Zcash at the Cliff Edge: Sell the $700 Rally into a Mean-Reversion Magnet

Executive summary and posture

• Primary trend: Strong uptrend from late Sep ($72) to Nov highs ($735), followed by a volatile, corrective phase. Current price $682.00 is rebounding off a 38.2% retracement cluster ($609–$624) but remains below the double-top resistance near $735.
• 24h bias: Sell into strength. Expect a fade from $690–$705 back toward $620–$640, with risk of a stop-run toward $710–$720 if momentum spikes.
• Key levels (next 24h): Support $609–$624, $589–$595; Resistance $690–$705, $735. Pivot-based R2 sits ~ $710.

Step-by-step, multi-method analysis

1. Market structure and trend

• Structure: Higher highs/higher lows from Oct through early Nov. A sharp corrective leg Nov 10–11 (to $443) established a swing low, then a lower-momentum retest high on Nov 16 ($736 intra) shaping a potential double top. Post-top, price printed a higher low at $613–$624 on Nov 17–18, aligning with Fibonacci support.
• Current positioning: Price is rebounding into resistance around $690–$705 (prior rejection on Nov 10 around $680 and proximity to pivot R2). The cluster $690–$705 is a probable supply zone.
• Implication: Trend up on higher timeframe, but near-term (24h) is corrective/range-bound with rallies fading at resistance.

2. Volume and participation (OBV-style read)

• Observation: Climax-type volume on Nov 7 (spike to $736) and Nov 10–11 (capitulation to $443), followed by lighter volume on the rebound into Nov 16 and moderate on recent pullback.
• Read: Classic blowoff + shakeout dynamic. OBV would show a strong uptrend into early Nov, then flattening/slight distribution on the double-top. No fresh accumulation signal at current levels; supply likely overhead into $700–$735.

3. Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stoch, MACD)

• RSI(14) daily (approx): After peaking on the Nov 7 surge (likely >70), RSI cooled during the correction; with the current bounce to $682, RSI likely in the 58–65 zone—bullish but not overbought. Importantly, a bearish divergence vs the Nov 7 peak likely persists at the Nov 16 near-equal high.
• Stochastic: Would be rising from mid-levels; into resistance zones, Stoch tends to roll. Risk of bull trap if it crosses over near $700.
• MACD: Daily MACD peaked in early Nov, rolled over into the correction, and has been curling up. Histogram positive but lower than early-Nov highs, consistent with waning upside momentum. A lower MACD high into $700 would reinforce short bias.
• Implication: Momentum supports a bounce, but divergences and diminished thrust argue against a clean breakout over $705–$735 on first attempt.

4. Moving averages and slope analysis

• 20D SMA (approx): ~ $527. Price at $682 is ~29% above, indicating over-extension vs the short-term mean.
• 50D SMA (approx): In the high-$300s to low-$400s given the October re-pricing; price is far above, confirming the higher-timeframe uptrend.
• 10D EMA (qualitative): Likely in mid-$620s–$640s, roughly the pullback zone; price slightly above = bounce phase.
• Read: Strong bullish trend intact, but the distance above the 20D mean plus a resistance shelf overhead favors mean-reversion in the next 24h.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2) and volatility

• Mid-band ~ 20SMA around $527; Bandwidth extremely wide given recent regime shift. Upper band likely ~$760–$780; lower ~$270–$300 (crude estimate).
• Current price sits between mid and upper band, advancing toward the upper half. In wide-band regimes, tests of mid-band are common after fast rallies; the recent $624 tag equals the 38.2% Fib cluster and aligns with the notion of returning toward the mean if a rally fails at resistance.
• Implication: With bands stretched, rallies into upper-half often fade short-term unless accompanied by fresh momentum. Supports a tactical short.

6. ATR and expected range (volatility targeting)

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~ $90–$110 given repeated 100–300pt intraday ranges in early-mid Nov.
• 24h implied range: ±$95 from the current pivot suggests rough boundaries $585–$775, but using pivot math tightens that to $610–$710 for the base case. Plan for tails to $605 and $715.

7. Classic Pivots (based on 2025-11-18 H/L/C)

• Inputs: H = $651.08, L = $549.46, C = $624.36
• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = ~$608.30
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ $667.14; S1 = 2P − H ≈ $565.52
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ $709.92; S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ $506.68
• R3 ≈ $768.76
• Current price $682 lies between R1 and R2, often a fade zone. Expect mean-revert toward P if R2 fails on first test. This aligns with a short from $690–$705 toward $620–$640 (near P plus Fib confluence).

