ALAB: Entering the Low-Volume Chute — Short the Pop, Target 152 Within 24 Hours

Overview

• Ticker: ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.) | Currency: $ | Current price: 161.47 (as of 2025-10-15 ~21:00 UTC)
• Regime shift: A violent two-day breakdown from the 210–230 area to ~161 on surging volume, with an intraday lower-high/lower-low sequence on 10/15. Price is now sitting just above a thin-volume pocket created by the 8/6 gap-up.
• Time horizon: Next 24 hours (into the next trading session)

1. Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: The stock topped out in mid/late September (252–263 zone) and rolled over through late September/early October. The sharp gap/crash on 10/14 (close 161.55 on 17.6M shares) broke multiple weeks of support in one session. This is classic trend-acceleration behavior after a topping process.
• 10/15 intraday (hourly bars):
  • Opened near 170.5, failed quickly; persistent supply at successive lower highs (170.6 → 167.3 → 164.2 → 163.6 → 163.2) while making lower lows (to 160.52). The last hours saw a fade back to ~161.5—bearish continuation tone.
  • Intraday support: 160.5–160.9 (session low and defense zone). A break opens air toward 158 → 154 → 152/150.
  • Overhead supply: 164.0–166.5 (session VWAP/pivot region) and 168–170 (R1/failed open range). Sellers were active on every pop.
• Gaps and volume voids:
  • 8/6 gap-up from ~135.5 to ~174.4 created a low-volume corridor between roughly 150–164. Price re-entered that corridor on 10/14–10/15. Once below ~160, slippage through 155–152 can be fast due to limited prior transaction volume (“liquidity pocket”).

2. Volume and flow

• 10/14 volume 17.6M vs recent average much lower—capitulation-like but without follow-through buying. 10/15 still heavy (~7.4M into late session) with weakness into the close—suggests distribution rather than accumulation.
• On-balance volume (OBV) would be sharply lower; no divergence signaling a durable low yet.

3. Trend indicators

• Moving averages (directional context, approximated):
  • 20-D SMA: well above price (likely ~205±). 50-D SMA also above (~195–200). Price materially below both—strong downtrend confirmation.
  • 200-D SMA: substantially above as well (given the recent high regime). This is a full bearish alignment (price < 20D < 50D < 200D).
• ADX/DMI (qualitative): Trend strength elevated (ADX expected >25) with negative DI dominant, reinforcing trend-follow-through risk lower.

4. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI (daily): Likely sub-30 after a 25%+ two-day drawdown—oversold but in a downtrend. In strong trends, RSI can stay pinned; oversold alone is not a buy signal.
• Stochastics: Similar message—oversold but no bullish crossover confirmation on daily; intraday stoch crossovers have failed near VWAP.
• MACD: Bearish and expanding to the downside; no sign of a bullish histogram inflection yet.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) estimate: elevated (~12–15). 10/14 range exceeded 20 points; 10/15 range ~10 points.
• Pivot levels for 10/16 (derived from H=170.58, L=160.52, C=161.80 on 10/15 session data):
  • Pivot P ≈ 164.30
  • R1 ≈ 168.08, R2 ≈ 174.36
  • S1 ≈ 158.02, S2 ≈ 154.24 These align with the low-volume zones and suggest 158/154 as natural magnets if 160 breaks.

6. Bands and channels

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding the lower band after a gap; this is a “band walk” dynamic typical of momentum breakdowns. A short-term mean reversion bounce toward the mid-band is possible, but sellers defended every test toward VWAP today.
• Keltner Channels: Likely outside the lower channel, confirming a momentum extension. Reversions often retest the lower channel before any durable bounce.
• Linear regression channel (last 10–15 sessions): Strong negative slope; price hugging/below the lower rail—indicating trend persistence risk.

7. VWAPs and anchoring

• Session VWAP (10/15) approximated ~164–165. All intraday pops failed below/near VWAP—a textbook short-the-rip profile.
• Anchored VWAP from 10/14 gap down likely sits far above current price, reinforcing strong overhead supply.

8. Fibonacci structure

• Measuring the most recent swing (10/10 ~230 to 10/14 ~161):
  • 38.2% retrace ~187, 50% ~195, 61.8% ~203—price failed to reclaim even shallow retracement zones on 10/15. For extensions below 161, 1.272–1.618 imply targets in the mid-140s to high-130s over a multi-day horizon; within 24h, 154–152 is the first reasonable extension cluster.

9. Ichimoku

• Price far below the cloud; Tenkan and Kijun overhead. Chikou span lagging into open space below—bearish configuration. No Tenkan/Kijun cross bullish signal yet.

10. Candles and patterns

• 10/14: Long-bodied bearish candle with minimal lower wick—panic/impulse bar.
• 10/15: Small-bodied candle near the lows with upper wicks on intraday tests—“bearish continuation/doji-under-supply” character. Sellers in control unless 168–170 is reclaimed with volume.

11. Market profile/volume shelves

• High volume nodes from 200–240 above; thin profile 150–164 below current—favors swift moves if 160 gives way. A “liquidity vacuum” edge benefits shorts on breakdowns.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early bounce toward 163–165 (VWAP/pivot P), fails; break of 160.5 triggers a slide to S1 158, continuation to S2 154 with potential extension into 152 if tape remains heavy. Close in 153–156.
• Bullish alternate (25%): Strong gap-and-go above 166, reclaim P=164.3 and press into 168–170 (R1). To flip bias, bulls must hold above 168 and build value above 170; otherwise rallies are sells.
• Sideways chop (20%): 160.5–165 range consolidation, no decisive break; implies more time needed for a proper base.

13. Risk management and execution plan

• Bias: Short on strength into resistance or on a clean breakdown. The “sell the pop” has higher quality given repeated VWAP rejections.
• Entry zone: 162.5–164.0 (prefer a limit sell on a weak retest of VWAP/pivot). If no bounce, secondary entry is a momentum sell-stop below 160.50.
• Stop (discretionary, not part of the required fields): 166.6 (above intraday supply and just shy of R1 168), or conservative stop above 168.2 if giving more room.
• Target: 152.0 initial take-profit aligns with liquidity pocket completion and just above psychological 150; intermediate supports at 158.0 (S1) and 154.2 (S2) for partials.
• Reward/risk from 162.9 entry: TP 152.0 = +10.9; stop 166.6 = -3.7; R:R ≈ 2.9:1. From a breakdown entry 160.4, TP 152.0 = +8.4; stop 163.2 = -2.8; R:R ≈ 3:1.

14. Synthesis

• The confluence of: (a) strong downward momentum, (b) repeated VWAP failures, (c) price below all key moving averages, (d) entry into a low-volume corridor created by the 8/6 gap, and (e) pivot structure pointing to 158/154 next, supports a short bias. While oscillators are oversold, the order flow does not yet show accumulation; oversold can persist in momentum cascades. The optimal tactical approach is to sell a weak bounce near 163–164 with stops above 166–168, targeting 158 → 154 → 152 within 24 hours.

Bottom line: Favor Sell (Short). Optimal entry is a limit sell on a pop to ~162.9; first magnets 158/154; take-profit target 152.0 within 24h, barring a decisive reclaim of 168+ on volume.