ALAB coiling under 181: VWAP reclaim and 50% Fib pivot set up a push toward 184

Comprehensive multi‑timeframe technical analysis for ALAB (Astera Labs)

1. Price action and context

• Regime shift: Since late April, ALAB advanced from mid‑60s to a mid‑August high near 199.47, punctuated by a gap‑and‑go breakout on Aug 6 (close ~174.39 on 17M+ shares). That event reset the trend to a strong bullish regime.
• Pullback and base: After peaking (Aug 12–13: 192–199 area), price pulled back to a swing low 171.06 on Aug 19, then began building a higher‑low base in the 171–180 range. The recent two sessions show stabilization above 174 with intraday support forming ~176.5–177.2.

2. Trend diagnostics (moving averages, slope, structure)

• 10‑day SMA (approx): ~181.0. Price 178.56 is slightly below the short‑term average, making 181 a near‑term magnet/resistance and pivot for momentum.
• 20‑day SMA (approx): ~168.8. Price is well above the 20‑DMA, confirming a primary uptrend despite a short‑term consolidation.
• Market structure: Post‑pullback, structure is trying to rotate back to higher lows: 171.1 (Aug 19) → 172.45 (Aug 20 close) → 174.15 (Aug 25 close) → intraday supports today near 176.55–176.73. A decisive higher high above 180.9/181 would signal a momentum resumption.
• Trendlines/channels: From the Aug 13 high, a descending channel’s upper boundary aligns near 181–182. Today’s probe to 180.9 kissed that boundary and faded—clear reference for breakout confirmation.

3. Momentum gauges (RSI/MACD/Stochastic; directional read)

• RSI (daily, est.): Neutral mid‑50s zone after working off prior overbought readings; leaves room for upside without immediate overbought risk.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Bearish momentum from mid‑Aug has been fading; histogram appears to be contracting toward zero. A bullish cross is plausible on a sustained push over ~181–183.
• Stochastic (daily, qualitative): Recovering from mid‑range; supports a near‑term pop if resistance gives way. Interpretation: Momentum has reset from overbought to neutral and is starting to turn up, contingent on a break above 181.

4. Volatility and bands (ATR/Bollinger)

• ATR(14) daily (est.): Elevated but compressing versus the early‑August surge; recent true ranges ~6–10. Expectable 24‑hour move: ~3–5% (≈ $5–$9) given current compression.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Midline ~168.8; upper band ~198–200; lower ~138–140. Current price sits in the upper‑mid zone with ample overhead room before upper‑band engagement. Interpretation: Volatility compressed intraday today after the open impulse; sets the stage for an expansion move. With price above the mid‑band and trend up, risks skew slightly to the upside.

5. Key levels (support/resistance/supply‑demand)

• Immediate resistance: 180.9–181.0 (today’s high/10‑DMA/descending‑channel cap); 183.5–184.5 (micro supply shelf); 186–187 (swing lower‑high area); 192 and 199.5 (major).
• Immediate supports: 178.0–178.7 (session VWAP region); 176.5–176.7 (intraday defended twice); 174.1 (Aug 25 close); 171.0–172.5 (swing low zone and 78.6% retrace cluster).
• Volume profile (recent): High‑volume node around 178–180; lighter volume pocket toward 183–186. A reclaim and hold above 181 could accelerate through the low‑liquidity pocket into 183–185.

6. Fibonacci confluence (recent swings)

• From the post‑gap leg Aug 6 low ~160.5 to Aug 13 high ~199.5: 50% retrace ≈ 180.98; 61.8% ≈ 175.36; 78.6% ≈ 171.2. Price bottomed near 171.06 (precise 78.6% zone), then rebounded to the 50% level today (~181), which rejected on first touch. This is classic behavior; a second attempt often breaks if trend remains intact. Interpretation: 181 is a Fibonacci bull/bear pivot. Above it, the roadmap targets 183.5–185.5 (next fib/supply cluster).

7. Ichimoku lens (daily, approximations)

• Price is well above the Kumo; long‑term uptrend intact.
• Tenkan‑sen (9‑period mid): ≈ 185.3. Kijun‑sen (26‑period mid): ≈ 142.7. Price < Tenkan but >> Kijun: short‑term corrective stance inside a powerful primary uptrend.
• A push above 181 sets up a Tenkan test ~185; clearing that reopens 190–195.

