ACHR: Post-Capitulation Snapback—Targeting the 23.6% Fib at 8.72 Within 24 Hours

Note: This is educational market analysis, not financial advice. Consider your risk tolerance, position sizing, and use hard stops. ACHR is volatile; expect wider-than-normal intraday ranges.

Overview and context

• Trend regime (daily): After an October spike to 13.64 (10/06), price has been in a persistent downtrend, breaking successive supports at ~12.8, ~11.8, ~10.5, ~9.6, culminating in a capitulation day on 11/07 (low ~7.20, volume ~153.5M). Today (11/10) closed 8.45 on heavy-but-lower volume (~69M), suggesting stabilization after the flush.
• Short-term (next 24h): The 11/07 capitulation + 11/10 stabilization typically precedes a 1–3 day mean reversion bounce. Nearest upside magnet is the 23.6% Fib retracement at ~8.72 from the 13.64→7.20 leg.

Price structure, support/resistance

• Major swing points: 13.64 (10/06 high), 11.57–13.81 October range, 10.18–10.42 support (broken 11/03–11/06), 9.86 (9/19 close), 9.50/9.60 supply, 9.00 round number, 8.75 (9/12 high/close), 8.72 (23.6% Fib), 8.63 (today’s high), 8.50 pivot, 8.30 intraday shelf, 8.18 (11/07 close), 8.00 psych, 7.80 micro shelf, 7.20 capitulation low.
• Volume shelves: September built volume between 9.2–9.8; expect heavy supply there on any bounce. Today’s high-volume node sits ~8.45 (session POC near VWAP), marking a pivot.

Fib retracements (from 10/06 high 13.64 to 11/07 low 7.20)

• 23.6%: 8.72 (first resistance). 38.2%: 9.66 (stronger supply). 50%: 10.42. 61.8%: 11.18.
• Given proximity, 8.72 is the first realistic 24h magnet if buyers press.

Candles and patterns

• 11/07: Long lower-tail candle (hammer-like) on extreme volume = likely selling climax (SC).
• 11/10: Small-bodied candle with intraday wicks; close > open, holds above 8.30 shelf = early stabilization/secondary test (ST) behavior in Wyckoff terms.
• Pattern bias: Short-term falling wedge break attempt on intraday charts; room to 8.65–8.75 before meeting heavier supply.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely rebounded from high-20s/low-30s on 11/07 to mid-30s/near-40s now; still bear regime, but rising = supports mean-reversion.
• Hourly RSI: Mostly 45–55 today; near neutral with slight positive slope; room to 60–65 on push to 8.7s.
• MACD (daily): Below zero, histogram contracting toward zero = downside momentum waning. A daily bullish cross may lag 1–3 sessions.
• Stoch RSI (hourly): Cycling out of mid-band; suggests another attempt higher if 8.30 holds on dips.

Volatility/bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price rebounded from/below the lower band on 11/07; today riding back toward the midline on intraday. A mean-reversion pop toward 8.7–8.8 fits a lower-to-mid band reversion.
• ATR(14) daily: Elevated, ~0.60–0.75 by recent ranges. Implies typical 24h swing of ~7–9%. From 8.45, that supports a test of 8.7s without requiring a regime change.

Trend and moving averages

• Price is below the 20/50/200 DMA (est. 20D ~10.5, 50D ~10.9–11.2, 200D ~11–12). Long-term trend bearish. Countertrend trades must be tactical with tight risk.
• Short-term EMAs (hourly 8/21/34): Coiling with price oscillating around the 21 EMA; small bullish slant into the close suggests buyers probing.

Volume, breadth, and flow

• 11/07 volume exhaustion suggests capitulation. 11/10 volume cooled but remained elevated; constructive if it continues to decay on dips and expand on pushes.
• OBV (hourly) upticking modestly; no strong divergence yet, but sellers are less aggressive.

VWAPs and anchored levels

• Session VWAP (11/10) clustered ~8.45; late-day holds above/below VWAP were mixed = equilibrium day after the flush.
• Anchored VWAP from the 11/07 low likely sits near 8.40–8.50; closing near/above it is a modest positive into tomorrow.

Intraday microstructure (hourly data 11/10)

• Higher-low sequence: 8.31 → ~8.33 → ~8.36; resistance cap 8.53–8.58. Closing ~8.45 near the day’s POC keeps upside path open if buyers show up early.
• If early trade reclaims 8.50–8.53, expect a test of 8.60–8.65, then 8.70–8.72. Loss of 8.30 opens 8.18 retest.

DeMark/sequence cues

• After a 9-count style sequence into 11/07 (qualitatively), the initial 1–3 bar upside reaction window is active. We’re in bar 2–3 of that reaction.

Wyckoff lens

• SC (11/07) → AR (intraday 11/10) → ST developing. Early accumulation requires 8.18–8.30 to hold. A sign of strength (SOS) would be an impulsive move through 8.60–8.72 on rising volume.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Downleg from 10/15–11/07 looks like a 5-wave impulse; current move likely wave-4 corrective bounce toward 8.7–9.0 before a potential wave-5 retest if broader trend persists. Within 24h, wave-4 target band starts at 8.72.

Scenario map (24h)

• Base case (55%): Mean-reversion push to 8.65–8.75 (23.6% Fib at 8.72) provided 8.30 holds. Preferred plan: buy dips near 8.40–8.42.
• Range/chop (30%): 8.30–8.55 value rotation; fade extremes. No strong follow-through.
• Bear risk (15%): Break 8.30 → 8.18 test; loss of 8.18 could extend to 8.00/7.80.

Trade plan (tactical, next 24h)

• Bias: Countertrend long for a snapback into first resistance.
• Entry: Limit buy near 8.40 (dip toward session VWAP/anchored VWAP and 8.30–8.45 shelf). Acceptable chase on strength above 8.58 is a secondary tactic, but primary is buy-the-dip.
• Target (TP): 8.72 (23.6% Fib) for base-case fulfillment. Optional stretch: 8.75–8.80 if momentum/volume expand.
• Risk (stop): 8.18 hard stop (below 11/07 close and today’s intraday shelf), preserving structure. This yields roughly R:R ~1.5–2.0 to 8.72–8.80.
• Position sizing: Scale modestly; this is a countertrend rebound trade under the 20/50/200DMA stack.

Confluence for a tactical long

• Capitulation + stabilization, intraday higher lows, proximity to anchored VWAP, rising short-term momentum, and a clear, nearby Fib target at 8.72. The main caveat is heavy overhead supply above 8.70–9.00; hence, keep expectations to first resistance over 24h.

Invalidation and reassessment

• A decisive hourly close below 8.30 weakens the setup; below 8.18 invalidates the long idea for the 24h horizon, shifting bias back to 8.00/7.80.

Bottom line

• Next 24h skew modestly higher toward 8.65–8.75 if 8.30 holds. Optimal plan is a dip buy near 8.40 with a take-profit at 8.72 and a strict stop under 8.18.