from last 20 daily closes). Price (1.8465) is ~-5.0% below the 20D SMA: short-term bearish regime, trading in the lower Bollinger half.
• 50D SMA: visually anchored around ~2.25–2.30 (price has been below it since mid-Nov), reinforcing intermediate downtrend.
• Slope/stacking: 20D < 50D and both sloping down; typical bear alignment where rallies to the 20D are sold.

RSI

• Daily RSI(14) estimated mid–high 30s (bearish range behavior: rallies cap <50–55), consistent with trend pressure but not yet deeply oversold.
• Hourly RSI oscillating 35–45 with brief pops to ~50 on rallies to 1.88; failure to reach bullish ranges (>60) before rolling over confirms weak demand.

MACD

• Daily MACD below zero; histogram contraction suggests momentum bleed is easing but still negative. This often precedes a weak mean-reversion bounce that stalls under the 20D SMA.
• Hourly MACD: shallow positive blips intraday failed to cross decisively; latest bars roll back toward the signal line below zero – classic signal to fade bounces rather than chase longs.

Stochastics

• Daily: low but curling; in downtrends this produces shallow bounces that fail at resistance bands.
• Hourly: quickly cycled to overbought on minor pops to 1.88 and reset lower; momentum sellers remain active.

ADX/DI (qualitative)

• Trend strength moderate; -DI dominates +DI on daily; ADX not extreme, leaving room for continuation after consolidations.

3. Volatility and bands Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Midline ≈ 1.945; estimated lower band ≈ 1.76–1.78; price at 1.846 sits in lower half but not pinned. This favors shorting into mean-reversion rallies toward the mid-band rather than bottom-fishing.

Keltner Channels (ATR-based)

• Price riding lower/middle Keltner on daily; intraday pokes above mid-channel got rejected. Expect rallies to mid-Keltner to be faded.

ATR

• Daily ATR contracted from the October shock but still healthy (~0.07–0.12 estimated). A 24h swing from 1.88 down to 1.82 is within 1x ATR and realistic for a tactical short.

4. Support/resistance mapping and order flow

• Resistance cluster: 1.875–1.905 (intraday supply, 0.382–0.50 retrace of the 1.98→1.83 downswing; sellers defended there repeatedly today). Above, 1.93 and 2.00 are larger pivots.
• Support: 1.84–1.83 (local floor from Dec 25–26). Break opens 1.81–1.80. Below 1.80 sits 1.77–1.76 (Dec 18–19 reference lows).
• Volume: Down days seen with higher volume on the way from ~2.10 to ~1.85. Hourly today showed heavier prints on down legs than on up legs, indicating supply is pressing into bids.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs, consistent with distribution.

5. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; lagging span under price and cloud – full bearish stack. Kijun resistance estimated near ~1.95–2.00.
• Hourly: Price below a thin/flat cloud; earlier attempt through the cloud at ~1.87 failed and rolled back underneath – a textbook rejection.

6. VWAP and market profile

• Session VWAP (today) floated near 1.86–1.87; late-day trade below VWAP confirms sellers had control into the close.
• Value Area High ~1.875 and Point of Control near ~1.866; being below POC at settlement skews risk lower unless price can reclaim VWAP/POC early next session.

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Intraday swing 1.98 → 1.83: 38.2% retrace ≈ 1.887; 50% ≈ 1.905. These align with today’s rejection zone – high confluence sell area.
• Larger swing late-Nov high ~2.65 → current lows ~1.83: 23.6% ≈ 2.01; 38.2% ≈ 2.14 – untested overhead supply. Given the 24h horizon, unlikely to be reached absent a large catalyst.
• Measured move: Height of the recent 1h bear flag (~0.05–0.06) projects a breakdown objective in the 1.80–1.81 zone if 1.83 gives way.

8. Elliott wave (tactical)

• The drop from ~1.98 to ~1.83 counts as a potential 5-wave impulse. A counter-trend a–b–c back to 1.887–1.905 would be typical before another leg lower toward 1.80. This supports selling the 0.382–0.50 retrace.

9. Pattern readouts

• Descending channel from mid-December remains active. Price is in the lower half of the channel; rallies to the median line (~1.89–1.91) often fail.
• Potential descending triangle with horizontal support ~1.83 and falling highs; triangles in downtrends tend to resolve lower.

10. Time-of-week/seasonality and liquidity

• Late-December holiday conditions: thinner books and higher slippage around weekends tend to favor mean reversion during Asia, then continuation with U.S. hours. Whipsaws around VWAP are common; fade edges, avoid mid-range.

11. Synthesis and 24-hour path probability

• Base case (60%): Early-session bounce toward 1.88–1.90 fades; price rotates back to 1.84 and breaks 1.83, probing 1.82–1.81 before stabilizing.
• Alternate bullish (25%): Stronger squeeze reclaims 1.90 and tags 1.92–1.93; daily still bearish; high-probability fade closer to 1.93.
• Tail risk bullish (5–10%): Unexpected catalyst drives test of 2.00; unlikely in holiday tape without broader crypto bid.
• Bear flush (10–15%): No bounce; immediate slip through 1.83 to 1.80; fills take-profit faster but may miss the ideal short entry – reason to prefer limit-in at supply.

12. Trade plan and levels

• Decision: Sell the rally (Short).
• Entry zone: 1.885 (in the 0.382 retrace/supply pocket that rejected price multiple times today; increases fill probability while maintaining favorable R).
• Take profit (24h tactical): 1.818–1.822 zone is first support before 1.80; I will set 1.818 to maximize capture while still above round-number bids.
• Invalidation/risk (for context): A sustained hourly close above 1.905 weakens the setup; above 1.93 invalidates the 24h short thesis.

Why short rather than buy?

• Dominant daily downtrend with bearish MA stacking and price below 20/50D MAs.
• Intraday supply well-defined at 1.875–1.890 and repeatedly defended; easier to sell into known supply than to catch falling knives at support.
• Momentum indicators show bearish-range RSI and negative MACD; bounces lack breadth and stall below neutral thresholds.
• Risk/reward: From 1.885 entry, a move to 1.818 offers ~0.067 potential versus ~0.020–0.040 risk to the invalidation band (1.905–1.925), a minimum ~1.7–3.3 R for a 24h tactical swing.

13. Contingency notes (execution nuance)

• If price fails to rally and trades below 1.838 first, an alternative is a momentum sell-stop to ride a breakdown toward 1.81; not part of the primary single-price plan but noted for active management.
• If an unusually strong bid reclaims 1.90 on expanding volume, stand down on the short until 1.92–1.93.

Bottom line

• Short-term relief pops are likely to be sold given the persistent downtrend. The 1.88–1.90 zone is a high-confluence area to initiate a short with a 24-hour objective near 1.82.