8. VWAPs and Anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP today tracks ~178.7–179.0. Current price ~178.6 is marginally below—typical into the close after a midday fade. A post‑open reclaim tomorrow tends to invite momentum follow‑through.
• Anchored VWAP from the Aug 6 gap day likely sits in the high‑170s/around 179–180 given heavy post‑gap volume. That makes 179–181 a high‑stakes battleground; sustained closes above AVWAP from the catalyst turn it into support and often precede trend continuation legs.

9. Candles and microstructure (hourly/intraday)

• Hourly tape today: Opening drive from ~174.5 to 179.3, consolidation between 177.2–180.0, higher‑low sequence (176.55 → 176.73 → 177.18), and late‑day attempt to re‑test 179–180. This is a constructive bull flag under resistance.
• Daily candle shaping up green, body in the upper half versus yesterday’s close, signaling demand showed up on dips.

10. Volume analytics

• Post‑peak, daily volume has been trending lower—a normal consolidation after a vertical advance. Today’s intraday profile: strong open volume, then balanced. No distributional blow‑offs observed near the day’s highs; sellers defended 181 but without climactic supply.

11. Wyckoff read

• Phase: Re‑accumulation after a sharp markup. Spring/Sharp pullback tested near 171 (78.6% fib). We appear to be in Phase D attempts—seeking a Sign of Strength through 181, followed by a Back‑Up (BU) ideally holding 178–179 before pushing to 185–187.

12. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Wave 3 likely the Aug 6–13 run; wave 4 the Aug 13–19 pullback to 171; now an emerging wave 5 may be forming. Typical wave‑5 behavior: weaker momentum but price extension toward prior highs is possible. Near‑term checkpoint remains 181–185.

13. Risk management and scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base case (55–60%): Early dip into 176.5–177.2 gets bought; price reclaims VWAP and 181 (50% fib/10‑DMA), triggers stops, and runs toward 183.5–184.5. If tape remains strong, extension to ~185.3 (Tenkan) possible.
• Neutral chop (25–30%): Ping‑pong 176.5–180.9, close near 178–180 as market waits for a catalyst.
• Bearish break (15–20%): Loss of 176.5 opens 174.1; below that, retest 171–172 (major). This scenario currently lacks volume confirmation but must be respected.

14. Confluence summary → directional bias

• Bullish: Primary uptrend intact (above 20‑DMA & cloud), fib confluence supportive (78.6% held; 50% pivot overhead), bull flag under resistance, higher intraday lows, VWAP/AVWAP battleground is close to flipping positive, MACD loss of downside momentum.
• Caution: Tenkan still above price and 181 is stiff resistance on first test; volume lighter into resistance. Expect initial rejection attempts before a break. Net: Mildly bullish with an edge to the upside for the next 24 hours, favoring buy‑the‑dip into 176s–177s with targets into 183–185, using 175.8–176.0 as an invalidation area (stop suggestion, not part of the requested fields).

15. Trade plan (24h swing/day‑swing)

• Entry logic: Buy limit into 176.9 (near intraday support and below session VWAP), allowing participation in a likely VWAP reclaim and breakout attempt over 181.
• Profit target: 183.9 (just below the 183.5–184.5 supply pocket to increase fill probability). If momentum spikes, consider trailing beyond 184, but base target is 183.9.
• Confirmation to watch: Strong bid on reclaim of 179–179.5, break/hold above 181 on rising 5–15 min volume; weak scenario if repeated failures at VWAP and a close below 176.5.

Prediction (next 24 hours): Expect a test and likely breach of 181 if 176.5–177.0 holds; upside path toward 183.5–184.5 with closing prints leaning 181–184. Downside guardrails: 176.5 first, 174.1 second, 171 line in the sand.

Decision: Buy (Long) with a dip entry near 176.9 and take profit at 183.9, anticipating a VWAP reclaim, a 10‑DMA/50% fib breakout, and momentum follow‑through into the next supply zone.