Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Arteris, Inc. (AIP)

1. Trend Analysis

Broadly, AIP has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks:

• Pre-Earnings/News Base: From April through late June 2025, AIP trades in a consolidation range: $6.0–$8.5, with an upward bias but no breakout.
• Major Spike: On August 5, 2025, AIP gaps up massively, opening at $14.28 (from prior $9.45 close), an event almost certainly driven by fundamental news or earnings.
• Selloff and Mean Reversion: The price quickly reverses, dropping to $13.00 intraday and then continuing down to sub-$10 over August 6–7, erasing much of the jump.
• Current State (Aug 7, 2025, close: $9.31): The price is now hovering just below previous range highs, with heavy volume indicating a shift in participant control.

Trend Conclusion: The short-term is clearly bearish following the news-driven spike. The sharp rejection and heavy volume selloff suggest profit-taking and increased supply overhead.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Surge on Major Events: 21.92M shares on Aug 5, 4.92M on Aug 6, both order-of-magnitude above baseline volumes (200–900K). Buyer exhaustion is evident—upside spikes but no sustained higher levels.
• Current Volume (Aug 7: 2.27M). Elevated but sharply lower than peak, indicating dissipating volatility after the event.
• Volume/Price Divergence: Despite huge volume, the price can’t hold above $10, which is now resistance. Indicates distribution.

3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Immediate resistance: $9.70–$10.00 region (multiple failed bounces and intraday highs)
• Major resistance: $10.60 (Aug 6 high) through $14.29 (Aug 5 opening peak)
• Support: $9.00 psychological and intraday, and $8.85–8.90 (late July minor swing lows)

Conclusion: Immediate upside is capped by broken support at $10. Most volume since spike occurred above current price, suggesting trapped longs.

4. Candlestick Pattern Analysis (Recent)

• Aug 5: Large upper wick; closes significantly below open—Bearish Engulfing after exhaustion gap, classic reversal pattern.
• Aug 6–7: Repeated failure attempts to reclaim $10; long candlestick real bodies and tails indicate uncertainty and lack of committed dip buying.
• Hourly: Out of 7 August 7 hourly candles, the majority are indecisive or close slightly lower; no strong reversal tail.

5. Moving Averages (Inferred)

(Direct values unavailable, but trend and volatility allow inference)

• Short-term (e.g., 10/20 EMA): Likely rolling over downward as 2-day close drops from $13->$9.31
• Medium-term (50-day SMA): Likely in $8.5–$9.50 range, coinciding with current price; possibility for short-term mean reversion bounce.
• Conclusion: Short-term momentum is negative, and price is under or testing relevant moving averages.

6. RSI and Momentum (Qualitative)

• RSI would be plunging: consecutive down days after a parabolic move usually oversold but not yet reversed—momentum is negative.
• MACD likely bear-crossed after breakdown.
• Momentum: Rapid swing from extreme bullish to extreme bearish (mean-reverting with negative bias).

7. Gaps/Patterns and Fill Play

• Gap Up (Aug 5): The $5+ gap is now nearly filled. Stocks that overshoot on news often retrace toward their pre-gap range. Having now retraced most of the move, some initial support may kick in around $9.0–$9.3—where buyers from before the gap might try to defend.
• No reversal base evident yet: No strong reversal candle, and each minor bounce is sold into.

8. Order Flow & Volume Profile

From the Aug 5–7 data, most volume traded $10–$13 and was met with selling. This creates overhead supply—bounces into $10–$10.50 will likely encounter more sellers looking to exit/reduce exposure.

9. Intraday Volatility (Microstructure, Aug 7)

• Price action: Declines strongly from $10.10 at open to $9.31 close.
• Weak bounce attempts at $9.40–9.50 are consistently sold; upswings are short-lived.
• No evidence of large buyer stepping in on tape; only brief stabilization at $9.29–9.35—suggests purely technical interest, not committed accumulation.

10. Psychological and Market Structure

• Round number $10 is now psychological resistance.
• $9.00 is next psychological and structural test.

11. Fibs & Retracement

• Fib retracements (measured from $14.29 high to $9.00 pre-gap range): Current consolidation at ~61.8% retracement from spike peak ($14.3–$9.0)
  • $12.0 = 38.2%
  • $10.6 = 61.8%
• Having already overshot the 61.8% level, suggests potential for further downside to the 78.6% region ($9.5–9.0)

12. Sentiment/Momentum Flow

• Negative: Most recent event (spike) is being sold, not accumulated.
• No evidence of sustained strong dip-buying. Those who bought late on the news have been punished badly, reducing speculative interest until the pain is worked off.

13. Summary Table

Indicator/Tool	Signal
Trend	Strong short-term down
Momentum	Negative, oversold but no reversal
Volume	Huge spike & distribution
Support/Resistance	S: 9.0–8.85; R: 9.50–10.0
Candlestick/Pattern	Bearish engulfing & rejection
Moving Averages (inferred)	Price below key MAs, downtrend
Market Structure	Overhead supply, no V-shaped base
Intraday Action	Bounces weak, shorts control

14. Trading Plan & Forecast (Next 24h)

• Scenario 1: Weak bounce to 9.50–9.70, meets renewed selling, price revisits $9.00 and possibly breaks below toward $8.85. This scenario is most probable (80%+) given momentum and order flow.
• Scenario 2: Short squeeze rally only if breakout >$10.00, but volume and order flow don't suggest this imminently. Unlikely barring news.

Risks: Sharp reversal and squeeze above $10.20—but strong resistance and supply suggest limited upside.

Final Call: SELL into any bounces, target further mean reversion back toward consolidation range highs/lows (~$8.90–9.00). Shorting now with stop above $9.60 is a prudent risk-reward setup.

Trade Parameters

• Open Short (Sell) at $9.35 (current price; can layer up to $9.50 for partial fills).
• Take Profit at $8.90 (structure support and prior base; covers at the lower part of the consolidation range after post-spike washout).

Summary: AIP is in distribution after an excessive spike. Price action overwhelmingly favors further mean reversion and lower prices in the next 24 hours barring new catalysts. Sell any bounce into $9.35–$9.50. Cover at $8.90.