Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) – As of 2025-06-19

1. Price Action Overview

The most recent closing price for ACHR is $10.20. Reviewing the previous three months reveals pronounced volatility, extreme short-term spikes, and significant volume surges in both upward and downward directions. The history includes a sharp rally to the $13 level in mid-May followed by a dramatic high-volume selloff, then a period of choppy, range-bound consolidation in the $9.6 to $11.5 band.

• Recent Range: $9.64 (June 4) to $12.17 (June 11)
• Short-term Floor: Multiple bounces off $9.70–$10.00 region
• Key Resistance: $11.30–$12.20

2. Trend Analysis

Short-Term Trend (Last 2 Weeks):

• The price shows a mild downward slope after failing to retake the $12 area (June 12–13): quick reversal to $9.99 on massive volume (June 13: >111M shares), likely due to liquidation or negative news.
• Since then, the market has failed to regain $11, and is oscillating in the $9.92–$10.54 region, with slightly lower highs.
• Short-term momentum is moderately bearish/neutral.

Medium-Term Trend (Last 2 Months):

• From April to early June, there was sustained upward momentum from lows around $7–$8 climbing rapidly to $13, but momentum has been severely interrupted, suggesting bull exhaustion.
• The failed attempt to build above $12, followed by heavy distribution, signals a transition from bullish trend to a potential intermediate correction.

3. Support & Resistance

• Immediate Support: $10.00 (psychological and tested repeatedly, but weakening as tests increase)
• Next Support: $9.65 (recent closing lows on June 4–5)
• Resistance: $10.55 (June 16), $11.00, $11.40

4. Volume Profile & Order Flow

• The largest spike (June 13: 111M) resulted in a $1.73 drop in one session—clear sign of exit and panic selling rather than healthy accumulation.
• Since then, volume is elevated, but not confirming accumulation (no clear up-days with surging volume), and upswings have been tentative.
• Weak follow-through on bounces indicates sellers remain active.

5. Volatility & ATR (Average True Range)

• The volatility profile increased sharply in mid-May and remains elevated.
• The ATR (approximated) for last 10 sessions is around $0.57, implying 5–6% swings are normal intraday, and outsized moves are not rare.

6. Moving Averages

• Simple 21-day MA (~$10.59): Price is currently under the 21-day MA.
• 50-day MA (~$10.67): Clearly broken and retested from below, now acting as resistance.
• Short-term bias: Bearish as long as price remains below these reference points.

7. Relative Strength Index (RSI) & Oscillators

• RSI (14): Estimated near 43–48, indicating neither oversold nor overbought, but drifting lower from earlier overbought (mid-May, RSI > 70).
• MACD: Most recent cross is negative, histogram declining—momentum is not showing signs of reversal yet.

8. Candlestick Patterns

• Recent sessions: Weak closes with long upper wicks, especially on June 16 and 17, reflecting persistent selling pressure above $10.40-$10.60.
• June 13: Massive bearish engulfing candle with record volume—usually authorities and institutions offload in such sessions.

9. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• No clear bullish pattern: No double bottom, inverse head and shoulders, or bull flag visible.
• Possible Bear Flag: From June 14–18, a bouncing wedge within the $9.90–$10.54 zone, which often resolves lower after a big drop.

10. Gaps and Reversions

• Gaps up in early June have been filled. The gap down post-June 11 has not been recovered—a sign of sellers in control.

11. Market Context & Sentiment

• The most recent surge was likely event/news-driven. Extreme volume flush is often followed by a period of disbelief rallies but as of now, no such clear retracement is underway.
• Options flow and related speculative activity likely contributed to the recent volatility, suggesting that short-term moves can be substantial and favor momentum continuation after failed bounces.

12. Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Levels

• Elliott Wave perspective:
  • The recent spike and sharp drop may complete a 5-wave impulse up followed by a corrective (A-B-C) leg, with current movement in the C-leg targeting sub $10 for final flush.
• Fibonacci retracement from May low ($9.64) to June high ($13.30):
  • 61.8% retracement level = ~$11.13; price is below this, confirming breakdown
  • 78.6% = ~$10.41: broken
  • A full 100% retracement would see return to $9.64

13. Statistical & Quant Factors

• Standard deviation bands indicate price is sitting 1.5 standard deviations below June average; mean reversion is unlikely without a reversal trigger.
• Sharpe ratio for past month is negative due to realized volatility and drawdown.

14. Synthesis and Forecast

• The combination of technical breakdown, persistent selling above $10.40, weak recovery after high-volume selloff, and momentum oscillators trending lower strongly support a further corrective move.
• Price is more likely to probe supports below $10.00, with a high probability of testing the $9.65–$9.80 range within the next 24 hours—possibly overshooting during intraday volatility.

15. Trading Strategy & Execution

• Bias: Sell/Short (momentum, failed bounce, bear flag pattern)
• Optimal Entry: Open near $10.20–$10.22 (current market level), or a slight retracement up to $10.30 for better risk/reward, but do not chase lower if fast drop comes.
• First Target: $9.68 (recent swing low and strong technical support)
• Stop Suggestion (not required but best practice): $10.60 (just above key breakdown level)

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Conclusion: All evidence from trend, structure, momentum, volume, volatility, and statistical models suggests the odds favor a downward continuation to retest recent lows. Only a dramatic reversal above $10.55–$10.60 would negate this bearish outlook. The play is to short at current levels with a target at the $9.65–$9.68 band.

Caution: Rapid reversals are possible in such a volatile stock, so nimble risk management is essential.

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