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: Nov 11 low ($443) to Nov 16 high (~$736). Key retracements:
  • 38.2%: ~$624 (tagged on Nov 18)
  • 50%: ~$590
  • 61.8%: ~$555
• Alternate swing: Oct 31 low ($405) to Nov 16 high (~$736).
  • 38.2%: ~$609
  • 50%: ~$570
• Confluence support: $609–$624. Price rebounded here, validating the zone. Resistance for the bounce: $690–$705 (front-run of 0.786/0.886 retracement extension considerations from the smaller A-B-C micro-legs) and the double-top region $730–$736.
• Implication: Given the first bounce hit 38.2% and stalled, probability favors another leg probing 50% (~$589–$595) if $690–$705 rejects. Thus, short-term short has edge.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; cloud likely green and lagging. Tenkan (fast) near mid-$650s; Kijun (base) near ~$600–$610; Chikou above price but flattening.
• The Kijun at ~$603 aligns with pivot P and Fib 38.2/50% confluence—typical magnet if price fails to clear near-term resistance.
• Implication: Trend bullish overall; short-term mean-reversion back toward Kijun is likely if $700 zone caps price.

10. Elliott Wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1–3: Advance into Nov 7 peak ($736). Wave 4: Sharp correction to Nov 11 low ($443). Wave 5: Retest/near-equal high into Nov 16 (~$736 high, $698 close) with waning momentum (divergence), setting a terminal pattern.
• Current: An ABC corrective structure likely in progress post-Nov 16 top:
  • A down: Nov 16→17 into ~$613
  • B up: Nov 17→18 into ~$624–$651 intraday, modest
  • C: A larger pullback possibly targeting $589–$595 (50%) or even $555 (61.8%) before the larger uptrend resumes.
• Implication: Near-term downside leg risk remains; selling bounces offers better expectancy within 24h.

11. Harmonic pattern scan (conceptual)

• Potential bearish Gartley/Bat completion zone near 0.786–0.886 retracement of the immediate A-to-B of the post-$613 structure clusters around $700–$715. This overlaps pivot R2 (~$710). Harmonic completion there would bias a reversal back to the $620s.

12. Regression/mean-reversion

• A 20-bar linear regression would slope strongly upward, with price currently +1.0 to +1.5 z-score above the mean (heuristic). Extremes above +2 in early Nov led to swift reversion. At +1–1.5, pushing into resistance increases the likelihood of a fade back toward z≈0.5 ($630–$650) or z≈0 ($600–$620) on 24h horizon.

13. Candlestick diagnostics

• Nov 7: Long upper wick/near shooting star at local extreme.
• Nov 10–11: Large-bodied bearish candles (distribution/capitulation).
• Nov 12: Bullish engulfing (reactive buy).
• Nov 16: Spinning top / indecision at the retest high.
• Nov 17: Strong red candle (supply).
• Nov 18: Small real body/doji-like near $624 support—bounce signal. Now rally into overhead supply. A bearish rejection wick in the $690–$705 area within 24h would validate the short trigger.

14. Support/Resistance map (confluence)

• Resistance: $690–$705 (recent supply + pivot R2 vicinity), $730–$736 (double top), $768–$780 (pivot R3/upper band zone if squeeze).
• Support: $624 (38.2% retrace confluence), $609–$615 (Fib + pivot P + Kijun), $589–$595 (50% retrace), $555–$560 (61.8%).

15. Risk framework and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (55%): Price tags $690–$705, stalls, and reverts to $630–$640; spikes can probe $612–$622 magnetic zone.
• Bear-extended (25%): Failed breakout leads to heavier selloff toward $589–$595 (50% Fib) if risk-off flows or broad crypto softness emerges.
• Bull squeeze (20%): A decisive break and 4h hold above $705 opens a momentum run to $720–$735; only a clean break/hold above $735 invalidates the short thesis and reopens trend-continuation to $770–$800.

16. Pivot-compatible trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Sell (Short) into $690–$705 resistance with a stop above $735 (or tighter tactical stop above ~$715 depending on risk tolerance).
• Entry: Ideal limit short near $690 (front-run supply and R2 at ~$710). This strikes a favorable skew given ATR.
• Targeting: First target $622 (38.2% confluence and near Tuesday’s pivot), secondary $610–$615 if momentum broadens; stretch to $595 if volatility expands.
• Invalidation: A strong breakout and acceptance above $705–$710 (4h closes) neutralizes the immediate fade; above $735 invalidates the short swing idea.

24-hour price path projection

• Expected high: $705–$715 (test of pivot R2/overhead supply)
• Expected low: $605–$615 (test of Fib/pivot/Kijun cluster)
• Expected settlement bias: $640–$655 assuming the fade triggers and bounces intraday from support.

Conclusion and decision

• Despite the higher-timeframe uptrend, the immediate 24h setup is a tactical short: price is rallying into a dense resistance cluster with weakening momentum and clear mean-reversion magnets below. Risk-adjusted expectancy favors Selling the bounce rather than chasing long at $680+.

Note on risk

• This plan assumes high volatility; slippage is possible. If a breakout >$705 is sustained, abandon the short idea and reassess for a momentum long toward $730–$780.