ZEC at $291: Relief Rally Fades Under $300 — Bearish Retest Toward the $283 Fib Support

Market snapshot (ZEC)

• Current price: $291.29
• Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-19 → 2026-02-16) + last ~24h hourly candles (to 2026-02-16 22:42 UTC)
• Regime: Large multi-month downtrend, with a recent sharp rebound that is currently retracing.

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1) Multi-timeframe trend structure (Dow Theory)

Daily trend

• From ~$674 (Nov peak close) to ~$204 (Feb 5 close): persistent series of lower highs + lower lows ⇒ primary bear trend.
• After the capitulation low area (Feb 5): strong counter-trend rally:
  • Feb 13 close: $267.69
  • Feb 14 close: $322.78
  • Feb 15 close: $297.48
  • Latest (Feb 16 intraday close): $291.29
• The rebound failed to hold above the $320–$331 supply zone (seen Feb 14 high ~331 and rejection on Feb 15), and price is now printing lower closes for two sessions.

Hourly trend (last ~24h)

• Early session: push to ~$304.6 then a steady slide to ~$283–$285.
• Mid session: rebound to ~$308.7 (hour 13:00 high), then resumed weakness back into $287–$291.
• This is consistent with distribution / sell-the-rip behavior inside a bigger downtrend.

Trend conclusion: Primary trend remains bearish; current move looks like a pullback continuation after a relief rally.

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2) Key support/resistance mapping (price action + pivots)

Major resistance (overhead supply)

• $320–$331: recent swing high zone (Feb 14–15). Clear rejection; bulls must reclaim to flip structure.
• $300–$308: intraday rebound ceiling (hourly high cluster ~300.65 and spike to ~308.66). Now acts as resistance.
• ~$295–$297: minor “last breakdown” area from the hourly sequence.

Major supports (downside magnets)

• $282–$285: repeatedly traded in the hourly data (multiple touches). First notable support.
• $267–$270: Feb 3 close ~269.92 and Feb 13 open/low region—next support if $282 breaks.
• $251: Feb 4 close ~251.29 (prior shelf).
• $203–$205: capitulation close (Feb 5 ~203.81). Low-probability in 24h unless broad market shock, but it’s the macro floor reference.

Implication: With price at $291, it sits below the $300 pivot and closer to the $282 support—risk is skewed to another test of $282–$285.

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3) Fibonacci retracement (swing low → swing high)

Using the recent impulse: Low ~$203.8 (Feb 5 close area) → High ~$331.2 (Feb 14 high).

• 38.2% retrace ≈ $282.6
• 50% retrace ≈ $267.5
• 61.8% retrace ≈ $252.5

Price at $291 is hovering above the 38.2% level (~$282.6).

Fib read: This is a classic spot where relief rallies often retrace to ~38.2%. If $282–$283 fails, next pullback targets become $267.5 then $252.5.

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4) Volatility + range analysis (ATR-style inference)

• Daily candles in Feb show very wide ranges (e.g., Feb 14: ~267 → ~331; Feb 15: ~289 → ~331).
• Hourly ranges also show repeated 2–6 dollar swings with occasional large impulse.

Interpretation: High volatility favors mean-reversion fades at resistance and punishes late breakout chasing. Given trend + rejection, rallies into $295–$300 are likely to meet supply.

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5) Momentum & oscillator logic (RSI/MACD-style qualitative)

(Exact RSI/MACD not numerically computed from full series here; using price behavior consistent with those tools.)

• The move from ~$204 to ~$331 in ~9 days implies momentum likely reached short-term overbought, then rolled.
• Two-day pullback after failing at $331 suggests momentum has peaked and is transitioning into bearish continuation unless $300–$308 is reclaimed.

Momentum bias: Bearish-to-neutral, with bounces likely corrective.

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6) Volume / participation (contextual)

• The rebound days (Feb 13–14) show materially higher daily volume vs preceding days, typical of short-covering + bargain bids.
• Subsequent pullback (Feb 15–16) still shows meaningful volume, implying active selling into strength rather than illiquid drift.

Volume read: Supports the idea that $320–$331 attracted sellers (distribution zone).

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7) Pattern recognition

• Relief rally → lower high → roll over pattern after a capitulation low.
• Hourly: a failed push to ~$308.7 followed by inability to hold $300 indicates a bull trap / failed continuation.

Pattern bias: favors retest of support ($282–$285).

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8) Next 24 hours: scenario-based forecast

Base case (higher probability): drift/slide to support

• Expect price to retest $282–$285 (Fib 38.2 + multiple hourly touches).
• If that zone holds, a bounce toward $295–$300 is possible, but likely capped below $308.

Bear case: support break

• Clean break and acceptance below ~$282.5 opens a fast move to $270–$268 (Fib 50% + prior structure).

Bull case (lower probability): reclaim pivot

• A sustained reclaim above $300 and then $308 would weaken the short thesis and could reopen $320–$331. Current structure does not favor this without a catalyst.

24h directional call: Slight-to-moderate downside bias; most likely path is down toward ~$283, potentially $268 if $282 breaks.

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Trading decision (spot/derivatives logic)

Given:

• Primary daily downtrend
• Rejection at $320–$331
• Price below $300 pivot and below intraday supply
• Fib 38.2% support at ~$282.6 likely to be tested

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Optimal open (entry) price

• Best risk/reward is to short a pullback into resistance, not at the exact middle.
• Preferred entry: $296.0 (near minor resistance / breakdown area, improves R:R vs shorting $291)
  • If price doesn’t retrace that high, a secondary entry would be on a break below ~$289, but the requested “optimal” is the fade near resistance.

Take-profit (close) price

• First high-probability target is the confluence support:
  • Close (TP): $283.0 (near Fib 38.2% and hourly support band)

(If managing actively: partial TP at ~$285 and runner toward ~$268 on a confirmed breakdown; but single TP requested.)